Loading summary
Transcript15 lines
- [00:01]
A
This month, representatives from 192 countries will convene in Copenhagen to address global climate change. Hi, I'm Justin Guest. Welcome to the Government Department hot seat. With us today to discuss the prospects of this conference is Dr. Stephanie Ricard from the government department. Thank you for being here.
- [00:16]
B
Thank you.
- [00:17]
A
Alright, well, let's get started. In advance of Christmas, what do you think is on most environmentalists wish list for this conference? What do they want to see produced?
- [00:26]
B
Unfortunately, I think they know they're not going to get what's on their wish list. Their expectations have really been dialed back. They know there's not going to be a binding agreement agreed upon at Copenhagen. And so I think the most that they're looking for is some sort of political agreement, some sort of consensus that although it's not binding, it's an agreement to continue the discussion next year.
- [00:45]
A
Well, it seems like getting developing countries like China and India on board is of paramount importance. What tools do industrialized countries have to persuade their developing partners?
- [00:56]
B
Unfortunately, they don't have that many tools. I mean, they've already made concessions in terms of trade. They're already investing a lot of capital into these countries, so they don't have a lot of economic chips that they can use to try to extract concessions from them. We have seen some success. We've seen China and India put some agreements on the table and say this is what we're willing to do. Unfortunately, they're not particularly concrete and they don't go as far as we would like. And so it doesn't seem like the developed countries are actually able to get concessions from the developing countries. The EU has tried to do it through moral leadership by saying this is what we're committed to doing. Well, you made us at least halfway or part of the way, but so far that's been unsuccessful.
- [01:39]
A
Well, in recent years a market for climate friendly goods and emissions trading has really taken off and it seems to be incentivizing corporate and national states awareness of climate issues. Are these tools more powerful than diplomacy?
- [01:54]
B
It certainly is true that there's been a market developed for green products and this is particularly true in the eu. The EU is sort of banking on the power of markets. The EU is saying we're going to be at the cutting edge, we're going to promote these green policies, these regulations, and they're really hoping that when the rest of the countries sign on to this, they're going to be at the forefront. They're going to already have made these progress, progress, progressive moves. They're already going to have the green tech. And so the EU is really banking on these market pressures and saying we're going to have a competitive edge because we're doing it first. Unfortunately, that only works if other countries sign on. And right now, the EU is in a very precarious position already. Companies like Shell have said they're potentially going to withdraw a little bit of investment or not put as much energy or resources into the EU precisely because they're the really only country out there right now, or only block of countries that have gone as far in environment agreements and environmental emission reductions.
- [02:51]
A
Well, speaking of other countries, perhaps President Obama has been hailed as a potential deal breaker here in the sense that he might have great influence over these talks. How much do you think that he can change the tide of negotiations?
- [03:06]
B
Unfortunately, I don't think he can do a lot. I mean, I think he is doing something very symbolic by coming. And that's an important symbolic step that he's coming. He's saying that this is important, but his hands are really tied by the U.S. congress, by the U.S. senate. And so while he has to speak to the international audience and try to be as persuasive as he can, he also has to be mindful of his domestic audience. And right now, the Cap and Trade bill is sitting in the Senate. It's not going to be signed before he goes to Copenhagen. It's not even going to be really on the agenda until the spring. It's been bogged down by the health care debate. And so President Obama's ability to set the agenda or extract concessions is really limited precisely because of the domestic politics at home.
- [03:49]
A
Well, in the end, what key obstacles are making so many observers pessimistic about Copenhagen?
- [03:54]
B
The key obstacle is, of course, the size of the emission reductions, but really it's about cost and about money. And that's been the key obstacle to date, and it's going to continue to be the key obstacle, particularly in this era of the financial and the economic crisis. So it's really about cost. That's the main barrier, both in terms of the cost to the companies domestically, but for abiding by these regulations, but also the cost to the countries. One of the big stumbling blocks beyond just the level of emission reductions has been how much money are the developed countries going to pool together to assist the developing countries in meeting emission targets, in getting clean tech, and in coping with the destructive effects of global climate change. And so that debate about how much money to pool together and where to get that money from has been a particularly divisive issue.
- [04:45]
A
All right, that'll do it. Dr. Stephanie Ricard, you are off the hot seat. Thanks very much for being with us.
- [04:50]
B
Thank you.
- [04:51]
A
And thank you for being with us. Stay tuned for next month's edition of the Government Department. Hot seat. Thanks.