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This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update Wherever you get your podcast My mission
Jim Cramer
is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a mo market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. My friends, I'm just trying to save a little bit of money here. My job is not just to entertain days like today. I got to do some teaching because these are hard. Call me 1-800-743-CBC-Treatment Jim Cramer we're all armchair generals now, aren't we? Whenever I talk to people about the stock market these days, they don't want to talk stocks or even sectors. They just want to jabber on and on about whether the Iranians or our president mean it. Whatever meaning it actually entails. The war decided the markets fade again today with The Dow tumbling 4 to 69 points, S&P plunging 1.74%, but the Nasdaq plummeting 2.38%. It was a truly hideous session as sellers anticipated a deadline pass and heavy bombing over the weekend. But after the close, the President said that at the request of the Iranians, he said that he is going to extend the negotiations another 10 days and said the talks were going well. The amateur military strategist rolled over President that parsoned those words again, wondering if the Iranians really did ask for an extension and are the talks really going well? The the armchair generals tell me that the Marines are ready to go, the 82nd Airborne is in play. These vertical warriors are telling me that the Iranians aren't going to open the Strait of Hormuz no matter what no matter how hard the US bombs them after the pause. Because there'll be no agreement. Look, I'm not a military strategist periodic. I play one on tv. However, I am your stock tactician and I can recognize an ugly market when I see it. The question we keep asking ourselves is at what point can we buy things without needing to worry about about an Iran induced oil shock dragging the whole thing down? Or do we have to keep selling and selling? Tonight we're profiling Chewy, for instance, the online pet supply store and Lemonade, the insurance underwriter. Those might be worth buying now that they've come down dramatically. Right, but you'd be threading the needle because barring an unlikely act of capitulation by Iran, we're not going anywhere. Except maybe down. Oops, there goes that armchair general thing again. There are literally thousands of stocks in the same boat as Chewy Lemonade. Bad with war, good with peace. No matter what, though, the bottom is out of our hands, we can't control it. Witness tonight when the President moved the goalposts again. We just shrugged. That's all we can do. So you know what I'm going to do tonight? I'm going to turn the whole process upside down and think about what the war really means to someone who's simply trying to build a portfolio. We know we can't predict the outcome and we can't control it. We can't predict the timing either, as tonight's bombing pause extension shows. But we can gauge is whether the stocks we like have much of a connection to war. Are they just going down because of the market more? Are they going down because something's wrong? Look, there are ample reasons to believe that the war is just going to drag on. The President keeps saying over and over again that he's going to wind the war up soon, even as he also talks about a possible ground invasion. We have to assume for the moment that the conventional wisdom is right. So let's deal with the hand we've been dealt. Why don't we pick an obvious stock and work through the process? A stock that everyone I know is selling. A stock that people are getting. Giving up on a stock that hurt all day is done. Done. Let's talk in video. Yes. Let's match it against a checklist that could actually, in an unemotional way, determine whether it's worth buying before we get clarity on when the war will end. Stock fell $7 or 4% today and it's truly hideous session. All I heard today was Nvidia and its compadres. I've hit a watershed moment and they are finished and you've got to sell every single one of them. I heard that over and over and over again, which makes me say, do we buy them? First we have to ask, is Nvidia stock down because of the war? I contend the war is something to do with Nvidia, but it's not totally quantifiable. I will posit this and it is a big, big part of the stock market itself. It's also the easiest stock in the world to trade. I think it's going down because it's so easy to get back in at a lower level. Nvidia is a member of the depressing Mag 7. But are we really supposed to switch, say to the Chem7, an exclusive list of companies that will benefit in a long war? A list of my old friend Frank Mitch from Fermi suggests by Chemores by selling these Dow Huntsman, Lyondale, Basel, Basel, Olentronics. There we go, that's what you want. Sell Mag 7, buy those. Just go ahead, do it for me. Do you think they're more magnificent than in video? That they are levered to the Middle east destruction? So therefore they're as good as gold? No, better because gold was down today. Right now the chem 7 are easier to own than in video. There's no doubt about that. They only work though at the worst days on a petrochemical facilities in the Gulf keep getting bombed. Nvidia, on the other hand, works regardless of what's happening with Iran. At least their business does. The Chem 7 has a shelf life that could be two weeks, especially if the Iranians simply give in. Nvidia. I don't see a foreseeable shelf life other than when the journalists and the commentators tell me to sell it. Next, is video down because interest rates are going up largely because of war related inflation. Totally possible. Company will do better with lower rates because lower rates make it easier to build more data centers. That said, if the war ends soon and we have a new Fed chief, you'll feel like a moron for staying away from Nvidia. You'll say, why did I watch that show? Third, is there an intrinsic reason Nvidia might be down? That's incorrect. I think that's true. Right now the tech industry is short on what we call compute and it's also short on memory. That means it's short the computers that have Nvidia inside, they need more. Nvidia need hundreds of thousands more. Nvidia chips to meet the demand. But at the same time memory chips separate have been going up in price and that's hurt the sales of the adjacent products that also go to a server like a video. The non memory chips including Nvidia chips haven't sold as well as they could because the high cost of memory means business businesses can't afford all the machines they like. In the last few days though, we've been hearing about a new technology Google has that obviates the need for huge amounts of memory chips. Not Nvidia chips, memory chips. If there's anything that alleviates the tightness of memory, then we have less reason to worry that Nvidia sales will be hurt by a memory shortage. In other words, it's a positive, not a negative. It's ridiculous how the stock is acting at least in reference to the Google issue that says that's a buy in video right into the teeth of this decline. Next item. How about oil in various data centers run most on natural gas, which is us basin is rarely budged so no its computers could be impact. Its customers could be impacted absolutely. But everything you use for Nvidia is considered mission critical. So I'm not concerned. Then you have to ask yourself why do you want to own anything that is so obviously going lower? Who would be such a glutton of for punishment? The answer there. There's only one. A shocking surprise. Deal with Iran could turn this thing around immediately. And you're there for you're afraid to miss it. Anything's possible. President announced the extension right tonight. What if he had said the strait will be open this weekend. There'll be no nukes. The war is over. You think you could buy in video at 172? Good luck. Finally we need to know is there anything about demand here that could be dropping off? War or not, it's conceivable that sovereign capital from the global wolf is drying up. And that's finance of data centers. A private credit's involved with data centers. But last week I attended the invaded GTC conference and I learned the demand is incredibly strong. That's like five days ago. What does the evidence cut to? I take the Chem7 right now over buying in video tomorrow but depending upon what happens these next 10 days, I might be done with the chemicals. I won't be done with Nvidia. Is there more to the process? Oh, I wish there were. But to me you're only being given a chance to buy a high quality stock at a lower price than you normally expect. Because everyone's saying it's a watershed moment and it's finished. You can't time it. Don't forget that you can always buy more lower because actually shocking Nvidia does get cheaper as the stock goes down. Here's the bottom line. All things equal, I'd wait on Nvidia. I don't want the Chem 7 either, though. Let's just say you are too early on one and too late on the other. But I'd rather be early than late any day of the week, even this week. Let's go to Tony in Florida, please. Tony.
Caller/Viewer
Hey, Jim. I want to thank you. You sent me a book that you signed and I really don't read, but that made me keep on reading and I really appreciate that.
Jim Cramer
You're kind. You're very kind. Thank you. I hope you're at the meeting tomorrow at noon. We're gonna talk about a lot of the stuff that we're going over tonight, but in much better.
Caller/Viewer
I will never miss a meeting unless I'm working. But Fridays, I'm usually off, so.
Jim Cramer
You're like my daughter, never admitting. She always tells me, best one yet. But that's what Pop told me for 40 years. So let's go to work.
Caller/Viewer
Okay.
Podcast Host/Announcer
Yeah.
Caller/Viewer
This stock I bought three times as it went down, down, down. And I don't think it's going to get hit with the stuff with Iran. And it's from. It's a metronic mdt.
Jim Cramer
I have to tell you, I was surprised that Medtronic got back down to the high 80s. I think that everything they've been doing lately is right. I think you've got a good one. By the way. It's 15 times earnings as far as inexpensive. I would buy more. Tony, I know it sounds like you're just averaging down into oblivion, but I think it's a great level. And thank you for those kind comments. I mean, I'm really trying to do something out here. It was a hard day. Jeff and I were talking all day. We were concerned. Ben Stoed. Because we don't want to lose anybody money. But we've tried to make people a lot of money over time. We're just going to keep trying to do that. It's the only thing I know how to do. All things being equal. I want to wait right now when it comes to the market, including a video. But I know I want to be in it long term. That does matter. Remember, long term. Oh, man. Buddy, tonight is a consolidation going to impact the legacy players in cybersecurity or is wall street blowing it out of proportion? Doing a lot of a lot of other things being blown out of proportion. I'm checking with crowdstrike to get the latest in situation and Chewy is at the cheapest it's ever been. So is it time to get into this name? I'm going to get the company's recent earnings give you my take pets. Are they going to 10 days pets? No 10 days? Oh no. Pets will still be here after the work and I enabled insurance company lemonade has seen a big pullback lately on buy. Don't miss my excuse for the CEO. Smart fella. So stay with Kramer.
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George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Men are struggling with their mental health
Jim Cramer
at some of the highest rates we've
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George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
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George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
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Jim Cramer
Lately the whole cybersecurity cohort has been under pressure from worries about AI driven disruption. That's why even though we got some big announcements this week at rsa, that's the world's largest cybersecurity conference, many of these stocks continue to get hit. Take CrowdStrike, which we own for the channel Trust and have for a long time. At the conference this week, CrowdStrike rolled out a bunch of announcements related to what they called the Agentic Security Operations center soc. They're using AI agents to automate detection, investigation and response, allowing the platform to respond to cyber threats faster than human teams ever could. What does this mean for the stock? Let's check in with George Kurtz. He's the founder and CEO of CrowdStrike to find out. Mr. Kurtz, welcome back to Mad Money.
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Great to be here, Jim.
Jim Cramer
Thank you, George. Look, I want to know, let's just cut right to it. At the highest level, should investors think about AI as a disruption risk to cybersecurity vendors like you, or as the single biggest long term demand driver that the sector has ever seen?
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well, it's the latter, Jim. I can tell you after a full week of meetings with some of the largest Fortune 100 companies around the world, there is no more important topic than cybersecurity and the protection of the agentic world that they're living in today. And one of the things that was obviously clear to me in every single meeting, I couldn't be more excited coming out of this week was they said, george, we want you and CrowdStrike to help U.S. agents. We want you to protect our agents. And the tip of the spear for the agentic revolution is now the endpoint. That's where Claude Code runs. That's where Open Claw runs. That's where all this agentic technology runs. And they need to get a handle on protecting it, providing governance and observing it. And I said, what is your number one outcome? They said, our number one outcome is we can deploy AI faster because our executives and our boards tell us to go faster. And it's the compliance and it's the security that's slowing us down. And they're looking for a solution from CrowdStrike.
Jim Cramer
Let's talk about compliance for a second. If I run in compliance at a major firm and I were to hire Anthropic, and then Anthropic would also say, you know what, I can also do your cybersecurity. Would a compliance officer ever say that you can do both?
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well, there's always this concept of church and state, as you know. Right. And what that means is if someone's actually providing a service, you have a third party, some independent firm, could be auditors, it could be a firm like CrowdStrike. That's, that's providing a third party view and protection around it. And when you look at some of the LLM in the frontier models, they're very good at finding vulnerabilities in code. But that isn't real time prevention. That isn't stopping breaches. So this is why there is a long and large tailwind in the security market right now. I have never seen RSA so busy and so excited. Given the pace of change that has been taking place just from October, things have rapidly changed and we're now in the agentic era. You know, first obviously it was Jenny, I, then it was reasoning and now it's all about the agents and protecting those agents and getting work done. And we're at the tip of the spear in helping customers do that.
Jim Cramer
I do have a problem here, George. I listened to you and I totally agree with you. I talked to Jensen Wong about it last week. He actually just said exactly what you did. And, and he said because we have outfits like CrowdStrike, we can afford to have claw and all these different agents running around. And then when I speak to people on Wall street, they're also scared. Is that because they haven't done the homework or because maybe some of these companies that are talking about like a databricks, maybe they're just very good at convincing people that they can take over your work.
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well Jim, I've been doing this for 30 plus years. I've seen companies come and go. I've seen all kinds of solutions. And what I can tell you is security is really hard. You need incredible domain expertise and you need to focus on it. And if you're a company that's doing all kinds of different things and then security is a sideline or you know, part time opportunity for you, you're never going to be as good as a company like CrowdStrike. Every day we get up and we think about how do we make sure we stop the breach. And that's what customers are buying, they're buying the outcome. And when you think about some of these other solutions that are being put together, I sat down with a CIO and they said yeah, maybe we can, you know, put some stuff together and make it work, you know, by using vive coding. But the problem is they never fund it for the next 10 years of maintenance. I think Wall street has forgotten about the fact that you have to maintain it, you have to update it, you have to support it, you have to sell it and you have to be there when a customer has a problem to make sure you stand behind your technology. And that's why I think the security industry's got a fantastic future ahead of it.
Jim Cramer
I agree with you again, but I would say that there's a perception that there's someone at Anthropic you can Call maybe the CEO when there's a problem, when the CEO would know absolutely nothing and you would have all the data.
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well, when you look at the labs that are out there, you know, they've created incredible technology. Most security companies are leveraging them in some fashion and I think it will be a big part of helping power the security industry. But at the end of the day, you have to be a net data creator and you have to have the proprietary data that allows you to train these models, which is what we've built up over the last decade. Plus, and again, if you're not in the business and you're not totally thinking about security and you don't see all the threats from 176 plus countries that we're actually in, it's very difficult to be in the path to stop the breach. You know, it's not about reporting on it, it's about stopping it. And that's what customers are paying for. And that's why we've been so successful. We talked about it in our last call after our quarterly results records up and down tailwinds across every part of our business. And again, it's just been confirmed with a week of meetings at rsa. And every, every enterprise meeting is how can you help us? You've got the technology and we're looking for a platform player like CrowdStrike to do it.
Jim Cramer
I know we bought stock for the Chapel Trust if you said that because we just couldn't figure out why people aren't listening. But I think there's a lot of fear. The fear I think should be against the bad guys. A major medical device company that I know, I don't even feel like it's fair to mention their name suddenly was blanketed with an Iranian title on its building. I mean, to me this is the kind of thing if you can't stop that you don't have cybersecurity.
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well, right now in this geopolitical environment, it is the wild, wild west and it's incredibly dangerous. And you see everything from nation state attacks to E crime to hacktivism. And the challenge that we're facing is that the window that a defender has has dramatically been compressed because of the AI adversary. You don't need to be all that sophisticated. You just need to leverage the models that are out there. We demoed some of this at the show in a matter of minutes. You know, one prompt can take down an entire company because you can automate the entire attack sequence and you don't need the expertise that you needed in the past. You can look like a nation state adversary and you could be a teenager in your basement doing this. It's incredible. And this is why there are so many attacks that are out there and why companies really need to be prepared.
Jim Cramer
I know that I've been, I'm actually kind of fired up about this because I'm tired of hearing one after another saying they're in your business. I don't want to do short shrift to your, to the things you announced at rsa, which I think are very significant for shareholders in your company. Yeah.
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
Well, if you think about what we announced this week, one of the big things that we were excited about was something called agentworks where our customers are able to create their own security agents on the data, the rich data set that we have across our platform and our next gen security sim to do tasks on behalf of their own humans. And this unleashes the power of our platform, unleashes the power of our data. But more importantly, you have to get a deterministic outcome. This is one of the hardest things to do in the agent world because every time you run an agent or every time you actually do something, you might get a different result. We have guardrails, we have boundaries. And they're trained in the business of security. Our customers are excited about it and I think this certainly will be a game changer for the industry.
Jim Cramer
Well, I'm glad you got that in my, my bad that I just insist on trying to swat some of these things down. But this is all I hear about and I think you put an end to it right here, right now. And people remember that. That's George Kirsty, CEO of CrowdStrike. It's a big position for my child with us. We're going to be talking about again tomorrow at our conference. Mad Money's back after the break. Thank you.
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Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Sit.
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Stay. Kramer. Fetching the key takeaways from Chewy's quarter. Next,
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Jim Cramer
Yesterday morning we got a solid set of results from Chewy, the online pet supply retailer. The Stock immediately jumped 13% response, part because it had been beaten down for the past 10 months, so it didn't take all that much to generate a rebound. This stock has been a real rollercoaster since it came public in 2019. Chewy caught fire during the pandemic, like all e commerce, then plummeted once we got past Covid, with the stock bottoming in the mid teens in April of 2024 nearly two years ago. We had gotten positive on the story just before that when CEO Sumit Singh came on Mad Money at the end of 2023. Why did we get Prosper? You know, he sounded so confident about the company's ability to grow and take share even in the post pandemic era. It was a great cause. Chewy then tripled from its lows, peaking at $48 and change last summer. But since last summer, Chewy's turned into a the house of Pain, sliding steadily lower down more than 50% overall by the time the stock reaches lows this Thursday. I'm sorry, this Tuesday. The frustrating thing about this move is that it's hard to explain. Chewy's consistently put up robust revenue growth and rising profitability. They've been generous about buying back their own stock. Business was good, but for whatever reason, the stock simply hasn't been working. I think it's fear of competition and a general lack of confidence in the consumer. Honestly, I've been wrong about this one repeatedly over the past few months. Every time I tried to defend it Based on the fundamentals, the stock just punches me in the face. Know what? I even discussed this one with Rob Pace. This is the CEO of 100X. Last Friday, Chewy had Screen Positive as one of 100X's best MVP names. That actually stands for more value for price. This is one of the rare MVP names with a stock that's been an underperformer. If I thought it might be an opportunity. Sure enough, when Chewy reported yesterday morning, the results were fine. Not quite. Technically this was a small top and bottom line miss in their main operating metrics were pretty much just in line. But given how badly the stock had been trading, that was enough to send it much much higher. Now Chewy's net sales effectively match expectations growing 0.5% year over year. Though it's more like 8% if you exclude an extra from the year ago period. Their gross margin grew 90 basis points year over year. That's not bad. Models ahead of expectations even though their earnings before interest taxes and depreciation amortization grew at a 30% clip. Very impressive. Their earnings per share still missed by a penny. But Chewy key performance indicators were solid. Active customers grew 4% year over year. That's over yet the big number 21.3 million. That's slightly ahead of expectations by the way. While net sales per active customer were up over 2% year over year. We have no many customers. That's a big deal. Autoship sales were up almost 5%. Auto ship now represents a terrific 84% of the business. We like that because it's sticky. All these numbers were solid, even if some lines were a hair too light versus what Wall street was looking for. What really matters though is that Chewy gave solid guidance for the current quarter and a very bullish full year forecast for the current quarter. Management's talking about 7 to 8% revenue growth with 40 to 45 cents of earnings share per share. The analysts were looking for 41 for the full year. Get this to project the 8 to 9% revenue growth nicely higher than expected with a very strong EBITDA margin. So again, decent results from Chewy with even better guidance. But what really got the stock moving yesterday was the story told by CEO Sumit Singh on the conference call. Singh took a different tact entirely than usual, starting his prepared remarks not with a discussion of the quarterly results, but instead offering a broader perspective on the pet industry and Chewy's market position in general. Singh didn't try to claim that the broader pet business was going gangbusters. I'm glad he didn't. He said they expect the pet category in 2026 to look a lot like it did last year, stable and durable. But and I'm going to quote here, without cyclical acceleration, current industry estimates expect low single digit growth, he said, with dogs at the lower end and cats at the higher end. Most of the growth is expected to come from volumes, not price. But Singh remains very bullish on Chewy of course, despite that lukewarm outlook for the industry, saying first that he expects the industry to continue its secular shift towards E commerce quote as consumers increasingly prioritize convenience, transparency and auto replenishment, end quote More importantly, he thinks that Chewy can keep taking market share thanks to its quote differentiated flywheel like operating model, end quote where well over 80% of sales are now auto ship orders and the business is supported by a world class fulfillment network delivering best in class consumer satisfaction. Now we know Chewy added 150,000 200,000 active customers per quarter last year and Singh thinks it can keep putting up similar numbers. He also thinks that they can continue to grow net sales per active customer as they've been doing for the past several years. For perspective, that metric stood at about $360 in 2019 when the two weekend public. Now it's nearly 600 hundred dollars. At the same time, Chewy also expects its margins will continue to move higher thanks to modernized fulfillment centers and the use of AI helping Chewy to structurally lower its overall costs. All that said, you wouldn't appreciate why this was a good quarter for Chewy if you only looked at the analyst reactions to the report because most lowered the price targets for this. That's right, lower pt. But honestly, I wouldn't read too much into that. Most of the analysts were hung with high price targets in the 40s or 50s when the stock was in the 20s. So they were just using the quarter as an excuse to get their targets more in line with reality. This street has 22 buy ratings, 7 holds and 0 sells on chewy and the new average price Target stands at $40 and change. That's still up more than 50% from where the stock is currently trading. Instead, I think Chuy's 13% gain yesterday, which was followed by another 1.7% gain today in a really terrible market, was the right read on the quarter. This was a solid set of numbers from Chewy with a better outlook and perhaps most importantly, a reaffirmation of the company's long term plan which will lead to continued market share growth and steadily expanding profits. Here's the bottom line. I know Chewy's had a rough run for the past six months, but here with the stock selling for just 17 times this year's earnings estimates, with this kind of growth, the cheapest it's ever been, I think you're getting a great chance to do some buying. Even after yesterday's big bounce, Chewy story remains firmly on track. And I bet yesterday's move is merely the beginning of a longer and larger rally. Let's take questions. Let's go to Robert, New York.
Caller/Viewer
ROBERT Jim, I want to thank you very much for guiding us through these tough times right now. And I tell everybody, you tell everybody, don't panic. And you're right. And you know what you said the other day? You said, nibble away. Close your eyes and nibble away. And when you're going to panic, where you're going to panic, you do one thing. You go and read the book how to Make Money in Any Market.
Jim Cramer
That's what this book is for. ROBERT thank you. But recognize it. It's about the idea of not panicking, about having a strategy, about nibbling, about staying in the game. I've written other books before. They were never as clear cut as this one, and right now we need it. I'm glad you reckon.
Caller/Viewer
This is fabulous. Anyway, let's get to business because I know your time is precious. So this next company, this next company is the largest dollar store operator by annual sales and total store count. They operate over 20,000 stores around the U.S. they have a plan to open up another 450 new stores in the U.S. jimbo, and 10 in Mexico. They're remodeling the stores. They're relocating the stores. You got a new CEO in there that is absolutely fabulous. I did my homework, Jerry JJ Freeman, and you still got the other guy, Voss. Okay? Now, the name of this company, which I think is going to go much higher, and you and I, you and I have always agreed 99% of the time, JIM and I respect you, but I think this stock goes much higher. Dollar General.
Jim Cramer
Yes, yes. ROBERT because they pick they're trying to expand really well in food, and they picked a guy who, who is managed a lot of great, I mean, really great grocery chains and done a terrific job. I say yes to Dollar General. It's also kind of the right environment for Dollar General. And thank you for the kind comments about the book, which is about these kinds of moments. I'll talk about it again tomorrow at the club meeting. Chewy story is firmly on track people. I think yesterday's move is the beginning of a larger rally. And yes, I didn't get you out of 47 and I regret that. But I like this company very much. Much more bunny hip hop including my exclusive with insurance company Lemonade. Then there's a strange trend happening in this market and the stocks of some of my recent guests are proving it. I'm telling you what it is and how to fight it. Of course. All your calls, Rapid Fire. Tonight's digital lighting round. So stay with Great. Look, it's a tough market. We're asking everybody about stocks but the real companies under two. What do we make of the recent action purchases in the stock of Lemonade, the insurance technology company that uses AI to set its policies? Here's a stock that came public with a bang in 2020, then languished a bit after the pandemic, going through the meat grinder like so many others in 2021, 2022 and then spending the next couple of years moving sideways. But over the past 18 months, as people recognize the value of AI Lemonade's growth has accelerated while its losses have shrunk and the stock climbed from the mid teens to a high of just under $100 earlier this year. Now of course as the market got choppy in recent months as things pulled back just under 66 today, like many other stocks, I got to tell you, I think it's a belly story. So let's take a closer look at Daniel Schreiber is the co founder, chairman and CEO of Lemonade. Bishop Schwaber. Welcome back to Mad Money.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Wonderful to be with you.
Jim Cramer
Thank you Daniel. Now I've got to tell you I went through my doc, I like to do a lot of studying before I see a guest and I polled the office and of course my office is made up majority of young people says anyone uses Lemonade. And I realized right then I am still someone who has an agent who uses the old fashioned way. I'm kind of like the State Farm ad so to speak. But everybody use you. So can you explain to me why people are so confident that they use that There isn't a young person I couldn't find that doesn't use you and how they heard of you.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
You absolutely right. Something like 90% of our customers are first time buyers of insurance. So while our market share is growing across the board among first time buyers of insurance, we may be the number one brand in many states today. We are and I would put it to you that the best predictor of future Market share is market share today among the new entrants into the market. So it's really fabulous news for Lemonade.
Jim Cramer
Well, I have to tell you, when I looked over some of your blogs, I realized that one of the things that is in your favor is this happens to be a very high bound industry. How much has it really changed in the last hundred years?
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Well, something like 11 or 12 of the Fortune 100 are insurance companies and the average age is over 100 years old. So this is really an industry that came of age during the horse drawn carriage era and has really managed to or the industrial revolution, has managed to largely ignore every revolution since is still dominated by companies that were really architect for a different time. And here we are in the era where things are moving at a just staggering pace. Lemonade was founded as an AI company not when ChatGPT launched, but back in 2015. A founding motto was artificial intelligence, not artificial delays. So we were really created for this moment. We are moving at an absolutely stunning pace, accelerating. We've had nine quarters of successive acceleration of our growth. We've seen our gross 10x since ChatGPT came out. So we really flying right now. Lemonade is on attack.
Jim Cramer
When I looked at your website, which was incredibly easy and very intuitive, I noticed for instance, if I wanted pet insurance, I think I could have got shorter time than it would even take a phone call.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
That's absolutely right. Average time to buy a renter's insurance is about a minute and a half. I once googled it. It's about half as long as it takes to get a latte at Starbucks. So this is really becoming a very easy process. And it's one thing to sell you insurance in as little as a minute or two in your pajamas, any time of day or night. But we pay claims in a similar way. So most of our claims are handled without human contact. And as little as one or two seconds. You just hold the device up, you speak to the screen, you describe what happened, you take photos if you need to. And for the majority of our customers, they will never have to interact with a person. They'll get their claim paid pretty much instantly.
Jim Cramer
Those of us who are skeptical a little bit of human nature would want to know how many people have tried to defraud you doing that.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Sure. And fraud is a big deal in insurance. We do a couple of things to contend with that. There's quite a lot that we do in terms of our social impact. We are a B corp a lot of our money at the end of the year that's leftover is given to nonprofits of our customers choosing. We do a lot to try and neutralize some of the worse conflicts of interest. Because the fraud in insurance is different than the kind of hard fraud you think about. It's not gangs from across the seas. It's people like you and me who are upstanding citizens in other aspects of our lives. But something about the insurance experience brings the devil out in us. So we've been working with behavioral economists since our founding. But beyond that, artificial intelligence is actually stunningly good at detecting any kind of aberrations in the documents, in the videos, in the claims history, in the credit card that you used. So I think we're actually very well positioned. The human interaction is not better at fraud detection. It's actually inferior.
Jim Cramer
Well, let me ask you one last question, and it's very important. I know that you're a native. Your examples are filled with companies even like a great company like Geico, okay, tremendous company where they say, you know, they're dabbling AI, but what's the. To keep an anthropic or what's. What's to keep an open air to say, you know, this Daniels making a fortune, let's just go in against them.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Sure. And people used to ask us that same question about a Google or an Amazon. And there are pretty good reasons why they stay clear. You can vibe code and pretty soon, you know, you'll be able to just tell your Claude agent, hey, code me an app that's similar to Lemonade. That kind of capability is coming not so much to incumbents because they've got this legacy hanging around their neck like an albatross. And that's difficult to get out of. But if you start fresh, like you're saying, the software doesn't become the big obstacle. But unlike the SAS players who are in such trouble, Lemonade is not about software alone. We need regulation. You need a lot of capital and you need tons of data. We have collected over the course of our existence, over the coming the school of hard knocks over 10 trillion of a trillion exposure data points. We've handled millions of claims. We've had machine learning search through and find the multivariate relationships between each of those nuanced claims. So there's no shortcut to just selling policies, getting claims, then having the machine learning do its work. And we are now coming out of that massive investment period. You know, we've become cash flow positive, will become EBITDA positive later this year. So you're really seeing all of those Investments pay off big time.
Jim Cramer
I have to tell you this may be the kind of stock you buy in one of these sell offs. The sell off has nothing to do obviously with what you're doing. You're just continuing to progress. Offer great, you know offer people great service at a great price and that's a terrific thing to do. I want to thank Daniel Schreiber. He's the co founder CEO of Lemonade. Thank you for coming coming us coming to us and come back because I think that now that I realize that everybody usually maybe maybe I have to switch myself excellent too.
Daniel Schreiber (Lemonade CEO)
Thank you.
Jim Cramer
Thank you. Me and Buddy's back at the coming
Podcast Host/Announcer
up Kramer takes your calls and the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round next.
Jim Cramer
It is time. It's time for the white round. Christmas rock of course. Bye bye bye. So I'll sit in the cars ahead of time. I stand for instant grabbers. So fly plan the sound and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Stink that tonight Clear your mind Bob. It matches Bob.
Caller/Viewer
Hey Sam.
Jim Cramer
Greetings from Massachusetts.
Caller/Viewer
You get a lot of people up here.
Jim Cramer
The company I'm calling about is is
Caller/Viewer
Canadian natural gas producer record earnings last quarter 5% dividend.
Jim Cramer
The name of the country symbol is BET. Wondering your thoughts? You know what look you could get the same you get a terrific return. Not it's not the same turn only a Chevron I would rather see in something that's really much more name brand. I just feel better about that. Let's go to fred and Luc, L.A. fred.
Caller/Viewer
Hey Jim, I enjoyed meeting you recently at the New Orleans Book Fest.
Jim Cramer
Oh wasn't that great? Walter is together such a great thing. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Caller/Viewer
Hey, I wanted your take on a stock that has performed really well over the past year. Do you think that Tower Semiconductor still
Jim Cramer
has more room to run? I would actually do what they call schnitzel. I would take a little off just because it's had it's a parabolic move in the last few weeks but otherwise I think you're fine. Let's go to William in Kentucky. William, do you have ski daddy gym too?
Caller/Viewer
I have a question about Reddit.
Jim Cramer
Yes, Reddit went down today because of these lawsuits. I'm going to take these lawsuits on in very heavy fashion soon. I want to buy Reddit right here. I have to buy it gingerly because what happens is this stock does trade in 12 point income but Reddit, these cases are going to be overturned and I'm really going to come at Hard because so many people sold J and J. When is it? 130. I've seen it so Burke in the 20s. I'm not going to let this happen this time. I am going to make people understand that there's two sides to every story. Let's go to Bill in Massachusetts.
Caller/Viewer
Bill, Jimbo, my friend, I was looking
Jim Cramer
into Eris Mining Corporation.
Caller/Viewer
Could you tell me your take on that?
Jim Cramer
Man, a Vancouver miner is always going to be way too speculative. You're never going to see me recommend a Vancouver miner. They're just too hard and I've lost too much money in them over the course of multiple years. Let's go to Sam in Pennsylvania. Sam? Jim, listen.
Caller/Viewer
More and more I'm thinking that the
George Kurtz (CrowdStrike CEO)
world is going to need American LNG
Caller/Viewer
and expand Energy sits at the top of the value chain when it comes to natural gas.
Jim Cramer
This is a company that sells the
Caller/Viewer
biggest natural gas producer inside of America
Jim Cramer
and it's the key customer selling the gas into lng.
Caller/Viewer
That's Cheniere Energy. Everyone knows how well that stock is done.
Jim Cramer
So curious what you think of Exp. It's okay. I mean, I think you mentioned Cheniere. I like Cheniere more than Exe. But you know what? Look, the industry's hot and I do like the natural gas story very much. LNG in particular though. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning round.
Podcast Host/Announcer
The Lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, strong stories, weak stocks. Kramer breaks down the macro morass weighing on quality names next.
Jim Cramer
I'm calling it the macro morass. That's what we're experiencing right now with so many not so hot stocks are very good companies. Case in point, two companies we heard from yesterday's show. Paychex and General. Let's take them one at a time so I can show you how the micro morass affects you and me. John Gibson is the eloquent CEO of Paychex, A no nonsense representative of a payroll processor that's been on the show virtually since we went on the air. He told a story of strong growth with the terrific acquisition of Paycor, which has helped them beef up their medium sized business offerings. John emphasized that despite what you might think, business is very strong with a portion of the economy is doing very well. Small and medium sized businesses are Paychex's bread butter. They're also the backbone of the economy and they're much less hostage to problems overseas. But the people are still hiring and that's Paychex is spread. The stock itself seems quite fetching given Its better than expected quarter paycheck sells at a reasonable price to earnings both. 17 used to be much higher. Spectacular 4.6% dividend yield. Sounds great, right? But let me give you the bear case. The economy's slowing. You can't buy a payroll processor in a situation where the economy might end up in a recession. It has a price earnings bullet point 17, but so what? It used to be 30. Why must it stop at 17? How about 15? Is it 4.6? Yeah, but can it go to 5? Sure. That's the macro morass. It takes everything Gibson said and stands it on its head which makes the stock overvalued even as it's pulled back from 161 to 93. I think the macro morass is absurd. This should be a great stock to match the great underlying company, but I see no catalyst can put them together. So I succumb to the zeitgeist myself. I hit the don't buy button. It's finished up 23 cents today. Don't buy don't buy genre stocks More quizzical Generac, the company makes backup generators, is going great guns. It's always had a strong residential business because of the debilitated electric car grid and the increasingly erratic weather. Sure, the residential business struggled last year with rates still elevated and a light hurricane season last fall. But after some severe winter storms and with just a little help on rates, that could be much better. It's Generac's other business, the commercial business, that excites people. Generic is being pursued by many a data center builder and hyperscaler to provide backup power to their sites. CEO Aaron Yankfeld said something you always want a CEO to say that the clients are calling him and ordering things, not the other way around. Great businesses are ones where a company salespeople are simply taking orders. That's Genera. But what happens the stock was actually down 10% at one point yesterday after Generic told the story because they did announce they did not announce a long term contract from a hyperscaler at their investor day. Without that, prospective shareholders refused to pull the trigger. Although the stock had a nice jump in the afternoon after some analysts pulled it up. The fact that it was down 50 points from its high with a much better story than when it hit that exalted level meant nothing to this market because maybe the hyperscalers don't have the money to buy more Generics. Or maybe Cummins and Caterpillar, the principal fighters of backup power, are doing better and that's all the hyperscalers needed today the stock got blasted falling $7 and change. Yes, the idea that things are okay now, but just you wait. Well, that's what people are thinking. Just you wait. It's the true story behind these two stocks and hundreds of others. Only the end of the war and lower interest rates will change the macro morass. Right now, neither is in sight. So both stocks go wanting, even though in theory they make a ton of sense to own right here. I like to say there's always a bull market summer. I promise to find just for you right here on Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.
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In this episode, Jim Cramer navigates a turbulent Wall Street in the shadow of rising geopolitical tensions with Iran, analyzing how war anxiety and the "macro morass" confront even high-quality stocks. He educates listeners on portfolio tactics during uncertainty, profiles key stocks like Nvidia, Chewy, and Lemonade, hosts interviews with CEOs, and answers rapid-fire viewer questions in the Lightning Round. The episode is marked by Cramer's signature mix of teaching, fiery opinion, and practical strategy for investors confronting volatile markets.
[01:00–08:56]
[04:40–08:56]
[09:11–11:21]
Medtronic (MDT):
General Strategy in Volatile Markets:
[13:02–21:17]
[23:33–32:13]
[23:33–30:48]
[30:48–31:32]
[33:18–39:48]
[40:09–43:06]
[43:28–47:02]
For a full breakdown of Cramer's analysis and interviews, tune in starting at [01:00] for macro commentary, [13:02] for CrowdStrike, [23:33] for Chewy, [33:18] for Lemonade, and [40:09] for the Lightning Round.