Macro Voices Episode #520 Summary

Guest: Michael Every, Global Strategist, Rabobank
Host: Erik Townsend
Date: February 19, 2026
Main Theme: USD Stablecoins in the Age of Economic Statecraft

Overview

This episode features a deep-dive interview with Michael Every, Rabobank’s Global Head of Macro Strategy, focusing on the emerging role of USD stablecoins as tools for economic statecraft amid a radically shifting US policy environment under President Trump’s second term. The conversation contextualizes the Warsh nomination for Fed Chair, potential geopolitical flashpoints (notably Iran), and the strategic reimagining of both the Federal Reserve’s role and the US’s currency arsenal. Every’s analysis challenges prevailing market interpretations, particularly around the Fed, the midterm elections, global capital flows, and revolutionary uses for US-dollar-based digital money.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Federal Reserve Transformation under Trump (04:10–09:04)

• Warsh Nomination: Loyalty & Architecture over Hawk/Dove Split
  • Loyalty is the decisive criterion for Trump’s nominations (05:03).
  • Warsh’s ties to Treasury’s Scott Bessant, Trump’s friend Ron Lauder noted.
  • Michael Every: “Walsh is being brought in...because obviously...he is going to be completely on board with this new reshaping of the Fed into a very, very different institution…” (07:46).
• From ‘Neutral’ Fed to Statecraft Subordinate
  • The theoretical independence of the Fed is recast as “pretend.”
  • Every argues the financialized US economy has made Fed policy increasingly about supporting unaffordable asset prices for foreigners (09:08–12:35).
  • The new model: the Fed as a toolkit for economic statecraft under Treasury’s direction.

Notable Quote

“It's going to have to be part of USA Inc. to try and get it out of the foxhole that it's currently in.”
– Michael Every, 12:20

2. Geopolitics, Iran, and the Trump Playbook (14:00–17:39)

• Diplomacy-by-Disruption, Not Just Military Action
  • The Trump style: “throw a hand grenade into the room...” (14:00).
  • On Iran: Uncertainty is sustained for leverage; actual military escalation isn’t the preferred path if it risks domestic fallout ahead of midterms.
  • Precedent: Surprise action in Venezuela reset the geostrategic table.

Notable Quote

“All the geopolitical credit as a tough guy that he got...would be squandered if you then move everything to the Middle East and actually don't do anything.”
– Michael Every, 16:50

3. Midterms and Radical Economic Statecraft (17:39–21:40)

• The Overriding Goal: Keep GOP Control
  • Losing the House/Senate means gridlock and likely more impeachments.
  • Trump’s post-2025 pivot: “as radical as possible on all fronts” (19:04).
• Focus on Affordability (‘Main Street, Not Wall Street’)
  • Mortgage rates, pegged credit card rates, attacks on meatpacking, and affordable drug initiatives highlighted as pre-election pocketbook tactics.

Notable Quote

“It’s a no-brainer if you understand what economic statecraft is...that being the policy backdrop for the next couple of months.”
– Michael Every, 20:57

4. Market Implications: Uncertainty & Volatility (21:40–28:58)

• The Risk Spectrum: Political & Technological

  • Markets face headwinds from electoral uncertainty; possibility of Democratic legislative control looms large.
  • AI's destabilizing effect is a parallel current driving volatility (23:14).

• Left/Right Tail Risks

  • Logistics data suggest an emerging real (not imported) US industrial pickup—possible “feather in the cap” for economic statecraft if it proceeds (25:56).
  • Statecraft focus means capital controls and price-capping could interfere with traditional investing logic.

Notable Quote

“Statecraft, again, isn’t about making easy money...it’s not the game anymore.”
– Michael Every, 27:08

5. From War Machines to Dollar Stablecoins (28:58–34:34)

• International ‘Distraction’ as Economic Statecraft
  • Rather than war, a focus on trade deals and managing foreign investment—especially with Japan/South Korea (29:35).
• USD Stablecoins as Statecraft Tools
  • Not a central bank digital currency (CBDC), but privately issued, T-bill backed stablecoins—think digital ‘bills of exchange’ (31:56).
  • The Clarity Act’s passage is a key legislative milestone.

Notable Quote

“If you can get a flood of funds going into T bills...you can refinance all the treasury debt… and spend a bit more into the midterms.”
– Michael Every, 38:26

6. Structural Market Shifts & The Role of Banks (34:34–38:40)

• Stablecoins Threaten Traditional Banking

  • Most US bank loans aren’t productive (only ~20% go to capital stock); stablecoin system could redirect flows (36:19).
  • Potential for Main Street-aimed rhetoric: “don’t put your money in the bank, buy stablecoins” (37:50).

• Political Risk: Timing & Lobbyist Backlash

  • Logical plan, but a “razor’s edge”—could trigger severe pushback (38:40).

7. Global Dollarization via Stablecoins (41:09–47:10)

• Trillions in Potential Treasury Demand

  • Stablecoins could enable global small investors, particularly in emerging markets, to hold T-bill backed digital dollar assets (41:09–41:53).
  • A massive indirect bid under US Treasuries; mechanism is hard for restrictive or weak-currency governments to block.

• Feedback Loop: Squeeze on Competing FX Systems

  • As locals shift to stablecoins, local FX reserves fall, eurodollar squeeze intensifies, making stablecoins even more attractive (47:00).

Notable Quote

“You can effectively dollarize much of the global economy alongside the existing eurodollar network...trillions and trillions.”
– Michael Every, 41:53

8. Implications for Gold, Crypto, and Competing Monetary Orders (49:21–55:50)

• Market Misreads around the Warsh Nomination
  • Recent corrections in gold and silver: market fiercely bearish on fiat, but Every questions whether too many ‘revolutionary’ regimes can coexist (50:28).
• Future Currency Blocs: The ‘Stablecoin Cold War’
  • Possible bifurcation: US-aligned countries use USD stablecoins, others might use gold- or BTC-backed alternatives (52:51–55:50).
  • If China/Russia go gold-backed, “no clearing” between blocks—fragmented, 1930s-style currency zones.

Notable Quote

“We could be looking at a 21st century stablecoin arms race...”
– Erik Townsend, 54:58

9. Rabobank’s Advisory Approach (57:55–58:42)

• Every outlines their focus on explaining emerging macro and geopolitical drivers to a variety of stakeholders, emphasizing risk mitigation and strategic adaptation.

Post-Game – Market Recap & Trade of the Week

Key Market Levels & Structuring (59:20–69:56)

• Trade of the Week: Short Euro futures (June 2026), hedged with a short-dated bull call spread due to high timing risk.
• S&P 500: At a technical inflection point, with the upcoming Nvidia earnings seen as a pivotal moment (63:28–65:09).
• US Dollar Index: Consolidating, with near-term direction dependent on Iran news; longer-term trend still bearish (65:09–65:46).
• Commodities:
  • Crude Oil: Rallies on strike rumors; “weekend tells the tale.”
  • Gold: In broad consolidation after large correction.
  • Uranium & Copper: Maintaining bull trends but sensitive to broader market risk.

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Economic statecraft is where do you need the USA Inc. to be? What does the ship of state need to look like?”
  Michael Every, 07:30

• “Welcome to 2026 and President Trump. These are things we have to get used to when we're dealing with both...”
  Michael Every, 05:03

• “If you thought President Trump had already been awfully aggressive with tariffs, just wait until you hear what Michael thinks he and Scott Bessant might do next with US dollar stablecoins.”
  Erik Townsend, 01:41

• “Trillions...you’ve effectively dollarized much of the global economy alongside the existing eurodollar network...”
  Michael Every, 41:53

• “We could be looking at a 21st century stablecoin arms race...”
  Erik Townsend, 54:58

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Start | End | |-------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------| | Warsh Nomination & Fed Transformation | 04:10 | 14:00 | | Iran/Geopolitical Tactics | 14:00 | 17:39 | | Midterms & Economic Statecraft | 17:39 | 21:40 | | Market Headwinds & Volatility | 21:40 | 28:58 | | From War to Dollar Stablecoins | 28:58 | 34:34 | | Stablecoins v. Banking System | 34:34 | 38:40 | | International Dollarization | 41:09 | 47:10 | | Gold, Bitcoin, and Monetary Competition | 49:21 | 55:50 | | Post-Game: Trade of the Week & Charts | 59:20 | 71:57 |

Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Michael Every’s perspective reframes the Federal Reserve and US monetary system under Trump 2.0 as overt tools of national strategy—teeming with revolutionary potential as USD stablecoins become instruments of both domestic reengineering and global economic dominance. The next few months, framed by the US midterms and ongoing geopolitical volatility, will be pivotal for both markets and the future of the dollar’s global role. Every challenges listeners not just to watch for yields and flows, but to rethink the architecture, incentives, and power structures underlying the financial world.

For more detailed resources and the Trade of the Week structure, visit Macro Voices or access episode research roundups.