Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 12/5/24

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (12/5/24)
Released on December 6, 2024

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1. Introduction and Market Overview

Jim Cramer kickstarts the episode with his characteristic enthusiasm, emphasizing his mission to "make you money" and level the playing field for all investors. He highlights the day's significant market movements, noting that the Dow fell by 248 points (–1.1%), NASDAQ declined by 18%, and Bitcoin surged past the $100,000 mark before pulling back. Cramer sets the stage for a deep dive into the interplay between cryptocurrencies and traditional stocks, asserting the importance of diversification in investment portfolios.

2. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Commentary

Cramer addresses recent speculations about Bitcoin's peak, clarifying his long-standing belief in its potential. He references his initial investment in Bitcoin on September 15, 2020, and recounts his foray into Ethereum through an NFT auction in April 2021. Despite temporary setbacks, Cramer maintains a bullish stance on Bitcoin, attributing its rise to strategic moves, including the promised establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the then-President-elect Trump.

Notable Quote:
"My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it." (00:58)

3. Highlighting Stock Market Winners

Cramer celebrates the anniversaries and successes of major stocks:

• Costco: Celebrates its growth since going public on December 5, 1985, now trading at an all-time high of $991, surpassing Bitcoin's performance.

• Amazon: Highlights the staggering returns from its IPO in May 1997, where a $1,000 investment would now be worth nearly $3 million, crediting its diversification into AWS.

• Tesla: Acknowledges Tesla's phenomenal growth since its IPO in June 2010, where a $1,000 investment would now be over $326,000.

• Palantir: Praises Palantir's impressive 619% return since its IPO, despite initial skepticism, and underscores its resilience against market downturns.

• Nvidia: Jokes about renaming his dog to Nvidia back in June 2017, which would have turned a $1,000 investment into $37,399.

Cramer’s Insight:
"I couldn't brag because it's better to be lucky than good. Still, I found myself struggling to feel relevant this morning..." (05:00)

4. Analyzing Discount Store Chains

Jim delves into the recent earnings reports of leading discount store chains—Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Dollar General—evaluating their performance amidst a challenging economic landscape.

• Dollar Tree: Despite a 50% stock decline for the year, Dollar Tree reported a 1.8% beat in earnings and increased its full-year forecast. The company's strategy to carry more consumables, now nearly half of sales, and the successful Multiprice 3.0 store format have contributed to improved same-store sales.

  Quote:
  "These stores now produce roughly 30% of Dollar Tree's revenues and their same store sales were up 3.3%." (07:30)

• Five Below: Exhibited a robust performance with earnings significantly beating expectations and a 0.6% rise in same-store sales. The departure of CEO Joel Andersen and the appointment of Winnie Park as the new CEO signal a positive turnaround. However, challenges such as potential tariffs on 60% of their merchandise from China loom.

  Quote:
  "Five Below has got a better formula than the standard dollar stores, and I'm eager to hear more about this new CEO and what she's bringing to the table." (09:15)

• Dollar General: Showed mixed results with better-than-expected same-store sales driven by increased average transaction amounts and traffic. However, the company faces ongoing challenges with low-margin consumables and a customers' stretched budgets.

  Quote:
  "Most of the Dollar Store names got too cheap. But looking ahead, they've got some real problems." (10:43)

Cramer concludes that among the discount retailers, Five Below stands out as the most promising investment due to its innovative approach and solid management changes.

5. IPO Market Insights: The Reddit Phenomenon

Cramer examines the state of the IPO market, focusing on Reddit's remarkable performance since its public debut in March 2024. Reddit's stock has soared over 350%, highlighting the scarcity of IPOs in 2024, which drove significant gains for the few that did go public.

Notable Quote:
"Reddit's IPO, priced $34, opened at $50 and changed, and since then it's never really looked back, surging to $153 as of today." (21:01)

He attributes this surge to a limited number of IPOs and substantial venture capital backing, making stocks like Reddit trading at lofty valuations (13x 2026 sales estimates) appear overvalued compared to industry standards like Meta Platforms.

Cramer’s Conclusion:
"We need more IPOs. Consider Landbridge... The bottom line, I'm begging you to remain grounded in this environment of incredible exuberance." (29:38)

6. Deep Dive: Fintech Company Upstart Holdings

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing Upstart Holdings, a consumer lending platform. Cramer presents conflicting analyst opinions:

• JP Morgan's View: Downgrades Upstart from neutral to sell due to deteriorated financials, including reduced revenue and ongoing unprofitability. They question the sustainability of Upstart's AI-driven lending technology compared to traditional FICO scores.

  Quote:
  "The company has much less revenue these days... Upstart's price journey multiple should expand as the company goes from fin to tech." (30:36)

• Redburn Atlantic's Perspective: Upgrades Upstart to buy, citing positive earnings surprises, innovative AI integrations, and potential growth in auto loans and home equity lines of credit. They project a bullish price target of $95.

  Quote:
  "He's a would argue that Upstart can get to $250 in the next five years. Now that would represent a 240% gain from here." (39:03)

Cramer's Analysis:
While acknowledging Upstart's recent improvements and Redburn's optimism, Cramer remains skeptical about the company's valuation and long-term prospects, especially given the strong economy reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts essential for Upstart’s growth.

Final Take:
"While I'm truly happy for the Upstart bulls, I really am not ready to join their camp yet." (39:03)

7. Lightning Round and Caller Interactions

The episode features a lively Lightning Round segment where Cramer responds to various caller inquiries about specific stocks:

• Hasbro (HAS): Cramer praises its undervaluation and resilience amidst market hype.

  Quote:
  "I really like your stock, that it's just seems to be too cheap for me." (09:38)

• AT&T: Advises continued holding based on CEO John Stanky's strategic shift towards core connectivity businesses.

  Quote:
  "What we do here, I will tell you. I want you to hold it." (10:43)

• Oracle: Admits taking a hit due to delayed turnaround but suggests taking some profits as the stock climbs.

  Quote:
  "I'd take some off the table. But someone might just say, Jim, you told us to get out of it much lower." (29:40)

• Rivian: Expresses caution in the volatile auto sector, recommending staying invested for survival rather than growth.

  Quote:
  "Rivian, I think, is a safe bet to stay alive, which is what I care about." (30:27)

• Super Micro: Reiterates his stance against investing in companies with accounting irregularities, emphasizing discipline over speculative gains.

  Quote:
  "Accounting irregularities equal sell." (31:05)

Cramer's Advice:
He urges investors to remain level-headed amidst market exuberance, advocating for taking profits from overvalued IPOs to mitigate potential downturns.

8. Closing Thoughts on Investment Strategy

In his concluding remarks, Cramer underscores the importance of recognizing that paper gains aren't realized until sold. He warns against complacency, recalling past market overextensions like the dot-com bubble, where failing to sell at peaks led to significant losses.

Notable Quote:
"You need to imagine a world where assets not only go up, but occasionally they go down. Imagine a world where the bank doesn't take former profits that are now losses." (42:02)

Cramer reiterates his stance against overexuberance, encouraging investors to secure profits and remain cautious of speculative bubbles, whether in cryptocurrencies, IPOs, or high-flying stocks.

Conclusion

Jim Cramer's episode of "Mad Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current financial landscape, balancing bullish sentiments on established stocks and cryptocurrencies with cautionary advice on overvalued IPOs and speculative investments. His emphasis on diversification, disciplined profit-taking, and awareness of market cycles serves as a guiding framework for investors navigating the complexities of Wall Street.

Final Quote:
"All these gains are purely on paper until you ring the darn register." (43:30)

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Note: Timestamps refer to the transcript timecodes provided.

Transcript

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[Merrill Lynch]

This episode is brought to you by Merrill. With a dedicated Merrill advisor. You get a personalized plan for your financial goals. And when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk Merrill Lynch, Piers Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member SIPC.

[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. All through my friends, I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to explain what the heck's going on here. Cause it's crazy. Call me 1-800-7-4th of BCBC with me, Jim Kramer. Right, that's it. I give up Bitcoin. You win. There, I said it. Now you can either say I just called the top of bitcoin or say Kramer's given up on stocks, just wants us to swap into something that's moved bigly since July 27th when the President elect gave you the high side to buy. So in a day where The Dow lost 248 points as we did,.1%, NASDAQ declined.18% after Bitcoin trounced the $100,000 level last night. Before pulling back, today, I want to discuss bitcoin. Really I do. Not to the detriment of stocks. But in addition to stocks, I come to praise bitcoin, not bury it. First, let's dispel the idea that I've never believed in bitcoin. Now, if you search YouTube, you can see that I first bought Bitcoin on September 15, 2020, when it was just over $10,000. So no top caller me, not. Not here. Oh, and for the record, back in April 2021, I decided to participate in auction to buy the NFT for the iconic is God Dead Time magazine cover from April 8th of 1996. Even though I had no idea what a fungible token was, let alone a non fungible one. The transaction had to be done in Ethereum. So. So I dutifully bought an undisclosed amount of Ethereum to try to win. I lost the auction, but I forgot to sell the Ethereum. And when I discovered the error, I appreciated so mightily that I was able to cash out and buy a lot large farm in an undisclosed location. So you may think I'm calling the top by celebrating Bitcoin at $100,000. I say au contraire mon frere. I've been recommending it for years. Just like I've been bragging about getting lucky in Ethereum. I couldn't brag because it's better to be lucky than good. Still, I found myself struggling to feel relevant this morning while talking to my partner David Faber. We were right over there. This is where I go. You probably don't realize it. I was right over there, okay? I was walking the street and I was really down. I was glum chum. You know what I was thinking? I think wow, wait a second. Am I ever relevant Focusing on stocks like Signet jewelers down over 11% or Kroger up 1% when there was crypto money being given away by President elect Trump. When I 27 he told you that the federal government would go all in on Bitcoin if you won. Back then Bitcoin stood a little less than 70 GS. Trump promised to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve and make America the crypto capital of the world. It bitcoin stock and you had conviction Trump would try of an easy win rate. His endorsement was ironclad as he said during that fabled Nashville speech. Quote if crypto is going to define the future, I wanted it to be mine minute and made the USA end quote. Whether or not you think that's good policy clearly is good for people on crypto. Let's belabor the strategic bitcoin reserve thing for a moment. While in Nashville, Trump met with the biggest crypto mining firm execs to talk about this reserve. If this were oil and he met with the biggest oil execs, promised them he build a reserve and then shared his plan with the public before he did it. Well, you would want to bet on oil. With a Trump victory, you could have bought bitcoin at around 68,000. July get roughly 100,000 today. Talk about fungible. But then it hit me yesterday at my colleague Andrew Sorkin's deal book conference. I heard Fed chief Jay Powell talk about how he believes people are buying Bitcoin as a store of value like gold because there's not much transaction done in Bitcoin. I've always endorsed keeping up to 10% of your portfolio in gold as a kind of insurance against the world's lunacy. But for years now, I've also been saying Bitcoin's a final turnaround to gold. For that 10% position, why not? I think the federal budget deficit is an impossible levels. I don't be wedded to a currency backed by the full faith and credit of a country that owes $36 trillion. Sure, you might have been all in bitcoin. You know what? Terrific. Me too. But what if I told you there are indeed other ideas hidden in plain sight in the stock market? Ideas that you could have owned the other 90% of your portfolio that wasn't Bitcoin. Why don't we start with today? I want to say happy anniversary to Costco. Split, adjusted, excluding regular and special dividends, Costco stock came public at a buck 67 a share December 5th. Yet today, in 1985. Yesterday Costco hit an all time high of $991. Take that, Bitcoin. Okay, maybe you weren't alive or you weren't at child and your child in 1985, maybe to know Costco from. No, no. Let me give you four great stocks that in retrospect were incredibly obvious winners, even as we might not have known it at the time. Let's say you put $1,000 in Amazon at its IPO of May 15, 1997. You know, that would be $2,940,667. A bookstore, online or future retail and advertising powerhouse. One of the greatest businesses of all time. Amazon Web Services, 2.9 million. That is staggering. Well, then there's the most obvious winner of all. The Elon Musk Tesla. If you put $1,000 in Tesla at the time of its IPO June 29, 2010. Easy peasy, right? You now have to $326,021 again, too long ago. Okay, I get that. All right. What's the most loved stock in this market today? That's pretty easy. I'd say it's Palantir, which is a terrific example because that company's pretty opaque. Kind of like the NFT. If you had bought $1,000 in the now obvious Palantir IPO a little over four years ago, you'd have $7,187, 619% return. Oh, and told you that moment bounced right back from yesterday's travails. Now let's really go there. Okay, let's do this. Desperate to call attention to what I said could be the greatest Stock Ever, on June 20, 2017, I took the extraordinary measure of renaming my dog Everest. From then on, I said he would no longer be Everest. His name would be Nvidia. Now, if you listen to this crazed lunatic that day and invested $1,000 in Nvidia, you'd have $37,399. That's right, 1,000 into $37,399 simply by watching a video of a guy on the floor of the exchange no more than about 20 yards from here talking about how his dog responds to the name Nvidia. Especially if you have a T bone in your hand. Which brings me to my rather harsh point. Yes, Bitcoin holders, congratulations. You got a chance to run ahead of the President elect's promise to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. Good for you. So in another desperate gambit for relevance, just like with the Everest in video transition, all masking is to be somewhat diversified. If you miss bitcoin, if you buy some today, hold it. As the President elect, would it be too much to ask that you throw in some stocks as part of that portfolio? Go with some of the most obvious names. I don't care. I still like them. Costco, Amazon, the implacable Tesla, the infatuating Palantir, the canine of an equity that is in video. We own two of these for the travel trust, Costco, Nvidia. So you might purchase them simply by being a member of CNBC investing club. We'll even keep you updated on my point. Should be obvious by now, right? Well, we could become the bitcoin network. Especially since President elect Trump christened us as the bitcoin nation. I actually think there's more to investing than just owning cryptocurrencies. You got the Costco with that Musk membership card, right? The Amazon Palantir with that wild Molly Alice Carp, CEO. I love that guy. And you could own the stock of the richest person on earth and certainly the second most powerful person in the bitcoin nation, Elon Musk. Invidious. No dog. It's the best of breed there. Bitcoin is part of the most obviously diversified portfolio in recent history. Buying and holding stocks can be just as lucrative as buying bitcoin. Six days after Biden dropped out of the race, or maybe, just maybe, it can make you even more money. Bottom line, I say unbo stocks in crypto. That way if Trump ever gets around to saying you have to buy Tesla, well, you got the edge on. And if you're diversified with Costco, Amazon, Palantir, Nvidia, Tesla and Bitcoin, then what the heck. Congratulations. Your richest, precious, maybe richer. Well played, Darren in Texas. Darren.

[Caller]

Booyah. Jim. First I want to set up my family and South Alvin's queen New York and also shout out to the Reddit pirates that community are this couple I.

[Jim Cramer]

Like both of us. My wife's from Queens, so I'm all board there. She's from Flushing, whatever the hell that is. Go ahead. Who names the town Flushing? What is that about? Okay, go ahead, tell me about it.

[Caller]

Yes, this company I'm looking at has a Ford PE of 15 with a 4% dividend yield and has a very popular card game underneath it called Magic the Gathering. I'm talking About Hasbro ticker symbol 8.

[Jim Cramer]

As what I just told someone from Hasbro the other day that I really like your stock, that it just seems to be too cheap for me, that it's gotten caught in all the hoopla of all these other stocks and it's be. Frankly, it's, it's overlooked. I like you. You got horse sense. Must be with the thing in Queens, you know, because like, I think Faber's even from there. How about Tina and Wisconsin?

[Tina]

Hi, Jim. Yeah, my name is Tina. I'm from Delavan, Wisconsin, where scousaling is just as important as cheese. Hey, Kramer, good luck tonight.

[Jim Cramer]

Good luck tonight. Okay.

[Tina]

Hey, Kramer, you gave it your all. And that's why my family loves you. My two college age sons watch your show and they love research companies because of your enthusiasm.

[Jim Cramer]

That's what I want. That's how people get wealthy. Now, you're going to make mistakes. We all do. But that is the prescription for wealth. How can I help you?

[Tina]

Yeah, well, so I started acquiring AT&T stock in 1997 through an ESOP and chose to hang on to the Ameritech and SBC partnerships because I believe in the company's culture and products. I've seen the price go down to 14 and go as high as 44. It's been a roller coaster, however, because of the dividend, I've never sold. So with CEO John Stanky's new strategy of discouraging additional debt by giving up on the media pursuits like WarnerMedia and DirecTV and instead focusing on its core connectivity business, wireless and fiber networks. Should I continue to be a loyal AT and T supporter and hope it can reach $44 again or cash in now on its recent rise and not no.

[Jim Cramer]

First of all, thank you for your concern and for your endorsement. What we do here, I will tell you. I want you to hold it. I think that Stanky's pulled it off. I think it's great that he changed his tune. I think the stock goes higher and well played right? As we take note of bitcoin hitting the $100,000 level, it's worth remembering that buying and holding stocks has proven to be just as lucrative as bit coin. You can take a little off the table if you want to. I say it's worth earning both assets. So that's my plan on Mad Money. Tonight. I'm breaking down the latest earnings from discount store chains Dollar General and Five Below and Dollar Tree and see if the names are worth keeping in your cart. After a tough stretch then this year IPO's class was full of red hot performers. But can those games last? I'm going to tell you where I stand on Reddit and many others that have soared since joining the market. What's ahead for fintech player Upstart? After some mixed analyst commentary, I'm putting the reports head to head and revealing come down. So stay with Kramer.

[CNBC]

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

Have the dollar stores finally gotten too cheap after their massive declines this year? Since yesterday we've heard from Dollar General, Dollar Tree and five Below, which is Dollar Store adjacent. And for the first time in several quarters, you know what? The news wasn't all that terrible. Let's take them in order, Dollar Tree reported yesterday morning. And with the stock that was down nearly 50% for the year going the quarter, expectations weren't exactly sky high, but at least they were finally low enough for Dollar Tree to deliver. Clean top and bottom line beat with 1.8%. Same store sales growth. Wall street was only looking for 1.3. At the same time, management actually raised their full year forecast. Turns out Dollar Tree is taking market share. They've got more traffic and customers are spending more on each visit. The traffic was especially strong at their family Dollar Sub brand which has struggled since they bought it years ago. That's kind of struck me really by surprise now. All year the dollar stores have been hammered relentlessly because they're not really dollar stores anymore. They've had to raise prices to offset their higher costs. Plus they cater to lower income households whose budgets we know are most stretched. Dollar Tree has found a way to cope though. Carry more cheap food. With consumables now accounting for nearly half of their sales. It's a big and that's what the choppers really want. Unfortunately, the other half of the business is still discretionary, which is not in good shape. Dolce cut out the success of their Multiprice 3.0 store format, which offers various price points as a way to retain their value proposition while still carrying higher margin products. Companies converted another 720 stores to the 3.0 format last quarter, bringing the total number of converted stores to approximately 2300. These stores now produce roughly 30% of Dollar Tree's revenues and their same store sales were up 3.3%. Very good. Hey get this. Consumables up 6.6% of course it wasn't perfect. Dollar Tree beat the expectations, sure, but the bar was pretty low. Management called out softer trends in November with the expectation that December will be impacted by a shorter holiday season. Turns out there are indeed five fewer selling days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year. Doesn't help. The Dollar Tree still looking for a new CEO as well as a new CFO after Jeff Davis agreed to step down following the filing the 10K I say ouch. There's also the question potential tariffs which could do some serious threat damage to the whole group. Interim CEO Michael Creedon noted that when they last dealt with the trade war issue, Dollar Tree was able to, quote, mitigate the majority of the potential impact by negotiating lower costs with our suppliers, changing product specs or pack sizes, or dropping non economical items. End quote. He went on to say that all three of these options are once again still at the beck and call, I think. But I well it won't be cheap. Next up, last night we heard from Five Below, another value chain where everything's five bucks or less. You know this was good because the stock shot up more than 10% today, although again it's bouncing off very low levels. What happened? I5 below delivered a monster 25 cent adjusted earnings beat off a 70 cent basis, substantially higher than expected revenues and same store sales up point six percent. But Wall street was looking for a four percent decline so that does count as a huge beat. Five of those made a lot of progress since the total implosion the second quarter. They actually had to preannounce that disaster back in July along with the news that their president CEO Joel Andersen, been on the show a couple of times, had stepped down from the role to pursue other interests. A kind of NFL speak for fired. Hey, Joel actually made the jump to Petco. Don't worry about him. Since then Five Below has been focused on improving the value of the products and the in store experience and I think it's working. For a long time. The key differentiator for this business was its ability to quickly identify new trends, capitalize on them, give you kind of a treasure hunting experience for its customers. The huge same store sales beat tells us they're back on track with management calling out tailwinds in tech style and candy always like their candy assortment, along with a strong seasonal assortment itself, which together represents over half of the business. As for the current quarter, Five Below says the holiday season is off to a solid start with Black Friday weekend coming in in line with their own expectations, even though they face the same shorter holiday season as everyone else. Management also announced that the CEO and current interim CEO Kenneth Bull will continue his his role as CEO, while Winnie park, new name CEO of Forever 21, will be taking the reins of the permanent CEO as permanent CEO of Five. People like that, it's encouraging the new CEO has a tough road ahead. Potential tariffs brought in by the second Trump administration. Like Dollar Tree, they have a bunch of tactics they can use to offset the damage from high tech tariffs. But you see making making that happen won't be easy because an astounding 60% of Five Below's merchandise comes from China. Finally, there's Dow Generally, which reported this morning unlike Five Below, the stock barely budged because Dollar General's results were more mixed better than expected revenue pair with an earnings miss Quizzical, but that's thanks maybe to the big hurricanes in the Southeast. Still, Dollar General same store sales were better than expected, driven by a 1.1% increase in average transaction amount and a point 3 increase in traffic. Meager but better than expected. Like Dollar Tree, Dollar General seen significant growth in the consumables category. Unfortunately, consumables carry some of the lowest margins of their assortment. While the quarter ended on a high note with same store sales growth being strongest October, management noted that the last full calendar weeks of both August and September were the weakest of the quarter, suggesting that their customers are living paycheck to paycheck still and struggling to stretch their budgets. And that is suboptimal. Management also mentioned that the heightened promotional environment persisted throughout the quarter and they expect that to continue into the next next year. Suboptimal so after hearing from the Discount General gang, where do I come down on these? At the end of the day, most of the Dollar Store names got too cheap. But looking ahead, they've got some real problems. They're competing with Amazon and Wal Mart. They're competing with each other, and a new round of Trump tariffs could be pretty darn costly. Honestly, as I read through these conference calls, I found myself wondering why do we need all these dollar stores? Are they really offering better value than a Wal Mart or Costco or Amazon? Wal Mart's doing great. Why make the things hard on yourself by owning Dollar Tree or Dollar General stock? Bottom line If I had to pick one of these names, I probably go with five Below. They've got a better formula than the standard dollar stores, and I'm eager to hear more about this new CEO and what she's bringing to the table. Consider this a standing invitation to come on the show and explain why five Below is worth getting even more excited about than I am right now. Mad Money is back after the break.

[CNBC]

Coming up as 2024 draws to a close, Kramer's reviewing this year's class of IPOs and giving his take on what the last 12 months of public debuts signal about this market next.

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[Jim Cramer]

In this bull market, even if it took a breather today, although not necessarily tonight, you need to stay level headed. I'm not borrowing a page from Public Enemy and telling you don't believe the hype, but I'd be remiss not to say that there are definite areas of excess out there. Think of me as kind of a traffic cop or designated driver, someone with a sober, albeit scolding, perspective to balance out the relentless bullishness that we all feel. That's why tonight I feel compelled to tell to call out another area where things are getting frothy, and that's the best performing IPOs of the year. One's like a real favorite of mine, Reddit. Once we reach December, money managers love to pile into the year's biggest winners, even if they're already up huge, and Reddit has been a part of that process. Yet the stock of Reddit, which I have repeatedly, unabashedly praised, is already up over 350% from where it came public in March. Its IPO, priced $34, opened at 50 and changed. And since then it's never really looked back, surging to 153 as of today. Now don't get me wrong again, I love Reddit the stock. I love Reddit the numbers. I love the business. A little more mixed on Reddit, the message board platform, but only because some of those subreddits are full of people who make me look calm and balanced in early hours. Worried this become a cold stock. But after speaking to co founder and CEO Steve Huff Huffman in May, right after Reddit reported Block quarter, I eagerly embrace the stock. Hoffman's a total pro, really terrific at his job. Citizen Reddit's report Upside Surprise. If you're upside surprise, it's a truly unique property in the digital advertising space. The best way to reach certain consumers in certain attractive demographics. No one else is getting to these groups. So again, I'm giving you my credentials as a Reddit lover, not a hater. I've been a bull in the stock since May. The latest quarter report at the end of October was a thing of beauty. It's no wonder the stock searched 42% the next day. But the crazy thing is it just keeps going up and up. Technically, the stocks hit its all time high of 158 and change on November 21st, but after a quick pullback to the 130s last week, it's found another win. Back to the 150s. I say terrific. But here's the problem with the stock now more than triple where it was when we spoke to Huffman in May and nearly double where it was when we last spoke to Huffman just a five weeks ago. Yeah, it's starting to feel, I don't know, a little excessive. Red. It's not. Roughly $27 billion means trading at 13 times 2026 sales or 41 times 2026 earnings. But that's before interest, taxation, depreciation, amortization. And I've got to tell you that I don't think there's any denying those levels are very rich by any conventional standard. By comparison, the social media gold standard, which is meta platforms, trades just seven times the 2026 revenue estimates, or less than 12 times as 2026 EBITDA estimates. Now again, I'm going to caveat. You could argue that Reddit deserves this massive premium because the estimates are still too low even after three beat and race quarters out of the gate. With accelerating revenue growth, anything feels possible. But to me it's incredibly Hard to justify this kind of valuation. I think you have to agree with that. But rather than lecturing you about how the stock's too expensive, I want to explain how this happened. Because it's not just red, it's one example. Nearly all the best performing IPOs of the year have shot up to absurd levels at this point, in part because we just haven't seen that many deals in 2024. Scarcity value. According to Renaissance Capital, the IPO research firm, we've had only 139 initial public offerings here. And while that's up 31% from last year, it's still down huge from 397 deals in 2021, 221 deals in 2020. Despite endless record highs, the IPO market still meaningfully below 2019, 2018, 2017 levels. I think it's more abundant now. Some of that's because many companies were hoping for interest rates to come down before they came public. And in some ways we still haven't gotten over the great IPO bust of 2022. Plus, the best private companies don't really have to come public anymore. They can raise as much capital as they need in the private market these days. Many people thought we'd get a huge IPO from databricks, me included. This is a data storage and analytics play that competes with Snowflake. Deal never came through though. And now we know why. Databricks is working on a $5 billion fundraising round that would value the company 55 billion. They don't need the public markets. Or just look at one of the highest valued startups in the world. Open. It raised 6.6 billion at $157 billion valuation. October. Tons of funding from Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank, Elon Musk. Space X remains private. It was valued at 210 billion in a tender offer of shares earlier this year. It's apparently weighing a similar transaction this time. 350 billion. Just like Tesla, Space X can now get that Trump premium. And it doesn't even need to come public to make it happen. If these companies did come public, they'd have to answer to scrupulous analysts and investors every three months. Not to mention the SEC. The securities and Exchange Commission is very hard on IPOs. If a small group of venture capitalists is willing to assign these companies ever growing valuations, give them all the money they need, they have zero need or interest, frankly, to come public. I think it's way too difficult to come public in this country. I hope the new administration does something about it. It's wrong. Why does it matter? Because the great companies that do come public suddenly have real scarcity value. Again, it's not just Reddit. When you look at the seven best performers from the IPO class of 2024 all the ones that have more than doubled from their offer price, you can see the same dynamic. There just aren't enough deals. We need more IPOs. Consider Landbridge. Lamborghini is up 306% is a land and resource management company controls 227,000 surface acres in the oil rich Permian basin. This become one of the hottest areas in the market. Just see Texas Pacific Land Corp. Land Bridges fits the bill perfectly. So the stocks more than quadruple from its offer price low. Our holdings up 225% is a niche aerospace and defense company components maker that's a hot area too. So the war is roared as their labs is an infrastructure play. Not many of these have come public so as there is up 220% American health care REIT that's a play on outpatient care, senior housing and other hot areas in health care. Zoom Zoom Zoom up 141% Bounce Specialty Holdings Tweety those are both insurance companies. With premiums at their highest levels in years. These shiny new objects in a hot sector have both doubled. So we dig into what's happening in space. I think this froth in IPO land is a result of the fact that we simply haven't had as many IPOs as we'd expected this year. Think about it. With the best performers best performers putting up such spectacular gains, you think privately held companies would be rushing to come public. But that just hasn't happened because there's so much more venture capital money floating around and it's so difficult to become public. How long can this last? At least until we start seeing many more IPOs with much more money being raised. And when that happens, you'll start seeing people sell this year's top performing IPOs to raise funds for the next big deals. That's the typical tale of the market. These IPO cycles don't run out of steam until we get flooded with newspapers supply and there is no more money left to buy stocks. But we're nowhere near that point, are we? In fact, we seem pretty darn far away. We're at these new highs. It should be happening. Here's the bottom line. I'm begging you to remain grounded in this environment of incredible exuberance. If you're in One of these IPOs is double or triple or quadruple why not just sell some of your position? So you're playing with the house's money. Remember, all these gains are purely on paper until you ring the darn register. Yes, there's a good chance that you won't make as much money because of what I'm saying, but there's also a good chance that you'll have no regrets if the market ever takes a big hit and these red hots cool down dramatically. Something that now and again has known to happen. Oh, and don't worry, if it happens, you can always get right back in at deliciously lower levels with that capital you took off the table. But the really great news here is if you bought Reddit when I first recommend it, you can always take some off the table and play with the house's money, making it impossible to lose. Let's take calls. Let's go to Joe in New York. Joe.

[Caller]

Hi, Joe, how are you?

[Jim Cramer]

I am good, Joe. How about you?

[Caller]

Doing fine. Thank you so much for taking my call, Jimmy.

[Jim Cramer]

Sure.

[Caller]

My stock, my friend, is Oracle. Their earnings are due in a few days. I don't know, should I hold this? What's your outlook on it?

[Jim Cramer]

Okay. It's funny you mentioned this. You know, I talk a lot about the winners, my terrible trust. I have to tell you that I took a. I took a hit in Oracle because I kept waiting for the turn to occur. But the turn is now occurring. It is up gigantically. It's up 76%. There wouldn't be anything we take a little bit off the table. I wouldn't mind doing that, but someone might just say, jim, you told us to get out of it much lower. So. Therefore, my credibility is not as great in Oracle as is many of the stocks we talk about. But I still thank you for your trust. Let's go to John in Washington. John. Booyah.

[Caller]

Jimmy, chill.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, man, the chill man is in town. What's happening? We're chilling here, by the way.

[Caller]

Hey, what do you think about Rivian stock? We're going 20, 25.

[Jim Cramer]

I don't like the autos. Rivian, I think, is a safe bet to stay alive, which is what I care about. But as far as the common stock, I think they should keep raising money. It's really hard to be an auto company. I need to go to Robbie in California.

[Caller]

Robbie, Tim Boya from California.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah. What's going on?

[Caller]

Well, a few weeks ago you said to hold off on Super Micro due to irregularities, but I'm going to back the truck up. What do you think?

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so this is really a difficult one for me. And the reason is because, because of my discipline of accounting regularities equal sell, I can't violate that. I've been saying it for a while now and I can't deviate. There will be other people say you know, what is worth the risk, but my rules that are grounded in 40 years of investing say accounting irregularities. It's just not going to be something I can recommend on bad money. All right, now listen, you have to stay grounded. This exuberant environment is exhibited by police. And if you do own some of these red hot IPOs and you got into some because of my relentless pushing, I'm suggesting you sell some of that position. So you're playing with at least some of the house's money. All right, much more mad money ahead, including my look at the bull bear cases for Upstart. After some contradicting analyst notes. Then I'm taking a closer look at today's crypto moves and giving you my latest and profit taking in this tape. So all your calls of course, rapid fire, tonight's edition of the Lightning round. So stay with Kramer. Crazy moves in the financial technology space. I think as people are betting the Trump administration will have a much more laissez faire attitude on the regulatory front. Ever since the election, the fintech gains have been remarkable. Robinhood up 56%. Affirms up 50%. So fight technology is rally 37%. And those, the big boys, the small ones, rally even harder. That's why tonight I want to focus on one particular fintech play that you might be familiar with from the show upstart Holdings. For those of you who don't remember, upstart is a consumer lending platform that connects millions of consumers with over 100 banks and credit unions that use the company's AI models and cloud software to make lending decisions. At the same time, Upstart does a good deal of lending on its own. This company came public at the very end of 2020 and it was one of the hottest stocks in the plan for much of 2021, rising from an IPO price of $20 to an all time high of $401 in mid October of 2021. And then it just collapsed like all the other hottest stocks in 2021, falling all the way to $11 at its lows in May of 2023. Even though recovered from those levels, it took a long time for Upstart to get its group back. By late June of this year, it was still trading at just $23 and change barely up from its low its late 2020 to 2020 IPO price. In the last few months though, it has caught fire, climbing to the mid-70s including a 45% gain just since the election. I bring this up because earlier this week we saw two different analysts take drastically different positions on upstart. On Monday, JP Morgan downgraded the stock from neutral to sell, sell, sell, sell, the equivalent of a hold to sell even as they raised the price target quizzically from 45, 57. Then on Tuesday, Redburn Atlantic upgraded upstart from neutral to buy House of Pleasure while nearly tripling the price target taking from 37 to $95. Clearly the JP Morgan analysts are saying that the funds basically over here while the Redburn thinks we're just getting started. Who's right? I love these analysts face off situations because they have a way of distilling the best arguments for and against a stock and that allows us to get to the crux of the issue. And by the way, if you're, if you own it, it gives you a lot more staying power. You'll feel a lot better and if you don't, okay, we make your decision. Why don't we start with more negative view though from JP Morgan? This was actually part of a broader sector note is adjusting ratings for the nine stocks in the analyst and analyst Reginald Smith's fintech coverage universe. The JP Morgan analysts noted that the aggregate market cap of these nine fintech stocks had increased by $67 billion year to date, with essentially all that value creation coming after the Fed's first rate cut in mid September. While lower rates are definitely good for many of these companies, the analysts don't believe they're that good. The JP Morgan team didn't come out against the whole group though. They like Shopify, the E Commerce Enabler and Affirm, which does buy now, pay later. I couldn't agree more. You know, I think both companies are terrific, but for upstart specifically, JP Morgan can no longer count as the stock's valuation. They argue that the last time the stock was in the high 70s it was doing $13 billion in annualized loan origination volume, eight times its current run rate. And it's true, abstract financials are much, much worse than they were three or four years ago. Specifically, the company has much less revenue these days. They're expected to bring in 600 million this year versus 849 million in 2021. Upstarts currently unprofitable to where it was pretty money back in 2020. 1. That's because people were much more interested in getting loans Upstart back in the days when interest rates were super low. On the other hand, Upstart was a $40 stock at its peak in late 2021, but it's merely a 74 hour stock now, so it certainly reflects a fair amount of deterioration. And in the spirit of fairness, we should note the consensus expectations for 2025 and 26 are much more bullish than Upstart's current numbers, including a return to profitability next year after losses in the last two years. As far as I'm concerned, you should be basing your stock picks on what's expected for 2025 and 2026 rather than what's expected for 2024, which is over less than four weeks. But JP is not wrong that at the moment this company's a heck of a lot worse than it used to be. Then what's the bull case for Upstart? From Redburn at Analyst Simon Clinch has got some interesting ideas here. In a convenient little summary right at the top of the note, he explains that upstarts now had two consecutive quarters of positive earning surprises with encouraging guidance to boot. Following the most recent earnings report about a month ago, we sees, quote, a clear positive inflection in fundamentals, end quote, which in his words quote driven almost entirely by the company's latest AI innovations Echo AI. Beyond that, Redbird Atlantic believes that there's still upside potential from falling U.S. interest rates, which makes sense to me. Basically the argument is that the worst is behind upstart at this point as long as the Fed keeps cutting rates. That's unquestionably true. But then the Red Burn analyst said he believes upstart can get to $250 in the next five years. Now that would represent a 240% gain from here. Perhaps not wanting to sound unreasonable, he merely raises price target from $37 to $95. Now the 30 plus page upgrade from Redbird Atlantic goes into much more detail than that, giving context for the recent better than expected results, offering detail on upstarts new technology, also getting into some of the new growth opportunities in spaces like auto loans and home equity lines of credit. The analyst also argues that upstarts price journeys multiple should expand as the company goes quote from fin to tech. That's super funny. I'm laughing on the inside, I swear. So where do I come down on the upstart situation? Look, I recognize that things do look better for the company today than they were then. They have really for the most of the past three years. But call me skeptical about the business, especially now. The stocks already move so much. It was shocking how quickly Upstart's business fell apart when the Fed started tightening 2022. Much of the bullishness here comes down to the fact that the Fed is our friend again. But I think Wall street get a little ahead of itself by expecting substantial number of rate cuts which I don't think are going to happen. Economy is just too strong to merit that. If it doesn't happen, I worry Upstart will struggle to make those numbers more broadly. I'm still not really totally convinced that Upstart's lending technology is all that different from what a banks using traditional FICO scores can do. By the way, I like the stock fico but at the end of the day the real problem here is we have no idea how to value the stock. Wall street expects Upstart to earn just over $1 per share in 2026. So the stock's basically trading at nearly 70 times an out year number that I don't have a lot of conviction in. Plus as long as Upstart retains an interest in the loans it originates, it deserves to trade like more of a financial and less of a tech stock. Here's the bottom line. While I'm truly happy for the upstart bulls, I really am, I'm not ready to join their camp yet. Especially considering how much the stock has already run. Might be worth circling back on a big sell off. But you know what? I prefer Shopify or Affirm over Upstart. No matter what the Fed does, net money is back after the firm.

[CNBC]

Coming up, Kramer takes your calls and the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire Lightning round next.

[Jim Cramer]

It is time it's over the lightning round question. We're after gold. Romney saved the talk telling about the licenses. I don't know the course talks. I do. I must have appeared to graphics but you played us out. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Skedaddy Time for the lightning round. Cravers. Right. Why don't we start with Sean in Ohio. Sean on Jim, first of all, love.

[Caller]

The show and thanks for all the hard work you and your team put.

[Jim Cramer]

Into this team puts a lot of hard work and we come in early, we stay late. How can I help?

[Caller]

All right Jim, so I was looking for a non chip maker AI infrastructure position, you know, data centers.

[Jim Cramer]

Sure, I get you, I get you.

[Caller]

And I came across a company called verte holdings, symbol Dr.

[Jim Cramer]

Cheese. Here's the problem. You just came across it. Others have come across it long before we've had them on. I know the company really, really well and it's up like 10 times now. But here's what matters. If you buy some and then let it come in. You know what? I'm fine. I just don't want you to buy it all at this level cuz it is very high. Let's go to Stephen in Rhode Island. Stephen. Hey.

[Caller]

Jim Kramer, the professor.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, thank you. Time calling. All right. First time calling.

[Caller]

Long time listener.

[Jim Cramer]

Very good. Thank you. And what I want to say thank.

[Caller]

You to your crew because they're the best.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah.

[Caller]

And I want Mike stock is sound hound.

[Jim Cramer]

I oh my. It finally happened. Ben Stodo and I, he's our chief scientist, also researcher, we realized, holy cow, it finally broke out. I thought it never would. And all I can tell you is once they go parabolic like this, you usually get a couple more days of parabola. But then please, ka ching, ka ching. I could not believe that it finally happened. I knew it had to happen, but it finally happened. Let's go to Reese in Bezel Mania. Reese.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim, my ticker is hood H.

[Jim Cramer]

O O D. All right, this is what I call. This is what I call an up stock. All right, everyone's decided that this is the fintech one to buy. They've come on. They've been Hollywood promotional. It did an island reversal today, which I typically don't like. I think it's head to 35. We can revisit it there. Let's go to Patrick in California.

[Caller]

Patrick, Mr. Kramer, thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course. Thank you.

[Caller]

Hey, my question today is about Limbaugh Holdings.

[Jim Cramer]

All right. Now this isn't H Vac. This is one We've been getting a lot of these infrastructure places. No problem with that. But if you're going to go there, I insist on you going into train or carrier along with this. If you can own this. This is the spec. I like the others because they're not spec. How about we go to Glenn in California? Glenn.

[Caller]

Hey, Jen. Thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course.

[Caller]

I just want to let you know that I've been a very happy member of the club since day one.

[Jim Cramer]

Yes.

[Caller]

I also want to let you know that because of you, I made my first purchase of Nvidia back in August of 2017.

[Jim Cramer]

Well played. Well played. We made a lot of money together then. Thank you so much, really.

[Caller]

But thank you for realizing the genius of Jensen Wong and bringing the company, to our attention.

[Jim Cramer]

It'S all on Jensen. He's a remarkable man. Thank you. Go ahead.

[Caller]

I want to ask you about the future of Skyworks Solutions. And if it's okay, I also want to ask you about Disney. Why is Disney.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, Disney. I was talking all day about that. I think it's ridiculous that someone put out $120 target with a stock of 116. That's a buy. Skyworks is much, much tougher. Liam Griffin is an amazing CEO. I think you may have to suffer through one quarter or even two quarters before you get a turn there. It is going to take that long. Why don't we go to Trey in Texas? Trey.

[Caller]

Jim, as soon as you walk into my office, you see a picture of my wife and I on our wedding day serving as a constant reminder of just how lucky I am to own a Zania tuxedo. I mean, I.

[Jim Cramer]

Look to me and your wife. Okay, I get that. I'm a clothes horse myself. Go ahead.

[Caller]

I look like Bruce Wayne when I put this bad boy on. Welcome to Wayne Enterprises. My question is, do I end up with Batman money if I load the boat on Zania stock here?

[Jim Cramer]

You know, I have avoided Zegna stock pretty specifically because I did not really understand it. But I noticed his bottom. That's not enough. I'm going to have to do a full workup on Zegna in part because I'm a Brioni guy. Go to Joe in New Jersey. Joe.

[Caller]

Hello, Mr. Kramer.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you, Joe. How you been? Of course, I've been pretty good.

[Caller]

Doing some Christmas shopping. And I just want to know, with.

[Jim Cramer]

A fine line of apparel and all that I buy, is Ralph Lauren a buy up here at these. Okay. I have been on ever since Patrice Levay came in. I have just thought this was one unbelievable situation. And I'm doubling down right now. I think it goes higher. I like RL. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[CNBC]

The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.

[Jim Cramer]

The blurring of traditional investments with any other attempts to make money has started to get a little ridiculous, I think. What else can I say when I hear that Robinhood is considering a move into sports betting? Yes, it could take the form of event contracts like the ones Robinhood put out there before during the election. You may dismiss it, but the news was definitive enough to momentarily knock down the chairs of some actual gambling companies, like the DraftKings flutter of Pen Entertainment, which is behind the ESPN bet. That's a statement of intent. If there ever were one first. As I said at the top of the show, I'm fine with alternative investments like crypto as long as they're part of a diversified portfolio. Look, if you insist, although I'm certainly against it, you can make daily fantasy football best as part of a portfolio for all I care. I heard some guy on our air today who looked pretty sane talk about experimenting with some meme coins over the holidays. And I'm sure people listen and said fine, good idea. Me? I was thinking more about buying a dividend aristocrat. Oh, I forgot. Just give me some dogecoin. But let's step back for a second. We've been writing cautionary pieces all week about the pearls of being cocky when buying expensive stocks. About the ultimate foolhardiness of owning nothing but bitcoin or the building of a high risk portfolio filled with the stocks of companies that lose money. I don't want you to buy stocks when the market's overbought, which is why we keep pounding that into the heads of CBC Investing Club members. Perhaps to the point of ludicrous overkill. You know why I'm a hardliner on this stuff though? Because anything and everything can go down. Like many of the great stocks that went down today. I keep stressing this point because while it's all seems so easy to own winners and stick with them, in retrospect it wouldn't feel so easy if these things were going down too. We've experienced an unprecedented run in pretty much everything, and I do mean everything. You might think now that you're a brilliant investor in whatever the heck you invested in and you probably feel rich, at least on paper. But let me throw in something else that you need to consider for whatever asset you think you have profits in, whatever non fungible token, whatever Solana, whatever Joby, whatever red or white chip stock you're up huge on, you most emphatically do not actually have a profit until you sell something right now. Sounds like a horrendous sound, right? Jim Cramer hitting the cash register. But like some old codgers scolding me and making me poorer than I need to be, he's keeping me in my mythical change of poverty. I say that you need to imagine a world where assets not only go up, but occasionally they go down. Imagine a world where the bank doesn't take former profits that are now losses. I remember speaking about some stocks that proceeded double and even triple back at the turn of the century. Lots of people listen, but they either didn't hear me when I said you had to get out now in mid March or 20th of 2000 or they chose not to. Listen. If you didn't sell the.com at that point, you know what, you actually lost your shirt and you've been up huge. As my late mother in law always said it was all fun and games until somebody got hurt. So go hug your kids over the holidays. Deck the halls with bowels of holly. Don't forget to buy some meme stocks and maybe even put some out for Santa when he comes down that chimney to give you gifts. He'll like them a lot more than the plate of cookies you've been putting out for him. And as long as he rings the register on his part of his position, he too can let the rest ride. Like I said, as always, bull market Summer. I promise I'd buy just for you right here on Mad Money. I'm Jim Kramer and I'll see you tomorrow.

[American Express]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer you ever meet.

[Merrill Lynch]

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