MacroVoices #518: Dr. Anas Alhajji - Debunking The 2026 Oil Bear Narrative

Release Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Erik Townsend
Guest: Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors

Episode Overview

Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Anas Alhajji for an in-depth discussion on the true state of the 2026 oil market, challenging widespread bearish narratives. The conversation unpacks recent market events, debunks claims of oil oversupply, and explores the impact of geopolitics, policy, and market structure on oil prices leading into the U.S. midterm elections. The two also touch on the broader implications of U.S. strategy, the role of China, and potential trade setups for investors navigating headline-driven volatility.

Table of Contents

1. 2025–2026 Oil Market Recap
2. Debunking the Oil Surplus Narrative
3. Outlook to the 2026 Elections & the Trump Factor
4. Geopolitical Flashpoints: Venezuela, Iran, Russia/Ukraine
5. Three Big Events in Energy This Week
6. Shale Production & Crude Quality Risks
7. AI, Energy Abundance, and U.S. Strategy
8. Notable Quotes
9. Key Timestamps
10. Actionable Market Views – Post Game Discussion

1. 2025–2026 Oil Market Recap <a name="recap"></a>

• Dr. Alhajji revisits his forecast from 2024: Predicted oil would be range-bound in the $70s for 2025. Reality saw prices average $69 due to unexpected OPEC+ production increases.
• Key market dynamics missed: OPEC+’s decision was not based solely on global demand but on rising demand for their own oil due to sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela (05:08).
• Major market events:
  • Kazakhstan: Significant export disruptions due to attacks on the CPC terminal, with unclear attribution (07:10).
  • Brazil: Sharp drop in crude exports.
  • Iran/Iraq: Severe winter led Iran to halt gas exports, forcing Iraq to burn more oil, curbing its own exports.
  • North America: Winter storms impacted oil production in the U.S. and Mexico (12:30).

Notable insight:

“For the Group of Eight in OPEC, they started unwinding voluntary cuts not because of robust global demand, but because demand for their oil was going up due to sanctions on others.” — Dr. Anas Alhajji [05:08]

2. Debunking the Oil Surplus Narrative <a name="debunking-surplus"></a>

• Widespread media claims: IEA, Bloomberg, and major banks forecasted a 2026 oil surplus based on inventory builds and production data.
• Why Alhajji disagrees:
  • Inventory math error: The U.S. government’s additions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are being double-counted as market supply, distorting the true surplus (17:22).
  • China’s inventories: Majority of global oil inventory builds have occurred in China, which is hoarding energy (oil, gas, coal) for strategic reasons—not for commercial use, akin to an SPR (20:30).
  • “Manufactured surplus”: Agencies underestimated U.S. oil demand and misclassified non-commercial stockpiling as surplus (24:00).

Notable insight:

“Most of that increase in inventories in China are based on strategic decisions… That oil should be counted the same way we count the U.S. SPR; it’s not a surplus.” — Dr. Anas Alhajji [20:30]

3. Outlook to the 2026 Elections & the Trump Factor <a name="trump-outlook"></a>

• Range-bound oil prices predicted: Brent expected to hover in the $60s throughout 2026, with headline-driven spikes possible (26:36).
• Impact of Chinese inventories: If prices rise above $70 Brent, China likely to release oil from storage, effectively capping further rallies (26:36).
• Trump’s aims: While he wants $55 WTI, the structure doesn’t support a further drop, but low prices suffice for political aims (26:36).

Notable insight:

“If oil prices start rising, China will do the dirty work for President Trump... That’s why we predict the prices to be in the $60s range bound for Brent in 2026.” — Dr. Anas Alhajji [26:36]

4. Geopolitical Flashpoints: Venezuela, Iran, Russia/Ukraine <a name="geopolitics"></a>

Venezuela (28:09):

• Opening up to Western firms could eventually add 1 million barrels/day, but would take three years and require massive investment ($20B+). Net bearish impact on prices is negligible given global decline rates and growing demand.

Iran (36:51):

• The U.S. and regional powers realize regime collapse risks chaos/migration; thus, full confrontation is avoided.
• Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is highly unlikely—it’s against Iran’s own interest and would primarily harm Asian importers, not the U.S. or Israel.

Russia/Ukraine (40:11):

• Even if the war ends, Russian oil production cannot increase meaningfully. Exports would fall as Russia repairs refineries and domestic appetite rises.
• Key changes would be in shipping: aging “dark fleet” tankers would be retired, altering the logistics and costs (41:00).
• U.S. LNG sanctions on Russia won’t be easily lifted post-war, as LNG has become core to U.S. national security (43:30).

5. Three Big Events in Energy This Week <a name="three-events"></a>

Dr. Alhajji’s Top Three to Watch:

1. Saudi Aramco’s Official Selling Prices (OSPs) (44:49):

   • Market expects a cut; Dr. Alhajji predicts prices will remain flat or even increase, signaling tightness.

2. EIA Shale Production Data (45:20):

   • The November data will reveal if U.S. shale growth continues, particularly in New Mexico. If shale peaks while SPR building continues, it’s bullish for prices.

3. Iran Negotiations (45:54):

   • Outcome will swing markets: progress could bring prices down; collapse would prompt a quick $2-3 spike.

6. Shale Production & Crude Quality Risks <a name="shale-crude-quality"></a>

• U.S. shale "revolution" is stalling: A “terminal peak” is not here yet, but growth is flattening. If prices rise above $120, more shale could come online (48:20).
• Future risk: Without new sources, decline rates globally could open a chasm vs. demand growth, creating periodic price spikes (48:20).
• Crude quality:
  • U.S. exports light sweet crude because of refinery limitations—future demand for light sweet may peak soon.
  • Canadian oil is preferable to Venezuelan for U.S. refiners (32:00+).

Notable insight:

“What we are going to suffer in the future from is this gap: demand is growing linearly while the production is growing like stair steps… that gap will lead to price spikes.” — Dr. Anas Alhajji [48:20]

7. AI, Energy Abundance, and U.S. Strategy <a name="ai-energy-strategy"></a>

• Emerging U.S. strategy: To lead in AI and national security, the U.S. must guarantee abundant, cheap energy—likely making energy policy even more central in the next Trump term (52:06).
• Nuclear won’t save the day quickly: Nuclear’s long lead time means natural gas will likely serve as the “bridging fuel” for any near-term AI-driven energy demand (53:39).
• Future deep dive teased: Alhajji suggests a follow-up session focused on AI, Trump, and the intersection with energy/nuclear policy (52:06, 53:39).

8. Notable Quotes <a name="notable-quotes"></a>

• On Debunking Surplus:
  “...this surplus idea basically has no legs. The bearish story is manufactured; it’s made up in Excel sheets.”
  — Dr. Anas Alhajji [24:00]

• On Trump’s Energy Leverage:
  “If oil prices start rising, China will do the dirty work for Trump... That’s why we predict range bound prices.”
  — Dr. Anas Alhajji [26:36]

• On the Russia/Ukraine Oil Impact:
  “Russia cannot increase its production anymore. If we end up with peace, Russian exports will decline. That is bullish.”
  — Dr. Anas Alhajji [40:11]

• On U.S. Long-Term Energy Strategy:
  “You cannot have AI and be years ahead of China without energy. That energy has to be abundant and cheap.”
  — Dr. Anas Alhajji [52:06]

9. Key Timestamps <a name="key-timestamps"></a>

• 03:50 – Interview begins
• 05:08 – Recap of past year’s market dynamics
• 15:46 – Why the “oil surplus” narrative is wrong
• 24:00 – The “manufactured oil surplus”
• 26:36 – 2026 outlook, China’s inventory role, Trump’s constraints
• 28:09 – Venezuela’s realistic impact on global supply/demand
• 36:51 – Iran regional context, Hormuz myth-busting
• 40:11 – Russia/Ukraine, peace not as bearish as it seems
• 44:49 – This week’s high-impact energy events (Aramco OSP, EIA data, Iran talks)
• 48:20 – U.S. shale, crude quality, and future risks
• 52:06 – AI, energy policy, and the “bigger story” for U.S. global strategy

10. Actionable Market Views – Post Game Discussion <a name="post-game"></a>

Crude Oil Options Trade (57:59)

• Patrick Ceresna highlights a bull call spread to express bullish but range-bound crude outlook, using April 2026 WTI options:
  • Buy $60 call / Sell $72 call for a $3.90 debit.
  • Play right-tail skew; break-even just below spot; maximum loss limited, potential for 2:1 payoff.
  • “Stay constructive on crude… use the right tail skew to keep carry costs low and participate in upside.” [57:59]

Gold & Uranium Markets:

• Gold: Recent $1,200/oz correction seen as a textbook unwinding of a parabolic move; base case is a multi-month consolidation rather than a top (69:45/78:31).
• Uranium: Bullish long-term, but anticipating further near-term volatility due to forced selling from gold correction spillovers. “If this is still a bull market, we’re literally at levels where the bulls should be buying dips and creating support.” [79:46]

Equities & Macro:

• S&P 500 losing momentum with tech sector “cracks;” market vulnerable to a 10%+ correction (61:26).
• Dollar Index at a technical crossroads.
• Bond yields quiet, but Patrick expects a pickup in volatility if risk assets break down (84:41).

Conclusion

Dr. Anas Alhajji makes a compelling case that the 2026 oil bear story is built on faulty inventory assumptions and a misunderstanding of strategic stockpiling—both in the U.S. and China. The market, he argues, is actually much tighter, with OPEC+ in position to manage supply and China poised to cap price rallies as needed. Geopolitical risks remain complex but aren’t overtly bearish, and Trump’s attempts to engineer even lower oil prices may have their limits. Investors should focus on range-bound strategies, especially as headline risks and technical factors dominate the tape.

Audience Call to Action:
Requested feedback for a future discussion: "Trump, AI, and Energy" — respond on Twitter/X if interested, to organize a dedicated Twitter Spaces session.

For More:

• Dr. Anas Alhajji: Newsletter on Substack, private Twitter briefings, keynote speeches. Money-back guarantee if not valuable [55:03].
• Show Notes & Charts: macrovoices.com (see Research Roundup in the listener email).

(This summary omits intro/outro, sponsorship, and admin content. All analysis/quotes are original from the episode.)