Dr Jill Stuart discusses the recent Virgin Galactic tragedy

Summary

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LSE: Public Lectures and Events

Episode: Dr Jill Stuart discusses the recent Virgin Galactic tragedy
Date: November 12, 2014
Host: Martin Rogers (A)
Guest: Dr. Jill Stuart (B)

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Episode Overview

In this timely episode, Dr. Jill Stuart, an expert in space policy and law, joins Martin Rogers to unpack the fallout and broader ramifications of the recent Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo tragedy in the Mojave Desert. The discussion covers the specifics of the accident, commercial and legal implications for space tourism, and the context of other recent mishaps in the rapidly developing field of private and commercial space flight.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Details and Current Understanding of the Crash

• Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo crashed during a test flight on the previous Friday.
  • One pilot was killed; the other ejected and survived with serious injuries.
  • Initial speculation focused on the fuel as the cause, but current reports point to a malfunction with the “feathering device,” a system designed to slow the vehicle during descent.
  • Official investigations are expected to take around a year.

  “It looks like now it was this feathering device that caused the crash. Having said that, the full report is meant to take about a year to complete…”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [00:32]

2. Impact on Virgin Galactic and Commercial Space Flight

• Project Setbacks and Public Perception:

  • Early predictions suggested this could be “the end” for Virgin Galactic.
  • Richard Branson remains committed; another prototype is expected to be flight-ready within six months.
  • Limited fallout: only 20 of over 700 ticket-holders have requested refunds.
  • The main outcome is further delay to the long-postponed commercial space tourism timeline.

  “...they seem determined at this point to carry on.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [01:21]

  • Industry Context:
    • SpaceX continues to develop commercial orbital flight for NASA with a target of 2018.
    • Space tourism in orbital capacity dates back to 2001 (Space Adventures: $10 million per ticket and only seven travelers).
    • Virgin Galactic’s model is suborbital (4–5 minutes of weightlessness, not reaching orbit) at a lower but still high price point ($250,000).

    “So what we’re talking about here is this new model of space tourism... You don't actually enter into orbit. And at $250,000, it's still very expensive. But it’s cheaper than the other version...”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [02:37]

3. Legal Implications for Space Flight

• Airspace vs. Outer Space:
  • The Outer Space Treaty (1967): outer space is neutral; airspace is sovereign to nations beneath.
  • The exact border between airspace and outer space remains undefined.
  • Suborbital vehicles like SpaceShipTwo blur this boundary and create regulatory ambiguity.
  • Possible approaches:
    • A spatial boundary (commonly 62 miles or 100km).
    • NASA’s definition: above 50 miles qualifies as “astronaut.”
    • A functionalist approach: vehicles governed by aviation law due to their purpose and operations.

    “The thing is, it never defined where airspace ends and outer space begins. Now, for decades, it didn’t really matter... But objects such as these Virgin Galactic planes cross over into that...”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [03:25] “...until the technology really pushes the international community to have to make a decision about this, we won’t sort of settle on a definition, but it’s becoming more and more pressing.”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [04:30]

4. Recent Setbacks in Commercial Space Activity

• Industry-wide Challenges:
  • The Virgin Galactic crash was preceded by an explosion of a commercial payload headed to the ISS—a difficult period for space activity.
  • Dr. Stuart argues that such risks and failures are not unique to private companies; government programs have long faced similar dangers.

    “It is unfortunate to have two explosions, but I don’t think it’s necessarily to do with commercialization. Governments have certainly had plenty of their own mishaps with space activities. It’s just the fact that space is difficult.”
    — Dr. Jill Stuart [05:04]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On risk and the nature of space activity:

  “It’s just the fact that space is difficult. We’re dealing with rocket fuel, we’re dealing with trying to escape the Earth's gravity, and that’s tough.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [05:10]

• On the shifting landscape of space tourism:

  “We’re sort of in the process of re-evaluating this suborbital space tourism.”
  — Dr. Jill Stuart [02:58]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:13–00:55]: What happened in the crash and preliminary findings
• [01:03–03:05]: Implications for Virgin Galactic, industry delays, context of space tourism and competitors
• [03:13–04:46]: Legal frameworks and the airspace/outer space boundary debate
• [04:58–05:24]: Broader industry impact and robust defense of commercial space activities

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Concluding Remarks

Dr. Jill Stuart provided a nuanced and accessible analysis of the Virgin Galactic tragedy, situating it within the broader landscape of commercial space flight’s technological, regulatory, and cultural evolution. While the setbacks are significant, she emphasizes the maturity and resilience of the sector, as well as the enduring complexity of space as an environment for both private and governmental actors.

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Transcript

[A]

Hello, welcome to the hot seat. I'm Martin Rogers here with Dr. Jill Stewart to discuss the recent Virgin Galactic tragedy. Welcome, Jill.

[B]

Thanks for having me.

[A]

So briefly, what happened and what have we learned from the recent events?

[B]

So last Friday, Virgin Galactic was running one of their test flights and it crashed. SpaceShipTwo crashed in the Mojave Desert. One pilot was killed, the other managed to eject but suffered serious injuries. What it looks like right now it sounds like it was something to do with what we call the feathering device, which is meant to help the space plane on its descent back to Earth. Initially there were some reports that it might have had something to do with the fuel, which I think would have been a bit more controversial because the fuel itself has been cited as being a potential safety risk. But it looks like now it was this feathering device that caused the crash. Having said that, the full report is meant to take about a year to complete, so we won't have answers for quite, quite a while.

[A]

So what are the implications for this project specifically, but also commercial and non commercial space flight more generally?

[B]

Well, it's going to be tough to say what exactly this is going to mean for Virgin Galactic. At first there were a lot of people who said that it looked like this was going to be the end of them. Having said that, since then, Richard Branson has come out, the head of Virgin Group more generally, saying very specifically that they want to continue. It looks like they have another prototype that's going to be flight ready, ready in about six months. And they seem determined at this point to carry on. And I've read that they've had about 20 people pull out and ask for refunds of the more than 700 that have bought tickets. But plenty of people seem to still be interested in going up if they do manage to make the project viable. Having said that, I think the main implication is that it's going to be delayed. The project has long been delayed. It was originally started in 2008 and they thought they would be fine by 2009. That's been delayed. Now I think this is going to push commercial space flight tourism back even further. Having said that, there are other companies like SpaceX that are working on commercial flight capabilities for NASA in order to supply the International Space Station. They're hoping to have something ready by 2018. And I think that that seems like a fairly realistic timeline. The only other thing that I would mention is that a lot of people don't realize that space tourism has actually been around for a long time, since 2001, the company, Space Adventures, has been taking space tourists to the International Space Station. $10 million a ticket and only seven people have gone. So what we're talking about here is this new model of space tourism, which is the suborbital space flight. So you go up for four to five minutes of weightlessness. You don't actually enter into orbit. And at $250,000, it's still very expensive. But it' cheaper than the other version, the Space Adventures version. So yeah. So we're sort of in the process of re evaluating this suborbital space tourism.

[A]

Are there any legal implications arising both for orbital and suborbital space flight?

[B]

Well, the suborbital space plans are interesting. So according to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the first treaty that was established to govern outer space, Outer space is neutral territory. Airspace is not. It's sovereign territory. So the state underneath an airspace has governance responsibilities for that. But outer space is neutral territory. The thing is, it never defined where airspace ends and outer space begins. Now, for decades, it didn't really matter because airplanes didn't fly high enough. And space objects were never low enough. But objects such as these Virgin Galactic planes cross over into that. What could in theory be that boundary. So it's forced us to, to start talking about how we define outer space. It wouldn't necessarily be a spatial delimitation. So right now we roughly kind of say it's about 62 miles up. NASA defines anybody who's been above 50 miles to be an astronaut. So it could be that it would be like a physical boundary. But other people say that we should use what's called a functionalist definition. So, for example, these space planes would be governed by aviation law because their primary purpose is tourism and because they take off in land from the same country. But it is sort of throwing up these issues Again, I think until the technology really pushes the international community to have to make a decision about this, we won't sort of settle on a definition, but it's becoming more and more pressing.

[A]

So given the recent explosion of the payload bound for the International Space Station just before the Virgin Galactic incident. Has this been bad couple of weeks for commercial space activity?

[B]

It certainly feels like it's been a bad week for space. It is unfortunate to have two explosions, but I don't think it's necessarily to do with commercialization. Governments have certainly had plenty of their own mishaps with space activities. It's just the fact that space is difficult. We're dealing with rocket fuel, we're dealing with trying to escape the Earth's gravity, and that's tough. So, yeah, I don't think it's a commercial issue, but it has been a bit of a rough week for space.

[A]

Thank you very much, Dr. Jill, you're off the hot seat. Thank you.