Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – December 16, 2025: Detailed Episode Summary

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jim Cramer dives into the ongoing challenges and rotations within Wall Street, particularly surrounding data center and AI spending, the fate of tech and industrial stocks, commodity markets (with a focus on oil), and the movement of money into more sustainable non-tech growth stocks. Cramer uses vivid analogies (including a “Godfather” parallel), interviews the CEO of Texas Capital Bank, and delivers his trademark Lightning Round of rapid-fire stock opinions. The episode is marked by Cramer’s candid, high-energy style and a focus on positioning portfolios after 2025's tech shakeup.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wall Street’s Shift Away from AI/Data Center Stocks (01:54 – 09:30)

• Current Market Sentiment: Money managers are turning away from AI-related data center companies due to “reckless, improved data center spending” resulting in ballooning costs and debt.
• Winners and Losers Within Tech: Traditional data storage companies—SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, and Micron—are benefiting from strong demand and limited supply, but Cramer warns about their cycle of “boom and bust.”
• The ‘Godfather’ Analogy – Tech's Five Families: Cramer compares the current AI/data center build-out war among Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and OpenAI (with Oracle) to the five mafia families in The Godfather.
  • OpenAI and Oracle are cast as the “renegades” overspending, with Sam Altman likened to “Sonny Corleone — too impetuous to lead the family.”
  • The market awaits a “peace” or truce—i.e., fiscal discipline—likely led by Oracle reining in its spending, which Cramer sees as inevitable due to bond market pressure.
  • He predicts: once Oracle shows discipline, others will follow, leading to a healthy sector rotation and recovery for related stocks.

“Sam (Altman) is perhaps $50 billion in the bank. He arguably needs about 25 times that to make his dreams come true—true domination dreams.”
— Jim Cramer (06:50)

• Outlook for Data Center Plays: Cramer suggests that “rationality would return” to data center and hyperscaler stocks once spending is reined in, benefiting companies like Broadcom and Nvidia.
• Bottom Line: The necessary “five-family truce” would boost these tech stocks, but things could get uglier until Oracle or OpenAI back down.
  • “The truce that follows will allow everyone to skate in their own lanes, cut their capex budgets, make a huge amount of money and then see their stocks really fly. Meta, Microsoft to the moon.”
    — Jim Cramer (08:55)

2. Audience Q&A: Stock Opinions & Portfolio Tips (09:30 – 12:38)

• TJX (TJ Maxx): Cramer recommends waiting for a pullback before buying, citing a current spike that will likely retrace.
• DraftKings: Despite recent losses, Cramer remains bullish, expecting the company to recover as statistical odds favor them:

  “Those are going to end. The statistics favor them coming back to even when it comes to those losses. And I think DraftKings is a very well run company…”
  — Jim Cramer (11:26)

3. Economic Data Deep Dive: Fed, Jobs, Retail & PMI (15:01 – 21:17)

• Government Data Catch-Up: The episode reviews post-shutdown economic releases, which are key to Fed rate expectations.
• Fed Watch: There’s a disconnect between the Fed’s stated intentions (possibly only one or zero rate cuts) and market bets (expecting two or more cuts).
• Jobs Report: November showed +64,000 jobs (better than expected), October revised downward. Labor force participation up; unemployment rate rose to 4.6%; wage growth cooling.
• Retail Sales: Weak October reading but strong trends for the holiday period. Cramer notes holiday optimism.
• Flash PMI Readings: Disappointing but still expansionary; composite at a six-month low (53.0).

  “The flash PMI data for December suggests that the recent economic growth spurt is losing momentum.” — Chris Williamson, S&P Market Intelligence (19:24)

• Conclusion: Data was mixed but tilts negative, potentially pushing more Fed officials toward rate cuts, which the market “wants and needs.”
  • “Remember: we’re in bad news is good news mode. The weaker the economy gets, the easier it is for the Fed to cut rates.”
    — Jim Cramer (20:56)

4. Oil and Commodities: Technical Deep Dive with Carly Garner (23:07 – 31:53)

• State of The Oil Market: Ongoing bear market, with prices falling since 2022's Russia/Ukraine peak.
• Patterns & Bear Market Psychology: Garner warns oil hasn’t hit bottom; historical support suggests a test of low $40s per barrel before recovery.
• Seasonality: End-of-year rallies are common, but they’re typically short-lived and not indicative of a true bottom.
• Natural Gas Insights: Watching the $3.60 level; a breakdown could see prices collapse further.
• Broader Commodity Index: Most of the “comeback” is in metals (gold/silver/copper); ex-metals, commodities look weak.

  "It rarely pays off to bet in the same direction as the herd...not enough people have given up on oil yet."
  — Jim Cramer, referencing Carly Garner (25:40)

• Viewer Qs – Applovin, Chevron:
  • Applovin: Sell half after a big run; multiple too high.
  • Chevron vs Exxon: Cramer bullish on Chevron’s management and buyback, expects improved performance.

5. Interview: Rob Holmes, CEO of Texas Capital Bank (33:37 – 39:39)

• Texas: A Growth Economy: Texas is the 8th largest economy worldwide and highly diversified. No subsector >10% of GDP.
• Texas Capital’s Transformation: Under Holmes, the bank underwent an ambitious turnaround to become a full-service financial firm; stock up 43% since he started.
  • Emphasis on conservative risk management and building capital strength.
  • New treasury, payments, and investment banking businesses established with rapid growth (e.g., $25B in debt placements).
• Local vs Global Banks: Texas Capital aims to “out-local the global banks” while offering a full service suite.

  "We actually out-local the global banks. So if you want local decision-making, not just local people...you bank with us."
  — Rob Holmes (38:12)

6. Lightning Round: Rapid-Fire Stock Takes (39:48 – 43:44)

Cramer answers questions about dozens of individual stocks. Key notes:

• Avoid highly speculative or low-transparency stocks (e.g. Horizon Technical Finance: “I don’t trust it”).
• Prefer established growth with earnings over story stocks.
• Sell half after big run-ups; be wary of stocks trading at high multiples without profits.

Notable quotes:

“I will never recommend a stock where I do not know what’s under the hood.”
— Jim Cramer, on Horizon (41:40)

“You have won the lottery, you do not need to win it again.”
— Jim Cramer, on holding a highly volatile pharma stock (42:48)

7. Commentary: Finding Growth in the Post-Tech Bubble Market (43:58 – End)

• Rotation Away from Data Centers: Cramer details how he anticipated a pullback in overhyped tech/data center names, and instead looked for double-digit sales growth in healthcare, aerospace, select retailers, fintech, and resource stocks.
• Lessons from the Dot-Com Bust: Unlike 2000, today’s bubble (in data centers and AI) has deflated in an orderly way, with capital rotating into non-tech growth stocks instead of being destroyed.
• Outlook: Institutional memory has moved on; “institutional money fled the bubble stocks months ago and moved into all sorts of non tech growth plays.”

  “It’s what I call 2025: an orderly migration back to old sustainable growth that’s a beneficiary of AI, not a maker of it.”
  — Jim Cramer (47:26)

• Closing Thought: The broadening rally into diverse growth areas is a stabilizing force, mitigating risk even as former market leaders (the “Mag 7”) cool off.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Artificial intelligence companies are paying too much to build out data centers...the data center is now a scarlet letter.” — Jim Cramer (02:05)
• “The answer can be found in The Godfather. Right now you got five big tech companies — the five families, so to speak.” — Jim Cramer (04:57)
• “As long as Altman [OpenAI] is spending like crazy, everyone else has to spend to keep up with them.” — Jim Cramer (07:15)
• “Once Oracle shows discipline, I think every other hyperscaler would slow down and we get a more reasonable pace.” — Jim Cramer (08:23)
• “The consumer is not feeling great but still spending at a decent clip, at least for the holidays.” — Jim Cramer (18:16)
• “The charts as interpreted by Carly Garner suggest oil will bottom eventually, but we’re going to see more weakness until we get there.” — Jim Cramer (31:53)
• “All you need to know is just to look at the stocks of Merck and Johnson & Johnson since the data center collapse and you’ll know exactly what I mean.” — Jim Cramer (45:05)
• “Institutional money fled the bubble stocks months ago and moved into all sorts of non tech growth plays. That’s the strength of this market.” — Jim Cramer (47:15)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:54] — Opening monologue: Market views, AI/data center critique, “Godfather” analogy
• [09:30] — Audience Q&A: TJX, DraftKings
• [15:01] — Economic data & implications for Fed policy
• [23:07] — Oil/commodity analysis with Carly Garner
• [33:37] — Interview: Rob Holmes, Texas Capital Bank
• [39:48] — Lightning Round: Rapid-fire stock takes
• [43:58] — Closing commentary: Market rotations and growth leadership

Summary Takeaway

Jim Cramer’s December 16, 2025 episode is a master class in market adaptation and investor psychology. Wrestling with tech’s boom/bust cycles, overextended AI/data center spending, and rotating capital flows, Cramer argues that healthy, sustainable growth lies beyond the data center echo chamber. Viewers are urged to seek value and growth in diversified sectors, heed technical and macroeconomic warning signs, and continue learning from the past— all while keeping a keen eye on risk and opportunity in a rapidly-changing market.