Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer — December 18, 2025
Host: Jim Cramer | CNBC
Episode Overview
In this episode, Jim Cramer tackles the bursting “mini-bubble” in AI and technology stocks, highlighting problematic “lazy Susan deals” he sees recurring in the sector. Cramer dives deep into what investors should watch out for—especially regarding circular vendor-financing arrangements—and how the renewed market discipline will create future opportunities. He also gives his trademark rapid-fire take on a slew of individual stocks in the Lightning Round, reviews the biggest IPO of the year (Medline), unveils his top "buyback monsters," and, with guest Rob Pace from 100x, unpacks fresh consumer data across AI chatbots, streaming services, and telecoms.
Main Themes and Key Insights
I. The State of the AI Bubble & “Lazy Susan” Deals
Timestamps: 01:39 – 12:18
The Warning Signs of a Market Correction
- Cramer begins by recounting a personal experience from the dot-com era, describing a deal offer that would have been lucrative—but ultimately, his lawyer called it a "lazy Susan deal" and told him to walk away.
- He draws a parallel to the present, warning that similar vendor-financing arrangements—now celebrated as “partnerships”—are cropping up between giant tech players, particularly in AI:
- Example: “Today we learned OpenAI’s in talks to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon, some of which would be spent on Amazon’s AI chips...Amazon’s giving OpenAI at least $10 billion, even as OpenAI has a very stretched balance sheet...In return, OpenAI will spend that money on Amazon’s chips instead of maybe using Nvidia's. Doesn’t that raise some eyebrows?” (03:30)
- Cramer argues these are modern versions of the deals that infamously sank companies in the dot-com bust: "To me it seems like a lazy Susan transaction of dot-com yore and that's why I’m saying the bubble popped a while ago and now it's deflating quickly. That's good. We want companies doing rational things, not delusional things...” (07:29)
Valuations & Market Impact
- AI valuations—especially OpenAI's—are called into question: “...I’m starting to think OpenAI is not that special. With no moat around ChatGPT and the deals are bad. It’s getting a real run for its money now. ChatGPT, that means the $500 billion valuation may be off the mark...” (05:57)
- Oracle's plummeting stock illustrates the point: after reporting a $300 billion five-year agreement with OpenAI, the details appear squishy, and the stock drops as investors grow wary.
The “Five Families” of Big Tech Spending
- Cramer analogizes the current situation to the “Godfather:”
- “There are five families: Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and then the fifth, which is Oracle/OpenAI. Four of these companies are spending fortunes, but it's of their own cash. And it's in part to stop OpenAI which behaves like it has unlimited capital, but it doesn’t.” (09:21)
- He predicts discipline will return as bond markets lose appetite, financing dries up, and companies like Blue Owl Capital walk away from expensive deals.
Investor Guidance
- For now, Cramer urges caution: "It's simply not safe to bet on these stocks yet until someone says no to these kinds of circular deals and calls them for what they really are—lazy Susan deals..." (11:31)
II. Lightning Round – Stock Commentary
Timestamps: 12:18 – 14:32; 39:04 – 45:02
Cramer answers rapid-fire questions on listener stock picks, offering succinct buy/sell/hold advice:
- Roku: “It’s just been going up, up and up. That’s where the advertisers want to be.” (13:09)
- Take-Two Interactive: “Greatest entertainment franchise of all time [GTA]. I think you can buy some here and buy some a little lower.” (13:30)
- Robinhood: “Let Robinhood come down below that last dip...maybe go to 95 and then pull the trigger. If not, just say you missed it.” (13:50)
- (See “Lightning Round Highlights” below for more names and memorables)
III. Medline IPO Analysis
Timestamps: 14:32 – 21:00
The Deal’s Highlights
- Medline (medical supply/healthcare logistics) launches the largest IPO in four years, surging 41% on debut.
- Structure: “The public...will have a low teens percentage of the voting power. With existing pre-IPO shareholders controlling more than 80% of the voting power...the combo of three private equity firms, two sovereign wealth funds, and the founding Mills family.” (16:38)
Cramer’s Concerns
- Valuation is rich: “Stock’s trading something like 45 times my back-of-the-envelope earnings estimates. That’s a lot for a company with low double digit revenue growth. I’m uncomfortable.” (19:02)
- Lack of shareholder control and the looming risk of private equity cashing out puts “a ceiling on this one”.
Takeaway
- “I like the company, I really do, I wouldn’t buy the stock up here. I say wait for pullback...If that doesn’t happen...you just gotta say you missed it.” (20:35)
IV. “Buyback Monsters” — EPS Growth via Share Repurchase
Timestamps: 22:21 – 32:50
Cramer highlights 10 S&P 500 companies that have meaningfully reduced their share count—boosting earnings per share—over the past decade:
Top Performers and Notables
- Applied Materials: “Reduced its share count by 31%...stock up 1,200% since the end of 2015...terrific example of the kind of stock I suggest you buy...” (22:44)
- Apple: “A $4 trillion company that still managed to repurchase more than a third of its shares over the past decade.” (23:18)
- Ralph Lauren, Bank of New York Mellon (BNYM), Domino’s Pizza: Each have shrunk share count, but performance varies—Cramer likes their current positioning, especially Domino’s under CEO Russell Weiner.
- General Motors: “Simply retiring the new shares it issued during the financial crisis...stock’s exploded higher in recent months...still sells for under 7x next year’s estimates.” (24:50)
- AutoZone: “Shrunk its share count by roughly 89% since 1998—that's why the stock’s been a massive long-term outperformer. Always recommend.” (26:53)
Summary Guidance
- Buyback plus strong fundamentals can be a winning formula, “especially now that the market's fallen out of love...with the tech stocks.” (26:07)
V. Consumer Data: Chatbot Wars, Streaming, & Telco—w/ Rob Pace (100x)
Timestamps: 32:50 – 38:57
Segment Overview
Cramer and Rob Pace (CEO, 100x) analyze recent consumer survey data across three sectors: generative AI chatbots, streaming video, and wireless.
Key Consumer Market Insights
Chatbots: Is ChatGPT’s Lead Over?
- Claude (Anthropic) Surges: “We have a new champion and it’s Claude Anthropic. For the first time in our data...they’ve actually surpassed ChatGPT/OpenAI in terms of current users saying, ‘I’m going to use it more’ and likelihood to recommend.” (33:12 – Rob Pace)
- Gemini (Google) Closes the Gap: “Since Gemini 3 came out mid-November...they really fixed both the experience and the quality and they’ve closed the gap with OpenAI.” (33:58 – Rob)
Streaming: YouTube on the Rise
- YouTube Poised to Overtake: “Where we see real strength is in YouTube—and we see it with younger...and more diverse consumers...The key, Jim, is to think about share of time or share of attention.” (35:57 – Rob)
- Netflix's Moves Make Sense: Cramer confesses he changed his view—Netflix's move to acquire Warner Brothers now seems defensive rather than offensive, to shore up against YouTube's rise.
Wireless Carriers: T-Mobile Gains Ground
- T-Mobile Closing In: “T-Mobile has closed that [network] gap such that they're good enough and they do far better on price, value, plan options. Even the in-store experience now is superior.” (37:04 – Rob)
- Value Theme: Shifting market: “There’s one theme we’re seeing—our data is value.” (37:39 – Rob)
Broad Takeaway – Valuation Risks
- Cramer’s warning: “If I were one of these companies putting money in [AI] at a $500 billion valuation, I would think again...You’re not seeing fortress [positions] in our data for sure.” (38:15)
VI. Lightning Round Highlights
Timestamps: 39:04 – 45:02
Rapid verdicts on stocks—with signature Cramer commentary. Notables include:
- Pfizer: “Really good yield, not a lot of momentum. Just weak; hold.” (40:13)
- Elanco (animal pharma): “They are doing everything right. I am so impressed with the way they've turned that company around.” (40:55)
- Rocket Lab: “I think Rocket Lab is better than magical thinking...very good spec ahead of another big offering in the rocket world next year.” (41:03)
- LAC (Lithium Americas): “There’s nothing there for you. That’s a yesteryear stock.” (41:22)
- Deathtronic: “I've never been excited about that scoreboard business...not compelling enough to put your money into.” (41:31)
- Theravance Bio: Cramer needs to do more homework – “You deserve better than that. I will come back.” (41:45)
- Diageo: “Dividend at 5.6 can keep it here...Have to come up with something very special. I don't own stocks just for dividend, but I think it can stop right there because of the dividend.” (42:34)
- M&T Bank: “It’s still not that expensive...I would buy that stock tomorrow morning even though it looks like it's up to spike. There's nothing not to like about M&T Bank.” (43:55)
VII. The Tariff Question — Investing vs. Gambling
Timestamps: 45:19 – 48:20
- Cramer examines the potential Supreme Court decision on US-China tariffs:
- Retailers like Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, Williams Sonoma, and the Gap stand to benefit if tariffs are struck down.
- “If you think the Supreme Court will strike the tariffs down, you know what, I say go to the retailers. I think that every one of these stocks would go up if the supreme strike down the tariffs and if the president prevails, I bet that these retail stocks won’t get hammered all that badly.” (47:00)
- “The better risk/reward is with the stocks, not the prediction markets, because the prediction markets are pure gambling and gambling is all or nothing.” (47:43)
Standout Quotes
“To me, it seems like a lazy Susan transaction of dot-com yore and that’s why I’m saying the bubble popped a while ago and now it’s deflating quickly. That’s good. We want companies doing rational things, not delusional things.”
— Jim Cramer, (07:29)
“The $500 billion valuation [for OpenAI] may be off the mark and people shouldn’t be valuing at that high. Certainly not the investors.”
— Jim Cramer, (05:57)
“We have a new champion and it’s Claude Anthropic. For the first time...they’ve actually surpassed ChatGPT/OpenAI in terms of...likelihood to recommend.”
— Rob Pace, 100x (33:12)
“T-Mobile has closed that gap such that they're good enough and they do far better on price, value, plan options. Even the in-store experience now is superior.”
— Rob Pace, 100x (37:04)
“If I were one of these companies putting money in [AI] at a $500 billion valuation, I would think again...You’re not seeing fortress [positions] in our data for sure.”
— Jim Cramer, (38:15)
Summary Table of Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamp (approx) | Key Content | |-------------------------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | Opening & AI Bubble/Lazy Susan Deals | 01:39 – 12:18 | Market warnings, vendor-financing in tech | | Lightning Round Q&A (first batch) | 12:18 – 14:32 | Roku, Take-Two, Robinhood, et al | | Medline IPO Segment | 14:32 – 21:00 | IPO details, valuation, investor guidance | | Buyback Monsters Segment | 22:21 – 32:50 | Top 10 S&P buyback-heavy stocks, rationale | | 100x Consumer Data Interview | 32:50 – 38:57 | Chatbots, streaming, telco trends | | Lightning Round Q&A (extended) | 39:04 – 45:02 | 10+ stocks, sector insights, trademark Cramer | | Tariffs & Retail Investing vs Gambling | 45:19 – 48:20 | Supreme Court, tariff impact, investing strategy |
Conclusion & Forward View
Cramer closes by reiterating caution around still-inflated AI valuations, especially for those dealing in "lazy Susan" deals—urging investors to wait for more discipline from large tech companies before diving in. On the upside, he sees opportunity in non-tech buyback monsters and undervalued retailers if geopolitical winds shift.
“As always, there’s more market somewhere. I promise I find it just for you.” (48:17)
Useful for Listeners Who Missed the Episode
- Understand key risks in the AI/tech sector right now, especially around circular “vendor financing” deals
- Get actionable ideas on where discipline is returning—and future buying opportunities
- Find a curated list of the best “buyback monster” stocks for EPS growth
- Catch up on fast takes for dozens of individual stocks in the Lightning Round
- See which consumer and tech trends are shifting, powered by fresh data (interview w/ 100x)
For more, visit: madmoney.cnbc.com