Jim Cramer (3:06)
Nvidia reported astonishing sales number, earnings number, gross margin, customers. Fantastic. And what happened? The stock pull up anyway, but not before it soared higher. Both last night and this morning, Nvidia stock opened at 195. That was up about 8 from yesterday, but then close at 180. A hideous swing that obliterated those who bought the opening. And a lot of people did. The volume was high. Why do I keep stressing this huge intraday swing stuff? Okay, let's get technical for a second. When you get that pattern to huge up opening and then the whole market craters, including your stock professionals associate that with a very nasty moment. If your company can deliver the best quarter possible and your stock finishes the session down anyway, well, you can expect more pain. Why not? Because if you can't rally on the greatest news possible, what else can make it move back up? Sure, it might not play out that way this time, but pattern recognition matters. Right now the pattern is terrible. I don't sugarcoat this stuff and I say that no, not changing my stance. I think you need to own in video, not trade it. But I understand the pain. There's been so much pain since it was a two. Let me tell you what you're supposed to do when you see this kind of pattern. You have to do a check down. Just like a quarterback in the NFL looking his receivers first. You asked did you miss anything within video that makes this quarter look a lot worse than it did at first glance? I read the conference call once, spoke to the company, read the conference call again, went to dinner with friends and then read the call a third time with some analysts notes. I'm confident I missed nothing. Demand for the chips is extraordinary. Gross margins pandas their customers, unlike what's constantly being said by the nattering nabobs of negativity, can't get enough of Nvidia's chips. And they're making a lot of money with them. They, the customers, I'm going to repeat that, are making excellent money with these chips, including some use cases where matter. As Jensen Wong, the CEO was explaining to marginal earnings gains. Second, you have to ask if there was anything in the cohort away from video that could explain the weakness of Nvidia. You have to survey the landscape to see what would explain the weakness for that. What I like to do is look at all the intraday charts of various stocks overlaid upon the stock of Nvidia. Here's what I found. A profound pronounced set of declines in the most elemental tech stocks. The basic semiconductors which have been rallying like crazy for weeks. Micron, Sanders, Western Digital, all these are storage place all computer companies that have been going parabolic for months now. They not Nvidia, had become the momentum players. Earlier this week a Morgan Stanley analysts used the dreaded term supercycle which almost invariably leads to a top when you hear it. As was the case with the last two supercycles that were called the Frackinson Supercycle and the Coal Supercycle. Both turn out to be long term tops heights that were never ever seen again. And then a crash. Sure enough, these storage stocks have been cratering for the last few days. Almost on cue with the ill fated ill advised supercyclical. These storage players, like fracking, sand and coal are commodities. Right now they're in shortage mode because they can't make enough storage to meet the demand. I'm sure we'll discover that the shortage was just alleviated somehow. We don't know, perhaps by some semiconductor capital equipment surge and the prices have started moving back to equilibrium. Equilibrium means lower prices. What else? Again, sticking with the concern that the biggest capitalization stock in the universe might be behind today's reversal. I noticed that one of the most closely correlated situations to invidious trading of all things, is crypto, especially Bitcoin. There are a host of incredibly speculative ways to bet on bitcoin borrow money ways that could be catastrophic on a breakdown for some bitcoin vehicles that were weeded in video because there's a lot of shareholder overlap. Sure enough, there's strategy, formerly microstrategy and agglomeration of crypto that public documents indicate owns about 3% of all bitcoin, a huge holding and finances that investment. More than $8 billion in debt. That's an insane amount of risk. JP Morgan this morning talked about how strategy may get booted from some indices. Because it's basically just a scheme though Bitcoin, not a real operating company the piece didn't suggest would happen soon, maybe by the middle of January. But man, there's a lot of money in index funds. And the indices include strategy. The pressure on strategy from these automatic sellers could be disastrous. You kick something out of the index like that, then the index money automatically departs. One more reason why you cannot afford to own that stock and I've been saying that and saying that it's not just strategy. There are so many bitcoin companies out there and they all trade with a commodity which broke down below the critical 90,000 level like a machete through butter. I am watching this. Bitcoin Immersion Technologies, a company involved in bitcoin hosting mining, it was down 10.83% today. Everyone seems to be holding on for dear life. And you know what happens when you do that. Bitcoin can lead tech down. Is that correlated because of the lever leverage state of the players involved? They're your nemesis. When bitcoin collapses, the people who bought it with borrowed money need to sell their holdings in order to raise money. And that often includes stocks like Nvidia. That in the 2x and 3x Nvidia junk paying havoc with Nvidia stock, not the. It's not the company itself. Fifth, you have to ask if there's anything totally away from video and tech that could be hurting things. The answer is pretty simple. The economy may be showing too much life. It looks like too many jobs are being created. The employment numbers are still pretty hopeless in terms terms of the veracity. But we got a string of strong numbers this morning and some people are saying that means no rate cuts this year. Lots of stocks need rate cuts. The main ones are the most speculative ones. Quantum computing stocks, alternative energy stocks, critical mining stocks, long shot nuclear stocks, extremely lever data center stocks without any earnings. Bitcoin derivatives, they're all down big. I've made it very clear to you that until we get a washout in these stocks, until they return to earth, it will be very hard for anything to stabilize, particularly that group. And they are mostly certainly returning to earth. It won't be in a straight line and there'll be plenty of opportunities still to get out when the defenders make the rounds on tv, which they always do. But I think that's all she wrote for the hype perspective of groups. As I've said to you over and over and over again, the year of magical investing is over. So where do I come out? I think you have to wait for a day before you make any decisions to buy. Even after the Shelley, we are still not oversold. But you should identify what you like tonight as we are doing for the Chapel Trust and be ready for tomorrow because we will definitely see bargains developing. I see recession stocks like Consumer Package, Good Place are getting some love. However, I like to buy them when they're hated, not love. And the Magnificent Seven don't look all that magnificent at least when it comes to stocks. That smells like opportunity to be bottom line. I want to see what holds tomorrow. Stocks that have come down too far too fast with the expectations too low, the opportunities too great. Those are the ones I'm looking to buy on wheat is especially the high quality tax that are now being thrown away with the bitcoin Bathwater Scott in South Carolina.