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Transcript11 lines
- [00:00]
A
Hello, welcome to the Hot Seat. I'm Martin Rodgers, here with Professor Simon Hicks of the lse. Welcome, Simon. We're here to discuss David Cameron's recent speech from the eu. So, Simon, are we looking forward to the UK heading towards the exit or in the EU.
- [00:19]
B
Right now? I'd say no. I think that Cameron has set out what he would like the EU to give to Britain. He'd like there to be a new partnership with Britain. I think there's a reasonable chance that. That we will be able to renegotiate a new relationship between Britain and the eu. He was sufficiently vague in what he asked for that I think it's possible that the other EU member states will be able to give something to Cameron that he can then offer to the British public and say he successfully renegotiated. There's a new relationship that would then be put to the voters. The interesting thing in the opinion polls is that when just asked, would you like to leave the EU? Now it's 50, 50, if they're asked, are you in favour of Britain being in the eu? With a new relationship between Britain and the eu, there's already overwhelming public support in favour. So my expectation right now is that is rather optimistic in that there will be a new settlement, a new relationship for Britain, and that would be supported by the public.
- [01:20]
A
And is this likely to enhance Britain's power and influence within the EU or detract from it? Are we heading for the level of power and influence enjoyed by countries like Norway?
- [01:33]
B
I don't think we are. I think what Cameron is asking for is twofold. He's asking for a new reform commitment, a commitment to reform the single market in a more liberal direction. And he's asking for some sort of protection for the member states that are in the single market but not in the single currency. I think on both of those things, he's actually pushing against an open door. On the first one, I think there's already a large coalition in favor of what Britain is asking for. For example, getting rid of the Working Time Directive. And there's also a large coalition in favor of giving, perhaps through a protocol attached to the treaty or a declaration that says that nothing can happen in the eurozone that would affect the interests of the member states outside the eurozone in the single market. So he's not asking. What I was worried was that he was going to ask for opting out of the social chapter, repatriation of a whole shopping list of policy areas which was being demanded by the euro, Eurosceptics in his party and by Ukip. The fact that he didn't ask for that suggests that I think there is plenty of room for them to give him something. And if that happens, I can see Britain still being, in a sense, at the top table when it comes to deciding policies for the governance of the single market, which is ultimately what I think is in Britain's interest. What is not in Britain's interest is if we get sidelined and we face a choice between being in the single market as a marginal player, which is sort of the role of Norway, and in that situation, I think it's going to be very difficult for the British public and British business to say they want to be in that situation. We may well decide at that point we want to leave the eu.
- [03:04]
A
Talking about business, what is the impact of this likely to be on Britain's economic performance?
- [03:10]
B
I mean, the difficulty is we now have this significantly long period of uncertainty. So business has this, the economic interest of Britain. Financial services, big business, small business, they were slightly different on this. And so financial services and big business interests, they're interested in foreign direct investment, they're also interested in financial services industry, particularly in the role of financial services in the single market. So they're worried that with this long period of uncertainty, business will start to drift out of Britain to the continent, particularly with the way things are developing in the euro. So there is a possibility of that happening. I think it's a low probability event. I think only at the margins does this matter. And I think if it looks like a lot will happen in the next year, and if it looks like Britain is going to get some sort of new deal, and it looks like public opinion is moving in favour of that as a settlement, I don't see why this would be necessarily a threat to British business.
- [04:04]
A
Moving on to the purely political aspect of this, Cameron appears to have come out stronger. That's reflected in the polling. Will that continue over the longer term? Will it make his position as head of the Conservative Party more manageable, less manageable? Will back benchers, as they are already starting to say, will they come up with 2017, why not 2014?
- [04:27]
B
I think if he was not in a coalition government, I think there would be a lot of pressure on him to try and have the referendum before the next election, particularly before the next European elections next June. So June 2014, European elections, the UK Independence Party likely to do very well in those elections, despite what has happened, despite his commitments in the speech, because there will naturally be a drift of voters to the right of the Conservative Party to the UK Independence Party. So in a sense he's constrained by the fact he's in a coalition so he cannot commit to anything before the next general election, which is probably going to be in early 2015 within his own party. The issue I think now has shifted away from Cameron actually toward Ed Miliband. The issue now is for Miliband, leader of Labour, is he going to come out in favor of a referendum? I think there may well be more growing pressure within the Labour Party to say if this looks like this is helping Cameron and the vote, that Cameron has re established his leadership of the party and voters are starting to drift back to the Conservatives in the build up to the next general election. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure on him also to commit to a free.
- [05:37]
A
John Barron, Conservative MP today said that the EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the eu. How true do you think that is?
- [05:48]
B
I think there's a big split on the continent. I think some member states would really like to do everything they can to keep Britain in the eu, particularly some of the East European member states, some of the Scandinavian member states, Denmark, Sweden and they feel that Britain in the EU means the EU speaks with a bigger voice on the world stage and Britain in the EU means more member states in favour of more liberal single market against a sort of French corporatist model. But there's plenty of other member states and political opinions who say actually we'd like to have Britain out, we'd like to have Britain sidelined at least, even if they're not out of the eu, because Britain is holding us back, trying to do what we need to do to shore up the single currency in the euro area. Interesting situation is in the Netherlands, it's a Dutch coalition government between Liberals and Labour. The Liberals, the Prime Minister, David Cameron kept liking to say, appealing to Rutte, the Dutch Prime Minister, to say he believes very much the way I do about this, he's come out very strongly and supportive of the type of things Cameron has been saying. Meanwhile, the socialists in coalition have said they do not want to give anything to Britain being part of the single market is accepting the constraints of the single market, the social policies as part of the single market and actually they might be in favour of Britain being pushed to the sidelines. So I think it's difficult to generalise and I think there is a clear split down the middle of the EU on exactly that question.
- [07:15]
A
Thank you very much, press. Simon Hex, you're off the hot seat.