Podcast
Macro Mondays
Hosted by Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold · EN
Each and every Sunday, former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea Bank, Andreas Steno, invites colleagues and friends of Steno Research to share their views on the world of macro and geopolitics with loads of actionable content.
We will maintain FULL independence without capital interests in having specific views and provide 100% transparency around how we trade and view the world
The podcast will be the most entertaining and yet serious podcast in the Macro Space and as you will notice our trade ideas will be “SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE SHIT” (Listen to understand the context)
Find out more about Steno Research with the 30% discount code “macro30” at www.stenoresearch.com/subscribe
75episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
U.S. Rescues The Yen | Macro Mondays August 3, 2026
4d ago00:26:29Summary readyAndreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Monarch 01:23 - US Intervention to Support the Yen: What Markets Need to Know04:45 - Why the US Stepped Into the Japanese Yen Market06:03 - Iran Talks Resume as Trump Calls Off Planned Strikes07:32 - The Sinus-Wave War: Why Markets Are Panicking Less08:49 - Oil Flows, Strait of Hormuz, and the Risk Premium Fading11:16 - What Trump Really Needs From a New Iran Deal14:07 - Inflation Is Falling Faster Than the Fed Realizes18:40 - Strong PMI, Higher Real Rates, and the Momentum Selloff19:48 - Microsoft vs Alphabet: The AI CapEx Accounting Divide22:21 - Why Memory Chips Could Be More Valuable Than GPUs24:56 - Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Hedge-Fund Implosion26:08 - Global Macro Opportunities and Why the Dollar Could Weaken#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryChina Just Shocked The AI Race | Macro Mondays: July 20, 2026
3w ago00:30:29Summary readyAndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:01:30 - Kimi AI Shock: Has China Taken the Lead?02:28 - Kimi K3 vs ChatGPT and Claude: What the Benchmarks Really Show05:30 - Why China’s AI Catch-Up Could Boost Hardware Demand08:22 - Software vs Semiconductors: Who Actually Loses From Cheaper AI?14:39 - Momentum Crash: What Triggered the Sell-Off in AI Stocks?16:43 - Iran War Escalates as the IRGC Rebuilds Its War Chest21:24 - How Long Can the US Withstand the Oil Supply Disruption?23:45 - Why Oil Is Unlikely to Break Above $100 Again28:06 - Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, and the Next Portfolio Opportunities#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryWhy Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays July 13, 2026
4w ago00:31:45Summary readyAndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything – accounts, investments, savings, and spending. Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry? 02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall?08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower?15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked?22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Summary
The Fed's Mistake | Macro Mondays: July 6, 2026
Jul 600:31:13Summary readyAndreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryIs Everyone Wrong About the Dollar? | Macro Mondays: June 26, 2026
Jun 2900:30:34Summary readyAndreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech.Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.🔥 Our Biggest Sale Ever, Don't Miss the Generational Setup realvision.com/pricing00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview 03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing?09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar?13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again?17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk#macromondays #realvision #andreassteno #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitcs #macro 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryIs Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026
Jun 2200:23:31Summary readyAndreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized.01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know 03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryIs The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays
Jun 1500:25:00Summary readyAndreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!?00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets 02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $7008:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryPanic or No Panic? | Macro Mondays: June 8, 2026
Jun 800:29:19Summary readyAndreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer.Timestamps:01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff?07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next?12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #Iran #jobs 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Summary3 Banger Trades For June | Macro Mondays: June 1, 2026
Jun 100:29:55Summary readyAndreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets.Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe 01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas 02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire?07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz?12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
SummaryIs Iran War Deal Imminent? | Macro Mondays: May 25, 2025
May 2500:29:21Summary readyReal Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans?07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz?10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation?18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 202624:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June?25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Connect with Real Vision™ Online:YouTube: youtube.com/@RealVisionFinanceTwitter: https://rvtv.io/twitterInstagram: https://rvtv.io/instagramWebsite: https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5PwDisclaimer: https://media.realvision.com/wp/20231004185303/Disclaimer-1.pdf
Summary