LSE Public Lectures and Events Podcast

Episode: Social Unrest in Colombia and Chile: Causes and Cures
Date: November 9, 2021
Host/Chair: Andrés Velasco (Dean, LSE School of Public Policy)
Panelists:

• Ricardo Lagos (Former President of Chile)
• Juan Manuel Santos (Former President of Colombia)
• Minouche Shafik (Director, LSE)
• Mauricio Cárdenas (Former Colombian Finance Minister, Visiting Prof. at Columbia)

Overview

This episode features a high-profile roundtable examining the roots of recent mass protests and social unrest in Colombia and Chile, with a broader lens on global patterns of political and social change. Drawing from the experience of two former presidents, a global economist, and a prominent political scientist, the episode explores:

• The converging causes of unrest in both nations
• The historical and structural inequalities underlying public discontent
• The failure of institutions to adapt and deliver
• The urgent need for a renewed social contract
• Proposals and challenges for reform

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global and Historical Context of Social Unrest

Ricardo Lagos [02:05]:

• Social unrest in Chile and Colombia is part of a larger epochal change—a shift from the Industrial to the Digital Age.
• The digital era disrupts established “vertical” political structures, creating more “horizontal” relations where everyone has a voice (via social media).
• The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a crisis multiplier, stressing existing institutional weaknesses.

“Politics is becoming much more horizontal...everyone feels entitled to tell you the truth.”
— Ricardo Lagos [04:12]

2. Roots of Unrest: The Case of Chile

Ricardo Lagos [05:45]:

• Chile's democratic transition left unresolved issues; Pinochet's constitution, built to frustrate progressive reforms, placed enduring constraints on social policy.
• Despite economic growth and poverty reduction, tax rates remained stagnant, limiting public goods investment.
• The new middle class’s rising demands exposed the inadequacy of state capacity and regressive tax structures.

“Can you have an increasing per capita income so huge, but remain the taxes from the government exactly the same?”
— Ricardo Lagos [08:18]

3. Roots of Unrest: The Case of Colombia

Juan Manuel Santos [13:54]:

• Both countries faced a surge of unmet expectations among a growing middle class.
• The peace process after decades of conflict intentionally opened space for protest but wasn't supported by the subsequent government.
• Inequality remains a key driver: Colombia became the second-most unequal country in Latin America (World Bank 2021).
• The pandemic deepened structural problems.
• Trust in institutions has all but collapsed—a trend echoed globally.

“Institutions have lost the trust of the people and the relation of the institutions with the people. That has to change.”
— Juan Manuel Santos [20:46]

4. What’s Needed: A New Social Contract

Minouche Shafik [22:51]:

• The unrest reflects a failed or incomplete social contract; there’s little consensus on what citizens owe each other.
• Solutions require both redistribution (tackling inequality) and “pre-distribution” (investment in people’s future).
• Latin American states have well-developed coercive arms (“right hand”–police/military) but underdeveloped welfare arms (“left hand”).
• Many current tax systems are riddled with loopholes and collection failures.
• Latin America should build on its innovations, such as:
  • Conditional cash transfers (Brazil, Mexico)
  • Pension reform (Chile)
• Key reforms suggested:
  • Expand targeted social assistance (like earned income tax credits)
  • Labor market reforms for more flexibility + security (Danish “flexsecurity” model)
  • Universal benefit portability for the digital economy
  • Massive investment in early childhood education and childcare to boost social mobility

"In Chile, it takes six generations to go from the bottom of the income distribution to the middle. In Colombia, it's eleven generations. That basically means you have no hope your children or grandchildren will be middle class.”
— Minouche Shafik [30:24]

5. Comparative Politics & Solutions

Mauricio Cárdenas [33:36]:

• Protest roots are partly global: increased information, higher youth expectations, and social media make relative deprivation visible.
• Governments resorted to “patches,” but what’s needed is structural transformation.
• Key difference: Chile sees constitution reform as an avenue; Colombia’s constitution is seen as flexible and adaptive, but implementation of the peace process lacks.
• State presence/capacity is a major challenge in Colombia.
• Populism is on the rise; unless moderate, inclusive politics prevails, reforms risk being derailed.

“In this new world, the winner should not take it all. You cannot govern our countries with all your classmates from your university...The lack of inclusion is going to explode in the streets.”
— Mauricio Cárdenas [40:41]

Audience Q&A and Challenging Issues

Trust, Institutions & Political Decay

• Widespread loss of trust in state and non-state institutions is a distinctive feature of the current wave of unrest.
• Postponement and avoidance of tough issues (ex: Chile's pension system, stubborn 10% contribution) left problems to fester.

“…Never are we able to address the real issues. And that is the reason why there was a loss in confidence in the institutions, because the problem has been postponed and not solved.”
— Ricardo Lagos [44:38]

• More horizontal, coalition-oriented politics (PR vs. "winner-take-all" systems) are more likely to produce effective social contracts (Minouche Shafik [58:52]).

Social Media & Political Change

• Social media erodes old hierarchies, spreads discontent, and challenges leadership’s ability to control narratives.

“Editors don’t choose what they think is important, but what is a trending topic...this changed completely the relations between the public, the media, the politicians.”
— Juan Manuel Santos [61:57]

Restoring Trust and (Re)Designing Institutions

• All panelists emphasize the need to “deliver, communicate, respect, hear” (Santos [50:48]).
• New mechanisms—like citizens’ assemblies (Ireland/Chile)—could foster legitimacy and consensus.

Financing the Social Contract

• The panel repeatedly stressed the need for increased, more progressive taxation—but also fair enforcement and visibility of results (Minouche Shafik [89:52], Santos [91:37]).
• Tax evasion and corruption are critical barriers (Cárdenas [87:40]).
• Use of digital technologies suggested to combat evasion and corruption.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “What’s going on is a kind of protest contagion—are we having a protest contagion of some sort?”
  — Andrés Velasco [58:00]

• “Colombia has the worst distribution of the land in the whole world...That is something which is astonishing, but it’s the truth.”
  — Juan Manuel Santos [52:22]

• "You have to have a diverse government, you have to form coalitions, you have to include people, because otherwise the lack of inclusion is going to explode in the streets."
  — Mauricio Cárdenas [40:41]

• “If they create political institutions to learn to listen, then I hope that the trust and confidence in the institutions will increase.”
  — Ricardo Lagos [94:55]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro & Panel Setup: 00:00–02:05
• Ricardo Lagos: Historical Roots & Chile's Issues: 02:05–12:44
• Juan Manuel Santos: Colombian Context & Inequality: 13:54–22:25
• Minouche Shafik: The Social Contract—Theory and Practice: 22:51–31:16
• Mauricio Cárdenas: Comparative Lessons & State Capacity: 33:36–42:01
• Discussion: Collapse of Institutional Trust: 42:01–58:00
• Institutional & Technological Change: 58:00–64:18
• Questions: Taxation, Social Investment, Higher Education, Political Structures: 70:49–80:42
• Closing Reflections: Environment, Corruption, and the Path Ahead: 80:42–96:00

Thematic Summary & Closing Thoughts

The panel converges on several themes:

• Social unrest is rooted in deep historical inequalities, a failure to adapt institutions, and the inability to provide meaningful public goods as expectations rise—especially among the emergent middle class.
• The collapse in trust is both a cause and consequence of political and social failure, amplified by new technologies and global trends.
• The solution must be a renewed, more inclusive, and horizontal social contract: responsive political systems, fair and effective taxation, investment in education and opportunity, and institutional innovation.
• Populism, polarization, and lack of institutional legitimacy threaten the path toward reform—without renewed politics, technical fixes will not succeed.
• There is an urgent need to integrate environmental sustainability and address corruption as core pillars of the new social contract.
• Comparative lessons—learning both from each country’s successes and failures—are crucial as both nations and the region face renewed tests of democratic governance.

For Listeners:

This episode provides a sophisticated, insider perspective for anyone seeking to understand the deeper causes of protest and the pathways to democratic renewal in Latin America—and lessons for democracies everywhere facing similar storms.