Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/17/25

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer — December 18, 2025

Host: Jim Cramer | CNBC

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jim Cramer tackles the bursting “mini-bubble” in AI and technology stocks, highlighting problematic “lazy Susan deals” he sees recurring in the sector. Cramer dives deep into what investors should watch out for—especially regarding circular vendor-financing arrangements—and how the renewed market discipline will create future opportunities. He also gives his trademark rapid-fire take on a slew of individual stocks in the Lightning Round, reviews the biggest IPO of the year (Medline), unveils his top "buyback monsters," and, with guest Rob Pace from 100x, unpacks fresh consumer data across AI chatbots, streaming services, and telecoms.

---

Main Themes and Key Insights

I. The State of the AI Bubble & “Lazy Susan” Deals

Timestamps: 01:39 – 12:18

The Warning Signs of a Market Correction

• Cramer begins by recounting a personal experience from the dot-com era, describing a deal offer that would have been lucrative—but ultimately, his lawyer called it a "lazy Susan deal" and told him to walk away.
• He draws a parallel to the present, warning that similar vendor-financing arrangements—now celebrated as “partnerships”—are cropping up between giant tech players, particularly in AI:
  • Example: “Today we learned OpenAI’s in talks to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon, some of which would be spent on Amazon’s AI chips...Amazon’s giving OpenAI at least $10 billion, even as OpenAI has a very stretched balance sheet...In return, OpenAI will spend that money on Amazon’s chips instead of maybe using Nvidia's. Doesn’t that raise some eyebrows?” (03:30)
• Cramer argues these are modern versions of the deals that infamously sank companies in the dot-com bust: "To me it seems like a lazy Susan transaction of dot-com yore and that's why I’m saying the bubble popped a while ago and now it's deflating quickly. That's good. We want companies doing rational things, not delusional things...” (07:29)

Valuations & Market Impact

• AI valuations—especially OpenAI's—are called into question: “...I’m starting to think OpenAI is not that special. With no moat around ChatGPT and the deals are bad. It’s getting a real run for its money now. ChatGPT, that means the $500 billion valuation may be off the mark...” (05:57)
• Oracle's plummeting stock illustrates the point: after reporting a $300 billion five-year agreement with OpenAI, the details appear squishy, and the stock drops as investors grow wary.

The “Five Families” of Big Tech Spending

• Cramer analogizes the current situation to the “Godfather:”
  • “There are five families: Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and then the fifth, which is Oracle/OpenAI. Four of these companies are spending fortunes, but it's of their own cash. And it's in part to stop OpenAI which behaves like it has unlimited capital, but it doesn’t.” (09:21)
• He predicts discipline will return as bond markets lose appetite, financing dries up, and companies like Blue Owl Capital walk away from expensive deals.

Investor Guidance

• For now, Cramer urges caution: "It's simply not safe to bet on these stocks yet until someone says no to these kinds of circular deals and calls them for what they really are—lazy Susan deals..." (11:31)

---

II. Lightning Round – Stock Commentary

Timestamps: 12:18 – 14:32; 39:04 – 45:02

Cramer answers rapid-fire questions on listener stock picks, offering succinct buy/sell/hold advice:

• Roku: “It’s just been going up, up and up. That’s where the advertisers want to be.” (13:09)
• Take-Two Interactive: “Greatest entertainment franchise of all time [GTA]. I think you can buy some here and buy some a little lower.” (13:30)
• Robinhood: “Let Robinhood come down below that last dip...maybe go to 95 and then pull the trigger. If not, just say you missed it.” (13:50)
• (See “Lightning Round Highlights” below for more names and memorables)

---

III. Medline IPO Analysis

Timestamps: 14:32 – 21:00

The Deal’s Highlights

• Medline (medical supply/healthcare logistics) launches the largest IPO in four years, surging 41% on debut.
• Structure: “The public...will have a low teens percentage of the voting power. With existing pre-IPO shareholders controlling more than 80% of the voting power...the combo of three private equity firms, two sovereign wealth funds, and the founding Mills family.” (16:38)

Cramer’s Concerns

• Valuation is rich: “Stock’s trading something like 45 times my back-of-the-envelope earnings estimates. That’s a lot for a company with low double digit revenue growth. I’m uncomfortable.” (19:02)
• Lack of shareholder control and the looming risk of private equity cashing out puts “a ceiling on this one”.

Takeaway

• “I like the company, I really do, I wouldn’t buy the stock up here. I say wait for pullback...If that doesn’t happen...you just gotta say you missed it.” (20:35)

---

IV. “Buyback Monsters” — EPS Growth via Share Repurchase

Timestamps: 22:21 – 32:50

Cramer highlights 10 S&P 500 companies that have meaningfully reduced their share count—boosting earnings per share—over the past decade:

Top Performers and Notables

• Applied Materials: “Reduced its share count by 31%...stock up 1,200% since the end of 2015...terrific example of the kind of stock I suggest you buy...” (22:44)
• Apple: “A $4 trillion company that still managed to repurchase more than a third of its shares over the past decade.” (23:18)
• Ralph Lauren, Bank of New York Mellon (BNYM), Domino’s Pizza: Each have shrunk share count, but performance varies—Cramer likes their current positioning, especially Domino’s under CEO Russell Weiner.
• General Motors: “Simply retiring the new shares it issued during the financial crisis...stock’s exploded higher in recent months...still sells for under 7x next year’s estimates.” (24:50)
• AutoZone: “Shrunk its share count by roughly 89% since 1998—that's why the stock’s been a massive long-term outperformer. Always recommend.” (26:53)

Summary Guidance

• Buyback plus strong fundamentals can be a winning formula, “especially now that the market's fallen out of love...with the tech stocks.” (26:07)

---

V. Consumer Data: Chatbot Wars, Streaming, & Telco—w/ Rob Pace (100x)

Timestamps: 32:50 – 38:57

Segment Overview

Cramer and Rob Pace (CEO, 100x) analyze recent consumer survey data across three sectors: generative AI chatbots, streaming video, and wireless.

Key Consumer Market Insights

Chatbots: Is ChatGPT’s Lead Over?

• Claude (Anthropic) Surges: “We have a new champion and it’s Claude Anthropic. For the first time in our data...they’ve actually surpassed ChatGPT/OpenAI in terms of current users saying, ‘I’m going to use it more’ and likelihood to recommend.” (33:12 – Rob Pace)
• Gemini (Google) Closes the Gap: “Since Gemini 3 came out mid-November...they really fixed both the experience and the quality and they’ve closed the gap with OpenAI.” (33:58 – Rob)

Streaming: YouTube on the Rise

• YouTube Poised to Overtake: “Where we see real strength is in YouTube—and we see it with younger...and more diverse consumers...The key, Jim, is to think about share of time or share of attention.” (35:57 – Rob)
• Netflix's Moves Make Sense: Cramer confesses he changed his view—Netflix's move to acquire Warner Brothers now seems defensive rather than offensive, to shore up against YouTube's rise.

Wireless Carriers: T-Mobile Gains Ground

• T-Mobile Closing In: “T-Mobile has closed that [network] gap such that they're good enough and they do far better on price, value, plan options. Even the in-store experience now is superior.” (37:04 – Rob)
• Value Theme: Shifting market: “There’s one theme we’re seeing—our data is value.” (37:39 – Rob)

Broad Takeaway – Valuation Risks

• Cramer’s warning: “If I were one of these companies putting money in [AI] at a $500 billion valuation, I would think again...You’re not seeing fortress [positions] in our data for sure.” (38:15)

---

VI. Lightning Round Highlights

Timestamps: 39:04 – 45:02

Rapid verdicts on stocks—with signature Cramer commentary. Notables include:

• Pfizer: “Really good yield, not a lot of momentum. Just weak; hold.” (40:13)
• Elanco (animal pharma): “They are doing everything right. I am so impressed with the way they've turned that company around.” (40:55)
• Rocket Lab: “I think Rocket Lab is better than magical thinking...very good spec ahead of another big offering in the rocket world next year.” (41:03)
• LAC (Lithium Americas): “There’s nothing there for you. That’s a yesteryear stock.” (41:22)
• Deathtronic: “I've never been excited about that scoreboard business...not compelling enough to put your money into.” (41:31)
• Theravance Bio: Cramer needs to do more homework – “You deserve better than that. I will come back.” (41:45)
• Diageo: “Dividend at 5.6 can keep it here...Have to come up with something very special. I don't own stocks just for dividend, but I think it can stop right there because of the dividend.” (42:34)
• M&T Bank: “It’s still not that expensive...I would buy that stock tomorrow morning even though it looks like it's up to spike. There's nothing not to like about M&T Bank.” (43:55)

---

VII. The Tariff Question — Investing vs. Gambling

Timestamps: 45:19 – 48:20

• Cramer examines the potential Supreme Court decision on US-China tariffs:
  • Retailers like Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, Williams Sonoma, and the Gap stand to benefit if tariffs are struck down.
  • “If you think the Supreme Court will strike the tariffs down, you know what, I say go to the retailers. I think that every one of these stocks would go up if the supreme strike down the tariffs and if the president prevails, I bet that these retail stocks won’t get hammered all that badly.” (47:00)
  • “The better risk/reward is with the stocks, not the prediction markets, because the prediction markets are pure gambling and gambling is all or nothing.” (47:43)

---

Standout Quotes

“To me, it seems like a lazy Susan transaction of dot-com yore and that’s why I’m saying the bubble popped a while ago and now it’s deflating quickly. That’s good. We want companies doing rational things, not delusional things.”
— Jim Cramer, (07:29)

“The $500 billion valuation [for OpenAI] may be off the mark and people shouldn’t be valuing at that high. Certainly not the investors.”
— Jim Cramer, (05:57)

“We have a new champion and it’s Claude Anthropic. For the first time...they’ve actually surpassed ChatGPT/OpenAI in terms of...likelihood to recommend.”
— Rob Pace, 100x (33:12)

“T-Mobile has closed that gap such that they're good enough and they do far better on price, value, plan options. Even the in-store experience now is superior.”
— Rob Pace, 100x (37:04)

“If I were one of these companies putting money in [AI] at a $500 billion valuation, I would think again...You’re not seeing fortress [positions] in our data for sure.”
— Jim Cramer, (38:15)

---

Summary Table of Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp (approx) | Key Content | |-------------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Opening & AI Bubble/Lazy Susan Deals | 01:39 – 12:18 | Market warnings, vendor-financing in tech | | Lightning Round Q&A (first batch) | 12:18 – 14:32 | Roku, Take-Two, Robinhood, et al | | Medline IPO Segment | 14:32 – 21:00 | IPO details, valuation, investor guidance | | Buyback Monsters Segment | 22:21 – 32:50 | Top 10 S&P buyback-heavy stocks, rationale | | 100x Consumer Data Interview | 32:50 – 38:57 | Chatbots, streaming, telco trends | | Lightning Round Q&A (extended) | 39:04 – 45:02 | 10+ stocks, sector insights, trademark Cramer | | Tariffs & Retail Investing vs Gambling | 45:19 – 48:20 | Supreme Court, tariff impact, investing strategy |

---

Conclusion & Forward View

Cramer closes by reiterating caution around still-inflated AI valuations, especially for those dealing in "lazy Susan" deals—urging investors to wait for more discipline from large tech companies before diving in. On the upside, he sees opportunity in non-tech buyback monsters and undervalued retailers if geopolitical winds shift.

“As always, there’s more market somewhere. I promise I find it just for you.” (48:17)

---

Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• Understand key risks in the AI/tech sector right now, especially around circular “vendor financing” deals
• Get actionable ideas on where discipline is returning—and future buying opportunities
• Find a curated list of the best “buyback monster” stocks for EPS growth
• Catch up on fast takes for dozens of individual stocks in the Lightning Round
• See which consumer and tech trends are shifting, powered by fresh data (interview w/ 100x)

---

For more, visit: madmoney.cnbc.com

Transcript

[A]

On Fox 1 now you can stream.

[B]

Your favorite live sports so you can be there live for the biggest moments.

[A]

Touchdown and catch history in the making. Fox One we live for live streaming now.

[C]

Fidelity Active ETFs have the flexibility to shift and transform as markets do the same. So instead of just riding an index, they can seek to outperform it by adapting to market conditions and pursuing new opportunities as they emerge. And while you get the potential outperformance of an actively managed fund, you can still buy and sell it on your terms. Just like any other etf. Markets can change in real time. Make sure your ETF can too. Learn [e-mail] ActiveETFs before investing in any exchange traded fund, you should consider its investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus, an offering circular, or if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. While active ETFs offer the potential to outperform an index, these products may more significantly trail an index as compared with passive ETFs. ETFs are subject to market fluctuation and the risks of their underlying investments. ETFs are subject to management fees and other expenses. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC.

[A]

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Craig Markup. My friends, I'm just trying to save a little bit of money out here. My job is not just entertain, but to put it in context. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. When I was running the street.com the online news journal I started in 1995, I found out how hard business could be. Hardly a quarter went by where we could meet our quota for ad revenue, which is why we set up more stable subscription business to cushion the shortfalls. But then one day. One day I got this call from one of the most infamous companies in the dot com era. It was a bit of a summons when I sat down with this guy who was rich as Croesus. He said he wanted to do all sorts of things with me. An Investment advise, the works.comnirvana. I sense pure greatness. Lucre. Just the imprimatur alone would be a home run. I could see the headlines. But then I heard the other side of the deal. In exchange for the investment, I I take the money and buy a requisite amount of goods from his company. Basically, I was being asked to make his quarter seem pretty circular and pretty fishy, but both end up looking great. I told him I wanted to speak to my lawyer first and you know what? My lawyer shot it down immediately. He said, you can't invest in a company that gets your money back in your own wares. That's what's called a lazy Susan deal. And these can be fraught from an investor and a legal point of view. My lawyer told me never to speak to that person again. Never. Not long after, this man's company got crushed as part of the dot com collapse. Thank heavens. Thank heavens I didn't deal with them. So in a day where we keep hearing that there's a bubble brewing in artificial intelligence world, I come back and tell you that the bubble's been bursting for weeks now, and we're now getting a lot of the signals that we saw back in the dreaded year 2000. Believe me, I was in the scrum then. It has a major impact today with The Dow slipping turn 28 points, S&P tumbling 1.16, the Nasdaq plunging 1.81%, all because of the stock. These days, we're constantly hearing about what I call these lazy Susan deals, except they're being celebrated as good news for both parties. Today, for example, we learned that OpenAI some talks to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon, some of which would be spent on Amazon's AI chips. We heard applause for this all day. Basically, Amazon's giving Open air at least $10 billion, even as OpenAI has a very stretched balance sheet with huge obligations that dramatically exceed its ability to bring in cash. In return, OpenAI will spend that money on Amazon's chips instead of maybe using Nvidia's. Doesn't that raise some eyebrows? Wouldn't it be better, more natural, say, for Open Air to just pay for the chips itself? Or are we breaking out the lazy Susan table again like in 2000? Oh, I sure hope not. Amazon's a serious company. I don't know why it would pay Open Air to use its own chips. I found the whole thing quizzical, very similar to the deal that I turned down from that giant.com company at the end of the Internet bubble. I know that Amazon Web Services and OpenAI had an existing partnership from early November where OpenAI committed $38 billion for a multi year deal to run its workloads in AWS. Does Amazon's $10 billion payment to OpenAI help OpenAI pay for that agreement too? Now, it's entirely possible that people want to be involved with Sam Altman's Open Air so badly that they're willing to invest in that company to get the money. Right back. But I'm growing ever more concerned that these kinds of deals and as you shall see later on the show, I'm starting to think that OpenAI is not that special. With no moat around Chachi P and the deals are bad. It's getting a real run for its Money now. Chat CBT that means the most valued $500 billion valuation may be off the mark and people shouldn't be valuing at that high. Certainly not the investors. I'm not saying that things are falling apart in this part of the financial world, but I am saying that as the bubble bursts and it is bursting, we're going to see discipline at work because most companies have survival instincts. This morning the Financial Times broke this terrific story that said Blue Al Capital is refusing to back a $10 billion deal for a planned Oracle data center in Michigan. Not that long ago I interviewed a blue executive who talked about the disciplined way it approaches investments. I believe the discipline is why Blue Hour fused to do the deal. I salute them. This story comes right as Wall Street Journal is questioning Oracle for relying on a squishy number a $300 billion five year agreement with again open AI. Oracle didn't formally announce the contract, but it put it in what's known as the remaining performance obligation line, which for me, which for many means is basically a done deal. Some of us regard that as almost cash in the bank. Boy, we look silly. Or at the time of the announcement, the market assumed that the contract was worth its weight in gold. So oracle stock jumped 36% in a single day back in September. They've been update they've been other contracts in the remaining the RPO remaining forms obligation line now stands at 5 and 23 billion. But Oracle stock has gotten crushed as we found out more about that open air relationship and how fraught it is becoming these days. Investors are feeling pretty darn dubious about it, which is why Oracle stock got shelled again, falling more than 5% 178 and change. That's down from $345 at its all time high just a few months ago. The stock has now wiped out most of the value it gained when Oracle decided to become king of the data center. Builders will give up the rest. Yes, if it doesn't stop the spending and gets discipline Oracle and open air killing the data center cohort for certain. So what does mean for you? Remember last night I said that we have a Godfather situation going? There are five families. Metta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and then the fifth which is Oracle OpenAI fourth of the four of these companies are spending fortunes, but it's of their own cash. And it's in part to stop OpenAI which behaves like it has unlimited capital, but it doesn't open. Reckless spending can't be maintained without the help of others, which is why it keeps doing deals like the one we just learned about with Amazon. Some call these kinds of deals circular transactions. Other call them vendor financing. To me it seems like a lazy Susan transaction of.com your and that's why I'm saying the bubble popped a while ago and now it's deflating quickly. That's good. We want companies doing rational things, not delusional things. We want discipline. With Blue out pulling out from an Oracle data center after Blue, our stock was clocked over balance sheet concerns Discipline is coming. We aren't there yet. Press reports indicate that there are other sources of financing and Blue House not needed. I wonder how much open air is really worth if all the powers that be, including Oracle, exercise discipline as the bond market seems to have lost its appetite for Oracle's debt and surveys show that Chat CBD is barely ahead, in some cases falling behind what is starting to look like a very commoditized business. Let's not get caught in the weeds though. The whole AI industry seems to be concerned that OpenAI may not be worth 500 billion even though it has 1.4 trillion spending commitments, which is why I think it keeps doing what looks to me like lazy Susan deals. Now Oracle stock has collapsed because they're doing so much business with OpenAI and that pain has spread to the entire data center complex. I think that's probably wrong. And discipline will reign in the out of control capital expenditure budgets from all the hyperscalers. They'll slow down, be more prudent and not trash their own balance sheets. When discipline arrives, it'll be a huge win for the industry. You will then be able to buy in video and Broadcom again. It's just that the losses have to stop first. You need to see Oracle blink first. That's the Sunny Corleone toll Blue situation writ large. Bulls have to hope that Micron's strong enough. The numbers tonight can help. I don't know until we know for sure. The bottom line is these stocks are will keep getting hit sooner or later. I think we'll get a Godfather style truce on spending and then everyone can benefit. But it's simply not safe to bet on these stocks yet until someone says no to these kinds of circular deals and calls them for what they really are lazy Susan deals that my lawyer told me, don't you dare even think about doing, let alone actually taking the money and giving it back discreetly in goods and services to pump up the quarter and the valuation. Daniel, Massachusetts. Daniel. Hi, Jim. Good evening. Thank you very much for taking my call. I appreciate. My pleasure. Thank you. Daniel, Little fired up here. What's going on? First of all, I want to wish you and your family a merry Christmas. You're a great guy. Thank you. Thank you, buddy. I appreciate that. What's going on? How can I help you? Listen, I'm calling about the streaming giant Roku. What do you think about Roku? I like it. I'll tell you, it's got a lot of lady, a lot of positive chatter about the numbers. It's just been going up, up and up. And I think it makes sense because that's where the advertisers want to be. Pressley in Florida. Pressley. Hey, Jim, I'm Presley, like Elvis from Jacksonville, Florida. I have a quick question about take two interactive. Sure. GTA 6 delayed to fall 20, 26 or later. What changes are, as you've taught us, baked into the price? And is a successful GTA release going to bolster the share price enough to be worth absolutely absolute? It's the greatest entertainment franchise of all time. I think you can buy some here and buy some little lower Strauss. Zellnick will deliver for you. He will. Don in Florida. Don, booyah. Jim, how are you? I am good, Don. How about you? I'm great. Jim. I am a club member and I watch your show every night. I wouldn't miss it. Thank you. Thank you very much. Let's go to work. Here's my question. Here's my question. Robinhood, it's off, you know, over 20% from its highs right now. Do you think is it a buy, sell or hold? Okay, this stock just went up. Like just, I mean, straight up. And now when they start coming down, when they've been straight up, they don't stop as fast as you'd like to see. That's why what we're going to do is let Robinhood come down below that last dip, which took it down to 103. Maybe you go to, say 95 and then pull the trigger. If not, then just say you missed it. All right. Until someone finally calls out the deals we're seeing with OpenAI as lazy Susan deals. Well, I just think it isn't safe to invest in many of these AI stocks. But it's going to happen. Discipline is coming all my money. Tonight, Medline came public today. The biggest IPO the year and with the stock soaring out of the gate, is the valuation too rich for you to get a piece of the deal? Then the most forward, straightforward way to find earnings per share growth is to turn to the buyback monsters. I'll reveal the names that made my list and how are consumers really feeling about the AI chat bots? Is there a moat around ChatGPT? I'm talking 100x to hear what the research is signaling and it is always methodical and empirical. So stay with Kramer. Foreign.

[B]

Don'T miss a second of Mad Money. Follow imKramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer. Hashtag MADmentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com Fox News is now streaming live on Fox One. The voices you trust, the stories you.

[A]

Won'T find anywhere else. This is the story breaking right now.

[B]

FOX one. We live for lies.

[C]

Try it free for seven days. Offers are subject to change. Go to Fox one for complete terms and conditions. Right now, there's a talented person out there who could take your company to the next level. Do you want to hope they see your job posts before your competitors or do you want to match with them with Indeed sponsored jobs? Here's how it works. Sponsor Jobs Boost your post for quality candidates so you can reach the exact people you want faster. And get this According to Indeed data, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 90% more likely to report a hire than non sponsored jobs. Plus, with Indeed sponsored jobs, there are no monthly subscriptions or long term contracts. Join the 1.6 million companies that sponsor their jobs with Indeed. Listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves@ Indeed.com MadMoney just go to Indeed.com MadMoney right now. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring do it the right way with Indeed.

[B]

Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours. Before your sleeper turns in a season no one saw coming. Before stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you've flipped the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches. And as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy's going to surpass reality. It's on. Products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.

[A]

Earlier today we witnessed the largest IPO in over four years when Medline came public with a bang. This is the biggest provider of medical surgical products and supply chain solutions for the health care industry. It came public with a gigantic $6.26 billion offering. But it feels like a deal that really kind of snuck up on us because this isn't exactly a household name. Medline's revenue is split pretty evenly between selling its own Medline brand medical surgical products and handling supply chain solutions for the health care industry. But the vast bulk of their earnings comes from product sales. Still, the supply chain business lets them see what hospital needs and also helps them move their merchandise. When CEO Jim Boyle came on squawk box this morning, he described Medline as trying to be the Costco of health care. They have a membership model, the supply chain business that lets them give health care providers the best prices. Meanwhile, the Medline brand products they're kind of like Costco's in house. Kirkland Signature brand carry much higher margins than the rest of the merchandise is premium private label. Now let's talk over the numbers. Over the past few years, Medlines put up solid revenue growth. 8.3% in 2023, 9.8% in 2024 and 10.3% through the first nine months of 2025. High single digit growth seems to be accelerating. I love our which is accelerating revenue growth. Medline is also solidly profitable. Their Medline brand segment has seen its EBITDA margins rise from 20.4% in 2022 to 25.4% in the first nine months of this year. Although that's down slightly from where they were in 2024. The spike in business carries much lower margins. Just a 5.5% EBITDA margin still turns a profit. How about the balance sheet? Okay. Four years ago a bunch of private equity firms took a majority stake in Medline. The deal gave the company cash to do an acquisition. 2021 also make a $2.3 billion investment in its own infrastructure. But private equity backed IPOs tend to have a sub optimal balance sheet because their owners packed them to the debt with debt to the gills with debt. Medline's balance sheet isn't terrible and it certainly helps. They just raised more than $6 billion from the IPO. Four billion of that going toward paying down debt. If that Magnus has a lot of leverage ratio roughly 3.25% 2.25 which by the way they plan to get down to three in shorter. I can handle three. It's pretty manageable. Not ideal, but good enough. There's another private equity problem here and it comes down to control. And this one's confusing. Simply put, the public shareholders won't have any after this offering. The public, the people who bought Medline shares for the IPO today will have a low teens percentage of the voting power. With existing pre IPO shareholders controlling more than 80% of the voting power. The combination of three private equity firms to sovereign wealth funds and the founding Mills family. Those are the ones who control 2/3 of the vote. Is it an issue for you? Frankly, these days it's pretty common to see companies coming public with different classes of stock or some other ownership structure that in effect makes it so the common shareholders, like you and like me, don't have any control. And if that's a deal breaker for you, you've missed out on many great stocks over the past couple of decades. However, if the regular shareholders can't have control, you know what? I actually prefer that to be because of the company's founder who created the business and as a vision for the future maintains control. It doesn't bother me one bit that Mark Zuckerberg rules better platforms with an iron fist. Zuckerberg knows what he's doing and his business is his baby. But this cadre of private equity firms who control Medline, sooner or later they're going to want to ring the register and that's why they did the ipo. They're starting the process of cashing out. As they sell it can put real pressure on the stock. Probably won't be an issue anytime soon, but longer term, there's a ceiling on this one until the private equity guys have fully liquidated their positions. So is Medline worth buying? After today's IPO and the stock subsequent rally, this was a very successful deal with the stock up more than 41% today. Initially, Medline was only looking to sell 179 million shares for 26 to $30. But demand was so high that they sold over 216 million shares at $29 today. Medline opened for trading at $35, up over 20% from the offer price. And then it added a few more bucks after that. At the current price, Medline market capitalization of roughly $54 billion, making this a nice win for the P E firms. When they invested Medline in 2021, the company is valued at just $34 billion. But I do think that the stock looks a little richer and I'm reluctant to recommend it. After the strong opening, we know from the IPO prospectus that Medline earned $0.68 per share through the first three quarters of the year and analyze that and you get to $0.91 of earnings per share. Given the current share price, the stocks trade something like 45 times. My back of the envelope earnings estimates. That's a lot of a company with low double digit revenue growth. I'm uncomfortable that another way to approach Medline's valuation is with an enterprise multiple. Let's do that. That's the market cap plus the net debt divided by the EBITDA. Medline's enterprise value is about 70 billion and it's annualizing its EBITDA from the first nine months of 2025. We get 3.55 billion for the full year. That's meaning the enterprise multiple is something like 20. The tough thing here is that we don't have a lot of great comparisons. For Medline, which is part medical supplies company, part distributor. The company's prime vendor model means that much of its revenue is recurring in nature. We like recurring revenue, even if it's not actually recurring revenue, like say a software company would have. But whether you're talking about pure medical supplies in companies like Owens and Minorities, Ooh, or so Ventum, or medical device companies like Beckton, Dickinson or Baxter, or even drug distributors like Cardinal Health, yes, McKesson, Sincur, they're all cheaper than Medline. All the generally much cheaper. That's not good. Looking at the rest of the cohort, I'd be willing to give Medline an enterprise multiple of about 15. That translates to $29. That's exactly the stock came public. Might be worth more than that, but I don't want to chase it after this huge first day move that's been a sucker's play. So here's the bottom line. We had the largest IPO in over four years today, and it generally went pretty darn well. In fact, it went so well, the Medline looks a little too expensive for me. Even though I like the company, I really do, I wouldn't buy the stock up here. I say wait for pullback, maybe down to 20 or 30 before you pull the trigger. And if that doesn't happen, you know what you have to do. You just got to say you missed it. Their money's back at.

[B]

Coming up, looking for a steady opportunity. With the market in flux, Kramer's revealing his best buyback monsters to help you find potentially built in earnings.

[A]

Next. Hi there, it's Andy Richter and I'm here to tell you about my Podcast the three Questions with Andy Richter each week I invite friends, comedians, actors and musicians to discuss these three questions. Where do you come from, where are you going, and what have you learned? New episodes are out every Tuesday with guests like Julie Bowe and Ted Danson, Tig Notaro, Will Arnett, Phoebe Bridgers and more. You can also tune in for my weekly Andy Richter Call in Show episodes where me and a special guest invite callers to weigh in on topics like dating, disasters, bad teachers, and lots more. Listen to the three Questions with Andy Richter wherever you get your podcasts.

[B]

CIDP can make your daily routine feel not so routine. The good news? With a self injection for chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, you have the option to treat at home.

[A]

Discover [e-mail] and talk to your doctor.

[B]

That's cidpselfinjection.com brought to you by Argenics.

[A]

Hey Riley herbst here with 2311 racing, waiting for the bus, staring at traffic crawl hard pass. I rev up Chumba Casino instead. Fast spins, blazing winds, all fun. No downloads needed. Why let the clock drag when you can let the reels spin? Next stop chumbacasino.com let's chumba no purchase necessary. VGW Group Void where prohibited by law CTC's 21/ sponsored by Chumba Casino. With the data center trade flagging, we're seeing money rotate back into all sorts of non tech growth stocks. And if you want earnings per share growth, the most straightforward way to get it is by betting on companies with enormous buybacks. Even if the underlying business isn't growing, as long as they're repurchasing enough shares, they shrink the share count and therefore their earnings per share soar. Since the end of 2015, there are 51 companies, the SB 500 that have reduced their share count by more than 30%. That's amazing. Of course not all of them are worth owning, though a big buyback can save you if your business is falling apart. Sometimes buying back your stock is not a good investment. In fact, the top five repurchasers over the past decade have all underperformed the S and P. That's why I went through that list of 51 companies to pick out 10 that are worth recommending to you. Now. First up is one of my old favorites is Applied Materials is semiconductor capital equipment maker which has reduced its share count by 31% since the end of 2015. Now this stock had a strong year. It's up over 50% for 2025 because we have insatiable demand for all sorts of semiconductors, especially, you know, not the commodity ones, which means there's equally big demand for the machines that make semiconductors. But Applied Materials Amat is also a great long term performer. It is a 1,200% since the end of 2015 versus 229% for the S&P 500. Now, some of that's the strength of the core business and some of it's the voracious buyback. By the way, it is a terrific example of the kind of stock I suggest you buy in my new book how to Make Money in Any Market. This is the essence of what I'm trying to get across to you. Second, don't forget that Apple, the second largest company in the world, also happens to be a buyback monster, having shrunk its share up by 33.7% since the end the year of in 2015. The stocks up 933% of that same period. I always say own Apple, don't trade it. So tonight I just want to point out that this is a $4 trillion company that still managed to repurchase more than a third of its shares over the past decade. Third, here's a fun one. Ralph Lauren, one of my favorite apparel stocks in the environment. This environment. The company's retired 34.1% of the share since the end of 2015, though its stock is basically even with the SB 500 over the same period. That's because Ralph Lauren's true outperformance only started in the past few years, especially this year with RL up nearly 60%. While many other consumer names are in tatters now. The company really came into its form under CEO Patrice Levy, whom I think the world of. I am a huge fan. I bet that they draw a lot of attention at the Winter Olympics in a couple of months, where Team USA will be rocking without Ralph Lauren gear, it is still a buy. Fourth is a bank that I've come to like very much over the past couple years. That's been why the old bank of New York Mellon, Ben why shrunk its share count by 36.2% since the end of 2015, even as the stock wasn't a real outperformer until more recently under CEO Robin Vince, we think the world of him, a Goldman Sachs alum who's been leading BMI for the past three years or so. The nation's oldest bank has found new life. They focus on selling their entire suite of financial services to investors rather than marketing this stuff as one off products. And they've also leaned heavily into technology, including AI, maybe the most of all the banks. I follow. It's clearly working as the stocks nearly tripled in a little more than two years. Fifth buyback monster, it's another household name is Domino's Pizza shrunk its share count by 38.2% since the end of 2015. That's a lot. Domino's is no longer the massive outperformer that it was from 2010 through 2021. The stock's been pretty choppy for the past five years or so. But you know what? I think Domino's can win in this current moment because it offers great value at a time that's what consumers care most about. We had CEO Russell Weiner on the show in October and after he delivered a strong set of numbers, I thought he sounded very confident. The future. I believe him. I think it's a buy now. The next five buyback monsters are more elite. They've retired more than 40% of their shares in the last decade. For starters, there's General Motors. Don't get this. General Motors just shrunk its share cap by 40.1% since 2015. This one's interesting because GM simply retiring the new shares it issued during the financial crisis and its aftermath. Still, when you look at the rest of the auto industry, it's clear CEO Mary Barra has been doing a remarkable job. She is so good. After tariff concerns kept a little GM for much of the first half of the year, the stocks exploded higher in recent months. Sell up over 50% year to date, trading at its highest level since the company returned to public markets in 2010. The best part, even after this move, GM still sells for just under seven times next year's estimates. I bet it can keep climbing, especially if we get more rate cuts from the Fed. Now you know, I expect that seventh one that just reported J Bill, the contract manufacturer known formerly known as Chapel Circuit, which has shrunk its share cut by 43.6% since the end of 2015. J Bill's transformed itself from an outsourced kind of low multiple manufacturer into a company that helps its clients actually design their products and figure out where to make them. Very important now that there are tariffs all over the place. Chabel just report a fantastic set of numbers this morning. But while the stock initially jumped nearly 10% in response, it eventually gave up most of those gains. But that's because of a full blown sector sell off. Holy cow. They were shooting Everything today. Now you're practically getting this quarter for free. I think some investors wanted it just to ring the register given that the Stock is up 50%. 8th. Hey, here's one that nobody thinks about that I think they should. It's called Marathon Petroleum. Marathon Pete. It operates the nation's largest oil refining system as well as its largest midstream and retail business businesses. Marathon Pete has reduced its share count by an astounding 43.6%. Generates a lot of cash since the end of 2015. At a time when I'm still pretty bearish on most of the energy sector and I'm doubling down soon on that. I like Marathon. The refiners don't need higher energy prices to do well. Sometimes they benefit from lower energy prices, which is one reason the stock's up 25% year to date. Plus any time there's a pullback, you can bet you pretty confident companies in there buying with it. Knife. There's HCA Health care. I've said I'd like this many times. It operates a network of 190 hospitals along with roughly 2400ambulatory care sites. And that's not even counting the British business. HCA shrunk its share count by 44% since the end of 2015. I pushed the stock hard in recent years and it just keeps climbing higher. Hit new all time highs last month, but since then it's pulled back nearly 50 bucks on really no particular reason. I think it is a terrific one to buy. Finally, there's one that I've recommended to you endlessly and that is AutoZone, the auto parts retailer which has shrunk its share count by 44.9%. Can you believe that? Since the end of 2015. 44.9%. If you go back to the summer of 1998, AutoZone shrunk its share count by roughly 89%. That's why the stock's been a massive long term outperformer. I always recommend. At the same time, I like the fundamentals here. Rates are still high. Getting financing for new cars, expensive. So people need new parts to make their old cars last longer. Plus, AutoZone is pulled back 22% from its highs. You know I'd be a buyer. I bet the company is too. Here's the bottom line. When you've got a company with strong fundamentals, a long history of aggressively buying back its own stock, you just might have a winner. Especially now that the market's fallen out of love, at least momentarily, with the tech stocks. I want to go to Logan in New Jersey. Logan. Booyah, Jim. Booyah, Logan. What's going on? How's it going? I'm a first time caller, longtime listener and a club member. First time longtime club member. Fantastic. I had a question about Sofi stock. Is now a good time to buy, hold or sell given its recent Sofi stock is right now enjoying I could say a pullback and I don't want to buy it until I think we're further along in the pullback because now that a very, very high price earnings multiple. Why don't we wait to see if you can't get the stock at 20 you can buy a little 23 say but I don't want you to pay at these prices. Let's go to Leslie in California. Leslie, Jim, quick question. What are you going to get the little lady for Christmas here? I just got her some. She doesn't watch. I got her some earrings and I got her a pocketbook. Buy, sell or hold? Which one? Dover Corp. Buy, sell, hold. You know I like Dover. It's a short cycle name is recommended by a bunch of people. The stock is finally getting the do that it's worth. I think that Tobin's doing a good job and I know he can do a lot of things. Got a great balance sheet, stocks on a real role. I want to buy Dov a club name and thank you for the. Yeah, I got it. I did some work. I got her this stuff. To find winners in this market you want to find companies with strong fundamentals and I think it really helps to have a history of buying back your own stock. Now as much for me, from the speeding wars to the wireless carriers hearing where the consumer spending their money time and attention from research from hundred x and you're not going to believe what I found out. It is going to change your view or make you agree more at the top of the show. Then you can go on Cal State place a bet on the Supreme Court that it's going to strike down Trump tariffs or you can actually invest in companies that will be impacted by the outcome. I'll reveal the stocks that could win if the tariffs are struck down and of course oil coast rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round. So stay with Kramer. You are in for a treat with us. At any given time there are major showdowns happening across a host of different industries and naturally we don't know who's winning. Right. Which brings me to 100x as a privately held alternative research firm that surveys thousands of consumers. Ask them not how they feel, but what they actually plan to buy. Believe it or not, this is an unusual methodology and it's proven to be very useful at predicting the future. We know this. I also like that Hundred X rewards the consumers of surveys by donating to a charity they're choice choosing. So we're starting to check in regular 100x they've been so good, we brought them back to discuss a trio of battle royals in three distinct end markets, generally video streaming and the wireless industry. So taking closer with Rob Pace. He's the founder and CEO of 100X to learn more. Mr. Pace, welcome back to Bad Money.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

All right, Rob, I got to tell you, I am like jumping out of my chair because I have been going over and over again. I've been questioning exactly the sites which people like and questioning whether Chachi beat as, let's say, hot as it used to be and therefore worth the $500 billion. I look at your data and I'm not sure that things aren't changing right now.

[B]

Yeah, you're right. We have a new champion and it's Claude Anthropic. And for the first time in our data gym, they've actually surpassed chat GPT OpenAI in terms of current users saying, am I going to use it more? And likelihood to recommend to their business to business.

[A]

Rob, how does it work?

[B]

Well, it's interesting if you look at it, there's a number of things they do better. So Chat GPT still has the best experience.

[A]

Right.

[B]

But really the. What we're seeing is people care about the results, the references. Can I rely on it? That's true of business, but it's also true about the, the individual as well. And so that's why we are seeing them ascend in our data.

[A]

But I also see that since Gemini 3 came out mid November, that too is making a big move.

[B]

Yeah, they're moving up the ranks so they, they would get our most improved award. And you're right, since November 18th when they came out with 3.0, they really fixed both the experience as well as the quality. And they've closed the gap again with Open Air. Now, just real quick, two things. They still are all doing well. In other words, current users want to. But we do, we do see a kind of a dethroning of where we were.

[A]

But that's, there's a lot of money being invested right now in the idea that chat CBT's got this gigantic lead. I don't see the that anymore.

[B]

Yeah, and you can probably understand then why the alarm bell's there, the red.

[A]

Coat, the code red. Yeah. I think if there's something it's like that's hotter than a code red, maybe to look at that. Now I also want to talk about. I thought this was very interesting that when I, when I looked at this Google Gemini, significant ground versus chat cbt, you've got this area which shows you that this thing really is very new. So you just got this data.

[B]

Yeah, we did. And they've now closed the gap to down where it's really very comparable. And that was not the case even a few months ago. And they're just getting started with 3.0.

[A]

Wow. Okay, you see that, that compression, it's, it is incredible. Now let's talk about the next battleground. I have been questioning why Netflix felt that they needed to have Warner Brothers until I saw a chart that you have about what YouTube is doing. Again, a Google product.

[B]

Yeah. So again, this is a little out of the box, but you're right in terms of Netflix, they are number one or number two and everything we track.

[A]

Right.

[B]

So it does beg the question why now? If you think more broadly though, where we see real strength is in YouTube and we see it with the younger consumer, we see it with the more diverse consumer. Consumer in terms of their future, future time they're going to spend. And I think the key thing, Jim, is to think about in investing. I think you need to think about share of time or share.

[A]

Well, that's what Netflix tells us to.

[B]

Share of stomach, etc. So don't sleep on YouTube even though it's viewed as short form versus long form. That may be the future battleground.

[A]

Well, what's clear to me, I had been saying to David Faber, I don't know why the heck Netflix has to do it. It. I have completely flipped based on your data. I think they have to do it.

[B]

Yeah, it does. Might argue that it's more defensive than offensive.

[A]

I didn't see Paramount doing all that well.

[B]

Yeah, I mean you can understand the industrial logic or the business reason for why they would want to combine.

[C]

Right.

[B]

Scale, etc. So that the, the desire makes sense. But they're not, they're not as competitive for sure in our data.

[A]

No, not at all. That was really eye opening. And then the final one, we know that there are billions of dollars up for grab when it comes to telco and I had always felt that that Verizon was doing incredibly well and offered a pretty good deal. I am changing my view based on what you've come up with here.

[B]

Yeah. T Mobile, if you, if you synthesize everything. So to be fair to Verizon, they do have the best network coverage area overall.

[A]

All right.

[B]

But T Mobile has closed that gap such that they're good enough and they do far better on price, value plan options. Even the in store experience now is superior.

[A]

So that is very new. People always said the Verizon stores are fantastic. So what this told me, Rob, is that the American let's see the consumers not doing that lower fueling low, then they're going to switch. Maybe. Is there a lot of switching going on?

[B]

Yeah, it's value. I mean there's, you've been on this, but there's one theme we're seeing. Our data is value.

[A]

Now in terms of all the things that we see. I just want to go back to the chat CBT for a second. I thought these things would be glacial, that it would take a long time to unseat someone. It turns out to be whether we also look at that the wireless. But it turns out it can happen like lighting. Which means to me, Rob, that those Facebook you worked at Goldman, those franchises, you got to be careful about the valuation. When you're going to do more than 500 billion for, for Chachi Beat. I think that means you better believe that they're, that they're pulling away, not that they're dropping. Yeah.

[B]

You're not seeing fortress in our data for sure.

[A]

Well, I, I don't know if I were one of these companies is putting money in this thing at a $500 billion valuation, I would think again, I don't think you disagree with me.

[B]

You know what we are seeing though is across all these platforms, they really are helping with productivity.

[A]

Right.

[B]

So there's there there. It's just who's going to win.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Is more.

[A]

Well in a scrum. I don't want to pay that much more for one than other scrum. I like when it's up here and the rest are there. I don't see that anymore from your data and I know your data would have showed me that at one time. Rob Pace. These changed my mind about things, Rob. They literally changed my mind. And they changed your mind too. That's Rob pace, founder and CEO of 100X. That money's back after the brand.

[B]

Coming up, Kramer takes your calls. And the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round.

[A]

Next. Time, it's time for the white round. Chris Rapper. This is where Raffles. I'm standing in the stock Saturday. Bye bye. Bye. Soul Soldiers have been in the course ahead of time. I stayed versus the graphics with how you're playing it sound. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready Ski daddy Time the lineup pairs of mine start with Felix. Arizona. Felix. Hey Tim, thanks for taking my call. I just want to get your thoughts on Pfizer. Okay. Pfizer, really good yield. Not a lot of momentum. Didn't like the update yesterday. I'm going to say just weak hold. Let's go to Jim and Tech, Texas. Jim. Hey Jim. This is Jim in Texas. So I'm an investment club member from the start and a second time caller. All right. My question is about a stock that's not retail but more of a supplier to retail. Okay. And they deal with both livestock and pets. Okay. So they're a pharmaceutical business called Elanco. They are doing everything right. I am so impressed with the way they've turned that company around. I'm glad you brought it out. That was a real good idea. Let's go to Tina in Florida. Tina. Hey Jim, thanks to you and your team and happy holidays. Oh, same to you. Thank you.

[C]

Thank you, thank you.

[A]

Thanks for everything you do for us home gamers. I was wondering if you. If would Rocket Lab be a stock that you would include in the end of the year of magical Think? I think Rocket Lab is better than that. I don't think it's a magical thinking. So I think it's a very good spec ahead of another big offering in the rocket world next year. I think you can own it as your spec play as I say in how to make money any market. Let's go to Brandon, Arizona. Brandon. Booyah, Jim. Merry Christmas and happy New Year. Oh, same to you. What do you think about lac lithium? No, there's nothing there for you. You're just gonna have to skip it. That's. That's a yesteryear stock. It's just no, it's a no go. Greg in Minnesota. Greg. Yeah, hi, Jim. Greg, how are you bud? All right, how you doing? Yeah, good. The six time caller. Thank you very much.

[B]

I need to buy, sell.

[A]

Hold on. This scoreboard company that has a new CEO, a new CFO and a new 30 handle price target. It's institutionally held by Blackrock and others. Deathtronic. You know, it's just. Okay, I've never been excited about that scoreboard business advertising. But it's just not compelling enough to put your money into. Let's go to Jerry in Arizona. Jerry. Mr. Kramer, good afternoon. The stock that I'm asking about has a over 11% short position on it. Analysts only have buy strong buys and no sales. So is my stock Theravance Bio a buy seller hold? I gotta do more. I've not looked at Theravance in a couple of years. You deserve better than that. I will come back. Let's go to Tim in Pennsylvania. Tim. Hi, Jim. Hey, fellow Eagles fan and club member. All right, thank you. Yep. Hey, I know you're not a big fan of beer and liquor companies due to the. Due to Lilly's GLP1 drug. Yes. But this stock is more of a new CEO turnaround story that I know you like. Like Wells Fargo, Nike, Starbucks. So they call the new CEO at Diageo drastic. Dave Lewis, who has successfully. Okay, well, let me give you my. I think the. That the dividend at 5.6 can keep it here. They have to come up with something very special because I see a lot of their lines of business not doing well. Okay, I'm going to throw in Constellation and Brown Forman. Downgrade it downgrade again too. I don't own stocks just for dividend, but I think it can stop right there because of the dividend. Let's go to Bill in New Mexico. Bill. Hey, Jimmy, it's Billy in Santa Fe. I had a feeling. What's happening. My stock is Photonics. Something's happening with that stock. The thing is just like skyrocketed. I have to figure out what that. You know, like. Jesus, two different calls in one lighting round. But look, if I don't know it, I'm gonna just say I don't know it. I can't make it up. Let's go to Miles in Florida. Miles, Jim, how are you? And shout out thank you for your book. And Merry Christmas. Thank you and your team. Thank you. The team is fabulous. And thank you for the kind words about my book. How can I help? MTV Short Term Bank. It's still not that expensive. Actually, it's surprisingly inexpensive. I would buy that stock tomorrow morning even though it looks like it's up to Spike. It's at 12 times earnings. There's nothing not to like about M and T Bank. It's good. Let's go to Chris in Colorado. Chris. Howdy, Jim. How. What's going on? Long time. Listen, longtime listener, member of the club and thank you. I asked Santa for the book. Oh, man, I hope Santa doesn't let you. Death. Let him die. I wish you'd take down another 300,000 with. When he's. When he's in there. What's going on? Well, Jim, this company was originally a graduate of the year of magical investing, but now all of a sudden, revenues are up 600% this year. They're sitting on 800 million cash in the bank. And this $3 billion market cap expects to be cash flow positive next year. Jim, the stocks own dos. Nothing is just look, I view that as a cats and dog thing. To be honest. I cannot go, wow, that one is a really complicated stock. And I don't know why I think it necessarily is going to start taking off from here. I'm going to have to take a pass. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[B]

The Lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

[A]

Owning stocks, picking stocks, figuring out the odds of something good happening. All that is integral to the process of making money. Right now, the Supreme Court's delivering the issue of the President's tariffs. And if they strike down the tariffs for being unconstitutional, that would be a huge win for multiple retailers who import so much from China. But will the Supremes really rule that way? That's the dilemma for investors and gamblers alike. If you go on our partner Kalsha, you will see that the crowd is betting heavily against the tariffs surviving. If you wager $100 that tariffs stay intact, payoff is over $350. Wowza. But there's another way to look at this. It's called investing. Right now we have a host of stocks that might that have been punished mightily by tariffs. Let's talk about the ones that have been hit hard. First are the dollar stores. We all accept the cliche of the cash strapped consumer, right? A strapped consumer often goes to dollar stores. There's a perception these stores have a ton of Chinese exposure. So their sales and earnings have been hurt by the tariffs. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree are extremely well run companies. They spend time a of lot. Great deal of the conference calls talk about how they've mitigated much of the Chinese exposure. But they can't get rid of it all at night. There's still too much of it. And the tariffs don't just apply to China either. As Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos pointed out in his June conference call, quote, we have successfully reduced our China exposure to less than 70% of our direct imports and we estimate less than 40% of our indirect imports are sourced from China, end quote. Still, Basso says he's had to raise prices as a last resort. Dollar Tree mentions the tariffs as a cause of volatility, which to me means variable pricing. The company, like Dollar General, is doing its best to keep prices low, but the tariffs are still a factor. Five below A company has been on fire even though its merchandise has been heavily tariff would benefit enormously if the tariffs get struck down. How about two I really like right here? Williams Sonoma Gap. Their tariff hit is pretty variable and pretty covered. These are all moving targets, but these two companies are firing on all cylinders, Williams even guiding for a modest year over year increase in operating margins at the midpoint. Despite the tariffs, stock buyers will not check to see how much these companies might save with the tariffs going, they'll just buy Bye bye and Costco has joined a list of companies suing the Trump administration for refund. I don't know how much that would be and who would get it, but a victory against tariffs may break the company's stock from its continued and endless and terrible tailspin. So the question is, should you go cashier? Should you invest in these sure winners? If you think the Supreme Court will strike the tariffs down, you know what I say go to the retailers. I think that every one of these stocks would go up if the supreme strike down the tariffs and if the President prevails, I bet that these retail stocks won't get hammered all that badly. To me, the better risk reward is with the stocks, not the prediction markets, because the prediction markets are pure gambling and gambling is all or nothing. The truth is, I have no idea which way the Supreme Court will rule here, so it's better invest in stocks that won't get hit particularly hard even if this case goes against them. I'd like to say, as always, more market Summer. I promise I find it just for you, right here on Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.

[C]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer.

[B]

Before the trophy and bragging rights are rightfully yours before your sleeper turns. In a season no one saw coming. Before stats and projections turn into points on the board and your lineup falls perfectly into place, you flip the lid on a can of on nicotine pouches. And as you make your first pick, you know this is the season where fantasy's going to surpass reality. It's on. Products for tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. Warning. This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical.