Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/17/24

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (December 17, 2024)

Release Date: December 18, 2024

In the December 17, 2024 episode of "Mad Money" hosted by Jim Cramer, listeners were treated to an in-depth analysis of the health care sector, insights into holiday market dynamics, a comprehensive look at the semiconductor space, and an engaging Lightning Round addressing caller inquiries. This episode is packed with actionable investment strategies, expert opinions, and critical market evaluations, making it an invaluable resource for both novice and seasoned investors.

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1. Navigating the Health Care Sector

Jim Cramer kicked off the episode by delving into his ongoing series focusing on the health care sector, specifically targeting high-quality stocks that have experienced significant downturns. He emphasized the importance of identifying undervalued stocks that present buying opportunities amid market pessimism.

a. Medtronic (Ticker: MDT)

• Performance & Potential: Medtronic, a leader in medical devices, has been a long-term underperformer with a mere 12% increase over the past decade. However, Cramer highlighted a resurgence in momentum fueled by innovative product launches.
• Product Innovations: The company has secured approximately 120 product approvals in the last year, focusing on transcatheter aortic valve replacement, pulse field ablation, and leadless pacemakers. The enhancements in their Hugo robotic surgery platform were particularly noted.
• Financial Outlook: Medtronic reported eight consecutive quarters of mid-single-digit organic sales growth. Earnings are projected to grow by nearly 5% in fiscal 2025, accelerating to 7% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.
• Investment Insight: "Medtronic is paying you to wait for a comeback," Cramer asserted, citing its attractive valuation at just under 14 times next year's earnings estimate and a robust 3.4% dividend yield. (Timestamp: 13:50)

b. Edwards Life Sciences (Ticker: EW)

• Recent Struggles: Edwards has faced significant challenges, including a 31% stock drop in a single session following disappointing quarterly sales in their transcatheter aortic valve replacement business.
• Analyst Upgrades: Bank of America upgraded Edwards from neutral to buy, citing a catalyst-rich schedule for 2025 and 2026, and positioning the company well within the high-growth transcatheter aortic valve replacement market.
• Valuation & Potential: With a price target raised from $82 to $90 per share, Cramer found the upgrade compelling, suggesting that better days lie ahead for Edwards. (Timestamp: 14:50)

c. IDEX Laboratories (Ticker: IEX)

• Market Position: IDEX, a leader in veterinary diagnostics, has seen its stock plummet 27% from its March 2020 highs.
• Financial Health: Despite a revenue miss and a trimmed full-year forecast, IDEX remains undervalued at approximately 36 times next year's earnings estimates.
• Growth Prospects: Cramer anticipates a rebound in pet-related services post-pandemic, contributing to secular growth and increased pricing power. (Timestamp: 15:40)

Summary Insight: Cramer advocates for contrarian investing in beaten-down health care stocks, emphasizing "buy low so that one day you can sell high or maybe not sell at all." He encourages investors to explore undervalued opportunities within the sector that have strong fundamentals and growth prospects.

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2. Holiday Market Dynamics with Carly Garner

As the episode progressed into the holiday season, Cramer introduced Carly Garner, co-founder of Carly Trading and author of Higher Probability Commodity Trading, to discuss the unusual market behaviors typically observed during this period.

a. U.S. Dollar (USD)

• Recent Rally: The USD index surged from 100 to 108, a significant move rarely seen without substantial economic catalysts.
• Potential Reversal: Garner suggests that such a sharp increase may lead to a "holiday price squeeze" followed by a reversal in early 2025. "The dollar index is now facing significant resistance near the 108 level," she noted. (Timestamp: 21:45)
• Historical Context: Comparisons were drawn to previous instances where the dollar peaked during economic uncertainty, such as post-Trump's first term and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Timestamp: 22:10)

b. Japanese Yen (JPY)

• Depreciation Trends: The yen has been weakening for years, with a brief rebound in August before resuming its downward trajectory.
• Carry Trade Vulnerabilities: Garner warned of the precarious position of the yen in carry trades, predicting further declines that could lead to significant market disruptions if unwinding occurs. (Timestamp: 23:00)

c. Gold (XAU)

• Unusual Correlations: Contrary to typical safe-haven behavior, gold prices soared while treasury prices declined, disrupting expected positive correlations.
• Investment Outlook: With treasuries likely to form a strong floor in 2025, gold may face downward pressure as interest rates make other assets more attractive. (Timestamp: 24:30)

d. 30-Year Treasury Futures (TY1!)

• Historical Performance: Garner highlighted that the current stretch has been the worst multi-year period for treasury holders.
• Future Projections: A potential reversal might occur if yields fall below 4.14%, potentially boosting treasury prices and positively impacting the stock market. (Timestamp: 25:00)

Summary Insight: The holiday season often brings low trading volumes and unusual market movements. Garner's analysis suggests a likelihood of mean reversions in currencies, gold, and treasury futures in early 2025, urging investors to remain cautious and prepared for potential reversals.

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3. Semiconductor Space and Broadcom's Surge

The episode shifted focus to the semiconductor industry, particularly examining Broadcom's impressive stock performance amid the AI chip boom.

• Broadcom's AI Chip Success: Broadcom reported a 220% revenue increase for fiscal year ending October 2024, driven by its AI chip segment. "Management notes their revenue was up 220% to $12.22 billion," Cramer stated. (Timestamp: 30:00)
• Custom Accelerators: The company's development of custom accelerators (XPUs) for AI data centers, targeting major hyperscalers like Alphabet and ByteDance, positions Broadcom for substantial growth.
• Market Impact: Cramer pointed out that while Broadcom's rise benefits the AI infrastructure market, it indirectly bolsters Nvidia's demand, as hyperscalers continue to rely on Nvidia's GPUs alongside Broadcom's solutions. (Timestamp: 31:15)

Investment Insight: Despite Broadcom's stock soaring by 38% over a few days, Cramer remains bullish, highlighting the non-zero-sum nature of AI infrastructure investments and the complementary roles of different semiconductor companies.

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4. Lightning Round: Rapid-Fire Caller Questions

In the Lightning Round segment, Cramer addressed various stock-related questions from callers, providing concise insights and recommendations.

a. Paramount Pictures (Caller at 08:42)

• Jim's Take: Cramer dismissed Paramount as a poor investment choice, advising listeners to seek more promising opportunities like Disney. (Timestamp: 08:45)

b. PepsiCo (Caller at 09:33)

• Investment Advice: With PepsiCo down 40 points over the year, Cramer acknowledged its decent yield (3.5%) but cautioned about potential regulatory risks. He suggested starting a position due to its attractive valuation. (Timestamp: 09:43)

c. Levi Strauss (Caller at 10:08)

• Stock Evaluation: Cramer viewed Levi's stock as intriguing with a 3% yield and 13 times earnings, though he preferred Ralph Lauren for better prospects. (Timestamp: 10:16)

d. Ford Motor Company (Caller at 39:02)

• Cautionary Advice: Despite being a quintessential American company, Cramer cited warranty issues and consistent quarterly misses as reasons to avoid investing in Ford. (Timestamp: 39:11)

e. AST SpaceMobile (Caller at 40:02)

• Speculative Nature: Cramer categorized AST as highly speculative within the quantum computing realm, advising that it should constitute only a minor portion of one's portfolio. (Timestamp: 42:06)

Summary Insight: The Lightning Round emphasized Cramer's focus on fundamental analysis and risk management, encouraging investors to look beyond surface-level performance and consider long-term viability.

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5. Final Thoughts: Critique of Business Media's Fed Forecasting

Concluding the episode, Cramer expressed frustration with business media's obsessive focus on predicting Federal Reserve moves.

• Analogy to Football: Comparing Fed forecasting to prematurely analyzing football plays, Cramer illustrated the futility of speculating on events without concrete data. (Timestamp: 44:30)
• Investment Focus: He urged listeners to concentrate on actionable investment strategies rather than getting bogged down by incessant and often inaccurate Fed predictions.
• Long-Term Perspective: Emphasizing the importance of staying informed and adaptable, Cramer reiterated his commitment to helping investors find profitable opportunities without succumbing to market noise. (Timestamp: 45:15)

Conclusion: Cramer's episode championed disciplined investing, highlighting undervalued sectors and stocks, while cautioning against the distractions of speculative forecasting. His actionable insights and strategic recommendations aimed to empower investors to make informed decisions amidst market volatility.

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Notable Quotes

• On Medtronic's Comeback: "Medtronic is paying you to wait for a comeback." (13:50)
• On Edwards Life Sciences Upgrade: "When I read the upgrade I found myself pretty convinced that better days are indeed ahead for Edwards." (14:50)
• On Holiday Market Reversals: "We often see inexplicable, unsustainable moves at this point in December, that is a holiday price squeeze followed by reversal come January." (21:45)
• On Business Media's Fed Forecasting: "Our job is the job of the person who thinks it's right to make judgments early about things they can't possibly be right on." (45:30)

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Key Takeaways

1. Health Care Opportunities: Invest in undervalued health care stocks with strong fundamentals and growth prospects, such as Medtronic, Edwards Life Sciences, and IDEX Laboratories.
2. Holiday Market Behaviors: Be mindful of unusual market dynamics during the holiday season, with potential reversals in currencies, gold, and treasury futures projected for early 2025.
3. Semiconductor Growth: Broadcom's success in AI chips underscores the growing demand in AI infrastructure, presenting lucrative investment opportunities.
4. Disciplined Investing: Focus on long-term value and fundamental analysis rather than succumbing to speculative market movements or media forecasts.

This episode of "Mad Money" provided a comprehensive overview of strategic investment opportunities and critical market analyses, equipping listeners with the knowledge to navigate complex financial landscapes effectively.

Transcript

[Jim Cramer]

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[Merrill Lynch]

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Man Money. Welcome to Crame America. A few of my friends. I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just entertaining, but to put things in context. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC tweet, beach and Kramer. Sometimes we forget what we're trying to do around here. We're looking to find good stocks at good prices and buy them. We want to sell bad stocks at any price and and kick them out of our portfolio. Yet somehow, on a not so hot day where The Dow tumbled 268 points, SB lost.39%. Nasdaq shed 0.32%. We tend to feel like it's only worth only stocks that manage to go up today, this session. Everything else, a total loser. You got to get rid of them. I get this feeling myself. You know, I was a trader for a considerable part of my life. Today would be a day where I'd be looking for opportunities, taking them while casting aside others that weren't in keeping with that day's action. Often we start from scratch on a given day. No positions on our sheets. There would be points where we were up a great deal at the hedge fund at some point during the year. And from there we just day trade. Oh, it was huge amount of fun. We only commit a small portion of our capital. We didn't want to give up our year's gains. Our rules are pretty simple. One, don't go against the tide. If people are buying the drug stocks, find the best drug stock. On a day like today, we probably would have bought some J&J good yield, decent prospects, great balance sheet, down big from the high to make sure you aren't buying something that's headed down after you purchase it. Just take it out immediately. You get trapped. 3. Be mindful that you can't turn a bad trade into an investment that you kept overnight. That's the heart of a loser. If a trade doesn't work, you have to throw it out. Throw in a towel by the closing bell. Does any of this sound familiar? I bet it does to you because you hear it all day. I think it defines much of what we see and hear about stocks these days. It's as if everyone I watch has plopped down on that trading desk with us during one of these day trading modes where we had so much software, so much knowledge, yet it still is a fraction by the way of what modern traders have. Their artificial intelligence these days can find out the precise correlations among the drug companies. No seat of the pants knowledge like we had. They'll know whether Merck or Pfizer would work best. Merck with no news or Pfizer with news that amounted to something good simply because it wasn't bad, as was the case today. Now all of this is very useful if you're a trader, but I think as investors we're putting on mental shackles if we behave like this. Remember back on my hedge fund, our whole goal was day trading, which is scalp pennies from the flow. That's a lot of risk for not much reward. It's better zero in on dollars for the big picture. That's what I want you to do. And what exactly is the big picture? How about something that says we're now experiencing a nine day losing streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the longest since February of 1978 when if you can imagine, we had double digit inflation and a severe lack of leadership. The federal funds rate was at 6.75% at the time, but it would finish the year 10%. Wow. So we were at the start of a horrendous decline in the abyss of the late 1970s with super high interest rates. Now we're still nearing the beginning of a rate cutting cycle. Don't listen to others, you say, well still my it's not a cutting cycle. It is. And it may or may not go slowly. Does it matter? It's very different from the similar losing streak in 1978, a time when most of you were not alive and I was living in my Fort Fairmont. What else is part of the big picture now? How about the fact that we're heavily oversold when we've experienced this level of oversold negativity. Minus 5.2% on this S and P short range oscillator. I swear by only twice in 2020. For one time in April where the S and P bottom at 4, 9, 67 then advanced to 5, 6, 6, 8. Another time in November when the S and p had sunk to 5701, then rallied to 6900. These were two of the best buying opportunities we had the entire year. But you had to be willing to go against the prevailing attitude of negativity with tons of articles and news stories about how something terrible was about to happen. Now, I know there are plenty of major events coming up. I didn't say major negative events, just events. We have a big Fed meeting tomorrow where we pretty much know what will happen. There could be dissents, there could be members of the Open Market Committee who are more hawkish than others. But we'll still have a Fed chief who's data dependent. Data dependent and doesn't want to get too far ahead of himself, even if the commentators all wish he would. We know that there are inflationary tariffs in the wind, but we don't know their size, their breadth or their impact. But that's why we're already oversold. People saw this coming, they're worried and they took action ahead. They dumped stocks so they wouldn't be long or own as much when the meeting occurred. Now we got some leadership stocks that are being torn apart, the heaviest of which of course is in video, up 163% for the year, but down 22 points from its recent high. Points, not percent. Gee wheelers. What exactly is the matter with Nvidia, down 8 out of the last 9 days? I think nothing. Air mainly in the most important space of the entire market. It's riding a wave accurately depicted by seasoned warrior Matt Murphy, the CEO of Marvell Technology, who. Who said something amazing on this show about the size of the opportunity just last night. Listen, we are in an unprecedented AI supercycle for AI as a service, but also for the Silicon TAM underneath it. This is unbelievable. I've been doing this for 30 years. I've been through every major one of these cycles. PCs, smartphones, digital cameras, cloud computing, you name it. This one's bigger than all of them. Nvidia is not being dethroned by any competitor. Even the companies that are trying to compete against it are faithful customers who have no choice but to try to develop something. Because Nvidia can't supply, they can't supply enough chips to meet the demand. For most customers I think it's just profit taking after monster run. It has been a monster run, hasn't it? But understand on January6nvidia found 2025nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang will be presenting a keynote at C S the largest tech expo in the world and he's used that podium before. It introduced many of the innovations that made Nvidia the 1 most valuable companies on earth when will the Stock bottom? I always let a stock tell me what to do. Nvidia bottoms when the stock rolls over at the open, then hits a level on big volume where it stops for working its way back up to well above where it opened. That people is called a crescendo. Bottom when everyone of size who wants to get out has done so. No need to jump the gun, but keep in mind that if you don't own any, you might want to wait to right ahead of the ces. Oh, and another thing, please, if the stock opens up, please do not buy it. It rarely works. Final element of the picture. We have been working on a series that tries to come up with bargains. Stocks that have been sold down so hard that they only take into account the negatives and none of the positives. The stocks I'm looking at are beaten up. They look like death warmed over. In other words, they're precisely the kind of stocks that I tried so hard to avoid when I was day trading, but that made perfect sense if you're investing. We were disciplined traders trying hard not to start a position and would to cut our losses no matter what. At 3:45pm that's not what you want to do. Here's the bottom line now. The goal is to build a position that starts somewhere well below where it was simply because it has gone out of style in the current version of the Wall street fashion show and is being hit with heavy end of the year tax selling like some of the health care stocks that we're profiling tonight. You know what? You know why you do this? Because of the overarching principle behind good investing. Buying low so that one day you can sell high. Or maybe not. So let's take questions go to Bill in New Jersey. Bill Bill.

[Caller]

Yeah. What do you think about Paramount?

[Jim Cramer]

Jim over don't go. Done. Let's skip it. Let's find something that works. I think that Disney, which by the way is pulled back nicely, travel trustee what a great level to buy Disney is maybe even tomorrow. Let's go To Bill in New Jersey. Bill.

[Caller]

Hey. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year.

[Jim Cramer]

Same to you.

[Caller]

I always. I like when you put them props up there. Remember the apples and the PepsiCo and.

[Jim Cramer]

All that now, back the old days. Yes, the old days. I'm down here on the floor of the stock exchange. You feel a little constrained, frankly. But that's all right. That's just. I like to tell the truth. No one likes to tell the truth but me. I don't know why that is. Go ahead.

[Caller]

You're the best. That's why I'm not a hack.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you, buddy. Thank you. What's up?

[Caller]

Yeah, it's PepsiCo. They're down 40 points in one year. And I can't figure it out for a whole life of me. I like the stock still. Should I buy more or should I jump out?

[Jim Cramer]

Someone asked me that. Someone asked about PepsiCo at the total Wine and More on Saturday in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. And I said, look, it's not expensive. Yields three and a half. Not a bad level to start a position. But understand you're up against GOP1s, or at least the elusive story of what GOP ones can do to a company that owns Frito Lay Craig in North Carolina. Craig. Hello, Jim.

[Caller]

Greetings from Scarlet.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, man. What's going on?

[Caller]

Thanks for taking my call. I enjoy the show.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course.

[Caller]

Question. Question for you about a good old American brand, Levi.

[Jim Cramer]

You know People magazine? I was reading on Twitter the People that were letter X, whatever, that People magazine says that they make the best jean jackets. I didn't know anyone else made the jean jackets. I think that the product is terrific. The stock itself at 3% with a 3% yield and 13 times earnings is intriguing. But Ralph Lauren is better. R L. As we head in the new year, it's worth reminding ourselves that all we really need is the overarching principle behind good invest. Buy low so you can ultimately sell high or not sell at all. I'm ant money today. I'm giving you part two of my Opportunities in Health Care series where I'll run through some names in the medtech space that I think are worth watching. Then is a January reversal in store for some of the moves we've seen that are powerful in December. I'm going off the charts. And the currencies and the Treasuries and gold. And later, what's behind Broadcom's monster move on earnings? Everyone is asking. I'm tracking the semi stocks on the heels of this action, so stay with Kramer.

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[Merrill Lynch]

This episode is brought to you by Merrill With a dedicated Merrill Advisor. You get a personalized plan for your financial goals and when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company what would you like the Power to Do Investing Involves Risk Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member.

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[Jim Cramer]

All week we're running a series of one of the most hated sectors in the market, and that is the health care sector. We're looking for high quality stocks that have come down dramatically from their highs. And look, in a market that's run so much, at least before today, it's worth combing through the laggards because that's the only place you can find good value. Like I mentioned last night, there are 62 health care stocks, the SB 500, and they're down an astounding average of 19.7% from their highs now sometimes because they're real risks in the group. Look, just yesterday President Elect Trump talked about the need to knock out the middlemen from the drug industry. Think the pharmacy benefit managers and drug Distributors. It seemed like taking apart the PBMs could become a real cause celebrity of this administration. But I also think that much of the risk is starting to get priced in at this point. And that's why you know what, we're going subsector by subsector this week. Find opportunities in health care. Last night it was pharma and biotech. Tonight it's the medical device and medical technology group. Very different. On average the medtech stocks in the S and p are down 17.6% from the highs. Many of the players are down less than 10%. I mean think Avid Labs, which is a stock that I'll be talking about at the Thursday meeting. It's a big club name, intuitive, surgical ish. Like them very much. Stryker, Boston Scientific, fantastic company, been on a couple of times. These are just fantastic. You know, look, these are, let's just say very successful this year and therefore they're up a lot. And we're looking for stocks that are deep discounts so they won't qualify for this segment. Which brings me to Medtronic. Yeah, the medical device company that focus on cardiovascular disease, neuroscience, robotic surgery and diabetes. Full disclosure, Medtronics been a long term Underperformer up just 12% over the past decade. The stock had a big run during the early parts of the pandemic, reaching new all time highs. But the gains didn't last. By the time Metronic bottom in late 2023, the stock was actually below where it traded March 2020 during the depths of the COVID crash. That's miserable. But I'm interested in Medtronic here because the company seems to be making a turn getting back its momentum for the recent spate of weakness in health care. In late October the stock had reached its highest level since August 2022. But in the weeks since the middle, since the metronomes plunged down 12% from that high. You know what, it's exhausting, but I think it's a steal. Metroid's had a bunch of successful product launches in recent quarters with around 120 product approvals over the past 12 months in key geographies. Very exciting stuff in transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Plus pubs are pulse field ablation and leadless pacemakers. Not to mention new functionality for their Hugo robotic surgery platform which I find very interesting but not a lot of people are talking about. This wave of innovation has translated to much better numbers over the past couple of years. Starting with eight straight quarters of mid single digit organic sales growth. Medtronics earnings were basically flat in the last full fiscal year, which ended in April. But in the current 2025 fiscal year, the earnings are expected to grow by almost 5%. And if you believe the consensus estimates, that should accelerate to 7% in fiscal 2026 and 8% in fiscal 2027. When Medtronic reported its most recent numbers in mid November, the stock sold off a bit. The actual quarter was strong. Management even raised their full year organic sales growth forecast and their earnings forecast. So I'd be looking to buy Medtronic in the weakness with the stock selling for just under 14 times next year's earnings estimate. That's pretty amazing. It's it's one of the cheapest names in the Medtech group. And hey, Metronics paying you to wait for a comeback. It's got a bountiful 3.4% divide, very safe, best in the medtech space by a wide margin. What else might work? Well, how about this down outer Edwards Life Sciences gw this leader in structural heart solutions like non invasive heart valve replacements used to be one of my favorite stocks until the Fed started raising rates in 2022 and anything with a high price earnings bold will got eviscerated. This thing's made a couple comeback attempts over the past two years, but both they ultimately fail. This year that failure happened in dramatic fashion July. The stock fell an astounding 31% in a single session after a disappointing quarter that included lower than expected sales for the company's core transcatheter aortic valve replacement business. Since then, Edwards has been working its way back higher even as they reported another weakest quarter in late October. At this point the stock's down 23% from two week high, down 44% from its all time high in late 2021. Why bother with Edwards Life Sciences? Well, yesterday analysts at bank of America upgraded this thing from neutral buy, which seemed like a bold call for stocks. Been out of favor for a while now, but when I read the upgrade I found myself pretty convinced that better days are indeed ahead for Edwards. The B of A analyst cited a catalyst rich schedule for the company in 2025 and 2026. Lots of potential growth drivers coming up. They also argue that the company's in a sweet spot in the transcatheter aortic valve replacement space, which is a high growth market with significant unmet needs. With the upgrade, the bank of America analysts raised their price target on this $74 stock from 82 to 90. And you know what? When I read it, I think I think they're onto something, which is why I think Edwards is worth owning here. Very compelling piece of research. I usually don't pivot like that, but I liked it. Finally, how about a pet spike? How about idex? ID Laboratory that's a leader in veterinary diagnostics. When you started the show used to be one of our favorites. They do software, water microbiology testing. This one ties in with that immunization of pet steam I've been using about 15 years. Remains alive well, but after an increase incredible run from below 200 March of 2020 to an all time high of about 700 2021. This has been lost the waters for a couple of years. That action mirrors what we've seen in many other pet stocks because after a huge boom of pet adoption during the pandemic, there are a couple of lean years that followed, including lower vet visit trends. Something that impacts idex. Their latest quarter was of the mix variety. A revenue missed paired with 12 cent earnings beat off a $2.68 basis. But IDEX trimmed its full year revenue and merely reiterated its earnings forecast. So the outlook is not so great. So the stock got hit response. In the weeks after the quarter, the company also announced a CFO departure. Although that didn't impact the stock as much as I thought it would. I'd actually become let's say it's making a comeback since its late October breakdown, but it's still down about 27% from its March highs. I think the company should benefit from a continue to come back for vet visits, which has been happening but at a slower pace than many expected. As we get further and further removed from the pandemic, I expect everything pet related to keep trending back towards normal levels. And in the context of idex, normal means strong secular growth thanks to increased Fed visits and tremendous pricing power. Clearly, veterinary testing at its highs in 2021 I think sold for 76 times the next year's earnings estimates. Now just 36 times extra 37. I see it yet I think that's a compelling entry point. Not ironclad, but pretty good bottom line. If you're looking for markdown medical device stocks, here they are. Medtronic, Edwards Life Sciences and IDEX Laboratories. But we're far from done. Tune back in tomorrow for some fresh ideas in the life science and services space all week from more healthcare stocks that have pulled back to the point where I think they're just too darn cheap to ignore. Man Money's back after the break.

[Merrill Lynch]

This episode is brought to you by Merrill with a dedicated Merrell advisor, you get a personalized plan for your financial goals. And when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to email.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do Investing Involves Risk Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Incorporated Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member SIPC and now.

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[Jim Cramer]

As we head into the depths of the holiday season, all sorts of markets experience low trading volume with many pivotal futures contracts expiring between Thanksgiving and Christmas. For example, December currency and treasury futures drop off the board this week and that can create some really weird dynamics, which is why tonight we're going off the charts with help of Carly Garner. You know, she's a terrific technician. She's the co founder of the Carly Trading, author of Higher Probability Commodity Trading. We've got to get a better sense of this moment because it is a little wacky as Garner sees it. We often see inexplicable, unsustainable moves at this point in December, that is Liquidity returns after the new year. Those moves reverse White House. He thinks currencies, treasuries and gold are all prime candidates for what she calls a holiday price squeeze followed by reversal come January. Let's start with the US Dollar. Regarding the dollar went parabolic for much of the fourth quarter. We can see when you look at the dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket foreign currencies, it rallied from 100 okay, so right here to 108 in a relatively short period of time. Joe, this is actually a huge move for for currencies they don't go like this. As Garner sees that the dollar deserved to rally. America's economy is already much better shape than most developed countries and we've got a business friendly White House. More however, she wonders if the Trump trades already priced in. Remember during Trump's first term we got a weaker dollar, which is what most presidents want because a weaker currency helps boost exports. You can see Trump's owner trips it. At the same time, Gartner points out that algorithmic traders have gotten carried away with a long dollar short ten year treasury note futures strategy. These markets have settled in the opposite direction of whopping 92% of the time over the last 180 trading days. Some of the euro currency futures contract and the 10 year note have settled in the same direction 95% of the time. According to Garner, extreme correlations like these are generally a sign of bandwagon trading. I love that term bandwagon trading that often overshoots fundamentals. Now, when you look at the consensus Bullish sentiment Index, which Paul polls industry insiders, 74% are bullish on the dollar and a mere 26% are bullish on Europe. When you see such a lopsided reading, it typically means that buyers have already bought what they want. Sure enough, the dollar index is now facing significant resistance near the 108 level. Garner thinks that leaves the greenback vulnerable to a sharp reversal in early 2025. Doesn't help that the relative strength index, which we see down here, an important momentum indicator, is looking pretty sluggish here. Better book your tickets for European vacation While our currency still has a ton of purchasing power overseas, Karna also points out that the dollar index has only broken out above the Trend line, currently at 108, a few times in the last decade. It happened once after Trump's first victory in 2016 before collapsing for much of 2017. It happened again and Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Sorry, sloppy. They're creating a global flight to safety trade. If the dollar starts slipping like it did at the beginning of Trump's first term, Garner wouldn't be surprised if the dollar index makes its way back to the low 90s again. You're looking at these are big, big moves. Next, check out the monthly chart of the Japanese yen. The yen's been getting pulverized for years, except for a brief moment this August when that yen carry trade imploded. But that rebound didn't last long. The yen's giving back these nearly all these gains, and Garner's betting it will keep heading lower during the holiday season. In Gardner's view, investors have been spoiled by the fruits of borrowing yen and low interest rates. The so low versus where it was borrowing in low interest rates to buy higher yielding dollar denominated assets. This form of leverage can deliver great returns for years, even decades. But it can't last forever, and when it ends, usually ends poorly. The lower the end descends, the more dangerous it becomes. A retest of the breakout trend line will support the currency near 0.64 cents, but a full retest of that downtrend line dates back to 2 to 2004 and that could be in play if that happens in the yen could drop to.6150. If so, the carry trade would be highly vulnerable to another round of unwinding, which would prompt another panic and remember, cause our stock market to get hit severely earlier this year, looking back to history, the yen peaked during the global financial crisis. The world was convinced that this was a safe haven asset. However, in 2024 nobody has much reason to go wrong. Japan's currency at the end peaked during the financial crisis. Maybe it can Bottom during this moment of economic and stock market euphoria, Garner notes that as the yen has been making lower lows, the relative strength index hasn't fallen, which is generally a positive sign. By the way, the yen and the 10 year note have traveled the same direction 92% of the time of the West 180 trading days. So strength in the yen translates into firmer treasury prices and lower interest rates. Remember, all this stuff's interrelated, which is why we bring it to and well of course. Which brings me to the next monthly chart and this is gold. Gold in yellow versus the 30 year treasury futures Blue There are many absurd correlations with Treasuries here, but you'd expect a consistently positive correlation between Treasuries and gold because they're both safe haven assets yet nowhere to be found in this environment. Gold soared as treasury prices have plummeted and garnered you. Gold's in the process of putting in a significant top for the you. Goldberg's out there like me listen up. Significant top While Treasuries are likely to put in significant bottom if only just due to what she calls mean reversion. Keep in mind the yield on the 30 year is pretty high right now, which makes it a heck of a lot more attractive than gold as a storeholder value because gold doesn't pay interest. Finally, let's look at the 30 year treasury futures in isolation. The monthly chart Garner get this. This is so important. Garner notes that this has been the worst multi year stretch for treasury holders in history and she thinks there's a window of opportunity for the bears to keep molding bond prices because existing trends tend to continue and get overextended at the point at this point in the year. As I said at the top of the segment, however, the 30 are still holding above its uptrend line year 116 where it yields 4.6. At the same time when you look at the CFTC commitment of traders data or cotton data, large speculators have one of the largest net short positions of all time. Betting as the ten year treasury futures. Everyone's betting as bond prices. They're betting that we'll see bigger budget deficits or more inflation. Don't forget of course on tariffs which will tank the bond market. But man, the last time Trump took office the yield in the 30 was more than a percent and a half lower than it is around now. Around 3% peaked at 3.4%, stood at 2.5% when he left office. Throw in the potential for weak dollar and Garners betting the treasury prices will have a strong, strong floor in 2025. If we do get an uptick in bond prices next year she says the yield on the 30 year needs to be to fall below 4.14. We can confirm a trend and I can just tell you that if we do this, we get there stock market like that. And that's my view, not hers but I have to put it out there. Bottom line. The charts interpreted by Garner suggested some of the popular trades going into the end of the year could reverse hard if you get too complacent. As we turn to the calendar year 2025, one more reason to stay on your toes and to pause before you presume that long term interest rates are inevitably headed higher, which of course would then drive our stock market lower. Let's take questions. Let's go to Robert in New York. Robert.

[Caller]

Hey Jim, I just want to wish you a happy holidays. Merry Christmas to you and your family, Lisa, and to your staff, Emma, who's phenomenal. I hope she gets a good bonus but.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh that's terrific. Thank you so much for those kind words. Thank you. They have got to help.

[Caller]

Okay, this stock just achieved a 52 week high with shares trading at an impressive almost $73 the other day. You made, you made me a boatload of money on this company a while ago. And some Wall street writers are saying what they did today was a bull financial move. They're offering 750 million in convertible senior notes due in 2029. But they're also purchasing over $300 million in Class A common stock, which I think is kind of smart in a way. Okay, Max Leftchin is a genius like you and Jim. Do you agree I should buy more and sell much later?

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, Max Luftian is a genius. Don't put me in his category. He's really out there in terms of how bright he is. And you're right, buying the common stock was brilliant because otherwise people are going to short the common stock. I like a firm very much. I think it was very underpriced in the 30s. So therefore I can I'll tell you a firm block which is own, which of course is square block. Square and PayPal are the three fintech stocks that are going to continue to work in 2025. I know it sounds strange to bless a buy of a firm here, but I do. So let's go to Brian in Pennsylvania.

[Caller]

Brian, Jim, thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course.

[Caller]

Jim, I've been thinking about nuclear energy with regard to AI data centers. About 10% of my portfolio is in PSNG, which has some nuclear plants. But I'm wondering if I should be also be looking at Constellation, which is a bigger player in nuclear power. Do you think I should stick with PSEG or branch out into Constellation at this point?

[Jim Cramer]

I want you to stick with P and G until it's peg, until I see Constellation go lower. There's too much hot money in Constellation ceg and you'll see it. Just watch the tape in the morning. What's known as the crawl. It's just boom, boom, boom. There's so much hot money in it. I don't like to be involved with hot money. All right, listen, the charts doesn't differ by garner session. If you get too complacent heading into 2025 with the trends that we're seeing now, the popular trades will see a reverse themselves. So you got to stay on your toes. My format money, including my look into what Broadcom's big run up could mean for other chip companies. Plus, on the eve of the next Fed meeting, I'm breaking down my playbook on how to react to the early commentary. And of course, all your calls. Rapid Fire, tonight's edition of the Lightning round. So stay with Kramer. What the heck is happening in the semiconductor space? There's been some wild action over the past week. It started last Thursday when Broadcom, which we own for the Travel Trust, reported technically mixed quarter. Even though the results weren't perfect, the Stock still soared 24% on Friday before tacking on 11%. Yesterday was easy, although I pulled back more than 4% today. So how does Broadcom trade like you got a takeover bid in the afterth of a seemingly just okay quarter? Because the headline numbers don't tell the whole story here. Putting all that aside, we learned that Broadcom is having tremendous success with its AI chips, which is all investors care about right now at the moment, as you know. More important, management made some comments about potential big new customers for the AI chip business. The focus for Broadcom right now is on developing technology for AI data centers, including especially custom accelerators, meaning advanced processors that they call XP use. This is a business that's been building and building throughout the year as Broadcom's customers race to build out their AI infrastructure. And with last week's earnings report, management noted that their revenue for fiscal 2020 24, the 12 months ending in October, was up 220% to a 12.22 billion 220%. And that was even the best part. Even before this quarter, we knew that Broadcom was making XP use for at least three hyperscaler customers. Management never confirmed who they are, but they're widely believed to be Alphabet metal platforms and ByteDance, which is the company that owns Tik Tok. On last week's call, the Broadcom presence CEO Hawkins been on our show. He gave more detail than ever before on how he expects his semiconductor business to evolve over three years. And his vision had investors drooling first hand. The Broadcom's not a chip business has bottomed and should grow from last year's base probably at a mid single digit clip. Now it doesn't have much appeal, I know that. But it's still major good news that the legacy part of the business, which by the way still makes up 60% of the company revenue this year, will no longer be a drag on the rest of the business. Second, there are major positive developments on this XPU and networking equipment front. Hyperscalers can't get enough of this stuff. While we knew Broadcom had three major hyperscaler customers and we knew they were spending fortunes with AI infrastructure, Tan explained that he expects each of these three customers will deploy clusters of 1 million XP use in 2027. I mean that is shocking. Tan projects that these three customers alone will represent a serviceable, addressable market. Market. That's his term SAM of 60 to 90 billion dollars. And that is incredible. For perspective, Broadcom's entire semi business racked up just over 30 billion in revenue last year. Of course this one company won't get that entire serviceable addressable market. But even winning a decent chunk of it would be huge for their AI business. And the cherry on top it was the news that Broadcom has engaged two additional hyperscaler customers, which represents additional upside to the 2027 addressable. Market forecast. Now look, I don't want to get too excited about this, but it's hard not to be. And clearly the market's more than happy to get ahead of itself and digest that news instantly. So that's the reason why the stock jumped a combined 38% on Friday and Monday and made a lot of club members happy. But there's also been some important pin action in the group since then. First, what Broken had to say last week about the success of the custom accelerator business that echoed similar commentary from Marvell Technologies which we had on the show last night. Marvell reported solid results earlier this month and also made similarly bullish comments about the trajectory of their custom silicon business. And that's why that stock jumped 23% in a single session after earlier this month and then jumped another 10% last Friday. Response to Broke on Quarter now clearly this is an area where the hyperscalers will be spending a lot of money. But almost immediately investors began to wonder if these custom silicon compliant companies are going to be such big winners. Who are the relative losers now? One incredibly knee jerk, jerk and wrong answer. As I mentioned, top of the show is that in video might be getting displaced. I think that's one reason why the Stock's down nearly 15% from its member highs, including a big pullback today. Although it's also because Amazon's making chips that matter too and Microsoft making noises that it won't be so hard to get chips. There are no shortage. I don't know, every long life is coming against this stock that you know I like the most, which is Nvidia. I think these concerns are totally misplaced versus Marvel CEO Matt Murphy told us last night. This market's going to be big enough for a number of winners. Second, while the hopper scale is clearly like the custom chips they're getting from Marvel and Broadcom, these solutions still aren't as powerful as Nvidia's industry leading graphics processors units or GPUs which they can't live without. Don't forget that Nvidia also has an enormous moat in the form of software ecosystem to go with this hardware. Never ever sell. Nvidia reports that the hyperscalers will spend ridiculous amounts of money on AI customers buy Marvell or Broadcom and they buy Nvidia too. It is so not a zero sum game and I've done so much research on this people, it just isn't. It's a win for everybody. But the other chip maker that's been trading like a loser is AMD Another charitable trust holding. Now this is different. Well, AMD was clearly far, far behind Nvidia in making these ultra fast GPUs. It was seen as really the only chip maker that even come close. But the fact that these hyperscalers are quite interested in custom silicon solutions from the likes of Broadcom Marvell has investors wondering if these ancillary chips might actually be the next best option. Not AMD. That's a big reason why the stock's down 12% since Marvel reported two weeks ago and it's now down 45% from its highs in March. So that's what's happened. But what are we doing about it? Okay, long story short, the travel trust taking some profits and Broadcom, it's had such a huge move. We don't like to be greedy. We're standing pattern and video of course. Amd, okay. Even after it's come down, I got to trim some. It's just not getting the kind of traction I thought it would at this with this chips. If we got Broadcom and Nvidia, we don't need to keep sticking our necks out on amd. New. New is a new theme. We're just aren't seeing the demand we thought we would for AMD's chips. And we haven't seen a big move into APC either, which they also have a big stake in. I'm going to talk more about AMD at our Thursday noon CNBC Investing club call and it will be plaintiff. Here's the bottom line. The big news from Marvell Tech and Broadcom is that the hyperscalers are increasingly interested in custom silicon designs. And we care about the hyperscalers because they're spending fortunes to build these data centers. That's obviously good news for Marvel, good news for Broadcom, but it's also a negative impact on GPU makers like Nvidia and amd. Now I am not worried about Nvidia as its business remains on fire. Its GPUs are fine. And I've got to tell you, the strong demand from Marvel broke on means strong demand for for Nvidia. But amd, it's tough. There's a reason why we're lagging out of this one for the Chapel Trust and it's everything I just said. Mid money is back after the break. It is time. It's time for the late round. Creative Wednesday. Ralph Cold Santa's talking to him. Bye bye bye. Don't know the talkwatches at the time. My staff prepares the graph. Why are we playing the sound and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Skeet dag time. Lightning round. Crash over. Steven in New York. Stephen. Stephen.

[Caller]

Yes.

[Jim Cramer]

Hi, Jim.

[Caller]

Thank you for being my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course.

[Caller]

I wanted to ask you about Ford Motor Company. Great American company.

[Jim Cramer]

It is a great American company, but it does have warranty problems that I think are going to come back to haunt it. And I had to sell for the Chapel Trust because it just kept missing the quarter. And that's no way to run a stock. Maybe. And maybe a car company, but not stock. Let's go to Brian, New Jersey. Brian.

[Caller]

Hey, Booyah, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah for all you do.

[Caller]

Paying it forward to us. Making a green holiday season. My question is Rigetti Computing. Rgpi.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so that's quantum computing. They are all the same. I mean, no, of course the actual companies aren't the same, but the stocks are. They're all parabolic. If you come in, you have to understand at this point it is pure speculation. It can keep going up, but they're all trading the same way. Anything that's quantum computing and most is related to how it's going to help healthcare. I am not a believer at this stage. I wish I caught them earlier. Let's go to Denise in Minnesota. Denise.

[Caller]

Hey. Hey there, Jim. Thank you so much. I'm not an Nvidia millionaire, but I am a Kramer millionaire, and I thank you for that.

[Jim Cramer]

Whoa. Thank you. You're quite welcome. Thank you for bringing it up.

[Caller]

So my question today is, as a retiree, I love dividends. What do you think of the dividend for Lyondale, Basil? Is it safe?

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. I can't say it's necessarily safe that all the chemical companies have similarly high yields. A lot of them are related to China and China weakness. And I think each one has to be explored on its own. And that when this cycle, this cycle stays bad and the Fed doesn't care, doesn't cut rates quickly enough, a lot of these cups copies may end up to be, let's say, dicer than you'd like to be. How about that? I want to be polite about it. Let's go to Robert in Texas.

[Caller]

Robert, hello, Mr. Kramer. This is Robert from the great state of Texas. My question is stock ticker alt. I bought it under $5. And so I've made a lot of profit, but it's just going up and down daily. It's making me mad.

[Jim Cramer]

It's trading with. It's trading with Elite Li Lilly because a lot of people feel it's got similar drugs for different issues. Like obesity, Eli Lilly trades, like death. What can I tell you? I mean these things, these stocks all trade badly right now. It can come back. But you have to understand that right now health care is so out of fashion. Doesn't matter how good it is. Let's go to Jake in New York. Jake, I. Jim, hi, how are you doing?

[G]

I'm 18 years old. Recently I put solid amount of my portfolio into AFPs, Space Mobile. And I know you, you've spoken about it previously. But my thesis for it is the fact that, I mean, you mentioned Starlink. I feel like with Starlink it does something differently where it brings 5G directly to your phone and they also have a bunch of different. Right, different companies in the telecom industry that are agreeing and signing with them, like for different various contracts. So I just think that, I'm just asking, what are your thoughts on ASTs and the future outlook?

[Jim Cramer]

All right, AST, look again, it's quite quantum computing. There's a whole bunch of stocks that all are very speculative and if people want to speculate, I am not against it. I just don't want it to be a large part of your portfolio. This company's losing money hand over fist doesn't mean a stock can't go down. But it does mean that it's not worth anything other than a spec. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. Generally, I like most of the commentary we get about the stock market, even if I don't agree with it. When you're talking about what companies are doing well and what ones are beloved, which ones are dislike, I actually find it helpful. But on the eve of our regularly scheduled Fed meeting, I've got to tell you that there's one thing I hate about business media. The endless obsession with trying to guess the Fed's next moves. We spend a huge amount of time talking not just about what the Fed will do tomorrow, legitimate prognostication, but what it will do in the meeting after that and then the subsequent meeting and on and on. You can make useful predictions about the next Fed meeting when it's happening tomorrow, but it's very hard to say anything helpful about what they'll do three months from now. Try to guess as the fools are and they can throw you off the the cent of great investments. The arrogance of that kind of thinking drives me nuts. Even the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do with three months. How the heck can we know until we get closer to the event and see more data? As an old sports writer who covered football. I find an analogy might wake us up to how aggravating all this is. The Philadelphia Eagles just earned an important win against the Steelers last Sunday. There's much to discuss about what they did right or what they did wrong. Not to mention what the implications could be for this week's game against the Washington Commanders. But can you imagine if some gas bag went on and on about the Commander's game before the Eagles beat the Steelers? Imagine if we parsed every play of the Eagles against the Commanders ahead of a win or loss against a totally different team. That's insane, people. Yet that's exactly what happens as a matter of course in business media. Worse, there's endless chatter about what action you need to take based on the games after the commanders. How would you possibly know what will happen? How can you pretend to know what will happen? How could you participate? Could you anticipate? Anticipate what the head coach in this case Fed Chief Jay Powell, might do what he doesn't even know. Frankly, you know what, it's insulting to Powell that he's had to say over and over again that he's data dependent. But we dismiss that and tell you what he'll do anyway. Even as we have no idea what the facts will be in a few months, we act as if he's doctrinaire. So wrong. He's flexible. Now, I'm not saying that you shouldn't try to think that far ahead. When you're investing, you have to think far ahead. That's part of the process. But when it comes to the Fed's future moves, it's not helpful to fret about the details because you don't have the Feb always matter. The Washington always matters. But I talked to a huge number of individual investors, perhaps more than anyone else in the world, and this kind of prognostication is what drives people out of great stocks. They fear what can happen next. I'm not kidding. This is what happens. You should talk to them, in part because they think, oh no, we know the unfathomable. And they don't. And in part because they feel stupid for not knowing the unfathomable. What a shame. What a disservice. In the end, our job is the the job of the person who thinks it's right to make judgments early about things they can't possibly be right on. And me, someone trying to actually help investors make informed decisions about. Stocks have been diverging for ages. It's only grown worse throughout the years. They these guessers are really hurting you. I always want to do something valuable for investors to parse commentary that put things in context rather than spend hours and hours on a useless parlor game of what the Fed will do in the spring of 2025. It's just not worth my time and it is not worth your money. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise I'd find it just for you right here. Mad Money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.

[Vivgar]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer twas the nights before Christmas.

[Merrill Lynch]

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[Jim Cramer]

The fireplace of care knowing in about an hour stuffers would soon be there.

[Merrill Lynch]

Onto the rogue Walmart Express delivery went child full of wondrous things things in the st nick of time set let's.

[Jim Cramer]

Go get Express delivery in as fast as an hour even on Christmas Eve. Orders must be placed by 4pM Local.

[Indeed]

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[Jim Cramer]

Fees and restrictions apply.

[Merrill Lynch]

Express Delivery to y'all and to all a good night. Welcome to your Walmart.