Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jim Cramer dives deep into the soaring Apple rally, the dynamics behind American Express’s exceptional quarter, speculative excesses in the 2025 market, and highlights from the beauty retailer Ulta's turnaround. Cramer’s signature “Lightning Round” returns with rapid-fire stock takes from listeners. Throughout, he champions long-term investing in great companies and warns against getting caught up in wild speculative manias.

Main Theme

Guiding Listeners through Market Euphoria: Cramer unpacks why sticking with top-tier stocks like Apple pays off, critiques the dangers of trading hype-driven speculative assets, dissects key quarterly results such as those from American Express, and shares his thoughts on sector standouts like Ulta Beauty. He punctuates with memorable “own, don’t trade” mantras, a warning shaped by lessons from the 2000 dot-com crash.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Apple’s Monster Rally & Lessons in Ownership

(01:23 – 10:43)

• Why Cramer Always Says "Own Apple, Don’t Trade It":

  • Apple surged on the back of bullish analyst reports, helping buoy the entire market.
  • The iPhone 17 series, especially the light “iPhone Air,” is proving to be a massive hit.
  • Cramer reminds listeners that “you will never catch these big moves like today entirely unexpected if you’re constantly flitting in and out, you will be selling at the bottom and buying at the top.” (02:45)

• Beating the Bears:

  • Negative headlines around Apple (e.g., programmer departures, worries about weak China sales, and tariffs) were largely “canards… hatched by people who were unwitting useful idiots for the short sellers.” (05:52)
  • Cramer attributes missing the rally to getting “blinded by the negativity that Wall Street keeps pumping out about this company.” (07:50)

• Quotes from Analysts:

  • Melissa Righteous (Amelius): “Apple is on a mission to silence its critics. We see upside in sales in China in the calendar year 2026 and momentum in new models overall.” (06:11)
  • Evercore, Loop: Both predict services revenue growth and a possible foldable phone next year.

• Apple's Unique Industry Leverage:

  • The strength of Apple's installed base (1.5 billion devices) gives it unmatched economic power, e.g., Google paying over $20B annually to be the default search engine.
  • Cramer speculates that in the AI arms race, Apple could again monetize its platform by letting AI chatbot providers bid for default placement, turning the tables: “Talk about fabulous gross margins.” (09:35)

• Lesson for Investors:

  • The real winners are steady owners, not traders. “If you use common sense… then you had everything you needed to know why you should own, not trade, Apple.” (10:32)

2. American Express: Breaking the Pattern

(15:04 – 21:22)

• A Rare Post-Earnings Rally for Amex:

  • Unlike the usual pattern where “the stock tends to sell off… even when the numbers are excellent,” this quarter’s huge beat sent shares up 7.3%. (15:13)
  • Revenue up 11%; EPS of $4.14 (19% YoY growth).

• Demographic Strength:

  • Spending growth was highest among Gen Z (+39%) and Millennials (+12%).

• Credit Quality & Premium Customer Base:

  • Credit problems seen at other banks aren't materializing at Amex.
  • “The percent of card members, loans and receivables that are 30+ days past due remain at just 1.3%... for the second consecutive quarter, Amex’s net write-off rate actually ticked lower to 1.9%.” (16:30)

• The Platinum Card Refresh:

  • CEO Steve Squeri announced, “new Platinum account acquisitions are running at twice the level before the refresh. Wow.” (18:34)

• Competition & Strategic Positioning:

  • Despite heavy competition from J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, et al., Amex’s new card and rewards resonate better with wealthy customers.
  • “If you were worried about the competition, this quarter was definitive proof that there’s nothing for American Express to be afraid of.” (19:48)

3. Market Mania, Risk Perception & Flight to Safety

(21:56 – 34:59)

• Speculative Euphoria:

  • Cramer critiques “incredibly high risk stocks trading at levels that are borderline impossible to justify,” such as nuclear power, quantum computing, or rare earths.
  • “This is a parabola. You know I hate parabolas.” (22:49)

• Shift in Safety Preferences:

  • Contrary to COVID-era preference for treasuries, investors now “rush to gold as a flight to safety,” but Cramer and guest technical analyst Carley Garner argue this is misguided trend-chasing.

• Charts and Contrarian Signals ([Carly Garner Segment]):

  • Market obsession with “the trend is your friend” has left diversified portfolios in the dust.

  • Gold is massively overbought, and treasury yields are poised for a move lower; a contrarian signal to move toward bonds when the bubble pops:

    • “Garner says a move to 3.25% appears quite likely now, and a run down to the 2 to 1.5% level is a real possibility.” (30:34)

  • Key Takeaway:

    • “The bottom line: When the speculative bubble bursts, she’s betting people go back to long term Treasuries.” (33:45)

4. Ulta Beauty’s Turnaround and Sector Resilience

(35:00 – 41:30)

• Ulta’s Recovery Path:

  • After a 46% plunge post-2023, Ulta rebounded 70% from its lows, led by new CEO Keisha Steelman.
  • “When the company reported mid-March, results were solid, a new narrative took hold, allowing the stock to jump more than 13% in a single day.” (36:12)

• Growth Drivers:

  • Expansion of exclusive brands and loyalty program—now 45.8 million members, accounting for 95% of sales.
  • “Ulta’s also making steady progress on… expanding businesses that are additive to earnings,” including international expansion and entering the Middle East and Mexico.
  • The end of the Target partnership is seen as a positive due to cannibalization concerns.

• Quoting Management:

  • “Consumers, quote, continue to prudently manage their day to day spending, and are cognizant of higher prices caused by tariffs, [but] seem to be, quote, prioritizing their beauty regimens.” (40:32)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jim Cramer:

  • “You will never catch these big moves like today entirely unexpected if you’re constantly flitting in and out, you will be selling at the bottom and buying at the top.” (02:45)
  • “Most were hatched by people who were unwitting useful idiots for the short sellers.” (05:52)
  • “The owners are the ones who got to participate in today’s rally.” (10:32)
  • “You haven’t actually made any money until you take something off the table.” (End, 45:44)
  • “These are the most overvalued stocks since the E-Commerce players in the spring of 2000.” (45:50)

• Analyst Melissa Righteous (Amelius):

  • “While the media is obsessed with AI talent departures and focus on delays, Apple could have the last laugh, as the new Siri could be launched in March…” (06:35)

• Listener Callers:

  • Bill from Massachusetts: “Three years ago I got $6,000 worth of Nvidia. Now it’s in the six figures… I 95% of my whole 401k is because of Nvidia and Jensen.” (34:20)

Lightning Round Highlights

(41:40 – End)

• Adobe: Facing powerful competition, “doesn’t make me want to pull the trigger.”
• Disney: Positive on management changes, expects a move toward $120 but will reassess then.
• Ulta: “I don’t blame anybody who wants to buy some Ulta stock given the sharp pullback we’ve seen this month.”
• Speculative names (e.g., Oklo/Oklahoma, Recursion): “Parabolic moves are very, very suspect. I think you should ring the register.” (Lightning Round, ~42:50)
• Neo (China EV): “Probably goes to 10, then you have to sell it.” (Lightning Round, near end)

Warnings from Cramer: Lessons from 2000

• On Speculative Excess:
  • “Why most of this market is fairly priced on an earnings basis. There’s a cohort of speculative stocks connected [to] nuclear power, rare earths, quantum computing, crypto money… they’ve gone up way too much.” (~45:00)
  • Urges listeners to take profits before lock-up expirations lead to massive insider selling, referencing his own calls on the dot-com bust.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Apple: “Own, Don’t Trade It” – (01:23 – 10:43)
• American Express Earnings Analysis – (15:04 – 21:22)
• Market Mania & Flight to Safety/Gold vs. Treasuries – (21:56 – 34:59)
• Ulta Beauty Breakdown – (35:00 – 41:30)
• Lightning Round – (41:40 – End)

Tone & Style

Cramer's signature high-energy, direct, and unvarnished language shapes the discussion. He delivers clear, actionable opinions, blends humor (“this is Oklo, also known as Oklahoma…”), and tells stories drawn from decades on Wall Street. He encourages careful, common-sense investing and calls out hype and fear mongering in traditional Cramer style.

Final Takeaway

Stay grounded amid market euphoria. Own great companies with staying power—don’t get blinded by negative headlines or sucked into speculative bubbles. Make money by investing, not by trading, and remember: “You haven’t actually made any money until you take something off the table.”