Podcast Summary: LSE Public Lectures – German Elections (September 27, 2013)

Main Theme

This episode delves into the aftermath of the 2013 German federal elections, hosted by Martin Rogers in conversation with Professor Martin Lodge of LSE’s Government Department. The discussion centers on party performance, coalition prospects, underlying voter trends, and the broader implications for Europe and the Eurozone.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Coalition Formation and Probabilities (00:00–00:44)

• Coalition negotiations are expected to be protracted:
  Coalition-building could take “2, 3 months.”
• Most likely coalition:
  A partnership between CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) is most probable.
• SPD wariness:
  The SPD remains reluctant to join due to poor experiences in the previous coalition.
• Little chance of CDU-Green alliance:
  “The Greens are not compatible with the right wing of the CDU.” (Prof. Lodge, 00:44)

2. CDU’s Strong Performance (00:44–01:13)

• Merkel’s strategic centrism:
  Angela Merkel “played a fantastic electoral card… she occupied the center ground marvelously.” (Prof. Lodge, 00:48–00:56)
• Limited attack lines for opposition:
  By running a near Social Democratic agenda, Merkel left little room for other parties to distinguish themselves.
• Voter migration:
  Traditional CDU supporters saw no reason to back the Liberals (FDP) any longer.

3. Weaknesses of the Opposition Parties (01:13–02:20)

• SPD’s identity crisis:
  The SPD remains split:

  “It still has not come to terms with Schröder years... split between a more left-wing side and a more pragmatic part.” (Prof. Lodge, 01:22–01:41)

• Inadequate alternative:
  SPD failed to present a compelling program to distinguish themselves.
• Greens’ stumble:
  Greens polled high “until a few months before the federal election,” but suffered due to:
  • Unpopular tax policies
  • The controversial “veggie day” proposal
  • Negative press coverage, especially on old “accusations about pedophilia of their candidates in the 70s.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:12–02:18)

4. The Fate of the Liberals (FDP) and Rise of the AfD (02:20–03:59)

• FDP’s collapse:
  Once buoyed by CDU voters, the FDP “did not really show any competence,” serving only niche clienteles and failing to remain relevant.
  • “They basically kind of lost all form of popularity.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:54)
• Uncertain comeback:
  Their parliamentary future is now in doubt at the federal level.
• AfD’s emergence:
  The newly founded Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) ran on an anti-Euro, anti-bailout platform.
  • Earned 4.7% of the vote, drawing from ex-FDP voters and disillusioned former Communist Party supporters—indicative of a populist, anti-establishment undercurrent.
• Double character of AfD:

  “A eurosceptic party... as well as an anti-European populist kind of agenda.” (Prof. Lodge, 03:56–03:59)

5. Implications for Europe and EU Policy (03:59–04:57)

• Little change in policies anticipated:
  On bailouts, austerity, and transfer union, there is broad consensus between CDU and SPD.
  • “In principle nothing much will change.” (Prof. Lodge, 04:12)
• Domestic constraints:
  Any German government faces limits from the Constitutional Court and public opinion.
• Possible UK-German alignment:
  Lodge expects:

  “A reawakening of a sort of British-German agenda about institutional reform in the EU, curtailing the European Parliament and the powers of the European Commission.” (Prof. Lodge, 04:41–04:51)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Merkel’s centrism:
  “She basically runs a Social Democratic government, which basically means that none of the parties can really attack her...” (Prof. Lodge, 00:48)
• On SPD’s struggles:
  “They never really established a policy program which showed that they were an alternative.” (Prof. Lodge, 01:38)
• On the Greens’ challenges:
  “The great idea to have a veggie day as an obligation was also not particularly helpful.” (Prof. Lodge, 02:05)
• On AfD’s success:
  “They got quite a lot of votes, 4.7%, most of them from former FDP voters. But they also tapped into a populist sort of anti-politics establishment.” (Prof. Lodge, 03:33)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–00:44: Coalition formation analysis
• 00:44–01:13: Why CDU won
• 01:13–02:20: Opposition parties’ stumbles
• 02:20–03:59: FDP failure and AfD rise
• 03:59–04:57: European and EU-level implications

Conclusion

In a brisk yet insightful conversation, Professor Martin Lodge analyzes Germany's 2013 electoral landscape, emphasizing Merkel’s smart centrism, the opposition’s identity struggles, the FDP’s collapse, the AfD’s controversial rise, and likely policy continuity for Europe. For those looking to understand the political winds shaping Germany and its European stance in 2013, this episode offers a concise, expert breakdown.