Podcast Summary: Tony Travers on the 2015 General Election Result

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Host: Martin Rogers (A), LSE Film and Audio Team
Guest: Professor Tony Travers (B)
Date: 8 May 2015
Duration: ~13 minutes (excluding intros/outros/ads)

Overview

This episode explores the surprising outcome of the 2015 UK general election, in which the Conservative Party defied expectations by securing a majority. LSE’s Tony Travers joins Martin Rogers to analyze the immediate implications of the result, dissect regional voting patterns, discuss the failure of public opinion polling, and consider what these shifts portend for the country’s major political parties.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Conservative Majority Defies Expectations

• Conservatives secure a majority: Despite weeks of polls predicting a close contest or hung parliament, the Conservative Party surpasses expectations.
  • “It’s almost certain the Conservatives will have a majority... which is pretty remarkable against the backdrop of what the polls have been showing for weeks and weeks and weeks.” – Tony Travers [00:13]
• Context of party decline: In a period marked by long-term declines for both major parties and coalition government, this return to majority government is notable.

2. Victory—or Poisoned Chalice?

• Short-term win with future challenges: While the result is a clear Conservative victory, the small size of the majority may make governance difficult.
  • “It’s a great victory in the short term against expectation… [but] public finances are pretty difficult… It’s going to be a big transition.” – Tony Travers [01:01]
• Public spending & state size: The Conservatives are committed to reducing public spending to historically low levels (~36% of GDP), posing considerable challenges.
• Small majority risks: A thin majority increases the risk of backbench rebellion, especially with contentious issues like the EU referendum.

3. Winners and Losers of the Night

• Biggest winners: David Cameron (Conservatives) and Nicola Sturgeon (SNP); both strengthened their parties’ positions.
  • “It’s a remarkable election with two winners, David Cameron and then Nicholas Sturgeon, both big winners, and then a series of losers…” – Tony Travers [02:18]
• Losers: Labour (Ed Miliband), Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg), and UKIP (limited seats despite decent vote share).
  • “Cruel change… you see the brutality of the changes as they affect individuals in a remarkable and swift way.” – Tony Travers [02:59]

4. The Role of the SNP and Regional Realities

• Labour’s collapse in Scotland: Labour wiped out by the SNP, fundamentally changing Westminster’s balance.
• Electoral shifts are regional: Election results varied dramatically by nation and city.
  • “British general elections have to be analyzed regionally and… sub-nationally.” – Tony Travers [03:32]
• London outlier: Labour made gains in London, bucks the national trend.
  • “In London, there has been a swing to Labour, fascinatingly… Labour has picked up seats from the Conservatives in London, though not all the ones it expected…” – Tony Travers [04:56]
• Wales and England: England trends Conservative; Wales remains largely Labour with some Conservative gains.

5. Labour’s Devastating Result and the Coming Struggle

• Vote share stagnation: Labour’s vote share remains stagnant compared to previous elections, leading to major questions about the party’s direction.
  • “The Labour Party’s vote share… was 29% [2010], this time… 29, 30, something like that. And this begs big questions for the Labour Party…” – Tony Travers [06:10]
• Internal debate ahead: The party faces a classic struggle between leftward and Blairite (centrist) approaches.
• Complicated opposition role: Labour’s new dynamic alongside a dominant SNP on opposition benches will intensify strategic tension.

6. The Liberal Democrats’ Collapse

• Near-annihilation: The party loses the bulk of its Westminster presence, hearkening back to its lowest ebbs.
  • “They’re almost back to the point when people used to make unkind jokes about being able to fit the whole of the Liberal Party… in a mini.” – Tony Travers [08:38]
• Psychological blow & rebuilding: Years of patient local activism will be needed to rebuild, and their role as a protest party may be cemented.

7. Polling Failure and The Success of the Exit Poll

• Opinion polls miss the mark: Pre-election polls predicted a much closer contest. The exit poll, however, came strikingly close to the final result.
  • “First thing to do is to congratulate John Curtis and his colleagues with the exit poll… they’ve got it remarkably right twice in particularly difficult circumstances.” – Tony Travers [10:03]
• Possible explanations: Mistaken methodologies (“shy Tories”), limitations of sample size, or a last-minute shift. Pollsters will require a significant review.

8. Resilience of the System and Electoral Reform

• Fundamentals still matter: Despite predictions of a hung parliament, the first-past-the-post system delivers a decisive outcome—possibly dampening calls for proportional representation.
  • “Up to 9:59pm last night, I thought the first past the post system was… creaking to the point of being impossible to save… With a Conservative majority… that’s not going to happen.” – Tony Travers [11:38]
• Decline of two-party dominance: The long-term erosion of Labour and Conservative dominance continues, though this election may be a pause rather than a reversal in the trend.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “It’s almost certain the Conservatives will have a majority... which is pretty remarkable against the backdrop of what the polls have been showing for weeks and weeks and weeks.” – Tony Travers [00:13]
• “It’s a remarkable election with two winners, David Cameron and then Nicholas Sturgeon, both big winners, and then a series of losers who include the Labour Party… Liberal Democrats… frankly UKIP.” – Tony Travers [02:18]
• “British general elections have to be analyzed regionally and… sub-nationally.” – Tony Travers [03:32]
• “In London, there has been a swing to Labour, fascinatingly… Labour has picked up seats from the Conservatives in London, though not all the ones it expected…” – Tony Travers [04:56]
• “The Labour Party’s vote share… was 29% [2010], this time… 29, 30, something like that. And this begs big questions for the Labour Party…” – Tony Travers [06:10]
• “They’re almost back to the point when people used to make unkind jokes about being able to fit the whole of the Liberal Party… in a mini.” – Tony Travers [08:38]
• “First thing to do is to congratulate John Curtis and his colleagues with the exit poll… they’ve got it remarkably right twice in particularly difficult circumstances.” – Tony Travers [10:03]
• “Up to 9:59pm last night, I thought the first past the post system was… creaking to the point of being impossible to save… With a Conservative majority… that’s not going to happen.” – Tony Travers [11:38]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:13 – Early Conservative majority surprise & implications
• 01:01 – The challenges of a small Conservative majority
• 02:18 – Winners and losers of the election
• 03:32 – Impact of SNP and new regional analysis
• 04:56 – London as an electoral outlier
• 06:10 – Labour’s stagnation and strategic dilemma
• 08:38 – Liberal Democrats’ devastation and future
• 10:03 – Failure of opinion polling and success of exit poll
• 11:38 – Electoral system resilience and future of reform

Tone and Style

The discussion maintains a conversational yet incisive tone, with Tony Travers offering clear, analytical commentary peppered with gentle wit and analogies (e.g., “fit the whole of the Liberal Party in a mini"). Rogers’ questions are probing but even-handed, keeping the focus firmly on the night’s implications.

Final Thoughts

This episode provides an insightful breakdown of the seismic shifts of the 2015 UK general election. Travers highlights how, despite speculation about coalition governments and a changing political landscape, the fundamentals of British politics—and its electoral system—have proven remarkably resilient, leaving both opportunities and existential questions for the major parties going forward.