German Elections

Summary

Podcast Summary: LSE Public Lectures – German Elections (September 27, 2013)

Main Theme

This episode delves into the aftermath of the 2013 German federal elections, hosted by Martin Rogers in conversation with Professor Martin Lodge of LSE’s Government Department. The discussion centers on party performance, coalition prospects, underlying voter trends, and the broader implications for Europe and the Eurozone.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Coalition Formation and Probabilities (00:00–00:44)

• Coalition negotiations are expected to be protracted:
  Coalition-building could take “2, 3 months.”
• Most likely coalition:
  A partnership between CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) is most probable.
• SPD wariness:
  The SPD remains reluctant to join due to poor experiences in the previous coalition.
• Little chance of CDU-Green alliance:
  “The Greens are not compatible with the right wing of the CDU.” (Prof. Lodge, 00:44)

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2. CDU’s Strong Performance (00:44–01:13)

• Merkel’s strategic centrism:
  Angela Merkel “played a fantastic electoral card… she occupied the center ground marvelously.” (Prof. Lodge, 00:48–00:56)
• Limited attack lines for opposition:
  By running a near Social Democratic agenda, Merkel left little room for other parties to distinguish themselves.
• Voter migration:
  Traditional CDU supporters saw no reason to back the Liberals (FDP) any longer.

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3. Weaknesses of the Opposition Parties (01:13–02:20)

• SPD’s identity crisis:
  The SPD remains split:

  “It still has not come to terms with Schröder years... split between a more left-wing side and a more pragmatic part.” (Prof. Lodge, 01:22–01:41)

• Inadequate alternative:
  SPD failed to present a compelling program to distinguish themselves.
• Greens’ stumble:
  Greens polled high “until a few months before the federal election,” but suffered due to:
  • Unpopular tax policies
  • The controversial “veggie day” proposal
  • Negative press coverage, especially on old “accusations about pedophilia of their candidates in the 70s.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:12–02:18)

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4. The Fate of the Liberals (FDP) and Rise of the AfD (02:20–03:59)

• FDP’s collapse:
  Once buoyed by CDU voters, the FDP “did not really show any competence,” serving only niche clienteles and failing to remain relevant.
  • “They basically kind of lost all form of popularity.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:54)
• Uncertain comeback:
  Their parliamentary future is now in doubt at the federal level.
• AfD’s emergence:
  The newly founded Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) ran on an anti-Euro, anti-bailout platform.
  • Earned 4.7% of the vote, drawing from ex-FDP voters and disillusioned former Communist Party supporters—indicative of a populist, anti-establishment undercurrent.
• Double character of AfD:

  “A eurosceptic party... as well as an anti-European populist kind of agenda.” (Prof. Lodge, 03:56–03:59)

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5. Implications for Europe and EU Policy (03:59–04:57)

• Little change in policies anticipated:
  On bailouts, austerity, and transfer union, there is broad consensus between CDU and SPD.
  • “In principle nothing much will change.” (Prof. Lodge, 04:12)
• Domestic constraints:
  Any German government faces limits from the Constitutional Court and public opinion.
• Possible UK-German alignment:
  Lodge expects:

  “A reawakening of a sort of British-German agenda about institutional reform in the EU, curtailing the European Parliament and the powers of the European Commission.” (Prof. Lodge, 04:41–04:51)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Merkel’s centrism:
  “She basically runs a Social Democratic government, which basically means that none of the parties can really attack her...” (Prof. Lodge, 00:48)
• On SPD’s struggles:
  “They never really established a policy program which showed that they were an alternative.” (Prof. Lodge, 01:38)
• On the Greens’ challenges:
  “The great idea to have a veggie day as an obligation was also not particularly helpful.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:05)
• On AfD’s success:
  “They got quite a lot of votes, 4.7%, most of them from former FDP voters. But they also tapped into a populist sort of anti-politics establishment.” (Prof. Lodge, 03:33)

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Key Timestamps

• 00:00–00:44: Coalition formation analysis
• 00:44–01:13: Why CDU won
• 01:13–02:20: Opposition parties’ stumbles
• 02:20–03:59: FDP failure and AfD rise
• 03:59–04:57: European and EU-level implications

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Conclusion

In a brisk yet insightful conversation, Professor Martin Lodge analyzes Germany's 2013 electoral landscape, emphasizing Merkel’s smart centrism, the opposition’s identity struggles, the FDP’s collapse, the AfD’s controversial rise, and likely policy continuity for Europe. For those looking to understand the political winds shaping Germany and its European stance in 2013, this episode offers a concise, expert breakdown.

Transcript

[A]

Hello. Welcome to the Hot Seat. I'm Martin Rogers. I'm here with Professor Martin Lodge of the Government Department to talk about the recent election in Germany. Welcome, Martin. Can you tell us first about the coalition?

[B]

Well, the coalition formation will take some time. It can take up to 2, 3 months. The likely coalition is going to be CDU, CSU and Social Democratic coalition. However, the Social Democrats are unlikely to easily enter the coalition because they suffered badly last time around. I do not see the likelihood of a red green, a black green coalition between CDU and Greens as very high. The Greens are not compatible with the right wing of the cdu.

[A]

And why was it that the CDU did so well?

[B]

Angela Merkel played a fantastic electoral card. She basically runs a Social Democratic government, which basically means that none of the parties can really attack her and therefore basically she occupied, occupied the center ground marvelously. At the same time there was the CDU voters saw no reason why they should support the Liberal Party anymore because they thought they were not helping a CDU program anymore.

[A]

So why was it that the oppositions did so badly? I mean you touched on the centre ground, but more widely, why did they fall so short?

[B]

I mean, the SPD is still, I think, undecided about what to do with its election program. It still has not come to terms with Schroeder years. It is still split between a sort of more left wing side which is very concerned about the left wing splinter party and sort of, let's call it a more pragmatic part. And they never really established a policy program which showed that they were an alternative. The Green Party did extremely well until a few minutes before, a few months before the federal election. However, the their policy proposals of higher taxation and then the great idea to have a veggie day as an obligation was also not particularly helpful. They were also destroyed by relatively. Well, not destroyed, but their vote was reduced by a sustained campaign, especially from the right wing press about accusations about pedophilia of their candidates in the 70s.

[A]

So moving on to the Liberals, what happened to them former coalition partner and also to the AfD, the Eurosceptic party?

[B]

Well, the FDP suffered, I mean last election four years ago, they did extremely well, largely by borrowing or getting CDU voters to vote for them in order to end the grand collision. After four years in which the Liberals did not really show any competence, they showed themselves largely to be a party for special clienteles and such like. They basically kind of lost all form of popularity. They didn't establish themselves as a credible party. So in that sense, one will have to see whether they will ever get back into federal parliaments in the first place, although they are still represented in some of the land parliaments. The AfD's Alternativa fuer Deutschland was a kind of a new formation. It was driven by an anti sort of, sort of euro kind of program, or a kind of program which says that Germany should not bail out kind of other countries. They got quite a lot of votes, 4.7%, most of them from former FDP voters. But they also tapped into a populist sort of anti politics establishment. So the second largest contingent of their voters actually came from the former Communist Party. So in that sense, the AFD is both eurosceptic party in the sense of sort of so called professors, well, professors who are sort of very skeptical about intervention and the euro per se, as well as an anti European populist kind of agenda.

[A]

So, moving on to Europe more widely, what are the implications of this election going to be for the EU bailouts, Europe widely?

[B]

I mean, it will be interesting to see. I think in principle nothing much will change. The SPD is not really fundamentally different to the CDU position on basically bailouts, on austerity drive or on a transfer union. There will be possibly some changes in terms of possibly being a slightly more pro transfer. But domestically, any German government is constrained by the Constitutional Court, it is constrained by public opinion. So in principle nothing much will change. Instead, what I suspect is there will be sort of a reawakening of a sort of British German agenda about institutional reform in the eu, curtailing the European Parliament and the powers of the European Commission. But in terms of transfer union and so on, I do not foresee many changes.

[A]

Okay, thank you very much, Martin Lodge, you're off the hot seat.