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Episode Summary: Tony Travers discusses the 2018 Local Elections

Date: May 18, 2018
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team
Guest: Professor Tony Travers

Episode Overview

This episode features Professor Tony Travers analyzing the outcomes and implications of the 2018 UK local elections. The discussion explores party performances, changing political currents, leadership dynamics, voter motivations, and the impact on the broader Brexit process. Travers provides expert insight into what these local results suggest for national politics and the future direction of the main parties.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Main Party Performance and Election Expectations

[00:24–01:16]

• The contest between the Conservatives and Labour was the central focus.
• Travers’ Take: Despite being in government since 2010, the Conservatives outperformed expectations, while Labour's gains were underwhelming given their opposition status.
  • Quote:

    "The Conservatives will be happiest... you'd have expected the opposition party to be doing rather better than these results... after this period in power, the Conservatives will feel they've got away with it, whereas Labour privately probably think they should be doing better." (Tony Travers, 00:33)

2. The Smaller Parties: Gains and Setbacks

[01:16–02:53]

• Liberal Democrats achieved notable progress, especially in London by gaining Kingston and Richmond boroughs.
• Despite gains, Lib Dems are not near their pre-coalition strength (down from 25% to about 16% nationally).
• UKIP suffered a near-total loss, reflective of the party’s decline since its peak.
• The Green Party made modest gains but no significant breakthrough.
  • Quote:

    "Ukip have done really quite very badly. Greens have made a bit of progress here and there, but overall, as ever, never a breakthrough..." (Tony Travers, 02:29)

3. Implications for the Next General Election

[02:53–04:33]

• Local election results suggest continued stalemate in national politics; both Conservatives and Labour share 35% in equivalent national vote share.
• The results indicate another potential hung Parliament if repeated in a general election.
• No immediate sign of an earlier general election unless Conservative instability forces one.
  • Quote:

    "If you roll that forward into a general election, it would mean another hung Parliament... a sort of stalemate in British politics." (Tony Travers, 03:22)

4. Party Leadership Prospects

[04:33–07:14]

• The elections somewhat solidified Theresa May's position, averting immediate leadership challenges.
• The Conservatives are historically adept at leadership renewal before elections.
• Labour's leadership faces deep internal divisions; public support for Corbyn contrasts with private concerns among MPs.
• Pressure mounts on Labour to find an electable leader to oust the Conservatives in the next election.
• Lib Dem leader Vince Cable remains safe for now thanks to the party’s modest local gains.
  • Quote:

    "Labour would be out of power for 17 years again... big pressure on the Labour Party to come up with a leader of some kind before the next election who can appeal to middle ground voters." (Tony Travers, 06:22)

5. Local vs. National Issues & Voter Turnout

[07:14–09:13]

• Turnout was higher than in previous local elections, possibly approaching 40%, but still trails general election participation by a significant margin.
• Voting motivations mix local issues (like council tax, services) with national ones (Brexit, austerity, Windrush, Labour’s anti-Semitism).
• Regional differences: Conservatives performed relatively well in Midlands and North, Labour in London.
  • Quote:

    "There is a mixture here of really local things, which is what it should be... inevitably, with this overhang from issues like Brexit, austerity, the Windrush debacle... all of these issues will have played a role..." (Tony Travers, 08:29)

6. Implications for Brexit

[09:13–10:54]

• Brexit continues with minimal progress, as the government struggles for consensus.
• Local results suggest the public isn’t “radically fed up” with the government or hungry for dramatic change.
• The elections reflect an electorate signaling caution rather than appetite for upheaval.
  • Quote:

    "The local election results are a signal that the electorate remains cautious... does not want a dramatic and radical change, albeit voting for Brexit was a signal of that kind two years ago." (Tony Travers, 10:32)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "[Labour's] gains were, net, but... against expectations... the Conservatives will feel they've got away with it..." — Tony Travers (00:33)
• "Liberal Democrats did well in London... gaining control of Kingston and Richmond." — Tony Travers (01:34)
• "Ukip have done really quite very badly. Greens... never a breakthrough." — Tony Travers (02:29)
• "If you roll that forward... it would mean another hung Parliament... stalemate in British politics." — Tony Travers (03:22)
• "Labour would be out of power for 17 years again... pressure to come up with a leader who can appeal to middle ground voters." — Tony Travers (06:22)
• "There is a mixture here of really local things... inevitably, with this overhang from issues like Brexit..." — Tony Travers (08:29)
• "The electorate remains cautious... does not want a dramatic and radical change..." — Tony Travers (10:32)

Important Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 00:24 – Main parties: Who “won” and who will be most satisfied
• 01:16 – Analysis of smaller party fortunes: Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP
• 02:53 – Translating local results to the prospects for a general election
• 04:33 – Discussion of party leadership futures
• 07:14 – Voter motivation: local vs national issues and turnout analysis
• 09:13 – The results’ impact on the Brexit process

Tone and Style

Throughout the episode, Professor Travers delivers measured, data-driven analysis with a tone of pragmatic realism. He balances the technical aspects of British politics with clear explanations to ensure listeners with varying backgrounds can follow the nuanced discussion.

Summary for New Listeners

Professor Tony Travers provides a thorough, insightful analysis of the 2018 local election results, exploring their meaning for party fortunes, future leadership, voter motivations, and the ongoing Brexit saga. The episode offers context and clarity about the political “stalemate” gripping Britain, and highlights the cautious mood of the electorate as the country navigates turbulent times.