Podcast Summary: Simon Hix on the European Elections 2014

Podcast: LSE: Public Lectures and Events
Date: May 30, 2014
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team
Guest: Simon Hix

Overview

This episode features Simon Hix dissecting the outcome of the 2014 European Parliament elections, which saw a surge in anti-establishment parties across Europe. The discussion explores the implications for mainstream political parties, the future of EU policy, and whether this marks a fundamental shift in European political dynamics.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Rise of Anti-Establishment Parties

Timestamp: 00:10–01:03

• Simon Hix highlights a broad rise of anti-establishment parties in Europe, with distinct trends:
  • Right-wing parties (mainly in Northern Europe): e.g., UKIP in the UK, National Front in France, Danish People’s Party in Denmark.
  • Radical left parties (mainly in Southern Europe): e.g., Syriza in Greece.
• Both types represent protest votes against the established centre-left and centre-right, which are seen by many voters as "urban elites" disconnected from widespread national problems.
• “It’s not that this is a vote against Europe, but Europe is an excuse to go out and vote against the mainstream parties.” — Simon Hix [00:45]

2. Impact on the European Parliament & Mainstream Responses

Timestamp: 01:08–02:22

• Anti-establishment and Eurosceptic parties now make up 25–30% of the European Parliament, giving them an indirect but substantial influence.
• They are unlikely to control significant positions (like committee chairs), but will:
  • Shape debates and pressure mainstream parties.
  • Prompt the center-left to confront anti-austerity pressure, pushing for economic growth.
  • Force the center-right to address concerns around immigration, as radical right parties focus on these themes.
• “We’re now already starting to see mainstream centre right parties saying we need to roll back on the free movement of people in Europe, which is going to be a big challenge for the next five years…” — Simon Hix [02:07]

3. British Political Shifts and Referendum Pressure

Timestamp: 02:22–03:24

• Over 50% of British voters in the European elections backed parties promising an EU referendum (UKIP, Conservatives).
• The pressure is mounting on the Labour Party (Ed Miliband) to respond, especially as UKIP expanded into Labour strongholds in the industrial north.
• “There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Ed Miliband to respond to this, particularly because Ukip broke out into labor areas in the country…” — Simon Hix [02:47]
• Anticipates that calls for an in/out referendum will be central in the lead-up to the UK general election.

4. Is This a Structural Change or a Temporary Trend?

Timestamp: 03:24–05:52

• Hix argues these election results reflect “deep structural changes” that have evolved over the last 20 years:
  • Decline of manufacturing, rural poverty, and urban-centric job growth.
  • Capital cities like London and Paris now elect predominantly mainstream parties, while peripheral regions turn towards radical alternatives.
  • Mainstream centre-left parties represent public sector workers and cultural industries, while centre-right is tied to financial/business elites.
  • Traditional voters—both rural right and working-class left—feel alienated, fueling support for anti-establishment options.
• “I think there’s a deep structural change in the European electorate that won’t go away quickly.” — Simon Hix [05:34]

5. Contrasting European Election Stories

Timestamp: 06:00–06:54

• While the UK and France exhibited strong anti-establishment trends, Germany and Italy saw victories for mainstream, pro-European leaders:
  • Angela Merkel in Germany and Matteo Renzi in Italy successfully countered anti-establishment movements.
  • Suggests France and Britain as more “traditional” nation states, wary of European integration, whereas Germany and Italy are “much more comfortable” with it.
• “We’re seeing growing contrast between different patterns of European politics.” — Simon Hix [06:44]

Notable Quotes

• On anti-establishment sentiment:
  "It’s not that this is a vote against Europe, but Europe is an excuse to go out and vote against the mainstream parties." — Simon Hix [00:45]

• On pressure for a UK referendum:
  "There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Ed Miliband to respond to this, particularly because Ukip broke out into labor areas in the country…” — Simon Hix [02:47]

• On the structural nature of political changes:
  "I think these are deep structural changes that have gone on in the European electorate and the European economy over the last 20 years." — Simon Hix [03:44]

• On contrasting national attitudes:
  "France and Britain, traditional nation states, worried about European integration. Germany and Italy, much more recent nation states, much more comfortable about European integration." — Simon Hix [06:34]

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:10 – Breakdown of anti-establishment gains across Europe.
• 01:08 – Potential influence of Eurosceptic parties on the European Parliament.
• 02:22 – UK election breakdown and referendum prospects.
• 03:24 – Discussion on the durability of trends and structural changes.
• 06:00 – Contrasts between UK/France and Germany/Italy’s electoral responses.

Memorable Moments

• Hix’s framing of urban elites versus rural/industrial voters explains a key shift in European politics.
• The surprisingly similar political behaviors of London and Paris, in contrast to their own countries, underscore the urban-rural divide.
• The distinction Simon Hix draws between structural and cyclical changes sets a nuanced tone for interpreting the elections’ long-term effects.

This episode serves as both a post-mortem of the 2014 European elections and an insightful forecast of shifting patterns shaping European politics in the long run.