LSE: Public Lectures and Events – The Ballpark

Season 3, Episode 6: Polarization and Deindustrialization in the Badger State

Date: January 23, 2019
Host(s): Denise Barron and Chris Gilson
Featured Guests:

• Briana Buck (LSE student from Wisconsin)
• Sarah Scafidi (State politics expert)
• Wendy Scattergood (Political science professor, St. Norbert College)
• Amy Goldstein (Washington Post reporter and author)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Ballpark investigates the political and economic transformation of Wisconsin—nicknamed the Badger State—focusing on two interconnected trends: growing political polarization and the long-term effects of deindustrialization. Hosts Denise Barron and Chris Gilson seek to uncover how shifts in manufacturing, changing demographics, and local political battles have influenced Wisconsin's status as a key swing state in recent US elections.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Wisconsin: Overview and Identity

• Dairy and License Plates:
  • Wisconsin's tagline, "America’s Dairyland," highlights its role as the largest dairy producer in the US. The state is characterized by agricultural fields, major cities (Milwaukee and Madison), and widespread rural areas.
  • [02:25] Briana Buck: "Wisconsin is the producer of the most dairy in the United States. So with dairy comes cows. A lot of cow fields."
• Political Geography:
  • Madison and Milwaukee: Liberal, urban strongholds, with the rest of the state predominantly conservative.
• Badger State Origin:
  • [03:34] Sarah Scafidi explains that the "Badger State" name comes from miners in the 1820s/30s who lived in tunnels, resembling badgers, not from the animal itself.

2. Historical and Contemporary Political Trends

• Traditionally Purple State:
  • Wisconsin has a "very, very close" split between Democrats and Republicans, contributing to its swing state status.
  • Democratic strongholds: Major cities and pockets along state borders.
  • Republican strongholds: The "WOW counties" (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) surrounding Milwaukee, although these became "slightly less red" in recent elections.
  • [05:56] Wendy Scattergood: "We call them the wow Counties...they tend to be very, very red. Although...we've seen them be just slightly less red."
• Shifts in Polarization:
  • Starting in the 1980s-1990s, Wisconsin was led by moderate Republicans (Tommy Thompson) before a turn to more polarizing figures like Scott Walker and Jim Doyle.
  • [08:41] Scattergood outlines: Scott Walker’s Act 10 and right-to-work legislation stirred major protests and contributed to growing polarization.
  • [10:42] Scattergood: Walker did not campaign as a union-buster but implemented measures to curb public employee collective bargaining—catalyst for state polarization.

3. Recent Elections and Political Upheaval

• Midterm Swings:
  • In the 2018 midterm, Democrat Tony Evers narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Scott Walker by less than 1.1%.
  • High turnout—especially among young voters in Milwaukee and Madison—was decisive.
  • [12:03] Scattergood: "It was just under 30,000 votes. That was the difference...record turnout of almost 60%."
• From Trump to Evers:
  • Wisconsin’s shift from voting for Trump in 2016 to electing a Democratic governor highlighted its volatility.
  • [13:02] Scattergood: "Again, that was another one that was really, really close...less than 1% difference."
• Paul Ryan’s Legacy:
  • Paul Ryan hails from Janesville, an economically hard-hit manufacturing town. Locally seen as collaborative, nationally more polarizing.
  • [14:04] Scattergood: "He comes from the Janesville area...lost hundreds of jobs there...as speaker of the House, he's been more of a polarizing figure than on the local level."

4. Deindustrialization and Its Impact

• Economic Shifts:
  • Manufacturing now forms only about 16% of the state economy, surpassed by trade/transportation/utilities.
  • Major job losses (−17%) occurred in 2000–2004 and again after 2009; no significant recovery for factory jobs.
  • [16:11] Scattergood: "2000-2004...17% drops in manufacturing employment...2009-2010, Wisconsin saw another 17% drop."
• Janesville as Microcosm:
  • Amy Goldstein chronicles Janesville’s decline after GM plant closure in 2008, resulting in the loss of nearly 9,000 jobs and ripple effects across community businesses.
  • [20:38] Goldstein: "Good wages, good benefits...so there was really a cascade of lost jobs through this community when this auto plant shut down."
• Recovery and Challenges:
  • Unemployment in Janesville dropped below 4%, but new jobs paid far less than previous auto work (no "real recovery").
  • [26:37] Goldstein: "Unemployment rate...now below 4%. That looks pretty good. On the other hand...recovery is not exactly the word you’d be inclined to use."

5. Deindustrialization, Social Consequences, and Opioids

• Manual laborers who lost physical, well-paying jobs often faced pain and despair, leading to increased opioid dependency.
  • [25:26] Scattergood: "A lot of people argue that's true...there are a lot of, particularly...back injuries...Then when that ran out, then they had to resort to other methods."
  • Emotional loss due to diminished prospects also linked to the opioid crisis.

6. Looking Forward: Wisconsin in 2020 and Beyond

• Upcoming Political Fights:
  • Supreme Court and local elections seen as bellwethers—potential to shift political balance.
  • [30:48] Scattergood: "For me in particular, in looking at the Supreme Court, really important because they're going to be looking at...judicial interpretation."
• Demographic Trends:
  • Population loss and aging in rural, predominantly white Republican areas may weaken GOP strength.
  • Suburban “Wow” counties showing shifts toward Democrats, especially among suburban moms focused on education.
  • [32:41] Scattergood: "Those rural counties are losing population...I think that doesn't bode well for the latest trends for the Republicans."
  • Predicts Wisconsin will remain purple due to enduring demographic and partisan balance.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Wisconsin’s Identity:
  [02:25] Briana Buck: "Wisconsin is the producer of the most dairy in the United States. So with dairy comes cows. A lot of cow fields."
• Origin of the Badger State:
  [03:53] Sarah Scafidi: "Without shelter in the winter, they often slept in the tunnels they had burrowed into the hillside, much like a badger would."
• On Polarization Post-Scott Walker:
  [08:41] Wendy Scattergood: "When Scott Walker was elected...he started the administration with what's called Act 10...trying to curb some of the collective bargaining rights for public employees. And that set off a firestorm of protests...I think that in Wisconsin started a lot of the polarization that happened."
• On Economic and Emotional Fallout:
  [20:38] Amy Goldstein: "People even had days off in the fall to go hunting if they wanted...so there was really a cascade of lost jobs through this community when this auto plant shut down."
• On Superficial Recovery:
  [26:37] Amy Goldstein: "If you look not at just the unemployment rate, but at what kinds of jobs people are working in and what they're paying. Recovery is not exactly the word you’d be inclined to use. Manufacturing jobs have not particularly come back..."
• On Maintaining Appearances Amid Struggle:
  [27:33] Amy Goldstein: "When middle class people fall out of the middle class, they take great care to hide it as best they can. So they tried to keep up appearances in town, both in public streets and individual property."
• On the Future of Wisconsin’s Politics:
  [32:41] Wendy Scattergood: "I really don't see that [partisan division] changing. And I think that's why turnout for us is such a big issue...I think that's going to continue."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• State Identity and Demographics — 02:07 – 03:24
• Origin of the "Badger State" & Political History — 03:24 – 04:32
• Political Geography: Purple Nature, Shift in Counties — 05:04 – 08:31
• Rise of Polarization: From Walker to Trump — 08:31 – 11:32
• 2018 Midterms and Turnout — 12:03 – 13:52
• Paul Ryan, Janesville, and Local/National Politics — 14:04 – 15:57
• Deindustrialization, Economic Downturns — 16:11 – 18:37
• Case Study: Janesville and Amy Goldstein’s Reporting — 18:48 – 24:52
• Opioid Crisis Linkage — 24:59 – 26:16
• Janesville’s ‘Recovery’ and Surface Appearance — 26:25 – 30:00
• Looking Ahead to 2020 & Political Trends — 30:36 – 33:57

Conclusion

This episode presents Wisconsin as a microcosm of larger American trends—illustrating how the intertwined forces of deindustrialization and political polarization have transformed its communities, electoral dynamics, and social fabric. Both rural decline and city-suburban realignments make Wisconsin an unpredictable and closely watched bellwether for national politics. As 2020 draws near, demographic shifts, economic anxieties, and turnout strategies will keep Wisconsin at the center of America’s political story.