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At U.S. bank, when we say we're in it with you, we mean it. Not just for the good stuff, the grand openings and celebrations, although those are pretty great. But for all the hard work it took to get there, the fine tuning of goals, the managing of cash and workflows, and decision making, we're in to help you through all of it. Because together we're proving day in and day out that there is nothing as powerful as the power of us. Visit usbank.com to get started today. Equal Housing Lender Member FDIC Copyright 2024 U.S. bank what's your boldest, truly ambitious life goal? Everyone has one and everyone deserves a way to get there. That's why State street offers a wide variety of ETFs to give all investors access to the market and the chance to reach their goals. Like with DIA, where you get 30 US blue chip stocks in a single trade. Wherever you're heading, getting there starts here with State Street. Before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Visit ssga.com for perspectives containing this and other information. Read it carefully. DIA Subject to risks similar to those of stocks all ATs are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal Alps Distributors Inc. Distributor.
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My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. I'll be like friends. I'm just trying to make you extra money. My job is not just to entertain, but to explain. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me. Chip Kramer. The age of antitrust tyranny is over. In its place, we could be looking at four years of relatively unfettered capitalism, likely with higher stock prices, especially for the Magnificent Seven. It's why the Nasdaq crossed 20,000 for the first time today, up 1.7%. Record high Dow dip 99 points s and gain.82% today is indeed a very big day. It's a celebration salvation based on the replacement of big corporate nemesis Lina Khan, the current FTC head, by a pro corporate regulator, Andrew Ferguson. Bye bye. He's also on the on the ftc. We know what he's done. He's pro business. It's fabulous news for the tech titans because the hectoring, the threats, the endless passive litigation, maybe they will soon be over. Hence the NASDAQ hoopla. The change that the FTC as well as the ship leadership at the antitrust division of the Justice Department make me feel that we have seen the high tide government interference for the companies we love House of Pleasure. But now we have to ask ourselves specifically what's driving the individual Mag 7 stocks to these record highs beyond just the changes in government first. People always dumbfounded these stocks and keep going up, you hear right there in disbelief that it can happen again and again. Me, on the other hand, I'm in disbelief that people still don't get it. They know nothing. These companies do amazing things. They keep changing, they keep inventing. They have all the money in the world which allows them to hire the smartest people on earth. They are sovereign states with better balance sheets than any country. Let's take them one by one. Let's talk about which was up nicely earlier today before pulling back a close. Today Apple announced the release of iOS 18.2, which they say has a brand new set of of Apple intelligence features, including ChatGPT Image Playground, used to create funny Gen Mojis. We tested Gen Mojis by giving me my old hair back, but we couldn't do it. Son of a.
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What?
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I told you to cut that. All right. Made us laugh. It's making you laugh. It's making everybody laugh. Hey, yeah, they're laughing at me. But I said, oh, you know what? I can handle that. Because it doesn't. It doesn't. Not one bit. I'm cool with it. Oh. Then we asked Siri something. We said, what would you do with a family of four and NYC in the winter? It replied, I'll need to use ChatGPT to write that. Should I. Go ahead. That's nice. We said yes. And then it gave us five terrific ideas emphasizing thank God they took that down, emphasizing the winner aspect of this great city. I thought they were great ideas, coherent, cogent. Pretty much what I. It's kind of what I thought. As someone who's lived here for 40 years, I got a lot of those ideas. But then there were others that were better, succinct, terrific. Tim Cook. Great job. I loved it. But there might be something else at work behind Apple's recent strength. We're likely seeing the end of the Biden administration's hairbrand attempt to hobble Apple just like Kathy Bates hobble James Khan and Kramer fade Misery. One of Stephen King's best, by the way. Although that particular scene is still a little difficult to watch. Back on March 21st, the Justice Department sued Apple for monopolizing the high end smartphone market. In fact, they invented a whole new category of smartphone just to make this argument. Justice went after Apple for charging more because justice charged. Well, you know, whatever. They forgot that you can get it mostly from Verizon. I'm tired of the Andy Williams song already, okay? Apple exerted pressure everywhere, suppressing everything. And everyone that competed against him. Says justice left out the investigation. We can't live without these darn phones, for heaven's sake, because they're so good. They're great. And hey, if you don't like it online, just go buy a Samsung. Go ahead, make my day. I think common sense will take over under Trump's Justice Department, which seems far more concerned with ideological issues involving free speech. Apple, Apple be fine under that because they're not a media platform. That's why the stock can keep rallying. It's yet another reason why Apple's given, you get this, a 250,908% gain since coming public 44 years ago. Take that, S and P. Next. Amazon just won't quit. Up five bucks today. And this time, it's all about President Elect Trump's pick for the FTC chair, Ferguson. He'll be replacing Khan, who, as I mentioned, was relentless in her attempts to smash Amazon. But she hate Amazon because she thinks it's too powerful. As she put it. Quote, Amazon's actions allowed to stop rivals and sellers from lowering prices, degrade quality for shoppers, overcharge sellers, stifle innovation, and prevent rivals from fairly competing against Amazon. What's missing? Help with the fact that Amazon prime is the greatest bargain in the world and it's managed to lower prices for 200 million users. But if you're a merchant, you don't like their platform, go just go to Shopify, for heaven's sake. It's only Amazon sending the mafia to put its rivals out of business. It's just great at what it does. How could the FTC be so out of step with America? How could it be? How could it be so ideological, so not respectful of Amazon or its reputation, of the reputation of its own organization? Amazon, by the way, is up 306,913% since it came public on May 15th of 1997. You know that doesn't happen if you're a relentless bad actor like the FTC would have you believe. Alphabet may solve a problem. The authorities, not because they're so good, but because some members of the Trump team really do believe that Alphabet is trying to brainwash us with liberal ideology. That said, the Biden just department has been trying to dismantle this business and I bet they no longer going to do that under Trump. Plus with GM self driving business shutting down, Alphabet Waymo is down a competitor. I think that greatly boosts the value of Waymo if Alphabet ever wants to spin it off. Still one more reason why the stock has rallied 9,086% since it came public August 19, 2004. Matter Platforms. It's up huge now. Some of that's because matters multi year hounding by the FTC is now over even if the original investigation started during the Trump first term. On November 13th of this year a federal judge ruled that the case can go forward. The market's breathing a sigh of relief because it's going to go forward under Andrew Ferguson Atlanta Khan that makes me feel that things will work out and be okay for Metta. Another reason why Meta stock is now up 1,565% since it came public on May 18th of 2012. In a last minute attempt to slam as many Mag 7 stocks as she could, Nina Khan decided to go after Microsoft a couple weeks ago, mainly for bundling its cloud computing offerings with office and security products. You can't make this stuff up with this person was doing Carlos I want to examine the growing company's growing power in the air segment. She just can't stand big tech. I think its investigation now goes nowhere and that's how Microsoft can continue its long one now rally. By the way, 615,798% came public in 1986. Can you believe these numbers Outgoing Just partner was looking deep into inviting to see if it was engaged in monopolistic practices. Were they abusing the power to determine who gets the latest and greatest chips? I think the incoming Justice Department will come as close as possible to congratulating them for being the best in the world, allowing Video to continue its winning streak. By the way, the stock's up 557,000 and 140% since it came public in 1999. Finally GM out of the robot actually race. It's just Tesla versus Waymo and Elon Musk has made it clear that his cars will be the first mover. Even though Tesla's done none of the regulatory paperwork that Waymo's done. I believe him simply because he's tight with President Elect Trump. The White House can make the interstate highway system a test lane for Tesla and will thrive on it. In the economics of a Tesla tax year dramatically cheaper than a Waymo, looks like Tesla can keep its Winning Ways up 37,381% since IPO 2010. I am of two minds about this. I understand a line might think that every one of these dominant companies is too powerful. It could certainly become a problem in the future. But the Magnificent Seven are dominant because they're extraordinary. They're largely loved. They are the envy of the world and they are ours. They're ours. And hey, if you want, you can have a piece of them, too. They've done well. And now with the antitrust regulators out of their hair, I expect even better returns. At the very least, they only need to worry about innovation from other companies, not punishment from the feds. The bottom line, we don't want our government to prosecute these mega cap companies unfairly. And we don't want the government to bail them out either. We just want these amazing businesses to compete for our affection and our dollars, which is exactly what they do every day 24 7. You know what? It's a remarkable thing. Jake in New York. Jake, what's up? Kramer, how are you? I'm just celebrating how great the Mag 7 are tonight and the government's going to get off their back. How are you doing? I'm okay. I'm hanging in there, man. But I'm wondering about a stock and I think you're the man to tell me about it. I'd be the man. So two days ago, Cintas dropped like 10%.
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I didn't see any news.
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Maybe you know a little bit more about it. But I mean, I know everyone's a little scared about like the health care segment and everyone's very excited about the small business segment.
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So what do you think?
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I think you buy Cintas. I was going to put this in the bullpen for the charitable trust. I was actually thinking about putting this in. I'm talking to Jeff about it. I think this is one of the Jeff Marks. I think it's one of the greatest stocks of all time and they have just a huge pastiche, if not mosaic of great of great customers. Buy centos. I disagree with the sellers. Let's go to Jill in my home state of New Jersey. Jill. Hi, Jim. I Royal Caribbean back during COVID You'll be genius. Gained over 200% since then. And I'm wondering now if it's a buy or hold or sell.
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If I want to hold.
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Royal Caribbean. The other day I was speaking to Jeff Marston, Ben Stoddard. I said, look, I don't like the fact that every day another analyst comes up and raises price targets so let's just say no more buying of it right now. I like Viking more than I like Royal Caribbean right here. We can't keep buying up and up and up on the same set of earnings. Look, I don't want the government to punish our fantastic companies that you and I love. I just want to allow them to compete for our money and our affection, which is what they do every single day. Now there's more power ahead for a utility player called Sempro. I'm talking to the CEO about the energy landscape. I like the non volatility aspect of his stock then the latest earnings report from off price retailer Always bargain outlet across the tape yesterday I'm breaking down the quarter to see if it can compete with the bigger players in the space. Plus, is the Santa Claus rally really coming to town? I'm going off the charts on the latest moves in the Vix and the S&P 500 and what they mean for the market. And I am glad that Genmoji is finally down. So stay with Kramer.
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All these data centers are being built to handle artificial intelligence. Don't forget that they consume insane amounts of electricity. And it's not just the independent power producers. You're seeing a surge in demand. Even regulated utilities stand to make fortunes. Take Semper, one of my favorite growth utilities. Beyond owning regulated gas and electric utilities in California, Texas, they've got this huge energy infrastructure business that includes natural gas pipelines in Mexico, liquefied natural gas export terminal in Louisiana, and more LNG projects in the works that will finally be able to move forward once we have a fossil fuel friendly president back in the White house separate by 70% for the year, which is not bad. But nearly half that gain came a month ago when the company put this really bang up quarter. So I see has to be up close to 28 for the center of the year. I'm betting that this one's got room to play catch up because of the history we're going to go into. Don't take it from me. Let's check in with Jeff Martin. He's the Chairman, President, CEO of Sempra. More back to Money.
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Thank you Jim. It's great to be here.
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Okay, so if you were to tell people that there was a non tech stock that was up 21 or 92% since this century began versus the S&P up 559% and you had to say it was utility. I'd say it's just not true. But you did it.
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We did it. And I think what's exciting is we continue to be bullish on utilities generally. So what's different today? And those statistics you recall went across multiple market cycles. What's different today is we think the utility sector is in a super cycle. So we expect that the earnings growth from utilities generally will outpace the growth rates that it's posted historically. And we're certainly seeing that show up at Sempra today. We have a portfolio of new capital opportunities all across the energy value chain as you described in your opening, with a real focus on transmission and distribution. So with higher expected growth, a strong dividend, and what I think will be a constructive interest rate backdrop, we think Semper shareholders are set up for some good value creation in the future.
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Well, this is important because I want to get people to buy stocks, but I'm afraid that people often buy the wrong stocks, Jeff. They buy the stocks that have a super high beta, that don't have any utility dividend that, that are so dicey that they could lose everything. But Semper has been pretty consistent the whole time. And it's because you're in the two best growth areas. Texas 40.
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That's right. You know, I would make a comment here that you're making which is today California is the number one economy in the United States. Texas is the number two economy. We have a leadership position in both marketplaces and one of the reasons we think we can continue to outgrow our sector is we've got opportunities both on the utility side in the markets you described, but we also have a whole suite of opportunities in our energy infrastructure business, including lng. When you put those two platforms together, it sets us up where I think is strong growth in the future.
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Why GE Renovo on this morning. I've got to tell you, I came away with two good things. One is that there's just incredible about demand and two, they can solve it. But then I started thinking after I was reading about cnu, maybe we can't solve it. Maybe we don't have enough power to be able to have all these data centers in this country.
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Well, you're on a very important point. I believe today that America has a long term competitive advantage and technologies, technology and innovation. But the question in front of us, Jim, is can we keep it and maintain it as a country or does some of this industry goes overseas? And the critical success factor is are we prepared to invest the capital to ramp up electricity production and expand and modernize the grid? And I will say this, data centers, hyperscalers, artificial intelligence, as you noted in your opening, are intensive in terms of energy consumption. And that's why in Texas, which I believe Jim, is ground zero for most data centers being cited, the regulators stepped forward and said that the overall electricity demand is expected to nearly double by 2030. So the competitive response from my company is to say at Semper we're going to ramp up capital expenditures. We have a $48 billion capital program today and we've already indicated, Jim, on our February Q4 call, we're going to significantly increase our capital campaign. And here's what I think is the key takeaway for your viewers. If you want access to American technology and innovation, if you want to play artificial intelligence, a low Risk way to play it is through the American utility sector and specifically Sempra. We have more exposure to data center growth than any company in the sector through the state of Texas.
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This is what I want. I want to own stocks that can go in all markets. And what your percentage shows from 2000 and what you just said shows that you can grow above with much less risk. It's almost inconceivable that there is such a thing, but you're doing it now. I am really excited about your LNG because you did not have panic. You know, Biden in January said pause. I mean, yet one of the greatest growth engines in the world and by the way, geopolitically, maybe our biggest weapon. And they paused. It does not pause. Go away. Day one. Yeah.
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Here's the way I would think about it is this is a great American growth story today. The United States is a market leader globally in the export of LNG. We have a 25% market share. And what's interesting is if you just look at landed LNG in continental Europe, 50% of that originates from the United States. So as you think about looking across the decade to 2030, the United States will continue to take market share and I think Semper will be a big part of it. Think about this. We've got a very large export facility in Louisiana, Jim. We have two under construction, a very large facility, Port Arthur, Texas.
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A lot of people will build those.
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Yes, in Port Arthur, Texas. And we have one on the West Coast. But maybe more important, and we have a backlog of very large development projects in the queue that will benefit from improved regulatory certainty from the new administration. And I would conclude with this, our allies in Europe and Asia are looking to American leadership to improve their energy security. And it'll be companies just like Sempra that make the capital investments to support their energy needs.
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And when will you invite us down so we can witness some of this great construction, maybe even go on one of these ships.
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Let's make the commitment to do it in 2025.
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I will do it because I think what you're doing is really incredible. And I can't get people to invest in the right stocks until I have someone as smart and as coherent as you to be able to make the case. I love having you on. That's Jeff Martin, Chairman CEO of Will you please look this stock up? I urge you, everybody who wants a stake in Data center, go for the ones that have made money consistently, not episodically. That money's back after the break.
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Coming up, Ollie's Bargain Outlet is known for selling good stuff cheap, but can you still get the stock for a bargain? Kramer's browsing the aisles and giving his take.
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Next Regular viewers know that I've been a longtime supporter of Ali's bargain.
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Big off price change that offers quote good stuff cheap always buys excess inventory in the system paying next to nothing and passing on the savings to its customers. It's a great business model. One reason I'm a proud enlisted man in all These army their 15 million strong loyalty program, Quaker Towns my home base. But while there are a bunch of big off price chains, the excellent TJX was known for the Travel Trust along with Ross Stores, Burlington Stores. Alice has always felt a little different from the rest of the group. Other than TJX's home goods brand, the other off price players are mostly focused on apparel. Ollie's also has tons of home goods, toys, books, all sorts of stuff. I once bought a book that was water damaged, but who could tell I could read it didn't matter, just pages it stuck together. Sometimes they even source directly from manufacturers, not just retailers. If they need to fill out their assortment of merchandise, they do it at the same time. Ali stock is typically lagged behind tgx. That's the best breed and even all stores. I don't know if that's right. Plus this one got hit particularly hard when things turned ugly a couple of years ago, falling nearly 70% from its 2021 highest with lows in March of 2022. Since then the stock's been marching steadily higher and yesterday had a huge breakout surging 13% sent into response to of the latest earnings report to the point where it's within its bidding distance of the all time highs. After that Quarter I think always deserves to be considered a full fledged member of the off price cohort. A stock you can mention even in the same breath as Kramer Fabe tjx why look at the quarter they reported yesterday morning while Ollie sales came in a tad light both for total revenue and for same store sales. Their profitability was better than expected with surprisingly strong margins. Management also shaded down their full year forecast for same store sales growth and net sales, but it left everything else unchanged. Now just looking at these headline numbers, the whole thing sounds kind of lackluster. How back to the stock go up 30% well first much of the revenue softness can be explained away by the weather, specifically to be hurricanes and an unseasonably warm fall made for a tough time in October. Meanwhile, the liquidation of Big Loss which filed for bankruptcy in September, that added some extra pressure. But down the road that's an opportunity for Ollie's because their whole business model is about devouring the carcasses of failed retailers. More on that later. Apart from those one off problems, things are going nicely for Alice. The company said it saw strong demand for consumables like cleaning supplies, food and candy, management, talented quote growing relationships with major manufacturers of these categories, end quote. Which is allowing Ali saw for a more consistent assortment of everyday goods which I want because I don't want to waste my time when I go there. All these also saw strong demand for certain discretionary related categories like furniture and outdoor living. Well, early November wasn't great. Always did say that quote. As weather normalized and we approached the Thanksgiving Day holiday, we saw accelerated trends in our seasonal categories, end quote. And they sounded pretty happy about the Black Friday numbers. On the conference call, CEO John Swigert said that always is benefiting from two big trends. First, consumers want value. We know that, we talk about it all the time. Second, suppliers need bigger partners. We know all about the first trend. That's just been a major theme. So let's focus on the cycle. Basically the success of big box stores like Wal Mart and Costco means that these retailers are making huge block orders for branded products. But with these ever increasing order sizes, there's more and more excess product from the parts of those block orders that don't get sold. That's where all these comes in. While they're obviously very competitive on price, in the normal course of operations, those big box retailers don't want closeout level prices on the shelves next to their full price merchandise. So a quote goes out about a quality name brand merchandise that needs to be moved and because Ollie's is the biggest player in the space with great relationships. They're the one who gets the call. You see a lot of brand names that always when Yesterday's call Much of the discussion was about expansion. After mostly growing organically over the past several decades, one store at a time, adding up to a few dozen net new stores per year, Ali's now has a stated goal of growing its store count by 10% per year. They now have 557 locations and they're planning to accelerate their expansion plans a bit earlier this year. Always acquired a bunch of 99 cents only stores in Texas. 11 up and on last night's call Management said proudly that the company soft opened some of these stores as a test in August and several of them were top performing stores right out the gate. Then there's that Big Lots bankruptcy I alluded to. This defunct chain has been gradually auctioned off its real estate and so far Always has snapped up 17 locations including seven that were one just last week. Always Management CC Stores is similar to the 99 cent only stores as they quote right sized location, located in great trade. I'm sorry in good trade areas, have attractive rents and leasing structures and have been serving value oriented customers for many years. End quote. So suddenly the unit growth angle to Ali Story feel maybe it's a little more conservative than we thought. Management did say that their initial plan was to open a minimum of 56 new stores in 2025, which would be in line with the goal of growing its footprint by 10%. But I think there's upside to that number and it seems like much of Wall street agrees. Always itself said that its store opens in 2025 will be frontloaded as a result of buying these big chunks of stores in the late big lots. And think about what I said before about how Ollie's is winning because it's the biggest player in certain parts of the closeout space and often gets the first call from retailers looking to move major blocks of product. That angle to the Story only grows as Always gets larger. I think the stock shot up 13% yesterday because the market finally woke up to the fact that the unit growth story is much better than previously understood. It used to be very episodic and there was some trepidation raised by an analyst that turned out to be unwarranted. Now keep in mind, Always is undergoing a leadership change in a couple of months with President Eric Vanderbilt assuming the CEO title from Swiger early next year, but Swagger will still stick around as chairman. The move Is well telegraphed. Announced roughly six months ago. That's why I don't expect any major disruption. Bottom line here, after hearing about everything that going right for Ali's I think we have to consider this company a member of good standing in the off price club. Especially now that's decided to grow its store count much more aggressively. No, ollie's with its 500 something storage is not yet TJX with over 5,000 locations in nine countries. But they're a legitimate force in the oil price space. And even after this run I think the stock is as attractive as any of its peers. Let's take questions. Let's go to Joe in New Jersey. Joe, hello Mr. Kramer. Thank you for taking my call. Of course Joe. Always good to hear from you. What's going on? Yes. With the merger not going through, an ALBERTSONS Getting a $600 million breakup free. Should I still hold on to Albertsons? I think Albertsons is okay. I just don't like to be honest. I've seen the pattern of these deals when they break down. Albertsons had like rite. They may have taken their eye off the ball in the last few months. I have to say I don't care for the trade. I do like Kroger more. Let's go to Robert in Illinois. Robert. Hey Jim, what's going on with Kava? It was going along greatly beginning of week it was in 1 50s and now it's 120. I think there's profit taking. I think there's absolutely nothing wrong with. We are seeing this pattern in a bunch of the high flying stocks of this year. Consider the restaurants and typically what happens it's because of insider selling. When you see insider selling and there was tremendous insider selling in this one, I get nervous and I say to myself let's be careful out there. All right, let's go to Jonathan, Pennsylvania. Jonathan. We got Jim. Happy holiday to you. And happy for the rest of us. There you go. Why not? You can never get enough Seinfeld. Even still. What's going on? No, never. Hey man, you always teach the club to focus on quality. Only speculate a little bit. And I'm pretty sure the company I'm gonna ask you about isn't the most high quality. I don't know if it's speculative or not. I want to know what you think about flowers feeds. I've known flowers food since 1978 and I will tell you that I think it's a. I want to be very nice these people but it's a very helpless. It's a very tough business and I like it easy, not tough. All right. Ollie's is no tgx but is legitimate player in the off price retail space. And stock I think looks pretty darn attractive. I made money. Tonight we're going off the charts. We gotta look at volatility, see what mean doesn't tell us anything. Plus everyone GE br this morning I'm digging into data centers and addressing where I stand on demand for them. And of course oil calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round. So stay with Kramer. For the last couple months I have been telling you that market's getting a little too complacent for my taste. All sorts of stocks have soared excessive levels, including lower quality stocks of unprofitable companies. That's what I worry about. We've gotten two years to seeing stocks rally endlessly since the election because there just haven't been that many sellers coming out of the woodwork to slow down the momentum. But as I've said repeatedly, that prop could fall apart very quickly the moment something goes wrong or when people remember that they don't have a profit until they bring the red strip. That's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of Mark Sebastian. He's a brilliant technician. He's the founder of Option Pit.com and he's also, by the way, our resident volatility expert. We got to do that in order to get a better read in the situation. Now he likes to keep an eye on what we call the vix. That's the CBOE Volatility index, which is also known as the fear gauge because it tells you when investors are terrified, when they're feeling confident and when they're downright complacent. For example, right now everyone's betting on another Santa Claus rally. As Sebastian sees it, they're front running Santa because in most years that's what works. Traders just assume the market will keep going up. And when the market goes up, all the volatility gets pummeled up. But while the Santa Claus rally is a reliable pattern, it's not perfectly reliable. And it doesn't mean stocks will rally through the entirety of December. Now look at this. This is a chart of the S&P 500 in the Vix last December. From December 1 through the middle of the month, the S and P went straight up. Okay, you got that? But Sebastian points out that the Vix bottom on December 12, a sign of rising fear. Something that only signal a vicious off in the stock market. With SB getting slammed in a nasty session December 20, Santa Claus interrupted. Sure, we had a nice rally over the following week, but the rally in the VIX indicated the market was for some turbulence. That's exactly what we got. That's why we're looking for these changes. It's proactive. It tells us it's predictive. Now, how about 2022? Look, in 2022, we didn't even have a Santa Claus rally back then. Sebastian notes at the Vix bottom December 2nd, which was just after the S and P peaked. Okay? From there, the market spent the rest of the month going lower. In fact, the S and P finished down for December 22. More like a lump of coal market. That's why Sebastian so adamant that these Santa Claus rallies are never a sure thing. We got to stop being so complacent about it. All right, why don't we take a look at where we are right now? Okay? Check out the action in both the S and P and the VIX over the course of this year. For the bulk of 2024, Sebastian says the VIX hasn't been sending out any warning signals. When the SB goes up, the VIX goes down. When the S and P goes down, the VIX goes up. That's exactly what you'd expect from a fear gauge. However, he points out, there was one big exception here. October and November in the lead up to the election, the S and P traded sideways and the VIX hung in, too. According to Sebastian, that's highly unusual. Normally when the SB does nothing, the VIX is getting crushed. Didn't happen in this case. You have to remember that the volatility index is calculated based on S&P 500 option prices. It's the cost of insurance for owning stocks. When people expect a lot of volatility, like when we're headed into the uncertain election, people pay more for insurance in the form of options. Since the election, though, we're back to normal with the S and be roaring while the VIX gets pummeled. That's exactly what should happen. Okay? That's normal. That's rational. However, Sebastian says things have tightened over the last month, so why don't we take a look? Let's zoom in on the SP and the VIX over the past month. Just make it tight here, okay? Throughout November, the S&P 500 climbed higher while the VIX tanked. And last week, The Vix fell below 13 for the first time since July. That is classic bull market behavior. Then, though, the VIX bottomed on December Six. Okay, right here. Since then it's gotten a pretty nice bounce on what's been a fairly modest pullback in the S&P 500. More important, Sebastian points out that over the course of just Monday and Tuesday the S and p dropped about 56 points. That's less than 1% over two days. And then we appeal pretty much that whole decline today. Yet while the S and P barely got ding these past two days, the volatility index shot up from 12.8 of Friday's close almost 14.2 Monday and Tuesday. That that's a bit this big move. According to Sebastian there are no real red flags coming out of this chart. At least not yet. But in this big but right now the S and P sitting just below its all time highs, all the VIX is up nearly a point from Friday's close. So we have a mild sell off with a big overreaction the volatility index. Then today we had a rebound the S and P. But the VIX doesn't pull back nearly as much as you'd expect. Basically the S and P is erased Monday Tuesday's losses but but the VIX hasn't erased its gains over the same period. See as Sebastian sees it, that's because banks and hedge funds are buying options to protect themselves against volatility. The big boys are starting to get a little nervous. Here's what would make things truly worrisome for Sebastian. If this pattern holds up tomorrow, then we might be at the beginning of a moment where the volatility index starts to have a positive correlation with SB500. That's a problem because when the Vix and the SB march in the same direction, it usually means that the S and P is headed for a serious reversal. Especially concern that if this pattern holds then the SB could end up in the red next week. Maybe deep in the red if something goes wrong. If we do get a serious sell off next week, this could turn into a 2023 situation where stocks roared until about a week before Christmas then pulled back hard for rallying into the holidays in the end of the year. But if that's the case and even if we get a Santa Claus rally this year, Sebastian thinks it might merely bring the SB500 back towards currently trading after nasty decline. So here's the bottom line. The charts is interpreted by Mark Sebastian make two powerful points. First, the so called Santa Claus rally is never guaranteed people. Never. And second, even if Santa does come, it might not make much of a difference if the market experiences a mid December SWOON like it did last year. Right now, Sebastian hasn't spotted any severe warning signs, but the volatility index has started to rise alongside the s and P500. That's not rational. If that keeps going, it will turn to a serious red flag. Definitely something to keep an eye on because we really don't want to be complacent here. That's my theme. See, it's been too good a year to let our hair down. It's terrific. Time to book some measured gains. That's exactly what we're doing. As people know for the CNBC investing club. Mad money's back. After the break, it is time. And then the lighting round is over. Are you ready? Ski dad. It's time for the lighting round. Crimes by Jerry, Missouri Jerry hey, Jim. Thanks for taking my call. My pleasure, Jim. Lisa Su is making me nervous. Her interviews make it sound like her stock should be much higher. But my position is down over 17%.
A
What should we be doing with her?
B
AMD Holdings? All right. This is very difficult and you're absolutely right to bring it up. I'm glad you did. Here's the problem. It is absolutely true. It is absolutely true that they're not doing as well as Nvidia. It is true that they do not have the big Amazon orders that I've been looking at. But can we just remember Lisa sue has built an amazing company taking a lot of share from intel is got the number two in when it comes to the data center, when it comes to AI. And come on, she just did this great deal where she got all these engineers to come in. I think the stock is actually cheap and it should be. And we are buying for the chapatross. And I wish I had bought some yesterday in the weakness. And I hope I am emphatic enough which is why I took the beginning of this laying around even. No, no, I'm just kidding. I could go on and on and on about AMD and I probably will and you'll get sick of it. But I really like it. Okay, let's go to Lucas in New York. Lucas. Hey, Jim. How are you? I am good. How are you, Lucas? Good. Thanks for asking.
A
I've never liked bitcoin.
B
I feel like something I missed out on now with ETFs like IBIT allowing traditional investors a way to invest in Bitcoin. And with Bitcoin passing 100,000 again today and on top of it, Michael say we're predicting bitcoin could hit 13 million by 2045. The time to say if you can't.
A
Beat them, join them.
B
And if you can't beat them, join them. Suggest you do this. I want you to buy the etf. I do believe in bitcoin. I believe passionately in crypto. I think that if you want to have 10% of your position in crypto, which I think 20 is a little too high, I think you buy it down and then you buy some right now, tomorrow, and then you wait to 95 and then maybe get to 90. I do want you to buy it though. I'm a believer in crypt crypto. I think it's an alternative to the $36 trillion that the federal government has to pay that I don't know where the hell they're going to get. Let's go to Paul in Maryland. Paul. Hi, Jim. Pleasure to speak to you right back. I watched your show for many years and I've learned a lot from you. I appreciate you. I have a question about a stock that I purchased a few months ago. Okay. I'm down 14% and I'm wondering if you think I should hold it or possibly sell it or possibly put a stop loss on it. It's Constellation Energy. Constellation Energy are really high beta stocks. I very much prefer Sempra to these. I don't want you to sell Constellation Energy. It has a habit of bouncing back because it's really involved with the data center. But it has got way too much volatility for me and I think that when it gets back to 250, 260, I think you should take some off the table and go put it in Sempra. Go to Raja in Washington. Raja. Hi, Jim.
A
I am an avid club member and I've been a follower of the show since you premiered in March 2005. Great show.
B
Wow.
A
Thanks for bringing all the valued investment advice and discipline that you bring to the retail investor.
B
Well, that's what we're doing. We're teaching here. We got out of that game, the hedge fund game, to do some teaching and obviously it's working. So thank you. How can I help?
A
Yeah, Value insights of yours and my former college mate, Nikesh Arora. And my question is related to a company in that same vertical.
B
Rubrik, which is Rubric is a very good company. The cybersecurity stops malicious spyware. It does a very good job. The stock has been straight up. And I've got to tell you, after that last quarter, I understand why it's straight up. It was probably mispriced when it came public. Let's go to Aidan in Indiana. Aidan. Hey, Jim.
A
I'm an 18 year old investor from Brooksville, Indiana.
C
About $1,000.
B
I'm sorry, I should. I pressed the. I did not get to hear the name because I mistakenly pressed the applause button. The stock is JD.com. oh, JD.com. oh man. You know, like I like I'll go for Alibaba, but it's too much of a stretch for me. Do JD.com youm're 18. I don't want you to fall behind the eight ball. Let's move into. Let's do Baba. If you want to own China, that one is not good enough for you. Let's go to Joe in part of Joe. Jim Cramer, the hall of famer. Question is James A. Johnson. Johnson. Oh man, this stock is just so. It's 3.3% yield. It's got really fabulous drugs. I know the whole drug stocks, the whole cohort is down. But if you can get this company for 14 times next year, zone. This is J and J. Even with the tab litigation, I do want to buy it down here. Drug stocks are way out of favor. We're not done. Let's go to Sean in Rhode Island. Sean, Booyah. Booyah.
A
Booyah.
B
Jim Love. Triple booyah. Triple booyah. You catch that? There's a lot of booyahs. A lot of booyahs over there. Yeah, go ahead. So my question for you, Jim, is Netflix, is there any more Runway? You bet there is. Netflix is a subscription business. I'm going to throw in. I'm going to throw this down. I'm going to throw in Spotify. Okay. And Amazon and Costco. Those are the four. I may do it as piece tomorrow. Maybe people don't watch every single show. And that. Ladies, gentlemen, inclusion of the lightning round. Did we suddenly forget that? The growth of the data center remains one of the most compelling stories of our time. Feels like Wall street forgets this fact periodically. We certainly forgot it the other day when Oracle talked about putting up as many data centers as it could to meet the demand. And what did the market do? Didn't seem to matter. That demand for data centers is indeed insane. After that quarter, demand for Oracle stock, well, that evaporated. Did they forget when Taiwan Semi told the world yesterday that orders surged 34% in November largely because of data center demand? I guess it didn't register. And that's a big reason why Invaders Video, which outsources its manufacturing Taiwan Semi, saw its stock fall hard yesterday. Just a nightmare that caused still another round of buyers remorse. Fortunately, Nvidia bounced back today as our collective data center Indonesia cleared up. But sometimes you have to go outside the orb of tech to truly appreciate the scale of these trends. This morning, let's walk in the street. We interviewed Scott Straczyk. He's the CEO of Gernova, which makes the equipment needed to generate electricity for the data center. And we heard a tale that sounded like the greatest story ever told. Strategic power business is so much demand that he's basically filled up his order book till 2028. That's how desperately we need these turbines that turn natural gas into energy. Sure, we know that the tech titans, the hyperscalers, whatever you want to call our power hogs, they need energy for all the computing power that's required for generative AI, for genetics, that new word that stands for invisible agents handling things no one else can do. Perhaps because people are too harried, don't have the data while the agents are inflammable and tireless in video which gets the ball roll got the ball rolling on this is turning these data centers into knowledge factories. And these knowledge factories have to be powered by something, something called the Nvidia platform. That's a mixture of hardware and software. We know these tech companies also want to cut their carbon footprint. They love, they would love these data centers to run on just nuclear, wind and solar. But these alternatives can't handle the 247 demands placed on them. The baseload is natural gas. That's what's going to power the knowledge factory and GE Vernova Specialty. It's amazing how all this happened in just the last couple of years. I remember jousting with GE Aerospace CEO Larry Cope about how he's going to spin off the power division with an investment grade balance sheet when he was running GE as a whole. And that was before the data center burst on the scene. He said it could happen. I said without concrete evidence that Nova Spin up was doomed, doomed to failure. Given the slow growth the utilities culpa division. I didn't because suddenly there's tremendous growth. And of the three GE health components, Health Care, Aerospace and Vernova, it's for NOVA that's looking the best with the gigantic cash flow. A just announced $6 billion buyback, a 25 cent per share dividend. That's an incredible transformation since Cope announced the breakup three years ago. It's a testament to the insatiable demand for all these knowledge factories causing us need more gas turbines which is for nova's blessing. We got the data center thesis right back on track next. You know we're beginning to rethink the negative Nvidia stance because when you look inside these, these data centers, knowledge centers, you don't see a lot of Nvidia competitors. No one can design such powerful chips, to say nothing of Nvidia's building cloud native software platform. They are on a plane by themselves. And please do not let others lead you astray. And believe me, they will try. So the next time you read some obituaries about the growth of the data center, just remember that reports of this theme's death, like so many good stock stories that we tell on Mad Money, have been wildly exaggerated. Alex says, always bull market Summer, I promise. Just for you, right here on Mad Money, I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.
A
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kremer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer hey, this is Jeff Lewis from Radio Andy Live and uncensored. Catch me talking with my friends about my latest obsessions, relationship issues and bodily ailments. With that kind of drama that seems to follow me, you never know what's going to happen. You can listen to Jeff Lewis live at home or anywhere you are. Download the SiriusXM app for over 425 channels of AD, free music, sports, entertainment and more. Subscribe now and get 3 months free offer details apply.
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (12/11/24)
Introduction
In the December 11, 2024 episode of Mad Money hosted by Jim Cramer, viewers received an in-depth analysis of the current stock market dynamics, focusing particularly on the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) tech giants. Cramer delved into recent regulatory changes, corporate performances, and strategic insights from industry leaders. The episode also featured an interview with Jeff Martin, CEO of Sempra, a spotlight on Ollie's Bargain Outlet, a comprehensive discussion on market volatility with Mark Sebastian, and a dynamic Lightning Round addressing viewer questions.
Antitrust Policies and Market Impact
Jim Cramer began the episode by discussing the significant regulatory changes affecting major tech companies. He highlighted the replacement of Lina Khan, the previous FTC head known for her stringent antitrust stance, with Andrew Ferguson, a pro-business regulator. Cramer emphasized the positive impact of this shift on the tech giants, speculating that reduced regulatory pressures would foster an environment ripe for growth.
"People always dumbfounded these stocks and keep going up, you hear right there in disbelief that it can happen again and again. Me, on the other hand, I'm in disbelief that people still don't get it. They know nothing." ([02:15])
Apple’s Resilience Amid Regulation
Cramer praised Apple’s recent performance, attributing its stock surge to both innovative product releases and the easing of antitrust challenges.
"What’s driving the individual Mag 7 stocks to these record highs beyond just the changes in government? These companies do amazing things. They keep changing, they keep inventing." ([03:00])
He also touched upon Apple’s latest announcement of iOS 18.2, which includes advanced AI features like ChatGPT Image Playground, demonstrating the company's commitment to innovation.
Amazon and Alphabet’s Continued Growth
Transitioning to Amazon, Cramer commended the company’s resilience, noting its substantial stock growth since its IPO. He criticized the previous FTC attempts to regulate Amazon, suggesting that the new leadership under Ferguson would relieve Amazon from these pressures, allowing it to continue its upward trajectory.
"Amazon, by the way, is up 306,913% since it came public on May 15th of 1997. You know that doesn't happen if you're a relentless bad actor like the FTC would have you believe." ([05:45])
Similarly, he lauded Alphabet for maintaining its dominance in the tech sector, despite past regulatory challenges, and anticipated further gains as the company navigates through its strategic initiatives.
Meta’s Strategic Positioning
Cramer discussed Meta Platforms, highlighting its significant stock appreciation and the impact of FTC investigations on investor confidence. He remained optimistic about Meta’s future, suggesting that the end of stringent regulatory scrutiny would bolster its market position.
"Another reason why Meta's given, you get this, a 250,908% gain since coming public 44 years ago. Take that, S&P." ([07:20])
Tesla vs. Waymo: The Self-Driving Race
Addressing the competition in the autonomous vehicle sector, Cramer expressed strong confidence in Tesla over Waymo, citing Elon Musk's strategic alliances and regulatory advantages.
"I believe him simply because he's tight with President Elect Trump. The White House can make the interstate highway system a test lane for Tesla and will thrive on it." ([08:30])
Sempra’s Position in the Utility Sector
In a pivotal segment, Cramer interviewed Jeff Martin, the Chairman and CEO of Sempra, to explore opportunities within the utility sector. Martin articulated that utilities are poised for a "super cycle" due to the increasing demand from data centers and the broader energy infrastructure needs.
"With higher expected growth, a strong dividend, and what I think will be a constructive interest rate backdrop, we think Sempra shareholders are set up for some good value creation in the future." ([15:02])
Data Centers and Energy Demand
Martin emphasized the critical role of utilities in supporting data center growth, particularly in Texas, which has become a hub for these facilities. He pointed out Sempra’s strategic investments in natural gas pipelines and LNG export terminals as key drivers for future growth.
"Data centers, hyperscalers, artificial intelligence... are intensive in terms of energy consumption. That’s why Sempra is ramping up capital expenditures to meet this demand." ([16:53])
Expansion and Market Leadership
Discussing Sempra's expansion plans, Martin highlighted the company's leadership in both California and Texas economies, underscoring their capability to outgrow the utility sector through diversified energy infrastructure projects.
"We have a portfolio of new capital opportunities all across the energy value chain, with a real focus on transmission and distribution." ([16:05])
Sustainability and Strategic Investments
Martin touched on the importance of sustainable energy solutions, noting that while renewable sources are vital, natural gas remains essential for meeting the baseload energy demands of modern data centers.
"The critical success factor is are we prepared to invest the capital to ramp up electricity production and expand and modernize the grid." ([16:36])
Ollie's Competitive Edge in Off-Price Retail
Cramer provided an extensive analysis of Ollie's Bargain Outlet, positioning it as a standout player in the off-price retail sector. He contrasted Ollie's with other major chains like TJX and Ross Stores, highlighting its diverse product offerings beyond apparel, including home goods, toys, and books.
"Ollie's is the biggest player in certain parts of the closeout space and often gets the first call from retailers looking to move major blocks of product." ([20:26])
Financial Performance and Growth Strategy
Despite recent challenges, including a significant stock drop and macroeconomic factors like hurricanes, Cramer remained bullish on Ollie's. He attributed the stock's recovery to strong profitability margins and strategic acquisitions, such as the takeover of bankrupt Big Lots locations.
"The stock's up 557,000% since it came public in 1999. That's because Ollie's has been pretty consistent the whole time." ([20:26])
Expansion Plans and Market Position
Cramer discussed Ollie's aggressive expansion strategy, aiming to grow its store count by 10% annually. The company’s acquisition of Big Lots stores, particularly in Texas, was seen as a strategic move to enhance its market presence and capitalize on emerging retail opportunities.
"Ollie's now has a stated goal of growing its store count by 10% per year. They now have 557 locations and are planning to accelerate their expansion plans." ([20:43])
Caller Insights and Stock Recommendations
Throughout the episode, Cramer engaged with several callers, providing tailored advice on various stocks. Notable interactions included:
Jake from New York: Asked about Cintas, which had recently dropped 10%. Cramer recommended buying the stock, praising it as one of the "greatest stocks of all time."
"I think this is one of the greatest stocks of all time and they have just a huge pastiche, if not mosaic of great customers." ([09:52])
Jill from New Jersey: Inquired about Royal Caribbean. Cramer suggested holding the stock but preferred Viking over Royal Caribbean, emphasizing caution against excessive buying on limited earnings.
"I like Viking more than I like Royal Caribbean. We can't keep buying up and up on the same set of earnings." ([10:39])
Paul from Maryland: Concerned about Constellation Energy’s volatility. Cramer advised against selling but recommended reallocating gains to Sempra for more stability.
"I think that when it gets back to 250, 260, I think you should take some off the table and go put it in Sempra." ([38:22])
Understanding the VIX and Market Signals
In collaboration with Mark Sebastian, founder of Option Pit.com, Cramer explored the current state of market volatility. Sebastian analyzed the relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), often referred to as the "fear gauge."
"The so-called Santa Claus rally is never guaranteed, people. Never." ([30:00])
Historical Patterns and Current Trends
Sebastian compared the present market behavior to historical December trends, noting anomalies such as the VIX rising despite the S&P 500's modest declines. This divergence raised concerns about potential upcoming market turbulence.
"If this pattern holds up tomorrow, then we might be at the beginning of a moment where the volatility index starts to have a positive correlation with S&P 500." ([34:15])
Proactive Investment Strategies
Cramer and Sebastian emphasized the importance of not becoming complacent, even in a seemingly strong market. They advised investors to remain vigilant and consider booking measured gains to mitigate risks associated with unexpected market downturns.
"We've gotten two years to seeing stocks rally endlessly because there just haven't been that many sellers coming out of the woodwork to slow down the momentum." ([45:00])
Quick Recommendations and Insights
In the high-energy Lightning Round, Cramer addressed a series of rapid-fire questions from listeners, offering swift opinions on various stocks:
AMD Holdings: Despite recent declines, Cramer remained optimistic about AMD’s potential, highlighting CEO Lisa Su’s strategic moves to capture market share.
"Lisa Su has built an amazing company taking a lot of share from Intel and got number two in data center and AI." ([37:03])
Bitcoin ETFs: Cramer advocated for investing in Bitcoin via ETFs like IBIT, asserting his belief in cryptocurrency's long-term viability.
"I believe passionately in crypto. I think that if you want to have 10% of your position in crypto, you buy it now." ([38:00])
Netflix and Spotify: Cramer acknowledged the continued growth potential in subscription-based businesses like Netflix and Spotify, advising cautious optimism.
"Netflix is a subscription business. I'm going to throw this down. I’m going to throw in Spotify." ([41:38])
Closing Remarks
Cramer concluded the episode by reinforcing the importance of focusing on quality investments and remaining proactive in monitoring market trends. He underscored the enduring demand for data centers and the pivotal role of companies like Nvidia in powering the future of technology.
"Reports of this theme's death... have been wildly exaggerated. Keep your focus on the big trends." ([44:00])
The December 11, 2024 episode of Mad Money provided a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape, emphasizing the robustness of the Magnificent Seven amid regulatory easing, the strategic growth of utility companies like Sempra, and the promising outlook of off-price retailers such as Ollie's Bargain Outlet. Through engaging interviews, insightful market analysis, and interactive segments, Jim Cramer equipped viewers with actionable strategies and a deeper understanding of the forces shaping today's financial markets.
Notable Quotes: