Podcast Summary: Tony Travers on Party Conference Season 2017

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Host: LSE Film and Audio Team
Guest: Professor Tony Travers
Date: October 11, 2017
Duration: ~12 minutes

Overview

This episode features Professor Tony Travers, who analyzes the 2017 UK party conference season, focusing on the roles and evolving nature of political conferences, and offering insights into the current state of the Liberal Democrats, Labour, Conservatives, and the broader landscape of Brexit and the political centre ground.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Purpose and Changing Nature of Party Conferences

[00:16-02:10]

• Historically: Party conferences were genuine opportunities for party members, grassroots activists, and local government representatives to debate policies, engage directly with leadership, and influence party direction.
• Recent years: Conferences have become more "manicured," designed more to project party unity and leadership competence to the public and media than to host genuine grassroots debate.
• 2017 focus: For the Conservatives, there was a clear attempt to "relaunch Theresa May, to show that the government had strong leadership and that there was a plan for Brexit and everything else.”
• Notable quote:

  “In the last 20 or so years… party conferences have become manicured. We can't have dissent in the halls. And they're really designed for the party to project an image of, you know, we're all together, we've got a plan for the future…”
  — Tony Travers [00:34]

• Conferences now resemble trade shows, less focused on activists or member debate.

2. The Liberal Democrats and Leadership of Vince Cable

[02:10-03:54]

• Vince Cable’s claim that he could be the next PM is viewed skeptically by Travers, though he acknowledges politics' unpredictability.
• The Lib Dems, new under Cable, are struggling to regain historical momentum lost after coalition government years, corroborating their struggle in the first-past-the-post system.
• Notable quote:

  “Being in government damaged their credibility. They did very badly in 2015, barely better in 2017. So there is still a huge mountain to climb for Vince Cable and the Lib Dems…”
  — Tony Travers [02:20]

3. Labour Party: Corbyn’s Confidence and Internal Dynamics

[03:54-05:50]

• Labour’s 2017 election performance was better than expected, leading to increased party optimism, especially among new and younger members.
• Corbyn’s leadership emboldened much of the party, fueling belief that patient opposition could lead to government.
• However, divisions persist, particularly over Brexit and between MPs and the leadership.
• Notable quote:

  “Although Labour is in a substantially better place than the Conservatives after their conference, you know, it would be naive to pretend that Labour was definitely going to win the next election.”
  — Tony Travers [04:06]

4. Conservatives: Theresa May’s Leadership and Conference Challenge

[05:50-07:45]

• The conference was meant for May to "reset the dial" after a poor election result and questions about her leadership.
• While her admission of mistakes was well-received, mishaps during her speech undermined the message of control.
• Most Tory MPs prefer avoiding further leadership turmoil for fear of something worse.
• Notable quote:

  “Most Conservative MPs… will cling to Mrs. May for fear that something worse might happen if she went.”
  — Tony Travers [06:02]

5. Brexit: Ongoing Lack of Clarity

[07:45-09:14]

• Both Labour and Conservative parties remain deeply divided over Brexit.
• As opposition, Labour’s internal divisions are less damaging than the governing Conservatives’.
• The Conservative government struggles to negotiate a unified position, with Cabinet splits over transition periods and post-Brexit arrangements.
• Lib Dems maintain a clear anti-Brexit stance but strive not to seem one-issue.
• Notable quote:

  “The progress of these negotiations is painfully slow… We don't have Cabinet unanimity here.”
  — Tony Travers [07:51]

6. Has the UK Political Centre Ground Shifted Left?

[09:14-11:54]

• Travers notes a small leftward shift in public opinion, as people are more open to higher taxes for increased spending, confirmed by social attitude surveys.
• Labour’s 2017 manifesto was moderate compared to earlier platforms, despite the party's perception as radical.
• Conservatives are criticized for unoriginal, “Labour-lite” policies and failing to connect with younger voters or recruit new members, posing a long-term risk.
• Notable quote:

  “The Conservatives are clearly not connecting with younger voters… For a party that's to survive into the future… they've got to come up with a way of modernizing themselves both in terms of policy… and their capacity to connect with the voters of tomorrow.”
  — Tony Travers [09:29]

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On changing nature of conferences:

  “They were an opportunity for activists… to meet with the party leadership, to have debates and real debates in the past… In the last 20 or so years… they've become manicured.”
  — Tony Travers [00:34]

• On the Lib Dems’ prospects:

  “Well, can't say never say never these days, but I'd say it's still quite a long way from a reality.”
  — Tony Travers [02:20]

• On Labour’s challenges:

  “It would be naive to pretend that Labour was definitely going to win the next election.”
  — Tony Travers [04:06]

• On Theresa May’s position:

  “Most Conservative MPs… will cling to Mrs. May for fear that something worse might happen if she went.”
  — Tony Travers [06:02]

• On Brexit negotiations:

  “The progress of these negotiations is painfully slow… We don't have Cabinet unanimity here.”
  — Tony Travers [07:51]

• On shifting politics:

  “A slight move towards people being willing to put up with slightly higher taxes… so possibly a slight shift to the left.”
  — Tony Travers [09:29]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:16] – Introduction & purpose of party conferences
• [02:10] – Liberal Democrats and Vince Cable’s leadership
• [03:54] – Labour Party atmosphere and internal issues
• [05:50] – Conservative Party conference & Theresa May’s leadership
• [07:45] – Brexit clarity (or lack thereof) across parties
• [09:14] – Movement of the political centre ground

Conclusion

Tony Travers provides a nuanced, candid exploration of the evolving dynamics of UK party conferences. He outlines the challenges and prospects for each major party, exposes internal fractures over Brexit, and observes a modest leftward trend in public attitudes. While Labour and Conservatives face internal and strategic uncertainties, the Liberal Democrats continue their uphill climb for relevance, and all parties are urged to respond to changing voter demographics and expectations.