Podcast Summary: Myanmar on the Brink

Podcast: LSE: Public Lectures and Events
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team (moderated by Professor Danny Quah)
Date: October 5, 2015
Guests:

• Mark Canning (Former UK Ambassador to Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, and ASEAN)
• Jurgen Haacke (Associate Professor, LSE International Relations)
• Shibani Mahtani (Wall Street Journal reporter, Yangon)

Overview

This episode brings together distinguished experts to dissect Myanmar’s state of political transition during a critical period (October 2015), just ahead of the country’s first widely-contested general elections in decades. The discussion explores the nature and future of Myanmar's democratization, the challenges of military dominance, issues of ethnic and religious tension, the role of international stakeholders (notably the US and China), and the deep uncertainty that lies ahead.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Myanmar’s Electoral Moment: Hopes and Hurdles

• Historic Election:
  Myanmar’s November 2015 elections marked, for many, the first genuine opportunity for electoral competition since 1990. 93 parties fielded 6,300 candidates for over 1,100 constituencies (00:50).

• Military Entanglement:
  25% of parliamentary seats remain reserved for the military, guaranteeing sustained influence regardless of the results (01:50, 27:30).

• Ethnic and Religious Complexity:
  With around 20 armed ethnic groups, myriad alliances, and high-profile Buddhist nationalism, "this is not just about the election... but about longer term lessons for how Southeast Asian societies manage fiercely competing special interests" (03:00).

2. Opening Statements from Panelists

Mark Canning: Tremendous Progress, Tangible Limits (05:32)

• Transformation Since 2010:
  Recounts the dramatic opening since Aung San Suu Kyi's release and economic liberalization, with visible changes in media freedom, investment, and employment.

• Lingering Problems:

  • Severe persecution of the Rohingya Muslim minority
  • Emergence of virulent Buddhist nationalism: "a really virulent strain...exerting more and more influence." (08:00)
  • Stubbornness of the military regarding the 2008 Constitution
  • Slow, sometimes self-serving pace of economic reform

• The Big Questions:

  • Can the National League for Democracy (NLD) reprise its stolen victory from 1990? (12:32)
  • Will the military loosen its grip, or revert to the status quo?
  • "My gut feeling is Myanmar will muddle through in a sort of suboptimal way." (13:25)

Notable quote:
"The forces which have opened up Myanmar…are very, very powerful. I think it is extraordinarily important for the military that the economic success of the past few years is sustained" — Mark Canning (13:14)

Jurgen Haacke: The Foreign Policy Chessboard (14:34)

• US–Myanmar relations:
  US policy shifted from regime change to 'pragmatic engagement' under Obama, easing most sanctions to encourage reform (15:00).

• Lingering Tensions:
  Disagreements persist about civil–military relations, the military’s place in the economy, ongoing violence (esp. Rakhine and Kachin states), and disenfranchisement of Muslims.

• Election Outcomes’ Impact:

  • A clean NLD victory could invite greater US cooperation, even military engagement.
  • If the military-backed USDP retains power, little change is expected.
  • "Worst case scenario is some kind of 1990 type" rollback — but considered unlikely (20:44).

• China–Myanmar Relations:
  Arguably at their lowest point in years, facing:

  • Myanmar's discomfort with economic dependence on China
  • Public distrust of China for supporting the old regime
  • Border conflict (notably Kokang region) and China’s suspected support for rebels

• China’s Interests:

  • Stability on the border
  • Resumption of major projects (e.g., the Myitsone Dam)
  • Resistance to foreign mediation in Myanmar’s internal peace process
  • Watching for shifts towards Western alignment after the elections

Notable quote:
"At the moment China-Myanmar relations are arguably at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War." — Jurgen Haacke (22:21)

Shibani Mahtani: Ground-Level Realities and Rising Nationalism (27:23)

• From Hope to Realism:
  Shares first-hand street-level optimism during the Obama visit in 2012, now tempered by “realism” about entrenched power structures.

• Structural Issues with the Election:

  • 25% of Parliament reserved for the military makes overwhelming civilian victory nearly impossible.
  • Little public awareness about the true limits of the election and Suu Kyi’s ineligibility for presidency (28:10).

• Rohingya Disenfranchisement and Buddhist Nationalism:

  • Rohingya stripped of voting rights for the first time in Myanmar's history (29:10).
  • Rise of Buddhist nationalist group MaBaTha, which has succeeded in passing discriminatory laws and holds rallies of "tens of thousands" (31:55).

• Ethnic Politics and NLD’s Weaknesses:

  • Ethnic alliances are fractured, partly due to Suu Kyi’s failure to enlist or coordinate with ethnic parties.
  • Student and activist groups feel sidelined: "Koko G and others who feel very sidelined…now openly criticizing Dawsu" (36:35).

• Vote Buying and Local Politics:

  • USDP accused of leveraging resources and infrastructure (satellite dishes, generators) to sway rural voters.

• Uncertainty Ahead:

  • Extended post-election uncertainty until a new president emerges (March 2016).
  • Business community in "wait and see" mode amid bureaucratic gridlock (39:32).

Notable quote:
"I think the biggest problem is that most people in Myanmar don’t actually understand the constitution... That’s going to set up the country for significant instability after November 8." — Shibani Mahtani (28:45)

3. Panel Discussion: Prospects for Coalitions and Alliances (41:32–48:27)

• The panel agrees that neither the NLD nor USDP is assured of straightforward government formation.
• Military dominance ensures any coalition is subject to their influence.
• Aung San Suu Kyi’s reluctance or inability to court ethnic, student, or minority alliances may limit NLD's options.

Jurgen Haacke:
"There is a question mark as to what other people might be waiting in the wings to potentially attract the votes that they would require in order to emerge successfully as president." (43:38)

Mark Canning:
"It's very hard to see how it's going to come together... My gut feeling is there will be a coalition of sorts, it will still be one that the military dominates." (44:47)

Shibani Mahtani:
Aung San Suu Kyi “still believes... there is a way for her to eventually become president,” but may not realize the limits of her position. (47:31)

4. Audience Q&A: Legitimacy, Capacity, and International Relations (49:24–70:03)

• Capacity gaps: Severe shortage of experienced technocrats due to decades of isolation, with reliance on a few aging officials (54:12).
• NLD’s Policy Vision: Domestic priorities (governance and economy) dominate; foreign policy is almost absent from the party program (56:03).
• NLD’s Internal Weaknesses: Critics lament Aung San Suu Kyi’s failure to elevate alternative leaders, running the NLD as a “one woman show” (61:40).
• Voter Disenfranchisement: Concerns about ethnic and religious minorities being excluded, flawed voting lists, and international monitoring.
• Rising Nationalism: Buddhist nationalist group MaBaTha now mainstream, influencing laws and elections more than street-level violence (76:51).
• Foreign Investment: Stability and continuity remain top concerns, with foreign firms hoping key reformist ministers retain influence regardless of election outcome (76:51).
• China’s Role:
  • Relationship at low ebb—China perceived as both indispensable and a source of friction.
  • Myanmar’s opening up stemmed more from strategic calculations than ideological shifts.

Notable quotes:
"The demand for the few people of talent has increased exponentially... It's going to take a generation or more to build them up." — Mark Canning (54:12)
"It [the NLD] really seems like a one woman show." — Shibani Mahtani (61:40)
"Sanctions didn’t operate like a boot on their neck, but... forced the Myanmar economy to lean more and more towards China." — Mark Canning (81:03)

5. Closing Statements (83:01–86:43)

Shibani Mahtani:

• The chief threat to transition is not military recalcitrance, but the “ugly and kind of scary” surge in Buddhist nationalism, which could destabilize society and undermine reform (83:01).

Jurgen Haacke:

• Myanmar is likely to pursue continued non-alignment internationally, balancing Western and Chinese relationships given the country’s unique vulnerabilities (84:28).

Mark Canning:

• Urges the West to temper expectations and embrace realism:
  "Clearly these elections are going to be suboptimal... There are vested interests, and you wish those away at your peril... It’s going to take a decade or more for the military to relinquish their grip, and people need to be realistic about this." (85:23)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "My gut feeling is Myanmar will muddle through in a sort of suboptimal way."
  — Mark Canning (13:25)

• "At the moment China-Myanmar relations are arguably at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War." — Jurgen Haacke (22:21)

• "I think the biggest problem is that most people in Myanmar don’t actually understand the constitution... That’s going to set up the country for significant instability after November 8." — Shibani Mahtani (28:45)

• "It [the NLD] really seems like a one woman show."
  — Shibani Mahtani (61:40)

• "The demand for the few people of talent has increased exponentially... It's going to take a generation or more to build them up." — Mark Canning (54:12)

• "Sanctions didn’t operate like a boot on their neck... but forced the Myanmar economy to lean more and more towards China." — Mark Canning (81:03)

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–05:32: Introduction, context for the 2015 elections
• 05:32–14:34: Mark Canning’s assessment
• 14:34–27:19: Jurgen Haacke’s regional/international perspective
• 27:23–41:32: Shibani Mahtani’s on-the-ground view
• 41:32–54:01: Panel discussion on post-election scenarios
• 54:01–70:03: Audience Q&A (focusing on policy, capacity, China, and investment)
• 76:51–80:44: Discussion of anti-Muslim violence and investment
• 83:01–86:43: Panelists’ final thoughts

Summary Table

| Topic | Speaker(s) | Highlight | Timestamp | |---------------------|------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Opening context | Danny Quah | Overview of election setup, military’s 25% seat control, ethnic complexity | 00:00-05:32 | | Domestic reform | Mark Canning | "Remarkable opening up," limits of military ceding power, optimism measured | 05:32-14:34 | | US-China relations | Jurgen Haacke | Impact of elections on Myanmar's key partnerships and internal divides | 14:34-27:19 | | Ground realities | Shibani Mahtani | Disenfranchisement, rise of nationalism, rural-urban divides, NLD challenges | 27:23-41:32 | | Alliances/coalitions| All | Uncertainty of alliances, military-dominated likely, NLD’s lack of coalition focus | 41:32-48:27 | | Q&A | All, Audience | Concerns on capacity, NLD leadership, China, ethnic tensions, investment | 49:24-80:44 | | Final reflections | All | Need for realism, slow change, nationalism as gravest threat, pragmatic optimism | 83:01-86:43 |

Conclusion

The panel collectively sees Myanmar’s 2015 election as a pivotal, but incomplete, step in its democratic journey. Military actors retain structural power; new forces of religious nationalism threaten to derail progress; ethnic minorities and Rohingya face escalating disenfranchisement; and the direction of foreign alignment hangs in the balance. While change is real, optimism is necessarily cautious, grounded in realism about how much and how fast Myanmar can be transformed.

Final audience message:
Progress in Myanmar is messy and slow, with no shortage of obstacles. Both locals and international partners must pursue patience, inclusivity, and pragmatism to ensure meaningful, peaceful transition.