Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: LSE: Public Lectures and Events
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team
Title: LSE Summer School 2010 - Barack Obama and the End of the American Empire
Speaker: Professor Mick Cox, International Relations Department, LSE
Date: July 21, 2010

This episode features Professor Mick Cox analyzing the presidency of Barack Obama in the context of significant global shifts, particularly the perceived decline of American power and the rise of new players, notably China. Cox discusses the historical significance of Obama’s election, the economic and geopolitical crises shaping the era, and the broader debates on "the end of empire" and global power transitions.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Historical Significance of Obama's Election

Timestamps: [00:56]–[14:00]

• Obama’s victory was a momentous event for three main reasons:

  • The election of an African American as U.S. President.
    • “I say, well, you can talk to me about that when we get a black president of France and when we see the first black Italian prime minister. So the color of his skin… is one of the most remarkable things about that election and one which I think… had an enormous impact on the world.” (Prof. Cox, [03:50])
  • The defeat of the Democratic Party machine, specifically Hillary Clinton, and overcoming expectations rooted in name recognition.
  • Overcoming the Republicans’ polling lead, especially in the months leading up to the financial crisis.

• Changes in the US since the 1950s/60s, such as the Civil Rights Act, were pivotal for Obama’s election.

• Obama is described as a political outsider, not just racially but in background and not from the traditional black political machine.

• Sarah Palin’s candidacy energized the Republican base, showing the deep divisions within America.

• The financial crisis in 2008 was the major factor tipping the election to Obama, as the electorate lost trust in Republican economic management.

2. The 2008 Financial Crisis and Its Political Impact

Timestamps: [19:00]–[29:00]

• Cox outlines the unfolding of the financial crisis: housing collapse, failure of major Wall Street firms, culminating in the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
  • Memorable moment: “On the Monday when it was announced... that Lehman Brothers had gone, what happened? A crisis turned into a panic. A panic, and I mean a panic. It was a... Cuban missile moment.” ([25:00])
• The depth of the crisis was nearly catastrophic (unemployment possibly reaching 30%), requiring unprecedented government intervention.
• This crisis crystallized public perceptions that the Republican Party, identified with free markets, could not be trusted to handle a crisis requiring massive government action.
• The economic panic led to a decisive swing in the polls towards the Democrats and Obama, and the election outcome.

3. The Global Standing of the United States

Timestamps: [29:00]–[38:00]

• Post-9/11, US standing declined globally, especially under George W. Bush, with historically low approval ratings in key allied countries.
• Obama’s challenge: to restore America’s global reputation, particularly towards Europe and the wider Muslim world (e.g., attempts at bridge-building in the Middle East).
• The Iraq War’s unintended consequence: Iran strengthened most in the aftermath.

4. The Larger Challenge: Power Transition

Timestamps: [38:00]–[50:00]

• Beyond immediate crises, Cox identifies a "much larger challenge": the shifting global balance of power, especially from West to East.

  • References James Hoag (2004), Martin Jakes (2008), and Goldman Sachs (2007) on predictions of global power shifting towards Asia, especially China.
    • “America, he said, was now self-evidently in decline. Economically, China was most obviously rising, and because of the 2008 financial crisis, the liberal economic ship was sinking fast.” ([42:00])
  • Neil Ferguson compares America’s situation to ancient Rome’s decline.

• The “power transition” thesis posits that periods of shifting power are historically dangerous, as rising and declining powers create global instability.

5. Is the West Truly in Decline?

Timestamps: [50:00]–[55:00]

• Cox calls for caution against “lazy” declinist thinking:

  • The West (US + EU) still accounts for half of the world economy.
  • The US remains the dominant military power, far outspending China and all other challengers.
  • The most important US alliances and economic ties, including NATO, remain with Europe.

• The “East” is not a unified political/economic bloc.

• The US is economically pivoting more towards Asia/China, but not abandoning Europe.

• The resilience and innovative dynamism of the US economy should not be underestimated.

6. Leadership and the Future

Timestamps: [55:00]–[58:11]

• Despite global power shifts, Cox argues that the world still expects leadership from the US.

  • “But think about this for a minute. It is Obama we ask to do these things... Who else will do it? Who else wants to take it on?” ([57:00])

• While America doesn’t have all the answers, no one else is positioned to assume global leadership – not China, the EU, or any other state.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the remarkable nature of Obama’s victory:
  “The color of his skin… is one of the most remarkable things about that election and one which I think… had an enormous impact on the world.” ([03:50])

• On the financial panic:
  “It was a Cuban missile moment. And at that point, all options were off… The whole financial system of the United States, and therefore the financial system of the world, was now in doubt.” ([25:00])

• On declinist narratives:
  “Washington is no longer the new Rome, America is no longer the great empire. It is now going the way of the Roman Empire, namely downwards.” (paraphrasing Neil Ferguson, [45:10])

• On continued US centrality:
  “Who else will do it? Who else wants to take it on? ...The point is we actually still, if we're absolutely honest about it, still think that that leadership will, has to, must of necessity. And who else is going to do it other than the United States?” ([57:00])

Audience Q&A Highlights

Q1: On Smart Power and Decline

• Question: Is there a correlation between Obama’s proposed use of smart power and American declinism? ([58:35])
• Answer: Cox explains “smart power” as blending hard (military) and soft (diplomatic, cultural) power. It is an effort to restore America’s standing—not necessarily a sign of “decline”—and a savvy political rebranding for the Democrats. ([59:48])

Q2: Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize

• Question: Did Obama deserve the Nobel Peace Prize so early in office? ([59:04])
• Answer: Cox admits the prize was “premature” and Obama should have graciously declined or deferred it, though it was probably intended as a message of global hope rather than a recognition of concrete achievement. ([59:48])

Q3: “When China Rules the World” as a Musical?

• Cox jokes about Martin Jakes' book title and notes the history of Nixon’s opening to China being made into an opera (“Nixon Goes to China”), highlighting shifts in international relations. ([59:17])

Q4: Race, Gender, and Political Barriers

• Question: What’s a bigger disadvantage in American politics: being a woman or being black?
• Answer: Cox muses it might have been even harder for a woman than for an African American to win the presidency. ([65:07])

Q5: The EU’s Role Amid Shifts

• Cox notes the EU’s vast economic and “soft” power, but warns of the risk of being squeezed between an ascendant Asia/China and a still-powerful US.
  “There is a very real danger [of the EU] being squeezed between a still very powerful America and an emerging Asia.” ([66:13])

Q6: US-China: Inevitable Conflict?

• Cox is optimistic that US-China relations, while complicated (e.g., Taiwan, Tibet, trade), are unlikely to lead to direct conflict in the near future, due to mutual interests and China’s focus on cooperative integration.
  “Does this lead anything close to a great power conflict, as it has done in the past...? I don't think so. I still remain resolutely optimistic about that relationship.” ([66:14])

Structure and Flow

1. Assessment of Obama's victory in context
2. Deep dive into the financial crisis and its global influence
3. Examination of America's standing and geopolitical challenges
4. Debate on the nature and reality of global ‘power transitions’
5. Critical engagement with declinist perspectives
6. Reflections on leadership, US centrality in world affairs
7. Interactive Q&A, addressing issues ranging from soft power to the EU’s future and Sino-American relations

Tone, Language, and Style

• The lecture is insightful, witty, sometimes self-deprecating, with humor woven through serious geopolitical analysis.
• Cox balances critical skepticism of American policy with open admiration for the resilience and continued centrality of the US.

Conclusion

Professor Mick Cox’s lecture masterfully situates the Obama presidency in a moment of profound crisis and transformation, questioning both “declinist” narratives and facile optimism. He concludes that while power is shifting globally, the US retains unique leadership responsibilities, and the real world order is more nuanced than headlines suggest. The session ends on a note of cautious optimism regarding future US-China relations and the adaptability of the West.