Tony Travers on the 2016 London Mayoral Election

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Episode: Tony Travers on the 2016 London Mayoral Election
Date: August 19, 2015
Host: Martin Rogers (LSE Film and Audio Team)
Guest: Professor Tony Travers

Theme:
This episode dives into the landscape of the then-upcoming 2016 London Mayoral Election, exploring the contenders from all major parties, their relative strengths, key campaign issues such as housing and transport, the extent of mayoral power, the impact of devolution, and the broader political context within which the contest takes place.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Main Candidates – The "Runners and Riders"

• Labour Party Contenders:

  • David Lammy, Diane Abbott, Gareth Thomas, Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowell, Christian Wolmar.
  • The field represents a "wide range of opportunity" from the party's left (Abbott) to its Blairite centre (Jowell). (00:10–01:52)

• Conservative Party Contenders:

  • Zac Goldsmith (seen as leading), Stephen Greenhalgh, Syed Kamall, Andrew Boff.
  • Goldsmith noted as a strong frontrunner akin to Jowell for Labour. (01:52–02:25)

• Other Parties and Independents:

  • Liberal Democrats: Caroline Pidgeon expected to lead after poor previous performance.
  • Greens: Sian Berry as notable longstanding activist.
  • Respect: George Galloway described as "very much an individual personality."
  • Independents: Siobhan Benita, noted for making "a bit of a stir" in the last race. (02:25–03:17)

Memorable Quote:
"There’s quite a range of choice. And Christian Wolmar, of course, who's really a sort of new member of the party, or not a new member, but, you know, new to politics. So quite a wide range of opportunity there.”
— Tony Travers (01:27)

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2. Key Election Issues

• Housing as Central Theme:

  • The city's population is rapidly rising (+110,000–120,000/year), but "the number of housing units... being built, 20 to 25,000" lags far behind. (03:27–04:30)
  • Calls from both parties to increase housing output to 50,000/year, requiring "a huge change."

• Transport's Enduring Relevance:

  • Historically the leading issue, now secondary to housing.
  • Ongoing debates include Crossrail 2, Bakerloo line extensions, the Night Tube.
  • "Should London get another Crossrail line once the first one is completed...? All of those things will be debated." (03:27–04:30)

Memorable Quote:
“It's interesting that if you look back into London politics 10, 20 years ago... transport was the main issue, but now it's housing.”
— Tony Travers (03:31)

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3. The Limits and Levers of the Mayor's Power

• The mayor cannot directly build housing but can “encourage the boroughs to give more planning permissions, try to stimulate the market.”
• Control over transport is clear: “you know, tubes, buses, major roads and so on, all within the Mayor’s control.”
• Funding for big projects requires negotiation with the Chancellor. (04:30–05:42)

Memorable Quote:
“The mayor doesn’t build housing. The mayor operates through the boroughs and housing associations… [but] what is [in the mayor's ambit] is Transport, of course.”
— Tony Travers (04:39)

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4. Devolution and London's “City-State” Status

• The race occurs against the backdrop of UK-wide debates about devolving more power to regions; London seen as a semi-autonomous “city state.”
• Manchester’s recent devolution deal highlighted; London candidates likely to push for “more financial power, more raising more service power.”
• “Manchester and London will probably move together on this over time... if not a city state, but greater powers for London.” (05:42–07:00)

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5. Current Strengths and Dynamics of Major Parties

• Labour:

  • Polling favors Tessa Jowell.
  • Campaign playing out amidst the “extraordinary Labour leadership campaign,” potential for national issues to influence London. (07:00–08:21)

• Conservatives:

  • Zac Goldsmith leads. His “moderate Green tinged” credentials position him distinctly, possibly able to capture second-preference votes vital under London’s voting system.
  • Possible "realignment" of city politics beyond the traditional left-right spectrum.

Memorable Quote:
“As a sincere Green candidate in an election where there are second preference votes... he could easily mop up lots of second preference votes from Greens and Liberal Democrats that could be vital.”
— Tony Travers (08:43)

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6. Zac Goldsmith’s Unique Position

• Goldsmith described as a “remarkable candidate”—son of Sir James Goldsmith, “famously a Green,” likely to attract broad cross-party support.
• Labour must strategize carefully against an “independent minded candidate like Zak Goldsmith.” (08:21–09:18)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The national leadership context has ended up as a sort of an ideological struggle between the left, some would say the far left, and Blairites...the London mayoral contest is much more contained, and it's really about who would be best candidate." — Tony Travers (00:53)

• “London does have its own government within England… So in some ways, London is already a city region with some element of devolution. Should it go further? Now many of the candidates... are saying yes, they want more financial power, more service, raising more service power.” — Tony Travers (06:00)

• “Suppose it'll be a more open race in London than was at first suggested and certainly Joe Murphy, writing in the Evening Standard, has suggested that that might be the case.” — Tony Travers (07:26)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:10 – Introduction to Labour candidates and their ideological spread
• 01:52 – Conservative shortlist overview
• 02:25 – Liberal Democrat, Green, Respect, and Independent candidates profiled
• 03:27 – Key campaign issues: housing and transport
• 04:38 – Scope of mayoral powers and constraints
• 05:42 – London in the context of UK devolution and the “city state” debate
• 07:09 – Leading positions and polling for major parties
• 08:21 – Assessment of Zac Goldsmith’s candidacy and potential impact

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Conclusion

The discussion between Martin Rogers and Professor Tony Travers provides a comprehensive preview of the unfolding 2016 London Mayoral race, highlighting the breadth of candidacies, the sharp focus on housing and transport, the growing debate around devolution, and the unique strengths and electoral mechanics likely to shape the contest. The analysis offers both data-rich context for political observers and a sense of the shifting priorities within London politics.

Transcript

[A]

Hello, welcome to Totsic. I'm Martin Rogers, here with Professor Tony Travers to discuss the race to be London Mayor. Welcome, Tony.

[B]

Hello.

[A]

So, first of all, who are the runners and riders in the contest?

[B]

Well, the Labour Party have a list of six they've got running David Lammy, Diane Abbott, Gareth Thomas, Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowl and Christian Woolmer. So it's a list of six and they've been off doing hustings around Lond. And, you know, it's a kind of interesting race, certainly, particularly in contrast with the national leadership race, actually rather more fit for purpose in its way.

[A]

Some have said that there's more talent in a way, in the race to be London Mayor rather than in the race to be the leader of the Labour Party nationally. So why is that?

[B]

Well, there's no doubt that the national leadership context has. Has ended up as a sort of an ideological struggle between the left, some would say the far left, and Blairites, and a spectrum between, but a very wide ideological struggle. Whereas the London mayoral contest is much more contained and it's really about who would be best candidate. And that's not to say there isn't a left, light, left, right, split within these candidates. You've got Diane Abbott, who's a leading supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, who is clearly on the left, but then you've got Tessa Jowl, who's a super Blairite representing that part of the party, and you know, between those, Gareth Thomas, who's a cooperative member and so on. So there's quite a range of choice. And Christian Woolmar, of course, who's really a sort of new member of the party, or not a new member, but, you know, new to politics. So quite a wide range of opportunity there.

[A]

So what about the Conservative Party, who's likely to be their candidate? Who's making the running at the moment?

[B]

Well, the Conservatives have a leading candidate in rather the way that Tessa Jowl has been seen as the leading Labour candidate so far. But for the Conservatives, Zach Goldsmith, who is the MP for Richmond, leading candidate probably, but Stephen Greenhalgh, deputy mayor at City hall at the moment, Saeed Kamal, an mep, and Andrew Boff, an Assemblymember, they're the Conservative shortlist.

[A]

So what about the candidates from the other parties?

[B]

Well, the Liberal Democrats, who really did badly last time in the Merrill race, they were squeezed by the race between Ken Livingston and Boris Johnson. They came fourth last time behind the Greens. Caroline Pidgeon, probably their leading candidate. She's an assembly member at Prince, present for the Greens. Their best known candidate, probably Sian Berry, who's been very active in green politics over a number of years. And beyond the major parties, you've got respect. Standing candidate, George Galloway, very much an individual personality all of his own. And then among the independents, Siobhan Bonito, who stood last time and caused a bit of a stir last time by managing to press herself into the contest and get an independent voice. And so she'll be standing again.

[A]

So what are the issues that are likely to be definitive in the race? Maybe for the candidates, but also for the race for City Hall.

[B]

I mean, preeminently this time, the issue is housing. It's interesting that if you look back into London politics 10, 20 years ago, certainly in the early days of the mayoralty, in the run up to 10, 2000, transport was the main issue, but now it's housing. Population of the city is growing at the rate of 110, 120,000 a year. Number of housing units, homes that are being built, 20 to 25,000. So there's a huge gap there every year. So what we're hearing from candidates, Conservative and Labour, is that London needs more housing, with big commitments, big being made to get housing numbers up to 50,000 a year, which will require a huge change. So it's housing number one, transport still there. Number two, should London get another Crossrail line once the first one is completed, extending the Bakerloo line and so on. Future of the night Tube, very much in the news recently and so on. All of those things will be debated and then there's plenty of other things for the Mayor to do. But it could be housing and transport, number one and two issues.

[A]

But what is actually within the remit of the mayor to change, and is that likely to change in itself?

[B]

Well, it's true the mayor doesn't build housing. The mayor operates through the boroughs and housing associations. And of course, there's separately challenged to the housing associations because of the government's decision to operate a sort of right to buy policy there. So there's some uncertainty there, but what the mayor has to do is to encourage the boroughs to give more planning permissions to try to stimulate the market, to get more house builders into building in the city and just to keep the whole system motoring along. I mean, you know, it's not easy. You have to say this for Ken Livingston and Boris Johnson. They found it difficult in getting difficult getting even 20, 25,000 homes built a year. So that isn't quite within the mayor's ambit, but what is, is Transport, of course, transport is, you know, tubes, buses, major roads and so on, all within the Mayor's control. But then the issue is, can they get money out of the Chancellor? Because for any big new schemes you have to get either the Chancellor's money and or the Chancellor's agreement to go ahead with the project.

[A]

So we're seeing increasing talk about devolution whilst London is being described as a city state. So is this race and perhaps the change in profile of London politics likely to have an effect on the rest of the country more widely?

[B]

I mean, London does have its own government within England and of course separately to the London mayoral race, we've got another big political issue that we've discussed before in the hot seat. Devolution across the uk, but including within England. So in some ways London is already a city region with some element of devolution. Should it go further. Now many of the candidates in the Merrill race are saying yes, they want more financial power, more service, raising more service power. So I think it will be an issue in the Merrill race. It will put pressure back on national government. And of course this is all also against the background of what's going on in Greater Manchester, where the city region there, the 10 districts there, have signed a deal with George Osborne about some devolution of power to that area. So Manchester and London will probably move together on this over time. And certainly you'd expect the London mayoral candidates to be arguing for, if not a city state, but greater powers for London.

[A]

At the risk of asking you to make a prediction, what is likely, what are the current positions of the parties?

[B]

I think what's really interesting is that the polling has shown so far that Tessa Jowl is the leading candidate for Labour and that Zach Goldsmith the leading candidate for the Conservatives. But of course Tessa Jowl and the Labour Party, their contest is all going on against the backdrop of the extraordinary Labour leadership campaign. And we can never be sure that some of what's going on in the national leadership campaign and debates won't spill over into London. Suppose it'll be a more open race in London than was at first suggested and certainly Joe Murphy, writing in the Evening Standard, has suggested that that might be the case. I think beyond that, for the Conservatives, Zach Goldsmith looks most likely to be the candidate and of course then the question is, will he, as a sort of moderate Green tinged Conservative, come across as perhaps slightly more in favour of protecting the city and anti Heathrow and all of these things, while the Labour Party is pro big infrastructure? So, you know, we could see some slight realignment even within London politics not just on a straightforward left right spectrum.

[A]

In a way is that Goldsmith quite a good candidate for this post in the similar way that Johnson was in that obviously on the metropolitan wing but with some unusual interest for a conservative candidate like you say being slightly green tinged?

[B]

Well I mean he's a remarkable candidate in many ways because he's you know he's the son of Sir James Goldsmith, you know notoriously anti European but Zach Goldsmith himself is famously a Green and there's a very real chance that as a sincere Green candidate in an election where there are second preference votes that you know he could easily mop up lots of second preference votes from Greens and Liberal Democrats that could be vital. So you know Labour's going to have to think long and hard about how they combat an independent minded candidate like Zach Goldsmith.

[A]

Great, thank you very much Tony, you're off the hot seat.

[B]

Thank you.