Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 1/7/26

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – January 8, 2026

Podcast Summary

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Episode Overview

Jim Cramer rings in 2026 with a fast-paced, candid breakdown of the current stock market environment, vital investing lessons, and forecasts for this year’s IPO market. He dives into strategies for avoiding high-risk mistakes, highlights promising (and cautionary) stock picks, and brings on energy expert Rusty Brazil to deliver the unvarnished facts about Venezuela’s oil potential. The episode concludes with an electrifying Lightning Round and a serious warning about the risks posed by massive IPOs looming on the horizon.
Tone: Energetic, direct, and educational, staying true to Cramer’s signature style.

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Market Overview & Stock-Picking Wisdom

[03:13–10:00]

• Being Selective in a Roaring Market:
  Cramer opens by stressing the need for discernment, especially when markets are peaking. He warns against buying into stocks after huge moves (“a license to lose money”), citing examples like Seagate and Sandisk.

• Patience Over FOMO:
  He shares a common pitfall: buying near new highs, only to be left holding the bag when a dip inevitably comes.

  • “Not coming in on a stock that’s already up 30 or 40% this year…instead, you have to accept that you missed it. Not easy.” – Jim Cramer [03:43]

• Banking Sector Nuances:
  Cramer discusses his caution on buying big banks (using JP Morgan as an example):

  • “Even though CEO Jamie Dimon is a fantastic banker…he’s also a really cautious person. He’s not going to get on his conference call and crow that his stocks undervalued. He’s far more likely to talk about the potential landmines out there.” [04:40]
  • He recalls Dimon’s “cockroach” warning from last quarter, when bad news led to a swift stock drop, and Cramer suggests waiting for post-earnings pessimism as a better entry point:
    • “Now that's when you want to buy: after he lowers the boom. Not up here.” [06:11]

• Where to Hunt for Opportunities:
  Cramer details his research process, from reviewing his Charitable Trust to watching for stocks far off their highs.

• Specific Stock Highlights:

  • CrowdStrike (CRWD):
    Praised by Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, recently well off highs. Cramer calls out the opportunity:
    • “When it trades like this, what do you have to do? You have to pounce.” [07:36]
  • Microsoft (MSFT):
    Noted for long-term strength despite recent selloff – rare chance to buy below $500.
  • Procter & Gamble (PG):
    A “complicated, unloved stock” with a stellar dividend record, on sale due to recent slump. Cramer recommends slow accumulation to capture value and compounding:
    • “You can’t just have all tech…the bottom line, what you really want are companies with stocks that allow you to take advantage of the magic of compounding and make longer term gains.” [09:32]

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Lightning Round Highlights

[10:01–12:42] & [40:15–43:41]

• Aerovironment (AVAV):
  “The stock…is trading right now at 335…That's a terrific company. We have them all the time. All I can say is congratulations.” – Cramer to caller Mary [10:29]

• Celsius (CELH):
  “I think it could put 10 points on because the company’s doing quite well and it just closed that acquisition…They tell a great story.” [11:34]

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW):
  “Nikesh Arora does a great job…It's well off its high, I think it is a buy.” [40:37]

• Roblox (RBLX):
  “Very good company…people decided to pay too much for. Losing money, this market no longer wants it…a speculative position only.” [23:05]

• Wingstop (WING):
  “They missed a quarter and didn’t give a good explanation…can’t pound the table when we still have too high food inflation. So, I’m going to have to say no to Wingstop.” [43:18]

• Other Mentions:

  • Rambus (RMBS): Cramer still likes it for its growth and tech.
  • Advice on young/inexperienced investors: Speculative names can be "blessed" for the young, but not ideal for older, risk-averse investors.

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2025 IPO Market Recap & Outlook

[14:26–20:57]

• 2025 IPO Market Performance:

  • 202 IPOs, $44B raised (contrast: $142B+ in 2021), with only 39% trading above IPO price.
  • Standout winners (Carmen Space), but also ugly losers (Venture Global: -73%).
  • Many large IPOs popped at debut and then crashed hard.
    • “The performance of the IPO class of 2025 was pretty lackluster. And you know what? I think that's actually a huge positive for the broader stock market.” [17:03]

• Market Correction & Speculation:

  • Cramer highlights the cyclical IPO market, froth, and overvaluation (e.g., Fermi, Figment), emphasizing the importance of valuation discipline and calling out past on-air gags (like smashing Fig Newtons for “insane” IPO activity).

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2026: The Year of the Mega-IPO?

[22:49–32:52]

• The Backlog and Big Four:
  Cramer spotlights the enormous IPO backlog, calling out four possible “mega” offerings:

  1. Databricks ([23:12])
     • Enterprise software, recently valued at $134B, likely a solid offering if priced right.
  2. SpaceX ([24:15])
     • Most hyped, immense scale ($800B recent valuation), strong Starlink momentum, but Cramer cautions: “We don’t have an in depth view of the company’s financials yet…Is that enough to support an $800B valuation though?” [25:40]
  3. Anthropic ([27:15])
     • Fast-growing AI company; Cramer likes the enterprise focus, but warns: “$350 billion, that's a monster valuation. At that level, the stock will be trading at 30 to 40 times this year’s sales. Not earnings, sales.” [29:25]
  4. OpenAI ([30:00])
     • Possibly $830B valuation, burning huge cash, may prefer to stay private; “If OpenAI were to come public this year, it would be forced to open the kimono and show us its financial results. And I bet we see huge operating losses…” [30:53]

• Historical Context:

  • Cramer connects boom-bust IPO cycles from 2000 and 2021 with today’s environment, urging caution with new listings.

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Venezuela Oil Deep Dive (with Rusty Brazil, RBN Energy)

[32:53–40:15]

• Venezuela’s Real Oil Potential:

  • Despite boasting the world's largest reserves “on paper,” Venezuela’s daily production has plummeted to just 900,000 barrels.
  • Infrastructure is in “shambles,” and most refineries aren’t working; much investment would be needed before meaningful output.
    • Rusty Brazil: “In terms of production, it's only about 900,000 barrels a day, which is tiny...down from like 3 or 4 million barrels.” [33:10]
    • On infrastructure: “The majority of that infrastructure does not work. They're importing more product from the U.S. than was going to the U.S. from Venezuela.” [33:55]

• Heavy Crude Challenges:

  • Venezuela’s oil is “like tar or black molasses,” requiring special refining or upgrading, expensive for U.S. refiners.

• Market Implications:

  • Even aggressive ramp-up scenarios don’t threaten to “flood” the market; any increase would take years and wouldn’t swing global prices.
    • Rusty: “I think it’s going to be a long, long time before Venezuela floods the world.” [39:27]

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Warning: IPO Supply Shock Ahead

[44:10–47:29]

• Cramer’s Cautionary Outlook:
  As exciting as Databricks, Anthropic, SpaceX, and OpenAI are, Cramer cautions that the sheer size of new supply may overwhelm market demand:

  • “These are all much larger companies than we've ever dealt with…some may aim for $1 trillion valuation right out of the chute. It could be deadly for the rest of the stock market.” [44:20]

  • “If we get three or four [mega-IPOs] close together...supply, that's excess stock, will overwhelm demand and the market will have to digest all this new stock. Can it? I think not.” [45:24]

  • “Lots of other stocks will have to be sold so the potential buyers can raise the cash to participate in the big IPOs…this shift won’t happen for a while, but these megadeals are the biggest looming threat to the bull.” [46:22]

• Historical Parallels:
  He cautions this is “what happened in 2000, again in 2014, and...end of 2021,” leading to significant declines for existing portfolios.

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Notable Quotes

• “Not coming in on a stock that’s already up 30 or 40% this year…instead you have to accept that you missed it. Not easy.” – Jim Cramer [03:43]
• “Now that's when you want to buy: after he lowers the boom. Not up here.” (On JP Morgan/Dimon’s caution) [06:11]
• “When it trades like this, what do you have to do? You have to pounce.” (On CrowdStrike) [07:36]
• “This year we’ve got the potential for as many as 4 mega IPOs...even one of them happens, it’ll be a huge deal. And if priced right, the first or second megadeal is the one you want…Any later than that and this market might begin to run out of money.” [32:26]
• Rusty Brazil: “The majority of that infrastructure does not work. So they're importing more product from the United States than was going to the United States from Venezuela.” [33:55]
• “If we get three or four [mega-IPOs] close together…that is a very different story…supply…will overwhelm demand…lots of other stocks will have to be sold so buyers can raise cash. That’s what happened in 2000, 2014, and 2021…” – Cramer [45:24]

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Structurally Important Timestamps

• [03:13] — Cramer’s core market risk lesson and bank sector deep dive
• [07:36] — CrowdStrike and Microsoft value opportunities
• [09:32] — Procter & Gamble as a “slow build” value pick
• [14:26] — IPO market 2025 recap
• [22:49] — 2026 IPO preview: Big Four
• [32:53] — Venezuela oil supply: Rusty Brazil interview
• [40:15] — Lightning Round rapid-fire stocks
• [44:10] — Mega-IPO supply warning

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Final Takeaways

• Timing and selectivity are crucial in a buoyant market—don’t chase breakouts.
• Look to buy quality stocks when they temporarily fall out of favor (CrowdStrike, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble).
• The 2025 IPO market’s lackluster performance is, paradoxically, healthy.
• 2026 may bring “the year of the mega-IPO” with some of the largest deals ever, but this flood of new supply could destabilize stocks more broadly.
• Venezuela’s oil comeback is overhyped—its battered infrastructure and tar-like crude won’t move the global supply needle for years.
• Prepare for IPO-driven volatility and be ready to hold quality through the coming maelstrom.

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In Cramer's words:
“There are bull markets somewhere—I promise to find them for you, right here on Mad Money.” [47:19]

Transcript

[A]

Hey, this is Jeff Lewis from Radio Andy live and uncensored. Catch me talking with my friends about my latest obsessions, relationship issues and bodily ailments.

[B]

With that kind of drama that seems.

[A]

To follow me, you never know what's going to happen.

[C]

You can listen to Jeff Lewis live at home or anywhere you are. Download the SiriusXM app for over 425 channels of AD, free music, sports, entertainment and more. Subscribe now and get 3 months free offer details Apply another test, another not pregnant. Words can't describe the feeling. But in 2026, there's the clarity of data with every sunrise. If you're trying to conceive, Mira measures four key hormones with the same tech that fertility labs use. Get real time numbers and personalized data to get things right and feel confident in your journey again. Wake up to daily insights that move you toward your baby dreams. Right now, for a very limited time, get 25% off using code [e-mail]. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Crane Market. Up in my friends, I'm just trying to make a little bit of money here. My job is not just entertain, but to educate, to teach you. So call me at 1-800-743- CNBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. When the market flies like it's been doing at least until today, you need to be selective. You have to get more choosing because you don't want to start your buying near the highs and that is often a license to lose money. So in a day where The Dow tumbled 466 points, the S&P shed.34%, Nasdaq advanced 0.16. And I want to show you how a professional comes up with ideas in a tape that's roaring and does so without taking on too much risk that we have a quick downturn while attempting to get the maximum reward. Sometimes stock picking is all about not coming in on a Stock that's already up 30 or 40% this year. Instead, you have to accept that you missed it. Not easy. I'm sure you I'm sure that all of you have one time or another come in on top of a monster move, maybe a Seagate yesterday Sandisk earlier today and wish you would exercise some patience because you would have been better off waiting for your pitch. And sometimes it just doesn't happen. Pass. Let's go over first the wrong way to do it. You might have decided on Monday that it was time to own a oil producer because our government now seems to be in control Venezuela, or at least in control of its petroleum. That was a mistake, an error. You came in near the high. And more important, if Venezuela boosts production dramatically over the next 18 months, the price of crude is going to get slaughtered. At the same time, the banks are starting to bother me now. Don't be wrong. You know, this group is quite undervalued. I have praised it many times. You, these are tremendous franchises, but we're headed into earnings season in six days. J.P. morgan reports. I think this, the biggest bank is. It's cheap stocks. Way too cheap, actually. 16 times earnings. So why not buy it now? I am worried short term because even though CEO Jamie Dimon is a fantastic banker, he's also a really cautious person. He's not going to get on his conference call and crow that his stocks undervalued. He's far more likely to talk about the potential landmines out there. Jamie is a straight shooter. There's nothing bad about that. When things look ugly, he tends to tell you what could potentially go right. When things look good as they do now, he tends to tell you what could go wrong. The house of pain. I love that. But the media will take the comments out of context and they're going to present him as an extreme pessimist who's worried about the next credit crisis. Remember his comments last quarter about the blob of a subprime lender, Tricolor, and the collapse of First Brands, the giant auto parts conglomerate, Both casualties Within the same month as September last year, JP Morgan took $170 million loss on Triclord. Not his finest moment, although it's barely more than a Browning error for the company. Then Jamie on the call, lowered the boom, telling us, and I'm going to quote, I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. Everyone should be forewarned on this one. End quote. He acknowledged he was tightening his lending policies, and with that admonition, he crushed his own stock. J.P. morgan stock dropped from $307 to two $94 a couple of days. Many people who bought it in the three hundreds then dumped it, they panicked, they bought high and they sold low. And that's not what we want here. And it turns out, frankly, there really have only been this two cockroaches. But he's a cautious man. You know what? He probably doubled down on the cockroach commentary. Maybe lob a bomb or two about the future of the Federal Reserve's independence or. Or the lack thereof. Now that's when you want to buy after he lowers the boom. Not up here. After you run even after to get hammered today on a note of caution by an analyst. So what do you do? You wait for the reaction to Jamie's cautious commentary to give you a better entry point if it doesn't happen. Pass. The amazing thing about this stock market is that it's a never ending source of incredible ideas that can make you grow rich. Now look, the ideas don't grow on trees, but they're readily available. You just need to know where to look. Take my morning show Squawk on the street today. My co host Carl continued to me and asked what looked interesting after so many stocks had run. Now before I go out there at 9am I always like to scrutinize the charitable trust portfolio that I run in conjunction with the CMC Investing Club, which I wish you join. As I went down the list and I literally go down company by company, I was astounded to see the stock of CrowdStrike, the best cybersecurity outfit run by George Kurtz, had fallen almost 100 points from its no its highs in November. The House of A. I read the most recent research and went over what George told us when he reported last time when he was on our show. I went over what in videos Jensen Huang said about the company, its keynote address and CSE on Monday. Do you know that Jensen's been Talking about this $10 trillion transformation, the modernization of enterprise computing via AI and accelerate computing? You know what he said? He said that CrowdStrike is the secure foundation of this revolution. He praised it several times. You know what? Stock didn't do anything. I think that's wrong. So I told Carl this is the kind of stock that rarely comes down this much and is almost never this far from its high. And when it trades like this, what do you have to do? You have to pounce. The stock was at $464 at the time and I said it finished the day at just under 479. Now they got a nice price. If you bought. I'm definitely, by the way, not telling you to sell it. I'm saying that when you can get a good cost basis like you did in CrowdStrike this morning, you're playing with a very strong hand. Now let's say we're playing gin. This kind of like you're dealt a straight and three of a kind. You got two nines with the dealer showing six. If we're talking about blackjack, it's a terrific way to Push the odds in your favor. How about Microsoft? This company's been doing very well but its stock's been punished by the fact that management wants to spend a fortune on I. Ever since Microsoft reported its latest quarter, the stock's going pretty much straight down. How often do you get to buy the stock of Microsoft at $485 after traded at $555 last summer? I know the answer. Not very often. I can go over how in video Broadcom are down huge too much in the way away from their highs. But well then again I've been recommending them consistently for club members. So there's no real revelation there. So let me give you another one that's on my radar screen that might intrigue you. One that is hated. Despised. One that I wrote up in how to make money in any market as a tremendous company. That's become a complicated unloved stock because it's not tech and it doesn't have great growth right now. I'm talking about Procter and Gamble. The Cincinnati Colossus has seen its stock tumble remarkably from 180 in March to $138. Say this is P and G. It doesn't usually have that kind of move. It's a dividend risk. Some people call it a different king because it's increased its payout for 69 consecutive years. You're now getting the stock with a 3% yield. I'm not calling the bottom but it does have a new CEO as the opportunity to shake things up. Proctors already pre announced a nasty quarter and it's one of the few consumer packaged goods companies that doesn't have a GOP dash. One problem. I got no illusions. I don't think it will necessarily stop at 3%. That's not that high a yield. Many of the packaged goods companies feel four or five, six. Those are mostly food related. How do you approach it? Okay, let's say you want to buy 100 shares tomorrow. Don't only buy 25 shares. Then you wait for it to fall to another level. We yield three and a quarter and then you buy another 25 gets down low to say 4%. Be extremely. That'd be a big big move for that. Be a big dividend, big dividend yield. Well then you can have 50 shares. You have a very nice sized position. Slowly but surely not at one price. Okay. It's not crossroad, it's not Microsoft not broke up Sound of Video. But you can't just have all tech. The bottom line, what you really want are companies with stocks that allow you to take advantage of the magic of compounding and make longer term gains, not trading gains longer term. By all means on some unloved tech news, but save room for a quality consumer like company like Procter and Gamble. It's momentarily down on slug. Fantastic franchise, amazing dividend that can, after compounding, create great value for you and your portfolio. House of pleasure, Mary in California. Mary.

[D]

Hi, Jim, this is Mary from Santa Barbara.

[C]

How you doing, Mary? What's going on? Well, I have inherited an Aira and it's doing really great. My husband was a longtime listener and.

[D]

Follower of you and so everything's doing really great, as expected and hoped for.

[C]

But there's one stock that's a little weird and that's aerovironment Avav.

[D]

And I just wonder what you think about the stock.

[C]

It loses money like crazy and then it gains money. That's true. But I've got to tell you got a lucky break after the close. We heard from President Trump said he wants to make the defense budget go up dramatically, $500 billion. And I got to tell you something. The stock which went out at $318 at 4 o' clock is trading right now at 335. And there's nothing funk that. That's a terrific company. We have them all the time. All I can say is congratulations. Think about how much money Mary just made. Justin in Pennsylvania. Justin. Jim, how are you doing? I am doing well, Justin. How about you? You're from the east coast, east part of Pennsylvania, West, East Coast. All right, good go birds. What's up? So recently I've been watching Celsius closely. The stock has been getting hammered over the last three months, dropping from the mid-60s down to low 40s as investors, you know, are worried about inventory reset and integration risk. A price target of $70. Is the current price around $50 a screen buy or is that P E ratio still a little too rich for you? Jim, I write this memo in the morning about 10 things I'm watching. It goes to anyone who's interested in the investing club. And I read, I put in, I read this Needham piece, that's the one you're talking about with the price target of 70. I thought it was a little bit aggressive. But you know what? I think it could put 10 points on because the company's doing quite well and it just closed that acquisition. And by the way, I always welcome Celsius on the show. They tell a great story. Listen, by all means, own some unloved tech names if you want to, but what we really want are the stocks that give you tremendous long term capital gains. Well man, tonight as we head into the New year, I'm taking stock of some of the buzziest IPOs in 2025 and seeing where they are these days. It's not that great a story, but then there's plenty of potential new names in store for 2026 and they I'm going to give you the rundown of the ones I'm watching and how to play them. And with all the uncertainty surrounding oil companies in Venezuela and crude spy, I'm turning to the experts, getting a picture of what to do next when we speak to RBN's Rusty Brazil. So stay with Kramer.

[A]

Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow imkramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer Madmentions Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com Pandora makes it easy for you to find your favorite music. Discover new artists and genres by selecting any song or album and we'll make you a personalized station for free download.

[C]

On the Apple App Store or Google.

[A]

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[C]

As we kick off 2026 I keep telling you that this will be A big year for banking with a ton of M and a deals and IPOs. And that's a natural consequence of having new regulators who, I don't know, let's just call them much more business friendly than the previous administration. At the same time, there's a real backlog of privately held companies that need to come public. They raise money. So tonight I want to walk you through what's happening in the IPO market. Started with last year and then getting into my predictions for this year after the break. Now, in 2025, we saw 202 IPOs that collectively raised $44 billion. That's up from 150 deals in 2024 that raised just $30 billion. Keep in mind, that's still down big from the last IPO boom in 2021, when we had nearly 400 deals that raised over $142 billion. Of course, most of those deals were small. Now, only 8 of 80 of last year's offerings raised $50 million or more. Only 26 raised over 500 million. That's very tiny in terms of performance. Call it a mixed bag. Overall, only 78 of the 202 stocks that came public last year are trading above the level where they came public. That's less than 40%. Not so hot. On average, IPOs from the class of 2025 are up just 5%. Although that's largely because there's some big winners skewing the numbers. You know what? If you looked at the median deal from last year, you know they're down 15%. If you zero in on the 26 largest deals of the year, the companies that raised over half a billion dollars, the results are still far from great. Only 12 of these 26 stocks are up from where they came public. Media performers down 6%. That said, there's a pretty wide range here. You've got newly public stocks like Carmen Space and Defense, more than quadrupling from the IPO price. These guys build components for rockets and missiles. This market loves rockets and missiles. Then you got the hideous losers like Venture Global, a snake bitten builder of liquefied natural gas export facilities. It's down an astounding 73%. That was the second largest IPO of the year. Really hurt a lot of people. It's turned to a real horror show looking at just the 10 largest deals of the year. You know what? They're pretty underwhelming, too. Half of those stocks are trading below their offer price. And even if we look at the winners, still not that impressive. All right, let's start with Circle Internet Group. Let me explain how this works. Is a stablecoin issuer. On paper this one's a standout. It's up 160% from working public. But Circles IPO priced at $31 and then it opened at $69. Zen zoomed all the way to $299 in less than three weeks after it came public. Ever since the stocks practically been in free fall. Now it's back to $80 and change. So sure, yes it's a big win if you got in on the ipo. Very few people did. But unless you did well, you know what, you're down big in this big now. You know what I can say the same thing about one that I talked about a lot on the show Core we that's a data center operator can public at 40 bucks shot up to $187 in June only to sink to $77 today. It's up 93% from the IPO price but down 59% from its highs. How about Figma? That's design Software Play. It's up 13% from where it came public which looks pretty good, right? But the stock's fallen 74% from its high on its second day of trading in early August. How about bullish now this is a cryptocurrency exchange price. Its IPO at 39 bucks then saw its stock open at 90. Now it's back down to 39 change. Even if you got in on the deal, you know what, you barely have a gain at this point. So it's fair to say the performance of the IPO class of 2025 was pretty lackluster. And you know what? I think that's actually a huge positive for the broader stock market. At times last year the IPO market looked like it was boiling over driven by irrational exubers. Yet it keeps self correcting and returning to market more rational ground. That's so good. Now I've talked about this a lot. Back when Corey became public at $40 in March, I was one of the few commentators was willing to go positive on it. That was in the run up to liberation day. And remember those tariffs and everybody on Wall street was terrified. I thought Corey had a great business mining data. They kind of create the data center infrastructure and the stock was way too cheap at these levels. But when it more than quadrupled by June and then Circle Internet came public more than tripling in its first few days I said you had to cool your jets. Good call. Of course Circle Proceed to surge from 115 at the time to just under $3 over the next couple of weeks. Corey batted another 25 points or so. But if you sold when when I went negative, you still would have avoided some massive losses down the road. Maybe that's the key. Remember when Figment came public at the end of July and more than tripled right out of the box? I tore up a box of Big Newtons on air because the IPO market had gotten so insane with the stock round tripping back to $37. Clearly those cookies had it coming. Never like fig news. Let's not forget Fermi, which came public at the beginning of October on the heels of some of the most speculative AI related trading of the year. Fermi's more of a business plan than a business. They plan to build a massive data center in Texas along with their own power generation, including of course, something everybody loves, a nuclear reactor eventually. Neat plan. But I almost lost my mind when the market bestowed this thing a $19 billion valuation right out of the gate. Like I said at the time, no business plan is worth 19 billion. Fermi was at $32 back then. Now it's at under 10 bucks. I hope you dodge that bullet. But again, the fact that the IPO market was able to mostly self correct in these situations and stamp out the froth, that's what we really like, is a good thing for stocks in general. Just after fertilizing firm became public, the IPO market went quiet for a while thanks to the government shutdown that forced a much needed cooling off period for the IPO market was good for us. After the government reopened, we ended up getting the largest deal in four years when Medline came public. Now this is a medical supplies distributor and a medical device maker highly thought of in the industry. Medline price its IPO at $29 and the stock jumped to $41 on its first day of trading. Now it's just a 40 bucks and change. Now this seems pretty healthy to me, this terrific company and if the stock comes in, it's a buy. Here's the bottom line. All of these fizzle IPOs feel like a pretty good sign considering what we have coming for the ipo market in 2026. But that's what we in the television industry call a tease. Let us take a quick break and when I come back, I'll get into what to expect from the IPO market this year as 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the mega ipo. Net money's back after the break.

[A]

Coming up, Kramer's taking a peek at what could be an historic set of IPOs on their way in 2026 and sharing how excited he is for each next. Hey, this is Jeff Lewis from Radio Andy live and uncensored. Catch me talking with my friends about my latest obsessions, relationship issues and bodily ailments.

[B]

With that kind of drama that seems.

[A]

To follow me, you never know what's going to happen.

[C]

You can listen Jeff Lewis live at.

[D]

Home or anywhere you are.

[C]

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[A]

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[C]

Now that we're in 2026, what does the IPO market look like right now? We've got this sizable backlog of deals lined up from the government shutdown. Could be a cancer focused biotech company called Actis that's coming public this week. But like I told you before the break, I'm thinking this will be the year of the mega deal because there are a lot of huge potential IPOs waiting in the wing. Specifically, there are four possible megadeals we got to cover. I think they're all worth watching. Now the first one is Databricks. That's an enterprise software company for data storage and analytics tools. Now we've had the co founder and CEO Ali Goatsi on the show. And I've got to tell you, the few times that he's been on tells a really impressive story. Even as this has not been a great moment for enterprise software Goats, he's a good man and I think this one's going to be a big success. Plus, Databrex has been having no trouble raising capital in the markets at all. Just this month the company raised $4 billion in a series L investment round led by some big name venture capitalists. That deal valued the company at $134 billion. Companies basically sought snowflake competitor and when Stovella came public just over five years ago, everyone gawked when the company's market cap instantly shot to 70 billion on the first day of trading. By the way, while still did pretty well last year, up 42%, a real standout in the enterprise software space, its market cap currently sits a little below 80 billion, not too far above where it closed on its first day of trading in September 2020. A lot of rational exuberance then. Food for thought. All that said, last month, the CEO of Databricks told CNBC that the latest fundraising round doesn't necessarily take a 2026 IPO off the table. As long as the IPO market stays relatively robust, these guys might be willing to come public probably in the second half of the year. I kind of like it if it's, if it's priced correctly. How about the next potential megadeal? Now this one's really exciting. It's Elon Musk Space X. It's built an excellent business with four higher rocket launches after investing billions of dollars to build its own constellation of low earth orbit satellites. Space X also has a very attractive business with its startling satellite Internet service that can connect with incredibly remote locations. It's fast, it's cheap and it works many places around the globe. Obviously this one will have a ton of interest because, well, must justifiably call the personality, right? But honestly, the real question here is what that IPO might look like because we simply haven't seen such large private companies come public before. It's an anomaly. In December, Space X was valued at $800 billion in a secondary share sale growth process. That's when Musk hinted that an IPO more might be in the cars this year. But that $800 billion valuation represents a major increase in just a short period of time. Consider this. When SpaceX did a secondary share sale last July, companies valued at 4 billion in December 2024, 350 billion June of 2024, 210 billion and the last real fundraising round, early 2023 valued the company at 137 billion. That's a staggering game. We don't have an in depth view of the company's financials yet, though it looks like Space X is on track to generate 22 to 24 billion dollars in revenue in 2026. Is that enough to support an $800 billion valuation though? And how much stock would Space X even offer as part of its IPO will be something like Alibaba's $25 billion offering back in 2014, which by the way, only valued the Chinese e commerce company at something like 230 billion. If it's that, if it's much larger than that, will there be enough buyers to top up the supply? I got no idea. I hear great things about profitability, I really do, but we have to wait and see before we're sure. I hate to be so wishy washy, but I can't say more than that. Next up, there are two companies that are rumored to be IPO candidates this year. First, Anthropic. That's the parent company of Claude and OpenAI, the guys buying ChatGPT. Let's start with the Synthropic news. About a month ago we started seeing reports that this company is preparing to come public. While Claude doesn't have the same level of brand awareness, ChatGPT or Google's Gemini for that matter, it's widely regarded as having some of the best technology in the business. More importantly, these guys have a clear niche. Anthropics focused on developing AI tools for enterprise customers. Businesses which account for 80% of the company's revenue. I like that because the enterprise has a lot more use for generative AI. Thank you. The consumer does a consumer business also, which is also known as a B2C has a fickle set of clients. But a business to business or B2B company like Anthropic has a much better chance to grow unimpeded. It can have secular growth. It's. It is frankly not. It's not fickle, it's just sticky. That's the word people use for business to business. Sticky. There's also been some reporting that suggests Anthropolis on track to become profitable much faster than most of these companies, particularly their rivals at OpenAI. According to documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal a couple of months ago, Anthropic expects to break even for the first time in 2028, whereas open air is burning cash at a much higher rate and doesn't expect to turn profit until 2030. We also heard that Anthropic was expect to have about 4 billion revenue last year, which should grow to north of 10 billion this year. I like that in terms of valuation though. All right, now here it gets tougher. There's some pretty substantial numbers being thrown around for Anthropic. In mid November, Anthropic raised $15 billion combined from Nvidia and Microsoft. It's part of a broader partnership which also includes the purchase of chips from Nvidia and a $30 billion worth of computing capacity from Microsoft. Then just today the Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic plans to raise another $10 billion from some big name investors at a valuation now around 350 billion. Now that's up from 183 billion the last time these guys raised money in just September. I got to tell you, I really like Anthropic as a business. Smartest people I know in tech are big believers in this one. But man, $50 billion, that's a monster valuation. At that level, the stock will be trading at 30 to 40 times this year's sales. Not earnings, sales. And finally there's the $830 billion gorilla that is Open Air, which is also rumored to be a 2026 IPO candidate, though I'm not as convinced that this one can or will happen. Right now Open Air is apparently seeking to raise $100 billion from private investors at an $830 billion valuation. And if they can do that, you see they don't won't need the money. They don't need to come public anytime soon. Hey, by the way, to put that in perspective, when SoftBank agreed to invest $40 billion in OpenAI last spring, just last spring, the deal valued the company at 350 billion. Jesus are staggering. Now back in November, WSJ Tech Conference CFO Sarah Fryer said that an IPO was not in the cards, at least near term. So I've been surprised to hear OpenAI mentioned so frequently. Is one of the potential megadeals of 2026. In recent weeks, like I've mentioned before, this company's made something like $1.4 trillion in spending commitments. And a lot of people started to wonder if they could actually come up with that money even if OpenAI can hit its ambitious long term revenue targets. So if Open I were to come public this year, it would be forced to open the kimono and show us its financial results. And I bet we see huge operating losses and a Massive cash burn rate. I don't think Wall street would be too thrilled with that. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my gut feeling. I believe OpenAI would be much better off raising a big chunk of money privately from venture capitalists instead. It's not just a search tool, it's not just a simple chat, but it's much better than that. So I don't want to denigrate it, but just understand they're losing a lot of money. Here's the bottom line. This year we've got the potential for as many as 4 mega IPOs that could be larger than anything we've ever seen. I don't know how the market's going to handle it. I'm more optimistic on some of these than others. But even if one of them happens, it'll be a huge deal. And if priced right, the first or second megadeal is the one you want to get a piece of. Any later than that and this market might begin to run out of money. Sounds strange. Stick around and I tell you why. Let's take some calls. Let's start with Tyler in Nevada. Tyler. Hey, Jim. I hope you're doing well. I'm looking at this one as a speculative pick. It's down about 50% from the highs last year. I'm wondering if it's a buy soon or what's going on with it. It is. Roblox, okay? Now, this company is a very, very good company that people decided to pay too much for. In other words, because it's losing money, this market no longer wants it. Remember what I said last year was the year of magical investing? That year's over. If you're losing money, people don't want to touch it. That said, Dave Brazouki does a good job running it. I wouldn't mind a speculative position. Only on robots. But this year can bring us 4 mega IPOs that are much larger than anything we've ever seen. If even one of them happens, this could be a huge deal for the stock market. Watch for me, moneyhead. I'm digging into the developing situation around oil exports out of Venezuela, helping you understand what's at stake really for the oil companies and their stocks. When I sit down with RBN Energy's Rusty Brazil, the go to name in the business, then everyone's looking forward to a wave of new stocks to sink our teeth in 2026 like I just went over. But there could be a downside to all that new availability. And I'm explaining what it is. And it's not pretty, of course. All your calls, Rapid Fire. Tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer. Well, you know, it's the biggest stories around here these days. What's next for the oil market now that our government has captured the president of Venezuela? This is the country which some say has the largest oil reserves on earth. If it's most of it is heavy crude. And the Trump administration wants to fix up its infrastructure and effectively manage the sale of Venezuelan oil. Now this would be very compelling if oil were expensive right now. But what's the impact that light sweep crude trading at $56 a barrel and this stuff is not nearly as good. Let's take a closer look with our go to energy expert Rusty Brazil. He's the founder and executive chairman of RBN Energy. He's got the best data that I know. Rusty, welcome back to Mad Money.

[B]

Well, good to see you again, Jim. Appreciate being back.

[C]

I'm so glad you're here, Rusty, because first I need you to just give us the lay of the land because look, the rap is biggest oil producer. Conceivably the reserves are great, could really change things. But when I read your stuff, I think that may be too exuberant.

[B]

It is, Jim. They have, at least on paper, a lot of reserves, more reserves than any other country in the, in the world. But in terms of production, it's only about 900,000 barrels a day, which is tiny. And that is down from like 3 or 4 million barrels a day a few years ago. So production is down. Their volumes are going either to China or to the United States or to a few other countries. And so in the big scheme of life, we're really not talking about that much crude, like a percent or so of the world production.

[C]

Wow. Okay. Now let's talk about refining. From what I read, the concept of them having a huge infrastructure, refining that works is just plain wrong.

[B]

It's plain wrong. So they had at one time a huge infrastructure that works. Now the majority of that infrastructure does not work. And so they're importing more product from the United States than was going to the United States from Venezuela. So the situation is totally flipped and it will take a long time and if ever to see that refinery capacity come back online. We expect that when the billions of dollars start flowing from the United States to Venezuela, we think the majority of it's going to flow to upstream, not to downstream.

[C]

So let's explain that that means we're going to get crude. This is not the kind of crude that is necessarily the most we're not going to fill up necessarily our gas tanks with this. Explain how difficult it is to use this kind of crude versus say the other kinds that we have. But maybe we have a refining edge because we were ready to take oil up from the Canadian tar sands, which could be similar.

[B]

It is similar. So, you know, this is not the same kind of thing that you see on Landman where you see gushers and it looks like a black liquid. This stuff looks like tar or maybe black molasses. And it comes out of the ground, it's got a high sulfur content, which means it's. It's very hard to handle. And once you get it out of the ground, you either have to put it through an upgrader, which is like a simple refinery to make it into a real crude oil, or you have to mix it up with diluent, which you can think of as like a paint, a paint thinner, so that you have to go through that entire process just to get it to one of their refineries, which is not hardly working, like 20% or so, or get it to a ship where it can be exported to somebody else like the United States or China that has the refinery capacity to be able to use it.

[C]

Now, China has been the recipient and they've, of course, the Venezuelans owe China a lot of money and they've been taking. China's been taking it back in crude. But I understand this crude really isn't necessarily even ending up in gas tanks there.

[B]

Well, I really don't know that. In terms of the last couple of months, it doesn't look like there has been a lot of Venezuela crude moving to China. But certainly before two months ago, there was a lot of Venezuela crude moving to China. So if Venezuela total Production is about 900,000 barrels a day, about 140 has been coming to the United States via Chevron and. And a couple hundred have been staying in country for the refineries there. And for a while the rest was pretty much moving to China. That's not been the case again over the last six weeks or so.

[C]

Now, if you look at opportunity, I know we don't pick stocks here when we talk with you, but there are refiners that had a vision that one day this is the kind of crude we would be using. They could have a possibility of making some money if we switched all that 900,000 barrels to the United States.

[B]

That's exactly right. But Jim, it wasn't a vision. That was the plan back 10, 15 years ago. The idea was that a lot of Venezuela crude was going to come to the United States, a lot of Mexican crude was going to come to the United States and the refiners spent billions of dollars in order to be able to run it. Then all of a sudden the production in those countries started to drop off and we discovered shale. And shale does not need the same kind of hardware to produce as this heavy, sticky, high sulfur crude needs to be able to be refined.

[C]

So let's put that in perspective. If people are thinking, you know what, Venezuela's got these huge reserves, more important, say to our country than the Permian, what would you say to someone who felt that that was the case?

[B]

Well, first of all, I would say be suspicious of that 300 billion number for reserves that is very well could be a made up number. So we don't know how big that number is. Secondly, the Permian is right next door to a lot of refineries via pipeline that can get down to the refineries that can run it right now. And, and with Venezuela, you got to put this stuff on ships and bring it to the United States and then use this expensive refinery equipment to be able to run it. So in my opinion, it'll be a long, long time before it's more important to the United States than the perimeter.

[C]

Well, how about this 30 to 50 million barrels that we heard talk about. Can you put that perspective, what President Trump's talking about?

[B]

Yeah, first of all, we don't know. So let's assume that the number is 50 and not 30. Obviously there's a big difference between the two numbers. Right, but let's assume, yeah, let's assume it's 50. And then the question is, how long is it going to take to get that much crude from Venezuela to the United States? Oh, and the kind of ships that they'll probably likely use in order to do that, two or three months if we get the majority of the production and the inventory that's already there into the United States. So when that happens, that's a big deal. But it's only like 300, 400,000 barrels a day. And back in the good old days when we were running a lot of Venezuela crude, we were running a million barrels a day. So we can take a lot more crude oil than the 50 million that they're talking about right now.

[C]

All right, so last question, because I always like to come to you for price. If Venezuela was really able to flood the world, what would happen is these oil companies would probably be wrong spending all that money because if they're going to get in a price recruit falls from here, it may be a bad investment.

[B]

Yeah, but Jim, I don't, I think it's going to be a long, long time before Venezuela floods the world. You know, President Trump's talking about 18 months, maybe 18 months. We've got another 400, 500,000 barrels a day out of Venezuela that is not going to flood the world. And so when we're talking about spending, you know, tens or hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the next few years, I think before you even have to worry about such a thing, we're probably maybe a decade out. All right, well, I'm going to, I think that's very unlikely.

[C]

Keep the speculation, Landman. Then I'm glad you gave us that, that historical reference because that's what people, everyone's been watching. Well, I want to thank Rusty Brazil's founder, executive chairman of RBN Energy. Rusty, thank you for coming on. Telling the Truth. Truth. It really makes things crystal clear. Appreciate it.

[B]

You bet. Happy to do that.

[C]

All right, Nav mice back in. It is time. It's time for the light round. And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Getting daddy down to the light round. Crazy. But let's start with Jeff in California. Jeff, Jimmy, chill. Happy New Year. Right at you. Same. What's happening? This is Jeff from Long Creek, California. I'm a club member. My question's on Palo Alto Networks. I think that Nikesh Arora does a great job. I slighted him too much. I said so many good things about CrowdStrike earlier. Palo Alto's perfect company is well off its high. I think it is a buy. Let's go to Randy in Washington. Randy, we are. Jim. This is Randy from the small town of Rainier, Washington. This company had the best performing System Stockware in 2025, the year of magical investing. But I believe this is part of the same CrowdStrike group you talked this morning on Squawk. It's down from a high of 141in October with deals in place for Microsoft Meta and the Blackwell rollout. What are your thoughts on on this company in the year of practical investing? Well, I'll tell you, a younger person came, younger person came to me, asked about stocks that were losing money the other night at the Versant launch party and he hadn't actually mentioned nephews. And I said to him, losing too much money. And I said, you're young. You can speculate on it. A person who's a little bit older, too much risk to it. But I Blessed it for him because he's very young otherwise. No, the opportunities are better elsewhere. Let's go to Joe in New York, Joe from Long Island. Happy New Year, Jim. Same to you. What's going on? Been following you since your radio days. Oh, my God. 25 years. You got it. And I'm older than you? No, someone older than me. Check that out. When I. When I scroll down everywhere, it always stops in 1955. There's someone old minutes. Check that. Do a fact. Check that. In any case, I've been a follower of you and I've read your books. Thank you. Rambus is the name of the stock. It's done well. Last year I had it for several years. Should I consider buying? You know, it always had great technology. It always has. I always keep waiting for it to have like an explosive move. And by the way, thank you for those kind comments. It hasn't. But you know what? It's not that expensive versus growth rate. I'm going to. I'm going to bless it for you. You've obviously done some homework. You've been around for a long time. You know, it's a good one. Let's go to Bob in Vermont. Bob. Hi, Jim. Happy New Year. I have a question about Wingstop, which seems to have a lot of short interest right now. Well, that's because they did miss a quarter and they didn't give you a good explanation. Since then, it's been up and down. We're struggling with Texas Roadhouse right now. Why? Because of cattle pricing. I have to tell you, the ones that I do like, though, I like Texas Roadhouse. I do like yo, but it was downgraded. I like McDonald's, but I can't pound the table. As I told Jeff Marks from the Investing Club, my partner, I can't pound the table when we still have too high food inflation. So I'm going to have to say no to Wingstop. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[A]

The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles schwab. Coming up, 2026 could feature the biggest IPOs of all time. But this could pose an unexpected danger to your portfolio. Kramer's sending out the warning.

[C]

When I think about what could derail this market, I always come back to supply and demand. Earlier I told you about the big IPOs that could come later this year. These deals will be exciting. New people will wade into this market like you haven't seen in ages. There'll be retail demand. I think we'll find that investors and traders will all want A piece of open air space X at any price. But there's an underside to a booming IPO market that we have to talk about. These are all much larger companies that we've ever dealt with. Companies that will want billions upon billions of dollars when they come public. We're not used to that among Databricks, Anthropic, SpaceX and Opening. We're talking about companies that are already valued at hundreds of billions of dollars. And it wouldn't shock me if a couple of them actually aim for $1 trillion valuation right out of the chute. It will be unprecedented and it could be deadly for the rest of the stock market. Here's why. We live in a world where there's a set amount money that individuals are willing to plow into the stock market and that that amount isn't all that big. Well, if you batch all the orders at once, of course it's a force to be reckoned with. We have mutual funds that are powerful. They'll try to get as much stock as possible in the ipo because these deals will presumably be priced as logically as as possible to benefit both the buyers and the sellers. I mean it. These deals are so high profile the bankers will try to make it so everyone wins. But the problem is by the time these deals are priced, the allocations are divvied out and the retail investors flood in and bid up the opening price. There may not be enough money sloshing around to handle all the stock that's for sale. I bet they'll be enough maybe for the first megadeal to roar right out of the gate. The second one, it could do well too. But if we get three or four close together now that is a very different story. Again, the first one will be fine with the discipline on the part of the underwriters. The second deal might work too, meaning it'll be placed in the right hands. Not flipper hands, but real investors go to a slight premium. However, by the time we get to the third megadeal, we're going to find out, I believe that we're maxed out. There simply aren't hundreds of billions of dollars of non index fund fund money floating around to support the prices we're liable to get. Supply, that's excess stock will overwhelm demand and the market will have to digest all this new stock. Can it? I think not. And I'm worried well in advance because if we get a bunch of these deals, lots of other stocks will have to be sold so the potential buyers can raise the cash to participate in the big IPOs. Older stock stocks in your portfolio will get hammered because that's the only way the buyers can raise money. That's what happened in 2000. It happened again in 2014, and very few people saw it coming. We actually saw the same thing happen at the end of 2021. There aren't that many people. Remember those declines from 2000, 2014, and how people lost fortunes because so many existing stocks had to get sold to raise money to buy these giant IPOs and these deals that I'm talking about much bigger than that. This shift won't happen for a while, but these megadeals are the biggest looming threat to the bull, and I want to tell you about it now so you aren't blindsided when it potentially leads us to the slaughterhouse, you now know the risk. You will be better prepared for the impact of deals the likes of which we never thought possible. I like to say, as always, bull market somewhere. I promise you to find it just for you right here on Man Money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.

[D]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer hi, I'm Lewis.

[B]

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