Podcast Summary

LSE: Public Lectures and Events

Episode: The 2012 London Mayoral Election

Release Date: March 21, 2012

Speakers:

• Host (A): Martin Rogers
• Guest (B): Professor Tony Travers

Episode Overview

This episode explores the dynamics and implications of the 2012 London mayoral election. Host Martin Rogers interviews Professor Tony Travers about the dominance of leading candidates, the role of smaller parties, significance for London and the UK, and the broader political context. The conversation also delves into the powers of the Mayor, electoral strategies, impacts on national politics, and prospects for future races.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Two-Horse Race Dynamics

• Supplementary Vote System: Intended to increase plurality but led to a contest dominated by two major parties (00:11).
  • “It’s certainly turned into a two horse race. ... It would allow greater plurality in voting. What’s actually happened is that the mayoral race has turned into a two horse race and that’s indirectly fed through to the assembly...” — Professor Travers [00:11]
• Celebrity Candidates: The personal brands of Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone reinforce the two-party competition.
  • "Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone ... are highly visible celebrity candidates... it pushes even further into that space of the two horse race.” — Professor Travers [01:03]

2. Role of Smaller Parties and Incumbent Candidates

• Repeat Candidates: All major parties fielding the same candidates as in 2008 creates a sense of staleness.
  • “... having all three major parties with the same candidate this time as in 2008 looks as if somehow the political parties can't think afresh, can't be creative.” — Professor Travers [01:51]
• Protest Vote Potential: Greens (Jenny Jones) and independents try to capitalize on voter dissatisfaction.

3. London’s Political Identity

• Is London a Labour City?: The city traditionally swings but has shifted more towards Labour since the late 1990s (03:44).
  • “... since 1997, there is some evidence that London has shifted somewhat towards being more a Labour city. ... But even despite that, it's still plural.” — Professor Travers [03:44]
• Boundary Implications: Inclusion of Conservative-leaning suburbs maintains competitiveness.

4. Significance of the Election

• Media & Political Attention: The contest overshadows other local elections, reflecting the city’s prominence (02:38).
• Wider Impact: Other cities (e.g., Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, Bristol) voting on whether to introduce mayors, highlighting a trend toward city-wide leadership roles (03:40).

5. Mayoral Powers and Constraints

• Autonomy vs. Central Government: The Mayor has visible powers but is heavily constrained by national policies, spending limits, and dependency on central grants.
  • “The mayor does not have control, for example, over most of the resources that London spends... In the end the mayor is heavily dependent on central government policy.” — Professor Travers [05:45]

6. Policy Battleground: Cost of Living

• Fares vs. Taxes:
  • “Ken Livingstone is offering a popular policy with a lower fare offer... Boris Johnson has countered that with a commitment to cut the council tax.” — Professor Travers [07:21]
• Tradeoffs: Lower fares mean less budget for infrastructure; big projects like Crossrail are protected, but the “margin” for smaller investments is squeezed (08:33).
  • “At the margin, if there are lower taxes and lower fares, there is less money for the GLA... It would sort of slightly slow down spending on some of the smaller items...” — Professor Travers [08:33]

7. Electoral Predictions and Stakes

• Too Close to Call: “Polls have moved backwards and forwards... I suspect it will go on moving around. It'll be a close fight.” — Professor Travers [09:17]
• National Implications:
  • For David Cameron, a Johnson loss isn’t catastrophic (“midterm blues”), but a Johnson win keeps him out of Parliament, delaying potential future ambitions (10:16).
  • For Ed Miliband, a Livingstone loss would feed into a narrative of Labour weakness.

8. The Future of Candidacies

• Need for Renewal: All major parties have relied on repeat candidates; there’s a clear need to nurture new, appealing figures.
  • “Both parties and the Liberal Democrats need to start to find a way of nurturing potential new candidates... they have a route to this kind of office, which it would appear they've all found difficult so far.” — Professor Travers [11:40]
• Ideal Candidate Profile:
  • Politically experienced, publicly recognizable, attuned to London’s social liberalism and concerns about law and order (12:58).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone ... are highly visible celebrity candidates and they represent the Labour Party, the Conservative Party. ... it pushes even further into that space of the two horse race.” — Professor Travers [01:03]
• “London politics, like all big city politics, stands slightly separate from mainstream ... I think to be mayor of London, you have to show yourself independent of your own party and so on.” — Professor Travers [04:40]
• “Livingstone ... reducing public spending because a pound spent on cutting fares can't then be used for investment. ... He's judging that people want money in their pockets more than they want it spent on paint and tiles in Tube stations.” — Professor Travers [07:21]
• “At the margin, if there are lower taxes and lower fares, there is less money for the GLA and for transport for London. ... It would sort of slightly slow down spending on some of the smaller items, which are nevertheless important.” — Professor Travers [08:33]
• “Polls have moved backwards and forwards... It'll be a close fight. But what you can say is that if Johnson doesn't win, it's not good for David Cameron and if Livingstone doesn't win, it's certainly not good for Ed Miliband.” — Professor Travers [09:17]
• “Both parties and the Liberal Democrats need to start to find a way of nurturing potential new candidates so they can bring them forward to stand in this election.” — Professor Travers [11:40]

Timestamps for Key Topics

| Timestamp | Topic Summary | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:11 | The emergence of a two horse race and impact on smaller parties | | 01:03 | Celebrity factor and forced choice between two main candidates | | 01:51 | Repeat candidates and the challenge for smaller parties | | 02:38 | Importance of the London mayoral election and wider context | | 03:44 | London's political identity and boundaries | | 04:40 | Powers and visibility of the Mayor; political independence | | 05:45 | Fiscal limitations and reliance on central government | | 07:21 | Cost-of-living policies: fares vs council tax, and investment | | 08:33 | Impact on major projects and marginal spending | | 09:17 | Who will win? Political stakes for party leaders | | 10:16 | National political ramifications for party leaders | | 11:40 | Future prospects: leadership renewal and candidate profiles |

Closing Remarks

Professor Travers concludes with a call for political parties to cultivate a new generation of mayoral candidates, emphasizing the need for experience, recognizability, and resonance with London’s unique electorate. The discussion underlines the election’s importance not only for the city but also for the broader national political landscape.

End of summary.