Podcast Summary: David Cameron’s EU Speech

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Host: Martin Rodgers (A), LSE Film and Audio Team
Guest: Professor Simon Hix (B), LSE
Date: January 30, 2013

Overview

This episode centers on the impact and implications of Prime Minister David Cameron’s recent speech on the UK’s relationship with the European Union. Professor Simon Hix provides expert commentary on the likelihood of the UK exiting the EU, the content and ramifications of Cameron’s demands, the effects on Britain’s power, economy, and internal politics, and how the rest of Europe sees Britain’s position.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Cameron’s Objectives and the Prospect of Brexit

• Cameron’s approach is seen as open to negotiation, not a clear path to exit.
  • Professor Hix argues that Cameron’s speech sets out vague enough demands that the EU may grant concessions the UK public could accept as a "renegotiated relationship."
• Public opinion is nuanced.
  • Overwhelming support for staying in the EU exists if there's a new relationship, but the country is split if asked about leaving outright.
  • Quote:
    • “He was sufficiently vague in what he asked for that I think it’s possible that the other EU member states will be able to give something to Cameron that he can then offer to the British public and say he successfully renegotiated.…” – Simon Hix [00:39]

2. Britain’s Influence Within the EU

• Cameron is pushing on 'open doors' regarding single market reforms and protections for non-eurozone members.
• No significant push for major 'opt-outs' from core EU policies, implying a chance for the UK to maintain influence rather than become isolated like Norway.
• Risk of marginalization exists only if demands escalate or the UK is sidelined.
  • Quote:
    • “What is not in Britain’s interest is if we get sidelined and we face a choice between being in the single market as a marginal player, which is sort of the role of Norway…” – Simon Hix [02:29]

3. Economic Impact

• Period of uncertainty may worry some businesses, especially in financial services and big business, but the probability of major business exodus is low if negotiations progress.
  • Quote:
    • “I think it’s a low probability event.… Only at the margins does this matter.” – Simon Hix [03:35]
• Market confidence hinges on negotiation outcomes and public opinion trends.

4. Political Implications for Cameron and Party Dynamics

• Cameron appears stronger post-speech, but is constrained by coalition politics.
• Pressure for an earlier referendum is checked by the coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
• Political focus may shift to Ed Miliband and Labour over whether to back a referendum, especially if polls turn for the Conservatives.
  • Quote:
    • “I think there would be a lot of pressure on him to try and have the referendum before the next election, particularly before the next European elections next June.…” – Simon Hix [04:28]
    • “The issue now is for Miliband, leader of Labour, is he going to come out in favor of a referendum?” – Simon Hix [05:16]

5. Europe’s View: Who Needs Whom?

• Mixed attitudes among EU member states.
  • Eastern Europeans and Scandinavians value UK’s advocacy for liberal market reforms.
  • Others (e.g., some in coalition in the Netherlands) see the UK as an obstacle to eurozone integration.
  • Quote:
    • “I think some member states would really like to do everything they can to keep Britain in the eu…, but there’s plenty of other member states and political opinions who say actually we’d like to have Britain out…” – Simon Hix [05:51]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He was sufficiently vague in what he asked for that I think it’s possible that the other EU member states will be able to give something to Cameron…” – Simon Hix [00:39]
• “If we get sidelined and we face a choice between being in the single market as a marginal player, which is sort of the role of Norway…” – Simon Hix [02:29]
• “I think only at the margins does this matter. And I think if it looks like a lot will happen in the next year, and if it looks like Britain is going to get some sort of new deal… I don’t see why this would be necessarily a threat to British business.” – Simon Hix [03:35]
• “The issue now is for Miliband, leader of Labour, is he going to come out in favor of a referendum?” – Simon Hix [05:16]
• “There is a clear split down the middle of the EU on exactly that question.” – Simon Hix [07:00]

Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–01:19: Introduction and Cameron’s EU speech – is Brexit likely?
• 01:19–03:03: UK’s future influence in the EU, Norway comparison
• 03:03–04:04: Economic implications and business sentiment
• 04:04–05:36: Political fallout – impact on Cameron, Conservative Party, and Labour response
• 05:36–07:14: EU perspectives – does Europe want or need the UK?
• 07:14: Wrap-up and closing remarks

Tone and Language

Throughout the discussion, Simon Hix adopts an analytical and optimistic tone, emphasizing pragmatic possibilities for negotiation and downplaying more dramatic fears of Brexit. The conversation is direct, reflective, and balanced, with practical examples and references to polling and party politics.