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- [00:00]
A
Hello, welcome to Heartseed. I'm here with Simon Hicks to discuss the recent European elections. Welcome, Simon. So who's done well, who's done badly in these elections and what were we learned?
- [00:10]
B
Well, the big trend in these elections was the rise of anti establishment parties across Europe. So Ukip won the elections in the uk, the National Front in France, Danish People's Party in Denmark, Syriza, a radical left party in Greece. All across Europe, anti establishment parties of two different types. One type on the right mainly in northern Europe, and one type on the left in southern Europe, in Greece, in Italy and Spain. And in a sense what's been going on is a rise in support for parties protesting against the establishment, the established centre left and the established centre right, who these days to most voters, represent capital cities and urban elites and don't seem to be addressing the main problems in the country and Europe. It's not that this is a vote against Europe, but Europe is an excuse to go out and vote against the mainstream parties.
- [01:04]
A
So how will these parties affect the actual running of the European Parliament?
- [01:09]
B
So we're now seeing between 25 and 30%, depending on how you count it, anti establishment or Eurosceptic parties in the European Parliament. So they're going to have an influence on the agenda of the European Parliament. They won't have that much power in terms of committee chairs, but the biggest influence is going to be an indirect influence on how the mainstream parties are going to respond, particularly on the left. The center left parties are going to have to respond to protests from the radical left against austerity being imposed by Brussels. So already we're seeing center left parties across Europe saying we need to end these austerity measures, we need to try and generate growth in the European economy. And on the right, the mainstream centre right are already reacting to threats from their radical right because they're losing voters. So British conservatives losing voters to ukip, French conservatives losing voters to the National Front, Danish conservative and liberal voters losing voters, votes to the Danish People's Party and so on around Europe. And the main thing there is how centre right parties are responding on the issue of immigration, because these parties are mobilizing on the people are coming from elsewhere in Europe to come and take your jobs, vote for us, we'll stop immigration. So we're now already starting to see mainstream centre right parties saying we need to roll back on the free movement of people in Europe, which is going to be a big challenge for the next five years for the European Parliament.
- [02:23]
A
What prospect is there of some of that change happening and what chance of the British Labour Party moving towards the Conservative position and offering a referendum on the eu?
- [02:33]
B
Yeah, I mean, the big thing to watch in the UK is that more than 50% of the voters voted for either Ukip or the Conservatives. So 27% for UKIP, 24% for the Conservatives. More than 50% of the British voters who actually participated in the election voted for parties who are promising an in out referendum now. Well, Ukip now conservatives by 2017, and that's not far away. So there's going to be a lot of pressure on Ed Miliband to respond to this, particularly because Ukip broke out into labor areas in the country, in the industrial north, in northern cities, in the local elections and the European elections. And so there's going to be a lot of pressure on Miliband. And heading into the general election is going to be one of the questions that Cameron and Farage are going to be asking him. We trust the British people to exercise a vote on Britain's relationship to the rest of Europe. Why don't you?
- [03:25]
A
So what chance has the anti establishment movement that you've talked of being sustained, especially in Britain, given the very low turnout? Is this a flash in the pan or is this a change to the very face of European politics?
- [03:38]
B
I think it's a deep structural change. In the past we've seen a rise in support for anti European parties in European elections, then a decline when it comes back to general elections. But I think these are deep structural changes that have gone on in the European electorate and the European economy over the last 20 years. And we're now starting to see the effect of those changes. So we've seen across a lot of Western Europe the decline of manufacturing and we've seen growing rural poverty and we've seen most of the new jobs in the economy being created in national capital cities. And what was really interesting in these elections for me was how the outcome of the elections in London and Paris was more similar than either Paris compared to the rest of France or London compared to the rest of the uk. So in London and Paris, the Socialists did very well. Labour in the uk, Socialists in Paris. And in neither city did voters go out and vote for the National Front in France or Ukip in Britain. Outside those capital cities, you had decline in support for Social Democrats and growth in support for these radical extreme parties. And this is because what we've seen is mainstream center left parties have become essentially representatives of public sector workers and the cultural industries, the new industries in capital cities in A globalized world who represent the cultural industries like higher education. Meanwhile, centre right parties represent financial interests and those financial capital and big business interests again are in capital cities. So out there in the countryside are cities in industrial decline in France, in Holland, in Scandinavia, in the uk. And traditional voters for Social Democratic parties are now turning to the radical right and rural areas, conservative rural areas, who look at the parties they used to vote for and say these conservative parties are now in favor of gay marriage. We're not in favor of gay marriage. What are they doing? So in a sense, you're seeing as the center right and center left have moved to the center and as they've become representing capital cities, we're seeing them move away from their traditional supporters. And their traditional supporters are going out voting for National Front, Ukip and other protest parties. And as we move to general elections, some of that will decline. But I think there's a deep structural change in the European electorate that won't go away quickly.
- [05:52]
A
And we've seen the convergence of the British and French positions. Is this going to last?
- [06:00]
B
Yeah. It's interesting how, you know, another way of looking thinking about this is that these are the two traditional, most traditional nation states in Europe. I mean, there were two other countries in Europe have a completely different story of the European elections, which is Germany and Italy. Germany. Merkel, the prime minister won the elections in Italy. Renzi, the prime minister won the elections. In a sense, they faced down the anti establishment movements in those countries and Merkel says, we came out victorious. They voted for pro European policies and Renzi says in Italy they voted for reform. But a mainstream party pushing through reform and quite a pro European platform against a anti establishment movement. Beppe Grillo in Italy. So, you know, France and Britain, traditional nation states, worried about European integration. Germany and Italy, much more recent nation states much more comfortable about European integration. And so we're seeing growing contrast between different patterns of European politics.
- [06:54]
A
All right, great. Thanks very much, Simon, you're off the hot seat.