LSE: Public Lectures and Events

Episode: Dr Jill Stuart discusses the recent Virgin Galactic tragedy
Date: November 12, 2014
Host: Martin Rogers (A)
Guest: Dr. Jill Stuart (B)

Episode Overview

In this timely episode, Dr. Jill Stuart, an expert in space policy and law, joins Martin Rogers to unpack the fallout and broader ramifications of the recent Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo tragedy in the Mojave Desert. The discussion covers the specifics of the accident, commercial and legal implications for space tourism, and the context of other recent mishaps in the rapidly developing field of private and commercial space flight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Details and Current Understanding of the Crash

• Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo crashed during a test flight on the previous Friday.
  • One pilot was killed; the other ejected and survived with serious injuries.
  • Initial speculation focused on the fuel as the cause, but current reports point to a malfunction with the “feathering device,” a system designed to slow the vehicle during descent.
  • Official investigations are expected to take around a year.

  “It looks like now it was this feathering device that caused the crash. Having said that, the full report is meant to take about a year to complete…”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [00:32]

2. Impact on Virgin Galactic and Commercial Space Flight

• Project Setbacks and Public Perception:

  • Early predictions suggested this could be “the end” for Virgin Galactic.
  • Richard Branson remains committed; another prototype is expected to be flight-ready within six months.
  • Limited fallout: only 20 of over 700 ticket-holders have requested refunds.
  • The main outcome is further delay to the long-postponed commercial space tourism timeline.

  “...they seem determined at this point to carry on.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [01:21]

  • Industry Context:
    • SpaceX continues to develop commercial orbital flight for NASA with a target of 2018.
    • Space tourism in orbital capacity dates back to 2001 (Space Adventures: $10 million per ticket and only seven travelers).
    • Virgin Galactic’s model is suborbital (4–5 minutes of weightlessness, not reaching orbit) at a lower but still high price point ($250,000).

    “So what we’re talking about here is this new model of space tourism... You don't actually enter into orbit. And at $250,000, it's still very expensive. But it’s cheaper than the other version...”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [02:37]

3. Legal Implications for Space Flight

• Airspace vs. Outer Space:
  • The Outer Space Treaty (1967): outer space is neutral; airspace is sovereign to nations beneath.
  • The exact border between airspace and outer space remains undefined.
  • Suborbital vehicles like SpaceShipTwo blur this boundary and create regulatory ambiguity.
  • Possible approaches:
    • A spatial boundary (commonly 62 miles or 100km).
    • NASA’s definition: above 50 miles qualifies as “astronaut.”
    • A functionalist approach: vehicles governed by aviation law due to their purpose and operations.

    “The thing is, it never defined where airspace ends and outer space begins. Now, for decades, it didn’t really matter... But objects such as these Virgin Galactic planes cross over into that...”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [03:25] “...until the technology really pushes the international community to have to make a decision about this, we won’t sort of settle on a definition, but it’s becoming more and more pressing.”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [04:30]

4. Recent Setbacks in Commercial Space Activity

• Industry-wide Challenges:
  • The Virgin Galactic crash was preceded by an explosion of a commercial payload headed to the ISS—a difficult period for space activity.
  • Dr. Stuart argues that such risks and failures are not unique to private companies; government programs have long faced similar dangers.

    “It is unfortunate to have two explosions, but I don’t think it’s necessarily to do with commercialization. Governments have certainly had plenty of their own mishaps with space activities. It’s just the fact that space is difficult.”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [05:04]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On risk and the nature of space activity:

  “It’s just the fact that space is difficult. We’re dealing with rocket fuel, we’re dealing with trying to escape the Earth's gravity, and that’s tough.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [05:10]

• On the shifting landscape of space tourism:

  “We’re sort of in the process of re-evaluating this suborbital space tourism.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [02:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:13–00:55]: What happened in the crash and preliminary findings
• [01:03–03:05]: Implications for Virgin Galactic, industry delays, context of space tourism and competitors
• [03:13–04:46]: Legal frameworks and the airspace/outer space boundary debate
• [04:58–05:24]: Broader industry impact and robust defense of commercial space activities

Concluding Remarks

Dr. Jill Stuart provided a nuanced and accessible analysis of the Virgin Galactic tragedy, situating it within the broader landscape of commercial space flight’s technological, regulatory, and cultural evolution. While the setbacks are significant, she emphasizes the maturity and resilience of the sector, as well as the enduring complexity of space as an environment for both private and governmental actors.