The Rise of Prediction Markets | Dec 11, 2025

Summary

Macrodosing: The Rise of Prediction Markets

Episode Date: December 11, 2025
Hosts: PFT Commenter, Arian Foster, Big T, T-Bob, Mad Dog, et al.

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Main Theme

This episode of Macrodosing dives deep into the rapid emergence and explosive popularity of prediction markets—platforms where you can place real-money bets (or “predictions”) on everything from elections and sports to pop culture developments and character deaths in streaming series. The crew explores the legality, implications, possible exploitation, and cultural impact of these markets, mixing in their signature humor and wide-ranging tangents through sports, college football policy, AI, and more.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What Are Prediction Markets and Why Are They Booming?

• Defining Prediction Markets: Online platforms (like Kalshee and Polymarket) that let people buy and sell contracts on outcomes of real-world events.
• Explosion in Popularity:
  • Legal landscape shifted in 2024, allowing for massive growth (Polymarket and Kalshee traded billions in the election cycle).
  • Robinhood and major sportsbooks are getting in on the action.
• Types of Bets: Everything from who wins the presidential election, to TV plot points, to the next NFL coach, to whether Taylor Swift will announce she’s pregnant.

Quote:

"You can bet on if Jesus Christ will return in 2025... Who's paying out after the Rapture?" – Big T (1:45:15)

Timestamp: 1:45:00–1:47:45

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2. Legality & Regulation

• Whose Domain?
  • Prediction markets regulated by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), not the SEC.
  • Unlike the stock market, insider trading is generally legal here, unless you're manipulating the market directly or breaking established exchange rules.

Quote:

"The bigger the market gets, the more likely that there’s someone who already knows the answer." – PFT (1:12:57)

• Market Self-Policing:

  • Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshee are expected to enforce their own anti-fraud policies.

• Controversies:

  • Don Jr. serves as an advisor to both major platforms, raising questions about conflict of interest and insider access.
  • The platforms argue that aggregating all information—even 'inside' info—makes their odds “the truest form of crowdsourced truth.”

Quote:

"It all feels like ways of transferring wealth from poor people to rich people who already have the information." – T-Bob (1:12:41)

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3. Potential for Exploitation & Manipulation

• Inside Information:
  • Producers of shows, campaign staffers, coaches—anyone with advance knowledge could profit with legal impunity.
  • "Insider trading" rules do not apply if you don’t manipulate the market.
• Manipulation Loopholes:
  • False public statements are against the rules, but enforcement is murky.
• Market Manipulation Example:
  • Could a political campaign “pump” their odds for momentum and fundraising?

Timestamp: 1:13:01–1:16:30

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4. Comparison with Other Betting and Investing

• Contrast with Stock Market:
  • Stock market investment is meant to fund companies and their ventures; prediction markets are pure wagers on outcomes.
  • Insisting on the distinction allows prediction markets to dodge strict SEC oversight.

5. Societal Consequences and Dystopian Vibes

• Addiction & Accessibility Concerns:
  • The ease of entry: “If you live in Texas or California… you use Polymarket to bet on games.”
  • The risk: the pool of inside knowledge (sports, politics, TV, government briefings) means most ordinary betters are disadvantaged.

Quote:

"It does not seem healthy to be able to gamble on everything. It doesn’t seem healthy, does it?" – PFT (2:43:47)

6. Hope, Hype, and the ‘Educational’ Rationale

• Defense from the Companies:
  • Advocates say markets “aggregate real knowledge” and “predict outcomes more accurately than polls,” citing the original University of Iowa Electronic Market.
  • Hosts are skeptical: “They just don’t want to say this should be legal because it’s fun… If you gave them truth serum, that’s what they’d say.” (PFT)

7. Integration with Popular Culture & Sports

• Betting on Shows:
  • Stranger Things: “Will Steve Harrington die in Season 5?”
  • Internet events: “Will Dave Portnoy give a pizza review 9.0 or above before the end of the year?”

Notable Segment:
Betting on Jesus's return:

• You can bet “No” at nearly even odds, with massive volume.
• The absurdity and dark humor of such markets underline the anything-goes future of prediction betting.

Timestamp: 1:45:00–1:47:45

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On college football’s economic transition:

  “Private equity is gonna come in and look at this and say, ‘this is a remarkably inefficient endeavor.’” – Big T (16:15)
  “It’s just fucking dark. It’s all late stage capitalism run amok.” – T-Bob (29:38)

• On subjective vs. objective playoffs:

  “I don’t want you telling me you know what’s best, I want it fucking solved on the field.” – T-Bob (70:45)
  “College football is becoming a shittier version of the NFL.” – Big T (66:47)

• On AI and Nvidia Bubble:

  “The entire US economy is being propped up by Nvidia... and if it fails, then a recession will come.” – T-Bob (52:31)

• Lighthearted moments:

  "My favorite word to say now is disqualification...but in a Jamaican accent." – PFT (82:02)
  Group then spends several minutes riffing on accent challenges and favorite SAT words. (82:02–85:45)

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Important Timestamps

• Intro to Prediction Markets: 05:25
• PolyMarket/College Football News: 13:40–26:00
• Private Equity in College Sports: 16:15–36:36
• Legal/Moral Gray Areas: 104:28–124:43
• Volume and Growth Stats: 143:05
• Absurd Bets Examples (Jesus, Stranger Things): 145:00
• Closing banter about fonts and NFL professionalism: 151:03

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Podcast Tone & Style

The conversation is informal, jocular, and candid. Hosts jump from irreverent tangents (raisin rankings, favorite words, Dungeons & Dragons) to serious, insightful deep-dives on the ethics and impacts of prediction markets, college football economics, and American gambling culture. Political and economic critique is balanced by humor and “this is wild” disbelief at much of what is now legal.

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For Listeners Who Haven't Tuned In:

• Prediction markets are exploding in both volume and variety—anyone can put money on almost anything imaginable, with minimal oversight.
• These are not your typical sportsbooks—legal, mostly unregulated, and potentially rife with insider exploitation.
• The future likely involves more everyday “betting” on everything, with cultural and economic ramifications most people are unprepared for.
• The hosts voice both the dystopian downsides (addiction, unfair advantage, transparency risks) and the philosophical, “free-market” justifications made by market creators.
• Throughout, the show offers loads of sports, college football, and pop-culture commentary; plus the usual Macrodosing blend of deep insight and comic relief.

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Memorable Moments Recap

• Steve Harrington Death Market: Big T attempts to wager on Stranger Things character deaths (1:45:00).
• Jesus Returns Market: Hosts riff on the absurdity of trading “Will Jesus come back in 2025?” ($2.5 million volume!) (1:45:15)
• Private Equity in College Sports: In-depth, critical breakdown of university athletic department privatization and the end of fan philanthropy (16:15–36:36).
• Prediction Markets vs. Stocks: Mad Dog, PFT, and Big T break down why betting with inside info is legal in prediction markets, but not with stocks (121:00–124:43).
• Classic Banter: The hosts try out Jamaican accents, compare nuts to band members, and reminisce about SAT vocab (81:11–85:45).

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Listen for:

• Quick education on the wild west of predictive gambling
• Candid, skeptical analysis of capitalism’s endgame in sports and finance
• Classic Macrodosing laughs about snack food, favorite words, and surreal betting markets

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Recommended for:
Anyone curious about the intersection of gambling, economics, sports, and pop culture—and who enjoys sharp, funny, and occasionally incredulous conversation.

Transcript

[A]

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[A]

It's against the law to be gay in Egypt and Iran.

[C]

Oh my God.

[A]

And that's Pride Match.

Welcome back to Macrodosing. It is Thursday. It's December 11th. Today's episode is brought to you by Game Time. We are a few days into the 12 game. 12 days of game time. That means that they're giving away prizes every day with a $5,000 grand prize at the end. If you still have not entered, go to 12daysofgametime.com. It's free. It only takes a few seconds. This season, Game Time is celebrating the moments that made people fans and they've been enabling those moments for the past 12 years. What is the moment that made you a fan? Mad Dog, what was the first concert you went to?

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What are we looking at? It's funny you should ask, Eric, because as we were just sitting here about to do the ad, perusing the game time app, I found out that Elf the Musical is in town and I'm buying tickets as we speak for $36 to go on Friday night.

[A]

I love that. I did not know that elf had a musical.

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Me neither. But I'm going.

[A]

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[B]

Let's look up the songs.

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That sounds. That sounds like it was made for a song right there. Smiling's my favorite.

[B]

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Yeah.

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That is a bonus for you. Shout out game time. 12 days of gametime.com still time to enter. Check it out. All right, we're back. It's macrodosing. It is Thursday, December 11th. We're gonna have T. Bob joining us in just a little bit. We're gonna talk about some of the predictive markets out there, the prediction markets that have been everywhere, I guess, for the last couple years now, but really gaining steam right now in the United States. And I was actually, I was looking at them the other day because I was checking out who they thought the next coach of the New York Football Giants would be. And I was amazed by what I saw.

[B]

There's a strong favorite.

[A]

There was a strong favorite. Antonio Brown. Oh, was the favorite the other day.

[B]

Oh, yeah, you were talking about this. There's. But have you seen the new.

[A]

Yeah. Shula, right?

[B]

No.

[A]

Oh, who is it?

[B]

Marcus Freeman.

[A]

I know. I knew that him and Shula have been going back and forth. Shula's now on top. Or I mean, Marcus Freeman, I think.

[B]

By a significant margin. Yeah.

[A]

Interesting. Yeah. Just a couple days ago was Antonio Brown. That was number one. And I was like, what's going on here? Somebody's either wasting money, somebody is probably ceding it just to get a screenshot so they can post about it. But, yeah, AB as he's standing trial for attempted murder, was the favorite for a brief period of time on. I believe that was on Polymarket. But yeah, we're going to talk about prediction markets in a little bit. We got. We got some stuff to get to today. Big T, you want to start?

[B]

Always.

[A]

Do you want to start with Bonnie Blue? You want to start.

[B]

That's what a question. Yeah, we can.

[A]

If somebody asks you that question, the answer should always be, yeah, I'll go first.

Bonnie Blue. Free Bonnie Blue.

[B]

I don't know, man.

[A]

Bad Bonnie. She is in. She's in some legal hot water right now, which is a better hot liquid than what she's usually covered in. But she is. She's been arrested in Bali. In Bali, and she's facing up to 15 years in jail.

[B]

Not a place. It sounds like you'd want to get arrested.

[A]

No, I would say. Yeah, I would say probably strong. No on that one. What do you think the worst places to get arrested are?

[B]

I think Indonesia's supposed to be really bad.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Obviously, like Central America. The jails in Central America are, like, the worst.

[A]

Yeah. El Salvador.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That'd probably be pretty bad.

[B]

Have you ever watched World's Most Dangerous Prisons?

[A]

Yes. I love that show.

[B]

Great show. But there's one I think it might be in El Salvador. It's somewhere in Central America that. It's a town, basically. It's a little small town with a wall around it and there's no cells or anything. It's like you go to this prison and you become kind of a citizen of the town, but it's run by the gangs.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And it's like a. It's a bad deal.

[A]

Bad deal, I would say.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

El Salvador is up there. Russia, I wouldn't want to go to Russian prison.

[B]

Probably not. China, North Korea.

[A]

Yeah. Turkish prison sounds pretty bad to me, too.

South African prison sounds like a rough deal. Brazilian prison.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Now, if you were to spin it, which prisons Would you want to go to.

Feel like Scandinavia?

[B]

Yeah. No, those are the best.

[A]

Not. Maybe not Finland, because it's too close to Russia. And I feel like there's some crossover in terms of that. That side of the. Excuse me. That side of their culture there.

[B]

I don't know if it's Sweden or Norway, but one of them was on another prison show, and it's like. I mean, it's. It's great.

[A]

It's like a dorm room.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. I would probably choose Sweden or Norway.

[B]

You go take cooking class all day, and then you. Yeah. It's insane.

[A]

Yeah. But Bonnie Blue is. She's in. In deep trouble over in Bali because she was trying to arrange a bang bus to get at least 17 male tourists between the age of 19 and 40 from Australia and the UK to do. I. I think you can probably fill in the blanks on that bus with her. They released 14 of the people that they arrested without charge, but they held one Aussie and two Britons a little bit longer.

[B]

How do those guys get in trouble but the rest don't?

[A]

I don't know. Yeah, why. Why three? Why. Why are these three? Maybe 14 is the production crew.

[B]

No, I think the 17 were.

[A]

One of them is Connor Griffin. Because you got to. You got to wipe it down. You got to get the janitor. So she was. I should backtrack a little bit. She's no longer currently in custody. She was arrested. She was released, but they seized her passport, so she cannot leave. And they said that they were going to be creating content containing pornographic or immoral elements, and that was against the law in Indonesia, where they banned porn. They banned the. The distribution and the public display of porn, and they seized her outfits. They took the cameras, they took the condoms, they took the flash drives, they took the lube, they took necklaces, and they took a whole bunch of Viagra as well, all confiscated. So I guess she's not. She's not currently behind bars, but she is not allowed to leave the country right now. And she had been warned. There was another lady named Annie Knight. I'm not familiar with Ms. Night, but she told Bonnie Blue that she could be in. In trouble if she. If she went over to Bali. She said, I did try to warn her of the consequences of filming porn in Bali. That being said, I hope she's okay. As being arrested in another country must be terrifying experience. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. I got a couple questions here.

First of all, what happened with. Wasn't she pregnant?

[B]

I think that was fake.

[A]

It's fake, right?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Are we believing this?

[B]

Well, there. Remember there was another arrest thing at one point, but I don't. That might have been fake. Yeah, this sounds real. We're believing this is being. This. This isn't her. This is being reported by, like, real outlets.

[A]

Okay, so it's not the. The source isn't just from her.

[B]

Correct.

[C]

Like the.

[B]

The pregnant thing she put out. Right.

[A]

Mm.

[B]

I mean, this is being reported by, like, the news.

[A]

They said that there was a raid on her.

[B]

Not that the news is never fake.

[A]

But on her compound, which you could also. That's a good description for most of her videos. Her compound was rated by several. Several men. So, yeah, I think. Yeah, I believe this one. But, yeah. Just don't go overseas and film porn, Bonnie.

[B]

Especially Bali.

[A]

Like, there's plenty of other places to fuck. You would think lots of other places. I don't know why your heart was set on Bali, but, yeah, I guess Free Bonnie Blue. We also have some stuff in the news about the Epstein files. There's been more materials that have been released. A bunch of pictures. A bunch of creepy pictures of several rooms in his townhouse with weird looking, like, almost cartoony face masks everywhere.

[B]

And like, dental chairs.

[A]

Dental chairs that are set up. There's just nothing that would shock me anymore about, like, it's. It's all the creepiest things. It feels like it's a story out of a movie.

[B]

I had this thought. Is a dental chair the most unsettling thing to see in any environment other than where it's intended to be? Like, if you see a dental chair somewhere, you're like, somebody's doing fucked up stuff.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yes, I agree 100%. I even. I don't like looking at dental chairs in the dentist office for sure, but.

[B]

That'S at least where they're supposed to be.

[A]

When Jerry bu. His house. It used to be a dentist office, right?

[B]

I think so, yeah.

[A]

Did. Were the chairs still there?

[B]

I don't know. You'll have to ask.

[A]

I will have.

[B]

He's here today, is he?

[A]

I can get him in here to ask that. Yeah. There's. There's more and more weird stuff that's coming out right now that was actually taken from the Galain Maxwell grand jury material. So I guess it's just going to be like a slow release of all these documents. I guess that's what they're planning on doing.

[B]

Seems like it.

[A]

What'd you think about the masks?

[B]

I mean, they're freaky. I don't know what to make of them.

[A]

I was trying to figure out if they were based on any people and my guess is they probably are, but they're probably just people. Rich people that we don't know about.

[B]

Those are the real rich.

[A]

Those are. Yeah. Those are the ones you have to watch out for. But they all looked. Yeah. Like generic. Old rich white man. That's what all the masks look like. And I could definitely see him like, that's an honor. If you go to his house, you get a mask made out of your face, dip your face into the mold and then.

[B]

Probably not what you'd want at this point.

[A]

Probably not. No. It's way worse than a fingerprint.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Now you have a face print. A full face scan at Epstein's place. Yeah, there's, there's that.

[B]

It's.

[A]

It's slowly coming out. So we'll find out more and more.

And. Yeah, we'll keep you up to date on that. Do you want to talk about college sports, Big T?

[B]

I always do. There is some breaking news that just came across my desk.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

First baseman Pete Alonso and the Baltimore Orioles are finalizing a five year, $155 million contract.

[A]

Wow. Good for the O's. Yeah, that's a, that's kind of a shock.

[B]

And the Pirates offered somebody a contract.

[A]

Schwarber.

[B]

Yeah. Kyle Schwaber.

[A]

That was their big.

[B]

That was free agent signing remotely competitive.

[A]

Yeah. They made. They were in the running for Kyle Schwaber.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Schwarber should have just said, fuck it.

[B]

I bet it was one less year.

[A]

I bet if Schwarber said, you know what, I'll take your deal, the Pirates.

[B]

Be like.

We didn't actually mean that.

[A]

Yeah, I didn't think that this was going to happen.

Psych.

[B]

This is actually best case scenario for them is people like, wow, good for the Pirates. They offered a player.

[A]

It's huge. This is their big free agent signing. This offseason is being being in the running for Kyle Schwaber. But yeah, good for the Orioles. I didn't think that was going to be a team that he would end up going to. We do have a little bit of college sports news in terms of funding for college sports. So this is from Ross Dellinger. He says in a groundbreaking endeavor, the University of Utah athletics is entering into what could be a $500 million plus equity partnership with O Capital featuring the creation and shared ownership of a for profit entity to operate athletics. Sources tell Yahoo Sports. So we have private equity coming in and now funding individual teams. I know there's been a Lot of talk of private equity groups funding conferences and investing in conferences, which has been met with a lot of pushback from the fans to the point the Big Ten kind of put that on hold, right?

[B]

I think so, yeah.

[A]

Yeah. So now they're. They're trying to invest in. In individual schools. What do you think's going on, Big T?

[B]

It's going to be a disaster. Like the. Now, I'm not saying this is a positive or negative. It's a positive for fans, not the private equity. What I'm about to say, the collegiate sports economic model is not efficient. It works because. Or works to whatever extent. It operates based on emotion. There are people who give a ton of money to these schools who don't really get, like, a financial return on that money. The return is you get great seats, you get to go to swanky dinners at the coach's house, and you get to, like, be part of this cool club, basically. And you. If. If all goes well, you get to field a great team and hopefully win championships, and you get to be like, I helped build that.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Private equity is going to come in and look at this and say, this is a remarkably inefficient endeavor that we've uncovered here.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

We're going to cut all the fat here and find new ways to make money, which you will be able to do.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

But it will come at the cost of everyone hating you.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

They will do a better job at making more money, and that's probably it. That's all you're going to do.

[B]

This is going to suck for fans. It's going to suck for. I saw the, like, boosters at Utah, they were like, hey, if you want to buy into this new company, you can basically buy shares of it. And if I had given, you know, $4 million to the university of Utah over the course of the last 20 years, whatever. I'd be like, where'd my 4 million go? That doesn't give me anything.

[A]

Right. Yeah. So essentially it's been. You've been able to buy access, but it's been open to pretty much anybody.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And if you form, like, a personal relationship with the administration and you give a lot of money, then you get all the perks. Now you have to go to a company that has a board, and if you want to get involved in it, they already have most of the money that's been put into the program. I don't know if that. They're going to be taking massive amounts of outside money. So I guess people might save money on that stuff. But it's people that have the money to spend that want the access. They're going to be upset. Now, do we have any. Are there any college teams that do personal seating licenses yet?

[B]

Not that I'm aware of.

[A]

Buddy, get ready.

[B]

Oh, it's. Well, you know what Tennessee is doing next year that people flipped out about. They announced this probably six months ago. They're instituting a 10% talent fee to all tickets. So basically all tickets are going up 10% and that money is going to be used to pay players, which a lot of common fans were upset about. I think that's going to become very uniform across college sports, and I think at 10% is probably not where it's going to stop.

[A]

I would agree. I think Ohio State might do PSLS personal seat licenses, at least for some seats. But Utah, get ready to get ready to learn psl, buddy. That's going to be the one thing that they're going to. They're going to zero in on and say, wait, we can just charge people 5, $10,000 for the right to buy tickets.

[B]

Ohio State does offer personal seat licenses.

[A]

That sucks. That sucks for fans if that becomes like a widespread thing. We got T. Bob joining us. T. Bob, what up?

[C]

What's up, boys?

[A]

How you doing? We're talking. We're talking college sports right now and we're talking about private equity investing in the University of Utah.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

To run their athletic program.

[C]

Dark.

[A]

It's some dark stuff. Dark, dark, dark, dark. Does LSU do. Do they do PSLs personal seat licenses?

[C]

I'm not aware if they do or don't.

[A]

I'm not sure. I haven't heard about them. I know Ohio State. Does the Ohio State.

[C]

I.

[B]

What.

[C]

What are PSLs exactly? I just know of, like, news stories through the years that I've heard uproar about. Like, remember the Falcons? PSL are really big deal.

[B]

The Falcons, when they open Mercedes Benz Stadium, were like, you will not be able to purchase a ticket, single game, season, anything, unless you have a personal seat license now.

[C]

Okay, so you buy. You're buying the right to buy tickets.

[B]

Correct. In order to buy season tickets, you have to pay five grand or whatever to. You own the seat in quotation marks. And so basically all it gets you is like first access to if there's a concert or something. Like, you can buy the ticket first, but you're just paying for the right to pay more.

[C]

The.

Well, do we want to finish on psl? Like, how far have we gotten in the. Utah.

[A]

We just started talking.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

I Was saying like that if you're a private equity company and you're buying an athletic department, that's probably one of the first things that you're looking at to boost revenue, right?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Yeah. So actually. Okay, hold on. I have. Because I put together notes for, for WUB this morning. I just got to pull them up in terms of specifically what their stated goals have been with Utah ways to raise revenue and. Yeah, it sounds awful.

[A]

It does. It doesn't. I don't think any of it is going to be fan centered.

[C]

No. Because when is private equity ever human centered?

[A]

I guess you could, you could say that they're going to try increase the competitiveness of the product on the field in order to, to drive interest and then to drive revenue through, you know, ticket sales and merch sales and things like if the team's better, they'll end up having, you know, more people that would line up to buy the merch, buy the T shirt, the hat, and to go to the games. And then that would mean, you know, greater revenue for TV too, I guess. So they will probably make that argument that, yeah, we're gonna, we're gonna invest money into the team to make it better. But nothing about the fan experience is going, is going to be better.

[C]

No. I mean, private equity exists for one reason. Right. And that is to make money. A lot of times that comes at the cost of the human experience. Whether it's downsizing, asking more people to do more jobs, cutting away from benefits or luxuries that maybe the work treated their humans with like they will ruthlessly cut and do whatever decision they can to increase value.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And the bottom line, and it normally comes across. So Utah Brands and Entertainment llc, that's going to be the new private independent offshoot of the athletic department.

The university retains majority ownership and decision making of Utah Brands and Entertainment. A president outside the university will preside over the company and report to a board which will feature the. The chairman of the board will be the Utah AD Mark Harlan. And then they have seats for trustees and OTRO executives. Ottro's the, the private equity company here.

They've also offered the.

[B]

The.

[C]

The most prominent donors the ability to purchase a stake in the company so that they can see a more direct ROI than stuff they're maybe getting off of, like, you know, nil and whatnot.

[B]

But what I said, if I'm somebody that's given millions of dollars to Utah, I'd be like, so now I have to give more to be part of your fake company?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Where's Where'd my money go?

[C]

Well, I guess now, yeah, now. I guess that's the pitch though, is that now that money. I, I can't explain how they would answer what the, what happened to the previous money?

[B]

Well, that just like.

[C]

Yeah, they're like, well, you know, look at the player we got.

[A]

That was under the old system.

[C]

But, but now I guess they're saying like, well, now you can make money off it. So like the 500 million is going to be Atro Capital's number they're putting in and the prominent donor money and is going to be making up that 500 million. But here's the new company's primary goal. To generate more revenue across an assortment of areas. Ticketing, concessions, corporate sales and sponsorships.

[A]

Yep.

[C]

Hell yeah.

[A]

Yeah. So if you have stuff fans crave.

[C]

Yeah, exactly.

[B]

Who was it?

[C]

Higher price tickets, better. More expensive concessions and more jersey patches.

[B]

What school just signed a deal for a jersey patch?

[C]

LSU. Well, everybody. I mean, LSU's definitely got one now.

[B]

I can't remember who was it BYU or. It's a blue team in the West. I'm fairly confident Cal, but everybody's going to have.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

In Nevada, which is.

[B]

And listen, I can deal. I've gotten used to the, the yellow bag of quick crete on the Braves uniforms, like whatever the college football. I just can't, I can't do it. It. Those are sacred.

[C]

Well, in every step it's coming. Right? But like every step is again private equity, like corporations and whatnot. Like their entire existence is to increase value. Year after year the number has to keep going up so nothing ever stops. Right. It's just, it's just, it's, it's, it's a step and then you have to take a step further and then you have to take a step further. And like PFT says, I guess in the utopian version of this, the team gets better and so the fans are happy to pay more or it generates rev. More revenue just because the team is better. But in practice it probably just leads to a worse squeezing of the fans in the fan experience at a time when, guess what? Economically everything fucking sucks dick right now anyway. Like, everything's so fucking expensive. You can't afford shit. You can't do anything without it being $100. Like a sandwich is fucking $20.

[A]

Yeah, it's, it doesn't sound good at all. And if you're Utah, you are a, a state run college.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

You're owned, funded by the state and then the state is then selling their athletic department to A private equity company for, for their own profit. For their own.

[C]

Yeah, so that, so that archers can make money and so that the, the massive multi millionaire and billionaire donors can make money as well.

[A]

So does that money go at all back to the money that they made selling the share of the athletic department? Was it 100% or what was the, the number that Oo bought? Do you know?

[C]

I don't know. I think so. Again, I don't know the percentages of who owns what, but in that new private independent offshoot, the Utah Brands Entertainment, all I read from Ross Deler's piece was that the university retains majority ownership. So it could be like 51, 49, I don't know. They retain majority ownership and decision making.

But again, even that feels a bit naive because what happens when the OCHO executives on the board start saying, well, I don't know if I agree with that decision. I would, maybe I would, maybe I would maybe do this. I think about doing this.

[B]

This is going to expedite what I've thought was going to happen for a while. Academically. I think it's at this point pretty stupid that we're still pretending. These guys like need to go to.

[C]

Class players have exams this week.

[B]

Yeah, it's so stupid. I've said fore. Just once they become employees, which is inevitable.

Divorce the athletic department completely from the university and say, listen, these guys play for the University of Tennessee. They put on the uniform but they don't like go to school here. They're. They're the football team. Like that's what it is. And I think the economics of it now will make that even more.

[C]

Likely.

[B]

Yeah, I guess that that happens in the next. I'd be stunned if in 20 years, like the, the athletic departments exist as parts of the university, you know what.

[A]

We'Re going to lose with private equity. And there, there are some schools in this article. It lists a few that have taken, that have, that have created a private revenue generating entity that is outside the athletic department. Yeah, Kentucky did it. Michigan State, Clemson, they all did it. None of those schools had a private equity firm come in and take control of it. I, we're gonna lose. What happened just down the road in Provo where a coach is about to leave because another school is paying them a lot of money. And then the CEO of a cookie company is like, not on my watch. And then steps in and just gives a bunch of money at the last. We're gonna lose the mad.

[B]

And that's why college sports are awesome. Like every school is funded by some billionaire who started like Auburn Football is run by yellow wood. Tennessee is run by the pilot gas station. Like that's, that's fun. And it's, it's.

[A]

Arkansas is run by a chicken company, Correct.

[B]

Yeah, Walmart. And those exist because those guys are fans and they understand, like, I'm not really going to see a financial return on this money, but I get an emotional investment from it. And now that's going to be stripped like philanthropy.

[A]

You know what this is kind of. You know what this is? You know how the lottery is a tax on poor people? This is, this is getting rid of a tax on rich people.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Because you've got these, these billionaires and these, these hundred millionaires.

[B]

This is a regressive tax.

[A]

It is in these college cities. And all of a sudden you don't have to go to Todd Graves at raising canes. If you want to sign the next young quarterback, next five star, you've got a private equity company that's making that choice for you.

[C]

It should be noted that UC.

Does have it written in. They have an exit strategy in five to seven years if they should choose to do so, and that they retain the right to purchase Atro's ownership stake at any time. So maybe there's any, like a hostile takeover. But again, that's the thing. Like.

And I know that smarter business people could explain it in ways that certainly feel more palatable.

But private equity is not giving you money for free.

[A]

Right.

[C]

This money has to be paid back. Has to be paid back with interest and in the terms of who benefits, it's going to be a select and already very wealthy few.

[B]

I said before you got in here, college sports are a remarkably inefficient business endeavor. Like they are go. They did this because they're like, well, we can find plenty of ways to make money that they're not doing. It's going to come at the cost of the fan experience and everything you've ever known about how going to a Utah game is. And like everything. But they're going to find ways to make money.

[C]

Yeah. Yeah. And it's, it's, it's just.

It'S just fucking dark. It's all late stage capitalism run amok.

[A]

And the argument that maybe they'll make the team better, the product better to generate more revenue, I'd say it's probably, it's probably more likely that that won't happen. When you look at how like Big T was saying the, the economics of college football.

Why would you spend $5 million on a quarterback. Why would, why would a company whose only mission is to make money on Investments spend $5 million on a quarterback that might leave within a year or two years?

[C]

That's. When is he going to have a 7 million dollar impact? Or could you pay a quarterback 1 million and the impact be essentially the same?

[A]

Right. Quarterback like you, don't you. It's not a sure thing.

[B]

I think maybe part of the calculus is they're betting on there being a collective bargaining agreement at some point soon, which if there isn't, like the whole sport's gonna collapse on itself. Like there, there has to be.

[C]

Yeah. We can't be relying on federal. Like, did, did y' all talk to the, to the House representative yet?

[A]

Not yet, no.

[C]

Okay. Cause I was gonna say we, we. It's. It's so absurd that we're trying to rely on federal Congress to create rules for college football.

[A]

Yeah, we've reached that. That point.

[C]

And, and that bills are being proposed to limit athlete compensation and whatnot. Like that has to be figured out within the sport itself by like you said, like a, like a collectively bargained agreement.

[B]

Well, to be fair, that's because the NCAA was the most corrupt and inept organization for 75 years.

[C]

Yeah. Yeah. It seems like, it seems like Mark Emmert's strategy, or maybe he was like, ah, there's no, there's. It does seem like his strategy was like, okay, if I do nothing and make it as chaotic and shitty as possible, then maybe the noise will get loud enough for like the federal government will have to. We'll have to get involved. But like, I mean, I guess the flip side of that is they have a lot going on.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Like the countries. Again, I think a boots on the ground average person experience is, is pretty shitty. And, and that's coming from someone who has a, you know, who has a, like, who has it better than 99.9% of people. And it even still feels very frustrating. So it's the, the idea that we're going to ask Congress to spend time trying to place NIL rules in place about how much a player or a team should be able to make is, is fucking wild.

[A]

I think Big T is right that this is a, this is a very, very encouraging sign that there will be a cba because I don't think that a private equity firm would, would take a chance like this if they thought they were going to stay in the same mess when it comes to NIL moving forward.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

You need clarity. Bad business. Yeah, it's bad business. To be this vague.

[A]

It's also very funny that we've got a bunch of schools, a bunch of athletic departments and university presidents across the country that are like, hey, Congress, we can there please be a union? I would really like to negotiate with a union that, that shows you how much power the players have right now.

[B]

Well, I think the, like, the schools don't want that.

[A]

No, it, I think when it comes to a collective bargaining agreement, that's what the schools are, are looking for. So that they, they have rules in place where it's not just freelance contractors. It's like if they sign a contract, the rule is you have to be here for two years or for three years.

[B]

Well, I think the coaches and everyone involved on the athletic side, schools, the schools like the SCORE act, which is what we're going to talk to Hakeem Jeffries about. The SCORE ACT precludes them from unionizing. Basically, it prevents them from becoming employees.

[A]

Right. But I, I think that there's, there's different parts of that argument when it comes to the amount of money that's being paid. The schools are like, we, this is unsustainable. It's not working to, to take a risk and to pay quarterback $5 million and then they can transfer after a year. I think they're looking for more rules in place for how long the, the athletes have to stay at the colleges so they don't bounce around. And I think that in a perfect world. Well, I don't want to say perfect world, but if it was up to the schools, in this case, they, they want to collude against the players. The schools would like to put in rules saying, okay, we all agree that the limit that we're going to spend on quarterbacks is X. Yeah, the limit we're going to spend on wide receivers is X. But that's against the law. You can't do that to, to the people that are going to end up being your labor. So that's off the table. And now they're asking Congress, hey, can you please put in, can you, can you make there be a collective bargaining agreement so that we can put a stop to the players having us over barrel?

[C]

Well, this is the, this is the great irony of sports in general is that they're. These, these massive organization are owned by uber, uber rich capitalists who then create a socialist, the socialist system in which to exist. Yeah, like, it's something that Steve Ballmer's talked about. He's like, I'm used to being like cutthroat with my Competition.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And like trying to break their knees and eliminate them entirely. And now like, I'm going to meetings with this other own, these other owners. We're doing revenue sharing and everything. I, I can't go and pay Kawhi Leonard behind, behind everybody's back in a sideways way. Like, yeah, your teammates, like the NFL is the biggest group of socialists in. They literally put a cap on earnings.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And they, and they justify it with raising salary caps relative to revenue. Like, yeah, there's ways to massage it. But like, at the end of the day, it is funny to see some of the most capitalistic people in, on the planet get together and create a system where unions and socialism and sharing revenue are, are key and core concepts.

[A]

And sometimes you get owners like Jerry Jones that, that actively participate in and benefit from the system that'. Place. But they're still like, why am I funding the Jacksonville Jaguars? Why, why is that beneficial to me as Jerry Jones? I, I think that a CBA is going to be good for the sport overall. I think that there's, it's gone too crazy now where the money that is being spent on players that's not generating a return, I think is going to discourage a lot of people from spending that money at all in the future.

[C]

I, I, I, I have no idea what the.

I have no idea what the eventual market looks like. And well, the thing that I keep going back to as well is, okay, CBA salary makes sense. You're going to create, maybe you agree to a salary cap, you spend how you want, whatever, like other sports do, or maybe not look at baseball.

But how do you ever codify or place rules around advertising?

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

What is it?

[B]

Tried to do it.

[C]

What is ever going to stop me as big business owner from saying I want to pay this kid a million dollars? And I'm telling you that him tweeting one time about my company is worth that to me.

[B]

Well, so that's what they've tried to do with this clearinghouse thing. That makes no sense.

[C]

Yeah. They're going to sit there and pour through every fucking, you know, every.

[B]

I think they are, but I think that that's illegal. Like, you can't say that. Like you just said, if I deem that I want Bryce Underwood to send put one Instagram story up and I want to give him $50,000 to do that. Who are you to tell me that I can't?

[C]

Exactly. So I don't.

[B]

But that's what they're trying to do. They're trying to establish a quote market value for whatever services they want. And then they can say, oh, well that's, that's egregious. You can't do that.

[C]

And again, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm, I make sex jokes and talk about football day. So like, maybe there's, maybe there are other real world examples in other sectors of business where this is done and accomplished, but that, that, that is the, the thing that I keep coming, coming back to is how do you stop advertising dollars? Because it feels inherently un American and, and no other sport, you, you, you can't stop in any other sport. Right. Like all these other athletes, you can pay a quarterback however much of your cap, but he can still go out and get hundreds of millions of dollars worth of advertising deals if he wants to.

[B]

And by the way, the, another reason you need a cba, the way everything's currently written, I think it's illegal for the NCAA to impose any sort of artificial restriction on players earning potential, which includes limits on how long they can play.

[C]

Yeah, I mean that is the eventual fight. Right. How do you even enforce eligibility?

[B]

I don't think they should be able to currently. Now once they establish a CBA and say, listen, you have five years, that's it, great, I'm in favor of that. But currently that is a restriction on how much money guys can earn. And I don't think that should be. I think Diego Pavia should be able to play in college as long as he wants under the way the rules are written right now.

[C]

It all, it all goes back to that, to that Justice Kavanaugh letter that he sent. Was that like 2016 now at this point or maybe, maybe it was later, but he just fucking towards, he was like, look at any other sector of American society, this would be so illegal. How the NCAA has operated for a well over a hundred years and then instead of being proactive, they chose to not even be reactive, really just be stagnant. And so I think you have a hundred years of cruft that built up where we accepted, well, this is how it's been, this is how it always should be, even if it is illegal. And, and the sport got bigger and bigger, bigger. And now, yeah, the, the fallout and the ripple effects. There's so much build up that, yeah, there's like years of fallout to have to, to parse through.

[A]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what they do in Big. In Big T's example, the schools, if they, if the schools still like retain actual control of the, of the athletic departments and all the all the players who play on the teams have to be students at the school. They would say, yeah, you can play football for us as long as you are a student in good standing.

[C]

Right.

[B]

Which can be rigged.

[A]

Which could be rigged. Or you could have Diego Pavia going for a doctorate.

[C]

Hell yeah.

[B]

That's what I'm saying.

[C]

Like doctor at a ball.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

And just not do anything. But I. Yeah, I don't think.

[C]

I think Vandy should give him an honorary PhD for what he's done.

[A]

I agree.

[B]

I think it's stupid that they're students at all. Unless you want to be. If you want to be, that's awesome and you should do that. But if they don't and they just want to play football, that's all they're doing now. Anyway.

[C]

I googled this morning. Has private equity ever done something positive? And here's the AI answer. Yes, private equity has done positive things primarily by boosting operational performance, driving productivity gains, generating strong long term returns for investors, and fostering growth in portfolio portfolio companies.

[A]

Yeah, love that. Shout out portfolio companies. Portfolio companies ain't played nobody.

[C]

Yeah, dude, that sounds great. That all sounds like it's definitely gonna benefit us as the person paying for tickets and concessions and going to the games.

[A]

Yeah, it. It doesn't sound good. It doesn't sound good at all. There's also some more college football news with with your guy Lane and his house. People are now talking about Lane Kiffin's house in Oxford.

[C]

Somebody knows. Somebody told me about this.

[B]

What's going on?

[A]

All right, so Lane Kiffin, when he was being wooed by the Louisiana State Tigers, wrote into his contract that they would cover some of the shortfall that he would incur if he sold his house and lost money.

[B]

Yeah, up to 500 grand.

[A]

Up to 500 grand. So I what do they. They valued his house at 2.89 million.

[B]

According to the term sheet, Kiffin purchased his Oxford home for 2.89 million, meaning LSU would be responsible for covering at least some of the shortfall if he sells it for less. But the Lafayette county real estate records indicate the residents in question is likely the home he bought in 2021 in the Grove at Grand Oaks Golf Course community. When it comes to home sale prices, Ms. is a non disclosure state. However, Redfin lists the property as having sold for 1.65 million. On Tuesday, Hollis Wayne Butler Jr. That's the most Oxford, Mississippi guy of all time who sold the home to Kiffin, confirmed a Sportico that the figure Redfin list matches his recollection.

[A]

That guy should have kept his mouth shut.

[B]

He added that he also sold his. All his furniture to Kiffin, which may have brought the total price up by roughly $100,000. So it seems like somewhere an extra million dollars got tacked onto this house.

[C]

Not Lane. Lane would. I mean, come on. Lane wouldn't do that.

[B]

Dude.

[A]

So, yeah, they're saying, allegedly, per the term sheet, that. That they signed with LSU. He said, My house, I bought it for 2.89 million. Allegedly. According to Hollis, Wayne Butler Jr. Said that Lane bought it for 1.6 million. So that's a little bit over a million dollars in difference than what Lane told them. I guess we can say about a million because of the price of the furniture.

[B]

Also important to note, he got it covered up to 500 grand in losses from the 2.9. The home's listed market value on Zillow currently is 2.4.

[A]

2.4. So let's say he sells it for 2.3. After negotiating. That would mean that he made approximately a million dollars. We'll say he bought it for all in 1.75.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And so then he would get 2.8. So if he sells it for. If he ends up selling it for 2.3, that's a difference of what, 500?

[B]

And then he gets the 500.

[C]

But then if he's shading that he bought it at 2.9, and then he's stating.

[A]

So but then you add to that difference between 2.89 and 2.3, that's another $500,000.

[C]

A million bucks in the contract.

[B]

I had this two minutes ago.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, but I'm just. I'm walking. I'm walking myself through the math.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And then the. The price that he says that he sold for. Yeah, we're looking at somewhere. Yeah, about 1.52 mil.

[C]

The. No, 1,500,000 on one side.

[B]

If he bought the house for 1.7.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

And he says he bought it for 2.9, and it's listed. It's valued at 2.4. He got it covered up to $500,000 in losses, which is, coincidentally, the difference between what it's valued at and what he claims he bought it for.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

If he sells it at the market value of 2.4, he makes the 700 grand from the sale, or 5, 600, whatever it was, plus the 500 grand he gets from LSU in the alleged losses, which equals a million dollars.

[C]

Now. Now, obviously, Velsu could prove what he actually bought it for then he would.

[B]

It seems like Mississippi doesn't tell you that.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

This also could be a situation where during the negotiation of the contract, they talked about all this.

[C]

Well, look, you know Lane.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Yeah, dude. I mean the gu. I mean the.

[B]

Yes.

[C]

The governor led the charge on this. Again, how LSU suddenly has so much money is the governor has turned his entire political apparatus, hypothetically, allegedly, I should say, has allegedly turned much of his political machine into funding these endeavors. Because I think we talked about like the governor getting this involved in LSU football was a very risky thing and that if he fucks up, LSU football is probably the only possible way for him to lose his base because they believe in him so much. But it reminds me. So one thing like Julius Caesar was known for back in the day and a lot of guys. But were these just massive political gambles where he would go all in, he had to win this election or he would be destitute, he'd be completely ruined. But he almost always pulled him off this, had that sort of feeling like. It felt like the governor incurred a lot of needless risk in with LSU football. But now that he's landed Lane, the common people are beside themselves with excitement. He's got over 25 million a year in, in roster commitments to, to, to fund the roster. And if Lane wins, people are already saying that the governor's guaranteed to get a second term.

[A]

Yeah, I would agree with that.

[C]

So it's, it's a, it's a really crazy football based Louisiana. And the best allegations that I heard hypothetically is that.

Maybe the governor's Because Louisiana, very poor demographically, but massive companies do business there, right. Oil, gas, chemical, all that. So maybe hypothetically, these companies have some really big tax breaks in one form or another. Could be property tax, something like that. And maybe hypothetically you say, you know.

If you don't want to give 10 million to the program, like maybe I have to take a look at these breaks here and maybe. And they save you a lot more than 10 million. So I don't know. I mean, you do, you, you, you do what you want to do.

[A]

You do what you football runs Louisiana.

[B]

If LSU wins the national championship next year, is there anything Jeff Landry could do to not get reelected?

[C]

No, no, not zero. I mean, already he has more power than anybody's had since the Kingfish. It's a seat that has always been, as I understand it's very layman's understanding of it, but it's because of the rule change that the Kingfish made. The governorship has Always been nearly, like, dictatorial. Now, I think some of it got drawn back, maybe post Huey P. Long, but, like, one thing that. One thing that I always understood is that even Edwin Edwards, who's another very powerful Louisiana governor, that even he never had, like, the AG's office, but now Landry even has that, so that he. He literally has more power than anybody has had since. Since the Kingfish has. And now he's used it to get Lane Kiffin. And you mentioned that promise. You know, if Ole Miss wins a playoff game, LSU is paying the bonus.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah. Which is why they're sending all their coaches back.

[C]

Lane.

[A]

Just go make Lane some money.

[C]

They gave Lane everything to get him to Baton Rouge.

[A]

That's. It's absolutely crazy. Crazy stuff going on down there. Big Two, we got some other stuff in the news. We talked a little bit about this on Tuesday's show about how FIFA in the World cup scheduled the pride match between two countries that are historically, what, 70 years behind the times when it comes to gay rights.

[B]

Probably more.

[A]

Okay, so they right now have apparently drawn the ire of Egypt and Iran. Egypt especially.

[C]

Is Egypt and Iran playing a pride in the prime.

[B]

Correct. It was established before they drew the teams. And the pride match in Seattle is between Egypt and Iran. And Egypt has sent a letter to FIFA saying, this will not continue.

[A]

It's against the law to be gay in Egypt and Iran.

[C]

Oh, my God.

[A]

And that's pride match.

They said they're moving forward as planned with the. With the pride match. And Egypt is like, please don't make us play in the gay game. That would be. That would be bad. You can get the death penalty in Iran if you are homosexual. So I. I mean, the funniest thing would be just if. If the local gay community just bought all the tickets for that game. And so everybody in the stands was gay, and nobody on the field was, like. Was totally comfortable playing in that environment.

[B]

Do you think FIFA's gonna let it go on?

[A]

I don't know.

[C]

There's no way.

[A]

I don't know. I don't know. What, would they just cancel the pride match now?

[B]

You went to Qatar.

[A]

I did.

[B]

All I heard was everyone went to guitar. Like, be careful. Like, you gotta. You know, they're really strict about enforcing their own stuff. Like, you got to be on your P's and Q's.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

But now they come over here and they get to. They get to dictate what we do.

[A]

Well, this is not us. This is. It's FIFA.

[B]

No, I know, but I know I get what you're saying, but it seems to think that, like, if I own the United States as well. Yeah.

[C]

If I couldn't smoke weed and cut her, then, like, you. You have to love gay people here. Yeah.

[B]

Like, one guy said, sorry, Allah doesn't call the shots here. You're gay now. Welcome.

[A]

Yeah, like, what about if, like, back in 2022, when I was over in Qatar, they did this thing where at the last second, they. They took the beer out of the stadiums and replayed. They told everyone that they would have alcoholic beer in the stadiums for the games. And then, like, a week before the matches, they were like, we're actually going to take all that beer and send it out of the country so you can still drink beer. It's going to be zero alcohol beer that we'll have in the stage. What if Ireland had been like, fuck you.

[B]

We demand beer.

[A]

We demand beer at our games.

[C]

And then in a classic, you know, rich people ruled the world. Didn't the sweets get to keep the alcohol?

[A]

The sweets did have alcohol. And the suite that I ended up in by the seat of my pants during one of the games did not have alcohol because I think it was loosely connected to the Amir of Qatar.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

It was his. It was his suite, which did not feature alcohol. But I. Yeah, there was. There were, like, five different bars in the entire country that were allowed to. To sell beer. And I. I went to the same one, like, every single day that I was there. So there were ways that you could get around it legally, but for the most part, it was. It was pretty dry. Now also, there was a lot of talk of don't wear this, don't wear that over there. And for the most part, I didn't see many women at all wearing shorts or short dresses that went above the knee. I think for the most part, everybody was wearing, like, you know, full pants.

[C]

Yeah. So we need, like, full pride festival. Like, dungeon gear.

[A]

Nude.

[C]

Yeah. Like, ball gags. Like. Yeah. They have to adopt. They have to adopt our dress code.

[A]

Our customs over there. Yeah, that's. FIFA is just ridiculous.

[C]

I'm gonna be in that crowd with a Speedo and nipple tassels on an American flag headband, American flag bandana, or, excuse me, a. A rainbow flag bandana. Enforcing my culture on these.

[A]

I love it. I love Go FIFA. What else we got in the news today?

[C]

Have you all seen. Okay, so I'm a big. You ever watch Coffeezilla or his other channel, Voidzilla?

[A]

I have, yeah.

[C]

Okay, so have you seen. He just Came out with a video and, and I don't know enough to be talking about this publicly, but I don't know.

[B]

Whatever.

[C]

It's, it's, it's something that should look into. Do your own research.

Have you seen some of the talk around? Well, not the Nvidia bubble necessarily. There's a lot of debate over whether or not Nvidia is a bubble. And the big short guy is now very involved in. And he's written a lot extensively about. Apparently he's out the hedge fund game. He now runs a paywalled blog in which he writes about all these things.

But apparently the entire US Economy right now is all in on Nvidia and the, the AI revenue that has to come from it. But may or may not.

[A]

It is. It's like the, the one thing that's propping up all the gains in the stock.

[C]

Stock market, yes. Like the entire US Economy is being propped up by video. And if it fails, then we're in a risk, then, then a recession will come. But again, it already feels like we're.

[A]

In a recession outside of that one company. Yeah.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I think for most people the criteria is there. If you're not, if you are not doing business in some way or some interconnected way with, with Nvidia or one of the other, like three AI companies that are, are heavily involved in that, then, yeah, I think you're technically in a recession. I kind of believe the guy. I really do. Because I don't think that the revenue is coming. I think, I think that like every technology, it emerges to the consumer about, like 10 years too early. I was thinking back to Google Glass. You remember that?

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Back in like 2015, 2016. And they're like, it's a wearable and it's going to change the way people get around cities. You're going to have like, instructions of where to go on your navigation apps that show up on your, on your glasses and it just sucked and you look like a weirdo. Right. And now I think the technology is probably getting to the point where you could make those glasses. And I know that MET is trying to.

[C]

The meta glasses seem to have gained some foothold at least.

[A]

Well, and they've got the new ones coming out that have the stuff that pops up on the lenses so you can like see it as a screen.

[C]

Fully get into Google Glass territory.

[A]

Yeah. And I think that AI is kind of at that point right now where they're like, it's ready to be unleashed upon the consumer. And businesses are like, okay, we'll give it a shot. And they're like, this kind of sucks actually. And there's so much money and pressure for them to make revenues back to their investors that I don't, I don't think it's going to be profitable right now.

[C]

So one interesting example that the big short guy, and I should remember his name, I don't. But, but, but that he writes about is there's this quote from the Nvidia CEO, we're not Enron. And and then he talks about the dot com bubble, right? And with the dot com bubble where all this money was being thrown in to these websites and everything like ask jeeves or pets.com or whatever. And there, there wasn't revenue there.

But basically because like there, there, there wasn't ways of monetizing whatever. But he says no, we're not, he writes it like, no, I'm not, I'm not saying you're Enron, I'm saying you're Cisco. And at the time Cisco was a major, major, still is, but I guess you know, at the time like kind of the leader like telecommunications or whatnot. And so they invested massive amounts of money in creating Internet infrastructure that ended up being, because of the change of technology, way overbuilt and basically irrelevant and way over invested in. So there was never return to be able to be drawn out. And so he's claiming that there's the potential there for a company like Nvidia, that that's what they're doing. They're away over investing in this infrastructure, in this and, and the technology that is not going to be relevant to produce return. And one thing he points to as maybe a red flag is they've apparently recently engaged in a, an interesting accounting technique, okay. Where they have changed how they math the depreciation of their GPUs. They used to math them on a three year scale saying in three years the GPUs will be irrelevant and they depreciate accordingly. And they've changed that to six years. What does that mean? That means the GPU lasts longer, so it depreciates less each year. So you're, you're able to put more revenue on the books, you're losing less money. Right, but the problem is as they're doing that, they're also saying that they're having to innovate at a warp speed pace to keep up with the rate of change in technology. So they're trying to tell you we're innovating our GPUs at a warp speed. Pace, but they're going to last longer. Even though we're innovating, making stuff irrelevant way faster, that feels like a, a bugaboo.

[A]

That could be a red flag. There's also, if you're in a situation like that, you need to find, you look, you need to look for any sort of revenue stream that you can possibly find. In the short term, you get like, yes, a little bit desperate. What we've seen with Nvidia is going back and forth of whether or not they're going to be able to sell their chips to the largest consumer base in the world, which is China. And they were, they've been told that they could, they've been told that they could not do that because of security concerns, like, do we want China to have our most powerful chips and our most powerful technology and they'll be able to keep up with what we're building over here in the United States? That was taken off the, off the books for a long time. Just yesterday, Trump said that we are going to allow them to sell chips to China, but the government's going to take a 25% cut of what you sell to China. But that does feel like something that you would really try to pull off if you knew that this company, Nvidia absolutely needed a lot of short term revenue to cover up for some of those losses and depreciations. And I have no idea if this is part of the deal or this is what, what Trump's even thinking, but the fact that the entire US Economy is kind of running through Nvidia, their success, they're too big to fail, is very much tied into the success of the United States economy at large. And numbers you can point to on a screen being like the S, P is up or the S and P is down.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So the government would also be incentivized to let their biggest company do well financially if it comes to, you know, selling chips to China. And that might be what we're looking at right now.

[C]

And, and you know, you, you may be thinking out there, oh, God, this feels terrible. Right. I'm not heavily invested in stocks. I'm not seeing any of these returns. But we are because all of our retirement funds are all tied in, all of our 401ks, all the money, if you're lucky enough to have one that you're saving so you can live and not have to work and toil your entire life, you need Nvidia and AI. So you have a, let's say you're a conscientious Objector to AI. Well, you're working against yourself.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

You hate the idea of it replacing human jobs. Well, I hope you enjoy not being retired. Like, even if you don't want to be in it, you're fucking in it.

One thing that I heard about in pft, Big T.

I don't know if y' all know anything about it. It's mentioned in the video. Real quick. I haven't looked into it because I just heard this yesterday, but it's, It's. It seems so sci fi to me and so kind of fantastic from a cynical. Everything's going to burn anyway, so I just love stuff like this. But we've formed the Genesis Project, which they're likening to the Manhattan Project and initiative put together by Trump with all of the top tech companies in the world to. I mean, Genesis. It's got to be. To create, like, fully, like, full, true AI, not machine learning. Right. But be the first to get true AI. Creation.

[A]

It's named after creation.

[C]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. It's clearly called the Genesis Project.

[A]

Yeah, that's.

[C]

I think they should have been more secret. I don't know why we know about it versus something like the Manhattan Project, but I still find that to be really cool. That's like straight out of a sci fi movie.

[A]

What's the point of having a project if you can't talk about it, though? If you can't, like, get everybody excited?

[C]

Yeah, but you got. But you got to show a little. A little discretion. Right. At least we waited to be like, look how badass the Manhattan Project was.

[A]

Right.

[C]

We had all of this information siloed. We had secret areas of the country and, like, unassuming towns that were all directed towards this. Like, we're putting the cart before the horse. If we're announcing the creation of the.

[A]

Genesis Project, the payoff is way better if you just unleash Genesis.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Rather than discuss the development of the genesis of Genesis.

[C]

Yes. We don't need the Genesis of Genesis. Give me. Have Genesis show up on the scene and then be like, ha, we've been doing this for the last 30 years.

[A]

Yeah, he does.

[C]

We've created God.

[A]

Yeah, he does want a little bit of the buzz and the credit that goes to starting Genesis. Yeah, that. You know where it came from. You heard it here first. We're doing Genesis. Before we started recording, Big T and I were talking a little bit about the. The college football playoffs. T. Bob. And how the discourse around Tulane and JMU has now reached a critical Mass.

[C]

I think it's a fever pitch for sure.

[A]

Yeah, it's. We're at critical mass, and I've been the first to not. I will not apologize for Jamie being in the playoff, but I've been the first to say that, yeah, we're probably going to get dog stomped by Oregon. It's probably going to be ugly. Oregon's got. If you look at size, Oregon's got.

[C]

As much NFL talent as anybody in the country.

[A]

We have some size, but we've got. They've got size and speed together.

[C]

We talked to Baldinger about this and. Or no, sorry. Actually, maybe this was Brock Hewitt, but he's just looking at draft stuff and he's like, there's an Oregon player. There's an Oregon player. Like, yeah, Oregon is quickly.

[B]

People are really underestimating them.

[C]

Who? Oregon? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And it's also the most complete Oregon team that we've seen, like, from a defensive and offensive. Anyway, sorry.

[A]

Yeah, no, I. I've been the first to say that. Yeah, it's probably going to get ugly. But now we've reached the point where. Where Bud Elliott and I. I listen to Bud and I. I follow Bud, and he usually is pretty insightful. He's got some things that he looks at that the average fan would not pick up on.

[C]

He's deep, deep into his autist level. College football breakdown.

[A]

Bud, Bud knows about programs that you haven't even heard of.

[C]

Yes. And he'll.

[A]

He'll go too deep on that roster. But now he's reached the take where he is now saying it's a health and safety issue for JMU playing against Oregon. And at that point, I got a tap out. Bud. I got. At this point, I'm almost ready to say, fuck it, let's just go beat him.

[C]

I mean, so I, I actually. It's funny, I guess. Two thoughts. I've always thought that you could argue that having, like, FCS team play a major FPS power is a bit of a player safety issue, because you're, like, throwing them out there against guys who are just clearly superior in some ways. But the other one is, I tweeted this yesterday that there's almost so much talk about what a waste these two spots are.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

That I almost feel like one of them's gonna beat him.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Like, do we live in a world where the impossible happens? Because. Because it's just like gambling light. Like Sharps will fade the public. Just because the public is so in on something that they have to be wrong.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

I was thinking about this morning, it's almost like a commentary against general democracy that gambling experts are like, oh, like the general public all believe this dude, it doesn't even matter. We're going the other way, the public because more often than not they're going to be wrong because they're dumb.

[A]

Yeah. I mean as somebody that watches a lot of college football, I think that I, I still think that Oregon is a much better team than James Madison and the spread reflects that. Is it still at 20 and a half?

[B]

Yeah, 21 some. And they've been missing their best player for a month plus.

[A]

Yeah, listen, the ball knower in me understands that. But when you hear so many people say that like this, these kids are going to get killed. I hope that they survive this game against Oregon. I listen FCS teams, they are fcs. They play against.

FBS teams all the time. Well and they, they typically make it through the game without anybody getting killed. Now that's, it's also implying that JMU and the rest of the group of five are equivalent to FCS teams, which is not true. No, it's not true. And Plenty Group of 5 teams end up beating Power 5 Power 4 conferences during the regular season. It happens several times every year. Tulane beat Duke, Tulane beat jams Northwestern. Right now they were both home games which is awesome for Tulane that they, they're able to schedule these teams to come down to New Orleans and play against them there.

[C]

Shout out yeoman.

[A]

That's not going to happen in Harrisonburg. Teams will not go to Harrisonburg. But let's not act like the kids are going to get killed on the football field. They're gone a little bit too far.

[C]

Yeah, they're not going to get killed. I and Liam Blutman's been banging this drum because I'm someone who, I've always advocated that I think a group of five, eight team playoff and a group of five national champion would be very exciting because it's a different, it's. It's objectively a different level of football. But, but again if you're not enough.

[B]

Enough with the playoffs, we don't need more, we don't need more teams, we don't need another playoff. No more playoffs.

[A]

Just make the group of five into FCS again. That's all that means is like now you have another Division 2 playoff essentially.

[C]

Yeah, yeah. But like, but it's still a better level of football than fcs. It's still a more interesting level with more talent. But, but whatever. That, that doesn't matter. But like Liam's pointed this out that okay, y' all are mad about potential group of five bloats, but all the major conferences have still been getting blown out for the most part in these first round games.

[B]

Well, it's not about blowouts. It's about do these teams really deserve. And listen.

Notre Dame has no leg to stand on. They, they lost the two games they played against really good teams. They didn't get in there. And I, and I will be far from the person to bang for like 10 and 2, 9 and 3 teams to beginning of the playoff. We have too many as it is. However, I mean Notre Dame would beat the shit out of both these teams. They're way better now.

[C]

Andy is better Notre Dame now if you believe.

[B]

Yeah, I actually do think Vanderbilt. If, if you replaced Vandy's logo with any other SEC logo and that team got left out, there would be riots in the streets.

But like what was I saying about Notre Dame? They, and I understand, I don't think they should have gotten in under the current format. But like we're, we're handing out spots to.

[C]

I just, I, I don't, I, I think and, and deserving is interesting because like, you know, you could argue they are deserving because what Tulane did and stacking a couple powerful wins, winning the American, one of their losses, coming Ole Miss, like there was a tough conference. It's deserving within the context of their schedule, which am. You did deserving within the context of their schedule. I just hate all the subjectivity. Like I, I, I, I feel like.

[B]

I disagree with, I feel like if.

[C]

We just had an objective system, you want the NFL by the wayside.

[B]

By the way, the playoff being what it is has absolutely contributed to part of what we're seeing in like the private equity side and stuff like that. This is becoming a shittier version of the NFL. The reason college football has been awesome for a hundred years is that it was a completely different thing. It had different traditions, it worked differently, it was a wholly different concept and entity. And now we're turning it into just a junior version of the NFL and stripping away much of what has made it unique and fun over the years. At which point why would anyone care about college football? You don't care about minor league baseball because it's just shittier. Major league baseball, sure there are a couple people who like it and you know, love to go to minor league games, whatever, but it's not even on the same playing field.

[C]

Yeah, but you don't have the emotional tie into a minor league.

[B]

Nobody's going to have the emotional tie into college football because we're stripping away all of that.

[C]

Oh, but you're still going. But, but, but again, you're stripping away things that made it unique. But you're still going to the school or you, I think somebody who, I.

[B]

Think you're going to look up in 20 gears and it's going to be remarkably different.

[C]

I mean, but the NFL fan bases are also, I don't know. I, I, I. Here's my problem. It's just that.

We'Ve already gone down this road of like, if one of the unique things is like cheapening the regular season or something. I just, again, we've already got, I just, I hate, I don't trust people's opinions. People say like, I don't trust my own opinions. I say them and I think I know what is best. But I'm more than willing to admit that I don't know, it's just an opinion.

[B]

To be fair, I think we saw this year they didn't go with their opinion. Their opinion was that Notre Dame was better than Miami, which I agree with.

[C]

And they honored the head, which I agree with.

[B]

But I also think that if Miami beat you, sorry, you're out.

[C]

I agree, I agree. And I was glad to see that because that was a moment where objectivity superseded subjectivity.

[B]

Agreed. But we don't need. I don't want to put words in your mouth. Are you advocating for like the top six teams in the SEC play like one versus six, two versus, yes.

[C]

And then nobody get. And then nobody get. And then nobody gets an extra game.

[B]

I think that's terrible.

[C]

And then nobody like, then you bring back value to the conference championships. 1 and 2 play in the SEC in the Big Ten, the winner gets a buy.

But both teams are.

[B]

You want the NFL playoffs, you have.

[C]

Six and three play for a spot, four and five play for a spot. So nobody's off TV wins. They create more revenue. Yeah, I find, yeah, but t, I find it, I find it more satisfying personally to have it decided on the field instead of in the committee room.

[B]

So then how many teams should make it?

[C]

That's in a 16 team set. It'd be 4, 4, 2, 2 and.

[B]

Then the 4 hour 16 is not going to be enough and so on and so forth.

[C]

No, it seems people say that with the slippery slope argument and maybe it's true. I could be wrong here.

[B]

I mean, we went from 4 to 12 and they tried to expand the 12 before ever playing it.

[C]

Yeah, no, and, and, and I Agree that it does seem like reading the room. There's a general.

There'S not much of an appetite for going beyond 16.

[B]

But until you get to 16 and see, oh we made an extra $74 million this year. We would make an additional 80 if we pushed it to 24.

[C]

I and again I, I could be wrong there. So maybe if you go to 16 then you know, next contract we're up 24. Maybe you're right about that. I guess my problem with the subjectivity thing is it's like when people talk about well just hire the best person. How do you know who the fuck the best person is? NFL teams commit millions upon millions of dollars to evaluating quarterbacks and miss at a 50% rate if not worse. Coaches anything hire like so hire the best person. Oh well put in the best teams. How the fuck do you know the best teams are? You can't tell me you know, especially not in a game where you play for 60 minutes and it's a singular fight. This is not baseball where you play seven games and more often than not the better team will win the series. This is a one day affair, a three hour roller coaster in which anything can happen. So I don't want you telling me you know what's best I want to fucking solved on the field.

[B]

I don't even disagree with you that much but I think like this year how many teams that had a case to get in got left out. I would say it's one. I think Vandy and it's Vanderbilt.

[C]

Vandy.

[B]

Notre Dame lost to Miami. That, that kicked.

[C]

Okay you're saying. Yeah, okay that's fair.

[B]

I think one team that had a case to get it. BYU had no case.

[C]

Oh I disagree.

[B]

They played one team that was like playoff caliber twice. Their offense was non functional both times.

[C]

You could do all sort of. Yeah but against again but this kind of like people want to on Indiana last year but Indiana's two losses to the two teams that played in that championship like I would have been fine.

[B]

If Indiana didn't make the playoff.

[C]

Texas Tech is national. Yeah but that's crazy. Indiana was way better than all the other teams in the playoff last year. Except for the two they into. I think they would have beaten the.

[B]

We don't know. They played two teams with a pulse and got killed both times.

[C]

But so in that, but, but in that same vein like okay so BYU's crime is losing a Texas Tech who looks to be a top four team.

[B]

No getting killed twice.

[C]

Okay but if you blind resume with.

[B]

Them with Ole Miss, one team with a pulse.

[C]

I would argue that BYU has a very valid argument.

[A]

I'm looking at the first round matchups from last year and we've got. So Tennessee lost by 25 points to Ohio State.

[B]

The margin in posthumously does not matter. That's not part of the argument. Like after the fact, the margin of the game. I don't care about that.

[A]

No, no, I'm just saying like the, the, the first round matchups last year, Penn State beat SMU by 28 points. Notre Dame beat Indiana by 10. But if you watch that game, that might have, it might have won by 30, 27 to nothing. What I'm, what I'm just getting at is let's not look at the results from this year if they happen to be lopsided and be like, wow, this is terrible for the sport happened last year.

[B]

Well, to be fair, nobody's arguing based on results. They're arguing based on the principle of. Because the results haven't happened yet.

[A]

Right. The format, you could definitely say.

Giving automatic qualification seeds to the top five conference champions is probably not the best format to write in if you're trying to determine who the best football team in the country is. That was a handout to the conferences to make sure that their championship games stay relevant and now this is the result of it. So maybe do a better job of writing the rules.

[B]

This would have been a great year for a 14 playoff.

[C]

The thing is, it's like.

If we go the subjective route, college football is a sport that has so much room to play in the margins because even in the massive like this, something that Brandon goes back to when I talk about, you know, do the more objective setting is that he always argues that, well, there's too many teams now, so people aren't playing equal Schedules. Conferences are too big. Yeah. Because yes, the conferences are too big. That's what I mean. So college football not only has the problem with the conferences being too big, but then also there's a billion teams, especially 140 teams.

[B]

So here's all I would ask.

[C]

If you create a system that is relying on subjectivity.

You can massage things to basically justify any argument.

[B]

And that's true. But do you acknowledge and or like the system that you're advocating for is going to lead to a 30 to 40 team Super League that's just going to be a miniature NFL like that.

[C]

Power four is already a super league?

[B]

No, but not to the extent that it's going. It's going to be a walled off actual 40 team league. Like, some of the power four is going to get kicked out and it's going to be like, okay, 16 of those go to the playoff. Like, do you want that?

[C]

Well, no, I don't think. I don't think we're. I mean, I don't. Why would anybody get kicked out?

[B]

Well, because, like, you're not gonna have.

[A]

If not bringing the money.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

If you're not. Yeah. Like historically bad Power 4 teams like.

[B]

Mississippi State not going to be in there.

[A]

Like, look at half of the acc.

[B]

Vandy may be saving themselves now, but wait, programs like that aren't going to be in it.

[C]

Why? I'm not. I'm not talking a new league. I'm just talking about.

[B]

But that's going to be a logical consequence of this is like, why are we sharing the money with.

[C]

But that's a logical consequence. Whether you're doing subjective or objective playoffs.

[B]

That's a logical concept, but it makes more sense. Like, it. It ties in with what you're advocating for. Like, okay, we already have like an NFL playoff system. Let's just go ahead and make it a league like the NFL.

[C]

I think, I mean, I think, I.

[B]

Think, I think, I think something like that's going to happen regardless, but I think it's expedited.

[C]

That's what I'm saying. I don't think it's expanded one way or another. I think. I think if that's your fear, I think things are heading that direction anyway, regardless. Form of the playoff. No, I don't think that's going to happen, though. I don't think that's going to happen. I think. I think. I think there will be.

[B]

You just said you think it's heading that way anyway.

[C]

I think. I think that's what it looks like.

[B]

I.

[C]

But I, But I think at the end of the day that the.

Conferences.

Have enough of a. Maybe vested interest isn't right.

It. It feels. And maybe this is just because I, I can't conceptualize a long enough timeline, but it feels too dark to think about because, like, they've had opportunity in recent years to come to form the Super League and it looked like that's what we were about to get with the Big Ten. That maybe stuff like the Big 12 and ACC would be picked apart and. And fall apart. It seems like for now it's solidified at a power four. But yeah, I mean, to your point, maybe. Maybe in. But that's. But either that's going to happen regardless or we're going to put a stop to it regardless. I don't think objective or subjective playoffs has an effect one way or another in that regard.

[B]

I think it could have an effect.

[A]

We'll see.

[C]

I wish. I mean, fuck the NFL. College football should become the EPL and do relegation. Yeah.

[A]

It'll never happen.

[C]

I would never happen because nobody would ever run. Run the risk of it.

[B]

It's a completely different. It's a completely different thing. You just can't do it here.

[A]

It would be insane.

[C]

I think college football, you. It's actually the most set up American sport to do it.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

How?

[C]

Because we already have power four, group of five. It's like we already have these divisions.

[B]

All right, so you finish last in the sec, which this year is what Kentucky. And you go play in. You go Sunbelt.

[C]

Yeah, you can play in the Sunbelt. I win your way back up.

[A]

Y. Yeah.

[C]

Yeah. Be awesome.

[A]

I think T. Bob's right. It is the. The most ready for that.

[C]

That.

[A]

For that format.

[C]

It would be so sick too, because then if like Kentucky and Mississippi State, they're playing the last game of the season, losers relegated. That game is massive.

[B]

All of a sudden. I don't think it's set up for that. Because media rights are bargained by.

[C]

Oh, yes.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

No, again, it's not realistic. Like, I still want to read that book about how the EPL got formed. Fascinating.

[B]

I actually recommended it to somebody the other day. It's remarkably analogous to the current state of color football.

[C]

So I cannot fathom though, how did they convince people to agree to the risk of relegation? Because that's the thing. Why would any. Okay, because I was gonna say, why would any of these schools ever agree to miss out on the sec? Revenue sharing. So they had a bad year.

[B]

The Premier League was just called. What was it called before.

It existed in much of the same way. It was the top flight of England, but it just. It was the Premier League.

[C]

So relegation wasn't a function of the EPL being created.

[B]

No, that existed long before.

[C]

Yeah. So you can't bring people to relegation. It has to be in there from its inception.

[A]

This actually sounds like a great graphic to discuss on Wake Up Barstool Tomorrow is if there was the EPL model of relegation where the bottom two teams in each conference were sent down.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Figure out what conferences they go to, which ones would come up.

[B]

So JMU would come up to the sec.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And then.

[A]

Or maybe acc. I feel like we're more an ACC country.

[C]

And look, and then you get. Then you get more money and you can immediately buy the roster to get.

[A]

Competitive and then see see what the the new leagues would look like going into next year. I would like to look at that. I'm, I'm, let's create this. I love, I love looking at graphics and just thinking, man, that'd be cool if that happened. We'll get back to chopping up a T bob in a second. Today's episode's brought to you by Sport Clips. The holiday season is packed. There's football to watch, relatives to visit, presents that you need to buy at the last minute sometimes. Fortunately, Sport Clips Haircut is the perfect holiday timeout. Just when you thought the MVP experience couldn't get any more relaxing, the Playmaker scents are back. For a limited time, choose one of three all new seasonal scents for your hot steam towel. Take your relaxation to the next level. Of course, you're still getting a massage shampoo. You're getting the sharp cut just in time for holiday photos. Don't let the hustle and bustle of the holidays get you down. Try one of the holiday Playmaker scents. They're available until December 27th at participating locations only. Where permitted by law. Sport Clips is a game changer. The scents include Cold Mint Plunge. That's a burst of chilled mint. It's mixed with cool winter air. You've got Tailgate Huddle, which is the warmth of embers and spice. It smells like victory. You've got Vanilla Spice and the warmth of a campfire in there. And then you got Halftime Chill, which is a refreshing blast of crisp, clean confidence. It's relaxation bottled like if Santa had a favorite cologne. Try one of the holiday Playmaker scents available until December 27th at participating locations only, where permitted by law. Sport Clips. It's a game changer and this episode is also brought to you by Lucy. I have my Lucy right here. It's 100 pure nicotine. It's always tobacco free. Lucy breakers are nicotine pouches with an extra surprise. Each pouch holds a hydration capsule. You crush it anytime for an instant burst of long lasting flavor. Lucy is available nationwide. However you shop, Lucy's got you covered. Set it, forget it with a monthly subscription delivered straight to your door from Lucy Co. Let's level up that nicotine routine with Lucy, the only pouch that delivers long lasting, on demand flavor. Find your closest store at Lucy Co.

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[C]

Very disruptive. At least eight different Dukes have at least five Tiffles.

[B]

You love saying that.

[C]

I hate saying TFLs. Why? It's so.

[B]

That's what it is. It's an acronym.

[C]

It's. Yeah, but it's not mellifluous. It doesn't roll out the tongue. It feels. It feels.

It feels unwieldy. Where Tiffles just snappy.

[B]

I think tiffle sounds displeasing to me.

[C]

Ever since I heard mellifluous, it just lodged my brain. I can't. I can't escape it.

[A]

You know what my favorite word to say is now? What actually are we recording right now? Can we just start with T. Bob talking about how fun malifluous is to say. Sure. And we can just expand this. My favorite word to say now is the word disqualification, but in a Jamaican accent.

[C]

Can I get an example?

[A]

Yeah. Disqualification.

You try. Give it a spin.

[C]

Disqualification, man. That's like. I like saying, you got to do Sean.

[A]

Disqualification.

[C]

Disqualification.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

See, that was like if Darth Vader.

[C]

Was Jamaican, that should be like in. In. In like a judgment sport. Like, if you can get dq, that should be what the announcer does.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

Disqualification.

And then, like, the lights go right, they get kicked out.

[A]

Mad Dog, you try.

[D]

Disqualification.

[A]

Oh, that was a good Mackenzie.

[C]

Give it.

[A]

Give it a shot.

[C]

Disqualification.

[A]

Big T. I don't know. That's too much nonsense. Big T's not a nonsense.

[C]

What about kind of in that same vein? I like saying some words that I know I'm pronouncing maybe in the more UK style, but I just find it fun. Like, I like saying aluminium.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Instead of aluminum.

[B]

That one's objectively wrong.

[C]

I don't know. A lot of them are objectively wrong, but I just like.

[B]

Like, they have some that are just a different difference of pronunciation. That one. They add a syllable. That's not it.

[C]

They might spell it differently.

[A]

They do spell it differently. It's. It's correct.

[C]

You know how they throw, like, a lot of E's onto stuff?

[A]

Yeah. They put an eye in aluminum.

[B]

Well, that's dumb.

[C]

Oh, God. What was one?

There's a word that I bounced back and forth on. I was just talking about it yesterday.

[A]

I don't remember.

[C]

It'll probably come to me.

[A]

Do you have any words that you like to say, Big T?

[B]

I'm sure I do. I don't.

[C]

I like to say cacophony.

[A]

Cacophony. Is good. That's an excellent word. Yes, agreed.

[B]

Myriad. I like.

[C]

Great. Exacerbate. I'm a big exacerbate guy.

[A]

I like prerogatives. Good.

[B]

A lot of people don't know that first R in there.

[A]

I know, I know. Can you spell prerogative?

[C]

Pr. It's pr.

[A]

It's P, R, E, R, E, R.

[C]

O, G, A, T, I, V. Yeah.

[A]

Crazy word to spell. Mad Dog McKenzie. Do you guys have a favorite word to say?

I don't think so. Not off the top of my head.

[B]

Juxtaposition.

[A]

Oh, that's a good one.

[D]

Good one.

[A]

Most guys have one.

[C]

I just. Like. I. Did y' all do SAT prep in high school?

[A]

I did. Yeah.

[C]

So, you know, like the vocab portion. We used to have these vocab tests every Tuesday, and.

It just made me. I. I just love vocab.

[A]

I just.

[C]

I just. I love. I love words. And I know it's pretentious and shitty, but I just love it. It.

[A]

It puts a wrinkle in your brain if you do the word of the day calendar and you retain it and you try to use that in a sense.

[C]

I need to do a word.

[A]

A big sat word. Superfluous.

[C]

Love. Superfluous. That was. Yeah, that was one of them.

[A]

That was one of them. That was always one. They asked you to determine the difference between or explain the difference between accurate and precise. I remember that.

[C]

Did you say the difference is superfluous?

[A]

The difference between being accurate and being precise is. Being accurate means if you're, like, throwing darts, you're hitting the bullseye every single time.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

If you're being precise, that could mean that all your darts are going to the same location, but not necessarily the most advantageous.

[B]

I actually thought it was reversed.

[A]

I screw that up.

[B]

I think precise is what people think accurate means.

[C]

Is it like. I used to think that approximate was exact, but approximate is not exact.

[A]

No, no, it's certainly not.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Approximate is like.

[C]

I. I used that word inversely for a long time. I also used dearth inversely for a long time.

[A]

Dirth.

[C]

I thought dirt. That's like. You had many options.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. Dearth. There's a dearth.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

No, you were right.

[B]

So there. There. It's high accuracy, low precision. There. It's high precision, low accuracy, which does make sense intuitively. Like, that's what you think those words mean. But I just thought I remembered them being like. When you actually get down to the definitions, that precise was more what people think they mean when they Say accurate.

[A]

Right. So on Monday Night Football, Jalen Hurts was precise, but not accurate.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

He threw a lot of passes at the same location, which was the other defense is hands. But not accurate.

[B]

The Mike Wazowski to my.

[A]

To Sully.

[B]

Well, they were both out there.

[C]

Mike Wazowski, who ended up winning the Scarecast.

[A]

It was Sully. Sully. Sully played defense. Sully had what, five picks?

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

Or four picks. He had four picks. Yeah.

[C]

One. One that I'm always. It's always in my head, but I'm afraid to use because I don't know which definition it is, and it's the opposite. Is nadir. I can. I. I think it's the Valley. I think it's, like, the low point, but it is pinnacle. But it might be the pinnacle.

[A]

I think it might.

[B]

Fortunes.

[C]

See? But I always think it sounds kind of like pinnacle, and so I'm never confident enough to use it.

[A]

It's a prestigious sounding word, isn't it?

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. That's a mislabeled word. It should have the opposite. Opposite meaning.

[C]

I like amalgamation.

[D]

Oh.

[C]

I use that a lot around Thanksgiving because that's what I do to my Thanksgiving plate.

[A]

You know, what I do with my fight.

[D]

Right.

[A]

Thanksgiving plate. Also another fun word. I masticate.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I do a lot of mastication.

[B]

Pause.

[D]

Yeah. What's that?

[A]

Everybody masticates. Yeah.

[C]

Y' all masticate. You. I mean, I just masticated. Y' all probably masticate multiple times a day.

[A]

I took a quick mastication break about 10 minutes ago.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

I. I, too, did. Eating with my trail mix.

[A]

Chewing.

[C]

Chewing.

[B]

Nice.

[A]

Yeah. Chewing is mastication. Oh, I.

[C]

We were having this debate on Web this morning. Not a lot of support, but I've been thinking about a lot. What is your. What are your thoughts on raisins?

[A]

Oh, I thought you were gonna say.

[C]

And Mac Mad Dog. If you all have any strong thoughts as well.

[A]

No race.

[C]

No. No Raisins.

[A]

My thoughts on raisins. I enjoy raisins. I. I can't remember the last time I went out and I bought a pack of raisins, but raisins were a big thing when I was a kid. You get a little red boxes. That was. That was your snack that you would have. I'm having raisins today. I eat raisins and grapes much less frequently as an adult. I think part of the reason for that is as a dog owner, I.

[C]

They're bad for dogs.

[A]

I don't want to take any chances. Like, if your dog eats a grape Or a raisin. It can die. Yeah, it's, it's pretty serious business, so I don't really eat. I enjoy them in a mix. If it's like a, a trail mix. Love a good raisin in there.

[C]

Well, that, that's what it was kind of was. The genesis of the conversation was.

There were maybe some comments about them not really needing to be in the trail mix. And I thought that was absurd.

[A]

Yeah, I, I, they serve a very valuable purpose in the trail mix.

[C]

Like, I would, I, if we were to individually rank the elements, I would go cashew one because I'm just a cashew head. Cashews are a raw cashew, I think is nut.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Oh, my God.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Just a nature. Ah, I love it. A good soft, raw nut.

[A]

You ever have like the, the seasoned cashews?

[C]

Yeah, yeah, they're great too.

[A]

The grocery store I used to go to, I think in Texas, or maybe it was New York, but it had lemon pepper cashews.

[C]

Oh, man, I've never had those.

[A]

They were so good. You can make your own. You just get lemon pepper seasoning and then you mix your bag. Yeah, I love cashew peanut. To me, I, I almost enjoy the.

[C]

Peanuts on the bottom of my rankings.

[A]

And I like peanuts. Don't get me wrong, like, I'm a peanut guy. But in the trail mix, I think that the cashew is a more important item. I think that the raisin is more important item.

[C]

I'm probably going individual rankings on their own terms. I'm probably going cashew, almond, raisin, peanut, chocolate. I'm not a big sweet tooth guy necessarily. But then within the mix itself, the raisin to me is the glue. It's the alignment, it's the bass player. It is its texture change that it brings to the table is what holds the entire show together.

[A]

I know what you're saying. I would say in a band that what are the different elements? We got the cashew, we got the raisin, the peanut. What am I missing?

[C]

And the chocolate.

[A]

And the chocolate.

[C]

And the almond.

[A]

And the almond. Okay. I would say that the peanut is more like the drummer. No, I'd say bass player. I think I would put peanut as bass. I would put the raisin as lead guitarist.

[C]

See, I was going to go cash you as lead guitar.

[A]

No, I think I got chocolate as rhythm guitar player. And the raisin, to me, it stand. Both those two items stand out as the sweet ones.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

And I think the raisin offers something extra, like a little bit of bite that the, that the chocolate does. Not offer. And then I would say the cashew is probably.

Maybe the lead singer.

[C]

Yeah, makes sense.

[A]

Peanut. I would say bass player, but I.

[C]

Feel like, get a lot of shine. And I feel like bass players always get the least amount of shine in the band.

[A]

But you notice them when they're gone.

[C]

Yeah, no, absolutely.

[A]

I. This might be controversial when it comes to almonds. I love almonds. I don't like them in a mix. I. I will eat almonds as a snack. The seasoned almonds, the. The blue diamond ones that come in all the different flavor. Love those. Absolutely love those. But when it's in. In a mix, I could. That would be my first out, actually. I would say I could eat trail mix without the almonds.

[C]

I think you're right. I would rank them second in individual elements in terms of what I like to eat. But, yeah, they actually don't add much to the mix. They're kind of redundant.

[A]

I would say they might get in the way of the mix a little bit because the, like we said, the Peanut and the Cashew, they're kind of soft nuts.

[C]

Almonds a little harder.

[A]

Almonds a little harder. You gotta. You gotta crunch it. The almond is what gets stuck in your teeth the most. I think in the trail mix, I would enjoy it. Almond free trail mix.

[C]

What would be your overall nut rankings? To me, it's Cashew one with a bullet. I'm Pistachio two. And I'm Almond three. Yeah, that's my big three.

[A]

Yeah. Pistachio is so good.

[C]

Even though there's something a bit obscene or gratuitous about pre shucked pistachios.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

I feel like work for it. I feel like I need to work for it a little bit. It feels a bit like there's a.

[A]

Reason why you have to work hard. You're not. You're not supposed to eat a bunch of them at once.

[C]

And like, when I eat. When I eat pistachios, I try to do the discipline thing of, like, I shuck a lot and then try to hold them in my cheek to get a really satisfactory bite.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And when that work is taken out of it, it just feels.

It just feels like a bit much. It feels like, like in. In the Hunger Games. Like how in the Capital, they're just like, you know, gluttony. It feels gluttonous to eat them pre shucked.

[A]

I agree. I agree. Make us work for it a little bit. All right, so a little peek behind the curtain here. We had a guest that has to postpone on us And I. I will say that the reason for postponing seems legitimate. There's a big vote going on on the House floor right now.

[D]

Seems fair.

[A]

And this. This. This individual is in charge of a lot of things on the House floor. And because it's an unexpected close vote, this individual has to be down there to oversee everything going on. And we've been monitoring it. It's a legit excuse for postponing. So we won't. We will refrain from.

[C]

He's skipping out on the Joe Rogan of the left.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

He's never going to win another.

[A]

That's what they call him. In fact, I'd like to just make sure that everybody in Congress knows that you want to talk to the Joe Rogan of the left. Boom.

[D]

Get on Mac.

[A]

That's. That's such a. A cool phrase that we've injected into our national political discourse that I'm. I'm. I'm honored to be in that conversation. So we will have that individual on next week. It sounds like. Okay, good. Now, if. If it's double cancel, then you know how. You know how Joe does, right? I'm not smoking weed with that guy.

[C]

Are you dead? They're dead if it's a double cancel. Oh, yeah.

[A]

I'm going full right.

I'm going full right.

[C]

Have you ever thought about doing stand up?

[A]

I have. I. I did, like, five minutes. Introducing Stu Finer.

[C]

I was.

[A]

I guess I was the host of that night where I would introduce the different guests that came up to do a night with Stu. You were good at the Laugh Factory. It was. It was tough. It's not easy to do.

[C]

Seems terrifying.

[A]

It does. It really does. And. And getting up on stage and, like, just looking out at the crowd when they all get silent right off the bat and you've got all the eyes looking at you like, entertain me. Dance.

[B]

It's.

[A]

It's a lot of pressure.

[B]

Like, we.

[A]

We do podcasts that go out to a shitload of people, and there's a lot of people listening to right now, but I'm not looking y' all in the eye, and you're not just looking at me being like, make me laugh, bozo.

[B]

I forget that people listen to this until I say something that draws people's Ireland.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And then other people text me because I don't see anything on social media. Other people text me that people are mad. And I'm like, that's great.

[A]

Yeah. Listen, they don't boo nobodies, right?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

So, Big T, could you do stand up? How many Minutes. Could you give us.

[B]

No, I don't think so.

[C]

I don't know, bro. You have a delivery that would lend it.

[B]

I've actually, I've found myself like, I'll make a joke and then I kind of think through it. I'm like, I think I kind of could probably make like a two or three minute stand up bit out of that. I just could never like get up there and do it.

[C]

I think you could.

[B]

I. I don't like when we've done the, the few live shows we've done, like being in front of a couple hundred people is way more nerve wracking than this.

[A]

At least we can look each other in the eye, right.

[B]

Because it's just us sitting here talking.

[A]

We're doing our show. It's. Yeah, it's a different. It's a different feel entirely.

[B]

And especially when like even those are just doing basically the same thing we're doing now. If you're getting up there and people are expecting to laugh at the things you say and you get up there and nobody's laughing, I mean, you're just. You're on an island.

[C]

It's a weird thing because I'm terrified of stand up and have no real desire to do it. But I love emcee. Yeah, I love emcee. I love getting the little side jokes in. I love hosting a gala.

[A]

There's less pressure because you get up there and it's. Worst case scenario. You can just keep the show moving.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

And you don't always have to. Or you can just bust somebody's balls and be like, okay, here's the next person. Here's a joke about them.

[C]

Probably the most nervous I've ever been. Shout out to my old Dungeons and Dragons podcast, the Night Shift. We did a live session in front of a room at Birmingham Comic Con, which there were probably like 20 people there. But Dungeons and Dragons is a very improv heavy sort of vulnerable.

Activity, especially new live, but end up being a ton of fun. A lot of crowd work. They got involved, suggested things. Roll with it. Big T, when are you gonna play D with me?

[B]

I've never, never played.

[C]

That's what I'm saying.

[B]

How. How easy is it to pick up?

[C]

So that's the best part about Dungeons and Dragons, is you could play this second.

[B]

Really?

[C]

Yeah. Because a good DM takes care of all the rules for you. You just.

[B]

Dragon master, Dungeon master.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

You just, you just pretend to be your character and say what you want to do. And then if I'm the dm, I'm like, okay, roll.

[B]

You watch Stranger Things?

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

That's about the extent of my affiliation.

[C]

So I think Stranger Things Season 1 is really a fantastic creation and.

Made me nostalgic for a time that I never lived in, which I always thought was, like, impressive.

[A]

Oh, yeah.

[B]

The.

[A]

The, like.

[C]

Yeah. Like late 70s, early 80s, the DND boom.

[A]

Like, but because you kind of, you, you recognize some of the technology that they have.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, I, that. That overlapped with me, so I get it.

[C]

Well, and, and you know, I did grow up on Spielberg movies, so, like, it's, it's pulling those nostalgic strings as well. It's got great music.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

This most recent season of Stranger Things that just dropped. I'm watching because I feel like I have to finish the story and I thought it was all right, but, like, I remember watching like a 20 minute YouTube recap to catch back up on where we're at. It's fucking insane.

[B]

No, it's ridiculous.

[C]

What the is happening.

[B]

This show started in what, 16.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Obama was president.

[A]

You remember. You remember having to get caught up on like, Game of Thrones and how long the recaps would be for a new season would come out. Dude, it'd be like a 30 minute recap to get you up to. So you'd have to watch an entire episode.

[C]

But, but like, at least with Game of Thrones, there's so many characters, so many houses, we're involving an entire country worth of drama. This, this has happened to a core group of like 10 people. It's like, oh, yeah, remember when Hopper spent like multiple months in a Russian prison and then.

[A]

Right.

[C]

Battled monsters. Oh, but then the Russians were actually under the local mall. And then he blew up. But he wasn't.

[B]

My biggest complaint with this most recent season was I. I could never tell where people physically were. Like, so this group is in the. Upside down at the. The lab. But then this group is in the lab in the regular world and they're here. And I, I literally, I couldn't keep up with where people were.

[C]

I would say my biggest problem with it is that they're. They. They tried to make me feel emotions a lot of times, and I was like, I don't think I actually care about these people as much as you think I do. From an emotional standpoint point at least.

[B]

They keep hyping up the ending. Like, it's gonna be unbelievable.

[C]

Like, of this recent batch.

[B]

No, the, the one that comes out.

[C]

I mean, there's enough cool elements at play where, like, I, I'm like, okay. I mean, I want to see the end of this.

[B]

Even, like the. The massive twist. I wasn't that overcome by.

[C]

No, no. Yeah.

[B]

I mean, and they acted like that was gonna be.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Crazy.

[A]

We're gonna dive into predictive markets in a second. They're brought to you by Quints. Cold mornings, holiday plans. That's when I need my wardrobe to just work. Stuff that looks sharp, feels good, stuff I'll actually reach for. So I go with Quince. Plus, it makes gifting easy. When everything's worth keeping for yourself, Quince is what you need. They've got Mongolian cashmere sweaters and they are super comfortable. At quints, you can pick one up for $50. You'd normally drop 200 bucks or more on the exact same thing. Plus wool coats that actually hold up, up to daily wear. They still look good. Their denim fits right. It feels great. Same with their pants and chinos. The outerwear is solid. You got down jackets. Wool leather coats keep you warm when it's actually cold outside. They've also got cashmere beanies, scarves, and gloves that won't wreck your wallet. Get your wardrobe sorted, get your gift list handled with Quint's. Don't wait. I've got several items from Quint's. Maybe the most polo shirt or the most comfortable polo shirt I've ever worn is from Quince. I got some of their pants, some of their chinos. I got one of their sweatshirts. Super comfortable stuff and stuff that looks good to go to quince.com dose get free shipping on your order. Get 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Q U I n c e.com dose free shipping 365 day returns quince.com/dose and the predictive markets are also brought to you by BetterHelp. The show is sponsored by BetterHelp. The holidays are a time of tradition. Some people have many in their family, while some have none. Some are just beginning their own. Now is the time to reflect on what they mean to you or to rewrite those traditions and make your own. Like perfecting a new hot chocolate recipe with the kids or continuing your great aunt sweet potato pie. Incorporating therapy into your new or existing traditions can help ensure you take time for yourself during what can be a very joyful, but sometimes hectic, sometimes lonely time of time of the year. BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short questionnaire helps identify your needs and your preferences. Our 12 plus years of experience and industry leading Match fulfillment rate means we typically get it right the first time. If you're not happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time. From our tailored recommendations this December, start a new tradition by taking care of you. Our listeners get 10 off betterhelp.com dose that's better. H E L p.com dose what if you could, what if you could bet on what's going to happen in the new season?

[B]

You probably can't go to Poly Market, right?

[A]

So yeah, T Bob, we're going to talk a little bit about the predictive markets. I don't know if you ever dabble in them or not.

[C]

I, I have not dabbled myself in them. I'm not much of a gambler, which this company know. It happens me.

[A]

Yeah. I mean you don't, don't. The worst thing is like when people aren't gamblers and they pretend that they bet on sports because they're like, oh, I'm at, I'm at barstool. So I guess I got to talk about betting on stuff. I mean if you're not, then, then, then don't because like, you know, be yourself.

[C]

Yeah, I gamble on college football because I like to, but I do like $10 bets. Like, I don't, I don't take big swings. I don't do anything crazy. I.

I.

I think that predictive markets.

I don't know, I mean it's, they, they just seem rife for exploitation and, and, and shenanigans.

[A]

I think, I think they are. So we, we did a little bit of research on them and I, a lot of people out there that's, that are listening to this podcast. The podcast in general are probably very familiar with the predictive markets. If it's Kalshi, if it's polymarket, and I don't disclaimer, I believe DraftKings is potentially getting into the predictive market futures.

I think FanDuel is as well. And Robinhood has just announced something where they're, I don't think they're doing it for themselves, but they're using one of the other predict predictive markets to like give them the odds. So they're expanding a lot and you didn't really hear about them too much until very recently. Recently. And they, they started a few years ago but then they got banned. So the, they're, they're regulated by the cftc, not the sec, the sec Security Exchange Commission. They regulate stocks for the most part. Yeah, like trading and the cftc, they regulate futures. So if you're like betting on the price of orange juice concentrate to go down, then that would be regulated by the CFTC instead of the sec and they have different rules with them. You can trade based on non public information. If you've got an edge. If you know that there's an outbreak of bro Celosious taking place in Oklahoma, you can bet on the, the price of beef to go up because the cattle supply will go down.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

You know, like if you have inside information you can do that. Or if you're a rancher.

[C]

Well, but will you get in trouble for that or. No, TC can't.

[A]

If you're a farmer and you, you hedge, it's, they're designed to like hedge for people that are in those types of industries. So if you're a farmer and you know that it's going to be a very good year for, or you think it's going to be a very good year for crops, but there's always something that could come up, then you can bet kind of against yourself to hedge a little bit.

[C]

The thing is, in the age of predictive markets, in crypto.

I think everybody, you just really have to. And it sucks because it's generally, you know, the people who can't afford to lose, who lose. But you just have to accept that there's not going to be any regulation and you're doing this all at your own risk.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

Because like, I mean we talked about it maybe last time I was on here that crypto. What was it with like Trump tweeting out the tariffs and there was like one account that in like 10 minutes made like, like, yeah, $100 million, you know, hundreds, millions. They clearly had inside info.

[A]

With the futures and predictive markets. You're, you're allowed to do it if, like, if you gain information through your business or through your connections or whatever, you're allowed to trade on these types of things. What you're not allowed to do, you can't commit fraud, you can't manipulate the market.

[C]

So like by cornering it or something.

[A]

Well, you can't manipulate it by like, like if you are.

Let'S just say, I don't know, you can bet on anything. So if I'm Elon Musk and they have a market that's up there that says how many times will Elon tweet today? Which is actually something that you can bet on. Elon can't tweet saying, I'm only going to tweet three times a day. Congratulations to everybody that has bet on me. To do that and then trade against that. Buy it when he could tweet that.

[C]

But he can't trade.

[A]

He could tweet that, then the market would shift, and then everybody that's betting on Elon Musk to Tweet Fewer than 10 times that day, the price would go.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Way up for that future. And then Elon could buy it at. Buy against it and say still he will Tweet less than 10 times a day. Or. Sorry, sorry. And say he could buy a future saying he will tweet more that day after the price for that market went down because of his previous tweet.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Am I explaining this right?

[C]

Yeah. No, no, no.

[A]

And then. And then he could proceed to tweet 50 times that day and make all the money after the market dipped when he said, I'm only gonna.

[C]

Yes. He can't be involved in it. Since he has direct control over the market. He can't be involved in it. He can't.

[A]

He. I think you can be involved in it, but you can't manipulate the price of it beforehand. So I guess what I'm saying is, if he were to tweet out. I'm only tweeting three times a day, then all the people that had. Had bought the fact that he will Tweet less than 10 times that day.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

For that goes way up. Yeah.

[C]

They got value.

[A]

But the price for the other side of that goes way down. Then at that point, he could buy the side that went down and then tweet and then proceed to go back and tweet more and then make all of his money based on the manipulated price for that future.

[C]

So this actually ties into a great book that I was reading about the creation of Chicago.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Which is called Nature's Metropolis. And apparently the grain elevator was a massive deal for Chicago when combined with the railway of, like, making it the hub of all of all, like, U.S. grain supplies and whatnot. And I don't know if this was the first futures market, but I think it was one of them, but I couldn't fully wrap my head around it. But, like.

One of the first, if not the first true futures market was with grain prices in Chicago, where people were putting shorts or going long on it.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

And then people would, like, buy up supply and try to corner the market to manipulate it, but then you could get stuck holding all that supply.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

Y. It's. So. It's just that now. Now, now, now. That is everything.

[A]

It's everything. And also the supply is just, like, out there in the ether you don't actually have to have like a warehouse free supply.

[C]

It's actually nothing.

[A]

And so right now the rules that are in place are each market has their own responsibility to enforce these rules. So the rules that, that say that you can't manipulate the market, you can't commit fraud with it, you can't if you're trading because you got the information through illegal means, that's one of the rules. You're not allowed to do that. But every marketplace establishes and enforces their own rules to maintain.

[C]

It's just everything is gambling.

[A]

So like Kalshi and Poly Market they are in charge of establishing the rules for themselves and enforcing the rules for themselves. And right now the CFTC which is the group that's in charge of, of everything like that, they see.

The predictive markets as being a very important player in the future. So they are kind of doing a hands off approach to it and saying I want you to grow, go out there and innovate, develop, expand as much as you want. So there's like very little, there's very limited oversight about the futures markets right now.

[C]

I can't help but feel this just ties into all the dark capitalism that we were playing with.

[B]

I just still can't except that this is legal. Like we mentioned Stranger Things so I googled it. I'm on right now who will die in Stranger Things Season 5. And like you can buy Steve Harrington. If he dies I will be upset for 25 cents. So if I bet 25 on Steve Harrington to die I would get 100.

[A]

Yeah. If he dies. Yeah.

[C]

This just can't be like that's a known answer. Like somebody like a lot of people out there know the answer.

[A]

So it also include like you're limited how much you can, you can bet on this and you, they don't like you using the B word. Yeah, you can't do that predicting but online if you look at what Kalsi and Polymarket are talking about through their social media accounts they use the word bet. I mean they're not supposed to but.

[C]

Have you ever looked into like the, there's so many different forms of gambling like the, the csgo like skin gambling like, like, like gun skins and stuff. Like yeah. Apparently they've managed to create entire counter strike casinos that you know are not age restricted and all this sort of stuff. There's. I was watching a YouTube video that got about the guys that started started Stake.com and their first website was just like you bet where a random number generator was going to end between 1 and 100. And like the day after they launched it, they were doing like millions.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

In. In trade volume.

[B]

That actually sounds really fun.

[C]

And then they, and then there's like Will.

[A]

Will Memes guess the lottery number.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

In before the end of the year.

[B]

Like could y' all put that on here? Like how are these.

[A]

You could. Somebody could put that on there? There. I, I just, I looked up yesterday when I was doing some research to see if there were any barstool related things that were on there. The only one I could find that's tradable right now is will Dave Portnoy give a pizza review 9.0 or above before the end of the year. That's information that if we really. I could probably find out when he got the 9.0 and I could trade on that there. The larger the market gets, the more likely it is that there's somebody that's on the inside that will have information. So with Stranger Things, I assume that a lot of people are betting or a decent amount are betting on Stranger Things. So if you're like a producer of that show and you know the information, I don't know what the market is for that. My guess is it's probably you could put anywhere between five thousand and a hundred thousand dollars on it and make money off that. Pretty big difference. Well, it's a. Yeah, it's pretty big difference. But it.

[B]

This says there's a volume of $80,000. That means 80 grand has been placed on this.

[A]

Okay. So yeah, probably you could maybe bet, I don't know, four figures on it.

[C]

This just all feels like ways of.

Transferring wealth from poor people to rich people who already have the information.

[A]

Right. So my bad. We were both extending our legs underneath the table. Yeah. No, you're right. Like the bigger the market gets, the more likely that there's going to be somebody who's already very powerful that knows the answer to that question.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That can. Then if they wanted to, they could make a shitload of money off trading on that.

[C]

Which we see in the crypto space all the time.

[A]

Yes.

[C]

I mean that's everything that crypto is.

[A]

Yeah. Like if you're betting on who the next, next nominee for president would be or this was like a big thing for Polymarket was betting on the outcome of the 2024 election. And the idea behind it, according to their CEO, was that the ultimate test of.

What people truly believe is what they're willing to spend their money on. So like if you're getting, you know, polling Data might be wrong, but if there's a lot of people out there that are willing to put up money on a certain candidate winning than the chance of that candidate winning, probably more likely that they will. And the markets were right about that. They did bet. They started swinging towards Trump pretty heavy, and I want to say, like October of 2024. So in theory, it's a very like, free market capitalist way to see the world where it's, you know, relying on people's money to determine what's going to happen or to predict what's going to happen as most likely result. But you can also run into situations where people could spend a lot of money to manipulate what they want people to think will happen or to, to get their name. This is probably not going to happen with the President, but I don't know, it might. If you're running for office and you're a little bit behind the polls and you can, you've got some money that you've raised. If you spend a couple million dollars, you create belief gambling on Polymarket, you get a, a 7% bump in the poly market results, and then everybody's like, whoa. I mean, are they going to do it? And then that side gets more enthusiasm, more momentum.

[B]

You know about the French whale for Trump, right?

[A]

Yes.

[B]

The guy who on Polymarket made like, I think, $80 million.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Betting on Trump to win.

[A]

How much did that guy invest? Again?

[B]

I'm not sure. They recently just did a 60 Minutes thing on all these prediction markets, and they talked about him a bunch. I'll see if I can find how much he bet. But he, you know what he did? He did neighbor polling, which is he asked people, who do you think your neighbors going to vote for? And they all said Trump. Because if you ask people, who are you going to vote for? It was pretty split.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Maybe even a little bit favoring Kamala. But if you ask people, who do you think your neighbor's going to vote for? They all said Trump. And so he was like, people just aren't saying that they're voting for Trump again.

[A]

Interesting. So, yeah, in 2024, poly market users bet 3.6 billion on the presidential race. Kalshee took in over 500 million.

And, yeah, the highest.

I guess the highest limit, the highest interest bets that you can put down. It's like 10 to 20 million dollars. Excuse me, 10 to 20 million dollars on each question is like, what, what they're drawing in for, but you can bet on, on pretty much anything. There was also, when I looked up barstool on. I forget. It was Poly Marketer Cash. Kelsey. The other one that popped up was the Internet Invitational. Who wins the Internet Invitational? But that was an expired.

[C]

Which, like, we all knew the answer.

[A]

To ahead of time, right? I knew the answer, like, the day that it happened. And in theory, I could have gone in there and I could have done. Have put a lot of money on the winning team and probably made a shitload of money.

[C]

Could have done it through a proxy.

[A]

Right. But I don't think that it would even be against the rules if I had done it. I think it would have been perfectly legal for me.

[C]

That's why I'm saying, guys, if you engage in this gamble at your own risk, you are likely coming at a.

[B]

Significant disadvantage within your means as a form of entertainment. Would that have been against the rules or illegal or neither?

[A]

It might have been against the rules of the Internet Invitational to do it, but it would not have been against the law to do it. It would be information that I received.

Based on being a part of the tournament and finding out who won.

[B]

Like, I kind of do want to bet on Stranger Things now. I just don't know it like this. We're sure this is legal?

[A]

Yeah, it's legal.

[C]

Yeah, it's legal for you. You don't know shit.

[B]

No, I don't. I just think, like, how the producer.

[A]

Is allowed to bet on that. The producer of Stranger Things is really allowed to.

[C]

Crazy.

[A]

Oh, excuse me. Not bad to predict. To predict.

[B]

Like, similarly to how last night I watched Florida and Yukon, a game that I wouldn't have a ton of investment in otherwise. And I had a bet on Yukon and they won. And so it was more entertaining to watch. It would be entertaining to watch Stranger Things.

[C]

It would be fun.

[B]

If Steve dies, I win a hundred dollars.

[C]

Yeah, I kind of get it now, dude.

[A]

I mean, there. There would be shows if you.

[C]

I got a roll.

[A]

You gotta run. Okay.

[C]

My baddie, boys. I gotta go do roughness here in a minute.

[A]

Okay.

[C]

Thank you for having me, though. Thanks.

[A]

Sorry.

[C]

My means. I was like. That was super fun, though, guys.

[A]

No, you're good.

[C]

I love every macrodosing episode the best. Thank you, Mac. Thank you, Mad. Thank you, guys.

[A]

We'll see you tomorrow morning.

[C]

Yeah, see you on WUB tomorrow morning. What?

[B]

I love w. I just don't love the. The 6:00am it's early.

[A]

Yeah. Big T. To that point. Yeah, you can. There will be shows. If this predictive market thing continues on and continues to grow, there will be shows that are kind of designed for people to bet on. Think about that.

[B]

Yeah. Meline is raising her hand.

[D]

So I understand that, like when I. If I inside trade with the stock market, I can get arrested for that.

[A]

Yep.

[D]

I cannot get arrested.

[B]

Unless you're doing Congress.

[A]

Good point, Big T. Mad Dog, Good question. You cannot get arrested as long as you don't engage in market manipulation, which.

[D]

Like the Elon Musk.

[A]

The Elon Musk situation, I guess. Yeah. Like if you found out that Memes did get, let's say, will Memes get the lottery ball. But on part of my take before the end of 2026, let's say that was something that you could speculate on on Polymarket and you found out that he did get the lottery ball the day before the show came out. So you had inside information you could definitely be allowed to put your money on. Yes, he will. I don't know what the size of that wager is or prediction could be. My guess is it wouldn't be very big. So let's say you put $200 on it and you said, yes, he will get it at 20%. Then when the show comes out and the.

Prediction is closed because he does get the lottery ball, then you would end up making five times your money. So you would get what I say. You put down 200. I say 250 or 200.

[D]

250.

[A]

Okay, 250. Then you would. You would walk away with 1250 because of that. And that would be completely legal to do. Now, if you found out that he got the lottery ball. Correct. And you posted on social media.

Memes is never going to get the lottery ball. I just found out he didn't do.

[D]

It Again, that's market mistake.

[A]

Then the price of memes getting the lottery ball in the future would dip down a little bit because they're confirmed on this show via Mad Dog, he did not get it. So then you could then buy it at a lower price, meaning your profit would be bigger when the show comes out and it turns out that he does get it. That would technically be against the rules, but it would be what are the rule like, it would be up to Polymarket to enforce that rule of market manipulation on you, which they're not doing.

[C]

Right.

[A]

So would I. I shouldn't say they're not doing it. I should say, which I don't think they have a big incentive to enforce. They might have a. They probably do have an entire part of their company that's dedicated to like making sure that there are rules and. But they're they're not front. It's not very, it doesn't seem to be very important to the business model now.

[D]

Now is it not considered inside trading just because it's not like a government or I guess the stock market's not government. Why is it not considered inside trading?

[A]

I'm not really sure where they.

[D]

Because it's predict.

[A]

Yeah, you're predicting.

[D]

But isn't the stock market also a predictive market?

[A]

I think the stock market plays out as a predictive market. But in theory the stock market is about generating revenue for shareholders. And am I optimizing business performance? So there's something that you're, you're investing money into, you're investing in, in the success of a company. And then if that company does well, then other people will want to invest in that company at a higher rate. So then you can then sell your shares. That's what you're doing with the stock market with this. It's just about speculating on a made up result or a made up thing that could happen.

[B]

So it seems the way they spin it is they allow insider information because the point is to aggregate all available information into accurate probabilities. So they're saying if someone knows who dies in Stranger Things and that is, will now be reflected in our market, that's giving people more accurate information.

[A]

More accurate information about the future. Yeah, yeah. So they're actually providing a public, a public service. That's what they're saying.

[B]

But there are people who are able to profit off that.

[A]

Yeah, that's a coincidence that they're able to profit off it. It's more about education. Yeah. So it.

Am I explaining the difference between like a stock correctly? Because I think with the stock market, it's not just the way that it's set up is not just about putting money in. Oh, I was right. The company did good. I'll take my money out. With the stock market, it's supposed to be about giving money to a company to help them expand and do better at their business because you believe in that company. And then when you happen to be right about that, you're able to sell your shares of that company at a higher price than when you invested in it. That's. You're almost like you're, you're part of their success because you put money into it with this. It's just like, I bet that's going to happen. I was right. Cool. I made money.

[B]

All right.

[D]

I still, I, it does.

[A]

Everybody has the same reaction too, when they first hear about them. They're like, how is this. This seems like it could be very easily rigged.

[D]

Now can I also ask. And this. These might be dumb questions. I just don't know.

In my head. I obviously understand insider trading is bad and don't do insider trading. I understand.

If you're gonna inside trade on Kalshee or manipulate whatever inside trade.

[A]

Quote unquote, if you're gonna break one of the rules. Is that what you're saying?

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay.

[D]

Isn't it almost more.

Like morally corrupt? Maybe not like it feels just as morally corrupt or like governmentally corrupt to quote unquote, insider trade with predictive markets that you don't con or.

[A]

Because there's a hard and fast yes or no to everything. And if you know the. I, I'm saying, I, I agree with you that, like, if you know the result 100.

Then.

[D]

Then it's bad.

[A]

Then it doesn't seem like it should be fair to have the public then also trading against somebody that has the inside information about it.

[D]

It.

[A]

Which you're not wrong about. You're not wrong about that at all.

[D]

So, like, it is, it's. But I guess it's not trading because you're not trading stocks.

[B]

You're.

[D]

It's insider gambling.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Yeah. Manipulation.

[A]

Yeah. You like, you can do real life point shaving for whatever it is that you're. Whatever your line of business is.

[D]

Right?

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

So I guess it's not technically insider trading. It would be kind of an insider difference.

[A]

Yeah. Some people are going to know the answer to a lot of these questions and the public will not. And it's. But it's legal. That's, that's the only difference is it's legal. And I think you're, you're probably right to be asking why is it legal here and it's not legal for stocks? I think that's a very fair question to ask they all. So you also can't make a false statement to manipulate the market out there. So if, you know, if you're a producer on the Internet Invitational and you see that prices of.

Francis winning the tournament have gone sky high, you cannot make a statement saying, I just found out that Francis loses.

To manipulate that. That price. You can't, you can't make a false statement. That's against the rules too. But I don't know who's going to enforce that rule because I don't see a lot of enforcement right now. It's very like, it is the wild West. We're living in the wild west right now. When it comes to those markets. And. But the government thinks that it could be a good source of business in the future, a growing economy. And all the numbers are saying that, yes, the, the predictive markets are expected to grow a whole lot. So it used to be against the rules to have these predictive markets. So Poly Market got shut down when they first started. They got shut down in 2022 and then they won a couple court cases and it really got open. Excuse me, opened back up. And I believe 2024, maybe early 2024. And now I think Don Jr. Is advising. He's an advisor for both Kalshi and Polymarket.

[D]

Yeah. And he had that interview where they were asking him how much he makes from this.

Or the founders of Kalsheet or Polymarket. One of the two were asked about Donald Trump Jr. Being an advisor and they were like, how much are you paying him? And they wouldn't answer. And they were like, doesn't he have a lot of inside information that he can use?

[A]

Yeah. And in this case, like, yes, it does. It seems pretty corrupt. I also see if you're Kalsh or Polymarket, the market is so new and the technology is so new that you do need somebody that is kind of involved on the inside to have any sort of insight as to what the government is going to do when it comes to your companies. Because there's really no, we're writing this all from scratch. So that would be a great person for them to hire. It does seem like it's very corrupt to have somebody so close to the administration being also a paid advisor. Peter Thiel is also a big investor in Poly Market. Also another guy that's, that's on the inside probably crafting a lot of the potential regulations around what Poly Market would be.

There. They got re established in the U.S. i think it was early 2024, might have been late 2023, where the government said, okay, you are now allowed to trade on these predictive futures. And.

That'S where you saw the big increase come in the election. That's when it became a thing like Polymarket. Kalshee became established brands leading up to the election. They're still growing. They're expected to get much, much, much, much, much bigger. I think just between October and November of this year, 2025, both those companies saw increases of between 20 and 40% in trading. So it was their biggest month ever. Ever was November. And a big reason behind that is that now they're both offering odds on professional and collegiate sports so you can put in bets Just like you would on a sports book.

[B]

So I know a guy who has shifted entirely to sports betting on these platforms.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. They don't have props, they don't have. I don't think you can do parlays on them either.

[B]

I'm not sure, I've never done it.

[A]

But if you, if you live in Texas or California or a state that does not have sports gambling on mobile devices, then they're going to be using polymarket or Kalsheet to put in bets on the game. Yeah. Which seems like, it seems very out of scope for what those two companies do when it comes to who regulates. So they're, they're operating sportsbooks on those two platforms.

Outside of the regulatory establishments that govern sports books.

Does that make sense?

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So yeah, they're getting bigger, they're going to keep growing. There's people that speculate that they could end up being, you know, pretty much unicorn companies that skyrocket and take off in the future. I do see there, there's probably a lot of, I see some no brainer downsides to being able to gamble on everything, to be able to bet on everything. One is that you're going up against people that most of the times will have an answer to the question will be on the inside and they'll be able to make money off it is one. And I just, it's also not super healthy to be able to bet on all this stuff. If you see that as being like a job that you have where now my job is. I happen to be very good at, at betting on the future. A lot of people are like, well I don't have to develop a skill. I don't see where I fit into the job market. I'm just going to gamble on cowshi all day and just predict stuff all day long against potentially well against some things that can very easily be rigged against you because you don't have the inside information. It seems like there's a big downside to this.

[B]

So I'm looking right now the top one on trending was what will Jerome Powell say during his December press conference, the head of the Federal Reserve serve. And it's live on the website right now and you can. So I guess he's already said inflation 50 times because it's at a hundred percent but you can bet on if he will say inflation 10 more times for a total of 60.

[A]

So yeah, you know how like athletes always post their DMS after a game where they maybe don't hit the over in points? Yeah, like now people are going to be Jerome Powell pissed at Jerome Powell. Why'd you say inflation nine more times?

[B]

Dude, you can bet on if he'll say the word again ten times.

[A]

Yeah. So everyone's going to be.

[B]

Good afternoon.

[A]

Yeah, Everyone who's listed on.

[B]

How is this legal?

[A]

That's a. This is a great question, Big T. This is a great. Because it exists in a world where it's not regulated by the sec, where it's regulated by the futures trading. And I think most people can probably agree there's a big, big difference in betting whether the. The price of soybeans will go up or down next year, depending on the growing season and the weather. And then also being able to bet on whether or not Dave Portnoy will give a 9.0 pizza review.

[B]

And so right next to Jerome Powell, here's the Real Madrid man City game that just started.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And you can. Oh, so they do. I thought it was just like Moneyline they had on here, but they have totals and spread and.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Mad Dog, I have one more.

[A]

I like how Mad Dog's raising her hand now.

[D]

I don't want to interrupt.

You know how for like some morally irrehensible. Whatever that word is.

[B]

Reprehensible.

[D]

Reprehensible companies. Thank you. Like the palantirs of the world, they try to kind of make it like we're saving the world because we're helping the military.

What's the hook here of this isn't going to ruin the minds of young Americans.

[A]

Okay, so Big T touched on it earlier, but they're getting very philosophical with it, which is what they tend to do when it comes time to prove that they're not being evil. So they're saying that it's good for society because if you have these predictive markets. Markets, you get a better understanding of what the future might look like because the markets will end up being correct in the long term.

Wait, so, okay, I'll give you a hypothesis. It's not a hypothetical. It's one that's actually listed right now. Will Taylor Swift announced that she is pregnant in 2025? You can, you can bet on that. Looks like the trading volume is $1.8 million. Is the amount that's been bet on it thus far right now 2% chance that she is correct or that. That she is pregnant. So you could look at this and just know, okay, Taylor Swift's probably not going to announce that she's pregnant this year. And they say that there's some value in looking at the markets. And knowing what might happen in the future.

[D]

Future.

[A]

There's value in knowing that she probably won't be pregnant. If you're a person out there that is like, I really. I'm just so curious if Taylor's gonna be pregnant. Let me check. Oh, 2%.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

She's not.

[B]

That's.

[A]

That's peace of mind.

[D]

I don't. That doesn't make sense in my brain.

[A]

That's a fair point. That's a great counterpoint. But that's. That's kind of how they're explaining it.

[D]

I just don't understand how.

Predicting the future, like you saying, oh, Taylor Swift isn't gonna announce she's pregnant this year, because on Kelsey it says there's a 2% chance.

[A]

It's also educational. And they could say an experiment in figuring out whether or not the markets will actually be able to predict the future. So if they look at all this data and they're like, yeah, you know what the markets know? They always know for all these things. And they think that would be a valuable piece of information to know that people betting on future occurrences and who's, you know, where the money's at. That. That is actually a useful tool for speculating on what's about to happen in the world. It doesn't make a lot of sense. I agree.

[B]

I was gonna say.

[D]

I just don't think. I. I'm not seeing that. But because it's gonna either happen. Event either is or is not going to happen, you knowing three weeks prior or whatever. I don't see how that is changing. It's not changing the outcome.

[A]

Right. They just don't want to say this should be legal because it's fun. That's what. What they would really like to say is this should be legal because the government should not regulate things. And it's fun and people can make money on it, and it's a cool thing to do. That's. If you were to give them truth serum. I think that the people that ran these companies would say that it should be legal because the government has no business telling us that it's not legal.

But they have to come up with these other reasons about education and things like that in order to make it seem like it's a good thing overall. So the very first predictive market was in fact an educational market. It was the University of Iowa. So they came up with this thing called the Iowa Electronic Markets. And they started in 1988. And in 1992, the Iowa Political Stock Market was. They had their name changed to the iem, the Iowa Electronic Market, and they opened up trading to anybody in the world. And the minimum trade was $5. And the CFTC, which is the body that regulates all these futures trading, they gave the University of Iowa an exemption because they were mainly run for research purposes. So they were not taking in lots of money. They were doing it just to see how accurate it would be when it came to predicting who was going to win elections in Iowa. And the IAM was used to forecast the results of presidential elections with greater accuracy than the opinion polls. And they ran two different types of markets. There was the vote share market, which predicts the candidate's final vote shares. And then there was the winner takes all market, who predicted that, predicted who's going to win the majority of votes in the country. And it's beaten the polls consistently.

And it's also been used in Congress and international races. But it was not seen as being like a money making market. It was mostly just like, who can predict this the best? And it's a small amount of money that you're contributing. And I think there's probably more that has more to do with like research purposes than what we're seeing right now. But they're using the same justification for betting on if Taylor Swift will announce announce that she's pregnant as they did to try to figure out who's going to win the presidential election. Just as an experiment to see.

[B]

So as we've been sitting here, I tried to place $10 on Mr. Beast to be the 2026 Democratic nominee for president.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

And in doing so, I received a message that says you appear to be located in the United States, France or another. Restricted jurisdiction trading is not available to US Persons. Persons located in the United States, France or person person's location. Restricted jurisdictions use the measures circumvent or attempt to circumvent, blah, blah, blah. So can you not do this, at least for political.

[A]

I think you might, you might have to convert your money into a different type of asset.

[B]

Why? And even put any money in yet? Oh, I, I just, I just signed in.

[A]

Yeah, I don't know what's going on.

[B]

Because I'm interested in. I think there's good juice here on Mr. Beast.

[A]

What's the price for him?

[B]

0.6 cents. So $10.80 wins you $1,800. But it, when you go to do it, it says unavailable. Now let me try. If I do like Jerome Powell, is that restricted unavailable?

Is everything unavailable?

[A]

I'm guessing you might have to use a vpn I don't know what's going on, but then.

[B]

But I'm getting unavailable on everything.

[A]

I'm not sure what. I've never used polymarket to put in any futures.

[B]

Me neither.

[A]

There was a guy named just recently, a couple days ago. Did we talk about this on this show, Alpha Raccoon. Is that why we started talking about predictive markets? I don't recall a guy who goes by Alpha Raccoon. And he made over a million bucks because he put very accurate bets on Google, Google's 2025 Year in Search rankings.

So he predicted 22 out of 23 of their, like, best of searches or their top searches.

Which led people to say, okay, this guy clearly has inside information at Google.

But yeah, I don't know.

What about Kelsey? Do they have that on Kelsey.

For Mr. Beast?

[B]

Let's see. So here's the what will pal say during his December press conference? Also on Kalshi, sign up to trade. I'm gonna go to jail.

[A]

See, I'm not. I'm not sure why you're getting that right now.

[B]

I don't know. But Kyle, she just told me before I saw it that Real Madrid scored, so that's great.

Okay, so if I want to buy Man City to win this game now, down 1 nil.

For $10.

It'S trying to let me. So is there some difference between Kalshee and Poly Market?

[A]

I think Poly Market, it might be limited to some sports events right now and everything else might be following. I'm not sure about all the court cases and the differences. I know that people in the United States are betting a lot of money on polymarket.

They just launched an app in the United States.

[B]

I would like to bet on Steve Harrington to die in Stranger Things. So if someone can tell me where I can do that safely and legally, I would appreciate it.

[A]

You want him to die?

[B]

No, I just. What? He. He seems like someone who might and I just want to have some skin in the game when the new season comes out.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

By the way, you want to. I've got a prediction for you. How about that? On a prediction show. Netflix is coming out with the final batch of episodes for Stranger Things on Christmas Day, which is the same day they have NFL football games that they've already had issues with managing the traffic. I think that's a potential nightmare scenario.

[A]

Yep, I would agree with that because.

[B]

The games are also at like 12 o', clock when everybody has run out of things to do on Christmas. You're just sitting there staring at each other. And everybody's going to turn on. The people who aren't watching football are going to be like, oh, stranger Things. We'll watch that.

[C]

Yep.

[A]

Hopefully we won't be able to watch the Commanders and the Cowboys.

[B]

That could be great for you.

[A]

That would be excellent for.

[C]

For me.

[A]

I hope that. That everyone watch Stranger Things on. On Christmas Day. Please spare yourselves.

[B]

Are they doing halftime shows for that?

[A]

I'm sure they will. Yeah. I think they might have announced. Did they announce who's doing them yet?

[D]

I believe so.

[A]

Who do we got? Last year we had Beyonce, right?

[D]

Yes.

[A]

And she was dressed up as a. As a cowboy. Yep.

[D]

Cowboy car.

[A]

And Max thought that it was anti Eagles bias that beyond he. He was not familiar with Cowboy Carter.

[D]

I'm seeing a lot of the NF or Thanksgiving ones. I have not. I have not run across those. I thought they did announce them, though.

[A]

Okay.

[D]

But I don't see it.

[A]

Yeah. So with the predictive markets, they specifically, kalshi went from 4.4 billion in October to 5.8 billion in November, and poly market went from 3.02 billion in October to 3.7 billion in November. So they are skyrocketing right now. And yeah, some projections have them growing to about 9.5. Or excuse me, by 2035, 10 years from now. There was a recent industry estimate that put them at $95.5 billion.

By 2035. So growing about 47% year over year is what people are anticipating with these markets. It does not seem healthy to me to have that many people betting on all these different hypothetical things that could happen. It doesn't seem healthy, does it?

[B]

And it's just like, not only stuff that could be easily manipulated, but just like the most inane, random stuff.

[A]

Yeah, you could bet on Ms. Rachel.

[B]

Are you serious?

[A]

No, I'm saying, like, hypothetically, you could. If. If the markets are growing that much, where it's. We're up to $95.5 billion wagered on things, you're gonna have crazy stuff. Like you're watching Ms. Rachel. Actually, watching Ms. Rachel with your kids would probably get a lot more exciting for parents. Like, parents would get really into. If you can bet on. On Bluey.

If you can bet on, like, kids programs, all of a sudden you spend way more time with your kids, but then you're getting pissed off because Ms. Rachel didn't. The letter of the day wasn't C.

[B]

I want you to know I'm. You can come look at my screen. I'm not joking. You can place a Wager on if Jesus Christ will return in 2025. Now here's my question. Who's paying that out after the Rapture? After.

[A]

That's a great point.

[B]

Like is. Is. Is that going to be at the top of people's minds? Like you hit this insane bet.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And then what you should. And now it's the tribulation.

[A]

You should. Even if you did get paid out the second that it happened, what are you spending the money on?

[B]

Right.

[A]

What are you going to do that money. How. What's it trading at now?

[B]

It's not give. Oh, here's order book. Four cents.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

So I guess 225 to 1.

[A]

Okay. That seems like all the money should be coming out on. No, on that for the reason you specifically said.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Because if you win the bet, you're not doing anything with the money. If you 100x your money, I guess it'd be 200. If you 200 times your money, what are you spending on if he does reveal himself? Absolutely nothing.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That you found a weakness in the market.

[B]

Big T.

I mean, should we just be.

Oh, it won't even let you. Oh, yeah, no, you can bet.

[A]

No, you can't bet. No. But my guess is it's very, very limited.

[B]

You can bet 99.60 to win 100 bucks.

[A]

Will somebody take that trade right now?

[B]

It seems like it.

[A]

Okay. There you go. So there you just made yourself.

[B]

That's not 40 cents.

[A]

It's not a bad return on investment.

[B]

I mean, if you do that at a large enough scale, which is when. I mean, we've only got, what, three weeks left.

[A]

And as these things scale up.

[B]

When.

[A]

You have more people trading on something like that, I would imagine actually that would probably still be one. That would be limited.

[B]

Yeah.

You're not. This can't be real. The volume ON that is $2.5 million.

[A]

That's how much people have traded on it.

[B]

That's what seems to be the case.

[A]

I don't understand. I don't understand why you. Anybody would ever bet. Yes. On that.

[B]

Is it just people betting a bunch of money on. No. Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay.

[A]

So you can see there has to be a market.

[B]

You can see other people's trades. Someone bet 68,000 shares of. No, I don't know when this was.

For $107,000.

[A]

That's crazy.

[B]

Or is that to make 107th to get back 107?

[A]

My guess is probably to get back 107.

[B]

I don't understand how all these numbers are orchestrated.

[A]

I also think some people are manipulating them for, just for screenshots. Like Antonio Brown, for sure. Where it's like, oh, look at this. I'm favored to be the New York Giants head coach.

I think it's going to be Marcus.

[B]

No, I don't think so.

[A]

I think there's a pretty big body of evidence on college coaches going to the NFL. That would be a big, big red flag. Also, if you're a college coach, why would you do that and potentially get.

[D]

Fired after two years if you're specifically Marcus?

[B]

Because he could come back and coach in college again and you don't have to recruit and.

[A]

But you're walking away from a lot of money at a good job.

[B]

He's getting a lot of money. Then if you get fired, you still get a lot of money. And then he could come back and coach in college again. And he's like 40.

[D]

He's got something approved though, now.

[A]

Yeah, good point, good point.

[B]

That's why he pissed off the wrong guy.

[A]

If there's anything we know about Marcus Freeman, he. If there's a chance for him to play in a college football game and coach a team, God God damn it, he's going to do it. Sorry. To Notre Dame. I shouldn't use that phrase.

[B]

Unless it's the Pop Tarts bowl, in which case he's not going.

[A]

Was it the team or was it the university?

[B]

Because it's unclear.

[A]

I've heard a lot of people online saying like, hey, listen, this was the team made this decision, not the university.

[B]

I hope for the senior's sake that is the case.

[D]

Yeah, I'd hope it was the team.

[A]

Yeah. Yeah.

[B]

Because I don't think there's been any.

[A]

Definitive report because the, the assumption has been that it was the university based on how the, the athletic director has been, you know, going on like a media blitz right now. And when people are saying, oh, it's, it's the team's fault, that takes away the argument of, well, what about like, don't you care about the, the players being able to play in one last football game? How good is that for them? How good is it to practice and to get some of the, the young guys experience in the game with.

[B]

I also think it's very short sighted to decline 15 additional practices, which is all the teams actually, actually care about. Nobody cares about the games.

[A]

Yep.

[B]

Like, that is true. Teams don't care about bowl games anymore, but they do care about getting 15 practices.

[A]

Yep. There is a body out there, the American Gaming Association. They represent casinos. They've got MGM, Caesars and FanDuel DraftKings Fanatics used to be members of the AGA. They resigned from the AGA because the American Gaming association is going on a marketing campaign against prediction markets.

And that has rubbed some the wrong way. Fan fanatics. They just launched their own prediction market platform as well in a partnership with crypto.com and I think the. The casinos are afraid of getting in trouble with the state gaming regulators in Nevada. And they do not like the prediction markets because they see it as a threat to their line of business. And when you see that, you can go on and see sports odds on there. I'd say that's probably a pretty accurate assessment that it might be a threat for them. So, yeah, that's where we're at right now. It does seem a little dystopian that you can bet on all. All this stuff, doesn't it?

[B]

Yeah, it's weird. I do have some important breaking news maybe to close the show, if you'd like to hear.

[A]

I would love to.

[B]

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has ordered all US diplomats to return to the use of Times New Roman. And official communications dismissing Biden's adoption of Calibri as a quote woke, leaning and wasteful diversity initiative unfit for American diplomacy.

[A]

Is that serious?

[B]

Dead serious.

[A]

Where are you seeing that?

[B]

All over. Just search Marco Rubio.

[A]

Is Calibri. Is it woke?

[B]

I guess so.

[A]

Oh, you know what it is? The serifs are kind of gay.

[B]

Oh, is it?

[A]

Probably, yeah. The serifs is. Wait, does Times New Roman have serifs?

[B]

I'm going to be totally honest with you. I know of the word seraph. I don't know what that is.

[A]

Is that is the little, like, edges that some of the letters have at the end.

[B]

Like the circular.

[A]

Yeah, the, like, ornamental things at the end. I don't think Times New Roman has or s. Sorry, why am I saying tariffs? Serifs.

[D]

No, you were saying serifs. You're good.

[A]

Okay. I just thought. I thought serifs.

[B]

The department under Blinken in early January 2023 had switched to Kolibri, a modern San serif font, saying this was a more accessible font for people with disabilities because it did not have the decorative angular features and was the default in Microsoft products.

[A]

Oh, so we're going back to serifs?

[B]

No, I think away from it.

[A]

Wait, I thought that you said that.

[B]

The old guy, the switch, Anthony Blinken, who was Biden's Secretary of State, he switched or whatever he was.

[A]

He switched to Calibri Correct.

[B]

A modern sand serif or san. Serif is no serif.

[A]

No serif. Yeah, yeah. San is French, Right. For no serifs.

[B]

So we're going back to them.

[A]

So, yeah. So turns out, plot twist serifs are straight.

[B]

A cable dated December 9 sent to all US diplomatic posts said that typography shapes the professionalism of an official document. And calibri is informal compared to serif typefaces.

[A]

Okay, our national nightmare is over.

[B]

Finally we got the professionalism back.

[A]

Is there any, any money saving that is associated with this?

[B]

I'm not seeing?

[A]

In fact, I think it would probably be maybe the opposite. Does it cost more money to print a serif?

I'm not sure on each word. All those fancy. You know, I got to talk to KB about this. I feel like KB is our number one.

[B]

Is he a font guy?

[A]

I think he's our number one font guy that we have here.

[D]

Yeah, I think Nick Torreni. I was going to say Nick. Nick might be too.

[A]

Oh, you think so?

[D]

It's Nick because he always has graphic design.

[A]

Okay, I'll get with Nick.

[D]

I would lock in on.

[A]

I'll get to the bottom of this with Nick. But good breaking news. Oh, also, Big T, I think we've talked about this before, about how we would like to have more transparency in NFL replays, the way that they do it in epl. This morning I do a radio hit with Pittsburgh Radio, DVE radio every other Wednesday, and this morning they had Gene Steritor in studio with them. So I got to talk to Gene for a second and I, I pitched that to him. I was like, why don't, why don't we have stuff like that in the NFL? And his response was, I think the NFL really values having a curtain there where you don't have to look behind it and see that there's like a 20 year old looking kid with a video game controller that is determining whether or not something's a catch in the NFL. You don't need to see how the sausage is made. He highly doubts that the NFL will be implementing that model.

[B]

Yeah, I'd be stunned.

[A]

Moving forward. Yeah. Okay, well, that's macrodosing for today and we will see you guys. Yeah, we're waiting.

[D]

We're filming our Christmas episode.

[A]

Yes.

[D]

Please send in.

Christmas related voicemails about.

Your favorite things.

[A]

Favorite things. So if it's something small.

[D]

Favorite gifts.

[A]

Yeah. If it's something small that you've used a lot of this year that isn't a widely known. I'll give an example last year I was really into frothing and so I gifted Aryan a frother last year. I know that like frothing is been a thing in the world for the last several hundred years, but something that's, you know, not everyone has one of these things or a small item that you have that you really use a lot that you like your favorite things. Tell us about those. We're gonna be asking people at Barstool what their favorite things are and we'll maybe learn something, maybe maybe figure out a new gadget or item that we would like to have in our lives before Monday. Before Monday.

[D]

Before Monday.

[A]

And what is that? Voicemail that they can call on the number. Oh my God, you're so good at memorizing numbers.

[D]

I know and I've said it how many times? Eight. Hold on. No, this is so bad.

[A]

This is good because people are. Now they get to open up their notes app or they get to get out a pen and paper and write it down.

[D]

Right. Sorry guys. 347-560-0401.

[A]

And we're sure that's correct?

[D]

We are sure. I'm staring at it.

[A]

And what is that number again?

[D]

347-56-00-0401.

[A]

Okay, well, we will talk to you guys on Monday or. Excuse me. We'll be recording on Monday. New episode next Tuesday. Love you guys.

[C]

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