Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 4/27/26

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – April 27, 2026

Host: Jim Cramer (CNBC)
Theme: Navigating a Two-Tier Market, Semiconductor Explosions, Gold’s Changing Role, and Data Center Myths

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Episode Overview

Cramer dives into the current “two-tier” stock market defined by massive outperformance in data center and semiconductor names, contrasting with weaker action elsewhere. He dissects the sustainability of the data center-driven rally, discusses the impact and risks of major upcoming IPOs, analyzes parabolic market moves (especially in semis), and re-examines old beliefs about gold as a hedge. Cramer also explores whether data center buildouts are truly responsible for rising utility rates and debunks common misconceptions with insights from industry leaders. As always, he answers a variety of caller questions—including a rapid-fire Lightning Round.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Two-Tier Market Dynamics (01:00–08:55)

• Market Split: Cramer describes a dramatic divide: “We got a two-tiered market going on here. A real best of times, worst of times situation. The first tier is making you a fortune, but the second tier is downright awful. It’s Dickensian.” (01:12)
• Winners: Data center stocks are refuges from broader market volatility, mainly due to AI and cloud demand. Intel and AMD are viewed as primary CPU complex leaders, with significant attention on upcoming hyperscaler earnings (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) for AI capex updates.
• Core Advice: On Nvidia: “You know me, I say Nvidia, don’t trade it, own it.” (06:27)
• Risks: Cramer highlights two major risks to the ongoing bull run:
  • An aggressive Federal Reserve (not expected currently with Kevin Wash favoring lower rates),
  • A flood of massive IPOs (OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic) absorbing market liquidity.
  • “When you take all the money that’s headed to these [upcoming IPO] deals, you can only imagine how much every other stock could suffer. If you ask me, that is the real risk to this market.” (07:54)
• Takeaway: While these IPOs are not imminent, “If this trio of IPOs goes through the shoot at one time…the bull could be the loser because the bull runs on money…”

2. Caller Q&A – Stock Pitches and Analysis (08:56–11:38)

• Dutch Bros (BROS): “I think it’s an excellent time to enter. … I wouldn’t buy all the stock at one time. … I think you’re right to start a position.” (09:14)
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): “Taiwan Semi is a very good situation.” (09:50)
• Novo Nordisk (NVO): “I think Novo Nordisk is going to lose a lot of share on the pill to Eli Lilly. So I say no, we don’t want to be there.” (10:41)

3. Semiconductor Melt-up: Context and Caution (13:38–19:32)

• Record Run: The Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX) gained 47% in 18 days—second only to February 2000, right before the dotcom bust. Cramer emphasizes context: previous big runs didn’t always mark tops (see late 1990s history).
• “Don’t Be a Pig”: Even beloved stocks can run too far, too fast—Cramer describes trimming positions in names like ARM Holdings; “when something surges 34% in less than a week, well, you know what? You got to pull in your horns.” (14:42)
• Extreme Example: Poet Technologies soared on hype but halved in a day when a customer cancelled. “Loose lips sink ships, especially ships like a stock.” (16:37)
• Bottom Line: “When you see these kinds of moves, you don’t need to freak out. But you’ve got to be disciplined. … take a deep breath, keep your cool…” (18:26)

4. Gold: No Longer a Safe Haven? (21:37–28:10)

• Price Surge and Paradox: Gold has outperformed stocks since late 2023—up 127% vs S&P’s 50%—but Cramer warns: “even though gold prices have rallied like crazy, the yellow metal hasn’t been behaving the way I expected it to.” (21:49)
• Not Acting Defensive: Instead of rising during turmoil, gold fell more than equities during recent inflation scares. Gold “has been trading like a speculative asset, not as insurance for your portfolio.” (22:36)
• Technical Warning: Legendary technician Larry Williams’ analysis (seasonality, cycles) suggests gold will face a potentially steep decline through June. “If you got a big gain in your gold, I’m giving you my blessing: take something off the table. And I never say that about gold.” (27:25)

5. More Caller Q&A (28:11–36:55)

• Air Rare Oath (Brazil, Sierra Verde acquisition): “Companies up between say 60 and 100% are rolling over...I want to wait for a pullback. Too risky right here.” (28:31)
• Reliance (RS): “Very fine company… not outrageously expensive… just had a nice quick move. Power almost parabolic. … Can’t tell you not to own it.” (29:09)

6. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Value Trap or Opportunity? (32:00–36:59)

• Stock Decline: Ollie’s peaked in 2025 and fell sharply—now trades at a discount to peers. “Expectations got too high, stock got too expensive, and other value-oriented retailers were putting up better numbers.”
• Fundamentals: Ollie’s remains financially strong (high cash, low debt) and continues to grow store count and buy back shares. “At its highs, always was trading roughly 37 times earnings; down selling roughly 20 times this year’s earnings estimates.”
• Thesis: “Ali’s is not TJX and may not deserve a TJX multiple but also shouldn’t trade like a broken retailer. … Small, start small, buy gradually on weakness and watch three things: same store sales, new store productivity and gross margin.” (35:54)

7. Lightning Round Highlights (37:17–43:39)

Quick opinions—buy, sell, or hold—with trademark Cramer flair:

• Joby (JOBY): “Way too risky… Don’t want you to be disgusted and drops real quick.” (37:48)
• BillionToOne Diagnostics: “We think it’s really good… but diagnostic companies haven’t been working.” (38:13)
• Boston Scientific: “Competition just got too strong… I want to see the stock bottom before I say okay.” (38:40)
• Rocket Lab: “I think Rocket Labs is a winner. … That is a speculative stock that I am blessing right here.” (39:06)
• Fabrinet (FN): “Needs to cool though. I think it needs to drop back a little.” (39:38)
• Pinnacle (PNW): “Hasn’t really been a beneficiary of data build up… but it’s a good company. Buy some here and then buy some more lower.” (40:28)
• Intuitive Machines: “This is kind of speculative stock that I’m going to endorse… decent time to speculate on rocket and rocket technology.” (41:36)
• Brad Jacobs/Top Build: “Brad’s a winner. … You want to be with Brad Jacobs, not against.” (42:10)
• Hydro Aluminum: “Aluminum’s got all the tariff stuff going for it, but I can’t recommend it. Just straight up.” (43:25)

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Myth Busting: Data Centers and Utility Rates (43:55–47:54)

• Prevailing Narrative: Politicians argue that data centers spike electricity costs and don’t provide enough jobs.
• Industry Evidence Disagrees:
  • Jeff Martin (Sempra, CEO): In Texas, data centers’ costs can be managed without harming consumers if growth is managed smartly.
  • Patty Poppe (PG&E, CEO): In California, data centers actually reduce rates because they add customer base (“Every gigawatt we add will reduce rates by 1% or more.” (45:30))
  • Jeff Blau (Related Companies): $16B Michigan data center for Oracle/OpenAI will save customers $300 million per year; data center customers pay full freight. Uses less water compared to prior farm land use. (45:30–46:23)
  • Michael Semblis (JP Morgan): National power prices have only edged up slightly, and electricity is a “mere 1.4% of household expenditures.”
• Cramer’s View: Not all data centers are blameless—some deals were too generous. However, responsible project deals can benefit communities. “Maybe our leaders should demand that data center operators live up to the standards that Governor Whitmer set in Michigan and change up terms of contracts that have been hurting communities.” (47:33)
• Conclusion: “Instead of calling for a moratorium on data center building, maybe our leaders should…care enough about the details to hold these data center operators responsible as they should.” (47:42)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Semis Run: “I don’t like parabolic moves. … Even though we’re big fans of the stock…what we do, we…downgraded it …when something surges 34% in less than a week, well, you know what? You got to pull in your horns. You can’t be a pig.” (14:36)
• On IPO Risks: “An OpenAI IPO might not kill the revolution bull market, but you know that Elon Musk is going to bring SpaceX public…Right again, that'll suck up a huge amount of money from the rest of the market…” (07:43)
• On Gold: “It's been trading like a speculative asset, not as insurance for your portfolio for well over a year now… If you got a big gain in your gold I'm giving you my blessing and take something off the table. And I never say that about gold.” (22:36, 27:25)
• On Data Centers: Patty Poppy (PG&E): “Every gigawatt we add will reduce rates by 1% or more.” (45:30)
  Jeff Blau: “Oracle and OpenAI will ultimately create $300 million a year of savings for customers…” (45:45)
• On Ollie’s: “Ollie still has a long runway…They ended last year with $562.8 million of cash and investments versus almost no funded debt… This is not a retailer that’s fighting for survival. It’s a retailer with money, real estate opportunities and a rapidly growing store base.” (34:36)

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Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment / Takeaway | |-----------|-------------------------------| | 01:00–08:55 | Two-Tier Market, Data Center Rallys, IPO Risks | | 08:56–11:38 | Caller Q&A: Dutch Bros, TSM, Novo Nordisk | | 13:38–19:32 | Semiconductor Index Explosion, Discipline Advice | | 21:37–28:10 | Gold’s Changing Behavior, Technical Sell Flag | | 28:11–36:55 | More Caller Q&A: Rare earths, Metals, Reliability | | 32:00–36:59 | Ollie’s Bargain Outlet: Correction and Opportunity | | 37:17–43:39 | Lightning Round: Quick-fire Stock Takes | | 43:55–47:54 | Data Centers & Utility Rates: Myth-Busting |

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Final Thoughts

Jim Cramer blends his trademark firebrand opinion with thoughtful warnings and tactical advice, urging discipline amid frothy sectors. Notably, he advises some trimming in “parabolic” stocks, highlights risk from mega-IPOs, urges listeners to rethink gold’s role in their portfolios, and shines a contrarian light on the data center-utility debate. The episode mixes actionable stock advice with macro insights—essential listening for active investors navigating today’s “best of times, worst of times” market.

Transcript

[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Caller]

Most of us go Dr.

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramer. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make a little bit of money here. My job is not just entertain, but to educate, do some teaching. So call me at 1743 CNBC. Tweet me at Jim Cramer. Oh, we got a two tiered market going on here. A real best of times, worst of times situation. The first year is making you a fortune, but the second tier is downright awful. It's Dickensian. There are the beloved stocks that have something, anything to do with the data center and. And then there's the forlorn part of the market, basically everything else. You can never see this in the average Dow dipping 63 points. SB advancing.12%. Nasdaq edging up 0.2%. Some days like today, have some of the data center complex in retreat even as the mainstays pile forward. But you can still sense that any pullback might just be temporary and the result of just short term overheating. I regard these pullbacks as buying opportunities, provided they take it down at least say 5%. They're. They're refuges. Refuge. Their refuges from the hazards of the war as they don't really correlate with energy other than on their own grid. More on that later. They're separate, apart from all others can the related Data Center Stocks Keep winning? Let's talk short term and long term. Last week we had an explosion of buying related to an incredible, incredibly exciting story that is intel say many of the stocks that were deemed copycats of intel were pancake. I think you're getting a real good chance to buy them those, but I don't want to get ahead of myself. That said, I believe the companies that are involved in the CPU complex will do very well for the rest of the year. Mainly that's intel and amd. But don't forget our holdings really down badly today. We're going to find out about the real health of the data center come Wednesday when we got Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft all reporting all four have spent fortunes on the datacenter buildouts. Will they pause spending or is it too important to keep investing in AI, especially because they're now seeing some returns. Or perhaps these returns might be right on the horizon. It's really tough. I'd love to hear that the hyperscalers who want to spend more are already getting a return. But those who keep spending and see nothing, oh you know what, we're sellers and if they aren't spending, they better have a plan for more compute or they can be like Apple perhaps. Only there's only one Apple. They report Thursday. Thanks to its huge user base, Apple can lean on Google Search and Gemini Chat bot in seamless fashion. They don't need to spend a ton of money now. I expect a ton of volatility in these stocks because the market's mercurial and the consensus can change on the die. When you listen to conference calls, pay attention to what the hyperscalers say about their AI capital expenditures. That's what we're all watching. That's really the only data point that matters. But that day, one thing's certain. Though seemingly out of nowhere, we're seeing a tremendous level of interest in Nvidia, which doesn't even report this week. It's enough to make you write off all the stories you've heard about how Amazon and Google have their own competing chips that will eat Nvidia live. Although I have to, I think the competing chips are terrific. I saw this in Video Explosion chart on Friday when the stock finished up more than 8 bucks. I noticed there have been multiple sellers that leaked lived at 200 level and once they were cleaned out this thing went up like a rocket ship. There was no stock supply. None. There's no sellers and again today lots of buyers. Those sellers just pick up. So the Buyers took the darn stock all the way up to $216, up $8. What an incredible move for the biggest stock in this market. Now, it has been a late bloomer here in part because so many big accounts already owned it but but I guess enough firms didn't that it could still have such a rapid joint. You know me, I say Nvidia, don't trade it, own it. The memory and storage stocks keep ramping up to micron, up another 5% today. Sand is jumping up another 7%. They make essential components for servers that are in short supply, along with Seagate and Western Digital, which took a breather today. Still though, we saw a narrowing of the semis after a remarkable 37% run this month alone. Now they're in. I'd like to think they're in RR rest and relaxation mode. Throw in the four Horsemen of Wednesday and you could get a terrific opportunity to go back to an intel if it goes down, or AMD or ARM holdings as well as LAM Research and Applied Materials. I regard those are the two best capital expenditure stocks. Obviously I'm inclined to keep betting on I I am a disciple of Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia who preaches the coming of the fourth Industrial Revolution. What is the fourth Industrial Revolution? It's a revolution of thought where we'll be creating intelligence out of data centers filled with equipment that are known as knowledge factories. They'll come up with things we've never heard of, which is why it's so difficult to figure out whether things aren't so expensive. If we hear if there are things we never heard of, we can't put them in our numbers. Granted, we haven't been able to reap the gains yet other than a few bits and bobs of cost savings, but no one wants to admit that. Fact is though, this Industrial Revolution, like all the previous ones and is a revolution in productivity. We will be all be able to do a lot more with less and think much further than our brains currently let us. I think that makes the story unstoppable. But we're investing not prognostic as much as I believe you can't derail the revolution, there will be times when you won't be able to make money with it. It just won't be productive for your portfolio. That's not because of the companies themselves. I fully expect Nvidia will be at the heart of all of everything that comes in the long knives that have been out for for so long. They're gone. However, I know that Bull Markets can be killed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. Right now, the incoming chair, Kevin Wash, is a lover of lower interest rates, so it's not something we need to worry about. But a bull can also be killed by excess supply. Too many big IPOs and it collapses under its own weight. Today, jury selection began in the case of Musk vs Altman, et al, who run OpenAI. Musk wants money and the removal of the current leadership, specifically CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman. It's a very convoluted case, but for our purposes only. One thing matters. When this case is resolved, will OpenAI be able to come public? If so, it will suck up a ridiculous amount of money. Because this thing could have a trillion dollar valuation that one needs to come from somewhere. Most likely will come from the rest of the market alone. An OpenAI IPO might not kill the revolution bull market, but you know that Elon Musk is going to bring Space X public at what is said to be a $1.75 trillion valuation. Given that it's Musk, it turned out to be two and a half trillion. Right Again, that'll sup up a huge amount of money from the rest of the market that might have been in some of the other data center stocks. And then lurking, lurking, lurking is Anthropic, which is the blessing of so many large institutions because it works with the enterprise and the enterprise loved on Wall Street. It's sticky. It's not fickle like the consumer. Anthropic is currently below 400 billion. The hunger for this company among individuals and institutions is insane, though, and I think a lot closer to profitability. So it's entirely possible that this one goes out at $1 trillion. When you take all the money that's headed to the three of these likely deals, you can only imagine how much every other stock could suffer. If you ask me, that is the real risk to this market, not all the other things you hear about. Here's the bottom line. At the moment, these IPOs are far enough away that I'm not fretting. That said, if the trial is a fast one, Open Air has a shot of coming public this year. They might be in a foot race with Anthropic. I don't know which will be the winner, but the bull could be the loser because the bull runs on money in the fourth Industrial Revolution or not. It just might run out of money if this trio of IPOs goes through the shoot at one time. Let's go to Mona and Illinois. Mona.

[Caller]

Hi, Jim. Thank you for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you. Thank you.

[Caller]

Yes. I've been following you for more than 10 years now and I totally enjoy your show. And my question today is about Dutch brothers. Is it a good time to enter or should I wait for the price

[Jim Cramer]

to drop a little bit for the Dutch bro? I think it's an excellent time to enter. I expect very good numbers does have a high price earnings ratio. So I would buy all the stock at one time. But I think you're right to start a position. I think that's a good call. Thank you for following me. How about Caleb in Texas? Caleb.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. Just wanted to say Congratulations on your 20 years of the show. And so my stock that I'm asking about, I've been investing back in 2024 and I put a good amount of money into it and I'm still investing in it till this day. And I wanted to talk about tsm. Do you still think it has a lot of room to grow?

[Jim Cramer]

I like TSM very, very much. I think it's terrific. I remember when it reported last week the stock went down on a perfectly good quarter. I came in here, I said, listen, I like that quarter. I looked real bad for about 48 minutes. And that's about it. Taiwan semi is a very good situation. Let's go to Dimitri in California.

[Caller]

Dimitri, how are you, Jim?

[Jim Cramer]

I am good. Dimitri, how are you doing? Good.

[Caller]

I decided watching your show a few months ago and I'm a huge, huge fan.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you very much for putting us on.

[Caller]

I started reading your book and I'm very impressed with Mr. Hank. Very disciplined man.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you.

[Caller]

My question is on the symbol nvo whether to hold or drop. The dropped quite a bit.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, Novo Nordisk. No, look, Eli Lilly struggling right here. I think Novo Nordisk is going to lose a lot of share on the pill to Eli Lilly. So I say no, we don't want to be there. But thank you for the poll and thank you for watching and reading. I don't know whether open air SpaceX or Anthropic will be the IPO winner, but Bull markets can run out of money. And that's what I'm worried about. My money tonight. What goes up must come down. But is that going to be the case for the semi stocks? I'm taking a closer look at the rapid rise then. Have gold prices been acting more like a spec play than a flight to safety? I'm turning to the charts for more about the moves in the precious metal and consumers are looking for a. So why is the stock like Ollie's doing so poorly. I'm investigating, so stay with Kramer.

[Announcer]

Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow imkramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer Madmentions. Send Jim an email to madmoneynbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com

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[Jim Cramer]

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This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview, delivered in 10 minutes or less. Projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] Market Update podcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jim Cramer]

On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the Sox for short, shot up 4.3% thanks to a big boost from the stock of intel. That was the 18th straight day of gains. That winning streak ended today, but this has still been an astonishing period for the chip makers. During that 18 day winning streak from March 30 through last Friday, the stocks gained more than 47% and it's still up 37% for the month of April. Today's decline now look people, that's a remarkable run. So we got to put this thing into some context because for some it's just too far too fast. When you look back at the best months in history for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, you find that April is already the second best month ever. The only month where the stocks had a bigger gain was February of 2000. Now that was right before the dot com bubble burst. I know it's a pretty ominous comparison. House of Pain and some analysts started connecting the dots this morning we saw multiple analysts writing about how the Sox was the farthest above its 200 day moving average that had been at any point since yes, 2000. And now it's gotten insanely overbought levels. You know I'm not going to screw that. How worried should we be that honestly, it's probably not as dire as it sounds. Why don't we go back to that list of the best months ever for the Sox? Sure, the number one month came a few weeks before the peak of the dot com era, but most of these months were not tops. Many of them were either near the beginning of the dot com period or somewhere in the middle of the the stocks was up 27% in November of 1996. That would not have been a good time to bail in the semis, right? Same goes for June 1999, October 1998, January 1997, January 1999 and July 1997. Those were all months where the Sox gained something like 20% or more and the tech rally was far from over. Pleasure. How about the fact that the stocks has gotten very far above its 200 day moving average? Okay, that's true. But again, let's talk context. After today's pullback, the stocks is up 46% above its 200 day moving average. Not perfect. At the end of February 2000, stocks is up 96% from its 200 day moving average. We're not even half as overextended as we were back then. Still. Look, I'm concerned too, okay? I don't like rapid moves. I don't like parabolic moves. And lately we've seen a lot of parabolic moves all over the market and those are worrisome. I don't want to overreact, but we've been taking some action around the edges for the Travel Trust on the sell side. Now you'd know that if you're a member of the CNBC Investing club, I wish you join. For example, last Thursday the Chapel Trust trimmed some of its position in community electronics, that is a DuPont spin off that makes specialized materials for semiconductors, and rallied 30% from March 30 to April 23. Now, too fast. Last Monday the trust added semiconductor design company arm holdings to the portfolio and then the darn thing proceeded to rally 34% over the next four days. If you go back further, ARM gained over 71% from March 30, April 24. So even though we're big fans of the stock, what we do, we can sell it, because I mentioned it, but we downgraded it from a 1, which means a buy for the trust, to a 2, meaning a buy into weakness, which typically means I try to take something off price matters. And when something surges 34% in less than a week, well, you know what? You got to pull in your horns. You can't be a pig. Now, it'd be one thing if it was just the semiconductors rally like this, but the fact of the matter is that there are all sorts of stocks connected. The data center theme that have been making parabolic moves. We ran a quick screen looking for U.S. listed stocks with a minimum market cap of $1 billion, which have had gains of 50% or more since March 30. The day at the stock market bottom, there are 94 of them, including some used names in semiconductors networking, like AMD, up over 70%, Arista Networks up 49%, Marvell Tech, up 80%. That's in addition to intel, which I spent plenty of time on already, and all the memory and data storage names that have just been flying. These types of moves worry me. If you want to know what can happen when they go wrong. All right, I'm giving extreme versions called Poet Technologies. Poet Pot, like the Poet. Okay, for those who don't remember, we covered Poet last night, last Tuesday night as a homework item. After I got a call about the stock, I said it was too early stage to get excited about it. With roughly just $300,000 in revenue last year. Early more of a science project and established business. Then I watched in horror as the stock proceeded to gain another 25% last Wednesday. And after an 8% decline last Thursday, it jumped another 20 29% on Friday. But today, Poet announced that one of its largest potential customers, one that I mentioned last week, had canceled its orders. Seem because Poets executives may have run their mouths too much about those deals. Loose lips sink ships, especially ships like a stock. As a result, Poets stock was basically cut in half today, down 47%. That's exactly the kind of thing that I'm really worried about when I see all these parabola moves. No, not about chicanery, just that, you know, too far, too fast. Look, I'm not going to scare anybody. We're way beyond that. I'm not going to make any broad proclamations about what the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stream winning streak means for the broader stock market. That doesn't help. Yes, there are some reasons to believe that it might be bad news, the February of 2000 analogy, but especially if this fever breaks out, breaks, and the market cools off a bit, this kind of action doesn't necessarily mean we're headed for a major top. It means that there might be an opportunity. Here's the bottom line. When you see these kinds of moves, you don't need to freak out. But you've got to be disciplined. Trim some winners like we've been doing for the charitable trust. Don't chase the parabolic stuff like Poet Technologies. And in general, just take a deep breath, keep your cool, and let's wait to see if we have a more benign pullback from these wild past few weeks, setting us up for more gains ahead if the Sox keeps flying. Well, that is when you need to to worry. Mad Money is back after the break.

[Announcer]

Coming up, gold has long been one of the safest hedges available to investors. But could that be changing? Kramer is going off the charts to see what's happening next.

[Trevor Noah]

Hey, what's going on over there? It's me, Trevor Noah. You know me. You don't know me.

[Caller]

Oh, you do.

[Trevor Noah]

I was worried there for a second. Well, if you know anything about me, you'll know. I love having interesting conversations. Conversations where we scratch beneath the surface, like what's really going on in the news? Or what is that celebrity really thinking about that scandal that they had? Or what's the worst way to be a parent? I mean, you want to find that out so you can be the best parent, right? Well, regardless of what it is, this podcast is all about figuring that out. Talking to interesting people who have interesting ideas that give us an interesting perspective on the world that we're living in. So check out what now with Trevor Noah available wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Jim Cramer]

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[Jim Cramer]

Let's talk about gold. I'm always telling you, have some precious metal exposure as a hand hedge against inflation or general economic chaos. For the past couple of years, gold's given you some tremendous performance. Since the end of 2023 geo, it's up roughly 127% from just over 2000 an ounce to just below 4700 an ounce as of today. Put that perspective. The S&P 500, which we all love, right, it's up just 50% over the same period and even the tech heavy NASDAQ 100 is only up 62%. Cold's long term outperformance performance has been a very nice bonus for anyone who believes, like I do, that you should always allocate about say 5 to 10% of your portfolio to the Chinese stuff. But if I'm being totally honest, even though gold prices have rallied like crazy, the yellow metal hasn't been behaving the way I expected it, or it's supposed to. And it certainly has been acting as a hedge for your portfolio. No way. Don't get me wrong, we've had some nasty inflation recent years as well. Sort of global economic disruptions, right? So it makes sense that gold could be a winner. But, and this is a big but, the fact is that it's been trading like a speculative asset, not as insurance for your portfolio for well over a year now. And that's why that's not what I got into it for. This is something we've seen with crypto too. As much as we hope that bitcoin could serve as another effective hedge against inflation geopolitical chaos, it's simply never been how it trades. Instead, bitcoin moves practically in lockstep with higher risk, higher reward tech stocks. That's not one for all tense and purposes, might as well be a leveraged bet on tech. And in times of turmoil, it doesn't protect you from squat. When the stock market's getting pummeled, bitcoin usually doing even worse. Unfortunately, I've noticed that gold started to behave the same way. I don't like this. Look at what happened this year. Gold topped out at just under 5,600 late January. Then sinking started seeing lower right alongside the stock market. When the war with Iran started and oil prices soared, everyone was terrified that higher energy Costs would trigger a brutal inflationary spiral. Historically, investors are worried about inflation. Gold tends to be a winner. But that's not how it's trading In March from February 27, right before the war with Iran started to March 30, when the stock market bottom the S and P and the NASDAQ composite Both fell out 8%. A lot of that was driven by inflation fears. Gold plunged 14% during that same time frame. I got to tell you guys, that's crazy. So at least lately, gold hasn't been having been behaving like insurance policy gets inflation or economic chaos. When we got inflation and chaos last month, precious metal did even worse than the averages. All of which makes me wonder, is it time to take some profits in this incredible run? When gold was playing a static, boring role as a hedge like asset, you didn't have to worry about this kind of issue. You could say it's a high quality problem. Back then you wanted gold in your portfolio no matter what, so it could work when the stocks that you own weren't working. But if gold's trading like just another risk asset, then we also need to consider that it should be trimmed or maybe even sold outright. Because when you're dealing with something that's speculative, you need to be willing to take something off the table. Bring the register. That's why two night we're going off the charts with Larry Williams. Now. He's that legendary technician I love to talk about, market historian. He's been the best in the business since I was a teenager because he's not feeling, not feeling too sanguine about gold. He's with me on this or I'm with him. I don't know. Remember, Larry's got a stellar track record. He nailed the COVID bottom, one of the best calls I've ever seen. More recently at the beginning of the year, he pound table on Costco. And so many people were worried about it going the 800 level. We are for the Chapel Trust, it's up a quick 14% since then, trouncing the 4% gain the SB over the same period. In early March, Larry made an even bolder call telling us he liked the setup for bitcoin. Since then, it's rallied more than 10%. And just two weeks ago, we flagged Shop Shopify. That stocks up a quick 8%, nearly double return you would have gotten from the S and P over the same period. These are some massive returns over a very short period of time. And that's why you should listen when Larry Warren that Things may be starting to look ugly for gold. I'll take a look at this seasonal chart of gold prices in blue based on the past 30 years of data along with the price of gold this year in black. Typically gold tends to sell off starting in mid April, well, you know, a little bit late this time, then drifts lower until it rebounds again in August. In other words, if this was any guy that Larry points out, there's been a strong bias for the price of gold to start declining at this time of the year. Well, you could argue it's, it has started right now. I don't want to bet against Larry here. It's getting ugly. Now let's zoom in on the daily chart of gold with that same seasonal pattern in blue. This goes back to January. Larry notes that the precious metal has not made a new high in nearly three months. Typically you expected to make at least an interim high at this point in the year according to the seasonal pattern. But so far gold's been underperforming that pattern. Which is why Larry expects the usual springtime decline to hit harder this year, maybe much harder. Beyond the seasonal pattern, Larry's always searching for patterns or cycles that seem to repeat themselves over and over again. When you look at a long time span of time, these cycles jump out of the data. So take a look at this chart of gold going back to to late 2021. With Larry's cycle forecast in red. Here's how the gold cycle has been working. About every year and a half, gold has run into selling pressure that either create a decline or a halt to its upward progress. This cycle isn't perfect at predicting the future, but Larry says it's been very suggestive of when we should expect major highs and lows. And right now this 18 month cycle is screaming that gold is due for a pullback. I thought this was the most frightening of all. I mean this chilled me. Just check out the weekly update of gold prices and Larry cycle forecast. He points out that we should expect selling pressure in gold from now through the end of June. At the same time, he doesn't like that silver is performing better than gold of late. I've heard that from other people. Put it all together and he feels like the big up move might be over, at least for now. So here's the bottom line. The charts is interpreted by Larry Williams suggest that the price of gold is very likely to get close clobber from here in the next couple of months. And given how it's been trading lately, more like speculative asset than traditional Store value. I don't blame anyone who wants to ring the register here. Listen to me, if you got a big gain in your gold I'm giving you my blessing and take something off the table. And I never say that about gold. Let's take some calls. Let's go to Frank who is in Texas. Frank.

[Caller]

Well hi Jim. I'm glad to be on again with you.

[Jim Cramer]

I am glad that you called. Frank, thank you for calling us.

[Caller]

A Air Rare Oath and they're acquiring Brazil, Sierra Verde. I understand. I've got it and we talked about it before but is the stock still a good buy and it is up

[Jim Cramer]

100% and what we're discovered, what we're discovering is the companies that are up between say 60 and 100% are rolling over and not going higher. I want to wait for a pullback. Frank. I think it's too risky right here. Let's go to Alex in Oregon. Alex, Booyah.

[Caller]

Jim, thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course, thank you and always shout

[Caller]

out to your staff for being super nice. The company I'm calling about is a pretty interesting one. They're kind of like a value added metal company but they've got exposure to defense and semiconductor like equipment. The company tickers rs they're called Reliance

[Jim Cramer]

Inc. That is a very fine company and I've got to tell you there's no. I happen to like that one right after Nucor. Now Nucor just reported I think terrific numbers this very evening. That's probably going to move up Reliance but there's no problem with that other than the fact that again the stock has had a very nice quick move. Power almost. Power almost. Parabolic. Going higher, higher. But I can't, I gotta tell you, I'm not gonna tell you not to be in that stock. It's just a really really good company and it's not outrageously expensive. Right. The charts as interpreted by Larry Williams suggest that the price of gold is likely to take a beating in the next couple of weeks. Maybe you gotta take something off the table even if you had it for a long time and much more made money at it. Mikey died on Ollie's Bargain Outlet. Been a lot of conflicting information about the impact of data center centers on electricity costs. I'm going to the bottom this by listening to what the CEOs have to say. And oil cost rapid fire. Tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Kramer. What happened to the stock of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings? This is one of the big off price change. So you'd think it would be be thriving when the consumer is feeling the pinch from sky high gasoline prices. But ever since peaking last August the stock has been a real dog. Oh it's as Mercury's largest retailer of closeout merchandise they buy excess inventory from regular retailers for pennies on the dollar and mark it up a bit. Sell it to you at incredibly low prices. And they are low, believe me. They sell the same merchandise for up to 70% less than you find at traditional retailers. The model is buy cheap, sell cheap, keep the store simple, warehouse like and let the bargains do the marketing. So what went wrong here? It's almost always been good. When the economy gets tougher we expect consumers to trade down, start looking for deals in value. Now they go hunting for the place where the same product is meaningfully cheaper. Always is built for this kind of moment. At the same time they also benefit from weakness in traditional retailers because when stores can't move enough merchandise they need to sell it to somebody before they can bring in a new inventory. Always is off not somebody. That's why it's so darn puzzling that the stock's been a real disappointment lately. The stock's down sharply from its 52 week high of $141 and change. Now trading in the low 90s. It's off 16% year to date. This is a stock that went from under $40 in 2022 to more than $140 in 2025. For giving back a huge chunk of that move coming back to 92 and changes of time today highly un always like what caused such a savage decline. Very simply Wall Street's expectations got too high and always execution couldn't keep up. They never totally dropped the ball but there were too many missteps given that the stock was trading at a premium to the other oil price chains which were much more consistent frankly. Late last August Ali reported a clean beat on every level and raised its full year forecast. The stock initially shot up in response but the gains didn't last. When the company reported again last December same store sales came in weaker than expected in the management raised their forecast and still came in light versus expectations. At the time Wall street was expecting something great from Ollie's given the big loss. Had just filed for Chapter Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation. The company didn't come through. When I reported its latest results in March the quarter was fine. Not anything super impressive. Sales came in a bit light compared to expectations but we're still up 16.8% year over year. Same store sales increased 3.6% earnings came in basically in line almost 17% year to date. But I got to tell you I was disappointed by that same store number. That wasn't a perfect quarter but it wasn't all that bad and management's full year forecast was solid. Since then the stocks continued to drift lower and you could easily argue it deserved to come down because the stock was priced for perfection because it had been pretty well perfect. This decline stocks gotten a heck of a lot cheaper if they regain their perfection. At its highs always was trading roughly 37 times earnings down selling roughly 20 times this year's earnings estimates. I can't recall it being this cheap any other time. Again, the problem is not that always is falling apart. The problem is that expectations got too high, stock got too expensive and other value oriented retailers were putting up better numbers generally cheaper stocks. Ollie's became the redheaded stepchild of the group. I mean look comparison my favorite TJX just reported 5% same store sales growth. Ross reported 9 same store sales really good. Dollar General put a 4.3. By comparison Ali's 3.6% same store sales growth is in the most recent quarter is nothing to write home about. It just wasn't as good as everybody else. At the end of the day, Ollie's is not tjx. TJX is best in class global off price machine In a scale consistent brands apparel, home and a broader customer base. Ollie's is much smaller with a niche assortment that's more closeout driven. Its stock deserves to trade at a discount. TGX for a long time always actually traded at a premium. TJX when Covid hit TJX and always were neck and neck. Now TJX sells for roughly 30 times earnings while always trades at 20 times earnings. It's flipped but at the right price I think Ollie's can begin to become interesting again. It's just too much of a discount. Is it interesting right now though? Look, Ali still has a long Runway. They finished last year with 645 locations. Long term plans to double that footprint with the goal of more than 13 stores. This year alone they plan to open 75 new locations. That's a lot of unicorn. On the conference call, CEO Eric Vander Falk stated that by combining 10% unit growth with 2% same store sales growth and equipment to buy back stock always is confident they can keep delivering consistent earnings growth in the mid teens. They certainly have the balance sheet to pull that off. Always ended last year with $562.8 million of cash and investments versus almost no funded debt, though it still carries lease liabilities. Like any brick and mortar retailer, the company bought back $73.8 million worth of stock last year and plans it around $100 billion with the repurchase this year. In other words, this is not a retailer that's fighting for survival. It's a retailer with money, real estate opportunities and a rapidly growing store. Store base stock just got ahead of itself. And don't get me started on the loyalty program. Ali's army is not a paid subscription business, so I can't pretend this is Costco, which you know I love. But the rewards and coupons from the loyalty program create a subscription like behavior, repeat trips, better customer data, direct marketing channel to people who are already or identify themselves as bargain hunters. Those 17 million members of Ali's army, including who yours truly are a real asset in the end always is not TGX and it may not deserve a TGX multiple but also shouldn't like trade like a broken retailer. This is the business that got priced too richly then got punished as investors move toward bigger cleaner value names. Now with the stock back in the 90s and trading around much more reasonable price to earnings multiple, I think the risk reward is a lot more enticing. So I'd say that Ollie's now believe longs on the shopping list. The stock seems more fairly priced and cheap right now even with this multiple contraction. But if the entire market continues to do well, companies outside the data center with low multiple should eventually start to enjoy the fun. Small small, start small, buy gradually and weakness and watch three things same store sales, new store productivity and the gross margin. Dollars can keep delivering positive comps while opening stores without ruining returns and holding that gross margin margin. I think this stock can work again. Bold claim because it's been really bad. Here's the bottom line when you look at Ollie's the business isn't perfect and the stock's been frustrating stocks bad still not the best bargain at current levels, but it's certainly cheaper than it's been in ages. In an economy where everyone wants a bargain always still has a simple premise that resonates. Good stuff cheap and at the right price which may be right here. That may have to the stock to get money's back after delivery.

[Announcer]

Coming up, you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round Next.

[Jim Cramer]

It is time. It's time for the wine route cruise was nearest when you plan to sell and then the lighting round Is over. Are you ready, Ski death? I'm live on Christmas. Richard in Arizona. Richard. Richard.

[Caller]

Afternoon, J.K. how are you?

[Jim Cramer]

I am doing well, partner. What's happening with you?

[Caller]

All right, so short time listener only because short time bestie. One of my questions here is that joby and joby.com.

[Jim Cramer]

the problem with Joby, it's way too risky. If you're just starting out, I want you to be in something that could actually go up over time. You don't feel like you get disgusted and drops real quick. That's what could happen with Joby. Let's be careful out there. I want to go to Texas. Kentucky tax, Kentucky derby to you too.

[Caller]

Jimbo.

[Jim Cramer]

What's going on, my friend?

[Caller]

Oh, lockout expiration on May 5th. Earnings reported May 6th. What are your thoughts on the stock?

[Jim Cramer]

Billion to one. We looked into billion to one. We think it's really good. Diagnostic up. Now, the diagnostic companies themselves have been going down. Whether it be Beckton, Dickinson, whether it be Abbott Labs, They've not been working. That said, this stock never ran to begin with. I think billion one's a winner. Let's go to Howard in Arizona. Howard.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

How you doing? All right, question.

[Caller]

Question is to you. Question is for you of Boston Scientific. Is it all.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, the competition just got too strong for more scientific and they. They're always one step out of the posse and they've just been caught. I think they can come back. I just want to see the stock bottom before I say okay. I think it's okay. Now let's go to Xander, Maryland, please. Xander.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. I'm a spacecraft engineer at MSI Defat and I really admire Rocket Lab due to their dedication and quality. I've been holding it for a while. It's really well. But I'm curious what you think.

[Jim Cramer]

I feel like you. Exactly like you. And when they had a problem two weeks ago, the stock barely went down for a day. And that's about it. I think Rocket Labs is a winner. And that is a speculative stock that I am blessing right here. Let's go to Sam, Pennsylvania. Sam.

[Caller]

Jim, there's a bull market right now in optical electronics. One of the companies that sits at the center of this is Fabrinet. The company is 26 billion to dollar market cap. It's up about 200% in the last year. So I'm curious what you think about Fabrinet here, given the bull market in optical electronics.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, I am. I mean, this is one that I talked about at the top of the show. This is the kind of bull market. You're absolutely right. I do think that it needs to cool though. I think it needs to drop back a little and I don't want you to be caught in that downdraft if you buy it tomorrow. Let's go to Peter and Oklahoma, please. Peter. Hiya, Jim. How are you? I am good, Peter. How you doing?

[Caller]

Congratulations on growing older and wiser.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, thank you. Thank you very much. How can I help?

[Caller]

I'm. I'm kind of off risk this year more than I was last year. And I put together four utilities that I think are going to benefit from the database build out. And the one I'm going to ask you about is Pinnacle.

[Jim Cramer]

Pinnacle hasn't really been a beneficiary of the data build up. It happens to be really good company. So I'm not going to tell you to run from Pinnacle now. It has just had a gigantic move up from where it was just at the beginning of the year. But that said, you know what, it's a good company. Buy some here and then buy some more. Bit lower. Let's go to Jim in North Carolina. Jim.

[Caller]

Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call. I established a position in Talent Energy at the beginning of the year and I'm sitting on a 6.4% paper loss. I was wondering what you think about Talent Energy, whether I should hold or.

[Jim Cramer]

I'll tell you if it hasn't gone up yet. With this market that we've got because of Iran, I don't know how well you're going to do. I mean, look, it's a power infrastructure play without a good yield. That's not for me. Some of them that I really like do have good yields. Let's go to Merle in Kansas.

[Caller]

Merle, Hello, Jim. Love the show.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, thank you, man. Much up.

[Caller]

Hey, I'm calling about a space technology and infrastructure company that I got in at $8 and wanted your thoughts on its upside. It's intuitive machines. Okay.

[Jim Cramer]

This is, this is kind of speculative stock that I'm going to endorse. I like Rocket Labs. I like this. I think any one of these is leading up to the IPO of SpaceX is going to be a winner and I'm going to bless them. When you call them, call me on it because I do think that this is a decent time to speculate on rocket and rocket technology. Let's go to Jared in Pennsylvania, please.

[Caller]

Jared, Jimmy, chill. Love the new book. Thanks for all the great investment.

[Jim Cramer]

Thanks a lot. Thank you.

[Caller]

Acquisition of Top Build. What's Your view on Brad Jacobs and 2X.

[Jim Cramer]

Oh, okay. Brad's a winner. Brad is going to make a series of acquisitions that are going to make it into a great home building, let's say clearinghouse place with just lots of different warehouse, lots of different stuff all over the country. And when rates start coming down, this stock is going to go from 20 to 30. You want to be with Brad Jacobs, not against Allen in New Jersey.

[Caller]

Allen, Tim, a big booyah from Kinneck, New Jersey.

[Jim Cramer]

All right, what's going on?

[Caller]

My question is about a year and a half ago, I purchased the premier domestic semi fabricated aluminum producer. They make aerospace and general products and they reported earnings last week. First quarter earnings were 81% of the previous nine months earnings. And management is excited about increased products, better product mix as Boeing and others do. More aerospace where they make more money.

[Jim Cramer]

So which one, which one are you interested in?

[Caller]

Which one do you Toys are Aluminum

[Jim Cramer]

Hydro Aluminum is just up on such a spike. I know it's absolutely terrific and aluminum's got all the tariff stuff going for it, but I can't recommend it. Just straight up. I'm sorry. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[Announcer]

The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, will the rise of the data center really cause utility rates to increase, explode across the U.S. kramer says not so fast. And he's breaking down.

[Jim Cramer]

Why? Next, Politicians around the country seem to be coalescing around the idea that data centers raise the cost of electricity without providing much in the way of jobs to their communities. But I'm beginning to wonder whether that's the truth. While there have been some bad actors out there, we know that. I've interviewed a string of people who say otherwise. Jeff Martin, the CEO of energy giant Sempra, says that rates have not gone up in the state of Texas despite the data center built there. He pointed out that the data centers can be integrated without significantly increasing the cost of electricity for consumers as long as they spread the cost over a larger area and keep growing production. Patty Poppy, the CEO of PG&E, goes a step further, saying data centers actually reduce the cost of electricity in her California territory. So she welcomes them to come in because of the jobs they provide and the lowering of the cost of electricity. Here's what she told me. Quote, every gigawatt we add will reduce rates by 1% or more. So we are going to continue our load increase rate reducing strategy, end quote. Now, I know that nothing's cut and dry, but this morning on Squawk on the street. We interviewed Jeff Blau is the CEO of Related Companies and chairman of Related Digital about his company securing of $16 billion for data center campus in Michigan, a purpose built one for Oracle. We asked him point blank what will be the impact on rates and on water when the data centers built. Here's what he said.

[Jeff Blau]

When we go into communities, our method for data centers is to make sure that our customers are paying for full freight for energy use. For example, here, Oracle and OpenAI will ultimately create $300 million a year of savings for customers. So not relying on customers to subsidize the energy uses.

[Jim Cramer]

I told him I keep hearing about concerns over water usage and rates going higher. Here's his response.

[Jeff Blau]

This is a closed loop water system. We use less water. We will use less water than the farmers did on this land prior to us building here. When the data center develop, build out started in the country, some of them were not done in the best way, so they weren't paying their full share. They used evaporative water and so millions and millions of gallons of water were using.

[Jim Cramer]

Maybe it has to do with the politicians themselves. Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, welcomed data centers with open arms. Blau said she was, quote, extremely cooperative, end quote. But she also laid down some rules of the road for the industry. When Blau sees the states objecting to these warehouses full of servers, he says they're going to miss out on all the ways data centers can spur health in nearby communities. Michael Semblis, the widely respected strategist at JP Morgan, points out that we may be making an angry mountain out of a meek molehill. US power prices have only risen by 2 cents per kilowatt in real terms on a national level since 2022, from 13 to 15 cents. So he says, quote, some commentary on data centers impacts and is a bit disconnected to the actual data. Unlike many other countries right now, electricity prices are also just 1.4% of household expenditures, end quote. All that said, it's clear that some datacenter builders and occupiers got too good a deal on water and power. They're not blameless, but neither are the politicians who gave away the store. Still, instead of calling for moratorium on data center building, maybe our leaders should demand that data center operators live up to the standards that Governor Whitmer set Michigan and change up the terms of the contracts that have been hurting communities. In the end, there's an easy way to do this. You just need politicians who know a little bit about business and care enough about the details to hold these data center operators responsible as they should. But given our political system, maybe that's too tall in order. I'd like to say there's always more market somewhere from start to find it just for you here made money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.

[Disclaimer Narrator]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please Visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer this is the

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[Jim Cramer]

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