Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 3/9/26

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer (3/9/26) – Episode Summary

Episode Overview

This episode of Mad Money dives into a dramatic day on Wall Street, marked by extreme swings in oil prices due to US-Iran conflict headlines. Jim Cramer analyzes the war’s impact on stocks, outlines what must occur for market stability, reviews individual stocks in the Lightning Round, and discusses significant S&P 500 reshuffling. Special segments include a deep-dive on the Robinhood Ventures Fund IPO and an interview with Realty Income CEO Sumit Roy about REIT strategy amid economic uncertainty. Cramer's tone balances urgency and caution, with a focus on educating "homegamers" and helping investors navigate volatile conditions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Market Turmoil: Oil & War with Iran

Timestamp: 01:20 – 08:59

• Cramer opens with a recap of the market's dramatic reversal: Oil spiked above $120 before plunging to the mid-80s after President Trump signaled the war with Iran was winding down.
• Despite the rally, Cramer urges caution, noting it’s not safe to say the crisis is over until the Strait of Hormuz is open and attacks on oil infrastructure cease.
• Cramer identifies four prerequisites for normalization:
  1. End attacks: Both sides must stop hitting oil and desalinization plants—key to commodity price stability and humanitarian concerns.
  2. Safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz: The flow of oil must be secured; otherwise, risk to global supply persists.
  3. Quick restoration of oil wells: Fast resumption prevents permanent loss of production capacity.
  4. Release strategic oil reserves: US and EU must release reserves and guarantee to replenish them, stabilizing prices.
• Historical context: Every significant S&P 500 drawdown since 1973 has involved oil shocks.
• Winner stocks in this environment include semiconductors (Broadcom, Micron, Nvidia), while banks struggle, and enterprise software faces AI-driven disruption.

Notable Quote:
"We are not out of the woods... It's a tall order for the war to be over, but if you want stocks to go higher, you better hope it is." — Jim Cramer [03:20]

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The Lightning Round: Caller Q&A

Timestamp: 08:59 – 12:08 & 40:07 – 43:05

• ELF Beauty: Cramer recommends holding, not switching to a riskier Core Wave [09:25].
• Bunge (BG): Hold, don't add; agri-business side is strong in current climate [10:17].
• Costco (COST): Hold after solid earnings; stock benefits from gas price spikes [11:03].
• Hamilton Lane: Avoid, overexposed to private credit [40:24].
• NBT Invent Electric: Good pick for data center infrastructure exposure [40:49].
• Agilent Technologies: No need to keep, sector is out of favor [41:13].
• Arm Holdings (ARM): Don’t sell, CEO doing a solid job, strong fundamentals [41:59].
• AppLovin: Cautious, too much platform risk from larger competitors like Google [42:23].

Memorable Moments:

• An 81-year-old fan, Norma, calls in for stock advice—Cramer’s empathy and humor shine [09:08].
• Cramer's signature “Booyah!” lights up the Lightning Round [41:29].

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S&P 500 Index Shakeup: Tech Dominance Grows

Timestamp: 13:32 – 21:03

• S&P 500 changes: Adds Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent (all data center/tech plays), and EchoStar; removes Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston, and Paycom.
• Observation: Tech sector now dominates nearly half the index, reflecting ongoing data center buildout as a core market theme.
• Insights on new entrants:
  • Vertiv: Power/cooling for data centers, up 1950% since SPAC debut.
  • Coherent & Lumentum: Fiber optics/AI infrastructure, both big winners post-Liberation Day.
  • EchoStar: Satellite play, leverages untapped spectrum value and SpaceX connections.
• Departing stocks: Each one ousted for sustained underperformance or shrinking market cap.

Notable Quote:
"Three companies to supply the data center and a satellite play that's been selling spectrum at a huge premium... I'm just glad there's a theme we can hold onto even in this time of extreme turmoil." — Jim Cramer [20:42]

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Robinhood Ventures Fund IPO: Private Markets Go Public; Reception is Tepid

Timestamp: 22:51 – 32:55

• Robinhood Ventures Fund 1 (RVI): Offers retail access to stakes in private unicorns (Databricks, Revolut, Mercury, etc).
• IPO flop: Sought to raise $1B, but only sold 12.6M shares at $25; debuted at $22 and traded down—public isn't buying the frothy late-stage valuations.
• Key structural issues:
  • Closed-end fund model is complex, lacks ETF flexibility.
  • Valuations anchored to Robinhood's appraisal, not public market willingness to pay.
  • Investors worry Robinhood bought into unicorns at already high valuations.
• Broader implications: Portends trouble for high-priced private unicorn IPOs later in 2026 (e.g., SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic).

Notable Quote:
"When Robinhood was offering shares of RBI at $25 in the IPO, investors were buying... at the price Robinhood was saying they were worth. Far less demand materialized." — Jim Cramer [27:10]

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Special Guest: REIT Strategy with Realty Income CEO Sumit Roy

Timestamp: 32:55 – 39:47

• Diversification & Stability: Realty Income (O) is up double digits YTD; CEO credits the focus on diversified essential retail, data centers, industrial, and gaming properties.
• Shift to Institutional Capital: Company built for long-term, favoring stable institutional money.
• Data Centers: Roy is bullish, citing technological necessity and long-term industry transformation despite fears of overbuilding.
• Gaming Properties: Selective investments like Encore Boston Harbor and CityCenter in Vegas have outperformed.
• Retail Chain Vulnerabilities: Realty Income's diversification reduces risk from single-chain downturns (e.g., Walgreens, Family Dollar).

Notable Quotes:

• "We are building this company for the long haul... institutional capital, long duration, open-ended structure, key to dependability." — Sumit Roy [34:04]
• "Diversification, diversification, diversification... That’s what we've built this entire portfolio on." — Sumit Roy [38:42]
• "I just like gives you the safe monthly dividend, but now you get very good outperformance." — Jim Cramer [39:27]

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Closing Take: The Psychology of Hope vs. Reality in Today’s Market

Timestamp: 44:05 – 47:41

• Cramer reflects on the pattern of late-day hope being undone by overnight futures—linked to President Trump's “unpredictability” in his second term, shifting from stock market focus to erratic policies.
• Advises viewers to recognize heightened risks and sentiment volatility, especially in fast-moving geopolitical situations.
• Stresses that a confused and hopeful investor often ends up a panicky seller.

Notable Quote:
"There’s always a bull market somewhere. I promise." — Jim Cramer [46:54]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | Oil Shock, War w/ Iran & Market Reaction | 01:20 – 08:59 | | Lightning Round (part 1) | 08:59 – 12:08 | | S&P 500 Changes/Tech Stack Analysis | 13:32 – 21:03 | | Robinhood Ventures Fund IPO & Private Market Analysis | 22:51 – 32:55 | | Realty Income CEO Interview | 32:55 – 39:47 | | Lightning Round (part 2) | 40:07 – 43:05 | | Cramer's Closing Thoughts on Sentiment & Leadership | 44:05 – 47:41 |

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Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• "Every time the S&P 500's fallen 20% or more since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, oil has been involved." — Jim Cramer [03:40]
• Energetic Lightning Round calls with fans, like "Been working like a dog. Glad that you appreciate it, makes me feel better." [09:58]
• On private markets: "Clearly people aren't that enthused about these venture capital backed startups." — Jim Cramer [29:55]
• On market psychology under Trump: "If there's going to be a surprise by Trump, it will most likely be one that is antithetical to the bulls." — Jim Cramer [45:48]

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Episode Themes

• The market remains hostage to geopolitics and oil.
• Tech/data centers are the only “safe” ongoing market theme.
• Caution is crucial: Hope or late-day rallies can be quickly dashed.
• Private market valuations face a challenging reckoning as they transition to public markets.
• Intelligent diversification (in REITs, stocks, and strategies) is key in turbulent times.

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This summary captures the tone, urgency, and critical insights from Jim Cramer and his participants, providing clear takeaways for listeners and investors navigating a turbulent financial landscape.

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Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cream America. Other people, my friends, I'm just trying to make you some money. My job is not just entertain, but to educate, to teach you. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at you Kramer. We had a dramatic turnaround in stocks today when oil, which spiked to $120 overnight, plunged to the mid-80s in the afternoon after President Trump said just before the close, the war is very complete, pretty much okay. Wall street was getting very antsy about the war with Iran, so buyers lapped it up when the White House signaled that they want to wind this thing down. A day ago we were talking unconditional surrender. This afternoon the President was crafting a one sided separate peace. Unfortunately, it might not be a decision the United States can make on its own. You need to get the Iranian someone on board. It won't be truly safe to buy stocks until the Strait of Hormuz is open to traffic. There could be no missiles coming at the tankers. There could be no more attacks on oil infrastructure desalinization plants. If that happens, we are going to go higher. It would allow us to build on the reality the rally that occurred from the bottom today with the dow ultimately gaining 239 points, SV advancing.3% and the Nasdaq jumping 1.38%. But despite the extremely bullish close, with oil cascading lower, it's possible we may not be out of the woods. Look, it's a tall order for the war to be over, but if you want stocks to go higher, you better hope it is. That's because every short, sharp run in oil prices takes a wrecking ball to the stock market. I can tick off the declines of stocks when oil goes up more than 100%. But trust me, when when I say that every time the s and P500 fallen 20% or more, dating back to the Yom Kippur War in 1973, oil has been involved. 1973 was when OPEC slapped an embargo in the United States, caused 170% spike in crude and therefore a more than 45% decline in the S&P 500. There are many similar advances in oil and subtractions in stocks through the years. They all have a similar theme. Oil goes up, stocks go down. Can the war pretty much be over? As the President said this afternoon, is peace about to break out? Which is right? The spike in oil last night or the plummet in oil this afternoon? You know, it's hard to say. But you know what? I found another way to think about it. I'm going to give you four things that need to happen no matter what before the situation can go back to normal. And remember what normal means. First, we both sides actually must stop attacking oil facilities and desalinization plants. If Israel attacks an oil depot, which they did, and I don't really understand why. And Iran will attack the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. Terrible. That's going to lead to much higher prices because it's literally knocking out production. As for the desalinization plants, waters in such short supply in the Middle east that going after those plants practically guarantees that large numbers of civilians will die of thirst. No reason for either side to escalate that far. Second, there's got to be this acceptance by Iran that the Strait of Hormuz must be free of attacks of mines, of swift boats and of drones, or the war just won't end. Think of it like this. The worst case scenario for commerce has already happened. The place that touches 20% of our oil is shot. Our government can offer insurance, but as long as the Iranians are targeting oil tankers, that attempt across the strait, nobody's going to take us that offer. And from our end, well, you can't really beat it. We always knew that if the Iranians wanted to, they could close the strait. Didn't we have a plan? I really hope there was a plan, but for the life of me, I can't figure out what the plan was. Third, not only does this trade of Moves need to be open, needs to be open soon. Because when you shut in an oil well, like many of these countries are, it might never return to the previous level of operation. You can't just flip a switch and make the well work like it did before. The faster we get them up and running again, the less long term damage there will be to production. And fourth, the US and the Europeans must start letting oil flow from the reserves. Even if the President says the war is winding down, oil's too high. But then the US has to pledge to fill it back up after the draining occurs and oils lower. It turned out that all our Permian oil, thought to be the savior of our independence, didn't really mean anything to the global oil markets. It's all committed. There's no swing factor to the Permian. But the Strategic Petroleum Reserve does slow things down. It lets the market catch its breath, which is what's needed in these situations that we wouldn't have been squeezed all the way up to 120. It keeps away the sudden short squeeze like we had in London last night because it brings out other unexpected production. Now today was an important day. It showed you that when oils in reverse you get used buying in what this semiconductor stocks like Broadcom, Micron and Nvidia. It's an amazing thing to see because there was no catalyst, just a sense that, well, you're being given one more chance to get in before the data center theme takes off again under any circumstances. I would wait to see how Oracle acts. If you go on to find out about data centers or. Oracle has made itself the king of the data center. It's the fastest grower in the space. We need to hear that there's still tremendous demand for data centers for more than just the hyperscalers and that new chips from Nvidia are going to be fabulous. Oracle can help us with that. By the way, the rally in chief Renova builder of the turbines gave me hope that this fabulous theme continues unabated. Unfortunately, we also saw the continuation of another theme that the banks are struggling to rebound with the averages, no doubt more related to having supported private credit funds which where they could be burned by collapsing software companies. The banks will be presumed guilty until proven innocent. They of course are all that weak. But we don't know who has lots of private credit exposure to software companies that are going to be eviscerated by anthropic and chat cbt. Right now we're dealing with pretty much of a zero sum situation when anthropic and chat CBT talk about their growth rates. With open air annualized annualized revenue rate up 17% just since the end of last year and anthropic doubling in the same period, it's important to recognize these revenues come from somewhere else. If chat CBT is 25 billion in annual recurring revenue and anthropics at 19 to 20 billion, that means they're taking share from other enterprise software companies that can't compete. And it means they're taking jobs from lots of companies that might be enterprise software clients. Enterprise software used to be the best place in the world to invest. There was little competition, bargains were great, growth terrific, bought us the economy. Maybe you had another Microsoft who knew a seemingly endless number of these companies were created and lots of them came public and had big moves only to fall out of favor with growth oriented money managers. That was the chance for private equity to borrow money and snap them up on the cheap. The only problem is that these stocks were cheap for a reason. They could be disrupted one day at least by artificial intelligence. Now these firms like Blue Alternative have a bunch of clunkers on their hands and it'll be very hard to bring these clunkers public again when their prospects are so dim. And of course, a higher oil that that operation is a tax on the entire system. The tax on lower and middle incomes is severe and might mean fewer cars sold, fewer homes sold, along with fewer home renovations. Those are a big part of the economy. They're the ones that get hurt the worst. So the bottom line, we know the winners in the scenario but are wary of the losers. And it's just in this environment, there could be many more in the loser column. If the Trump administration can't extricate itself from Iran and the price of oil doesn't continue to move lower now you know what needs to happen for us to get the situation under control. Let's see in the coming days if the war really is one, because if it isn't one, then I am not sure it's over. Let's go to Norman, New Jersey. Norma. Hi, Jim.

[Caller]

I'm Norma from White House, New Jersey and I'm 81 years old and I've been watching your wonderful show and enjoy it for many years.

[Jim Cramer]

I would appreciate your opinion.

[Caller]

I have owned Elf Beauty for over two years and it's had some nice runs, but now I think it is walking, maybe backwards. Should I keep it or sell it and buy Core Wave?

[Jim Cramer]

You know, oh boy. Here is. All right, that's frying pan fire. Okay, so ELF Beauty is erratic right now but I have faith that it can go higher. I think you hold off from core. We've Corey Visa is a stock that has tremendous potential but also has a lot of downside and I don't want you Norma, to be in something that has a lot of downside. As much as I like the company, it is it can be eviscerated by changes. Let's go to Johnny in Louisiana.

[Caller]

Johnny, Jim, thank you for taking my call. I'm a long member and we appreciate all you do for us home gamers out there.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, thank you Johnny. Been working like a dog. Glad that you appreciate it. It makes me feel better. What's up? All right.

[Caller]

Stock I want to talk about today is Bungie Beachy. It's a long term core holding a man and has a unique presence in both the U.S. south America and beyond. So should I buy more hold.

[Jim Cramer]

I don't want you to buy more. I don't want you buy more. Hold on to it is Bunge is a great company and you caught it at the right time. It's moving up quickly also because of of problems. The Middle east they've got believe it or not, they've got a lot of the agribusiness side, not the food side. The agribusiness side is going to do much better and you've got just a great winner and thank you for the kind words. Let's go to Jonathan in Oregon. John.

[Caller]

Hey Jim, longtime listener, first time caller. My aunt Nancy introduced me to you when I first started my investment journey.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you.

[Caller]

My question today is about Costco. They had solid earnings last week and I'm wondering where you think the company direction is headed to how the macro geopolitical environment will affect them moving forward. Would you buy, sell or hold at this point?

[Jim Cramer]

I want you to hold Costco. We earn it for the club. I think it can head to new highs. I know that some people feel it's renewal rates weren't up to snuff but I would come back and say when gasoline has a sudden, a sudden jolt up, that's always been the time to buy the stock of Costco. I want you with those in mind. I just want you to hold it. The spot spike up big in Costco stock means that we've actually got to wait for a little pullback before we buy more. Now we know the winners if oil goes lower but we have to be wary of the losers and there could be many more if oil doesn't come down. Let's hope the war is over. If you want see the stock market higher on Monday. Tonight, as we near the end of the first quarter, the S and P is set to go through its reshuffling. I'm taking a look at who's getting added to the index, who's getting kicked out and Robin Adventures Fund just went public. I'm telling you what it's all about and what it says about the state of the private market sentiment right now and how are the defensive plays holding up in this turbulent market. I'm sitting down with the real estate investment company called Realty Income Letter O, which plays a monthly dividend to find out. So stay with Kramer.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow Im Kramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer Mad Mentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Missed something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com your new home is now ready. Dr. Horton, America's Builder has new homes that are ready today. With new construction communities throughout the Puget Sound and Central Washington areas And more coming, Dr. Horton has the right home for you at Dr. Horton. We're still building with more construction, more communities and more homes available every day. Tap your screen now or visit drhorton.com to find your new home now ready. Dr. Horton, America's builder an equal housing

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[Jim Cramer]

Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getteth with the times with the tines.

[Indeed Advertiser / Stephanie Wong]

You're playing the loot.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right? Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. On Friday night, we got some big stock market news, although you might not have noticed all the craziness in the Middle East. S and P Dow Jones indices, that's the keeper of the s and P500, announced a series of changes for its key benchmark index. This happens near the end of every quarter, but I always find it interesting to watch what they're adding and what they're subtracting. This time around, there are four changes being made. In the communications sector, they're dumping Match Group, Sell, Sell, Sell, and replacing it with Echo Store. In the industrials, they're ousting Paycom Sell, Sell, Sell to make room for Vertiv. And finally, they're switching swapping Molina Health Care and Lamb Weston out for pair of tech stocks Lumentum and Coherent. With these changes, the S&P 500 will become even more levered to tech than it already is. Right now, the information technology sector alone accounts for 32.4% of the index. But there's a ton of tech that's classified under communications or consumer discretionary. Companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Mehta and Tesla. If you include just those four, the S&P is about 47% tech. Now it's losing a health care stock and a consumer staple to make room for a couple more tech stocks. Beyond that, let's take a look at these substitutions one by one. First is Kramer Faye Vertive, which makes power and cooling equipment, especially for the data center. Since Vertif came public through a SPAC merger just over six years ago, the stock has rallied over 1,950% and it's been profitable for five full years with a market capitalization now in excess of $101 billion. Wow. Really? On the basis of size, it would have been very hard for S and P Global to keep Vertive out of the index. What a stock. What a company. Next, A week ago, we learned that Nvidia was investing $2 billion apiece in a pair of fiber optic plays. Coherent and Lumentum. They both have a lot of exposure to AI infrastructure. Apparently S and P and Nvidia have the same style because both those stocks are getting added to the S&P 500. Coherence rallied more than 450% from its post Liberation Day lows last April. It's now a $47 billion company. I'm very excited about this because we're going to have on this one tomorrow. CEO Jim Anderson for an interview. That'll be something. This company, I think this company is just terrific. Momentum is similar, except its stock has been even hotter. It's up more than 1300% from its post Liberation Day lows. The stock's a lot more expensive than Coherent on a price earnings basis. Higher risk, higher reward. But they're both plays on optical networking equipment for the data center. Finally, there's EchoStar, which is a satellite play. After doing Nothing for basically 17 years, this company burst into the scene. Last year was with some huge deals to sell spectrum. In late August, EchoStar announced it would sell certain wireless spectrum licenses to AT for $23 billion. Just a couple of weeks later, in early September, they rolled out a separate deal to sell Spectrum license to space X for $17 billion. In November, they increased the size of that Space X transaction. Basically the market dramatically underappreciated the value of Echastar Spectrum assets which which is why the stock has been skyrocketing up nearly 300% over the past year following the Space X deal, which included some stock consideration. I think some people might have bought EchoStar purely as a backdoor way to get some exposure to Elon Musk Space X ahead of its ipo. That'll probably be smart. It'd probably be red hot. So what about the companies that got expelled from the S and P first Match group? Now this is a dating app company that you might recognize as Tinder or Hinge Match for several other platforms. I know nothing about online dating, thank heavens, but I do know that Matches stock is down nearly 80% over the past five years. The market cap has shrunk to 7 billion, which is now too small for the s and P500. Next. Molina Health Care is a managed care play with lots of exposure to Medicare and Medicaid, the weakest part of a weak business. That includes the kind of Medicare Advantage plans that that have been wrecking the entire industry. The stock is down 63% over the past two years. This is another one where the market cap got too small. Plus, S and P Global is not exactly reluctant to get rid of long term losers. Third, Lamb Weston sells frozen potatoes. They dominate that entire business. The company was spun off by Conagra in 2016 and for a big chunk of the following decade, Lamb Weston was a consistent winner. But in the last few years, the stock's been eviscerated. Now look, maybe it's a victim of the GOP Dash 1 weight loss drugs, or maybe it just reflects the broader struggles of the restaurant industry. Either way, the stock's down 55% over the past years to the point where Lamb west has become a $6.4 billion company. It's now the subject, by the way of an activist push from Starboard Value, a very smart firm that wants Lamb Weston to aggressively cut costs. Finally, Paycom Software does online payroll and human resource software at a time when there's just so many of these companies doing the same thing. In addition to the big payroll processors like ADP and Paychex, there are smaller players like Paycom. The whole group was being weighed down by worries about AI disruption. On the one hand, Paycom's HR software becomes less enticing when Claude can whip up something similar. On the other hand, if you believe in AI, then you believe it will destroy jobs. That's how it saves money. Which is of course bad news for the payroll processors. The big dogs, ADP and Paychex. They've been gutted and pay comes down 35% over the past 12 months. It's also up 75% from its highs in late 2021. Just a $7.5 billion market cap now at these levels. Wow. I bring these up because The S&P 500 is much more of an actively managed fund than most people realize. The index tends to perform well over time because it's curated in how to make money in any market. I hammer home the idea that you should put half of your money in an index fund and the other half in individual stocks. I'm comfortable doing that, largely because the best indices are constantly being adjusted. And this latest batch of changes really reinforces the importance of the data center build out. Especially since the war with Iran got going. It often feels like the data center build out is the only theme that's really working in this market. When you look at the new entrants into The S&P 500, 3 out of 4 are data center plays. And one of the stocks that got the boot is an AI exile. So here's the bottom line. In two weeks time, the S&P 500 will expel 400 performers and welcome their outperforming replacements. Three companies to supply the data center and a satellite play that's been selling a spectrum at a huge premium to what people thought it could get. I'm just glad there's a theme that we can hold on to even in this time of what I now have to say is extreme turmoil. Their money's back at position the brain.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

Coming up, Robinhood is looking to open up private markets to retail investors. Kramer's investigating how it looks and where it could be headed next. Amazon presents Laura vs Fruit Flies. Hide your bananas. These winged demons came to your kitchen to do two things. Eat fruit. And. And they're all out of fruit. But thankfully, Laura shopped on Amazon and saved on cleaning spray, countertop wipes and fly traps. Hey, fruit flies. Your baby boom ends here. Save the everyday with Amazon. This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Landsford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monitoring monetary policy decisions, and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Jim Cramer]

On Friday, a new publicly traded venture capital fund backed by Robinhood started trading right here in the New York Stock Exchange. It's called Robinhood Ventures Fund 1 and it trades under the symbol R V I. As of the end of January, this thing had investments in seven privately held companies. There's Databricks. That's a data management and analytics play. We've had them on the show several times, along with a British financial technology company called Revolut and an AI infused hiring startup called Mercur. Those are the three largest positions. They've also got stakes in Europe, which makes smart rings that you probably heard. Maybe you know the measure your sleep quality and ramp. That's a buzzy fintech company focused on modern corporate expense solutions that does a very good job. I'm less familiar with Air Wallix, another fintech company serving corporate customers, which seems more popular in Asia right now, and Boom Supersonic, which is working on a supersonic aircraft that it says will be able to cut commercial travel times in half. Put it all together, it's an intriguing grab bag of private label held businesses. Friday morning I got to speak with Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenables walking the street where he pitched us on this new venture fund. He says it's a way to further democratize investing, giving homegamers access to fast growing startups that ordinarily you'd only be able to get a piece of as an accredited venture capital firm. Personally, I wouldn't recommend this kind of thing, too risky for most people. But I thought it was a compelling pitch and that's why I was so surprised when the launch of RVI didn't go particularly well when Robinhood announced this thing, they said they were seeking to raise $1 billion from investors, with the fund selling 35 million shares at $25 apiece and Robinhood selling another 5 million shares itself. But RVI ended up raising far less than that. They only sold a little over 12.6 million shares at 25 bucks though. Now things got worse. Once trading yen just 4 10:30am on Friday, RVI opened at $22. After some ups and downs, it closed at $21, down 16% from the offer price. Terrible. To be fair today, today RVI did better. Rebounded to 22. But this thing clearly isn't as popular as Robin had thought it would be. What's as popular as I thought it would be? Why is that? First, I think the structure of the Robin Adventures Fund was really confusing to pretty much everybody. See. It's basically a closed end fund that trades publicly via an exchange. Many of the publicly traded closed funds that you see these days are business development companies or bdc. And investors are pretty wary of these things right now. When you hear about struggling private credit funds, lots of them are BDCs. And that's what, that's not what RVI is, but it certainly looks like it. You can think of these closed end funds as being similar to ETFs. But unlike an ETF, there's no redemption and creation feature where you can basically cash in on your shares for a piece of what the ETF owns. Something like RBI doesn't let you do that. They can allow it to become wildly that can allow it to become wildly unmoored from the underlying net asset value. Then again, with this kind of venture capital fund, it's very hard to put a valuation on the companies that it's invested in. I think that really hurt it. Take Robinhood Venture Fund's larger position databricks. RVI invested in databricks twice. First in Databricks Series K fundraising round last September that valued the company at north of 100 billion and then again series L round that valued the company at 134 billion. So wow, that's a big increase. So that the good news is Robinhood Ventures Fund is already up on its initial investment in databricks. But the broader point is for many of these holdings, investors might be worried that Robinhood came in at a later private fundraising round that already values these companies quite richly, quite full. And if you're doing that for a company that might come public soon, there is a possibility that later private fundraising rounds value the business more highly than the eventual ipo. Of course, it looks like the Robin Adventures Fund invested in its seven current holdings at various points. As Vlad 10 have told me on Friday, some of these investments were an earlier stage funding rounds, but there are also plenty in later stage investments. Plus, RBI stated in its IPO prospectus that it entered an agreement to put 15 million into a funding round for fintech startup Stripe. That's a darling. Back in February, we know from recent reporting that Stripe's latest fundraise valued the company $159 billion, which strikes me as kind of high. Let me put this as put it bluntly, when Robinhood was offering shares of RBI at $25 in the IPO, investors were buying to the fund if pay at face value. In other words, they were buying this pool of investments in private companies at the price that Robinhood was saying they were worth. And to start, there was far less demand for these assets at that price than Robin had expected. There'd be only 1/3 of the demand that they were expecting materialized. But then with these closed end funds, once they're released into the wild, we can easily see the difference between what the manager of the fund thinks some group of assets are worth and what the market thinks what they're worth. When we see publicly traded business development companies trading at 70% of their stated net asset value, that means the investors are saying, whoa, we don't think the assets you own are worth as much as you think they're worth. And in the case of the new Robin Venture Fund, the fact that the stocks have traded substantially lower right out of the gate meant that the public market investors just aren't buying the valuations here. You know what, that's telling. As I've been explaining all year, there are some huge IPOs coming toward the end of 2026 with some companies that have achieved astronomical valuations in the comforts of private markets. Space X was recently valued at $1.25 trillion after its merger with Xi and apparently could be seeking a $1.5 trillion valuation when it comes public later this year. Open Air was just valued at 730 billion in a private fundraising effort that ended last month, and Anthropic the Destroyer was valued at 380 billion in a fundraise around the same time. These are just huge numbers, and it's an open question whether public investors will sign off on these type of numbers. That's why the suboptimal debut of Robin Adventures Fund really matters. The bottom line is that this was our first chance to get a glimpse of how public investors will feel about some of these more elevated private market valuations. And this is just one example. Clearly people aren't that enthused about these venture capital backed startups. And as long as the disruptions caused by the war with Iran drag on, it's not going to get any easier marketing this merchandise to the public. Let's talk to Sammy in California. Sammy.

[Caller]

Hey Jim. Playing tennis out here. It's a balmy 73. Sorry, I don't know what's doing out there. I am calling about sad things. So today JPMorgan Chase suggested that we could see 10% correction in the market if the war drags on. And some of the financials which I'm calling but have been really hard hit and the price of oil as you know seems to be in chaos. So. And they're also suggesting possible stagnation. According to an article on the well known financial website. As an example, Citi fell in the last four weeks to a low of 8%. When do you see the market recovering or will it? And I'm on a large cap called Capital One.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay now Capital One is, it's supercharged right now because it's got a lot of credit card debt obviously. And people are very concerned about credit card debt at a time when oil has moved up so much. One point the stock was down 6 today. I would tell you that it's an incredible, fantastic opportunity. We own the stock for the Chapel Trust. It did go as high as 250. We sold some, we bought it back a little too quickly. But it's down a huge amount in the last month and I think it's just a solid buy. Let's go to Isaac in New York. Isaac.

[Caller]

Hi Mr. Kramer, this is Isaac from Long Island, New York.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you.

[Caller]

I'm listening. First time caller. Okay, is about Coinbase came to the market in April 2021 at 381. I remember listening to you. You say the stock can go to 600 but don't buy it now. And you're right. The stock went all the way down to 60 and now it's. Then you went all the way up to 444. Now it's around 200. I appreciate your opinion and prediction. Sure, thank you very much.

[Jim Cramer]

I'll tell you, I think that a lot of people just think it's a play on Bitcoin. And what I would suggest you do is just buy Bitcoin. It's cleaner, it has less to do with whether there's competition, say from, from Blackrock or from Fidelity. So just go with bitcoin. That's the way to go. The Robin Adventures fund was a chance to see how public investors feel about private market valuations. Looks like right now people, they aren't too enthused. Now much more made money. Include my Susan with Reality Income. Let her out. But the stock up double digits. Your reality, really? I got to tell you, these guys are outperforming the rest of market and it's a very exciting story. It's one I've endorsed for many years. So let's talk to the CEO. There's something in this market that doesn't make sense to me. I'm telling you what it is and how you can invest accordingly. And of course, all your calls. Rapid fire in tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer. Even at this crazy moment. It's been good year for Realty Income. Let her know. The real estate investment trust that mostly owns retail properties, if it's been diversifying itself lately, the stock is up 15% year to date with a nearly 5% dividend yield. Now some of that's because Realty Income has made a push into industrial game, industrial gaming and datacenter properties while also moving into Mexico. When they reported their most recent quarter a couple of weeks ago, the results were in line with expectations. But full year forecast with average funds came in just a tad light. Still, the market seemed to like what Realty Income is building here. I don't blame them. Even if it might take time for some of these investments to pay off. I like what I see. So let's take a closer look with Sumit Royce, the president CEO of Realty Income Corp. You get a better read in the situation. Welcome back to Mad Money.

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

Thank you very much for having me, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so I'll tell you, Sumit, it is very funny. I was going through everything that you've done and I've always felt that you were the best of the real estate business trust. But you were unhappy with your performance. How is that possible and why did you make the change?

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

Well, look, I'm not going to go so far as to say I'm unhappy with the performance of what we've done year today. But if you think about where we are trading at today versus just historical multiples, we are still three or four turns off of that. But I'm looking towards the future and I'm so excited about where we are on our journey having created these different avenues both on the financing side as well as on the growth side that you alluded to in your opening remarks, Jim. So the future looks bright and especially at times like this where uncertainty is elevated, you know, that's when we really perform well. And so I'm really looking forward to that.

[Jim Cramer]

You know, I think of you in terms of these private credit companies. They were so eager to get away from institutional money. They wanted individuals. You understood that individuals could be very fickle and you decide to go institutional. I think your path is proving to be much more correct, isn't

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

is, it's a more difficult path. But you know, we are building, building this company for the long haul. And when you think about our, our history, we've been around for over 31 years in the public domain, over 55 years as a, as a company. We wanted to make sure that the capital that we raised on the private side mimicked what we had on the public side. And so institutional capital, long duration, open ended structure that was going to be very key to executing our long duration dependable investments that we make. And so it was by design that we chose this route.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, so let's start with the new investors I like. For instance, you mentioned GIC as a partnership. You say, here's an investor in our company, they like this. So you decide to take it one step further, correct?

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

That's correct. In fact, we have multiple partnerships with gic. They came in and supported us on the open ended fund. We've built a proprietary relationship with them on build to suit facilities both here in the US as well as in Mexico. They had tremendous experience in Mexico working with Heinz and they wanted us to come in and basically be a partner in helping them take out some of these built to suit high credit clients, long duration, dollar denominated leases. All of the things that you would associate with a company like ours in terms of managing the volatility, the predictability, et cetera.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, so tell me about what you think about the data center situation. It's become very controversial. Not in my head because I think that you're going to make a lot of money. But a lot of people feel like there's overbuilding in data centers. There's. And what will happen is that people, there'll be some true value destruction. Do you think like me, that you know what, it turns out this is just the new way of business. It is.

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

Look at, look at our business for instance, Jim. We are a real estate business, but I've been investing in technology now for over seven years, creating predictive analytic tools that is so heavily reliant on data, obviously proprietary data that we've cultivated over 30 years of history, but also external sources of data. And every company that you turn to has an AI strategy in mind. How are we going to enhance scalability? How are you going to take advantage of information that is available real time, help you make decisions, et cetera? And that's not going to be possible without data centers. Yes, we hear about the Big seven and their need for data centers, but this is, this is a trend that will continue. Having said that, you know, some of these developers are not going to get through and so I believe that's going to create opportunities for us. But our, our thinking about this is, is pretty precise. We've created a narrow box within which we want to play and I'm very long data centers, but it needs to fit that box that we've created for ourselves.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, now how about this move into the casinos, the Encore Boston Harbor Resort, which we've liked very much by the way. We've been outspoken about how good that property is.

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

It has been and it continues to, to perform really well. If you think about when we first underwrote it versus today, the performance has just continued to improve. And it's a similar investments we've made in the City center building in Vegas as well as the Bellagio. I mean if you look at those, the performance of those two assets, assets in the Strip and you compare it to a lot of the other assets that are not doing as quite as well. You have a, you understand why we choose to be very selective when it comes to gaming and why do we choose the right operator but more importantly the right location that the operator is functioning out of. And you know, the proof is in the pudding. If you look at the results of these two assets and MGM just came out and talked about that they are continuing to do very well despite a softening in the Vegas markets for more, you know, middle tier assets.

[Jim Cramer]

Last question. The whole conversation would have been involved Family Dollar and Walgreens because that's what got letter O. If there was a compression, it was because there's always going to be some chain that doesn't do well, your whole model set up. So if that happens, you won't even notice. But that's all people used to pick one, isn't it? Our conversation did not revolve around how many Walgreens are going to close and how many Family Dollar close because you've grown out of that. To me that is a mature, correct way to go in an environment where it's unforgiving. If you have the one retail chain

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

that's not doing well, that's exactly right. Diversification, Diversification, diversification. That's what we've built this entire portfolio on. It's essential based retail. You know grocery is our largest industry. Convenience stores, discount stores. But even those two names are going to be just fine. And we have such a diversified portfolio which is precisely why at times like this we tend to outperform. So we are very excited. The building blocks of growth that we have shared with the market, that's been well received. I think it's been starting to get reflected in our stock price performance. But we are very excited about the future. And despite this volatility that we see in the background we, we feel like we are very well positioned to perform well.

[Jim Cramer]

I couldn't agree more. It's very exciting situation. I just like gives you the monthly, safe monthly dividend go up over time. But now you get very good outperformance and get that safe monthly dividend. That's, that's Sumit Roy, President CEO of Realty Income. I love your strategy sir. Thanks for coming back.

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

Absolutely, my pleasure. Thank you for having me.

[Jim Cramer]

Absolutely. Bad money is back after the break.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

Coming up you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round. Next.

[Jim Cramer]

It is time sh for the light round Christmas rap for recording here. Bye bye My stamper is going to be planted sound and then the light is round is over. Are you ready ski daddy? Time for the light round Crazy. Let's start with Carl in California.

[Caller]

Carl, is it time to buy the

[Jim Cramer]

dip in Hamilton Lane? No, because the company is way too levered to private credit and we don't want to go with private credit. The world has changed. Private credit is not a good thing. Let's go to Blake in Tennessee. Blake, type Jim, thank you for taking this Pray America club member call. Thank you for calling. I wanted your input on this. Picks and shovels type play for data centers. It's ticker NBT Invent Electric. Yep, you got it. That's absolutely right. That's exactly how I describe that. It's like a mini verdict. Good call. Let's go to Arden in Indiana. Arden.

[Caller]

Hi Jim, thank you for taking my call. My question is about Agilent Technologies. I have a small position in it at 140. I wonder if it's ever coming back.

[Jim Cramer]

You know they do so much test and measurement that it's biotech. It's almost Like a Danaher, which stopped working. Danaher, Agilent. I don't think you need it. I would go. Let's go to Nick in Texas, please. Nick.

[Caller]

Hey.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah.

[Sumit Roy, CEO of Realty Income]

Jim Cramer.

[Caller]

How are you?

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah. I am good. How are you?

[Caller]

I'm hanging in there. A little beat down the last couple weeks, but other than that, I'm hanging in there.

[Jim Cramer]

Good. I want you to hang in. I don't want you to exit. That's the key thing. Stick with it.

[Caller]

Thanks.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

Yeah.

[Jim Cramer]

I want to thank you for your

[Caller]

advice on our last phone call on holding Carvana at 183. So I wanted double to sold half of it. So anyway, my call about today is I'm hurting really bad on this stock. I'm in at 152. Should I cut bait and run on Arm Holdings?

[Jim Cramer]

No, Arm holdings is in every device there is. I really hesitate to tell you to leave that one. I think there's just a lot of good stuff happening at arm and Rene Haas is doing a terrific job. Let's go to Randy in Vermont. Randy. Oh yeah, Jim. Booyah. Randy. What's happening? What do you think about App Lovin? Is this AI too much ad platform, still a buy, too much risk there. I do fear that. Kind of like what happened the trade desk, you come in next, you wake up and Google's there. I don't want Google to be coming in after me and I think the margins there are so good that who knows what will happen. Let's go to Reed in Minnesota. Reed, Jim, I'm a longtime fan of your show, but a first time caller.

[Caller]

Thank you very much for the huge

[Jim Cramer]

impact you have on all of us. Sure. Try to please. Okay. Sassan the Darzee came on our show, the CEO came on our show after that quarter. A lot of people didn't like the quarter. He liked it, I liked it. And what's it done? Nothing but go higher. You stick with that one, it's going to go higher. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the lightning round.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up. With the actions of President Trump causing large shifts in the market, Cramer is weighing in on how to handle the very fluid situation the market finds itself itself in.

[Jim Cramer]

Next.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

Tomorrow, kick off the trading day with squawk on the street live from post nine at the nyse.

[Jim Cramer]

Now I know your favorite words. Yeah. Fanciful, ill advised and suboptimal. Because I learned along raises eyebrows. Because when I decided to switch to being a statesman, I realized the way you stay out of hot Water is use this Definitive terms should write a book. Kramer's Thesaurus.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

It all starts at 9am Eastern.

[Jim Cramer]

Let me give you a big reason why I'm not in love with this market right now. Despite tonight's positive close, I think there's just too much hope right now versus what's really at stake, what's really happening? What do I mean by hope? Let's say we leave here today after the magnificent comeback from the ugly lows. We're feeling that we might have something to build on, a sense we could put together a couple of days worth of comeback. Then when we get home and the futures open for the night session, they look good, maybe even up a bit from where the market went out. But as the evening wears on, the numbers first turn negative and then heavily negative in the middle of night. That follows through until the the morning with almost no let up. So you're down from the get go. You leave here after work feeling very good, only to have your hopes dashed by the futures, even if they are good things happening. But that's become the pattern. You know the futures know more than you, right? So why else would they be? They wouldn't be betting so heavily. And here's what's astonishing. They seem to make themselves right. Every day there'll be something wrong, whether it be interest rates or commodities or defaults. There's always something wrong, right? I mean, correct. And that wrong will be accentuated by the coverage. A kernel negativity turns into a sequoia pessimism and it can't be felt. Why is that? I think a lot of it is actually determined by the President himself. He's become incredibly unpredictable. In Trump's first term, prosperity was job one. And the measure of prosperity was did it resonate with the Dow Jones average? Now, you might not think that that leads to the ideal policy outcomes, but you could do a lot worse than having a President who keeps up with the Joneses. If something went wrong in the economy, you could confidently buy stocks under Trump. One because the President was consistent as he judged himself by the performance of the averages, he would do his best to fix it. Average go higher. Trump too is a very different beast. I think the average mean nothing. Nothing, nothing. It's as if he thinks he made a mistake the first time around. So now he's going to take actions counter to the averages and explain them as short term pain, long term gain. That's how he was building the war with Iran. So he seemingly declared a borderline over. This afternoon, the President was resolute in his call for unconditional surrender just a couple of days ago. But now we learn that, well, didn't you know What? The war was won. Now we know. Liberation Day was a major blunder that clobbered the market last year. Those extremely high tariffs had to be repealed soon after. Was it the Dow Jones average that made Trump change his mind? Maybe, but it took a real beating before he was willing to chart a new course. And that beating was a pretty obvious outcome when you think about it. Otherwise, though, the adventurism, the fickle nature of these plans, they leave very little room for hope. And yet people are hopeful. I think the overnight futures, they really become largely negative, because if there's going to be a surprise by Trump, it will most likely be one that is antithetical to the bulls, one that's negative, maybe real negative. And we've done a true social, no less. Today did the opposite when he seemed to declare that the war was won. But who knows if we'll feel the same way tomorrow if Iran shows disrespect to the President. Yeah, come on. The world be back on. So traders are saying, why not have some protection from him and its next moves? Why not sell futures? And that's what's driving the futures. Again, you could argue, take a look at this rally at the bottom. It's real. But as the evening goes on, as we get further and further from the closing bell, the overnight futures will often tell you otherwise. And they can be very convincing. Look, what's best for the stock market isn't always what's best for the nation. I know that. But anything that's terrible for the stock market is probably not good news for America. That's why I kind of wish Trump, too, was a little more like Trump won and taking his cue directly from the averages and in not changing his mind so that often, so often, because that creates hope followed by despair. Hope, despair, hope, despair. Leaving confused investors in his wake. And a confused investor almost always ends up being a scared, panicky seller. I like to say there's always a bull market Summer. I promise. I just be right here, man. Money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.

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All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previous disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer trading@schwab is powered

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