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- [00:00]
A
Hello. Welcome to the Heart Seat. I'm Martin Rogers here with Professor Simon Hicks. We're going to be discussing Angela Merkel's recent visit to London and the implications of that for the UK's future within the EU. Welcome, Simon.
- [00:12]
B
Thanks.
- [00:13]
A
So, first of all, what did we learn from Merkel's visit?
- [00:17]
B
What we learned from her visit is that despite the fact that I think Berlin would like to see Britain continue as a member of the eu, there's very little they're willing to do to achieve that. I mean, she said all the right things for Cameron in some sense, but in another sense she said things that were very uncomfortable for, for him and his government to hear. So she said, Germany wants Britain in the eu. They like the fact that Britain makes the EU more open, more liberal, more global. Britain and Germany have similar agendas on some things, like reforming the single market. But equally, she said that she's not willing to give in to some of the demands of Britain for repatriating some of the policy areas like social policy, immigration, justice and home affairs. She doesn't want any movement on the free movement of people issue and she doesn't want treaty reform. And so she says, I'd like you to stay in, but. But I'm not willing to do very much to help you stay in.
- [01:06]
A
What is then Britain's future within the eu? What are the chances of this government's demands being met?
- [01:13]
B
Well, I think Britain, it's not clear what Britain wants yet. And David Cameron and his government have been very careful not to really make a series of demands. That is then very easy for them to say no. And his backbenchers will then look at him and say, you asked for these things, we're not going to get them. We need to have a referendum on whether we leave. So he's not really set out yet clearly what Britain wants. I think he wants a commitment, commitment to reform in the single market, which is sort of nebulous. Commitment to reform. He wants some kind of guarantee of Britain's interests in the single market and perhaps some repatriation of some areas. I don't think he's going to get repatriation of any policy areas. I think he might get some kind of declaration that says that the single market is protected despite deeper integration in the Eurozone. And he might get a commitment to reform of the single market. I think that's the best he can hope for. The question is, is that enough for what he's asking for? Is it enough for the backbenchers in the Conservative party who want a new relationship for Britain. I don't think that they will see that as a new relationship to Britain.
- [02:17]
A
Perhaps one of the most important and contentious issues is that of immigration. The recent figures have shown that the government's target to bring net migration down from hundreds of thousands per year to tens of thousands will not be met. And in fact, immigration is actually rising. Merkel said that there was no chance of any reform of the freedom of movement of Labour. But what are the chances, if any, of this government getting what it wants?
- [02:45]
B
I don't think the government's going to be able to bring those immigration figures down very easily because there's several things about them that the government actually doesn't have control over. The government doesn't have control over the number of Brits who leave. And when the British economy is picking up, as it is right now, British people don't leave and go and get jobs elsewhere, they stay. So on the one hand you've got less people leaving and on the other hand, with the British economy picking up, you've got more people wanting to come here. So while the economy was in the tank, it was very easy to have immigration figures go down, but now the economy is picking up, it's very difficult to control them because they don't actually have control over most of these people coming. They have no restrictions on free movement within the eu. They have no restrictions really on asylum seekers. They apply international law is international law and the British courts that police family reunification rules. So the only two areas they can restrict are students and of course universities don't like that, and high skilled labour from outside the eu and of course the City of London and most British businesses don't want them to restrict that either. So very limited ability to influence those figures. So the one category I think he wants to try and address under pressure from Ukip is the movement of free movement of people from elsewhere in the eu. He's asking for to change the rules to say that in the spirit of the treaties, the Treaty of Rome says free movement of labor, not free movement of people. People are free to come and find jobs, but if you're not looking for a job, then you're not free to stay. So he wants to change the rules to say that if you're a migrant from another EU member state, there should be several months before you're entitled to benefits. So only after you've proved you're looking for a job for a considerable length of time, say six months, are you then entitled to benefits. I actually think there's some sympathy from some other member states on that issue. From the Netherlands or from Denmark, from Germany itself. But the German government is in coalition, the CDU are in coalition with the Social Democrats in Germany. And the German Social Democrats are saying they don't want to move at all on this issue. They're not willing to countenance any change to the current rules.
- [04:44]
A
We've discussed the economy and immigration, two of the most important issues underlining the support of ukip. All across Europe, we're seeing anti immigration, EU far right populist parties springing up. What are the prospects of all parties at the upcoming EU elections and the implications of that?
- [05:10]
B
Yeah, I mean, in a sense, these elections are probably the most important European elections we've ever had. So the elections are every five years since 1979. They've not really been about Europe, they've been about national elections. Swings against national governing parties, sort of military midterm contests in national arenas or national parties, national leaders. These elections could be quite different. The issue of Europe is far more salient than it's been at any time before for publics all across Europe, with the austerity measures and the bailout packages within the eurozone and in states like Britain, outside the eurozone, Britain's relationship with Europe, the rise of ukip, concerns about immigration. So Europe is a salient issue on the minds of voters all across Europe. And it looks like, like what's going to happen in these elections is we're going to see a rise in support for radical parties, mainly on the radical right. Protest, anti European movements. Le Pen could win in France, Wilders could win in the Netherlands. Ukip, not a radical right group, but definitely a populist, anti immigration group, could well come first or second in the uk. And equally radical parties on the left, we could see the radical left winning. An anti austerity, anti European party winning in Greece. So we're going to see a polarisation of politics in Europe and pressure against a squeezing of the centre. UKIP could do very well in Britain, in a sense. These European elections in Britain, despite what I've just said about them being important for Europe, they're actually very important for British politics. They're critical for all four parties. So the Conservative Party, if they finish third in Britain, it will be the first time since universal suffrage. The Conservative Party, he doesn't finish in the top two in any national election. This would be crisis for the Conservative Party if Labour doesn't win these elections in opposition with an unpopular government. This, I think, is very damaging for Labour in the countdown to the next general election. And Ukip have to come first or second. If they come third, then that's a major, major defeat for Nigel Farage. And the Lib Dems, meanwhile, could get completely wiped out. They could lose all of their MEPs. That would be a real tragedy for Clegg.
- [07:10]
A
Thank you very much, Simon. You're off the hot seat.