Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 1/31/25

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer - Episode Summary (February 1, 2025)

Host: Jim Cramer
Produced by: CNBC
Release Date: February 1, 2025

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1. Market Overview and Initial Insights (00:00 - 13:10)

Jim Cramer opens the episode by highlighting the dual nature of the trading day. The first session saw positive momentum with Apple surpassing earnings expectations and video stocks gaining traction. However, the second session was overshadowed by unexpected tariff announcements:

• Tariff News: At 3:46 PM, the White House imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, leading to a significant market downturn.

  “Sell, sell, sell, sell.” ([07:15])

  The Dow plunged by 337 points (−5.5%), and the Nasdaq fell by 8.0%, exacerbating investor concerns. President Trump later commented that he wasn't worried about the market's reaction, a stark contrast to Cramer's outlook.

• Looking Ahead: Cramer outlines the upcoming week's focus, including potential fallout from tariffs and key earnings reports.

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2. Stock Highlights and Recommendations (13:10 - 26:25)

Cramer delves into several companies poised for significant movements in the coming week:

• Palantir Technologies:

  Described as a "Gamestop with the brain," Palantir is expected to reach $100.

  “I call it Gamestop with the brain.” ([04:50])

• PayPal and Spotify:

  • PayPal: Under new leadership by Alex Kriss, anticipated to return to robust growth.

    “I believe Chris can restore the growth rate and the luster.” ([05:20])

  • Spotify: Positioned as a strong subscription-based business akin to Netflix and Amazon.

• Pharmaceutical Giants – Merck and Pfizer:

  • Merck: Focused on revolutionary cancer treatments with expected good numbers, though recent acquisitions bring additional considerations.

  • Pfizer: Recent acquisition of C Gen raises questions about breakout anti-cancer drugs to justify the $43 billion deal.

• Packaged Food Stocks – PepsiCo:

  Despite challenges from new weight loss drugs and inflationary pressures in supermarkets, PepsiCo offers a 3.6% yield, making it a potential candidate for investors seeking yield.

• Alphabet (Google):

  Awaiting a report to determine if the search business is being cannibalized by Gemini AI. Strong performance in YouTube and potential growth in Google's cloud infrastructure could drive the stock higher.

  “If [Google's cloud] is strong, the stock will fly.” ([06:45])

• AMD:

  Speculation around AMD’s competitive edge as AI firms optimize computing power, making AMD's GPUs more attractive compared to Nvidia's offerings.

• Chipotle and Restaurant Chains:

  Chipotle emerges as a premier growth stock with stable leadership and potential for significant upward movement.

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3. Insider Buying and Stock Movements (26:25 - 39:04)

Cramer emphasizes the importance of insider buying as a bullish indicator, citing recent examples:

• Restoration Hardware (RH):

  • CEO's Insider Purchase: CEO Gary Friedman bought $10 million worth of RH shares ([26:25]).

    “Insiders only buy for one reason. That’s because they think the stock’s going up.” ([28:15])

  • Stock Performance: RH has nearly doubled since June, underscoring the positive impact of insider confidence despite initial skepticism from analysts like Goldman Sachs.

  • Historical Context: Cramer notes that RH’s significant buybacks and recent insider buying have been pivotal in the stock’s resurgence.

    “RH has made a huge move ever since Gary Friedman did that insider buying back in June.” ([29:02])

• Marvell Technology:

  • CEO's Purchase: Matt Murphy acquired 13,000 shares, increasing his stake by over 6% ([40:14]).

    “Insiders buying because they think the stock's going up.” ([28:39])

  • Stock Surge: Marvell’s stock soared from $70 in September to over $113, driven by strong quarter results and positive guidance.

Cramer advises investors to pay close attention to insider activity as a potential indicator for future stock performance.

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4. Interview with Otis Worldwide CEO Judy Marks (32:21 - 38:59)

Jim Cramer interviews Judy Marks, Chair, President, and CEO of Otis Worldwide, the leading manufacturer of elevators and escalators.

• Financial Performance:

  • Record Cash Flow: Achieved $1.6 billion in cash flow by focusing on service efficiency and reducing net working capital.

    “Service 90% of our profits. We were up 7% in revenue for the year in service.” ([32:42])

  • Modernization Business: Significant growth in modernization with 18% increase in orders and revenue, targeting high single-digit growth in 2025.

• Impact of Tariffs:

  Otis has strategically shifted its manufacturing footprint to mitigate tariffs, relocating production to Florence, South Carolina, ensuring minimal impact from recent tariff implementations.

  “Tariffs on the equipment side should be very, very de minimis for us.” ([35:03])

• Commercial Real Estate Trends:

  Despite concerns over a real estate crisis, Otis reports steady demand driven by residential conversions and the necessity for modern, reliable elevator systems.

  “We expect America new equipment to be up low single digit and the service business and modernization to grow significantly.” ([36:40])

Cramer commends Marks on navigating challenging economic conditions and maintaining robust growth through strategic pivots.

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5. Lightning Round Highlights (39:18 - 43:02)

In the Lightning Round, Cramer rapidly addresses investor questions and provides quick stock tips:

• Western Digital:

  Recommended as a "money side up" due to numerous upgrades despite recent stock splits.

  “I'm calling that one money side up.” ([41:34])

• Walmart (WMT):

  Acknowledged as an oversight in the trust portfolio but recognized as a strong investment option.

  “Walmart is amazing. ... The next time you see insiders buying up shares...” ([42:45])

• Adobe:

  Addressed concerns over Adobe's significant decline but maintains a positive outlook based on strong cash generation.

  “It generates too much cash. I can't sell with 21 times earnings.” ([42:40])

Cramer encourages listeners to consider insider buying as a signal for potential investment opportunities.

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6. Deep Seek Debate and Nvidia Analysis (43:20 - 47:57)

Cramer delves into the controversial Deep Seek report challenging Nvidia’s dominance in AI chip manufacturing:

• Deep Seek’s Claim:

  A Chinese firm, Deep Seek, alleges it can achieve similar AI performance using Nvidia’s cheaper, lower-end chips, potentially reducing the need for Nvidia’s high-priced GPUs.

  “Deep Seek claims it only spent $6 million and got something almost as good, if not better, AI for the masses.” ([43:26])

• Market Impact:

  The revelation led to a sharp decline in Nvidia's stock as investors fear decreased demand for expensive GPUs.

• Counterarguments:

  • Credibility Concerns: Cramer references a Semiannals analysis questioning Deep Seek’s claims, suggesting the $6 million figure might be misleading with actual hardware spending potentially exceeding $1.6 billion.

  • Industry Validation: High-profile CEOs like Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Larry Ellison continue to invest heavily in Nvidia’s chips, indicating strong market trust.

    “We learned... are all paying full price for the chips from Nvidia.” ([46:20])

• Analogy: Cramer compares the situation to using a less efficient juicer, questioning the practicality and economic sense behind Deep Seek’s claims.

  “It’s like a brand new juicer that can get 10 glasses of OJ out of the same one.” ([44:10])

• Conclusion: Cramer remains skeptical of Deep Seek’s impact on Nvidia, suggesting the challenges faced by Deep Seek may be part of a broader attempt to undermine Nvidia’s market position without substantial evidence.

  “Maybe it’s not so great to be the king after all.” ([47:57])

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7. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts (47:57 - 49:00)

Cramer wraps up the episode by reinforcing the importance of due diligence and staying informed amidst market volatility. He hints at future segments, including his upcoming podcast "Smartless Presents Clueless, a Bite", promising engaging content for listeners.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Jim Cramer on Market Reaction to Tariffs:

  “Sell, sell, sell, sell.” ([07:15])

• On Palantir Being a Growth Stock:

  “I call it Gamestop with the brain.” ([04:50])

• On PayPal’s Growth Potential:

  “I believe Chris can restore the growth rate and the luster.” ([05:20])

• On AMD’s Competitive Edge:

  “AMD's cheaper GPUs suddenly look a lot more attractive versus Nvidia's best of breed chips.” ([06:30])

• On Restoration Hardware’s Insider Buying:

  “Insiders only buy for one reason. That’s because they think the stock’s going up.” ([28:15])

• During Otis CEO Interview on Modernization Growth:

  “Modernization is really important to have amenities and to have a fast, safe, esthetically pleasing, capable elevator in your building.” ([34:40])

• On NVIDIA and Deep Seek's Impact:

  “That's how it goes in this business when you're investing in a comeback story.” ([28:15])

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Conclusion

This episode of Mad Money provided a comprehensive overview of current market dynamics, insightful stock analysis, and strategic investment advice. Jim Cramer emphasized the significance of insider buying, highlighted key growth stocks, and critically examined industry developments affecting major players like Nvidia. The interview with Otis Worldwide offered a deep dive into successful business pivots amid economic challenges. Overall, the episode serves as a valuable resource for investors looking to navigate the complexities of the stock market with informed strategies.

Transcript

[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple, to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to kramerica Friends. I'm just trying to make a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to educate. So call me at 1-873-CBC-TOTCHEM Mitchell Kramer we had two sessions today. The first one was a great where Apple was soaring off its better than expected quarter and video stock was fighting its way higher and anything tech taken up with them. But then we had the second session dominated by anticipation of the White House slapping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China. Sure enough, at 3:46pm we got 25% tariffs from Mexico and Canada, 10% tariffs from China. And the market which had been sagging, just slumped into the closing bell. Sell, sell, sell, sell. Yet that second session held sway with the Dow sinking 337 points as we losing.5%. Nasdaq declined point to 8%. Oh, and adding insult to injury, by the way, President Trump later came out and said he was, quote, not concerned about the market's reaction. I wish I had that luxury. We have a lot to cover. So let's go right to the game plan for next week. All right? The fireworks start on Monday. Well, of course we'll have to worry about the fallout, right of the tab, the tariffs. But Palantir's reporting after the close. Now Palantir is a really odd duck, so we're going to spend a second on it. Data driven consultant that helps everyone from packaged goods companies to the Pentagon to get more out of the resources. Right now they're focused on fixing the military procurement system. We give way too much business to a handful of defense contractors and it jacks up the price of all the hardware we we the taxpayers pay for. Now Palantir's voluble, volatile, unabashed CEO Alex Karp is a messianic figure to some in a Pied Piper. Others he caters to his retail investor base and the stocks a levitator. I call it Gamestop with the brain. I've been saying it's going to 100 ever since it was in the 50s. Now it's at 82 shows. No sign of letting up. Mark my words, $100 robust. Tuesday's jam packed. All right. Now we start the morning with PayPal and Spotify, both of which could have terrific numbers. PayPal is now being captained by Alex Kriss. I think he's returning the company to a solid growth mode. Now people used to be the king of digital mobile payments at one point. Then it fell in hard times as it frantically tried to play catch up to the buy now, pay later crowd. I believe Chris can restore the growth rate and the luster because PayPal serves as the digital wallet. That often is the first interaction that young people have with the payment system. Now Spotify is a classic beat race story that tends to blow away the estimates. I love these subscription businesses. You know that. Think Netflix, Amazon because of prime. And Spotify is always in the conversation. We also hear from two huge drug companies, Merck and Pfizer. Merck, despite some excellent acquisitions, is still about key, true to this revolutionary cancer treatment that just keeps working against so many different varieties of disease. I bet the numbers will be good, but there are other issues. I also want to get more of a readout on the drugs that Merck picked up in its recent wave of acquisitions. One for pulmonary arterial hypertension and a whole immunology franchise. Pfizer bought C gen, the old Seattle genetics at the end of 2023. We still haven't seen the breakout anti cancer drugs that would justify the deal's $43 billion price tag. Now maybe we'll hear something good this quarter. If so, the stock could soar. Very little downside at these low levels. The packaged food stocks have been dogs dogs ever since the GOP Dash 1 drugs burst on the scene, especially PepsiCo, one of my faves with its soft drink and snacks businesses. I think the new Weight loss drugs make it hard for the great this great company to play offense hasn't helped that the supermarket has become an inflation battleground. But PepsiCo yields 3.6%. You never know when you can catch a total rotation into this beaten down group. Then again, if you want yield this market, I'd much rather own Merck or Pfizer. After the close Alphabet reports and we want to find out if the search business is being cannibalized by its Gemini AI offering. I think YouTube is just on fire and that covers up any weakness. The new CFO and that Ashkenazi you might remember she was at Eli Lilly. She tells a terrific story. We'll be listening for anything about the growth of Google's cloud infrastructure business. If it is strong, the stock will fly. AMD has been quiet of late. I wonder if the chip maker has landed some big wins because in the wake of this deep seek affair which proved AI outfits can do more with less computing power, AMD's cheaper GPUs suddenly look a lot more attractive versus Nvidia's best of breed chips. All right, that's my thesis. Now let's see if it's true. Now we've been focused on a handful of great restaurant chains lately, especially the incredible rally in Brinker, which you know is Chili's. The premier growth stock in the group though has always been Chipotle. But somehow it's been lost in the shuffle here. Now maybe this is a chance to get back in before the next big move higher. Buying Chipotle and wages is generally the right call, like forever. Of course it has a new CEO, Scott Boatwright, but he's an old Chipotle hand. And the rest of the crew is intact, including friend of the show Jack Hartung, former cfo, now president and chief strategy officer. It might be time to start a position. Wednesday we get results from Walt Disney. Recent weather events could bring noise as hurricanes impacted Disney World last quarter. L A wildfires lucky impacted the outlook for Disneyland this quarter. But I think everything else is hitting on all cylinders including linear TV stocks put in put in its recent weakness behind it. This is historically cheaper which is why we've been telling members of the investing club to buy it. Novo Nordisk okay, now this is really interesting. See this is the drug company behind Ozempic. They report. Now maybe they can give us clarity about how well these drugs are doing because Eli Lilly has already announced soft fourth quarter sales but expects a very good 2025. We heard them when we were out in San Francisco I'd like to do the same thing. Novo Nordisk if you do get good news from Novo Norris, get this, you might want to buy some Eli Lilly before it reports on Thursday. At the close Wednesday we hear from Ford Motor. Ford's been a disappointment largely because of warranty costs, things that went wrong. But with long term interest rates high and likely going higher, their sales could be stalling. The stock's been awful so there's limited downside at these levels. I question the upside Thursday, more drugs. Yes, this is a tough drug week or aforementioned Eli Lilly reports while CEO David Ricks announced here on CNBC that 2025 will be a good year. We got to get some more details before we plow in. I remain steadfast. We have a big position for the trust. Next, another trust holding the Myers. They got a whole series of great drugs. But the one people are watching very closely is co benfi. That's the first two classes. Schizophrenia medications in 30 years. Far fewer side effects than the current standard of care. If they're really. You want to call that a standard of care, I bet CEO Chris Borner will give us some an early read of on prescriptions written this year. Now this could be a nice upside and I've got to tell you with that yield, it's one of my faves at the close Amazon portion. Although I predict terrific numbers, they might not be as terrific as they have to be to justify the stock's incredible recent run. We are for the Chapel Trust too. This is like our Chapel Trust week forever. It's a bonanza. But you may want to wait until after the quarter do any buying. That's not being. I'm not being negative. I'm just saying I don't want you after this big run to come in and then there'll be this give up because people are just taking profits. That's when you want to buy. Finally on Friday, we get the Labor Department's non farm payroll. Right now the Fed's concerned that the economy might be running too hot. If we get robust job growth with higher wages, then I doubt we'll see any rate hikes in the first half of the year. If you're rooting for a higher stock market, what do you really want to see? You want to so so employment report enough to keep rate cuts on the table, but not so much as to hurt corporations quarterly earnings. Bottom line, when you get a week that's packed with important earnings reports and the monthly employment report plus the tariff news, you're usually better off sitting on your hands because there's just too much data for any individual to process, even, even for an AI powered individual, by the way. Oh, let's just throw in this deep sea stuff which has made tech too maddening to buy or sell and too, let's say, boring. So if in doubt, do nothing. I want to go to my home state. I want to go to Sam in Pennsylvania. Sam.

[Caller]

Jim, how are you doing?

[Jim Cramer]

I'm all right. How are you, Sam?

[Caller]

I'm good. I got an interesting company for that is the Fair Isaac & Co. Companies trading at $45 billion, which seems fairly well cheap for the company. That is one of the most important when it comes to consumer lending. Companies outpaced the S and P for the last couple of years. Five year return of 365%. So I'm curious what you think about FICO in this age of AI where consumer lending and all this data.

[Jim Cramer]

I got to tell you, we love fico. We did a lot of work on this company. We came back and then we had Will Lansing on. I got to speak to Will. Someone put me on the phone with him. I was out at a really beautiful hotel in Montauk and we were just talking to the guy. The guy is Dino Mike. He is a serious practitioner of the game. Michael and Michael in Tennessee. Michael.

[Caller]

Mr. Kramer, how about those Tennessee volunteers?

[Jim Cramer]

The balls.

[Caller]

My question is, with the increasing demand for copper driven by the energy transition and electrification trends, do you see copper mining stocks as undervalued plays right now?

[Jim Cramer]

No, I do not. I keep thinking about Simone Janikowski when she came on the show. Private company is going to use glass. I'm so afraid that one day I wake up and it's going to be glass everywhere in the data centers. And we'll say why didn't Cramer say that copper was. What was with Kramer? I mean, what was Kramer doing? And the answer is he was thinking about glass. Okay. Anyway, next week is jam packed with earnings and economic data and of course SeatGeek is still going to be on. I got some more good tickets from that deep seat. We have Money. Tonight is IBM's impressive Quarter A catalyst for more growth ahead. I'm looking at what sparked the stocks run. Then I'm trying to tracking the insider buying from the CEOs of RH and Marvel Technologies. Don't miss my take on what these moves could have been foreshadowing. Plus, after Otis reported weakness back in quarter, I got a top race to see why is that stock ever go dead. So I got that is press up and make sure you have that card. You know you have to do that. I hate that. You got to show it on it and then it goes higher and if you know it doesn't, it's a stable Kramer.

[Mad Money Announcer]

Don'T miss a second of Mad Money. Follow imkramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer Madmentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com the 150 billion dollar pet industry is booming as people absolutely love their dogs. If you're looking for a solid investment, Dogtopia is the name to know. With 300 locations across North America, it's the largest, leading and fastest growing pet franchise offering a recurring revenue membership model. Dogtopia offers safe open play, dog daycare, boarding and spa services. Want a recession resistant franchise? Check out Dogtopia because every dog and dog parent deserve it. Go to dogtopia.com to learn more.

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[Jim Cramer]

We're halfway through the craziest two weeks of earnings season. This week you Heard from nearly a fifth of the companies the S&P 500 next week we hear from roughly a quarter throw in the deep seek induced a sell off, some craziness in Washington and several extremely high profile quarters. And it's almost impossible to keep up with everything. And that's why I want to focus on some tremendous quarters that might have gotten lost in the shuffle. And I'm going to start with IBM, the legacy tech colossus that found new life and also new growth under CEO Arvind Krishna. After IBM reported great numbers on Wednesday night, the stock shot up 13%. And all I can tell you is I told you so. Early last year I explained that IBM stood to be a major winner from artificial intelligence through Kramer Fave Red Hat which is used by developers to create AI applications through its new Watson X platform that allows enterprises to create, train and deploy custom AI models as well as consulting business which can hold customers hands, show them how to use artificial intelligence. Ultimately the stock finished 2024 up more than 34%. Although it was an open question will keep keep climbing after that kind of move. But on Wednesday night we got the answer. IBM reported in line revenues with 1% growth. It doesn't sound like much, but now they've had six straight quarters of positive sales growth. That matters given that IBM spent roughly a decade with no growth or negative growth. If you can have such a thing as negative growth that Translated into a 14 cent earnings beat off a dollar a $3.78 basis. Not to mention much better than expected free cash flow. And that's a statistic that many use to measure the success of this enterprise. The quarter isn't the reason the stock caught fire. Wall street got really excited about the full year forecast for 2025. IBM's guidance is simple. They gave you revenue growth and cash flow targets and both of those were frankly excellent. First, they expect revenue growth to accelerate slightly in 2025. Company projects full year constant currency revenue growth of at least 5%. Not only is big glowing, but that growth is accelerating even if it's happening off a very low base. Doesn't matter. Accelerating revenue growth is what we want. As for free cash flow, IBM says It can reach 13.5 billion this year and it's really looking for over 13 billion and that's 6% growth versus last year. I think that's what sent the stock up 13% yesterday. Sent it to a new all time high. Now when you look at IBM's three segments infrastructure, okay, unimpressive, down 8% year over year, that's all right. Consulting was okay, down 2%. But software, the largest segment, accounting for 43% of total revenues last year, is on fire. It's up 10% in the fourth quarter and that's the division I like the most. Software got stronger throughout the course of the year with revenue growth accelerating every single quarter. Oh, let me Repeat this again. IBM, once known as an old metal bender, is now 43% software. I think that could go to 50% before you know. Within the software business, the standouts are Red Hat which was up 16% year over year, and automation up 15%. In terms of specific products. Management called out that Watson X and Red Hat families of products, both of which have incredibly strong tailwinds from, yes, AI. Speaking of AI, CEO Arvin Christer said, quote, we continue to gain momentum with our Gen AI book of business growing to over $5 billion. Inception to date up by about 2 billion correct quarter over quarter, end quote. That is huge. He explained that quote, 1/5 of this business comes from software and the remaining 4/5 is consulting. And quote, Krishna touted the company's flexibility in assisting customers with AI, saying IBM's portfolio is tailored to meet the diverse needs of enterprise clients, enabling them to leverage a mix of models IBM's, their own open models from Hugging Face Meta and Mistrust. He also cited IBM's Granite models which are designed for specific purposes and are 90% more cost efficient than larger alternatives. That note on the Granite models cost efficiency was interesting given that so much of Wall street and Silicon Valley has been focused on the deep Deep seat news. This week when question was asked about Deep seek specifically on the conference call, he called it, quote, a point of validation. Explained that IBM has been saying for about a year that smaller models with faster training times and lower inferencing costs will be needed for enterprise to truly get value from AI. He got it right. This gets to a wider argument. IBM's exposure. The company's thinking holistically about how to make sure that its customers are actually benefiting whatever investments they make in artificial intelligence. See, that makes me think that this team has got some longevity for IBM because they can become an essential partner for companies looking to embrace AI for their business and the customers will keep coming back because they're not getting ripped off. Now I mentioned earlier that IBM spent most of last year rally, then the stock traded sideways into the end of 2024. One big reason it lost its mojo is that when the company reported last last quarter in October, management had some mixed commentary on their consulting business. While the consulting division technically missed expectations slightly in the fourth quarter, I'd say that it was better than feared after the downbeat commentary last quarter. More importantly, thanks to the aid tailwinds, management believes their consulting business can return to growth next year. Discussing the 2025 Outlook Straight Shuddy CFO Jim Carvin Kavanaugh explained explain quote in consulting the combination of our backlog levels, record signs in the fourth quarter and a book of business business in Jenny I support an acceleration in growth the low single digits end quote. Now it is worth noting next Tuesday IBM hosts an investor day meeting. Joe, it's the first since 2021 and this could potentially bring more positive news. Now I'm hoping we get a call for durable mid single digit growth going forward and potentially new buyback program. Given how strong the cash flow has gotten, that could boost IBM's earnings per share even further. So let's see what they have to say. But I am pretty I'm pretty sure it's going to be good. Now full disclosure, IBM's Price Earnings Multiple is higher than it's been in a long time. That worries people. After yesterday's gain, the stock now sells for nearly 24 times this year's earnings and just north of 22 times next year's numbers. A lot of us are used to low teen to even high single digit for this company, but I'd argue that the overall company's return to steady growth justifies a higher valuation than IBM was getting back on as a slowly melting ice cube of business. Plus, as the mostly recurring revenue software unit becomes a larger and larger part of the company's mix, you got to expect that the company's going to get a higher model because Wall street loves recurring revenue, particularly from software. Here's the bottom line. Even in a really busy week, IBM's results totally stood out. The company had solid numbers for the fourth quarter and more importantly, a very strong outlook for the full year because this is one of those less direct AI plays that isn't hurt by this deep sea news. Now why did the stock hit new highs this week? And by the way, I wouldn't be surprised if IBM's got a lot more room to run. You know what? It's a terrific tech story for turbulent times. Bad money is back after the break.

[Mad Money Announcer]

Coming up, what do Marvel Technology and the stock formerly known as Restoration Hardware have in common? Kramer helps solve the riddle.

[Jim Cramer]

Next.

[Mad Money Announcer]

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[Jim Cramer]

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs published a note on the specialty hard line segment. Really caught my eye. They reiterated their dim view on anything housing related. But they also decided to upgrade rh, the old restoration hardware from cell to line. The Goldman analyst said a bunch of reasons, new products, heavy marketing and improved supply chain bullish guidance. But really this was just purely an act of capitulation. See, Goldman had stuck RH on their Americas sell list and then the stock proceeded to gain 67% beating the S and P. So they finally threw in the towel and upgraded to a hold. Now I bring this up not to bash the guy, okay, because this was the third upgrade for RH in the past month. On January 13th, Morgan Stanley took it from equal weight to overweight. January 8 Barclays did the same thing. Wedbush also added the stock to the best ideas list in early January. People are really down on this company even though it's likely that their Hamptons house, well, probably brimming with RH hardware. And hey, can you blame them for throwing in the negative tail. RH has very quietly nearly doubled from its lows last June. Very hard to dislike a stock with that kind of performance. But the crazy thing about this run is it RH is the fact that it happened without a clear turn in the underlying business. The big rally began in earnest with a gap up after the company reported in September. And while these quarterly results were strong, RH also slashed its full year forecast at that time. The stock then had a positive initial reaction. The company's latest quarter in December. But that quarter included a big earnings miss. RH only rallied because the company re raised its full year forecast and issued optimistic guidance for the current quarter. But the whole time RH has been running, there's been no beat and race quarter to act as a Kind of all clear signal like you would get from so many other companies. And that's how it goes in this business when you're investing in a comeback story. You get the biggest gains by sticking your neck out before there's any actual turns, any evidence at all of a turnaround. And that's what happened here. However, at least in the case of rh, there was one crystal clear sign that the stock was ready to bottom in June. So on June 27, two weeks after the company reported particularly soft quarter that crushed the stock, RH disclosed that its visionary chairman and CEO Gary Friedman, had personally bought $10 million with the stock in the open market at an average price of 216 exchange. Yep, he hit us with a decent slug of insider buying. I'm calling it a cold shot. For certain that's separate from our age. His own corporate buyback, which was enormous. Back in 2023, they retired $1.25 billion worth of stock on top of 1 billion in 2022 for ratcheting that back to almost nothing in the first nine months of the of the 2024 fiscal year. Now, keep in mind, RH has a market capitalization of less than $8 billion, and that's even after a huge run, given that the stock's now well above $400. Those previous buybacks in the high 2 hundreds and low 3 hundreds, which many thought were foolish, are now looking pretty darn smart. But again, the buyback is neither here nor there. I'm talking about the insider buying side. CEO CEO Gary Friedman buying $10 million for the stock with his own money in his first open market purchase since September of 2018. Now, let's establish a couple of things. That $10 million purchase is nothing compared to Freeman's overall holdings. He bought about 46,000 shares. That brings his total stake to 3.35 million shares. Also, he did some big insider buy in. I'm sorry, did some big insider selling. In 2022, he unloaded nearly $1.5 billion with a stock. But let me tell you what really matters. As I said before, insiders sell for lots of reasons. Maybe they think the stock's headed lower, but maybe they need to raise some cash, buy a boat, private island. A lot of guys doing that. However, insiders only buy for one reason. That's because they think the stock's going higher. By the way, if you missed that open market purchase from Friedman, well, you had a chance to hear about his conviction in his company when he came on the show back in September. Now, the Stock was at 344 at the time. In that interview, he mentioned RH, his history of buybacks.

[Caller]

Since 2017. We bought back 3.75 billion of our stock and you know, history would prove.

[Jim Cramer]

That we're generally directionally right, you know.

[American Express Representative]

When we make bets of that size. And so, so are we excited?

[Jim Cramer]

We couldn't be more excited.

[Judy Marks]

Wow.

[Jim Cramer]

I mean, history certainly proven him right. Long story short, RH has made a huge move ever since Gary Freeman did that insider buying back in June. Now Wall street is scrambling to get behind this red hot stock. Now look, this is why you have to pay attention to insider buy. Which brings me to the next example. Oh man, was this. I did everything I could to shout this one from the rooftops. It involves Marvell Technology. Now back in October 15, chairman CEO Matt Murphy, frequent guest on the show, disclosed that he purchased just over $1 million worth of stock the previous day and that was at a price of 77. Changes went in the open market and bought it. Now this was a much smaller purchase than Freeman's, at least in dollar terms, but it represented a much larger increase in percentage terms. The 13,000 shares purchased by Murphy increased his overall stake in Marvel Tech by more than 6%. Sure enough that insider buying was a tell as Marvell stock rallied aggressively into the end of last year, climbing from just over $70 at the end of September to an all time high of $127 and change last week. And after a bit of a pullback this week on the deep seat news, just under 113 now is up today. Now most of these gains came in December when the stock gapped up 23% on Dec. 4 after Marvell reported a really amazing quarter with incredibly strong guidance for the next quarter. Management has some very positive things to say about the how their custom silicon is being snapped up to build a data centers. It's really taking off since then. Custom silicon is a way to be able to save money for these companies. That last quarter was where the narrative all came together from Marvell Management explained that the more cyclical portions of the business were finally at last turning. Those have been weighing them down. Real albatross and gave more detail than ever on the scale of the opportunity in response to stock called Fire. And all that was foreshadowed by Matt Murphy's relatively small, totally maybe symbolic, I don't know, a million bucks. Still a million bucks insider purchase in October. Here's the bottom line. Insiders again can sell for a host of reasons and I tend to Discount them. But I don't discount insider buying because they buy for only one reason. Because they think the stock's going up. Last year, Gary Freeman, the CEO of rh, Matt Murphy from Martin Vale Tech, made some small insider buys right before the stock soared into the stratosphere. So next time you see something happening similar to that, take a good hard look at the company in question because it just might be ready to roar. Arthur in California. Arthur.

[Caller]

Hey, Jimmy. Jim. Jim. How's it going? How about that?

[Jim Cramer]

I don't know. I have a little tariff action at the end of the day. I'm not trying to figure that out. You know, what is that about? Go ahead.

[Caller]

Big fan of your show. Even so, my middle son, he's a bigger fan of your great enthusiastic advice and all the press, and he enjoys watching the show with me all the time.

[Jim Cramer]

I am thrilled. You know, younger people, everything, everything. Thank you.

[Caller]

So here's my question. I took a little piece of bite out of this position, this stock, a couple of days ago and planning to take smaller bites out of it if it goes any lower. But this Stock is about 75% down from its all time highs. And that stock is Super Micro Computers.

[Jim Cramer]

You know, as you were talking, I started getting very interesting. I said, oh, down 75% from its high. That could be very good. Maybe it's a good company. But you just named a company that had accounting irregularities. And accounting irregularities in my book, always equal one thing, sell, sell, sell, and always will. That's what you have to do with that stock. Now, I want to go to Naveen in Pennsylvania. Naveen.

[Caller]

Hey, Jimmy. Call it Bucks County. Pennsy.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, man, were you close to me. You're probably right around the court. Go Eagles. You're probably right around the corner from me in Bucks County.

[Caller]

Yeah, yeah, I'm in Langhorne.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, not far. Not far from my. My box made it at the Eagles games. Terrific. What's going on?

[Caller]

Nice. So this company seems to do everything right, including E Commerce.

[Jim Cramer]

They're up like 35% over the last year.

[Caller]

WMT. And why don't we have it in the trust portfolio?

[Jim Cramer]

As an investing club member, Just an honest, great question. I've said I have talked about this with the Wal Mart people too. The answer is, I thought that if I had Costco and I had tj, I shouldn't have Wal Mart. And the answer is that was wrong. When you think of stocks going higher, you should break discipline a little and buy the stock. Walmart is amazing. And boy, do my kids and I love to shop there. Bargains. Hey, the clothing there, by the way, fantastic. All right, look, the next time you see insiders buying up shares like we saw in RH and Marvell, I want you to be thinking, take a hard look, okay? Because it may be the right thing to do. Buy much more made money at including my exclusive with elevator maker Otis after this week's fourth quarter report. Hey, then I'm going to break down this deep seek thing. You know, you're probably tired of hearing about it. I don't care. You got to hear my take then. Oil calls rapid fire in tonight's edition of the lightning round. So stay with Kramer. I want to do with the stock of Otis Worldwide, the number one maker of elevators and escalators on earth with a big service and repair business. On Wednesday morning, Otis reported slightly weaker than expected quarter, a full year forecast Tablite. But because this company is just such a steady operator, the stock only got dinged a little over a buck on the news. Plus, while this year looks like it's going to be challenging, Otis still put up 8% earnings growth last year despite a not so hot backdrop. So is that why the stock barely got hit in response is really holding in there? Let's check in with Judy Marx. She's the Chair, President, CEO of Otis Worldwide. Learn more. Ms. Marks, welcome back to Mad Money.

[Judy Marks]

Jim, great to be with you.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, so Judy, I got to tell you, I was worried because obviously we see that a lot of commercial construction has not grown. We've got a deflationary environment in China too. But you still managed to have the highest cash flow since the spin. How is that possible?

[Judy Marks]

Yeah, Jim, first and foremost, I want to thank our 72,000 colleagues across the globe for delivering for our customers, for the 2.4 billion people a day who touch our product and for our shareholders and each other. How it happened is it's all about service. Both in the fourth quarter and the full year, we had a stellar service year. Service 90% of our profits. We were up 7% in revenue for for the year in service. And our service portfolio grew by another hundred thousand elevators and escalators to 2.4 million. It helped us drive cash and that cash was a record for us. That 1.6 billion now that we generate in cash by driving down net working capital, focusing on collections, we took all 1.6 billion, gave back a billion through share repurchases and the rest through dividends. Every bit of it went to our shareholders.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, it's extraordinary and you basically, if you had told me that you could do these numbers with the amount of actual new equipment, equipment sales. I would say that it would be inconceivable. But you've obviously pivoted and pivoted well, because one of the things I see you're doing amazingly, the, the, the numbers for modernization are extraordinary. That's a pretty good business, isn't it?

[Judy Marks]

It's a business, it's just at its early stages. There's 22 million elevators in the world. 8 million of them are getting to that mod window 20 years and older. And that's just going to add every year. You know, we grew both our orders and our revenue almost 18% in modernization in the fourth quarter. We're excited going into 2025 with about a 13% backlog at constant currency. And it's going to grow from here. We said high single digits in terms of revenue in our guide. We hope to exceed that based on the backlog and just the continuing steady growth. And that growth is happening in every region of the world.

[Jim Cramer]

Now. I know a lot of people are worried about, about tariffs. We know that there was a kind of late afternoon tariff put on. I don't think the numbers were actually surprising, not even that dramatic. But at the same time, I would think that you're one of the businesses. You don't put a tariff on safety, there's no hope. You can't get out of it. Right. I mean, safety even in every country on earth can't be impacted by a tariff.

[Judy Marks]

Yeah, Jim. And listen, we have redesigned over the years not just our supply chain for resiliency like many have, but our manufacturing footprint for resiliency as well. Again, well over 60, 62% of our revenue is in our service business and that, that is growing every year with that high 90 plus percent profitability. But you know, we like most people in the 90s, we moved and put them a factory in Mexico. And what we did actually in 2012, we closed that Nogales factory. We decided we want our manufacturing to be closer to where we're selling here in North America and closer to where we're delivering and installing. We opened a factory in Florence, South Carolina, and it supports all of our north, North America business. And we left Mexico a little over a decade ago. So tariffs on the equipment side should be very, very de minimis for us. They were in 2018.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, now I remember when the plant was opened and there were a huge number of problems. That it was a shame too, because the problems made people feel like if you do Reassure. We don't know what we're doing in America. But those were completely resolved by the time you took over, weren't they?

[Judy Marks]

Yes, they were. And actually in 2024 we had hit our highest production level ever in Florence. So when people look at the US market, I mean our North America orders in third and fourth quarter were up 15% plus each. There is construction going on in North America. We've got the talented field professionals to do it. And we expect America new equipment to be up low single digit and the service business and modernization to grow significantly here right at home.

[Jim Cramer]

So tell me about what the commercial real estate market is. We've seen all the bank earnings turned out. It really wasn't so bad. In some places like New York, we have used conversion. Matter of fact, I always saw San Francisco to be trouble. Are you finding that the so called real estate, commercial real estate crisis isn't a crisis at all in this country?

[Judy Marks]

Well, I can't talk to the real estate investors, but what I can tell you is what we're seeing from the developers, from the general contractors, and from people who are now making investments versus class B real estate and other places that right now are getting renovated. Otis wins in all, all of those. Jim. Return to office, we get more wear and tear, we get more repair work on, on elevators. Residential multifamily was up fourth quarter for the first time in well over a year. And we continue to see kind of that two to eight story building, no matter what the use is, whether it's industrial, commercial or residential, continuing to be the powerhouse of our business. And then any of the buildings that are maybe not as fully fully loaded or fully inhabited, we were seeing residential conversions and we're also seeing people modernize because it's really important to have amenities and to have a fast, safe, esthetically pleasing, capable elevator in your building.

[Jim Cramer]

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but if you're a Canadian real estate company or Canadian office, somebody who's a manager of Canadian Canadian office tower that has Otis in it. Just because it's American, they can't just switch to some Canadian operator. That Canadian operator won't know how to handle it. Correct? Yeah.

[Judy Marks]

Listen, Jim, we are the, we founded this industry 171 years ago and we're still leading it. We when we service, we service as a local Otis company everywhere in the globe. Our equipment gets shipped everywhere and everyone thinks of us as local.

[Jim Cramer]

Wow. Well, look, congratulations to you. Everyone's so worried about so many different things evolving overseas. Maybe you're the answer if you want to stay and have a balanced portfolio of the United States and other countries around the world. Judy Marks, President, CEO and chair of Otis. Great job at a tough time. Good to see you.

[Judy Marks]

Thanks Jim. It's all about predictability.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, I guess so. Really is debunking. Back into the break.

[Mad Money Announcer]

Coming up, lightning doesn't just strike twice in Cramerica.

[Caller]

Booyah. Jimmy, chill.

[Indeed Representative]

Booyah, booyah, booyah.

[Judy Marks]

Thanks for taking my call.

[Mad Money Announcer]

It strikes every day. Kramer is back in a flash with your questions.

[Jim Cramer]

Next it is time to stop for the lightning round. Cricket. It's more rapid hoy. 10 minutes talking and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready?

[American Express Representative]

Ski dice.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm a lightning round. Crazy. I want to start with Lou in Pennsylvania. Lou.

[Caller]

Hi Jim. Thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Thanks for all the help people provide to the millions by now of investing your help. Thank you.

[Caller]

I'm calling by a company that's a.

[Jim Cramer]

British bank, large bank that's been involved.

[Caller]

In investment banking and other parts of banking in Europe and the US for many years is now pivoting away from investment banking in the uk, US and England to Asia, Middle east, especially China. HSBC is the company probably now.

[Jim Cramer]

It's good company. It is at its 52 week high. If I'm going to buy one of those that's a foreign bank, I'm going to recommend Banco Santander because I think that Anna Boutine is doing a great job. Get a little bit better, yield more upside Spain. Let's go to Fred in Illinois.

[Caller]

Fred, Jimmy Choo.

[Jim Cramer]

It sure was a tough day to buy a sweater anyhow. Very hard, very hard. In order to rise to Summit one must have Pulse.

[Caller]

Summit Therapeutics closed at 21:50. Pulse closed at 20:93.

[Jim Cramer]

Robert W. Dugan, you probably know him from sitting the company they had TCYC Pharmacy. That company is no, that company has no revenues. I, I don't know. And it, it has not made money. It's obviously just a very big spec. I, I, I can't, I can't go there. Let's go to Sal in bar. To Sal.

[Caller]

Hey, I need a little help. Mr. C. Dan.

[Jim Cramer]

You came to the right guy, my friend. What do you got?

[Caller]

I have a 10 point profit on this company. It has a nice balance sheet. They just did. The company just did a split though not a stock split. They broke it in two. But I don't know if it's the problematic 710 split like in bowling or should I just take my profit and split? The company is Western Digital.

[Jim Cramer]

I have read so many upgrades to Western Digital that have to believe the stock is way too cheap. I'm calling that one money side up up. All right, let's go. Let's go to Justin in New Jersey. Justin, New Jersey.

[Caller]

Justin. You said it.

[Jim Cramer]

Right. Hey, Jim.

[Caller]

Longtime fan, short time investor and maybe a club member soon. How's it going?

[Jim Cramer]

I want you to join a club. We've been having rocking good time. How can I help you?

[Caller]

Yeah, I would love to. Well, I'm in property management.

[Jim Cramer]

Right.

[Caller]

And I see a lot of companies using appfolio to online property management.

[Jim Cramer]

Right, right, right. It's actually a cheap stock. It's a cheap stock. It's a good one. I typically find enterprise software is too expensive. That one rocks. You're on to something. But you know that group. I now learn from you. You don't learn from me. I learned from you. Thank you very much. Let's go to Zach in Pennsylvania. Zach. Hey.

[Caller]

Jim Clark, Philadelphia.

[Jim Cramer]

How are you? Good. Go Burrs. Go Burrs.

[Caller]

Hey, calling about a company I own. Getting pretty concerned about companies down over 30% from its all time highs. A company would be Adobe.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm worried too. You know, Shanti and Ryan is so good. The product is like a Lamborghini versus the guys that it's up against. I don't think I want to sell the stock down here. It generates too much cash. I know that it seems like a tough stock to own. I can't sell with 21 times earnings. And that. Ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning round.

[Mad Money Announcer]

The Lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, the Deep Seek debate rages on. But with the long knives out for Nvidia, Kramer makes his call on the stock next.

[Jim Cramer]

Boyar.

[Caller]

Jim, your integrity makes you the booyah.

[Indeed Representative]

Saint of war Wall Street.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah, Jimmy chill. Booyah, Jimmy chill. Booyah, Jim. Quadruple. That's a lot of booyahs. Everyone's gunning for Nvidia now. And why not? It's the king of artificial intelligence. It can charge a fortune for its chips because they're the only game in town. To get the most out of companies need to buy tens of thousands of chips. Long live the king. This week, however, we learned that maybe, just maybe, we don't need to buy as many of those chips as we thought. A Chinese outfit called Deep Seek has purportedly figured out a way to get much more out of Nvidia's cheaper, lower end chips. Which makes you wonder, why should anybody buy the most expensive ones instead of spending hundreds of millions of dollars on hardware to build and train an AI model. Deep Sea claims it only spent 6 million and got something almost as good, if not better, AI for the masses. Now if you're like me, you found all this Deep Sea chatter unsettling. So let's analogize. Let's say we were talking about oranges and orange juice. That's a simple concept. Suppose you want to make orange juice with the most expensive juicer in the market, the Open Air juicer. It can make one glass of OJ from one orange with an Nvidia GPU being the orange in this analogy. But Deep Seek, well, that's like a brand new juicer that can get 10 glasses of OJ out of the same one in video orange. Now if that's the case, then you obviously don't need to buy as many oranges. You can cut your order by 910 and still get all the OJ you need. Yet instead of buying 10 Nvidia chips, you can buy one and use deep Sea allegedly to get the same amount of compute and intelligence. Yeah, I stuck at a critical adverb there, didn't I? Allegedly. So this declaration by Deep Sea rocked our world this week. We took it as gospel. A deep sea spawned by a Chinese hedge fund has ended in videos ability to charge high prices. And if that's the case, you have to expect that the company will cut prices because its customers won't need as many chips as they did before when demand was the same. If prices are indeed coming down, then so are the earnings estimates, which means Nvidia stock is too high and therefore must be sold. All very logical. So naturally the stock got pulverized. Made much worse by the way, that most stocks, because there's so many one day gamblers who like to play in video like it's a roulette wheel. I mean, it's incredible how much this stock is what we used to call football. But not everything that's logical is true. What if the Chinese hedge fund isn't giving us the full story? What if the reality is totally different? What if Deep Seek spent a lot more on its hardware than the $6 billion that they're report 40? What if they didn't get 10 glasses of OJ out of one orange, but actually just bought 10 oranges? And that's what an article in a known authority called Semiannalis said today. This publication, which has covered Deep Seq for longer than most people knew it existed, speculates that the $6 billion cost is highly misleading. They say deep Seats, real hardware spending all in could be more than $1.6 billion. I wonder if the PRC subsidizing them. So if you sold Nvidia on the deep deep sea revelations and now you're finding out that might not be the real story. Perhaps it was a huge mistake. Makes sense to me. If there really a way for businesses to save a fortune, GPUs for AI, then you'd have to believe virtually everyone in tech is a complete moron. And that seems unlikely. Consider this. We learned in the last few weeks that Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Metta, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, and Larry Ellison, Chairman CTO of Oracle, are all paying full price for the chips from Nvidia. Now maybe all three are knuckleheads, or maybe there's so much demand that they simply don't have a choice. You have to believe that before they laid out the billions they did their due diligence, which has to include the deep sea software story that supposedly let you do more with less. It's not like Deep Seat was a secret, it just got a lot more attention this week. I am sure they knew everything that was in that semi analysis piece and still went forward and paid full price. So is Deep seeking an auto alternate universe that bodes terribly from videos pricing down the road? Hey, anything is possible, but if you had to design the most punitive way to bring down the price of this great stock, you'd invent something like Deep Seat. Hmm. I think the semi analysis piece is spot on. It may just be one more long knife aimed at Nvidia and nothing more. Maybe it's not so great to be the king after all. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise I'd find it just for you right here. My money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you Monday.

[American Express Representative]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer I'm Elliot Kaelin.

[Jim Cramer]

And I cannot wait to tell you all about the new podcast I'm hosting for Smartless Media. It's called Smartless Presents Clueless, a bite.

[American Express Representative]

Sized twice weekly game show with a different main game and cliffhanger puzzle every single episode. And all this season, the contestant will.

[Jim Cramer]

Always be Sean Hayes. That's the Clueless promise.

[American Express Representative]

Since you never know what the game will be, you won't want to miss a single episode.

[Jim Cramer]

Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts.