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Jim Cramer (1:19)
I heard that today's rally was just a bear market rally. Okay, There's a phony spike in the market will go right back down the moment the President posts that there'll be no compromise on tariffs. Who knows, maybe Fed chief Jay Powell should be deported. We keep hearing that The Dow gained 1017 points as we climbed 2.5%. Nasdaq jumped 2.7% on a bogus set of facts about a possible deal with China. A deal doesn't exist. But then right after the close we get incredible news that is sure to drive this market higher. The President said he has no intention of firing Fed chief Jay Powell. Which by the way was the proximate cause of yesterday's collapse. Never did, never will. Trump said about a prospective firing. Yes, he said he wants Trump to more be more active about lowering interest rates. But so everybody else. So now we have to ask ourselves can we still call this a rally in a bear market? No, I think it's got to be at least something bigger. Nevertheless, we have to ask ourselves a pals buyer now that it's off the table, what can take us higher still after what we have to expect is a nice follow through rally tomorrow, maybe tomorrow morning. First, of course it's entirely possible to resume the decline after a short sharp spurt. Higher on the welcome news of Powell staying. That's what happened last time after we heard that there'd be a three month pause on most of the tariffs. I don't deny it's a possibility, very real possibility, because it happened before, it was a fairly good, possibly could happen again and we might just go back down. Second, though, there's a great misunderstanding about how real recoveries get started. They always start as bear market rallies, for heaven's sake. They're rarely based on hard facts. There's usually tremendous skepticism toward these advances because of previous failures that, that only the most bold or the most foolish catch the beginning of. Now look, just because the President doesn't want a constitutional crisis and is going to keep Powell doesn't mean we have more to go on. For example, there's been no sign of change from the administration on the trade wars. I mean, he's talking about maybe we don't have zero, maybe 45. I mean, he's not giving us anything beyond the amorphous closed door statement attributed to Treasury Secretary Besson that the China tensions are not sustainable. Well, that seemed almost cheesy in his prison. But again, when you get this kind of rally, it doesn't happen because someone gave you the green light to start buying. You don't get a statement from the President, the trade war is over and everything's back to normal. By the time there's definitive proof. Usually the rally has been going on for a while. Usually you've missed the rally. So what could happen? Positively. Again, this is still most likely a bear market rally, one that could be rolled back at any moment. There's still plenty that's wrong. But you know what, there have been many rallies that have started like this. After all, we've gone up 38,000 points as I first bought stocks 45 years ago. And during that time we've had a bunch of bear markets that ended on nothing but a whimper or a whimper that only led to something bigger for graduating into a full blown rally. Let's go over some of the clues to the next move because I think history is instructive. First, we've seen the headline in the Journal, Dow headed for worst April since 1932 as investors send no Confidence signal. Now can we agree that as terrible as things may be, it's a long shot to beat the Great Depression. Here we put tariffs on countries that are higher than the tariffs that partially led to the Great Depression, but we had 23% unemployment in 1932. And by the way you pseudo historians out there, the market bottomed in the summer of 1932. So if you're going to start drawing comparisons. I mean, we could be headed for a bottom now, even as it's covered with silt and can't be seen. Second, it's entirely possible that one of our trading partners actually blinks. Where is it written that every country on earth, even with Tutu, will defy the President of the United States? Don't you think someone cares? What happens If India orders 40 Boeing planes on top of those rumored fighter jets from Lockheed? What if Korea agrees to take only our natural gas and all of it? What if NATO decided to take every missile that RTX makes? Or some bigger European countries buy RTX's missiles and donate them to Ukraine, which could be hapless without them. What if Germany announces it will close several of those gigantic Mexican car plants and open new ones in specially designed American industrial zones in Pacific red states that have higher unemployment? How about if Japan says it's totally agrees with President Trump and is willing to break down right now, right now, this minute for Tokyo Electron super plant in Dothan, Alabama, or perhaps Shreveport, Louisiana? I don't think any of these particularly likely, but it only takes one. One of them changes the whole game and will be this, not that. Like with the law firms. Trump boy needs to roll one, roll one, roll them all. Third, we get actually some soft numbers, economic numbers that would make it much easier the Federal Reserve to, you know, cut rates. Weak unemployment, weak employment. Hey, how about lower car prices? Stranger things have happened. Powell, take action. Fourth, say President Xi invites someone to China. Maybe Treasury Secretary Besson, maybe Elon Musk, I don't know. Tesla quarter here, there. Okay, I got that out of the way. And the situation is so out of control that maybe he says, you know what? Instead of this, let's go for this, okay? Because we're obviously at this point headed for some sort of confrontation and it won't be about trade. Is this possible? Musk has been there aplenty. He can be. Look, he can ask about Tesla and then come back with something positive about trade. If China is willing to come to the table, it's important that President Trump not gloat. We can't have that. You got to save. Got to save face. Got to China, save face. I mean, it would be hugely positive for China to get rid of these tariffs. I'm sanctioning the President to say to Xi that he has finally chosen to get breaded up, but that's about as outrageous as I'm willing to accept. I mean, Musk can be the man to get it done, though. I mean, who doesn't want to be the man? I want to be the man. Fifth, in the next 30 days, we could see five big mergers and five big IPOs, because this dry spill has now gotten ridiculous. In every case, the source have come to their senses and recognize that they aren't going to get what they want. Okay, they can't always get what they want, but they can get what they need. Totally reasonable. Hey, we just need five of each. Okay. I mean, that would do it. I'm telling you, that would do it. Business as usual. 6. Perhaps oil truly does crash. Why not? Who's to say can hang on at this level? The President can threaten to do something to the major Middle east producers that we don't even know. And next thing you know, we're flooding the world with crude and it drops to 30. At 30, the Fed has the flexibility to cut rates. And now the Powell's back in the President's good graces. I mean, wow. You know what? He probably wants to do it. I think that the long rates set by the bond market will go down if the short rates get cut, if oil collapses. Okay? Now, notice I'm not even calling for a return of the Magic 7 remake. I'm not saying the data center is alive and well. I'm not saying that Tesla should be up 11 or 12. And it is. I'm not going for TEMU to start advertising again. I'm not asking for ByteDance to be sold to President Trump so he can dole it out to followers of True Social. None of that has to happen for this market to start running. Not one bit. But the bottom line. I just gave you six potential positives, and you only need one of them for everything to start getting rolling. And this will be counted as a real rally and no longer dismissed. As you know, it was all day that. You heard it. You heard it, you heard it. I kept saying to my guys, hey. I was saying, hey, come on. Dylan is. I bet they could be real. And it's real. What are the chances that all six of my ideas go wrong? Inconceivable. Sooner or later, somebody's got to blink. All right, doesn't matter who. And when that happens, we'll be in much better shape. And you're going to be hearing not this, but this. Philip in New York. Philip.
