Podcast Summary: LSE: Public Lectures and Events – “The Impact of the Mumbai Terror Attacks” (08 December 2008)

Overview

In this special “Hot Seat” episode, Justin Guest interviews Professor Sumantra Bose (LSE) on the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks—widely described as "India’s 9/11." The discussion explores how the attacks affect India’s complex relationships with Pakistan, implications for the country’s large Muslim population, regional geopolitics, and the prospects for future interstate cooperation on security issues. Bose draws on historical parallel, current affairs, and regional dynamics to provide an insightful analysis of the situation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Impact on India–Pakistan Relations

• Historical Context:
  • The attacks do not "transform" the troubled history between India and Pakistan but threaten the modest “thaw” in relations seen over the past four years, where there was hope for normalization, especially regarding Kashmir. (00:28)
  • Quote:

    “What it does throw into some jeopardy is the relative thaw in the India-Pakistan relationship that we have been experiencing… especially that progress could be made on sorting out the Kashmir dispute. Now that prospect looks rather distant, if not bleak now because it does appear that members of a group, a radical Islamist group based in Pakistan are responsible…”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (00:28–01:27)

2. Implications for India’s Muslim Population

• Communal Violence Context:
  • India has a history of communal (Hindu-Muslim) violence, but retaliatory backlash against Muslims looks unlikely due to evidence showing perpetrators were not domestic. (01:36)
  • Quote:

    “The good news is that it looks very unlikely that there will be a backlash against India's Muslim minority because of these attacks… There is no evidence at all of any significant collusion by Indian Muslims in these attacks.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (01:36–03:01)

3. Securitization of the Indian State

• Increasing Security Measures:
  • India has experienced “securitization” since the 1980s (Punjab insurgency, Kashmir conflict). The Mumbai attacks’ use of frontal assault tactics contrasts with earlier bombings, prompting further security escalation. (03:09)
  • Bose shares personal concern about increased security in public places but acknowledges its necessity. (04:00)
  • Quote:

    “Obviously there’s going to be a ratcheting up of security… But as Americans would realize, for example, after 9/11, there is no alternative… people tend to be rather good-natured about it on the whole because there’s just no alternative.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (03:09–05:03)

4. Broader Regional Dynamics

• Interconnected South Asian Problems:
  • The conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Northwest, the Kashmir issue, Iran’s border troubles, and domestic situations are all linked. (05:12)
  • Bose argues that terrorism can’t be addressed by military means alone—political solutions are needed for issues like Kashmir. (06:45)
  • He notes the involvement of Lashkar-e-Taiba, with roots in Kashmir, in the Mumbai attacks.
  • Quote:

    “The long-term way of isolating groups of this nature is to address political problems through a political strategy and approach.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (07:40)

  • Bose empathizes with Afghan resentment toward foreign troops, cautioning that military surges (like those under Obama) won’t solve core political grievances. (08:40)
  • Quote:

    “…None of us would like foreign troops to be around on the soil of our country… So that is an issue.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (08:25)

5. Prospect of Interstate Cooperation

• Avoiding Military Escalation:
  • Mumbai is unlikely to trigger a crisis like the 2002 India–Pakistan military standoff, which is a positive sign. (09:13)
  • Bose sees potential for greater security cooperation between moderates in both countries, supported by US diplomatic leverage. (09:40)
  • He commends the quick and constructive intervention by the US, particularly Secretary Condoleezza Rice’s visits to Delhi and Islamabad. (10:10)
  • Quote:

    “This is not to say that all of the elements in the Pakistani ISI… can be trusted, but clearly there is a certain shared ground between the moderate middle ground in Pakistan and the Indian authorities in tackling a cross-border menace of this nature.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (09:40)

  • Quote:

    “Unlike in 2002 when Washington took time to get its crisis diplomacy together, this time they've acted quite quickly.”
    — Professor Sumantra Bose (10:21)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the political nature of the response:

  “The long-term way of isolating groups of this nature is to address political problems through a political strategy and approach.”
  — Professor Sumantra Bose (07:40)

• On India’s response to terrorism:

  “India has a long history of, of terrorist attacks of this type. India's cities have been targeted before... the novelty this time around is the use of frontal assault tactics.”
  — Professor Sumantra Bose (03:35)

• Empathy for Afghan Perspective:

  “None of us would like foreign troops to be around on the soil of our country… So that is an issue.”
  — Professor Sumantra Bose (08:25)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–01:29: Introduction & effect on India–Pakistan relationship
• 01:29–03:01: Impact on India’s Muslim minority
• 03:01–05:03: Security state and domestic implications
• 05:03–09:06: Regional connections and policy recommendations
• 09:06–10:46: Prospects for cooperation and role of the US

Conclusion

Professor Sumantra Bose provides a nuanced overview of the Mumbai attacks’ ripple effects—locally, regionally, and internationally. He stresses the need for political solutions alongside reinforced security, expresses cautious optimism about avoiding escalation with Pakistan, and highlights the crucial—if complex—role of US diplomacy. The discussion remains grounded, realistic, and empathetic to the challenges faced by all communities involved.