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Charles Schwab Market Update Host
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com market update podcast or find Schwab Market Update Wherever you get your podcasts.
Jim Cramer
My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mav Money. Welcome to Kramerica. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make a little bit of money here. My job, not just entertain, but to educate. Maybe throw in some teachers. Call me at 1-800-743- CNBC. Tweet me imKramer. You might not know this, but I'm a gardener. Pretty lame. Tame hobby by Wall street standards. Built my first garden in 1988. We gardeners, we love sun. We love our flowers. Basking in the glow on a sunny day, we can almost feel the plants grow. But too much sun scorches the heck out of the plants. You can burn out the tomatoes, zucchini leaves, those white freckles that you hate so much. Beanstalks may never appear. So we want rain. We don't just accept it. We coveted I bring this up because rain is to gardening. A sell offs are to the stock market. You should expect them, maybe even hope for them. We just don't realize it at the time. Like today. Dow dip 26 points. SB lost.49%. Nasdaq said.9% was uglier at one point. Pretty ugly. So tonight I want to sing the praises of rainy day sell offs like this. When explain how to use them and why you should like them. First let's look at what happens when you don't get enough rain. That is the Story of the great run up at the end of the dot com bubble from 1999 through the first quarter of 2000. People always referring to but they didn't live through it like I did. If you weren't around back then, you might not know that there was almost no rain in that market. Just scorching sunshine. Day after day we had stocks of worthless companies going up and up and up, nurtured by the sun of reckless bull buying by both individuals new to the market and growth craving mutual funds who just were the scourge of the market. These buyers never took a break. If you got a sell off, it was only for just a couple of hours, not days as buyers could not resist throwing money at anything that looked like an Internet company when that helped them. It was a market full of what we call parabolic moves. That's where stocks go straight up and never even go stairstep. This is a pattern by the way. I don't mind at all what only happened in this Mojave Desert style of bull market. Pretty simple. We went up so much that we were deluged with two things. Secondary offerings from companies. That's right, raising new money. And massive insider selling. Now these bogus stocks moved up on very little by so when they were finally inundated with insider and corporate selling, the stocks just wilted. More than 300 of this newly minted companies in the 1999-2000 period embarked on these wild and crazy trajectories where after gigantic moves, a torrent of selling hit the market and they crushed the individuals and the mutual funds that invested in this dross. People lost hundreds of billions of dollars and many never came back. Now I have spent the last 25 years trying to prevent people from sticking their necks out too far in these kinds of fly by night markets. And I will shout from the rooftops when I see one. When I saw a similar move in the chimerical stocks last year, I labeled it the year of magical investing. To make. To spoof it, make people aware that the whole she bang was living on borrowed time. Sure enough, the entire group collapsed in the fourth quarter. Many people again got hammered, but fortunately nowhere near the destruction of year 2000. Many of you are still with us despite what you may hear right now about the data center and the overextended nature of a handful of stocks. The this period is nothing like that one. Sure, we got too many parabolic moves. But unlike the dot com era, the year of magical investing, the companies that are moving up strongly are real meaning they have sales and earnings and their prospects are extraordinary. Many have great boundaries, especially if they're in memory or storage or processing of data. The bad news though is the if in that sense, Today the Wall Street Journal ran a story that basically said one of the chief pillars of the artificial intelligence rally open I may not be doing as well as you and I thought. It may not have hit key benchmarks as you and I thought. It may have over ordered as you and I thought. And to read between the lines, it may bring the entire edifice down when the company, well, let's just say, tells us the truth. How about that? When I read the piece I was reminded of all the amazing hatchet jobs that I was forced to write my multitude of journalist at haunts when I was younger. They ended up coming easy for me. You know why? Because you just have to pose enough truthful questions that the sum total is a death sentence for whoever you're writing about. After just a few months, you know what? I gave up fighting to be constructive and just decided if my editors wanted a hatchet job, I would give them a hatchet job. This Journal piece was right. My wheelhouse from the old days put the fear of God in people. And you know what? I loved the article. Loved it. Why? Because it gave us the rain I was looking for. We needed some rain to shake out the summer soldiers and the sunshine pictures. Thank you Thomas Payne. This article was filled with such a hailstorm of freight that it finally caused an air related sell off that this market needed so badly. Thank you Journal. It was like rain. But you know what it also reminded me of? Fertilizer. The natural kind. I found it hard to believe that things were as laughable and pathetic at OpenAI, the artificial intelligence kingpin as the article made it sound like what a laughing stock. Hey, maybe that's because. You know what I was thinking? Why do I like? It's because I trust the CFO of Open Air, Sarah Fryer, who I've known for ages and has never bagged me. Now it's entirely possible that she woke up this morning, she said today is the day I'll make a national fool out of Jim Cramer by telling him things are great when they're really awful. But one, I don't think I'm that much of a priority and two, she's too honest for her own good. Sure, open air issues. Oh yeah, but it has not paid to bet against it so far in practice or in theory. Still, if I thought that open I were lucid or nortel Or Global Crossing. This the real, let's just say the worst of the worst of that period. If I thought that you were going to lose money because of this, do you think I wouldn't shout it from the rooftops? I don't play for dinner. Let's go back to the rain metaphor for a moment though. We're on the cusp of the big four tech earnings. Amazon, Alphabet, Met and Microsoft. And that could all disappoint if this article is substance. Honestly that's exactly what this market may need though. We need a shake out of the fair weather soldiers and the fair weather shareholders and we actually need to have some short spilled in. That's what rain does. That's how market can continue. Otherwise it will go bubblicious. We're also seeing a host of other stocks that have gone Parabolic ARM holdings, which I we own for the trust, Dell amd, which I wish we own for the trust and Corning, which reported this very morning these stocks had threatened to touch the sun. Corning flew too close and had its Icarus moment today, tumbling nearly 9%. I told members of the investing club that it didn't really matter what Corning said because it's stocking going parabolic running so much that disappointment was indeed inevitable. Sell, sell, sell. It didn't matter. The company announced two huge clients, something that would have normally sent the stock barreling into the sun instead of reacting to the rain and got clubbed. I say good pointing. You did that too. Even though my trust owned it, owns it. It's what we needed to see. Now do all these power parabolas mean that the entire move is to put. No, not at all. What you can. What can you do to protect yourself from them? Here's an idea. The pros do what we call schnitzeling, taking a little bit out of the stock on each day of the parabolic move. You have 200 shares, you sell 50 and then you wait a little bit, then you sell another 50. If it keeps going higher, don't sell at all. But make sure that you've sold down some. Then if the stock drops 5 to 7% from where you first sold, then you can begin to buy it back slowly but surely 25 shares at a time. The goal is to be able to take advantage of the rain and do some planting further down. Otherwise these cells feel like a seal clubbing expedition where you are the seal. I don't want that. What makes me so certain things are okay? The fourth Industrial Revolution. That's what do I Know if Open Air is going to be the best investment ever. You know what? Frankly I don't care. What I care about is owning the stocks that are best prepared to benefit from the need to have compute, storage and power. The three shortages that are driving the moves like the one in Seagate this very evening. A memory disk drive which just reported the close is up 100 points. Of course I keep the chapter trust diversified. We own a lot of companies for the trust that are not in the more or less maligned datacenter space. We handled the nasty downdraft of tech innuendo when video was 40 or 50 points lower than it is now. We'll handle that too. Here's the bottom. I'm not worried about the rain. My bottom line says newspapers, hedge funds, managers, panelists, commentators, you name it, bring it on. Especially the gas bags who can drum up a storm if they have to. Instead I worry about a lack of rain that will cause this market to self immolate. Fortunately, today we got a nice shower of selling. Don't worry, more showers ahead. Can't handle it. Brian, Umbrella. Brian, North Carolina.
Caller/Viewer
Brian, how's it going? Jim, how's it going?
Jim Cramer
It is going well, Brian. We got to sell off that we start to need in order to be able to cool things off so that we can refresh and go higher again.
Caller/Viewer
Yes, absolutely. So I'm from Charlotte, North Carolina. B of A headquarters are here and I didn't know. I was just calling to see if you thought B of A was a buy or sell.
Jim Cramer
B of A is just a clean, just a plain out buy. The stock first of all is down 4% for the year. That's ridiculous in itself. Second, it sells at 12 times earnings, incredibly well run. This is an example of why I say this market's not dangerous. Bank of America is way too cheap. It should be bought. Let's go to Tony in North Carolina. Tony.
Caller/Viewer
Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call. I'm a first time, first time caller club member and I never miss your show.
Jim Cramer
Oh, thank you buddy. Thank you.
Caller/Viewer
Anyways, back two months ago I bought 300 shares of Marvell Technology at $85. Today I sold half of those shares for 150. So the question I have is what do I do with the shares I have left?
Jim Cramer
You're playing with the house is money, my friend. Here's what you do. You let it run. I think that you've got a total winner in Marvell. And you know what? You're not going to lose. What a great position you're playing with the house's money. Let it run. If it gets to 200, maybe take a little off. Look, I'm not worried about a rain shower once in a while because sell offs, the one we got today, are healthy for any bull market. Without it, we'd be in danger. On Man Money tonight, shares of Nucor are surging at the Steelmakers blowout earnings report and I'm getting the latest from the CEO to see if there's more upside ahead then as we wait for earnings D day tomorrow. I'm running through where things stand so far for the market this earnings season and it's not bad. And baby boomers across the country settle into golden years. I'm sitting down with the CEO of one of the largest operations, Senior housing Communities, to get the latest on the trend. So stay with Kramer.
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Jim Cramer
Look at Nucor go. Last night, the biggest and best dealmaker in America reported an amazing set of numbers that kind of blew me away, frankly. Newcort delivered a 42 cent earnings beat off a $2.81 basis higher than expected sales up 21% year over year. Now that's not just from tariff induced higher pricing. We talk about that in a second. It's also extremely high demand. New quite record quarterly shipment volumes and management gave strong guidance for the current quarter. That's why the stock's been such a monster. More than 90% over the past 12 months, including a quick 4.7% gain today. No one's really counting on this to happen. UBS downgraded the stock table hold from buy to hold, arguing that it's run too much. I think that's wrong given that we're building data centers all over the country, reshoring a ton of manufacturing on top of the fact that steel tariffs protect them from foreign dumping. Don't take it from me. Let's check in with Leon De Pally. He's the chairman and CEO of Nucor. You get a better sense of the quarter. Mr. Pallia, welcome back to money.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Hey, Jim, thanks for having me on.
Jim Cramer
Well, I got to tell you, Leon, this is one where I just did not think it was possible for someone in, in this economy, which everybody knows is just okay, not great for you to say that our core business is seeing incredible demand, incredible growth. How is that possible?
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Well, look, Jim, I would tell you there are segments of our economy that are doing incredibly well. And Nucor is everywhere. We're touching the oil sector, we're touching the energy, energy infrastructure, we're touching towers and structures, enclosures, data centers, advanced manufacturing, semiconductor, the chip plants, the infrastructure, and so automotive. So again, we're spread out. We're so diverse. We offer a capability set that no other domestic steel producer anywhere can even come anywhere close to. And so that coupled with a demand picture unlike I've seen in some cases, Jim, in my 30 years at Nucor, we have backlogs, order entry rates that are unparalleled that we've never seen before.
Jim Cramer
Now, one of the things I think people should realize, we go out of our way to find some little nook or cranny that does well in the data center. Let me posit something. Whether it be the steel, the towers that you need to get the electricity in, whether it be the four walls of the data center, whether it be the any of what the trucks have to bring in, where they into the loading docks. Every single thing is Nucor.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Yeah, I'd love to agree with that in almost everything. Right. So we are, we're touching a vast array of the modern economy and again Jim, we've invested $20 billion over the last seven years to position us. And so you know you mentioned it on the opening about tariffs man, this is not tariff induced. This is the thoughtful deliberate execution by 33,000 men and women who are focused singularly on creating long term economic profitable growth for our shareholders, our communities, our team members, where we live and ultimately delivering a capability set for our customers that are unrivaled. And so the military complex, the advanced plate and structural grades that no one else can produce anywhere in the country gives us a unique advantage Jim that puts us at quite frankly where our stock price is. It's great but we are just getting warmed up. We are yet to see the full demand in pent up earnings cycle from the investments we made have yet to hit our balance sheet. So it is incredibly optimistic not just about the next quarter but in the years to come we are still undervalued and we still trade at a discounted multiple.
Jim Cramer
Now again I think it's important for rec to recognize, I want people to know this, that because we had tariffs you were able to invest in many cities that no one's ever heard of. Those are the ones that are most troubled in our country. You were able to put boots on the ground there, change the trajectory of those towns, put the best, most current technology in have lowest cost steel and made it in America. And it is a virtuous circle that people don't understand Leon, they don't get it.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
No, not at all. And look Jim, the same thing was said in 2018 when 232 came in. It was all that's going to prop up the industry falsely and create you know, a demand cycle that's not real or pricing that's not real. Well what did we see four months later Jim we are in a commodity business and supply and demand are ultimately always going to dictate that pricing. We are not up because of terrors now it is created a leveled playing field and I applaud the administration for creating that. But it is the investments, it is the thoughtful long term investments that we've made that create the uplift that Nucor seen and you're going to continue to see us rise because of those investments and quite frankly because of the Best manufacturing team assembled anywhere in the world is executing at an incredibly high level.
Jim Cramer
Okay, so tell me where right now you guys are always building where? What is the next frontier for Nucor.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Look, we are again on the end, tail end of a $20 billion campaign that culminates in Mason County, West Virginia with the most state of the art advanced sheet mill that we're building there. We couldn't be more excited about that. Again, it's going to bring a unique capability set in a community that man, we love being there. Our team's there, we live and work in the communities where we build. But Jim, our mission statement, to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture is alive and well. We're not done. We are a growth company and again, we are just getting warmed up. So you're going to see Nucor continue to reward our shareholders by providing at least 40% of our net earnings back to them and share repurchases or dividends. But all that extra free cash flow, all the money that we're continuing to make are going to get put back into the business, either in the core or in the adjacent companies like the doors and the door technology companies, the warehouse companies, the towers and structures plants that we're building, three of which one up and running and the next two that will run later this summer and then early next year are insulated metal panels, buildings group again, the data center and warehouse groups. So again we're going to continue to invest in the white hot megatrends in this economy like energy, energy infrastructure, and continue to diversify this amazing company that I get to lead.
Jim Cramer
Now, some of the projects are kind of, you're doing border wall that requires a lot of steel, I imagine.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Oh, it is literally hundreds of thousands of tons, Jim. It is a wonderful boost to what we're doing. Our tubular teams continue to supply that and are doing an amazing job. Our products groups continue to pump out the steel that they need. But yeah, the border wall has been a significant volume over the last few months and will continue well throughout this year into 2027.
Jim Cramer
Well, Leon, I want to congratulate you on your earnings, but most importantly on your being a man of your word. You told us many times that if you were given a chance to be able to not have a flood of imports, you would build up in this country a network of mills that would put a lot of people to work, change towns and produce the lowest cost and best deal. You did every one of those things. People should recognize that there are business people that really can change the world and you are one of them. Thank you Leon To Palion Chair and CEO of Nucor.
Leon De Pally, CEO of Nucor
Thank you Jim. Appreciate you having me on.
Jim Cramer
Course may have money spectators
Mad Money Announcer
coming up as we count down to an earnings day for the ages. Kramer's taking a look at how things are going in The S&P 500 so far this quarter.
Jim Cramer
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Jim Cramer
Tomorrow night is what I've taken to calling Earnings D Day. When we hear from that one. Not two, three but four different mega cap tech names, all members of the formerly Magnificent Seven notice, formerly Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. This is the first time I can recall we've had all four at one day. It could be miserable or it could be heaven. After tomorrow's quartet of big tech earnings, we get results from Apple on Thursday night. Often these two days have become a turning point for earnings season and by the way, it's not always a positive one. That's what we've seen for the last two quarters when this cluster of mega cap tech quarters coincided with a local top for the market. Think about that. On Wednesday, October 29, the S&P 500 peaked right before Alphabet, Microsoft and Metal all reported earnings after the close that day with Amazon Apple coming the next evening. That time Wall street like what it heard from Alphabet and Amazon. But Microsoft got clobbered and Meta got taken to the woodshed. In the end, all of the major averages temporarily peaked on October 29. The S& P didn't get back to those levels until late December and the NASDAQ composite only got there a couple of weeks ago. I think the inability of the mega caps to blow away the numbers like we had gotten used to for about four years, I think that was part of the end of the year morass. The same thing happened last earnings season. On January 28, the S& P put in a relative high before Microsoft and Better reported that night, with Apple reporting the next night, while Alphabet and Amazon generously came a week later. Last time it was Microsoft again that weighed us down with the stock falling 10% the next day. This one's been become a serial underperformer. From then on the averages kept drifting lower right through the beginning of the war with Iran when they really fell through the floor. The big story of last earnings season was the damage from AI displacement for all sorts of software stocks, particularly the software service stocks, then later enterprise software. But we can't ignore the fact that the market once again peaked right before we heard from a cluster of mega cap tech companies. We also didn't care for all the capital spending these companies committed to, some of them spending well in excess of their company's cash flow, which is the kiss of death for many of the traditional buyers of stock. And now tomorrow we have four of them along with Jay Powell's final Fed meeting, many other earnings reports and whatever other curveballs the market roses. Full disclosure, My Channel Trust owns shares in all four of the Make A Cap Tech Company. It's been a great idea to do that. So you know what I'm rooting for. In particular, I'll be interested in hearing what these companies have to say about their data center spend. And more importantly, we'll be watching how the market reacts to any companies that say they're spending more than they previously planned. Because unless they see big revenues match with that spend, well, those stocks are going to get crushed too. That's my prediction. You can't keep spending without a matching revenue at this point because things will get frantic tomorrow. Given that it's earnings D day. I think a few minutes tonight to cover how the earnings season has gone. So far we've bought about more than 100 companies reported. Let's start with good news. And to be clear, there's plenty of good news. Looking at The S&P 500, we've heard from 170 companies so far. The vast majority of them are beating expectations on both the top and bottom lines while posting impressive year over year growth. Remember, there's kind of a slight slowdown going on and these companies are crushing it. Of Those hundred and seventy companies that have reported so far, 70% of them have posted revenue beats. It's not bad. Thirteen had in line sales. Hey, I'll take that. And only this number had misses 17 on average. And weighted by market cap, revenues are trending about 2% above expectations. I'll take that on the earnings. By the way, do you remember how many people told you was going to be lousy? Well, they were wrong. I'd like to get their names and just read them. But there's. It's. I don't have that much time. And the show ends at 7 on the earnings or what I guess 6 in different times. Of 5 on the earnings front, the numbers look even better. 78% of these companies have beaten bottom line expectations thus far. Another 9% delivery in line earnings. Just 13% of discipline in the bottom line. And I can get these earnings results have come in 10% above the expectations so far this earnings season. That's huge. In terms of aggregate growth rates, sales are up roughly 9% year over year for the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far while their earnings per share up a stunning 24% year over year. No. 1 of the price earnings multiple so so called high of the S and P. That's massive earnings growth. And it goes a long way toward explaining why the SB has been able to press higher, sitting at record highs just yesterday. Despite all that's going on with the war in Iran and uncertain path for interest rates. In fact, look at this chart which plots the S&P 500 in dark blue. Okay. As well as the consensus estimates for aggregate S&P 500 earnings per share this year in light blue. Okay. With the consensus estimates in red. All right, that's for 2027. There it is. All right. What this shows is that even as the market was rolling over in February and March, the earnings estimates were still climbing higher. That in turn means the S&P 500 was getting cheaper as it went lower. Which is part of the reason that as bad as things felt in March, we were ultimately able to snap back and experience a borderline miraculous rally. It's also why you have to keep committing money regularly. That's my theory. It's been my theory Regular commitments By the way, if you're curious, the SB 500 currently trades at just under 22 times this year's earnings estimates, which is a bit elevated versus the 10 year average of 20.4 times earnings, but well below the 25 times earnings level where the index topped out back in day the late 2024 and 2025, then again in late 2025 and early 2026. And remember, when you have that kind of earnings beats, it's okay to pay a little more for the entire market. So like I said, there have been plenty of positives this earnings season. Now, the one less than ideal trend that I've noticed, even if it's not a particularly surprising development, is that many companies are declining to raise their full year forecasts higher, either because of higher oil prices specifically or higher or just macroeconomic uncertainty resulting from the war in Iran. But you know what? I'm not too worried about this either, as even as it tends to throw cold water on Wall Street's bullishness, the simple fact is the war with Iran really does some uncertainty the price of oil. And that makes it harder for all sorts of companies to make forecasts about the future. As you'll hear later in the show, it hasn't been enough to do significant damage your economy yet. But we can't predict how the negotiations with Iran will go, which means we don't know where oil is going to hit. So it's a big cost of business for a lot of companies. So tough to figure out what the future looks like. And don't forget, companies don't like to raise their numbers if their first quarter, they like to do it the second quarter. That's tradition. If this drags on, it could start to impact companies to a larger extent than we've seen so far. Plus, considering that we're only 1/4 into this year, it makes sense for companies to stay cautious, right? Leave their full year guidance in place. Even if they had a good quarter, raising guidance during first quarter earnings season is a sign of, I think, too much confidence. Some would say hubris. So don't get too worried that it doesn't happen very often. I see a lot of people fretting saying why didn't they raise it? They have no memory for what most corporate America likes to do, which is to say, you know what, we'll talk to you after the second quarter. Here's the bottom line on the eve of earnings D day. I have to point out the first quarter earnings season is going pretty darn well so far. Let's hope that tomorrow we can break the recent trend of mega cap tech earnings leading to downturns for the broader averages. But whatever happens, I'll be here to break it all down for you. I think I got some good theories. I think we'll do well together. That's the way I play it. You should too. I'm going to Sam in Washington. Sam.
Caller/Viewer
Hi James.
Jim Cramer
I'm doing well. How about you?
Caller/Viewer
I'm doing well. Thank you. Thanks for taking my call. I'm a man. And thanks for the work you are doing educating all of us on investment and financing financial issues. My Honeywell, last year they completed this spin off of the aerospace and I think there are two more to go. The automation and the.
Jim Cramer
That's true. Here's what's going to happen June 30th they're going to be able to split the company up. It's going to be industrial automation and could be airline. We already split off the chemical. I have to tell you this aircraft business is going to be a fantastic business. One day the war in Iran will end. People realize that the aircraft business is kind of a work in progress. They're going to fix it and it's going to be just like Dupont. I think once they get out of this breakup Murgatroy purgatory. And people don't respect Honeywell. They don't respect it and they're making a very big mistake. Look, things could change with tomorrow's earnings onslaught but for right now, this earnings season shape has been pretty darn good when no one's talking about because everyone's so gloomy everywhere I go. Watch where we have money. Had shares of Ventas are up more than 25% in the past year. So should you own this operator of senior housing communities? I've got the CEO on CEO and I got to tell you something, you're probably going to want on the stock if she talks. And as the word Iran drags on without a resolution, I'm a assessing the impact it could have on the rest of earning season and beyond. And oil calls rapid fire in tonight's history of the lightning round. So stay with Cleaver. Last night we got results from Ventas, the healthcare focused real estate investment trust that makes most of its money from senior housing properties. Regular viewers know. I think this is just a fantastic business. As my Fellow baby boomers keep getting older. This stock nearly doubled over the past two years and it jumped more than 3% today in response to that terrific quarter. A clean beat and raised set of numbers. So can it keep running? Let's take a close look with Deborah Cafaro, the chairman and CEO of Ventas to find out. Welcome back to Money.
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Great to be here, Jim.
Jim Cramer
I'm so glad to see you there. It's been five years. During that period we have all these different stocks that people Talk about this Mag 7 Orange Disk Drives and stuff and you know, stuff that is, I'd say people don't understand at all like I like what Nvidia does candidly. And then we have what you do and we all understand what you do. But you managed to put together 19% compound annual growth rate. How is that possible?
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Well, 19% over since the beginning of 2000. It's been a great business fairy tale and it's really built on demographics and we really serve a large and growing aging population which is just now really starting to accelerate when the baby boomers start turning 80 in 2026.
Jim Cramer
But you know, you told, you told me and we went back and forth this for a long time. You told me this was going to happen. So listen, one day there won't be enough capacity. People stop building. They were building. One day people are going to turn. There'll be a tipping point. And it didn't have, didn't happen. And then it hit and now I don't see any end to it. I think you could have 10 years of this.
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Well, it's kind of amazing really. We've had five years of double digit mid teens growth in our senior housing business. And yet the best is yet to come. When you look at 2026, the front end of the baby boomer starts turning 80. There's about 70 million of those people and we have an acceleration over the next couple of years. And then the growth really for another decade continues at very, very high levels. And that's the demand that we see in the, in the, in the windshield.
Jim Cramer
And short term you have great occupancy rate but you could take in more people. And then you describe in all your work how, how basically diffuse this business is. You could put together with your shop, with your, the portfolio that we're talking about, you could put together years of acquisitions and you still wouldn't be a big. Made a huge factor in this business.
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Yes. I mean one reason we've been able to deliver these high returns is that we have a huge Organic growth opportunity here in the US we're about 87% occupied. So there's a multi year growth and value creation that just comes from rate and occupancy growth in the existing portfolio which is 900 communities across the US and Canada and the UK plus we're a consolidator. It's a very large segment, very fragmented. We're purchasing and investing billions a year in senior housing communities in the best markets with lots of demand and low supply. And at the same time, as you mentioned, starts in senior housing business are at historic lows. 1500 units were started in the first quarter. That compared again. That's, that's all.
Jim Cramer
With all the millions of people that are going that, that are going to need you.
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Yes. And we're really proud to offer this value proposition to seniors and their families. And the demand is there at the doorstep. I mean that's really this broad based demand is that we're at the beginning stages of is really what's driving these, you know, mid teens returns for five years and hopefully as we look forward.
Jim Cramer
Well, we had a call the other day was saying what's my favorite in senior housing? We know what that's going to be. But maybe they were asking about Welltower, Welltower Janus Living. What is the investment case for you that would be. You would never bash competitors. I don't want you to do that. But what is the investment case to go for you versus say a well tower?
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
Well, this, this multi year noi growth opportunity that we have. The fact that we're 87% occupied in the U.S. our valuation still has room to run and we have a culture and a differentiated platform that makes us an attraction for all the operators out there managing senior living. And so we've built a business that is unique. We stand for something which is really a commitment to delivering results and that's really important to us into winning together with our employees, with our residents and their families and with our operators.
Jim Cramer
And what happens when you buy a place? You have plenty of money. I imagine the place looks okay. What does it look like a couple of years after you've gone to work on it?
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
I mean we've grown to a $56 billion enterprise company. We have an enormous amount of financial strength and access to capital. And when we acquire communities, it's very important to us that they're in good market and that we keep the physical plant in a way that you would want your parent or yourself to live in. And it's really been proven that people who live in our communities feel more secure, they feel safer. They get all the socialization of being around others and that's really, really important, that value proposition. And so we have almost 100,000 seniors living in our communities now and we want to keep them in a condition that makes it feel like home for them.
Jim Cramer
Well, look, I want to congratulate you. You said if you just stay with it and there was a long period where they kept building and building and we weren't that close to the baby boomers. Now it's year after year after year, your numbers are going to go higher. Congratulations to Deb Cafaro, the chairman and CEO of Ventas. It's vtr. Another high. Great job, man. Bunny back after the break.
Mad Money Announcer
Coming up, you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round next.
Jim Cramer
It is time. It's time for the light. My step planet sound and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Ski die ton light on crimson. Let's start with Peter Messius. Peter.
Caller/Viewer
Jim. What a privilege to be able to speak with you. Thank you for taking my call.
Jim Cramer
Thank you. What's happening?
Caller/Viewer
Well, I'm researching a volatile and highly speculative biotech company working with CRISPR technology. But I just can't make sense of all the metrics and data on this stock, especially that over 20% of its float is sold short. Is it a buy, hold or forget about it? I would really appreciate your guidance on ticker symbol B E A M. Okay.
Jim Cramer
I'll tell you, Beam is a speculative situation. They do have some formulations. We don't want to buy any stocks because they're heavily shorted, because they're all by nature heavily shorted because they don't have any earnings. I would buy this if you thought that they've got something that can save a lot of lives. That's it. Otherwise, move on. Let's go to Brandon in New York. Brendan.
Caller/Viewer
Yeah.
Jim Cramer
Thank you very much. Hey, I've got a stock I've invested in and it's fluctuating like an index on a bad day. I can't figure out what's up with Owndos. Well, Ondas is a me too company. It's a company that is losing a lot of money that does intelligent autonomous systems like every other company. I'd rather have to find something new and different that is distinct. And I don't see anything distinct about Ondas. Let's go to Michael in Texas. Michael.
Caller/Viewer
Hey, Jim, Good to hear from you. My stock is Halliburton.
Jim Cramer
I Like Halliburton very much. I think that it's the right. It's been a good stock even in a bad oil market. So it's been a great stock in a good oil market and I continue to think it's very inexpensive. Let's go to Sandy in Colorado. Sandy. Hi, Jim. Thanks for having or for taking my call. Of course.
Caller/Viewer
I'm. I've been holding a stock since about 2022 for about four years and it's relatively just been flat. I believe it recently got an upgrade and I wanted to know what your thoughts are on Snapchat.
Jim Cramer
You know what, I'm a growth buyer and this company does not have growth and that's why the stock has been so awful. Let's go to Cody in Pennsylvania. Cody,
Caller/Viewer
I'm a longtime listener from the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania.
Jim Cramer
Well, I love it, man. You're just around the corner from me. What's happening? Nokia is at a 16 year high. Just raised guidance and I'm in it
Caller/Viewer
for the long term.
Jim Cramer
What are your thoughts on Nokia? I think it's a winner. It's back. I can't believe it. It finally did come back and I got a panel to hand it to those guys for sticking around because, wow. I think it's got a lot of good technology. Let's go to Ryan in Virginia, please. Ryan.
Caller/Viewer
Hi, Jim.
Jim Cramer
How's it going? Not bad. How are you, Ryan?
Caller/Viewer
Doing well, doing well. I'm calling today to ask about ccj.
Jim Cramer
Kimiko coordinate. I like CCJ because it's a real uranium company. It's not a mock uranium company that a lot of the people come up with. You've got a winner in ccj. Okay. Let's go to Rebecca in New York. Rebecca.
Caller/Viewer
Hi, Mr. Kramer. A pleasure talking to you.
Jim Cramer
I have Novo Nordisk.
Caller/Viewer
Should I sell it and buy Organon? I'm not sure I'm pronouncing.
Jim Cramer
No organ is done. New Organon's got a takeover bid. Congratulations to them. They got bought by an Indian company. Fantastic. I don't want you to own Norman Nordisk either though. I think that they're, they are not good at what they do. What I would do if you want to stick in that business is I would go buy some jj. I think JJ is well down from its high and it's got a great balance sheet. She's doing many, many things. Right. That's the one you want. Let's go to Tim in Connecticut, please. Tim.
Caller/Viewer
Tim, great show.
Jim Cramer
What do you think of Harley Davidson? You know what the technology's absolutely terrific. But the actual earnings, they're just blah. I can't go for it. I can't recommend a non growth stock on this show. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round.
Mad Money Announcer
The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up. With the war in Iran showing no sign of abating, Cramer's growing increasingly concerned about where the market is headed. He's elaborating next. Tomorrow, kick off the trading day with Squawk on the street live from post nine at the nyse.
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Thank you for that.
Jim Cramer
I appreciate it dogged me the way out, but I don't mind. It didn't mean anything to me. It means not to me when they don't shake my hand. I don't care. It doesn't matter.
Mad Money Announcer
Get over it, man. It all starts at 9:00am Eastern.
Caller/Viewer
Hey, Jim, your mission has been very successful in our family. I listen to your show multiple times a week for investing knowledge. I just want to say thanks. I love your show. Thanks for always looking off the girls guy.
Deborah Cafaro, CEO of Ventas
A huge thank you for all, all
Caller/Viewer
you've done to make me a better investor. I got to call Kramer because I can't make a move without this guy.
Jim Cramer
I want to make people better investors if they make money. Fantastic. Let's go to work. Oh, yeah, there's the war. That's pretty much what I said this morning. Let's walk on the street. I regret it the moment the words came out of my mouth. You can't asterisk the war with Iran. We've had wars before, many of them, maybe too many of them. And they could often be asterisks because they were fighting the geopolitical equivalent of the Washington generals. This is not like those wars. Iran is a country that turned out to be a lot harder to reckon with than the administration thought going into this. I know President Trump believes we're winning and I sure hope so. However, there are many leaders around the world who are very worried that it's taking too long to get the Iranians to the peace table to hammer out an agreement that restores the status quo when this strait ever moves, while eliminating the Iranian nuclear program, which I think would qualify as progress. It's difficult because if they haven't come to the peace table after all this bombing, I don't know if they'll just roll over because they're broke. Iran has been under severe international sanctions for decades. They used to be it broke. Let's go back though. Right now we're suffering from another bout of Inflation brought on by the government. Different government, different inflation, but inflation nonetheless. When the administration was constantly saying that the war was almost over, you could write off the inflation as a necessary short term blip. But now we're in siege mode. And there's nothing temporary about a blockade. They can take ages to break the country's will. We've had Cuba under embargo for more than 60 years and it hasn't done a thing to overthrow that regime. We're beginning to see the impact on earnings that whether it be the price of fuel or plastic or transit, the price increases feel disturbingly like what we went through during COVID We were supposed to get deflation from AI, but tell me if you've seen any send in the robots for Too late. At the same time, the war starting to cut into world travel. As we heard from booking holdings this very evening, that's hurting all the hotels and resort stocks. The cruise ships and airlines are miserable. The companies that maintain planes like RTX and aerospace, they're getting hit hard to big chunk of the market. They were fine in the first month of the war. Now they're actively cutting numbers. At a certain point we're going to see the reticence of the consumer not just at the pump but at restaurants and retailers. Then it'll cut into the auto sales and home sales. Pretty soon we're talking about a major slowdown at the same time as prices are escalating. And let's be real, we're not ready for this. We were prepped for a short Venezuela, Venezuela style engagement. Not a significant conflict where we burn through all our ammo and have to wait for the Iranians to come to the peace table without a carrot. I don't want to lead every show I do in the war. I tend not to bring it up unless it rolls the bond market. But it's getting to seem pretty germane to bring it up almost every day as a function of input costs or spending restraints or consumer indecision that we hear about because it's earnings season. Going forward, I think earnings season will be increasingly colored by the cost of the war. Then we can no longer pretend it won't hurt our companies. If it doesn't end soon, then we have to expect numbers to come down for huge swath of businesses. Unless Iran caves to our wishes, those numbers won't bounce back anytime soon. Like I said, as always, bull market summer, I promise. Just for you. Right here on Man Money. I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.
Mad Money Disclaimer
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer Snoring Gasping during sleep?
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In this episode of Mad Money, Jim Cramer uses vivid gardening metaphors to explain the necessity of market downturns (the "rain") for healthy investing. He addresses recent sell-offs, draws parallels to historical market bubbles, and emphasizes the importance of volatility for long-term growth. The episode features interviews with Nucor's CEO (steel industry outlook), Ventas' CEO (senior housing boom), a detailed S&P 500 earnings breakdown, and rapid-fire investment advice in Cramer’s classic "Lightning Round." Throughout, Cramer underscores managing risk, seizing opportunity during “rainy days,” and preparing for high-stakes earnings announcements amid global uncertainty, especially regarding the ongoing war with Iran.
[01:00–10:10]
Notable Quote:
“Thank you, Journal. It was like rain. But you know what it also reminded me of? Fertilizer. The natural kind.” (Jim Cramer, 06:44)
[10:10–12:16] & [39:24–43:22]
[14:15–22:08]
Notable Quote:
“It is the investments… that create the uplift that Nucor’s seen… We are just getting warmed up.” (Leon De Pally, 18:39)
[24:00–31:56]
[33:38–39:07]
Notable Exchange:
Jim Cramer: “You said if you just stay with it… your numbers are going to go higher.” (38:44)
[43:52–47:33]
On Market Sell-Offs:
“What makes me so certain things are okay? The fourth Industrial Revolution.” (Jim Cramer, 08:44)
On Diversification:
“We own a lot of companies for the trust that are not in the more or less maligned datacenter space. We handled the nasty downdraft of tech innuendo… We'll handle that too.” (Jim Cramer, 09:10)
On Big Tech Spending:
“You can't keep spending without a matching revenue at this point because things will get frantic tomorrow.” (Jim Cramer, 27:54)
Original Tone: Energetic, metaphor-rich, practical, sometimes cautionary, always aiming to educate and empower retail investors.