Podcast Summary: The 2008 London Mayoral Elections

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Host: Justin Guest (LSE Doctoral Student, Moderator)
Guest: Professor Patrick Dunleavy (Professor of Political Science and Public Policy)
Date: May 8, 2008

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep dive into the surprising results and broader significance of the 2008 London Mayoral elections, in which Conservative Boris Johnson defeated two-term Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone. Professor Patrick Dunleavy offers expert insights into the dynamics of the election, the performance of the voting system, potential implications for London and national politics, and what both the Conservative and Labour parties may face going forward.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Did Boris Johnson Win?

• National Political Context Was Crucial

  • Professor Dunleavy argues that national government performance plays a significant role in local elections.

    "It is really that simple. You know, in British local government elections, national government performance is very important." (00:37, Dunleavy)

  • Despite Ken Livingstone's strong individual performance—20 points above the national Labour vote—it wasn't enough against the national tide favoring Conservatives.

• Candidate Appeal

  • Boris Johnson's celebrity status and instant name recognition made him a strong contender.

    "Boris was a great celebrity candidate with instant name recognition." (00:37, Dunleavy)

2. How Did the Electoral System Perform?

• System's Intended Functionality

  • Dunleavy, designer of the London mayoral electoral system, notes that the system worked as planned because it highlighted two prominent candidates from major parties.

    "The result was a great result for the system because it was designed to work with two very clear candidates, Conservative and Labour usually." (01:11, Dunleavy)

  • Voters could easily identify the frontrunners, helping them use their second preference effectively.

• Increased Voter Turnout

  • Turnout rose from 37% to 45%, seen as a positive outcome against the trend of declining political engagement in Britain.

    "Turnout went up very radically from 37% to 45%, which is a great result in a generally declining turnout situation in Britain." (01:24, Dunleavy)

3. Ken Livingstone’s Legacy and Boris’s Challenges

• Livingstone’s Transformative Tenure

  • Ken Livingstone is praised as a rare politician who significantly impacted daily life in London.

    "Ken is actually a great politician. I mean, you know, a politician, you can actually change something that really impacts on your daily life is a very rare thing. And Ken has done that many, many times since being London mayor." (02:32, Dunleavy)

  • Built a broad, populist coalition, managed transport, urban development, and negotiated with diverse interest groups.

• Expectations for Boris Johnson

  • The main challenge for Boris is simply to maintain stability in his first year.

    "If he just doesn't mess anything up by the end of year one, that will be a very good result for Boris." (02:22, Dunleavy)

  • Following Livingstone is a "really hard act," and Boris will be judged by his competence in maintaining what’s already in place rather than radical change.

4. Which Boris Johnson Campaign Promises Might Succeed?

• A Focus on ‘Bendy Buses’ and the Congestion Charge
  • Removing the much-disliked bendy buses is cited as a likely quick win.

    "I think getting rid of bendy buses was a great, great slogan. These great, long, sinuous buses that, you know, clog up the streets and take ages to turn around corners and everything. They will probably go quite quickly..." (03:34, Dunleavy)

  • Johnson’s other promises are considered unlikely to have significant impact, except halting the enlargement of the congestion charge—which will keep parts of London "gridlocked."

    "The congestion charge would have enlarged and probably it now won't. There'll be a vote and it won't enlarge and that bit of London will stay gridlocked..." (03:56, Dunleavy)

5. Is Boris Johnson an Asset or Liability for the Conservatives?

• Boris as an Electoral Asset

  • Johnson’s appeal is a clear advantage, though his performance closely mirrors national trends.

    "Boris is a great asset for the Conservative Party. Without him, they perhaps would not have won against Ken Livingstone." (04:24, Dunleavy)

• Relationship with National Conservative Leaders

  • City Hall will operate with local autonomy; national leader David Cameron is unlikely to micromanage London.

    "David Cameron has got more than enough things to be doing without trying to run London as well. Boris will be on his own, for better or worse, with possibly a very good team." (04:45, Dunleavy)

6. Labour’s Path to Recovery

• Electoral Setback Context

  • Labour’s local election result (24% nationally, third place) is their worst since 1918—but only partly due to their own popularity decline.

    "That's a very bad result. It is not perhaps as bad a result as people are writing it up because, you know, both the two main parties have been declining in support..." (05:19, Dunleavy)

• Required Shifts

  • Labour needs a 5-6% increase in national vote share to be competitive again.

• Prospects for Next General Election

  • Dunleavy speculates on an early general election in June 2009, contrary to expectations.

    "I myself believe very oddly and idiosyncratically that we could have a general election by June 2009. Most other people are assuming that... Labour will hang on till April or May 2010." (06:31, Dunleavy)

• Strategic Recommendations

  • Focus on economic improvement:

    "It is the economy, stupid. You know, if people are really hurting, prices are going up, they're gloomy about prospects, they punish the government in power and that's what they should do." (07:10, Dunleavy)

  • Stop pursuing unpopular initiatives—cited issues include the terrorism detention policy, tax reforms, and lack of democratic reforms.

    "The other thing it's got to do is just stop doing completely pointlessly unpopular things." (07:19, Dunleavy)

  • Re-engage the left and pursue genuinely popular reforms.

• Labour’s Organization

  • The party machinery performed relatively well in the mayoral campaign, and there was a "surprising flowback" of activists.

• Leadership Challenges

  • Gordon Brown’s leadership needs to ‘look different’ and the party must build active popular support.

    "Gordon Brown has got to look different as a Prime minister. That's a more difficult thing to do. But I think as long as the government stopped doing unpopular things and started trying to build, actively build support, it wouldn't have a difficult job." (08:06, Dunleavy)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ken Livingstone’s Legacy:

  "Ken is actually a great politician. I mean... a politician you can actually change something that really impacts on your daily life is a very rare thing. And Ken has done that many, many times."
  — Patrick Dunleavy (02:32)

• On low expectations for Boris Johnson:

  "If he just doesn't mess anything up by the end of year one, that will be a very good result for Boris."
  — Patrick Dunleavy (02:22)

• On political fortune’s fickleness:

  "People write political epitaphs every six months, then they, you know, six months later say, oh no, he's on course for victory."
  — Patrick Dunleavy (05:19)

• On what governments must do to win:

  "If you want to be elected, be popular, stop doing unpopular things."
  — Patrick Dunleavy (07:54)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening & Overview of Results — 00:00–00:37
• Why Boris Won & Livingstone’s Performance — 00:37–01:11
• Electoral System & Turnout — 01:11–01:52
• Livingstone’s Legacy & Boris’s Challenge — 01:52–03:25
• Boris’s Campaign Promises — 03:25–04:09
• Boris as Party Asset & National Relationship — 04:09–05:09
• Labour’s Recovery Path & National Trends — 05:09–08:06
• Key Insights for Labour Going Forward — 08:06–08:45

This episode provides a nuanced, data-driven understanding of the 2008 London mayoral election, placing the results within wider national political and socioeconomic dynamics. The conversation is candid, witty, and uses clear examples—making it an insightful listen for anyone interested in British politics or the mechanics behind electoral success and failure.