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Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. Other people My friends, I'm just trying to save you a little money here. My job's not just entertain, but I'm going to educate. I'm going to explain everything tonight because it's crazy out there. Call me 1-873CBC. Tweet me. ImKramer. Be nice. The clients win, the purveyors lose. Hardware companies triumph, Software companies shrivel up and die. Industrials profit. Enterprise service companies wilt sell, sell, sell. The result Yet a day like today where The Dow tumbled 167 points, S&P plunged 0.84%, Nasdaq pumping 1.43%, which seems horrendous but was much worse for the stocks of any connected with the once love cohort that was software. Is it really that simple? The market spoke up today and said yes, everything software must be thrown Anything remotely connected to software is suspect, including companies that just collect data. But any client, a bank, a consumer packaged goods company, an industrial company is golden. At least for now. Even if their earnings aren't so hot. Maybe you should have seen this coming. In the last two months, we've seen lots of different high quality enterprise software stocks. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe Report really good numbers only to watch their stocks wither and get blown away. The market has collectively spoken. The pin action is awful. These companies either produce software that can be replaced by something that's made by AI, or at the very least I can cut into their user base. Which is which matters because these cloud software companies typically charge by what's known as per seat. Never mind. None of this has actually happened yet. Wall Street's convinced that it's going to happen because of AI. Wall street is a prediction machine and the prediction for software holders, the House of Pain. Now, we thought that some types of software were immune, like infrastructure software companies like Datadog, MongoDB, oh, they were so popular and favorite analysts were always recommending these things. Atlassian, I mean they could do no wrong. What I didn't count on was a story about how Anthropic, an AI service dedicated for businesses, business to business we call it, has developed programs to help automate legal work. And they're starting to make inroads at law firms. We've seen these before, but nothing ever caught fire. My contacts indicate that most law firms still don't trust these programs, and I don't blame them. But this story somehow resonated with the market. Anthropic's work was the first truly convincing product that some thought would cause the big layoffs that make bringing in the product worthwhile. Anthropic is a loved AI system. While there were many straws on the camel, that was the one that broke the camel's back. Now, most of what we've seen today does seem like panic selling with some buying of the companies that pay for software. Everyone from Procter and Gamble, which had a bad quarter, but it's way up FedEx, Union Pacific. Any company that spends a lot of technology on a lot of technology, especially software, is winning right now. But there are others who see this pattern. They decide to avail themselves of ETFs that allow them to short the heck and out of software, such as the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF or the IGV as it is known. How would you like to be known as ig? Hi, I'm igv. The ones with the biggest weighties in that fund, with the exception of Palantir, which reported a terrific quarter today, were obliterated, laid to waste the top 10, including Palantir are all familiar names. Listen to this. Microsoft down 3%. You know, that's already been hammered a lot. Salesforce down 7%. I can't look at it anymore. Oracle down 3%. Intuit down 11%. Hey, I like my taxes with Intuit. App loving down 4%. Whatever happened, that's app 8 now. Adobe down 7. Whoa, notes. So great. Palo Alto Networks down 5. CrowdStrike down almost 4%. And ServiceNow I knew or when down 7%. What do we do with this list? Are the declines overdone or are all of these enterprise software plays about to be rendered obsolete thanks to our artificial intelligence? As usually it's a little more nuanced. I'm of two minds here. One is to say we ought to take advantage of their sale to pick up the other tech stocks that are being dragged down by the blunt force instrument that is this etf. For example, you know what we did today? We bought CrowdStrike for the travel Trust. This is a cybersecurity company. It shouldn't, it shouldn't be in the enterprise software cohort. But it's being brought down by that stupid etf. The idea that somehow someone is going to use AI to create a software company that, that identifies and stops bad guys from North Korea and Albania just ain't going to happen. I'm calling that fanciful. I have no idea how CrowdStrike got in this stupid ETF in the first place. It doesn't belong there. And the makers of the index should know better. But they're faceless people. They hide behind the index. We'll never know who they are. How do they live with themselves? Well, probably pretty easily and make a lot of money. But the other mind says you can't jump in front of a speeding freight train. All aboard. Far better. Just own the stocks of companies with big software spending that can presumably save fortunes. Public companies that can begin to take out Wells Fargo. They just hired a technologist from Amazon Web Services. Help the bankers find the hidden savings. That's a winner. Oddly for the vast plurality of the punished companies, there have been and maybe won't there have been, but I haven't seen them any big estimate cuts. What's happening is simply that their price earnings multiples are shrinking. Something I painstakingly explain in the chapter about shrinking price earnings multiples and how to make money in any market. Wall Street's paying less and less for these earnings and the earnings aren't going away, they're just paying less for them because that's what you do when you're worried about the future. The problem with a shrinking price earnings multiple is that you don't know how low it can go. Will Salesforce trade down to 14? How about 13? How about 12 times earnings? I have no idea. Same with workday. Roper Technologies used to be a hardware company. Now it's a collection of ho hum enterprise software businesses. How could they do that to themselves? Many of these software stocks have almost no natural defenses, little to no dividends and not much in the way of buyback. They're poor little lambs who have lost their way. Sell, sell, sell. One more thought. You saw a lot of private equity stocks get hammered today. That's because many of them own enterprise software companies that want to come public. That window is now close. We don't want any more of those. There are already too many of them. Way too many. And by the way, who understands what half of them do? And that includes people work there. The bottom line bulls have to hope that the software stocks have no contagion. Theoretically, right now they don't. They shouldn't. There are winners, the users and losers the providers. Logic says the pain will not spread beyond this cohort. But then again, markets aren't always logical. Let's take calls. How about we go to Ian in Florida? Ian, hey.
