Last published episode: 'Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 04/10/25

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – April 10, 2025: Detailed Summary

Host: Jim Cramer
Podcast: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Release Date: April 10, 2025
Description: Jim Cramer delves into the complexities of the US-China trade war, its impact on the American economy, and provides actionable stock recommendations amidst the volatile market conditions. The episode also features an exclusive interview with Chris Gorman, CEO of Key Corp, and a lively Lightning Round with listener calls.

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I. Introduction and Trade War Context

Jim Cramer opens the episode by setting the stage for a critical discussion on the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. He underscores the historical backdrop, tracing the origins of economic relations and how they have evolved into the current tariff-heavy environment.

Notable Quote:

“One of the most stunning things that's happened in my lifetime was when Nixon went to China, totally out of nowhere.” [01:04]

Cramer recounts the pivotal moments from Nixon’s 1972 visit to China, normalization of relations in 1979, and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, highlighting the exponential growth in bilateral trade—from $1 billion in 1985 to over $439 billion by 2024.

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II. Impact of Tariffs on Companies and the Economy

Cramer delves deep into the repercussions of the imposed tariffs, particularly the staggering 145% tariff on Chinese goods, which he equates to an "embargo." He articulates the severe implications for American businesses reliant on Chinese imports, citing sectors like electronics, machinery, plastics, and furniture.

Notable Quotes:

“We simply aren't ready yet for this as a nation. Shamefully, we've gotten addicted to cheap Chinese imports.” [05:30]

“Companies that are dependent on China, like Apple, are going to have a very hard time moving their manufacturing. They'll have to take a monumental hit.” [07:45]

Cramer outlines the vulnerabilities of major corporations such as Apple (70% manufacturing in China), Qualcomm (62%), Corning (33%), and Intel (27%), emphasizing the imminent challenges they face due to supply chain disruptions and increased costs.

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III. Market Reaction and Shifts in Investment

Reflecting on the market's response, Cramer explains the significant downturns in major indices—Dow Jones dropping 1,015 points, S&P 500 falling 3.46%, and Nasdaq plummeting 4.1%. He attributes these declines to investor anxiety over the sustained trade conflict with China and anticipates prolonged market instability.

Notable Quote:

“We now have a 145% tariff on Chinese goods. A number that high frankly isn't really a tariff. It's more of an embargo.” [08:15]

Cramer observes a noticeable shift in investment strategies, with investors gravitating towards companies with minimal or no exposure to China. Sectors like healthcare, utilities, and certain consumer staples are experiencing increased investment as a result.

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IV. Stock Recommendations: Casey's General Store and Cracker Barrel

In response to the challenging economic landscape, Cramer recommends focusing on domestic companies resilient to tariff impacts and capable of thriving in a softened consumer spending environment. He spotlights Casey's General Store and Cracker Barrel as prime investment opportunities.

Casey's General Store:

• Overview: Iowa-based convenience store chain with nearly 2,900 locations across 20 states.
• Strengths: Vertical integration, strong distribution network, and a loyal customer base.
• Performance: Up 40% over the past 12 months with consistent growth.

Notable Quote:

“Casey's has grown gradually over the years to become a true powerhouse. It has the fourth most liquor licenses among US retailers, and it's even the fifth largest pizza chain in the country.” [15:20]

Cracker Barrel:

• Overview: Consumer discretionary company undergoing a turnaround under new CEO Julie Macino.
• Strengths: Enhanced menu, improved guest experience, and robust digital capabilities.
• Performance: Despite recent stock declines, Cramer views it as undervalued with a solid 2.5% yield.

Notable Quote:

“Cracker Barrel is a consumer discretionary play, and I think it's pure guilt by association... If anyone cared to dig into the numbers, this was just another strong quarter.” [18:45]

Cramer emphasizes the potential for these companies to outperform in a post-tariff economy, driven by their domestic focus and value-oriented business models.

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V. Exclusive Interview with Chris Gorman, CEO of Key Corp

Cramer engages in an insightful conversation with Chris Gorman, Chairman and CEO of Key Corp, celebrating the bank’s 200th anniversary. The discussion centers on the resilience of regional banks, the importance of balanced regulation, and the future of banking in an America-focused trade environment.

Key Highlights:

• Resilience: Emphasis on liquidity, capital strength, and client-centric approaches as pillars of Key Corp’s longevity.
• Regulatory Landscape: Optimism about achieving balanced regulation that prioritizes safety and soundness without overburdening banks.
• Economic Outlook: Anticipates increased reshoring of supply chains and growth opportunities within the US market.

Notable Quotes:

“Being resilient, taking the long view, really being client-centric… those things have helped us all.” [33:04]

“We can achieve balanced regulation and also get some regulatory relief on things that don't pertain to safety and soundness.” [37:33]

Gorman shares strategic insights on how Key Corp is positioning itself to capitalize on the shifting economic tides favoring domestic businesses.

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VI. Lightning Round Highlights

The latter portion of the episode features the Lightning Round, where Cramer interacts with listeners seeking advice on various stocks. He provides candid assessments, often steering callers towards or away from specific investments based on their exposure to China and overall market conditions.

Notable Interactions:

• Estee Lauder: Cramer dismisses it as “one of the worst companies” he has invested in, advising against it. [10:26]
• Shopify: Highly recommends continuing to accumulate shares, praising its strong performance. [10:27]
• Organon: Strongly advises against investing due to its declining fundamentals and heavy reliance on Chinese imports. [28:47]
• Energy Transfer & Snowflake: Offers mixed reviews, selectively endorsing based on market positioning. [38:55, 39:38]

Cramer's straightforward approach in the Lightning Round underscores his commitment to guiding investors through turbulent times by focusing on resilient, domestically-oriented companies.

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VII. Closing Thoughts on Tariffs and Fair Trade

In his concluding remarks, Cramer reflects on the broader implications of the ongoing trade war. He advocates for a "fair trade" approach rather than outright "free trade," emphasizing the need for gradual tariff implementations to mitigate economic shock.

Notable Quote:

“You need to do it in a way that doesn't do damage to our great American companies. We just have to be more thoughtful about this or we'll end up doing more harm than good.” [42:18]

Cramer warns of impending inflationary pressures and potential shortages in consumer goods, stressing the importance of strategic policymaking to balance protecting domestic industries while maintaining economic stability.

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VIII. Final Disclaimer

Jim Cramer concludes the episode with a standard disclaimer, emphasizing that his opinions are personal and should not be taken as specific investment advice.

Notable Disclaimer:

“All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Cramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates...” [46:01]

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Conclusion:

In this episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer provides a comprehensive analysis of the US-China trade tensions and their far-reaching impacts on the American economy and stock market. Through detailed discussions and targeted stock recommendations, he offers valuable insights for investors navigating these uncertain times. The exclusive interview with Chris Gorman further enriches the conversation, shedding light on the resilience and strategic positioning of regional banks amidst shifting economic landscapes. Overall, the episode serves as a crucial guide for investors seeking to make informed decisions in a volatile market environment.

Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome, everybody. Welcome to Cramerica. I hope you make friends. Hey, look, I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just entertain, but to educate, teach. Call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me, Jim Cramer. One of the most stunning things that's happened in my lifetime was when Nixon went to China, totally out of nowhere. 1972, we thought we'd done something unthinkable. We'd embrace Mao Zedong. We decided our mortal enemy was no more. We were going to be acquaintances. 1979, we normalized relations between the two countries. We did a billion bucks in business in the next year. In 1985, we imported nearly 4. $4 billion in the People's Republic of China. 2001, China got into the World Trade Organization. We bought over $100 billion in goods from the PRC. 23 years later, the number is roughly 439 billion. An insane amount, especially given how little they buy from us. But those days are over now. Excluding the first three and a half months of the year, it will be almost nothing. Unless the President can cut a deal. Something he doesn't seem that eager to do. I don't know about how you think it is. Hey, by the way, the Chinese aren't too either. Eager either. Now I think that what's dawned on people today, and it was not a pretty sight, is that maybe there is no deal for some time. That's why Dow's tumbling 1015 points S&P plunging 3.46%. Nasdaq plummeting 4.1%. Okay, it came on top of some amazing results yesterday. But the sell off decimated some areas and left us think that this China issue could be with us for for a while. We now have 145% tariff on Chinese goods. A number that high frankly isn't really a tariff. It's more of an embargo. Almost nobody's going to pay that much of a markup. It's a recipe for losing money. I think Trump knows that and he seems more angry at the previous presidents who gave away the store than he is at President Xi whom he always says he respects a great deal. As much as I sympathize with what President Trump is trying to do here, and I do, we simply aren't ready yet for this as a nation. Shamefully, we've gotten addicted to cheap Chinese imports. Last year we imported $127 million in electrical equipment alone. Think smartphones, computers, lithium ion batteries, video games. We brought in 85 billion in Chinese machinery like computer hardware, industrial equipment, toys, games, sports equipment. 32 billion plastics 21 billion, 20 billion in furniture. And you can expect as you figure, it's Wal Mart, it's Amazon, Target, Home Depot, Dollar Tree, they were the big. Now I want you to imagine what happens when these imports dry up. It is not good. We do not have enough sourcing capability around the globe to make up for this lost merchandise. Now layer on our companies that have high revenue exposure to China. Las Vegas Sands with 63% Qualcomm 62 wind resource, we just saw them 47. Corning at 33. Intel 27 according to Goldman Sachs. And I could tell you they're all hum. And then figure out which companies are China using China as a major base of manufacturing. Apple 70% Hewitt Packard 40% Dell 40% HP 30% that is harrowing. These numbers from bank of America Research. Much longer set of numbers available in cnscnbc.com if you're intrigued by this. Long story short, hate it or like it and I hate it. Our economies are deeply intertwined. I don't want it, but I don't know about this way of doing it. Our people are definitely going to take a real hit from this. We'll survive, but it's incredibly disruptive. Very inflationary. I fear that the Chinese will have more stamina than we do. Their people might have a higher pain threshold. Told them we have. They live in an authoritarian dictatorship. They're on a warrior footing. We are now it's possible that we can find alternative sources for some of these things, but you can imagine empty shelves in almost all the stores for Christmas. A dick's the best buyer at Target. And maybe not Wal Mart, maybe Macy's. We know there are other countries that are clamoring to make the things that China makes, but it's not realistic to believe they can pull it off in such a short period of time. The companies that are dependent on China, companies like Apple, are going to have a very hard time moving their manufacturing. They'll have to take a monumental hit. I have said own Apple, don't trade it for years. But boy oh boy, will Apple suffer if the White House doesn't cut a deal or at least give Apple a needed exemption as it should have given because it's pledged to do so much here. Is the market reflecting any of this? No, but something else is happening too. People are investing in companies just started yesterday that don't have all that much exposure to China or none. You can see it in health care, excluding drugs, which are still facing the possibility of their own set of powers. UnitedHealth Group in your man are good examples. They were up once again. I mean it's really incredible. Former up nearly 3%, the latter up 2%. Sinkhaun McCassin. You know those middlemen, they always work. Kroger rallies 3%. Why not? American grocery store chain Con Edge doing well. Utility, Verizon. Perfect. Coca Cola. Waste Management. Yeah, these are timeless. The best. You know what's the best? Tjx. A ton of retailers will have to order a lot of inventory to be able to get through the holidays. Too much inventory and they'll then have to offload their unsold merchandise to tjx. There is a reason the stock keeps finding itself on the new all time high list of the fact that I'm next door to 1. I go there all the time. Finally, and most obviously, there are three retailers with the balance sheets to win and to own. It's Amazon, Walmart and Costco. Take a look around at all the other retailers. They could be in their death throes. Death by withdrawal. With the exception of the two big box hardware stores. I don't know how they can make it if they're up against those big three. On the other hand, there are a Lot of hidden problems. Companies that are relying on some key elements from China. I was looking at a deck on Stanley, Black and Decker stock that we fortunately sold at a good price for the Chapel Trust. $1 billion in their cost of goods sold came from China. They said that a 10% China tariff is equal to 90 to $100 million for them. And we're doing 145% Best Buy. Oh, another test. Tough situation. Oh man, they got a source from China. No, thank you. Of all the companies that we that will never know that need parts made in China, parts you never heard of. Well, that's going to come too. What about these companies, the auto companies, the trucks, the machinery, all the automotive after parts. All this stuff that we thought we were making, they've been making sure we can do without their sandals and their pens. We don't need their gift wrap and their printed bags. We can get Samsung stuff from Korea to substitute for Apple even though we certainly don't want it. They're the winner. Yeah, Korea. And the best company in America is the loser because it bet too big on China. Remember this all happened because our previous leaders decided that we might as well outsource our manufacturing to other companies because they could do it cheaper than we could. I like to mention my dad's business because it's so pertinent. My dad represented the best gift wrap companies in the world. In Philadelphia he sold the very finest, Champion St. Regis. I still have some of the roles from 50, 60 years ago. They are gorgeous. But China came with this real cheap, nasty gift wrap. And America likes cheap. One by one the mills that my dad worked for went under. It was a terrible business. Then one day he switched sides. Worked for the Chinese because they made themselves the only game in town. All the American guys were out of business. They all got wiped out. He sold their plastic bags and hey, they treated him fabulously. He developed a terrific business starting at 72. Was still bubbling at 92 when he d. He did great last month. I know I had to pay the taxes, but how about the people who are in the mills? Pop repped, who knows? And from the heads of both parties, who cares? Sacrificial lamb shanks. I think what we saw today was the beginning of a sorting period between those that have no China exposure and those that do. Unfortunately, those that do employ a lot of people and are excellent companies. But they may not be excellent enough to make it through this new environment. And that is a real shame. Oh, I'm sure we can live without China. Really? But America will be a far more expensive place with lots of unemployment and reliance on other countries outside of China. Yes, I think we have to take them on now or never. But there'll be lots of pain ahead, more than we might be willing to take. And we got to do some changing, some portfolios. So the bottom line, is it worth it? Depends. I think it's worth some temporary pain to drive a hard bargain, though, and get a more favorable trade deal out of the Chinese government. But it's not worth it to go back to $439 billion in imports to zero, unfortunately. I'm actually thinking that might be where we're headed. Hey, how about Tanya in South Carolina? Tanya. Hey, how are you, Tanya? I'm dynamite. How about you? I'm wonderful. I'm excited to talk to you. But I have a question. This is my first time investing in stocks, so what do you think about Coca Cola? I love that. I think it's true. James Quincy is terrific. It's got a good dividend, it's really well run, it's got an international presence, but at the same time, it's not got. Not as a China problem. And it's doing well in this environment. You have a winner. Hey, why don't we go to Josh in New York? Josh.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. Josh, first time caller, big fan. I was born in Philadelphia and I've got a baby on the way. So I'm bullish about my own future here.

[Jim Cramer]

I like everything about you so far, Josh. This is the best date I've ever been on. Well, second, my wife was dynamite. That was a great date. That was a blind date, believe it or not. Good.

[Caller]

And wanted to see what your thoughts are on Estee Lauder. The stock hit an all time high.

[Jim Cramer]

No, Josh, it's just a total turn off, man. Everything was going so well between us and I got to break up this date right now, right here. Estee Lauder is one of the worst companies I've ever invested in. I don't want you to do that. As a matter of fact, I got 499 others that I like more. I am very sorry, but we're going to have to end the relationship right here, right now. Let's go to Mikey, South Carolina. Mike. Jim, how you doing? I am doing well, Mike. How about you?

[Caller]

I'm doing great. Hey, thank you so much for taking my call. And before we get started, I just. I just wanted to say that on behalf of myself and family here in Ohio, that we love you and appreciate everything that you do, man.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, guys. I'm looking at my staff telling them how great this is. Thank you so much. You've been a couple of challenging days. Holy cow. Getting up at 2am to see people wrecking the market and stuff and then not being able to get back to sleep. You bet. What's happening?

[Caller]

Hey, I've held Shopify now for more than five years and wondered if you thought it was still worth accumulating shares.

[Jim Cramer]

Especially better than ever. The shop master. I think it's great. Harley's great. I love those guys. I think you got a total winner. I would not trade. It's. I would not move a share. Shopify. Yes. All right, look, I just don't think it might be worth the pain to go from a half a trillion dollars in trade with a country zero like that. And from this tape it looks like the market agrees with me. Remember, I want I share the goal of the president. I just don't want it done as precipitously. Okay, well man money tonight. It's hard to find winners in this volatile tape, but I've spotted some opportunities domestic food retail space that I think could work here. You might even know that constant stream of tariff updates. Not from here then I'm taking a look at one lesser known farmer named Sherry. If the recent decline could be buying opportunity or not. And as I just said, this market is shying away from anything with China exposure. So should you. Maybe you should turn to a regional bank, a key corp. When I'm looking at a financial I'm getting the latest from the company's top brand. So stay with Kramer.

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

Although we've now been liberated from most of the Liberation Day tariff announcements, we're still left with a very challenging market, aren't we? Because we're dealing with 145% tariff in China, our third largest trading partner, and a 10% duty. Everything else with the possibility of a more than more than that. Once the 90 day pause runs its course, the universe of stocks that can work in this environment simply isn't that big. It shrinks all the time. It was bigger than it was two days ago, but can we still find potential winners if we know what we're looking for? Which brings me to Casey's General Store and Cracker Barrel. These picks are based on the idea that we'll still have a somewhat soft consumer spending environment. Frankly, we'd be surprised if we still have a recession. That's why we want stocks that are mostly immune to the tariffs and that can work in a slowdown. That of course are domestic cases in Cracker Barrel. Most they mostly consist of off highway locations. Perfect of a stop first stop during a cheap road trip, which I think will be the preferred mode of vacation travel now that people are a lot more worried about their money. At the same time, they both offer great value and I very much believe that consumers still crave value. They'll crave it even more in a severe slowdown. So let's take a closer look, starting with Casey's. That's the Iowa based convenience store chain with nearly 2900 locations across 20 states, mostly the Midwest, offering self service, fuel, a wide selection of groceries and freshly prepared food. Food items in particular. Their pizza is very popular. Even though some of these formulations sound downright criminal. If you live in New York, a bacon, egg and cheese pizza. I mean, I'm sorry, where I come from that that belongs. That's a sandwich. But the great people of Iowa, they choose to disagree with me. Now. Casey's has grown gradually over the years to become a true powerhouse. It's the third largest convenience store chain in the United States. It has the fourth most liquor licenses among US retailers, and it's even the fifth, fifth largest pizza chain in the country. When I tell people like this one who live on either coast, they think I've lost my mind. Until I hear someone from the east or west say, yeah, man, I love that pizza. That pizza is so good. I know we are still early in the Casey's game and I can recommend it to you. More importantly, Casey's knows exactly where its merchandise sells best. Small towns with this convenience. Convenience store is principally a cornucopia of essential items. I wonder if they even know what a tariff is. I mean, when you're in the heartland, people don't tariff things. Two thirds of the stores are in towns with less than 20,000 people. Not a lot of tariffs there. Casey is also vertically integrated with its own distribution centers and a large fuel tanker fleet, which helps give it the scale to negotiate favorable contracts with its suppliers. Whatever they're doing at Casey's is clearly working as this has been a fantastic growth stock for years on end. This is up 40% over the past 12 months and it's giving you a monster 2,391% over the past 20 years. I'd eat breakfast pizza every day for gains like that, but I feel confident recommending here because the stock never got hit all that hard during the volatility over the last couple of months. While Casey's pulled back nearly 15% from mid February to early March. The company then report a phenomenal course that the stock soaring to a new all time high by the middle of last week. And it's still within a couple of bucks of its high despite the tariff terror since then. Oh, I wish I recommended into that pullback which I bought from a charitable trust for heaven's sake. But honestly, Casey's has been at or near its highs every time I've talked about it and it's always turned out to be a good time to buy the stock. Plus, even after its big gains, the stock isn't all that expensive. Trading roughly 28 times the next year's earnings estimates. It's a great growth stock, so that's all right. Given the company's track record and consistency, I'm happy to pay a multiple that high. As for Cracker Barrel, well, this one's a much more of a turnaround story under relatively new CEO Julie Macino, who took over in August 2023. Now we've been tracking the progress of Crack Barrel since the last spring. I told you to wait until the company cut its once over large dividend and something that happened shortly thereafter. After that I started to truly get on board with this one. Now we've had Messina on the show a couple of times over the past year and she's making solid progress on the turnaround Refine the Cracker Barrel brand enhancing the menu involving the store and guest experience Improving the company's digital capabilities I am impressed. At the onset of a store refresh effort, Cracker Barrel tested a couple of different types of remodels with various cost levels. They wanted the benefit of story models but didn't want to overspend if they didn't have to. I thought it was very smart. All the while Mercedes not losing sight of Cracker Barrels fiercely loyal customer base and she's also offering them great value now. Initially the stock roared as Cracker Barrel turnaround started playing out. It's rallying from the mid-30s to the mid-60s in late January. Unfortunately, this led straight into the broader market sell offs growth and the stock's been wrecked since then, plunging into just under $39 as of today. But here's the thing, there were no real negatives about Cracker Barrel specifically during this period. I think it's pure guilt by association. Unlike Casey's, which is part of the consumer staples cohort as a convenience store, Cracker Barrel is a consumer discretionary play and those have been hated since consumer confidence numbers started softening earlier this year as those concerns morphed into outright recession fears, people just sold the whole discretionary sector down. Even the ones with that represented good value like this one. Also unlike Casey's, Cracker Barrels quarter couldn't save the stock. But if anyone cared to dig into the numbers, this was just another strong quarter. Same restaurant sales up 4.7%, nearly double what Wall street was looking for. They also post a solid revenue beat, a 30 cent earnings beat off a dollar weight basis that can even raise the full year forecast. I think it was absolutely Insane that this $38 stock is now down $27 from its January highs show at this point. This turnaround stock sells for just 14 times this year's earnings estimates thanks to the recent decline, now sports a nearly 2.5% yield after they got the dividend. If yesterday's 90 day pause on most of the large tariffs means that we can stop dumping whole groups like the consumer discretionary sector and start evaluating companies on their individual merits. Again that I think it's a great moment to bet on another Cracker Barrel comeback. Here's the bottom line. Even after yesterday's rebound, I still think you need you got to think critically about what kind of environment we have and what stocks are working here. And that's why I'm steering you toward these purely domestic terrific companies. Yes, maybe niche Casey's General Store and Cracker Barrel as plays on budget conscious vacations this upcoming summer with cheap gasoline on the road. There are different stories with different investment cases. Casey's a long term outperformer. Cracker Barrel is a turnaround story. But you know what? I like them both very much going forward. Stay with CRIN.

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[Jim Cramer]

On Tuesday night, Denise in New Hampshire called in to ask about this thing called a Organon, which is a drug company focused on women's health was spun off by Merck four years ago. She want to know why I was doing so poorly. And you know a pharmaceutical company outsized dividend yields to 9.4% at the time goes back down to 8.6% today. Well this sure looks like the kind of recession proof name that maybe we should be buying right yet Oregon on it's been a night at its current level of $11 and change, this stock is down more than 50% from its highs last August. Now if you pull back the chart a little further, this thing's down 71% from its all time high back in March of 2022 and it's barely above its all time low of December 2023. While I know of Oregon, I've never really followed it all that closely. So I told Denise that let me take a look at the darn thing, get back to her. Woman's had a better idea of what went wrong here. So let's take a step back for a second. A few years ago Merck spun off this business in order to bolster its growth profile. Merck wanted to focus on cancer and immunology and vaccines. It didn't want to manage the flattish or declining sales from its women's health business along with the big generic drug portfolio. Now we've seen similar transactions from Pfizer which merged at merged up John generics business with Mylan spun into office a business called Viatris, although slightly different. GlaxoSmithKline spun off its consumer health business as Halion for similar reasons. It wanted to keep the fast growing pharma division jettison the slower growing consumer division. The price of these spin offs from Oregon on to Viatris to Hyalion, they won't give you much growth but they're typically very profitable and usually feature very high dividend yields. That said, I've become wary of these big big pharma spinoffs. Sure yes they got that great dividend yield like Oregon on, but I can't take the thought that well the former parent companies keep getting rid of these companies for a reason. If these were really attractive businesses, would Merck and Pfizer and Glaxo have thrown them away or were they kept them? And just look at the high level financials for Organon. We can see immediately why the stocks done so poorly its first four years of trading. The company sales is relatively steady, just over $6 billion these past few years. But organized earnings per share have shrunk every year. Finally it fell gradually at 654per share in 2021 to just 411per share last year. Because those slowly slowly declining earnings. You'll see these off patent generic no growth spin offs often have ultra low price turnings multiples. Oregon trades is just over three times this year's earnings estimates. That's lower than gm. Now it might look very cheap to you, but do not be fooled. These are the ultimate value traps. Oregon for example, has missed earnings expectations for four of its last nine quarters. Hey, other times, even when Organon's beaten the Street's low expectations, the company has still managed to disappoint investors with its forward guidance. And that's what happened the last time they reported. In mid February, Oregon posted in line sales which were flat year over year, managed a 3 cent earnings beat off an 87 cent basis. Then the company disappointed its full year 2025 guidance which was substantially lower than expected. And you know what they implied a year over year sales decline of 1 to 4%. Oh man, a drug company with a decline. Now there are a couple more factors that explain Oregon's recent poor performance. First the company has significant revenue exposure to China which is the second largest marketing for roughly 21% of revenue according to facts estimates. Kiss of death China, the US is only 25% of the revenue. So China is almost as important as for these guys. And as you might have heard, we now have 145% tariff on Chinese goods and they have an 84% tariff on American goods. Ending that high is basically what I call an embargo. So a fifth of Oregon sales might be at risk here. No wonder the stock's been obliterated. Then there's the other thing which might be the biggest thing even more significant than the trade war with China. See, Organon has a dicey balance sheet. Sell, sell, sell. This is another typical characteristic of these big pharma cast offs. The former parent typically uses the opportunity to force a big chunk of their debt off on these businesses that they spin out. It makes sense in theory given that these spin offs the companies do typically have strong cash flows that make them better suited to pay off debt. But if you're looking at these companies as a fresh investments, heavy debt lows are major negative. Now for Oregon specifically, the company ended last year with nearly $9 billion in debt, which is roughly triple the company's $2.95 billion market capitalization. Now let's say you back out the 675 million in cash and cash equivalents. You get a net debt load of about $28.2 billion. Given organized guiding for just under 2 billion in earnings before interest tax depreciated amortization this year. That means the company has what we call leverage ratio of 4.2 that is very high. Even without the possibility the company might lose a fifth of its sales thanks to the trade war, organized debt load has some major implications. First, the company simply has a huge interest expense obligation every single year because that debt over $500 million. The good news is that most of organized debt doesn't mature for a few years. But there are some large maturities starting in 2028. As that gets closer, if Organon can't refinance its debt, well, guess what? The company might have to make some tough decisions. And you know what one of them might be? How about whether they should pay a $300 million a year dividend? Again, I don't want to stress, I got to stress this. I not an immediate concern. Companies aren't saying anything. I'm just looking at the balance sheet. If you're long term, you need to worry about a potential dividend cut. Here a few years down the road. So to recap for Denise in New Hampshire, yes, as a steady pharma company with a nice dividend yield, you'd think that a stock like Organon should work in this environment. But you look into the company's fundamentals. This is just not a very attractive business. The company's earnings base have been shrinking since the spin off from Merck four years ago and they now regularly miss expectations when they report worse. The company has a lot of more China exposure that I'm comfortable with and soon enough you're going to have to worry about debt loads and maybe even a dividend cut. Bottom line, I'm not in the habit of recommending businesses that are in decline, especially when they have ugly balance sheets and by the way, are right in the blast zone of this trade. There's just too much to go wrong with Oregon and that very little that could change the overall trajectory for the better. Denise in New Hampshire, I say live free. Don't buy, don't buy. Richard in California. Richard, don't look at me. Compare what you're going to say. What's happening? Richard, this is Tony. Jim. Hey, what's shaking? What's going on? Oh, Tony, I got one question. Doing great, Tony from Ford's New Jersey. And I got my gosh, of course. Yeah, yeah. It ain't a high flying stock.

[Caller]

It's Pfizer.

[Jim Cramer]

I just like to know after they take it a beaten with the PE where it's at and 8%, is it a buy? Is it not a buy? Okay, well let me tell you, let me tell you something, Tony. Right now we have a government that is trying to figure out whether it's going to tax the heck out of drug companies, raise tariffs out of drug companies or not. I can't make a prediction anymore. Yields 8%. Normally say fine, but you know what, let's say you decide. You know what we need big tariffs on Pfizer. You'll say, wow, I'm buying that stock at 18 rather than 21, so I'm going to have to say pass. Now let's go to Richard in California. Richard.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Hey, Richard.

[Caller]

First I wanted to tell you thanks for being a voice in the wilderness at this particular time. It's refreshing and really appreciate it.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you. Thank you. And my wife would say tiring, like are you really going to bed that early? Go ahead. How can I help?

[Caller]

Well, in this new environment, I believe my core holding is looking better than ever. This healthcare and AI company deals within the US service sector growing rapidly quarter over quarter with $750 million of dry powder on the balance sheet. It's needed for all healthcare services and for new AI drug discovery and development. Maybe most important of all, it's only in greed. Tim, how do you feel about Radnet at this time?

[Jim Cramer]

Well, okay, so RADH is being hurt because when interest rates go up, people are thinking rates are going up. Now, unbelievably, it's a high multiple stock and those do not work in this environment. So I'm going to have to say let's take a pass on a company that was doing quite well. It is still doing well, but the stock is not going to do well. So I say no to Radio Net. I'm sorry. Look, I've never been in the business of recommending a company that's in decline. I'm not going to start now, especially in environment like this. I want to see strong balance sheets and more mutiny for this trade war. So we're going to say no to Oregon on and Mad Money is just ahead with my exclusive with Key Corp, just head of bank earnings, I'm getting a look at a regional bank landscape from the company's top brass. Then we got a really good consumer price index today. But could it be the last one for a while as Trump's tariffs threaten to stoke inflation? I'm sharing what I think could happen to a host of prices across our economy. And believe me, it's not a story that I really want to share. But I got to tell you, and of course, all your calls. Rapid Fire, tonight's edition of the Lightning round. So stay with Kramer. After a nicer preve yesterday, we're right back in a world of hurt. We desperately try to figure out what kind of stocks can work in this environment. For example, what about the regional banks? These are fully domestic companies that don't have many direct tariff concerns. As long as the trade war doesn't cause a full blown recession, something is still very much a possibility, I fear. Take Key core parent of KeyBanc. That's a Cleveland based bank with an underappreciated capital markets business. This Stock's fallen from $20 in late November to $13 and change today solely based, I think on worries about the broader economy. Now the company's currently in its quiet period ahead of its next earnings report. So we're not going to talk about the numbers that comes out next week. But the bank's leadership was in the building today to ring the closing bell in celebration of their 200 year anniversary. I think it'd be a good chance to catch up, see what they're thinking. So let's check in with Chris Gorman. He's the Chairman, President and CEO of Mr. Gorman, welcome back to Money.

[Chris Gorman]

Thank you so much, Jim. So great to be here.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, first, congratulations. Not many companies have made it this far. What is key six? What is the formula for success to get to be around this long?

[Chris Gorman]

Well, I think one of the things and it's been it's our current teammates and it's the teammates that came before us. It's just really being resilient. And you think about all the different markets being able to take advantage when there's market opportunities and also positioning the bank through a range of conditions. And so I'm just so proud to have the privilege of leading this team. As we celebrate our 200th birthday, a couple interesting stats you might find.

[Jim Cramer]

Sure.

[Chris Gorman]

In 1825, there were only 24 states in the country and there are only 11 million people. So that kind of puts it in perspective of how we've been along for the ride, so to speak.

[Jim Cramer]

And a lot of banks in Ohio have not made it this far. There have been a series of legendary Ohio banks that or fail. But you've always kept your credit tight and you've always stuck to your knitting, which is in many ways the local bank of where you are.

[Chris Gorman]

Absolutely. And one of the things that enables, I think, banks to be really resilient, it starts with having a lot of liquidity and a lot of capital. And we fortunately are well positioned from that perspective. And also, you know, we're well positioned as we. As we look at the rest of the year. So I think, I think being resilient, taking the long view, really being client centric, I think all those things have helped us all.

[Jim Cramer]

Right. So I want to bounce something off you and you're the person. When I heard you were ringing the bell, I said, what a good opportunity. Do you think that a year from now, in light of what's going on in Washington, we'll be thinking much more about companies that are American companies, not international companies based in America, and that the companies that are American will do better in the marketplace, maybe even get a higher price during multiple because they're not entangled with places that this current president wishes we were?

[Chris Gorman]

Well, I don't think there's any question. If you think about COVID and you think about the disruptions in the supply chains, I think the notion of reshoring is real. And reshoring will probably be Most people will have most of their supplier base in Mexico, the United States and probably Canada. And so I think there's a huge opportunity. You know, most of our customers, you know, clearly our global customers, but many of them are thinking about reshoring and how they get their supply chains. And I do think a year from now there'll be more activity in the United States.

[Jim Cramer]

It does seem that both the president, during his campaigns in Pennsylvania and Ohio and the vice president from where he's from, uniquely understand that the travails of people in the state of Ohio, the number of plants that have closed, the kind of destruction that happened in communities. Do you see any of that coming back?

[Chris Gorman]

I do. I think, I think you'll see companies continue to flourish. But also the economy's changed a lot. So in spite of the fact that, yes, there's a lot fewer factories, but you think about medicine, you think about pharmaceuticals, you think about finance, a lot of the economy, economies in Ohio have changed. I'll tell you though, we, we in Ohio have been very successful of getting people to actually move to Ohio, companies to move to Ohio. And so it's been.

[Jim Cramer]

Give me some examples.

[Chris Gorman]

Well, so there's for example, the intel investment, right, Huge investments by companies like Google and Amazon in central Ohio. And so actually a stat came out, Jim, that that Ohio is the second best place to do business, which I think is poor. And I give Governor DeWine and now Senator Houston, he was the lieutenant governor at the time, really a lot of credit for creating a great business environment in Ohio.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so also tell me what was, why did bank of Nova Scotia come down Scotiabank, good bank, and tie up with you?

[Chris Gorman]

Well, I think one of the things that Scott Thompson, who's the CEO of Bank of Nova Scotia, wanted to do is he wanted more exposure to the US So bank of Nova Scotia, as you might know, obviously a huge player in Canada and a significant player in Central and South America. And I think he felt that having a tie up with somebody in the States, particularly it's middle market focused, particularly that has capital markets capabilities, particularly has a big wealth management business, big payments business, I think he thought it was a good fit. We're just starting to scratch the surface on some of the things we can work, work on together.

[Jim Cramer]

Now, what can a president do when it comes to regulation? Is there a way to make it so the regulators are not overregulating? I know it's hard for a bank CEO to talk about this, but it does seem to me that there's got to be Five different regulate regulators of yours and that. That's not necessarily good for the country.

[Chris Gorman]

Well, I'm actually optimistic, Jim. I was in D.C. for two days last week and as I made the rounds I am optimistic that. And it isn't that anyone in our industry industry doesn't want regulation. Safety and soundness is critically important, particularly when you have markets like we've seen most recently. But I think to focus on safety and soundness instead of focusing on a bunch of other processes and procedures that don't necessarily pertain to safety and soundness I think is great and I'm actually optimistic and it's good. Yeah. And it's. I think it's going to be. And that will in turn give us the opportunity to lend more money and to help grow.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, that's great. You know, it's gotten so convoluted. You're the first person's told me, look, don't give up the ship. It's. It's still possible that we have a light, not a. I don't want. We don't want poor regulation. We just want bankers to be able to lend and have good regulation from one or two regulators, not from five of them.

[Chris Gorman]

Indeed. And so what we really need is balanced regulation. It's important for safety and soundness of the system and I think we can achieve that and also get some regulatory relief on things that frankly don't pertain to safety and soundness.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, well look, it's great that you came in. You know I'm a supporter of your bank. I certainly like that yield too. I don't understand what happened that all the banks came down because it does make sense to me and I like what you had to say about the new regime because we do need a. We need banks that can. We need to collect. That's why I thank Chris Gorman. He's the chairman CEO of Key Corp. K ey they report next weekend will be certain them to catch you up on how they do. Edmund's back after the break. Thanks. It is time. It's time for the lightroom by sauce. I'll just put in a coarse occupants ahead turn my steppers the grandfather you play this out and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Skeet dang down to the lightning round Crazy man. We'll start with Jonathan Pennsylvania. Jonathan. Jonathan.

[Caller]

Full yacht Jim. How's it going?

[Jim Cramer]

I am doing well. How about you Jonathan?

[Caller]

Good and quick shout out to my buddy Brian Borderman from Doylestown. Okay. So I'm looking to add a dividend stock to my portfolio in these crazy times. And this one has come down recently and is now yielding 8%. I'm calling about Entertainment Energy Transfer.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm going to give it two for that. I like. I like Energy Transfer and I like Pink, who is also from Doylestown. Yes. All right, let's go to Pat in Washington.

[Caller]

Pat. Hey, Jim, thanks for taking my call out in the Success Northwest.

[Chris Gorman]

I was thinking of buying a stock called Snowflake.

[Jim Cramer]

And if not, I like Snowflake. I like it. I think that, you know what? When I look at where that stock is now, all they're hitting a lot of the. A lot of the tech stocks. That may be a good one to be able to be in right now. Yes, it's down a lot. Went down $6 today. I. I pulled the trigger. Let's go to Bob in New York. Bob. Hey, Jim. How you doing today? I am doing well, how about you?

[Chris Gorman]

We've had better days, buddy.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, let's do it together. Okay. Got a twofer for you. First, when are you going to bring back the wall of shame?

[Chris Gorman]

And secondly, in this environment is Enterprise Product Partners, a stock to own now and going forward.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, now people are selling this thing because they do. They have a lot of ethane business. They have a lot of certain natural gas liquids that are really stalled right here. I say don't worry about this. Actually a fantastic chance to buy. And I do have some people want to add the wall of shame. So maybe we just have to just, just. We may have to pull that bad boy up again. Let's go to Curtin, Florida.

[Caller]

Kurt, Jim, a big boy out to ya for everything that you do.

[Jim Cramer]

Quite welcome. Thank you.

[Caller]

I'm calling about a Flag Digital Corp.

[Jim Cramer]

No, it's losing money. And I got enough problems with companies that are winning and making money. I can't go for the losers. I am sorry. Let's go to Betty in Tennessee. Betty. Hi, Jam. Thank you for all your hard work.

[Caller]

As a member of the investment club.

[Jim Cramer]

We appreciate you. Thank you. Stay warm, man. We've been working. Oh, wow. Jeff and I have been crushing it, right? Indeed. Thank you. Thank you.

[Caller]

Listen, with the president, interest in coal, I wondered what your opinion might be of Peabody Energy.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. I gotta be careful because I wrote a piece for the club about a month ago saying that, you know what? I think he's gonna bring coal back. We gotta look at Peabody and it just didn't work because coal prices have collapsed worldwide. So even though I appreciate your thought process mimics mine. We Gotta be careful. It's not gonna make us money. I'm sorry. Oh, no. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning round.

[Announcer]

The Lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, Kramer's talking the real cost of tariffs next.

[Jim Cramer]

We got a real good consumer price index reading today. Tame inflation. Lots of categories showing actual declines in price. The best anything it touched, energy, which is plummeting. This morning David Faber and I interviewed a fellow by name of Steven Moran. He's the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. He was crying about the cpi. Fair enough was good number but it might be one of the last good ones because things are about to go up. Price all across the board thanks to the tariffs that are already being erected, including the 145% tariffs on China. This is essentially an embargo. President Trump's ecstatic that the tariffs are already taking in $2 billion a day. He's thrilled that supposedly 75 countries are hoping to begging for something more reasonable than the 90 day pause when the 90 day pause comes to an end. But what most people in this country don't seem to understand yet, even as Trump says it constantly, is that for years we've been allowing foreign companies to dump cheap goods on our market at low prices in order to crush their American competitors. And most people in this country loved it, with a notable exception of people lost their jobs. Now we're going to have to pay a price, the transition costs, as President Trump says, and then he predicts it will be in beautiful thing mode. But man, this is going to be a brutal transition. I don't think people realize what this truly means. They won't get it until we start seeing extreme price increases and even shortages for goods we used to get from China. Although we talk about cheap stuff like it's nothing, people are very sensitive to the cost of living. People hate inflation under Biden. They're not going to hate it any less if it ramps again under Trump. When we put a tariff on drug companies, which I'm told is next, prices for drugs are not going to go down, they're going to go up. When we decide that we're going to tariff all sorts of auto parts, car prices are going to up a lot when you go to Wal Mart, look, look aisle by aisle because you will not see those prices again. They are pre tariff. Now I have said that I am a fair trader, not a free trader. I want our companies to get a break to move their manufacturing back here. Perhaps a phased in tariff overseas While the host country and its companies suffer the consequences. You want to hit China? Do it this way. Go to Apple, say, listen, we give you three years to get out of China. And that time you got to pay a little small but growing tariff until you're gone. That's how you do this. Without causing severe damage to the greatest company on earth. And their departure will hurt China, too. And if you want to make Apple accountable for every penny, I don't care. Don't destroy their manufacturing base overnight. That's just. That's silly. It's giving a handout, a huge handout to Samsung. It's Korea first, not America first. Because that's what the 140% tariff on China is going to do. 145 says. You know what? Samsung's the winner. And guess what? Apple's committed to building $500 billion in projects here. How about Samsung? How did Samsung get the windfall? Has anyone thought this through? In every case where a dominant American company makes goods in China, it's about to be toppled by an accidental winner. Who's ready to take our markets for themselves? Look, I know we'll be doing fight. Don't worry about. Look, I'm going over all the all American companies. Like everyone else, I'm seeing who has the staying power. I'm going to give you the names. Who's never moved overseas, never relied on those from overseas. They're the new winners. This environment, I love it. I just want you to know that you'll be paying a lot more for most goods and that money is going straight to foreign companies, companies that will charge higher prices because of the tariffs. You put on that. Again, I am not some dogmatic free trader. No other country plays by the rules on trade, so we shouldn't either. But you need to do it in a way that doesn't do damage to our great American companies. We just have to be more thoughtful about this or we'll end up doing more harm than good. Again, as someone who wants fair trade, not free trade, I am rooting for the President to pull this off. But not at the expense of great American companies that have done nothing wrong and are the best in the world. I like to say there's always a bull market summer. And I promise try to find it just for you. Right here on Midmoney. I'm Drew Grammar. See you tomorrow.

[Disclaimer Speaker]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates. And may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer With HubSpot's built.

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