MacroVoices #355: Understanding All Things Nuclear

Podcast: Macro Voices
Host: Erik Townsend
Guest: Mark Nelson, Nuclear Engineer & Consultant
Date: December 22, 2022
Duration: ~2.5 hours

Episode Overview

In this year-end special, Erik Townsend delivers a deep-dive, long-form episode focusing on understanding the nuclear energy landscape. Guest Mark Nelson, a nuclear engineer and pro-nuclear advocate, addresses the history, promise, failures, misperceptions, real problems, and modern advancements in nuclear technology. The episode aims to arm listeners—particularly investors—with the knowledge needed to navigate coming energy crises and the potential nuclear renaissance.

Structure

• Opening Roadmap & Context: The significance of abundant, cheap energy for societies
• Feature Interview: Mark Nelson on nuclear’s past, real and perceived risks, technological evolution, economics, and regulatory/policy landscape
• Key Issues Covered: Safety, waste, weapons proliferation, technological innovation (including SMRs and molten salt reactors), fuel cycles, and investment themes

Detailed Summary

1. Why Nuclear? Why Now?

[02:03-06:21]

• Core Premise: Societal complexity and wealth directly result from abundant, affordable energy.
• Oil and gas are finite, and renewables alone can only cover about half of humanity’s future energy needs.
• The coming years will bring an unavoidable energy crisis as oil and gas become scarcer and more expensive, creating generational investment opportunities especially in crude oil, uranium, and nuclear tech stocks.
• Quote:
  “Societal complexity is a function of the amount of abundant and affordable energy available to the economy.” —Erik Townsend [06:32]

2. The Nuclear Dilemma in Society

[06:32-23:05]

• Nuclear’s reputation has been marred by high-profile disasters, cost overruns, and policy missteps (e.g., Germany’s decommissioning).
• Erik makes clear he’s not dismissing nuclear’s real safety, proliferation, or waste problems—but modern technology is positioned to solve them.
• “It’s time to decide what the next big thing will be to follow oil, gas, and coal on the energy stage… Renewables only solve part of that problem. This planet simply cannot support 8 billion human inhabitants without the amount of energy we now derive from fossil fuels.” —Erik Townsend [14:54]

3. Mark Nelson’s Journey to Nuclear Advocacy

[24:14-26:44]

• Mark’s path began after a “life-changing” Kirk Sorensen YouTube video about thorium reactors.
• Felt nuclear could “power the world for a billion years without carbon emissions.”
• Quote:
  “Once I heard that opening pitch, I pretty much knew that I was going to do nuclear energy… There was this political side to it… a great treasure we weren’t using.”—Mark Nelson [25:24]

4. Where to Learn More

[27:50-30:36]

• Recommendations:
  • WhatIsNuclear.com (Nick Turan)
  • World Nuclear Association’s online library
  • Decouple Media Group podcast (Dr. Chris Kiefer)
  • Mark’s Twitter: @EnergyBants

5. History and Economics of Nuclear

[30:36-35:03]

• Nuclear power from the ’70s was promised as “too cheap to meter,” but delivered mixed results. Nuclear remains cheap per kWh over operational lifetimes, but upfront costs and public opposition limited its use.
• High operational efficiency has exceeded initial projections (e.g., Diablo Canyon’s 90%+ capacity factor).
• Industry was decimated by cost overruns and loss of institutional construction memory.

6. Why Gigantic Cost Overruns?

[35:03-40:16]

• Nuclear plants like Vogtle were built with incomplete designs by teams with no prior nuclear experience, resulting in billions in overruns.
• Insight: The crisis is not the technology, but the skills and execution capability in project management and labor.

7. Perceived vs. Real Nuclear Risks

A. Operational Safety (Meltdowns)

[42:10-54:01]

• Chernobyl: Unique, catastrophic design flaws—plant continued operating for years post-accident.
• Three Mile Island & Fukushima: Slow, non-explosive meltdowns—few/no casualties from radiation.
• Key Point:
  “The mine safety code in Canada is written in blood. Well, unfortunately, that’s the way a lot of engineering works.” —Mark Nelson [53:00]
• True Modernity: Industry-wide self-regulation (peer reports by WANO) drives safety reform more than government oversight.

B. Waste Disposal

[54:01-71:08]

• “55-gallon drum” imagery is misleading: True high-level waste is stored in ultra-thick, robust containers, with zero cases of environmental catastrophe in civilian nuclear energy history.
• After 50 years, 99% of radioactive decay is complete; true danger period is much shorter than often depicted.
• Dutch model: Onsite interim storage + cultural/educational approach, with potential future burial if society desires it.
• Quote:
  “If something is radioactive for a million years, it’s not very radioactive.” —Mark Nelson [56:40]

C. Proliferation

[71:08-76:42]

• Proliferation is mostly decoupled from standard power reactors—countries intent on weapons pursue special equipment, not routine reprocessing.
• “A feeling of security leads to countries maybe not wanting nuclear energy or weapons. And a feeling of insecurity can induce directions towards both.” —Mark Nelson [75:54]

8. Mark Nelson’s “Real” Nuclear Industry Challenges

[76:57-84:34]

• Nuclear requires an unusually high degree of societal competence, talent, and trust; countries lacking institutional know-how will struggle.
• The economic model can be undermined by intermittent renewables if market design doesn’t value stable baseload power.
• Upfront capital costs may be prohibitive after a deep recession.
• “Nuclear involves people. It involves trust. Nuclear is as big as society. If you cannot ask anything of society and you cannot count on society, it may become difficult to count on nuclear.” —Mark Nelson [78:00]

9. Fast Breeder Reactors & Waste Recycling

[90:06-98:01]

• Fast reactors (“fast neutron reactors”) let us “close the fuel cycle”—extracting 90–95% of the energy from spent fuel.
• Russia is currently leading in deploying this tech, which could reduce overall nuclear waste stockpiles.

10. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): Gen-Z Buzzword or Future Solution?

[98:01-108:17]

• SMRs—marketed as faster, cheaper, and safer due to factory manufacturing and modularity.
• Mark is skeptical: Many SMRs contain more “marketing” than substance; sometimes it’s just size reduction, not cost or safety innovation.
• Quote:
  “For most applications, SMR is a marketing term that does not guarantee whether a reactor is small or not, doesn’t really guarantee whether it’s seriously modular or not...” —Mark Nelson [100:06]
• True scaling benefits will emerge only if building large projects regains lost competencies. SMRs aren’t a panacea.

11. Advanced Reactors: Heavy Water & Molten Salt

[108:17-123:37]

• Heavy water reactors: Can operate on unenriched uranium (reduces proliferation risk); can also use thorium+uranium blends.
• Molten salt reactors: Operate at atmospheric pressure, offer higher efficiencies, and greatly reduce meltdown risk (“literally shut themselves down automatically”—Erik [143:48]).
• Regulatory acceptance—especially in the U.S.—is a major hurdle for deploying these advanced designs.
• Quote:
  “Nature abhors a vacuum—and a relative vacuum is created when you have a highly pressurized bottle and a low-pressure atmosphere… If you have any heat engine...the maximum efficiency...is limited by how hot the hottest temperature is and how much work you can do at those high temperatures...that’s going to come from molten salts.” —Mark Nelson [109:10 & 117:21]

12. Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Bottlenecks

[123:37-132:28]

• Key Points:
  • Uranium enrichment bottlenecks are critical (Russia dominates this supply chain).
  • Conversion (making uranium gas) and enrichment (separating U235 from U238 via centrifuges or lasers) are potential investment flashpoints.
  • If Russia cuts off enrichment services, Western investment/opportunities in laser enrichment (Silex, Cameco) will spike.
• Quote:
  “Somebody is going to collect economic rents for some time in this bottleneck.” —Mark Nelson [127:21]

13. Thorium: Holy Grail or Red Herring?

[132:28-139:51]

• Thorium is much more available than uranium, and “the price of thorium is literally negative right now.”
• Regulatory and technical inertia means thorium’s revolutionary role is overhyped for the foreseeable future in the West.
• Most benefits ascribed to thorium designs are actually properties of molten salt reactor designs, not the thorium fuel itself.
• Quote:
  “Thorium, a little bitty atom, is left to bear a very heavy weight for solving all the world’s problems when much of that is a solution that comes from any effective increase of nuclear electricity itself.” —Mark Nelson [140:29]

14. Further Resources & Closing Thoughts

[141:24-end]

• Mark suggests donating to Mothers for Nuclear and following Clean Core Thorium Energy and his own consultancy, Radiant Energy Group.
• Erik closes by highlighting the opportunity and necessity of learning about new nuclear technologies now, before public policy and investment flows flip in response to the coming energy crisis.

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• "Societal complexity is a function of the amount of abundant and affordable energy available to the economy." —Erik Townsend [06:32]
• "If something is radioactive for a million years, it’s not very radioactive." —Mark Nelson [56:40]
• "Nuclear involves people. It involves trust. Nuclear is as big as society. If you cannot ask anything of society and you cannot count on society, it may become difficult to count on nuclear." —Mark Nelson [78:00]
• "For most applications, SMR is a marketing term..." —Mark Nelson [100:06]
• "The mine safety code in Canada is written in blood... Unfortunately, that's the way a lot of engineering works." —Mark Nelson [53:00]
• "Molten salt reactor designs literally shut themselves down automatically with zero meltdown risk." —Erik Townsend [143:48]

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------------|-----------------| | Erik's opening monologue & thesis | 02:03–22:44 | | Mark’s backstory and initial resources | 24:14–30:36 | | Nuclear’s failed promises/cost challenges | 30:36–40:16 | | Real vs. perceived risks | 40:16–76:42 | | Real drawbacks of nuclear | 76:57–84:34 | | Fuel recycling / fast reactors | 90:06–98:01 | | SMRs & modular construction | 98:01–108:17 | | Advanced reactors (molten salt, etc.) | 108:17–123:37 | | Fuel cycle & enrichment bottlenecks | 123:37–132:28 | | Thorium and its complexities | 132:28–141:00 | | Resources and closing notes | 141:24–end |

Practical Takeaways for Listeners

• Nuclear’s renaissance is coming—but not before a major energy crisis catalyzes policy/political shift.
• Most nuclear “problems” (waste, risk, proliferation) are manageable or exaggerated; real hurdles are institutional and project management-related.
• Advanced designs (molten salt, fast breeders) can fundamentally change safety, efficiency, and waste profiles—but regulatory inertia is a roadblock.
• Investors should monitor opportunities in uranium mining, enrichment bottlenecks, and advanced reactor vendors. Be wary of SMR “hype” and focus on substance.
• Public acceptance will only shift dramatically when energy scarcity and price pain outweigh legacy fears.

For more information, all resources mentioned by Mark Nelson are linked in the Research Roundup email that accompanies the episode.