LSE Public Lectures and Events

Episode: Tony Travers on the Oldham By-election

Date: December 14, 2015
Host: Martin Rodgers
Guest: Tony Travers

Overview

In this episode, Martin Rodgers interviews political analyst Tony Travers about the significance and implications of the recent Oldham West and Royton by-election. The conversation delves into what the result means for the Labour Party, the performance and prospects of Ukip, and the broader political trends in the UK. Travers offers expert perspective on electoral dynamics, candidate selection, and the ongoing tensions within Labour under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is the Oldham By-election Business as Usual?

• Unexpected Result: Travers describes the by-election as not business as usual, especially for Labour, given recent political turbulence, including the Syria vote and media speculation about a possible Ukip upset.
• Labour’s Relief: The result—Labour holding and increasing their vote share—was better than many expected.
• Local vs. National Implications: He argues that by-elections often reflect local dynamics and rarely predict national trends.
  • Quote:

    "I think nothing's business as usual at the moment, particularly for the Labour Party...there'll be a sigh of relief at the top of the Labour Party." (00:12, Tony Travers)

2. Objective Numbers vs. Subjective Expectations

• Demographics Supported Labour: The constituency’s large South Asian Muslim population (about 25%) and Labour’s historical dominance set an objective advantage for their candidate.
• Media Expectations: Media narratives had hyped the chance of a Ukip victory, contrasting with demographic realities.
• Message Limited Nationally: Travers cautions against overgeneralizing the result, noting that mid-term by-elections rarely predict general election success.
  • Quote:

    "...the generalizable message from this by election, as from most by elections, is limited, remembering that governments often lose by election in mid term and then win the next general election." (01:41, Tony Travers)

3. Ukip’s Performance and Prospects

• A Disappointing Result for Ukip: Despite favorable conditions and an increased share of the vote, Ukip failed to win or make a breakthrough.
• Long-term Impact: Repeated failures in winnable seats could damage Ukip's perceived viability.
  • Quote:

    "...the greater the risk to them is that the electorate begins to see them as incapable of winning. So, you know, it's a bad result, I think, for Ukip." (02:41, Tony Travers)

• Future Threats: Ukip can still take votes from both Labour and Conservatives, potentially influencing outcomes in future local and general elections, especially in certain demographics and regions.
• Next Battlegrounds: The real test will be upcoming local elections, particularly in northern and Midland areas with poorer, predominantly white populations.
  • Quote:

    "So that can't be taken away from them. And I think when it comes to the local elections next year, it will be interesting to see if the kind of vote share that they received in the Oldham by election translates through..." (03:45, Tony Travers)

4. Significance of Vote Share Shifts

• Labour and Ukip Growth: Both parties increased their share, but Labour’s lead was decisive.
• Ukip’s Role as Main Challenger: Ukip’s position as main opposition to Labour is notable, but the outcome was still disappointing for them.
• Local Results as a Bellwether: If Ukip can't turn by-election vote shares into actual local council victories, their future prospects are limited.
  • Quote:

    "...if they don't, then we know...that they are going to find it really hard to make much further progress even in local elections, even when conditions are going quite well for them." (04:49, Tony Travers)

5. Candidate Selection and Local Government’s Role

• Jim McMahon’s Candidacy: The Labour win is partly credited to the prominent, well-regarded local council leader, Jim McMahon, who represents the moderate, non-Corbynite wing.
• Pathway from Local to National: Travers notes a trend of centre-ground Labour council leaders entering Parliament, which could set up tensions with the national Labour leadership.
  • Quote:

    "From the Labour Party nationalist point of view, I think he's exactly the kind of candidate that Moderate, non Corbynite MPs would like to see joining their ranks." (05:54, Tony Travers)

6. Implications for Jeremy Corbyn’s Leadership

• Reduced Pressure: The comfortable victory relieves some of the immediate pressure on Corbyn.
• Intra-party Tensions Persist: While leadership critics are now forced to wait, party divisions remain unresolved.
• Short-term Reprieve: This win offers Corbyn’s leadership breathing space but doesn’t resolve larger questions about the Labour Party’s direction.
  • Quote:

    "Corbyn himself has said he will carry on, he's not going anywhere. And so the standoff between the new Labour leadership...and the Parliamentary Labour Party...survives to another day, another week, another month." (07:30, Tony Travers)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Labour’s Surprise at Holding Their Ground:

  "Labour held on, increased their vote share and I think that inevitably will be read by the leadership, Jeremy Corbyn in particular, as being the best that could possibly have happened." (00:12)

• On By-elections as Indicators:

  "So I don't think this tells us anything really much about the Labour Party's future either." (01:41)

• On Ukip’s Prospects:

  "The longer Ukip goes on not winning in seats like this...the greater the risk to them is that the electorate begins to see them as incapable of winning." (02:41)

• On Local Government’s Talent Pool:

  "...many of whom are actually much more to the centre mainstream of the Labour Party than the new leadership. And that's going to have to be resolved..." (05:54)

• On the Temporary Relief for Corbyn:

  "...the standoff between the new Labour leadership, particularly the core of it...and the Parliamentary Labour Party lives to...survives to another day, another week, another month." (07:30)

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:12 – Discussion on the event’s newsworthiness and Labour’s relief
• 01:10 – Analysis of voting demographics and expectations vs. outcome
• 02:41 – Impact of the result on Ukip and their prospects
• 03:45 – Future challenges and implications for Ukip in local elections
• 04:49 – Significance of vote share shifts and what they suggest
• 05:54 – Importance of candidate selection and local government leaders entering Parliament
• 07:30 – Implications of the result for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership

Tone and Style

The conversation is analytical, pragmatic, and mildly humorous, with Travers providing cautious, evidence-based commentary and Rodgers steering the discussion through key political concerns.

Summary Takeaway

The Oldham by-election provided a morale boost for Labour and a reprieve for Jeremy Corbyn while underscoring the limits of by-elections as portentous national signals. Ukip’s inability to convert potential into victory casts doubt on their long-term prospects, whereas the ascendance of locally-rooted, centrist Labour figures like Jim McMahon may foreshadow further internal Party jockeying. The episode offers a thoughtful, measured look at the real significance—rather than the spectacle—of by-election results for UK politics.