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Jim Cramer (1:03)
My mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it. Mad MONEY starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to kramerca other people who make friends. I'm just trying to make you a little bit of money. My job is not just to entertain, but I'm trying to put it all together and explain it to you. So call me 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. All right, the market's Biden its time right now. I mean, the Dows dipping 86 points today. SB essentially unchanged. NASDAQ advancing point one. 2%. And when the market buys this time, guess what? People tend to get a little nervous. For example, usually when $1 trillion semiconductor company like Broadcom reports a monster good quarter sending its stock up more than 24%, we get what I call some pin action. But today we got next to nothing in the semis or most tech. Maybe we haven't been able to mount a rally because the bond market's been down every day this week as inflation runs hotter than we thought. Nobody wants to buy growth in that environment. I think the Wall Street's gotten a little too negative, frankly, as we get oversold and we're getting there. But I've been warning about stocks going to excessive levels for two weeks now, so I can't be all that positive until we see a couple of days with bond yields actually go lower with the stock market. That's why we want to start our game plan for next week with Monday, but Wednesday because that's when the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to cut rates by a quarter percent. Now nothing's a given in this league, but we heard from many Fed officials that they prep does the expected 25 basis point cut okay, now you know me. I hate the endless focus on the Fed by everybody because it detracts you from benefiting from long term performance for your stock portfolio. You'll trade in and out and in and out. Every little signal from the Federal Reserve brings out predictions causing many people to sell good stocks when they are freaked out. You also have people who just can't let it go. Dogs with bones. As soon as we get the Fed rate cut, well guess what? They're immediately focused on the next cut. I think this is absurd. There are endless in their Jeremiah, it's about the future and I don't like to scare you. I'm not going to be complacent, but I'm not going to scare you out of your stocks. Don't get me wrong. Fed's very important, but as an investor it doesn't do any good to obsess over the minutia of central banking. We don't have an ideological Fed. We have a data dependent Fed. So unless you have access to data that the rest of us don't and you don't all the speculation, it's a fool's error. I do believe we'll have some dissent this time from the open market committee members. And while I don't think the data is cool enough to be positive about the prospect of more cuts for now, I also don't want you to make decisions based purely on what the Fed does. Contrary to popular belief, there is more to investing than monetary policy and I wish everyone knew that they don't. Now I'll make this point when we have our monthly investing club meeting on the very Wednesday that we have the Fed meeting. I think you'll want to tune in as I walk you through the prospects of each charitable trust holding for the coming year. And some of them are indeed in flux. Beyond the Fed, there's a ton of just regular old corporate news next week on Monday for instance, a trial begins people aren't talking about, but I will in a Delaware federal court between Qualcomm and AAM Holdings. It's a Patent dispute involving high performance processors. And if ARM wins, it'll take away Qualcomm's license to use important chips and cell phones and laptops. Now the smart money is betting on a settlement, which I think would be good for everyone. Tuesday morning we get some retail sales numbers. Now, while this number does come out on the eve of the Fed meeting, these numbers will be hotly debated as we try to figure out the state of the consumer during a period where Black Friday had more significance than ever because of the shortened time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas. The bond market just had a terrible week. So cooler retail sales numbers could actually be a self fulfilling antidote, maybe an opportunity to buy after the Fed meeting. Besides the Fed, we have some big earnings reports on Wednesday, starting with General Mills, which caught an upgrade today thanks to accelerating pet food sales. Actually, I'm more worried about sugar cereal. And I say that having interviewed incoming Health and Human Services Secretary Designate Bobby Kennedy on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, I think that his chief objective is not vaccines, it's healthier eating. And he seemed to confirm that yesterday when I spoke with him. If that's the case, then General Mills could be in trouble because, well, sugared cereal is a major profit generator for the company. After the close, we hear from two bellwethers. There's Micron, the semiconductor company, which you know I like very much, and Lenore, the huge homebuilder, which I also share affection for. Micron had a nice rally today. I think you can tell a good story about the entire line of chips after a period of subpar performance. Not just the high bandwidth chips. Lennar. Okay, that's trickier. This week saw the housing stocks just get clubbed after Toll Brothers reported a less than perfect quarter for Getting downgraded by JP Morgan 12 Punch this very morning that sent the group cascading. It's a casualty of the frail bond market which is not cooperating with the Fed's rate cut agenda. Mortgage rates are stubbornly high and we just aren't getting the turnover we would have expected by now Thursday morning. Well, Darden tells us how it's doing and I got to tell you, this one's still being driven by Olive Garden. I think the market's actually moved away from the formerly important restaurant chain. Instead it's focused on the results of Texas Roadhouse and Brinker, both of which offer great value and are being rewarded with tremendous numbers and then much higher stock prices. I want to find out if Darden gets the consumers pushing back against high prices. They have to tell us what they're doing to entice these people who seem to be going elsewhere for casual dining. Pretty much for people who want to spend no more than $11 per dinner at the close. We believe we're going to get a revelatory report from Nike. Now. The new CEO, Eliot Hill, he's an old Nike hand, by the way. We'll have to lay out a story about how to reignite this brand globally, which is undersold from Adidas, Hoka Decker Deckers, that Hoka of Deckers. And then on holdings, which we've had on a bunch of times. I think Nike has to do more than just say it'll work harder with its partners. That's a Hackney statement. Doesn't hold any water with me anymore. Companies are showing innovation, dazzling innovation, the kind that makes us feel like fools are even thinking of abandoning Nike. It's amazing how much damage the previous CEO did to this once on a saleable brand. It won't be undone easily. And we'll need a both a roadmap with a line of sight to the end of the number cuts and a sense of newness. What else? The transports have been picking up of late, which tells me maybe we got to be a little more hopeful. In the great FedEx reports, this company has been working hard to take out costs and it's still working aggressively to improve gross margins. I think we hear good things. I look I'd like to Fraser still do. This is the period where people are most nervous about it because of the upcoming holiday. Finally, on Friday we get our first look at the next set of inflation data. That's called the personal consumption expenditures number. Remember, my view is that we'll continue to get endless chatter about what the Fed might do or not. So if this number runs hot, you can hear a lot of doomsday. And why do I put it up there then? Well, because maybe it's a good opportunity to buy something on weakness because other people will be freaked out by what the doomsayers say. We also get numbers from Carnival. Now Carnival is. This is the cruise line. This has got to be the most bullish industry in the S&P 500 at this moment, cruises remain the most popular form of travel, leisure activities post Covid. They're a great bargain. I think the estimates will be beaten. Right now you can throw darts at this group and make money. I just booked myself a cruise for next year. Nothing lasts forever. But the love for this group currently knows no bounds. The bottom line we're in a seasonably strong period, or at least we thought we were. But don't tell that to the owners of health care, technology industrials or material stocks which have been horrendous. As I said, we have to get through the Fed meeting for Santa Claus town. Now, it's not a fairy tale. Wall Street Santa Claus rally is usually a reality. But let's get the Fed news out before we go all in with that next and final contribution to your IRA or 401k. I want to start the calls with Jay in Arizona. Jay, Jim, thank you so much for.
