Episode Overview

Podcast: LSE: Public lectures and events
Episode: Tony Travers on the 2016 London Mayoral Election
Date: August 19, 2015
Host: Martin Rogers (LSE Film and Audio Team)
Guest: Professor Tony Travers

Theme:
This episode dives into the landscape of the then-upcoming 2016 London Mayoral Election, exploring the contenders from all major parties, their relative strengths, key campaign issues such as housing and transport, the extent of mayoral power, the impact of devolution, and the broader political context within which the contest takes place.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Main Candidates – The "Runners and Riders"

• Labour Party Contenders:

  • David Lammy, Diane Abbott, Gareth Thomas, Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowell, Christian Wolmar.
  • The field represents a "wide range of opportunity" from the party's left (Abbott) to its Blairite centre (Jowell). (00:10–01:52)

• Conservative Party Contenders:

  • Zac Goldsmith (seen as leading), Stephen Greenhalgh, Syed Kamall, Andrew Boff.
  • Goldsmith noted as a strong frontrunner akin to Jowell for Labour. (01:52–02:25)

• Other Parties and Independents:

  • Liberal Democrats: Caroline Pidgeon expected to lead after poor previous performance.
  • Greens: Sian Berry as notable longstanding activist.
  • Respect: George Galloway described as "very much an individual personality."
  • Independents: Siobhan Benita, noted for making "a bit of a stir" in the last race. (02:25–03:17)

Memorable Quote:
"There’s quite a range of choice. And Christian Wolmar, of course, who's really a sort of new member of the party, or not a new member, but, you know, new to politics. So quite a wide range of opportunity there.”
— Tony Travers (01:27)

2. Key Election Issues

• Housing as Central Theme:

  • The city's population is rapidly rising (+110,000–120,000/year), but "the number of housing units... being built, 20 to 25,000" lags far behind. (03:27–04:30)
  • Calls from both parties to increase housing output to 50,000/year, requiring "a huge change."

• Transport's Enduring Relevance:

  • Historically the leading issue, now secondary to housing.
  • Ongoing debates include Crossrail 2, Bakerloo line extensions, the Night Tube.
  • "Should London get another Crossrail line once the first one is completed...? All of those things will be debated." (03:27–04:30)

Memorable Quote:
“It's interesting that if you look back into London politics 10, 20 years ago... transport was the main issue, but now it's housing.”
— Tony Travers (03:31)

3. The Limits and Levers of the Mayor's Power

• The mayor cannot directly build housing but can “encourage the boroughs to give more planning permissions, try to stimulate the market.”
• Control over transport is clear: “you know, tubes, buses, major roads and so on, all within the Mayor’s control.”
• Funding for big projects requires negotiation with the Chancellor. (04:30–05:42)

Memorable Quote:
“The mayor doesn’t build housing. The mayor operates through the boroughs and housing associations… [but] what is [in the mayor's ambit] is Transport, of course.”
— Tony Travers (04:39)

4. Devolution and London's “City-State” Status

• The race occurs against the backdrop of UK-wide debates about devolving more power to regions; London seen as a semi-autonomous “city state.”
• Manchester’s recent devolution deal highlighted; London candidates likely to push for “more financial power, more raising more service power.”
• “Manchester and London will probably move together on this over time... if not a city state, but greater powers for London.” (05:42–07:00)

5. Current Strengths and Dynamics of Major Parties

• Labour:

  • Polling favors Tessa Jowell.
  • Campaign playing out amidst the “extraordinary Labour leadership campaign,” potential for national issues to influence London. (07:00–08:21)

• Conservatives:

  • Zac Goldsmith leads. His “moderate Green tinged” credentials position him distinctly, possibly able to capture second-preference votes vital under London’s voting system.
  • Possible "realignment" of city politics beyond the traditional left-right spectrum.

Memorable Quote:
“As a sincere Green candidate in an election where there are second preference votes... he could easily mop up lots of second preference votes from Greens and Liberal Democrats that could be vital.”
— Tony Travers (08:43)

6. Zac Goldsmith’s Unique Position

• Goldsmith described as a “remarkable candidate”—son of Sir James Goldsmith, “famously a Green,” likely to attract broad cross-party support.
• Labour must strategize carefully against an “independent minded candidate like Zak Goldsmith.” (08:21–09:18)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The national leadership context has ended up as a sort of an ideological struggle between the left, some would say the far left, and Blairites...the London mayoral contest is much more contained, and it's really about who would be best candidate." — Tony Travers (00:53)

• “London does have its own government within England… So in some ways, London is already a city region with some element of devolution. Should it go further? Now many of the candidates... are saying yes, they want more financial power, more service, raising more service power.” — Tony Travers (06:00)

• “Suppose it'll be a more open race in London than was at first suggested and certainly Joe Murphy, writing in the Evening Standard, has suggested that that might be the case.” — Tony Travers (07:26)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:10 – Introduction to Labour candidates and their ideological spread
• 01:52 – Conservative shortlist overview
• 02:25 – Liberal Democrat, Green, Respect, and Independent candidates profiled
• 03:27 – Key campaign issues: housing and transport
• 04:38 – Scope of mayoral powers and constraints
• 05:42 – London in the context of UK devolution and the “city state” debate
• 07:09 – Leading positions and polling for major parties
• 08:21 – Assessment of Zac Goldsmith’s candidacy and potential impact

Conclusion

The discussion between Martin Rogers and Professor Tony Travers provides a comprehensive preview of the unfolding 2016 London Mayoral race, highlighting the breadth of candidacies, the sharp focus on housing and transport, the growing debate around devolution, and the unique strengths and electoral mechanics likely to shape the contest. The analysis offers both data-rich context for political observers and a sense of the shifting priorities within London politics.