Podcast Episode Summary
Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Episode: Simon Hix on Merkel and the EU
Date: March 11, 2014
Host: Martin Rogers (LSE Film and Audio Team)
Guest: Professor Simon Hix

Overview:

This episode explores the impact of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent visit to London on the UK’s future in the European Union. Professor Simon Hix offers a nuanced analysis of Merkel’s position, the UK government’s demands, and the rising tide of populism and anti-immigration sentiment ahead of the 2014 European Elections. The conversation focuses on Germany–UK relations, prospects for EU reform, challenges around immigration policy, and the expected political fallout across Europe.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Merkel’s Visit to London and Its Message

• Merkel expressed a preference for the UK to remain in the EU but signaled limited willingness to accommodate British demands for substantial EU reform.
  • Simon Hix:

    “She said, Germany wants Britain in the EU … but equally, she said that she's not willing to give in to some of the demands of Britain for repatriating some of the policy areas like social policy, immigration, justice and home affairs. She doesn't want any movement on the free movement of people issue and she doesn't want treaty reform.” (00:16)

• Merkel’s stance is appreciated diplomatically but offers little material support for David Cameron’s agenda.

2. Britain’s Unclear Demands and Limited Prospects for Reform

• The UK government, led by David Cameron, has deliberately avoided specifying a concrete list of demands for EU reform, making negotiation positions ambiguous.
  • Simon Hix:

    “It's not clear what Britain wants yet. And David Cameron and his government have been very careful not to really make a series of demands. That is then very easy for them to say no.” (01:13)

• Realistically, the UK might achieve rhetorical commitments to reform and market protection, but not the substantive repatriation of powers sought by some Conservatives.
  • Simon Hix:

    “I think he might get some kind of declaration that says that the single market is protected … and he might get a commitment to reform … I think that's the best he can hope for.” (01:48)

3. The Intractability of EU Immigration Policy

• The UK government’s inability to meet its net migration targets is due to factors largely outside its control, particularly within the EU’s framework.
  • Simon Hix:

    “The government doesn't have control over the number of Brits who leave … With the British economy picking up … you've got more people wanting to come here.” (02:44)

• Most potential areas of restriction (students, high-skilled labor) are either economically disadvantageous or politically impractical.
• Cameron seeks to impose restrictions on benefits for intra-EU migrants, but resistance from Germany and its Social Democratic coalition partners makes substantive change unlikely.
  • Simon Hix:

    “The German Social Democrats … are saying they don't want to move at all on this issue.” (04:32)

4. Rise of Populist and Anti-Immigration Parties in Europe

• Upcoming EU elections are projected to be highly consequential due to the prominence of European issues, especially austerity and immigration.
• There’s a projected rise in support for radical right (and some radical left) parties, signifying polarization and a squeeze on the political center.
  • Simon Hix:

    “It looks like … we’re going to see a rise in support for radical parties, mainly on the radical right. Protest, anti-European movements. Le Pen could win in France, Wilders could win in the Netherlands. UKIP … could well come first or second in the UK.” (05:46)

• These elections are pivotal for all major UK parties and could signal existential crises for established groups, depending on their performance.
  • Simon Hix:

    “If [the Conservative Party] finish third in Britain, it will be the first time since universal suffrage. This would be crisis for the Conservative Party.” (06:38)

Memorable Quotes

• “She says, I'd like you to stay in, but. But I'm not willing to do very much to help you stay in.”
  — Simon Hix, (00:53)
• “It's not clear what Britain wants yet. ... I don't think he's going to get repatriation of any policy areas.”
  — Simon Hix, (01:13)
• “They have no restrictions on free movement within the EU. ... So very limited ability to influence those figures.”
  — Simon Hix, (03:30)
• “These European elections in Britain ... they're actually very important for British politics. They're critical for all four parties.”
  — Simon Hix, (06:20)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:16 — Merkel’s position on UK membership and EU reform
• 01:13 — UK government’s ambiguous demands and negotiation strategy
• 02:44 — Immigration policy challenges and the limits of government action
• 04:44 — Populist surge and the significance of upcoming European Elections
• 06:20 — Implications of election outcomes for UK parties
• 07:10 — Conclusion and thanks

Conclusion

Simon Hix offers a sobering analysis: while Merkel and Germany value British EU membership, substantive concessions are unlikely. UK demands remain ill-defined, and tangible reform, especially on migration, is politically out of reach. The conversation foresees a polarized political climate in Europe, with the rise of populist forces reshaping outcomes in both the EU and UK politics.