B (6:35)
Period between the summer of 2007, when the crisis broke, and 18 months later in the spring of 2009, that something pretty fundamental had gone wrong with the global economy. And that went really just not just wasn't just a superstructure problem, went right to the root of the system itself, that there was something wrong with the system of values that caused the crisis and that it needed some fundamental reform. So that was the. That was the theme of the. Of the meeting. Can capitalism ever be reformed to make it better and to reform it? And I suppose I was there because I'd been banging on like this for the previous, virtually the whole 22 years I've been the Guardian. And people at the Guardian saw me walking around with a very big smile on my face and said, those of a cynical nature said, stop, clock is right twice a day, so you've eventually got your wish. But, I mean, I think there was more to it that for me, there were a number of reasons why I had been banging on relentlessly about how we were going to have this crisis. And the first one was, I'm suspicious of fundamentalism in all its forms. That goes for ridges, fundamentalism. But market fundamentalism, the belief in the absolute sort of power and goodness and efficacy of the market, I think had mirrored that religious fundamentalism and was just as dangerous. And I think that what had happened in some sort of schools of academia was that there was a school of thought which said, markets work, markets work perfectly, and the best thing that you can do is get out of the way and let them do that. And anybody who didn't think that tended to be pushed into the shadows. So the great economic journals were dominated by people of a like mind, and essentially the whole economics profession was dominated by this, what I call market fundamentalism. Paul Krugman mentioned this, I think, when he gave his lectures last year that essentially anybody of a dissenting voice went unheard in that period. There was a sort of sense that it had been cracked. The sort of period from 1975 to the Middle of the past decade, there'd been a period where there'd been a fixed view of the world, that government was the problem. The best thing you could do was cut taxes, free up markets, clamp down on trade unions, give capital absolute full access to wherever it wanted to go, and you would get the best of all possible worlds from doing so. And that would lead to at least the best possible outcomes. Well, I mean, that seemed to be the theory, but it didn't seem to be working that well in practice. I mean, that was the second reason why I was kind of quite keen on talking to Rowan and his merry band of men and women was that I looked at what had happened in the past, and it seemed to me that if those who talked about real business cycles and efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations were right, why did things seem to be going so wrong so often in so many places? And if you look at what happened to the global economy from about the sort of early 1990s, what you saw was a gradual borrowing of crises from the periphery of the global economy towards its core. So the first signs of trouble happened in faraway places, of which we knew at the time very little. So you saw a crisis in Mexico in the mid-1990s, followed by crises in Southeast Asia, in Thailand, and in Indonesia, South Korea and Russia, Argentina. And gradually, these crises were happening with rather too much regularity. For those people who said that these things could only happen once in every 10,000 years or a million years, according to their beautiful mathematical models of how the economy was going to work. The real economy seemed to be working in a completely different way from the global economy. And what seemed to be happening was that the problem seemed to be getting ever closer to the center of the global economy, just as it happened between 1890 and 1929, when exactly the same thing happened, that the first signs of trouble happened in countries like Argentina. And gradually the crisis pushed its way ever closer to the core. And the second half of the sort of historical perspective was that capitalism seemed to work. I mean, the history of capitalism, it seemed to be that capitalism did work better when it was regulated, when there were some moral constraints put on it, when there were some sand thrown in the wheel. And that was the sort of theme of quality of the people who contributed to the book. That was certainly the theme of Philip Blond's essay talking about the need to regulate the markets from a conservative perspective. I mean, this is a sort of whole tradition of restraint, knowing your limits. Zach Goldsmith, now Tory MP for Richmond, came at it from an environmental perspective. His argument was that we just cannot carry on treating the world as though we've got three planets when we've actually got one. That actually there needs to be some sense of environmental restraint. And Rowan Williams came from the perspective that economics, yes, it's important, but. But it's only really part of our entire life, while economics is a very key part of our existence. You can't just have an economic existence and make that totally separate from some sort of moral perspective or ethical perspective. So that was really where all those contributions coming from. I think Stephen Green had. He contributed in the end, but was coming from very much the same sort of. Same sort of perspective. And my perspective was that the golden age, if there ever was a golden age of capitalism, really came between 1950 and early 1970s, when growth rates were higher than they have been since, productivity increases were greater than they have been since, unemployment was lower than it has been since, and the spoils of growth were shared much more evenly both within countries and across the global economy. And essentially, this is a point that Polyani made in the great transformation, really, that the great lesson of the 19th century was that the free market, left to its own devices, was incredibly destabilizing and very dangerous. And you had a whole series of both political and social reforms which attempted to put some curb, some restraints on that market. So essentially, the whole period from 1850 to 1950 was a period of control of progressive interference in the market, be that progressive income tax or old age pensions or welfare states or free state education, growth of trade unions, growth of political parties that represented the working class. All these things actually took the edge of the market. And by 1950, you had a completely different sort of capitalism to the one you had in 1850. And as a result, my view, the system worked much better. A lot of the problems that had been evident in 1929, 32, were actually eradicated by 1950. And you had a much more humane and much more workable capitalist system. The third thing that interested me really, about Rowan's idea was it sort of raised questions about what is progress. And there are a number of. Number of strands. I mean, obviously material progress is important, and we're all very much richer now than we were 20 years ago, or incredibly much richer than we were 250 years ago. And I'm not one of those people who says that it would be great if we could go back to some prelaps area time when we all lived in a pre industrial age. I think the modern age has actually led to incredible increases in standards of living. Life expectancy is longer, we live much longer better lives than we did 250 years ago. But material progress is not enough in itself, very. On its own terms, how does material progress square with resource depletion, with the fact that we are seemingly running out of the basics of life, of oil perhaps, of water and of land? That's the first point. Well, pretty obvious one really. The second thing is, can you really have. Can you really have proper progress when the spoils are so unevenly shared? And this is a point that Lester Thoreau made in one of his books, which was that it's quite feasible to have vast inequalities of wealth. But that doesn't really coexist, that only really coexists with authoritarian systems. It doesn't really equate with democracies, that in a democracy you have to inject some form of equity into the system or it won't survive for very long. The third thing that interests me was this. There does seem to be at the moment a great deal of technical progress. I mean, people talk about this being the third great industrial revolution. So we're going to have biotechnology, we're going to have digital technology. Robotics are going to be to the first half of this century what the steam power and coal were to the end of the 18th century and what the radio and the aeroplane and the motor car were to the first half of the 20th century. But it seems interesting, I think it's certainly a question worth asking. Where is the cultural expression of that technical change? And if there is no cultural expression, does that mean that the technical prose in itself is quite barren? So, you know, the end of the 18th century, you saw there's a great era of romanticism. It's the time of Beethoven, Mozart, Wordsworth, beginning of the 20th century, the great era of modernism in art. Joyce, Proust, Picasso. Where is that? Where is that resonance of the technical progress? So where that led me was, are we actually on the cusp of. Of going backwards? Dare Turner's talked about socially useless banking. We have vast inequities in our society. We've seen and seem not to care that much about them. We have Labour, politicians talking about being totally relaxed, about people becoming filthy rich. But more importantly, I think we've got a sort of dysfunctional global political system that seemed incapable of dealing with the problems that actually led to the crisis. And if you look at the crisis, it's not just a crisis of banking, it's a crisis of global imbalances of a world order where you have, you have one half of the world running huge trade surpluses, one half of the world running big trade deficits. And the money that was rolling around the world as a result of that, looking for a home search for yield, as it was known, found its way into Western economies through their very sophisticated banking systems and actually fueled the asset price booms that I think probably laid at the very heart of the crisis. And a lot of people did some very, very bad and stupid things. But essentially the global imbalances that lay behind this problem remain. So we have a dysfunctional global polity that can't even deal with the things that people really fundamentally agree on. So we've had a trade round that's been trundling on in Doha since the autumn of 2001, which is still not anywhere near being concluded. And yet everybody, every policymaker everywhere, you talk to anybody at the IMF or the World bank or the bank of England or the Fed, you know, you go to the G20, you go to any meeting and you'll find people say we must complete the Doha Round. Yet the Doha Round remains incompleted. That seems to me to be a very, very worrying sign. Because if we can't even deal with problems that seem relatively simple, how are we going to deal with these much more intractable problems, such as how do we deal with the global imbalances, how do we deal with the climate change issue? And I think those are really very big, very big issues. And where we stand, I think, is that we have had the financial crisis and we've had the first part of the economic crisis, but it's quite conceivable to see the economic crisis going on. There are lots of people from Adam Posen to Ben Bernanke, who are worried about the fact that we seem to be stuck in a very low, very low growth equilibrium, that we're not really coming out of the recession, but looming large as an energy crisis, an environmental crisis, and on top of that, I would say a moral crisis and a crisis of value. So where does that leave us? Well, there's a very interesting American, I think there's a historian called Stephen Copeland, he's at the Walton School, I think, at the University of Pennsylvania, who compares.