Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 04/16/25

Summary

Mad Money with Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (April 16, 2025)

Podcast Information:

• Title: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
• Host: CNBC
• Description: “Mad Money” offers listeners an inside look into the strategies and insights of Jim Cramer, a renowned money manager. The show aims to demystify Wall Street investing, providing actionable advice to help listeners navigate investment opportunities and risks. Features include Cramer's dynamic opinions and the popular Lightning Round, where he shares buy, sell, and hold recommendations based on caller inquiries.
• Episode: April 16, 2025

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1. Introduction and Market Overview

Jim Cramer opens the show with a comprehensive analysis of the current stock market turmoil, emphasizing the impact of escalating tariffs and geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. He highlights the significant market downturns, noting:

"That's why The Dow plunged 700 points today. S&P plummeted 2.24%. Nasdaq nosedive 3.07%. Hundreds of billions of dollars were lost today on the same order of tariffs and the great Chinese tariff embargo." ([01:00])

Cramer delves into the broader economic implications, stressing how U.S. policy shifts are affecting global businesses and investor confidence.

2. Impact of Tariffs on Major Companies

Cramer analyzes the repercussions of U.S. tariffs on multinational corporations, particularly focusing on Nvidia and Apple. He discusses how these companies, integral to the tech and manufacturing sectors, are navigating the restrictive trade environment:

"China was very open for business under those two [President Biden and Trump]. Sure, in his first term, President Trump was no friend to the People's Republic of China, but he wasn't a rapid hater either." ([03:15])

He critiques the Biden administration's decision to limit Nvidia's chip exports to China, arguing that it inadvertently strengthened China's ability to utilize these technologies:

"But even Nvidia's lesser chips were fast enough for China to lap them up. They even found a way to streamline more efficient models like Deep Sea. So those sanctions did backfire." ([05:25])

Cramer further explains the strategic shifts companies like Nvidia and Apple are making, such as moving manufacturing back to the U.S. despite higher costs, and how these moves are interpreted by Wall Street, often leading to stock volatility.

3. Interview with Hamid Moghada, CEO of Prologis

In an insightful segment, Cramer interviews Hamid Moghada, Chairman and CEO of Prologis, a leading real estate investment trust specializing in logistics and fulfillment centers.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Logistics Industry Amid Tariffs: Cramer questions the rationale behind Prologis’s strong yield despite the challenging tariff landscape.

  "When this stock yields 4%, it's an unbelievable opportunity. It has been for as long as I've known you, but this one surprised me." ([15:00])

  Moghada responds by highlighting the continuous demand for warehouse space driven by e-commerce growth and the strategic leasing activities that sustain Prologis's performance.

• Data Center Business Outlook: The conversation shifts to the data center sector, where Cramer expresses skepticism about the slowdown narrative.

  "The theory right now on Wall Street is that the data center business is slowing down rather dramatically. I can't find that. It's not. I go out on the ground, I don't get that story." ([19:10])

  Moghada counters by affirming the robust demand from hyperscalers and the sustained necessity for data infrastructure, despite some fluctuations in power procurement.

• Future Prospects and Resilience: Moghada emphasizes Prologis's resilience through previous economic downturns and the importance of strategic real estate positioning near key consumption centers.

  "Our business is tied to consumption. We don't really care as much about where goods are being made. We really care about where they're being consumed." ([16:35])

Notable Quotes:

• "We're very optimistic about our business trajectory despite the current uncertainties." ([17:17])
• "Life goes on. Our customers are adapting and demand remains steady." ([18:16])

4. Interview with John Gibson, CEO of Paychex

Cramer transitions to an exclusive interview with John Gibson, President and CEO of Paychex, focusing on the company's recent acquisition of Paycorp HCM for $4.1 billion.

Key Topics Discussed:

• Strategic Acquisition: Cramer praises the acquisition as a pivotal move towards industry consolidation.

  "This acquisition is all about growth. Together we're going to serve nearly 800,000 clients." ([32:06])

  Gibson elaborates on how integrating Paycorp's technology and client base with Paychex's capabilities will unlock new revenue streams and enhance service offerings.

• Market Expansion and Capabilities: The discussion covers how the merger positions Paychex to better serve both small businesses and large enterprises, leveraging advanced SaaS technology and advisory services.

  "We're going to be able to take a lot of the power of Paychex and move it into the Paycorp ecosystem systems." ([32:32])

  Gibson underscores the enhanced abilities to provide comprehensive HR outsourcing and talent management solutions.

• Economic Resilience and Small Business Confidence: Addressing economic uncertainties, Gibson expresses confidence in small and medium-sized businesses' adaptability and resilience.

  "Small business owners are extremely resilient. They face a lot. They don't have a lot of control of their macro environment, and so they are very adept at changing with the times." ([36:07])

Notable Quotes:

• "This transaction strengthens our competitive position upmarket and extends our total addressable market by about $10 billion." ([32:32])
• "We're committed to investing in our go-to-market and in innovation, our technology platforms." ([34:12])

5. Listener Calls and Q&A: Lightning Round

The episode features a dynamic Lightning Round segment where callers pose investment questions to Cramer, to which he provides his candid opinions and recommendations.

Highlighted Calls:

• Robert from Alabama (10:05): Shares a personal success story attributed to Cramer's advice and inquires about AMD's stock performance.

  "You have single-handedly changed my life. I bought a house in Florida and paid cash for it all with the money that you helped me make." ([10:10])

  Cramer encourages cautious optimism, suggesting that AMD's downturn is temporary and recommending it as a short-term trade opportunity.

• Mark from Texas (39:12): Asks about AFG Financial Group, to which Cramer acknowledges his positive view of the stock and the insurance sector.

• Drew from North Carolina (40:36): Seeks Cramer's take on NXP, a semiconductor company, with Cramer expressing his reluctance to own it due to sector volatility.

• Gus from Utah (41:04): Questions FSK, leading Cramer to discuss the challenges faced by consumer products companies amid rising tariffs and inflation, emphasizing the need for mergers to mitigate margin pressures.

Notable Interactions:

• Cramer consistently reinforces his commitment to helping listeners make informed financial decisions, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and strategic investments in uncertain times.

6. Key Insights and Conclusions

Throughout the episode, Jim Cramer provides a multifaceted analysis of the current economic climate, focusing on the interplay between geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, and their impact on major corporations and various sectors. Key takeaways include:

• Geopolitical Influence on Markets: Cramer underscores the profound impact of U.S.-China relations on global markets, highlighting the unintended consequences of tariff implementations on both American companies and the broader economy.

• Strategic Corporate Responses: Through interviews with industry leaders like Hamid Moghada and John Gibson, the episode illustrates how companies are adapting to regulatory changes by reallocating resources, investing in technology, and pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions to sustain growth and market presence.

• Investor Caution and Opportunity: Cramer's discussions with callers and analysis of company performances suggest a landscape of both caution and opportunity for investors. Companies that demonstrate resilience and strategic foresight amidst uncertainty are positioned as favorable investments.

• Consumer Market Dynamics: The Rising tariffs and cost pressures are throttling the consumer goods sector, where Cramer anticipates significant challenges for companies unable to adjust pricing strategies, with potential stock declines stemming from margin squeezes and reduced consumer spending power.

7. Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Market Downturn Analysis:

  "That's why The Dow plunged 700 points today. S&P plummeted 2.24%. Nasdaq nosedive 3.07%." ([01:00])

• Tariff Impact on Nvidia:

  "China was very open for business under those two [Biden and Trump]. Sure, in his first term, President Trump was no friend to the People's Republic of China, but he wasn't a rapid hater either." ([03:15])

• Prologis Resilience:

  "Our business is tied to consumption. We don't really care as much about where goods are being made. We really care about where they're being consumed." ([16:35])

• Paychex's Growth Strategy:

  "This transaction strengthens our competitive position upmarket and extends our total addressable market by about $10 billion." ([32:32])

• Investor Advice on AMD:

  "No, no, no. I think the word of Lisa Sue. But we're going to try to limit, as I said in the club, we're going to try to limit our exposure to what I regard as being a charnel house, a semiconductor charnel house." ([11:14])

• Consumer Products Challenge:

  "The customer demand lower prices, but the government's basically forcing them to raise prices to cover the cost of the tariffs. They've got to eat it." ([41:12])

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Conclusion:

In this episode of "Mad Money," Jim Cramer delivers a thorough examination of the factors influencing the stock market in April 2025, particularly focusing on the repercussions of U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs. Through insightful interviews with industry leaders and interactive segments with listeners, Cramer provides valuable perspectives on navigating investment opportunities and risks in a volatile economic landscape. The discussions highlight the importance of strategic adaptability for both corporations and investors, emphasizing resilience and informed decision-making as key to sustaining growth and profitability amidst ongoing global uncertainties.

Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to save you a little money. My job is not just to educate, but I got to teach you about today's like today and give you some context. Call me. 1873 CNBC We Mitch McGregor. Look, I was working on my talk for the CNBC investing club last night and it hit me like a bright bulb snapped on in a dark room. The real reason it is so hard for us to game all these tariffs is that the company's now being punished. We're doing exactly what companies were supposed to do. Burrow deep into the host country and become indispensable to them. And for that their businesses are being ravaged by the President United States who has an agenda that has nothing to do with theirs and is often at very cross purposes to you, the shareholder. That's why The Dow plunged 700 points today. S&P plummeted 2.24%. Nasdaq nosedive 3.07%. Hundreds of billions of dollars were lost today on the same order of tariffs and the great Chinese tariff embargo. Let's think about the travails of one of my all time favorite companies. Think about in video. Here's a business that makes the best technology product the world has ever seen. Run by one of the greatest visionaries of all time. Not just our time, Jensen Wa. Nvidia's advanced chips are the key to everything from Magentix and thinking bots to humanoid robots. Self driving cars. Its ships practically sell themselves and are at the heart of the new industrial revolution. Now this is a company that makes our nation proud. No country wants to be left behind. The Industrial revolution definitely one based on AI, right? And no country like China wants to be left behind. For Nvidia, China's the best kind of customer they could possibly have. I'm sure that China would happily buy huge numbers of chips and they'd probably buy all the chips. But what Nvidia didn't know was that it was selling its chips to an enemy nation. I don't blame them for not knowing, because nobody knew. At least nobody was operating under the rules of either President Biden or the previous president, President Trump. China was very open for business under those two. Sure, in his first term, President Trump was no friend to the People's Republic of China, but he wasn't a rapid hater either. Then again, China did grow more oppositional. Although it's not like it was ever a secret that the PRC was an authoritarian dictatorship with global ambitions sometimes antithetical to that of our own. Both parties now want to contain China. The Biden administration decided to limit some to some dumbed down Nvidia chips. Literally ones that were nowhere near as good as the cutting edge stuff that you could sell here. It was a shocking move. But even Nvidia's lesser chips were fast enough to China lap them up. They even found a way to stream together produce more efficient models like Deep Sea. So those sanctions did backfire. At that point, two imperatives burst forward in the new administration. One, the Trump team realized that Nvidia's dumbed down H20 chips were way too powerful for a country is now our serious rival in pretty much everything. If you're putting an economic and effective economic embargo on China, you shouldn't be sending them potato chips, let alone microchips. Second, the Trump team decided that companies like Nvidia and Apple should move their manufacturing back home and do so pronto. Trump time. But everybody knows that America is a very expensive place to manufacture things. If you want to successfully mass produce great products at affordable prices, you need to move your manufacturing overseas. The countries with lower wages or countries with where the government more or less subsidizing manufacturing like China. We practice free market capitalism in this country and the free Market wants you to outsource. If you're a rich developed country and you try to make this up domestically, you end up being like Research in Motion, aka BlackBerry. The Canadian also ran smartphone player, but those are the rules now. So Nvidia commits to producing up to $500 billion AI infrastructure here in the U.S. they already started making Blackwell chips in Arizona. They're going to make supercomputers in Texas. Yes. Now here's where things get interesting. The President is known for being the most serious practitioner of the art of the deal. Correct? You agree with me, right? When we saw that Nvidia was going to make $500 billion with its computers and so much other stuff here, Wall street mistakenly believed that there had to be some sort of of quid pro quo. Nvidia would spend big here to increase its domestic manufacturing footprint and Trump would leave Nvidia loan elsewhere. Nvidia never said there was a quid pro quo though. But how do you do a half a trillion dollars worth of business and not think that you get something out of it? And the answer is you did get something out of it. You get to build in the highest cost country in the world. The one that has few engineers and tough environmental regulations. Doesn't sound like a great deal to me, but it was the only one that seemed to be offered. The same thing happened to Apple. Like so many companies, they realize that they want to dominate the world. They need to dominate China. So Apple takes advantage of situation, builds the vast majority of phones over there. Americans get cheap. Iph we all love, everybody wins. But when tensions rise with China, Apple picks Vietnam to diversify from China. A friendly country, but one that's known also as the transshipper of Chinese goods. At first it seems fine. Then Trump too comes in and their escape valve even gets hit with a huge tariff. So they got huge business in China. Vietnam. No. It's almost like you can run, but you can't hide. Apple's done so much create new jobs in this country, but there are not many manufacturing jobs. Although they have partnered with other companies to do a lot of manufacturing here. Instead, Apple creates service jobs, especially in software. Billions of them. That's a pillar of our economy. But for whatever reason, nobody in Washington seems to care that much about protecting the all important service sector. Bizarrely, with this administration, service jobs don't seem to count. So when Trump comes back in and starts taking tariff, talking tariffs, Apple knows it's in jail. They commit to doing more than $500 billion worth of investments in this country over the next four years. Could there be a quid pro quo? Does Apple get anything for that 500 billion? Yes. It gets a real expensive country to do business in with not enough engineers to go around because our country doesn't produce a lot of them. Last night, not long after we thought that Nvidia could still sell China those age 20 chips, we found out that was over 2 and it had to take a $5.5 billion charge. For all intents and purposes, Nvidia may be done with China. If that's the case, Wall street acted as if they were done with Nvidia and its stock got crashed down almost 7%. Apple's got some sort of stave execution to move out of China. I no longer trust or believe there will be an electronics exception that will give the company anything near near a permanent break. The clock is ticking. I don't know if the Trump administration believes in the greatness of Apple any more than they believe in the greatest of video. It seems to mean nothing to them versus creating a successful Chinese embargo. That's their imperative. It's fine. He's the president U.S. not only that, I keep getting affiliate. The White House doesn't think either company is a good actor no matter what they do. Somehow our leaders seem to think that Jensen Wong and Tim Cook do do in this country. What they do just isn't important. It's the building of the inside of the phone that matters to them. It's like how they don't like the assembly of cars here. They want the engines built here too. Intellectual property is no more important than any other property. Like boardwalks equal to Mediterranean park places border. If you think this is bad policy, I got some news for you, partner. It doesn't matter what you think or what I think. It only matters what they think. Now it's starting to dawn on people that there's no immunity from the President's wrath on the issue. Just like there's no immunity for any law firm that's ever gotten on his bad side or any university for that matter. It's too woke. We don't trade law firms or colleges here. It just doesn't work. I mean, I've tried, but we do trade stocks and we're recognizing a theme here. When a company decides to do business with China, no amount of tribute to the American economy can make up for it, at least in the eyes of the White House. And don't think that going to Vietnam matters. This isn't 2018, this is 2025. Vietnam's apparently not good enough. It's here or nowhere for these guys. So what happens? The NASDAQ inevitably gets crushed with the Nvidia leading the decline because it's been a good supplier to the Chinese. You will hear from others today that it was all about Jay Powell, the Fed chief. They couldn't be more wrong. I mean honestly, just because the guys on TV don't make them right. The battle to contain China has everyone on edge. A quarter of a point here is meaningless versus this stuff, the real stuff, this stuff that's powering, power driving, pile driving, everything here, it's not in Chicago with the Fed chief. As much as I like that guy, the bottom line in this new world, any company that outsourced their manufacturing is a target. And short of moving everything back to America, which is impossible, there may be not be anything they can do to make it up for. Including. Including spending a half a trillion dollars to try to change the brand new equation, the embargo on China. Robert in Alabama. Robert.

[Robert]

Hey Jim, thank you very much for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

My pleasure Robert. What's up?

[Robert]

I want to say one thing and I've got a question for you. You have single handedly changed my life. I was like barely getting by four years ago when I got involved with this and watching your show and joining the investment club. And last year I bought a house in Florida for seven or fifty thousand dollars and paid cash for it all with the money that you helped me make.

[Jim Cramer]

Smoking. Thank you.

[Robert]

Well, you're thankful.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you for telling me that. Because you know I get up at 3:30 in the morning, I'm thinking what the heck am I doing here? I know what I'm doing. I'm playing for Robert. I'm praying for Robert. Alabama by a cash house I makes me a winner.

[Robert]

I think you change a lot of people's lives for the better for sure.

[Jim Cramer]

Well sweet home Alabama here, let's make some money yet.

[Robert]

Okay, my question is do you think AMD is with it going down like it did today, like everything else did? Do you think that is reasonable for just a short term trade?

[Jim Cramer]

No, no, no. I think the word of Lisa Sue. But we're going to try to limit as I said in the club, we are going to try to limit our exposure to what I regard as being a charnel house, a semiconductor charnel house. Not only like the Guernica painting, I like that, the modern museum, it's really terrific. Anyway, thank you for those kind comments. Holy cow. See, I told you I was a good guy looking at the staff, you know, look, I think it's starting to dawn on people that no one is immune from the President's trade agenda, including companies like Nvidia and Apple. That's okay. It's. It's the Great China Trade embargo. After post earnings pop from prologis today, I got the CEO to hear how the logistics industry is shaped by these tariff headlines. 4% yield there, by the way. Then how are companies supposed to give guidance when faced with an uncertain market? I'm running through the latest comments from United Airlines after less on support, those guys are doing well. And later, where do small businesses stand after today's sell off? In the latest trough of turbulence, I got the CEO of HR payroll company Paychex, which is now with Paycorp to learn more. So stay with Kramer.

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[Jim Cramer]

Now. We've got a 10% tariff on exports from the entire world, an effective embargo on most Chinese merchandise. Aside from Electronics. What does it mean for the logistics industry? Take prologis, the real estate investment trust that mainly owns warehouses and fulfillment centers for E commerce. Naturally, the stock's been hammered over the past month and a half, although it's rebounded nicely from slows last week. Now this morning prologue put a slightly better expected quarter, management reiterating their full year forecast. In response, stock rallied nearly 2% on an otherwise horrible day. So could this be an attractive entry point or is it just too much worry about this to get behind it right now? Let's talk with Hamid Moghada. He is the co founder, Chairman, CEO of Largeness. Hamid, welcome back to money.

[Hamid Moghada]

Thank you, Jim. Good to be with.

[Jim Cramer]

I got a theory, sir. When this stock yields 4%, it's an unbelievable opportunity. It has been for as long as I've known you, but this one surprised me. Why would it yield 4% when people need warehouses more than they've ever needed them in the world?

[Hamid Moghada]

I have no idea, Jim. So all I can tell you is that our customers are continuing to lease space. Look, there's going to be some pause in some level of business activity, but the year certainly started stronger than we thought. Even in the last two weeks since the tariff discussions have really accelerated, we've been leasing space again. It's softened a little bit in the last two weeks, but it's not like it's a dead market. So I don't. I never try to understand what the stock market is doing. I try to see what our customers are doing and what the earnings trajectory is and, and I feel comfortable with our business and I know we have the balance sheet to take us through any kind of a downturn. So I'm actually optimistic.

[Jim Cramer]

I don't blame you. I mean if I were a big importer of something and I was afraid that the tariffs are going to go up, I think I would reach out to you personally and say, look, I'm in a jam. I need maybe a six to eight month lease. Can I take a year lease maybe. I don't know whether you're able to prorate or anything like that, but I would call you because I think this is an emergency. Sir, I don't think people realize it's an emergency and they need to speak to someone like you who has been through other emergencies to know what the hell to do.

[Hamid Moghada]

Absolutely. You know, every one of these downturns, whether it's the early days of COVID or the global financial crisis or many others that we've been through during the course of the last 42 years, they're all different. But at the end of the day, life goes on. Because our business is tied to consumption. We don't really care as much about where goods are being made. We really care about where they're being consumed. And where they're being consumed is where people are and where the income and disposable income is. So those things are pretty static. And I'm not trying to be Pollyannish about this. I mean this is certainly the uncertainty is weighing on the market and our customers decisions, but it's not the end of the world.

[Jim Cramer]

No, I mean, not only you're not being Polish, but I'm going to go a step further. There were times when I was concerned about the Southland and I said, wait a second sir, you're in the 80s here. 80%. And you told me not to worry about it. It will come back. It's a vibrant area. And every one of those came back. Even though you could argue that things are wrong with the economy, you know when things are going to bounce back because you've been around.

[Hamid Moghada]

Exactly. By the way, our customers are doing exactly what you just talked about. They are, they were front loading demand for sure, bringing stuff in before the tariffs took place. And Even during this 90 day pause, they're trying to get as much stuff as they can in the country. So we are having a lot of demand for search space and a sector of our customers are third party logistic providers. And that sector particularly, which deals with fluctuations in demand, is very much in the business of leasing space today. Those customers.

[Jim Cramer]

Now I also know when I was talking to people at Amazon, they are more and more convinced that they have to have same day, even if possible same hour. I can't figure out how they could ever do same hour without prologis and where you are.

[Hamid Moghada]

Well, there is a possibility. I mean they could invent a transporter and borrow it from Star Trek and beam it in. But other than that, the, the higher the level of service becomes from today to one day to two hours, the more warehouse and inventory. You need a stage closer to the customer. That's kind of the laws of physics. And we're well positioned for that because we control a lot of real estate around the major metro areas, not just in the US but everywhere in the world. And, and these consumption centers don't move like tariff policies do. They're pretty static.

[Jim Cramer]

Right. What, just tell me, what are you thinking about? Data center build out. You know the, the theory right now on Wall street is that the data center Business is, is slowing down rather dramatically. I can't find that. It's not. I go out on the ground, I don't get that story. But you are in the thick of things. Tell me whether you think it's slowing down dramatically or it's doing just fine.

[Hamid Moghada]

I think it was a bit overheated towards the end of last year, and everybody and their brother was talking about getting into the data center business. So you were seeing a lot of headlines and. But you know, the hyperscalers that are driving most of this, there are five or six of them. I can think of two or three of them that are actually increasing their needs. And I know of one who's spoken about pulling back. And of course, the market focuses on that one that is talked about slowing down. And so we see, yeah, we see. We see the customer interest in data centers going, going strong. And the obvious real issue is procuring the power. Now this, this quarter, we actually got 400. 400 megawatts of extra power. And now we have 3.4 gigawatts of power that is available or will be available shortly, and that's a lot of power. To complete data, our data center activity.

[Jim Cramer]

Would you be then teamed up with like a core weave, a switch? I mean, who does. Who is the actual guy who wants that. That power?

[Hamid Moghada]

Well, the. The hyperscalers directly one that power, who operates the facility for them. They can do it directly, they can do it through a core weave or other providers. But at the end of the day, it's the five or six big hyperscalers that are driving the demand for the large data centers. Now there's a whole other business, which is the cloud business, much closer to the customer, that doesn't consume these hundreds of megawatts. They're more in the 20 and 30. And that business goes on like it always did. That business hasn't died. It just doesn't get talked about quite as much.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I tell you, I actually feel better about the world after talking to you. There's a lot of hysteria. Hysteria doesn't make anybody money. There was hysteria in 2007, 2009. You kept your cool head then. That's why I'm so glad that you're. You're on with us now. I still hope that you'll come on for a couple more quarters. Will you do that for me?

[Hamid Moghada]

Thank you. I will for sure.

[Jim Cramer]

All right. Thank you so much. That's Hamidi. He's the chairman CEO of Prologis, one of my favorite stocks. Literally since 2007 PLD thank you so much. Good to see you.

[Hamid Moghada]

Thank you. Nice to see you.

[Jim Cramer]

Their money is back after the break.

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[Jim Cramer]

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[John Gibson]

So.

[Jim Cramer]

Far this earnings season, the great dilemma is how the heck are you supposed to deal with your guidance? How do you come up with a forecast when you got no idea what the future is going to look like? I don't have it. You don't have it, they don't have it. In just the past few weeks we have had to process the introduction of a sudden mass tariff agenda, putting a 10% base tariff rate on all imported goods. Tariff rates that could be as high as 245% on goods from China, 25% of Canada and Mexico, with some very high tariffs on every other country set to go into effect in less than 90 days. Sure there have been some exemptions and modifications, but the White House keeps talking about throwing in some sectoral tariffs on top of everything else. Even as sectoral is beyond my ken. That makes it impossible for companies to figure out their own costs, especially because we don't know how long the tariffs will be in place or when the next ones might be coming. And that doesn't even get into the ripple effects. We've got retaliatory tariffs from many of our trading partners. China's no longer take delivery of Boeing planes, there's been a sudden drop in tourism. All these bit of mess so aside from purely domestic companies with little economic sensitivity, how on earth can executives give you any kind of forecast for 2025 year? Coming into earnings season, I figured most of them would just simply pull their outlooks. I mean who blame but now that we're almost a week in, we're seeing some pretty creative solutions. The big banks mostly reiterate their full year forecast, but the banks mostly don't offer formal guidance for things like revenue or earnings per share to begin with. Citi does though, and while they Mostly left their full year guidance unchanged. They also said that quote, subject to macro and market conditions, end quote. Well, that's what you should do, right? That should go without saying. So when they do say it, you know, they're not too sure about where the economy's headed at. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that, quote, the economy is facing considerable turbulence, including geopolitics with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and trade wars, ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility. He added, as always, we hope for the best but prepare for the firm for a wide range of scenarios. Basically, they're not ready to cut the guidance, but they feel compelled to throw in some caveats because who that knows? You know what? Hey, they could have just said hope for the best, expect the worst. They didn't do that. Very positive. A number of companies have beaten the estimates for the quarter and chosen to merely maintain their full year forecast, implying that's because of uncertainty from the tariffs. That happened with Prologis, the logistics real estate investment trust whom we just heard from before the break when it reported this morning. Hey, how about Abbott Labs? Yes, Capital Trust name they report a solid quarter this morning. Plus they said they'd previously thought about raising their full year forecast because business was so good but decide not to after the tariffs hit. Stocks shot up 3%, almost 3% today because given even maintaining their guidance is pretty strong sign of confidence in this moment. And watch by the way, weaker dollar going to help them. Keep your heads, keep your head out of the sand. The weaker dollar is good but the most interesting responses we've seen so far came from two large airlines, Delta, United. Delta reported last Thursday turning a small revenue missed solid 7 cent earnings beat off a 39 cent basis. Looking forward though, Delta declined to reaffirm its full year earnings forecast because the environment is too uncertain and they just don't have enough visibility. By the way, the Stock had popped 23% the previous day. After most of the Liberation day tariffs were paused for 90 days. Then it fell over 11% last Thursday because management pulled the guidance. Dell is being conservative here. They know it's impossible to predict the future when the White House can change its aggressive trade policy on a dime. So they wouldn't even try. United though this is really interesting. United Airlines took a very different approach last night. They reported surprisingly strong quarter with in line sales up 5% year over year. 17 cent earnings beat off of 74 cent basis, but the stock was already down from 116 in January to 67 at last night's close. Barely got any credit. Finishing down a penny today. Why? Because United decided to be diligent about its guidance and gave us two sets of forecasts. One for a stable economic environment and went for a recessionary environment. Management says, quote, it's impossible predict this year with any degree of certainty, end quote. So what, they're doing the laying out multiple scenarios instead? I thought this was brilliant. United conceded the macroeconomic environment has gotten softer. But they said the company has been, quote, closely monitoring bookings, end quote. And as of now, booking trends have been stable. If demand basically holds steady here at somewhat low level, then Madison says they can still earn 1150-1350 per share, which was the original earnings forecast from back in January. But as CEO Scott Kirby said on this morning's conference call, quote, we read the same headlines as you and so we think that there's a reasonable chance that bookings could weaken from here, end quote. A recessionary environment. He believes in a recession they can only earn seven to nine bucks per share. I think it's very reasonable the way to do it. But obviously when you lay out a dual track forecast for the year, everyone's going to wonder which of these scenarios do you actually expect? And that was one of the first questions asked of Kirby when he joined CNBC's own Phil LaBeau for an exclusive interview on Squaw Box this morning. I love this. Take a listen to this.

[Hamid Moghada]

I don't know is the. Is the short answer. I mean the economy, we have slowed down and.

[Jim Cramer]

But I think there's a lot, you know, a lot more water to go.

[Hamid Moghada]

Under this bridge before we settle out into a new normal. And so we might and we might not.

[Jim Cramer]

That's why we also gave two different.

[Hamid Moghada]

Ranges, two different scenarios, two different outcomes.

[Jim Cramer]

Now there's an honest fellow, kind of freshly, isn't it? Even if it doesn't give us a ton of clarity on the situation. But then again, why. Why would United Airlines have any clarity when nobody else has? And hey, I'd rather get to forecast and no forecast. He's better person. I am. I would have just said we crushed it this quarter. I hope to do the same. The quarter was so good that he had a right to do that, but he didn't. Good for him. But here's the bottom line. With earnings season in full swing, I'm surprised more companies haven't pulled their full year forecasts like Delta. The most common strategy that has been seen so far is beat maintain from a handful of companies like the banks and a couple of health care companies holding up so far. But so as far as I'm concerned, you just heard my favorite the two track all aboard from United Airlines. Because while things might end up fine, this company will do very badly in a genuine recession. And both those potential outcomes unfortunately are very much on the table. I feel like taking calls. I would actually like to start with Nick in Illinois. Nick, Booyah. Jim. First time, long time. Oh, fantastic. Nick, welcome aboard. What's going on?

[Robert]

I want to get your opinion on Tesla.

[Jim Cramer]

Do you think all the bad news.

[Robert]

Is already priced in. Thanks.

[Jim Cramer]

Do I think all the bad news is already priced in. What a great question. You know what, I'll tell you that with the stock down 40% when this stock's down 50%, that's when I feel because that's at the level where people just say I've had it. So let's take a little bit more, a little bit more pain and then some gain there. All right. With earnings season now in full swing, we're seeing companies handle their full year forecast very differently. My favorite approach so far has been the guidance from United. Since it's accounting for all the uncertainty out there. Makes me feel more certain even if it's uncertain. Mad money has got we got tons ahead. Got exclusively Paychex after its recent all cash acquisition of enterprise software company Pay Core plus from potato chips to work out where our consumers getting tired of sticker shock. I'm looking at the long term for stocks like PepsiCo and Lululemon and all your that's Lululemon and all your calls Rapid Fire, tonight's edition of the lighting round. So stay with Kramer. We haven't seen a lot of mergers in the tough tape but on Monday Paychex, one of the leading payroll processors for small medium sized businesses and a company that you know I like very much big outsourced human capital management division now said it complete its acquisition of rival PayCorp HCM for $4.1 billion. Now this is the first step toward the consolidation industry that I think could certainly use it. Now that the deal is complete, I think Paychex is a much better position to take market share Now. We last caught up with paychecks a few weeks ago in March after the company reported really good quarter. But that was before liberation day through the entire market chaos. With the Paycord deal complete, I want to see how they can navigate this much trickier environment. So let's check in with John Gibson, the President and CEO of Paychecks to get a better read the situation. Mr. Gibson, welcome back to money.

[John Gibson]

Hey Jim, thanks for having back so soon. It's, it's been an eventful three weeks since we spoke.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, a lot of things have changed, but first let's deal with the matter at hand. John, this acquisition I think is brilliant. I have like Paycorp for a long time in part because I like these young companies that have a lot of new good ideas. How about the two teams together? What is going to change if I'm in an account for paychecks?

[John Gibson]

Well, what I, what I would tell you, Jim, this is a major milestone not only for paychecks, but as you said, I think for our industry. This transactionally strengthens our competitive position upmarket. It's going to unlock a lot of new revenue opportunities for us as a company. We're going to be able to use the power of a lot of paycords products and move them into the Paychecks ecosystem. And we're going to be able to take a lot of the power of paychecks and move it into the Paycorp ecosystem systems. We've already started that effective Monday. So I see a lot of opportunities for us to really position Paychecks and Pay Core together. We're stronger together and really continue the strong long term growth and the margin expansion that everyone's accustomed to at paychecks.

[Jim Cramer]

Now Wall street itself is very, I think they're very biased toward enterprise software and not toward old fashioned. Pay Core was exactly what they want. There have been people who've been fighting your stock the whole way for 100 points or some guys fighting your stock, will they not be more inclined to think, oh my God, with Paycard they had the best technology. You marry the best technology with the best client book, you're going to do a lot more business with those clients.

[John Gibson]

Well, I think you're absolutely right, Jim. This acquisition is all about growth. Together we're going to serve nearly 800,000 clients. We're going to be paying 1 in 11 private sector workers in the U.S. this extends our total addressable market by about $10 billion. Closer now to $100 billion market opportunity. For us, it's extending our capabilities up market. We're going to be able to serve larger enterprises. The other thing I don't think people understand is how much even large enterprises rely on HR outsourcing and advisory support. We certainly have been doing a lot of that in our HR outsourcing business and Paychex and what I'm finding, including I just been down in the sales team, the inside sales team here at Paycor, I'm coming Paycor headquarters in Cincinnati. So I've been down in the pit and what I can tell you, they're excited about what they're going to be able to bring to Paycor's clients in terms of our advisory solutions. So I really think we've got the best SaaS technology capability coupled with world class advisory services. And then Jim, you couple that with our huge amounts of data on small medium sized businesses and the AI investments we've been making, I think we are going to be unrivaled in terms of what we can provide from a technology and advisory solutions perspective for clients of all sizes and all types.

[Jim Cramer]

All sizes. That means it's not necessarily your small medium sized business. I look at the, I look at Paycor and I think they never had the ambition to be just small, medium sized. They want to be big and they want to be international. I mean you're ready to do it, to challenge the big guys. You've always been big. But I'm able to challenge the big guys for big accounts and they may not be ready, I got to tell you.

[John Gibson]

Well, look, Jim, I think the Paychecks has the, the capabilities to serve clients of any size, of any needs from a person starting a company with one or two employees all the way up to the largest enterprises. We've put together a portfolio of capabilities. We're committed to investing in our go to market and in innovation, our technology platforms. And I think with the combination of Paychex and Paycor, we now have the critical assets we need to be able to address the market needs that we see out there.

[Jim Cramer]

I said, John, many times when I read about paycorp, they always had the word talent management. Talent. What is talent management?

[John Gibson]

Well, really it's the full spectrum of the ability to not only attract, as you know, that's an area we've been focused on in the small medium sized businesses. They've been doing a lot in the enterprise size. First, first of all, how do we attract, how do we recruit employees in this market? Then they've done a lot in terms of employee engagement, performance management, compensation management, all way the entire employee lifecycle. That's an area we were investing a lot of money in. And we certainly see that we're going to be able to take their talent management capabilities and actually move that into our Paychecks Flex ecosystem. So now our clients are also going to have access to their leading edge Talent management and workforce management. When we think about scheduling and complex scheduling, that particularly happens in large enterprises.

[Jim Cramer]

Excellent, Excellent. Now I want to posit something because I also know you work with Federal Reserve. We have these talents, these tariffs. We have a lot of turmoil. But when it comes to the average worker in this country who is always going to be worried about inflation because of the dinner table issue, that worker is not really feeling exactly the kind of pain that we feeling on Wall street right now. Is there any truth the idea that small, medium sized business may be the winners in this kind of, in this kind of environment?

[John Gibson]

You know Jim, when we talked three weeks ago, I told you that what we saw in small and medium sized businesses was a combination optimism and uncertainty at the same time. I think it's fair to say there's a little more uncertainty in the market. But I would tell you from a. Take the emotions aside, we talked about this last time. When I look at the data, the data continues to say we have very.

[Jim Cramer]

I.

[John Gibson]

When you and I talked, I told you we had our jobs report. I told you I thought you're going to see good job numbers. You saw good job numbers. I told you we were seeing moderating wage inflation. I thought inflation was going. Why did the inflation numbers come back? When you look at the data right now, now I'm looking at some of our leading indicators and what I would tell you is I'm not seeing any signs of a recession. I'm not seeing any movement at this time. It's almost, Jim, as if people are frozen a little bit. And I think they're trying to figure out what exactly is going on, what is the strategy here. And I think the more we can do to have a clear path to more stability both in terms of the tax policies. I think that's real important to small business owners. But I step back and say this, that I said all the time, small business owners are extremely resilient. They face a lot. They don't have a lot of control of their macro environment. And so they are very adapt at changing with the times. And I think what you're going to see is small businesses will continue to adapt regardless of what happens in the future. And I really have a lot of confidence in small mid sized businesses to really lead the way. We do need more certainty, I think in terms of where we are going with the tariff policy.

[Jim Cramer]

Do people ask you is my Social Security going to be okay? Is my Medicare going to be okay? My Medicaid, are they asking existential questions like that because of all the, all the stuff coming out of Washington, we're.

[John Gibson]

Not getting, we're not getting a lot of those type of questions at that point in time. You know, one of the things we watch a lot is our 401k business. I've not seen a lot of hardship withdrawals. I would tell you small, medium sized business workers are in reasonably good shape based upon the data. I see. I don't see any major deterioration now. We're only about three weeks into this higher level of uncertainty. I'm going to be anxious to watch what I see as April develops and May develops and we roll into, into June and we begin to see more what the administration has in mind in terms of resolving some of the tariff negotiations they've got going on and how they're going to deal with the China situation.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I sure hope they talk to you because we don't want the backbone of America to be upset by all this stuff. And I know that you have more of a pulse about small, medium sized business than anyone in Washington. And it's really important for us, which is why also, besides the congratulations, paycorp, it was great to have you back on the show so quickly. John Gibson, president and CEO of Paychex. Thank you, John.

[John Gibson]

Thank you, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Absolutely may have money to be back here for the break. It is time, it's time for the light rail cruise. Remember that's Raphael and Spokane, your name is. Songs started bye bye sells since we go to my stamps and grab you blade it sound and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready ski daddy? Time for the lightning round Cruisers. We have a star with Mark in Texas. Mark.

[Robert]

Hey Jim, how you doing?

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah from South Texas. Good to have you on the show. Mark, what's going on?

[Hamid Moghada]

Hey, I'm calling tonight about a, about.

[Jim Cramer]

Afg, Ericin Financial Group. Oh, you know what, to the lender family, I've always liked that stock and I really like the insurers. Your Travelers had a nice number. Let's go to Brady in Florida. Brady.

[Robert]

All right, Jim, I've got an interesting question and I want to start a movement together.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, Sure.

[Robert]

A few months ago, President Trump said, how many Chevrolets or Fords do you see in the middle of Munich? So after the tariff storm, do you believe that this is a hint that American car companies such as Ford will increase exports and thereby increasing revenue and stock price?

[Jim Cramer]

No, not a chance. Hey, they gotta make the garages bigger in Europe. I've been thinking about that. Now listen to me on this, okay? Ford is epoxy to $9.40. You can't pull that thing off a 940, but that's good because it's not 840. Let's go to Drew in North Carolina. Drew. Jim, you changed my life too. Oh yeah. What do you think about nxp? Nxp? It's a semiconductor company. It's closely connected with autos, which means it's a semiconductor company. Company that I do not want to own. Let's go to Steve in Illinois. Steve. Hello Jim. I'm a long time fan.

[Robert]

Been watching for decades. Very interested in Newt, N E W.

[Jim Cramer]

T. Barry Sloan, man. Very Sloan. Oh man. Can you believe we gotta do work on Bear? Okay, I gotta come back on that one. Bear's clever fella. So we gotta do work on that Newton. At least I learned how to spell. I pronounced it correctly. I thought it was Newton code. There we go. That shows you my lack of knowledge. Let's go to Gus in Utah. Gus, Doing my best.

[Robert]

First long time. I wanted to have your opinion on fsk.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, it's this. But it's also this. It's this and it's that. I'll tell you why. Because it's a business development company and those have high yields and I don't want to trust them because they take so much leverage and they do all the things that we don't do when it comes to mad money and that land up good other landing round. Even before the trade war, we already had real problems in this country and it's a problem of high price. And I'm telling you so long sustainable. You keep hearing the companies will have to raise price of tariffs. That's wrong. What they really need to do is cut prices or their stuff isn't going to move off the shelves. And these companies have to stop pretending they can make it all up by endlessly cutting costs. Things are just too expensive right now. And they're about to get even more expensive with the tariffs. But a lot of companies just aren't ready. They want to keep playing the same old, same old. Cutting costs, keeping gross margins up even with sales slowing. No day goes by without signs of this. When we read a PepsiCo downgrade yesterday and it talks about how the price of potato chips have gotten too expensive, well, you can't even laugh. The price of a 1 ounce bag of Frito Lake chips has increased by 66% from 2020 to today according to multiple surveys online. I think it must have hit a tipping point where people are just fed up. Especially when Published reports show that the chip count has dropped from 18 down to 14 or 15 per bag. So what can PepsiCo do? Well, it's been trying to sell different form factors. That apparently hasn't worked. Wrench costs out wherever it can. While they can probably find more ways to save money because they're Jesus at it, at some point you run out of cost cut. To me the answer is quite obvious. Consumer product companies simply have to take the hit. They got to lower the prices. Of course if they take the hit, then indeed the gross margins go down. No company ever wants that to happen. Once the gross margins come down, they fear their earnings will come down big. And at that point only a sizable dividend can prevent your share price from falling to the floor. I got to tell you guys, it is worth it. This incremental game of cuts is giving you a lower stock price anyway. Every day it is time to rip the darn band aid. Another consider the terrible numbers from the support division of LVMH. The weakness came from the United States. Interesting. US 4 will soon be in 1100 Kohl's locations as a store than a store and Kohl's is hanging on by his fingernails. Do you think Sephora can keep prices high? I think it's got to roll back some of those price increases put through over the last few years. But then critics say see Sephora's maxed out and parent company lvmh. The stock will get it. I don't care. It's another one that won't cut and it will lose for not cutting. And support isn't the only one LVMH brand that has to cut. I mean these guys also make this expensive cognac called Hennessy. Judging by the double digit decline in sales, there is no way the Hennessy can keep charging these high prices. The premium isn't worth it. Premiumization is over in this country. Now I can see them come with a new cheaper kind of cognac. Maybe stabilize some growth. Well, but it won't help their gross margins. They need to cut the price of Hennessy next. I thought that Lululemon stock might be able to stabilize, but I just don't know if it can. Why? Because it stuff costs too much versus the other guys. Same with our restoration hardware. Now their furnishings are breathtaking but the tariffs going to force them to raise prices. Make a lot of stuff in Vietnam probably substantially. And that's real bad because these prices are already too high. You know what they have to do? Cut price. Of course companies have been managing inflation for years now. And I think they've done a pretty good job taking place, taking dribs and drabs, a little bit of pricing here and there, a couple of pennies here, maybe a couple of times this year. But even late last year we knew that the consumer was getting fed up with high prices. Now we have all the tariffs to deal with and I don't know retail. I don't think retail is ready for what's about to occur. I don't know the supermarkets are ready for about what's going to occur. The customers demand lower prices, but the government's basically forcing them to raise prices to cover the cost of the tariffs. They've got to eat it. I don't know which companies will break the gross margin buck first, but I do know this. It will happen. It will happen in 2025 and they're going to do the eating. There just aren't enough costs left for them to cut. They've trimmed most of the fat now what's left is flesh and bone. When these retail gross margins finally start coming down, maybe then their stocks can at last bottom, but until then is indeed death by a thousand cuts. There's only one choice. Merge. That's what they really have to do. When companies merge, that creates new cost cutting opportunities, which is exactly what can prevent the margins from getting annihilated here. Otherwise, be prepared because when potato chips are too expensive, everything's too expensive, Alex said. As always, bull market summer problems just for you Radio Man Money. I'm Drew Graber. I will see you tomorrow.

[Dogtopia Representative]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer For 140 years, MultiCare has been in Washington prioritizing long term solutions, partnering with local communities and expanding access to care. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail].