Transcript
American Express Representative (0:00)
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Homes.com Representative (0:32)
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Jim Cramer (1:22)
My mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. I got people, my friends. I'm just trying to make you a little extra money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate, to teach you. So call me at 1-800-743- CNBC or tweet me. Jim Cramer. It happened. We did a show this morning and we didn't talk about the Federal Reserve other than when I said to my squawk on the street, colleagues, isn't it great not to talk about the Federal Reserve? Meta commentary doesn't count. So on a day when The Dow advanced 131 points, the SB gain point 61%, the NASDAQ jumped 1.28%, I want to talk about an amazing change and it's in the ether the idea that we won't have to care so much about what the Fed does to help or hurt business or even what they say. Instead, we can focus on what business will do to help you Ever since COVID we've had to deal with these endless hammerings about what the Fed will or won't do. As the pandemic raised, the Fed cut rates and cut rates. Their every move reverberated through the stock market, sentence soaring. Then when the Fed switched to being restrictive and created a bear market to knock out hundreds of companies that just come public, stunting the growth of many domestic companies. When the Fed switched directions again to easing last September, lots of stocks went up. A way to go back down when it turned out that the bond market wasn't playing ball. Got this weird market where we started doubting the Fed's every move because the bond bullies kept contradicting it. The Fed cut short rates, only see longer term rates go higher. Lots of back and forth on that one crazy moment. But you had no choice because under Biden, when it came to stocks, Jay Powell and his Murray band of governors and regional presidents, well, they were the only game in town. But then President Trump takes office and suddenly we don't really care what these Feds have to say. Who were they anyway? You know why? Because it may not matter anymore. Interest rates always matter. That's not going to change. However, out here it feels like we may be back in the world that I remember. A world where the Fed only plays a role at extreme moments. A world where we don't have to guess and guess and guess their next move or even listen to what the regional governors are saying because it won't be that important in the barges. Lots of times the Fed might have a bias, but it hasn't always had that much impact on the action. The Fed always had the last word under Biden, though. Before him, though, business is what mattered. Homework about business, not homework about the Fed. And in that kind of world, there are some really terrific investing opportunities for you and for me. Or to put it as bluntly as I can, this market is no longer a word of the Fed. Stocks are going to trade on earnings, not just on interest rates. And I think that frankly, is terrific. Now in some ways what's happened is we now have a President who's friendly with big business in a very hands on way. He's speaking to more CEOs than any president I've ever seen. In the last 24 hours, he's probably spoken to more than any president I've ever seen. He's putting together gigantic deals like he's a business person. The Stargate is planning to build so many Data centers, only $500 billion worth, that the stocks of Oracle, SoftBank, ARM holdings and Nvidia went through the roof this morning on swag the Street. Rene Haas, CEO of aam, told me that Stargate could create tremendous demand for all datacenter equipment, especially high end chips from Nvidia. To those who thought that there might not be enough customers in videos latest and greatest product, Blackwell, think again. Right at this moment, President Trump is trying to put a deal together with the United States government, partnering with someone to buy TikTok or its Chinese parent company, ByteDance or whatever. Yeah, now this one's totally wild. Get this. He's basically saying to China, look, you can sell us this very valuable asset right now at a reduced price, mind you, and we're going to run with it and we're going to, we're going to run with the American company of our choice or we can just close it and make it worthless. It's your choice. Yeah, he's literally making an offer that the Chinese can't refuse. He's given the Godfather treatment. Why can't other people see that? That's what's happening? At the same time, he's remaking the oil and gas business on the fly. I think Trump wants to bring the price of oil gas down in a 2 for 1 deal, getting inflation lower here, beating the Russians dry because they need oil and gas prices to stay high in order to fund the war in Ukraine. Two for. And he's making it clear that he favors more commerce with China, something that Wall street sees as a possible win for American semiconductor companies whose exports have been restricted because of fears probably well grounded, that China would use the chips for military purposes. I go through this litany for one reason, one reason only. Hate them or like them. The level of activity is creating something that the Fed hasn't been able to do. It's creating an economy in a stock market dominated by what we call animal spirits. And the animal spirits are good for stock prices. Before going to this term animal spirits, let me just say, first of all, it's always bothered me because it kind of obfuscates rather than lightens. It's like when I asked my former wife, Karen Kramer, tremendous stock trader, why a certain stock was going higher. And she say, more buyers and sellers, what good is that? But the fact is, whether you like Trump or hate him, he's now the son that the economic solar system revolves around. He and not Jay Powell most likely determine the direction the stock market and he wants it to go higher. I think this president, if he saw the market go down For a couple of days he'll call up Elon Musk and say, hey man, let's get something positive. Launch some rockets, do an IPO for that Starlink thing or call Larry Ellison from Oracle. Say what else can work? Well do let's get another deal going with the Chinese or maybe a cold David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan say, hey man, we got to get some puppies. You got to get some public here. Let's go down the New York stocks, inside deals and that's how we're going to do business for the next four years. Or maybe you'll just wake up and call the heads of the states of a whole bunch of countries to say he didn't like how business they held little business they did with the United States last month. So he's going to cut off their oxygen unless they do more buying. Yeah, I think he's going to look at it like a ledger. That's how positive animal spirits do get generated. Though this is not something Trump always did perfectly well in the first term, but he seems to have got a better handle on it now that he's back in office, possibly because more CEOs are willing to cooperate. Also because he's in touch with CEOs from the tech industry. Now, I'm not saying that he's focused on the SB500 Dow every minute of the day, although he sure seems to have discovered the nasdaq. I am saying that the contrast between Trump and the energy that he's putting into business versus what Biden did is striking. Biden had an aversion to talking about business, except when it came to climate change. He didn't seem to care for CEOs. Even when he did good things for a particular industry like the CHIPS act, he wasn't the one dealing with them or taking seem to be all that much pride in it. Because of his absence, the focus shifted to Fed Chief Jay Powell as the most important person in the economic firmament. That's over. Here's the bottom line we're now looking at changing of the guard from pal to Trump. Oh, it won't be easy as one's pretty predictable guy and the other's a wild card. And if you have to ask me which is which, then you aren't ready to handle the next four days, let alone the next four years. Mark Hillroy. Mark Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call. No problemo. What's happening?