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Jim Cramer
My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Bad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Bad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to save you some money. My job is to put a day like today into context because it's a bad one. So call me 1-800-7-3CNBC tweet me Jim Cramer. The implosion of our markets continues. And it's so obvious that this is a manmade obliteration. It's probably not over today's action. Dow plunged 2231 points. S&P plummeted 2.97%. Nasdaq only knows Dive 4.5.82%. Remind you that we're in one of three modalities. Okay, we could be in for the grips of a quick bear market. Allah. The COVID220 model. We could be in for a 2000 style bear market where tech was laid to waste for a very long time. Or it might be the big kahuna. That's the one of October of 1987 where the market went down hard for three days. Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. And then it went even harder on a day we call Black Monday where The market fell 22%. The President doesn't try to reach out and reward these countries and companies that play by the rules. In the 1987 scenario, the one where we went down three days and then down 22% on Monday has the most cogency. We will not have to wait out too long will we will know by Monday. Fortunately we had an excellent set of employment numbers say at least it makes it less likely a crash will necessarily lead to a recession. But if President Trump stays intransigent and does nothing to ameliorate the damage that I saw these last two days, I'm not going to be constructive here. I will contain my anger, but only because I lived through 87 and in the end I came out okay. I was in cash for the crash. I know what this feels like. Oh and if Europe moves against our fabulous tech companies next week then I will be furious. That I promise you. Because it should not happen. None of this has to happen. Which brings me to the game plan for next week. First, if the President does nothing and the Europeans create reciprocal tariffs against our tech companies, we have a very good chance. I want to be very methodical and not unemotional. We're very chance we'll crash. It could be like black money Bettyism. I don't see why it shouldn't. But if President Trump realizes it would be best to help our companies, especially the ones that are hung on tariffs, then we could have a rebound. We will soon find out what CEOs can do to deal with tariffs because Levi Strauss reports on Monday it manufactured G's all over the map from Japan, Mexico, Turkey, other places in Asia. Levi's offered some weaker guidance last quarter and it got hammered a Powell spend a mixed bag people. The last company has spoken the space we just did a piece on a PVA said very good things. Calvin Klein, Tommy Elfman doing well maybe Levi Strauss made the quarter to a few weeks ago Walgreens decided to sell out to a private equity firm, a storied name see you later the company that's buying them Sycamore. I think this was a great deal for Walgreens because otherwise I fear it would go the way of the zombie firm that is writing. But let's see if things have gotten better or maybe there's some real buyers remorse. Nothing would shock me. Tuesday night we hear from Cal Maine. Now normally I wouldn't care at all about some egg company but eggs were the key driver of the most serious inflation experienced in ages. So maybe they can explain what the heck happened Wednesday. Delta reports I expect an awful number. They already told us things aren't so great but as business stayed weak from their last report or maybe Even weaker. I worry that the travel bull market is completely done, especially if we're going to go into recession. After the close, we get results. One of the most controversial companies in America, and that's Constellation Brands stc. This little company, the maker of Modelo and Corona, simply can't be sure yet what the tariff impact is. If it's imported Mexican beer will even will be tariffed. At what rate will it not be Tariff will be the old tariff that we had, which was not tough to tell. As someone who's trying to figure out the tariff for phosphora, our Mexican mezcal banned. That can't be made here. We're trying to figure is it 25, is it 10? Maybe it's exempt. I have no idea. How will Constellation approach things though? I want to know. This company already has enough problems with the existential threats of anti craving GLP1, drugs, cleaning, cravings for beer and the health and wellness trends that discourage alcohol. The last thing it needs is tariffs. This stock plagued my travel trust until we finally jettisoned it at a big loss and I think it's become totally problematic. Like all the liquor companies here, I suspect Constellation has also been hurt by Trump's immigration crackdown because so much of their customer base is Hispanic. Hard to see what the company can do about any of this. It's a once great story. There are so many things to keep in mind when the White House starts to raise tariffs. Right now I'm most worried about inflation, which is something that'll be, let's say, something we'll be thinking about a lot when, when we have the CPI report. This is what really matters, See, because this is where we are not going to be able to cut rates if these numbers start being bad. Inflation became and it was no longer going the Fed's way even before the tariffs. Now it's going to go straight up. Which is why. Well, what always happens with tariffs except that they're so high that nobody buys anything. Always a possibility given the scale of Trump's tariffs. There's no world where they don't raise prices on the consumer, on you. It's never good when the Fed's trying to cut rates and get the economy going. I think the Fed's locked in a box here and can't do nearly as much as they might like because they don't want to spur another round of inflation on their own. Of course, that just increases the likelihood of a recession and many of these banks are coming out and talking about that. We're going to have when they look at the 10 year below 4% and they're saying must be recession. Did anyone in the White House think that these things could happen now? Anyway, we just profiled a company called CarMax the other night reports Thursday and when new cars get tariffs used cars become a lot cheaper by comparison which should spur sales for CarMax. The stock's no longer cheap selling at 23 times this year's earnings. But I think this might be a real investment given the fact that the president seems unwilling to back down. Then again if we get a recession it doesn't matter. You don't want to own anything connected to autos and recession Friday. Well here we go. Earnings season and it's real big. It officially kicks off with the big time financials reporting these stocks have been crushed because Wall street now expects a nasty downturn in the economy. The declines here are staggering. Take J.P. morgan's one of the best banks in the world. But people are incredibly skittish about paying up for bank ahead of an unexpectedly horrendous capital market. So instead of paying 14 times earnings they're now paying just 11 times earnings and the stocks declined from 280 to 210. That's down 17 points today alone by the way. That's an unfathomable journey down from the mid February high where we believed in a revival of financial activity spurred by aggressively pro business president. Hmm. Morgan Stanley got the Corby deal done and thank heavens and done at a better price than I thought the could be expected given how the press was hectoring the deal so much. Otherwise there's not all that much to celebrate. Morgan Stanley though. I keep hoping that something will fall in the capital markets but if anything it has just gotten worse because of the tariff issues. Travel Trust owned several financials including BlackRock and Wells Fargo, both of which are just getting clobbered beyond all recognition. I don't think that they should be but so what? Wells is a national bank that was doing incredibly well until it ran to a macro buzz saw that was the present. I think it's now outrageously cheap. But what, what the heck is CEO Charlie Scharf supposed to say on his call when he's asked about the future? He has no choice but to be cautious and circumspect in the stock. Can't rally in that kind of environment. The best for last BlackRock. I think that CEO Larry Fink, perhaps the most thoughtful exec in the group will give us a much needed gut check about what happened here. Where we had a well oiled economy all set for a pro business president to take it to the moon and. And instead what we've gotten is a journey to the center of the earth. It's an incredible conundrum and I really hope Fink will take a moment to tell us what he sees. We need to know. Look, this was a terrible day on top of a terrible week. It feels like one of those crash moments in October of 87, which I lived through and traded. The eve of Black Monday, that Friday was terrible. I remember going home thinking, I can't believe how much money I lost, but I sold everything in that Monday. You come in and boom. Our only real hope is that the president comes up with something that can turn this bear into a bull. And he can do it even as he seems unwilling to scale back the tariffs. All he has to do is offer our companies a path to get out of this hell that they did not create and they do not deserve. But the bottom line, that's a very glass half full hope and what feels like a glass totally empty market. Maisie, a year after the crash of 87, you were up on most stocks. So despair not, because at least I have your back. Scott in Minnesota. Scott.
Scott
Well, thank you. Hard working man, Jim Cramer.
Jim Cramer
Not hard. Not hard enough. Not this week. I should have worked harder. My wife was back to spend some time with her shouldn't.
Scott
Well, I tell you what, you are. You are. You've taught all our club members and viewers to, you know, look at all this stuff with calm discipline, or at least to attempt to stay calm.
Jim Cramer
Thank you. Thank you, Scott. Thank you. And that's what we want. Because even in 87 it was fine by. By 88, and in 2007 it was fine by 2013. But I got you out of that one. But clean. Let's go to work.
Scott
Right. Hey, with your help, I know we can get some great stocks at this point.
Jim Cramer
Yes, we can.
Scott
It does. Instead of selling in panic.
Jim Cramer
Good.
Scott
I tell you what, as a member of the club, since day one, I've been watching the stock for a long time. Is now a time or when would be a good place to begin a position in Caterpillar?
Jim Cramer
Okay, this is a great question because Kat has given up almost every. It's given up everything. And Jim Appleby is a terrific guy. Here's what you have to do. You have to wait till he reports. You can't jump the gun on this one. Let's say we crash on Monday. We're down 22%. The stock will probably be at 198. I bought it on the day of a crash in 87. It's funny you mention it, but we won't know exactly whether he's buying back stock or he's pulling his horns until he reports he's too straight a guy not to listen to. We can't pull the trigger until he says something. And thank you for your for your kindness, for your words of encouragement for me. I feel like I didn't work hard enough this week because I didn't say get out now. But that's not what I can do anymore. Anyway, just remember, even a year after Black Monday, we were up on most stocks. So do not panic. I have your back. Crame America. Someone has to man Tonight, after another day deep in the red, I'm helping Creamerica make sense this part. Hey, first luxury RH plummeted on the news the tariffs. You hear that say about the other day, I got the CEO get a better read on the company's global business in the tariffs. Then I want to look at the possible opportunities for success amid the sell off. And that's why I'm seeing I got one for you. I got an auto parts company that I think you buy right into this miserable tape. Plus put a salad chain be a sweet spot in this tape because remember, domestic no tariffs. People still gonna eat I think. Stay with Kramer.
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Every day, thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists create connectivity solutions that change the way we work, live and play. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who is focused on revolutionizing the in home WI Fi experience today and for the next generation. Kunle builds powerful Xfinity WI Fi devices that deliver a fast, reliable connection with capacity to connect hundreds of high bandwidth devices at once and next level latency for the applications of the future like augmented and virtual reality and cloud gaming. Learn more@comcastcorporation.com wi fi how will you.
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Jim Cramer
On Wednesday night, as President Trump rolled out his meat axe tariffs, the luxury home goods retailer RH was holding its conference call after reporting a little bit weaker than expected quarter stock was rolling over. But once these not so reciprocal tariffs were announced, that I think got crushed because most of their manufacturing is overseas, especially in countries that now shockingly high tariffs like think Vietnam, China, Indonesia, India, even Europe. It was so ugly that the CEO made well, it's a he spoke freely and The RH plummeted 40% yesterday plus a bit more today. Now the Stock's down roughly 63% year to date. So what happens next? RH is trading like this is an existential crisis for their business. Is that really a concern? It's a great growth company or people simply panicking. Let's talk it over with Gary Freedman. He's the chairman and CEO of rh, who should be commended for coming on and talking with us during a very tough time for his company and many others in his industry. Although I think he's really in an industry of one and he is in the arena right now. Mr. Friedman, welcome back to Man Money.
Gary Friedman
Thanks Jim.
Jim Cramer
All right, so Gary, I obviously want to start with take us through Wednesday night and what happened because it was obviously very different than a typical earnings report that you've given and it was happening in real time. I just like to know what you were thinking.
Gary Friedman
Well, you had to be able to think on the spot, right? The I think the tariffs that were announced, while somewhat anticipated, were Somewhat shocking at the levels that they were communicated. And what we tried to do, at least what I tried to do is, is dress address the situation as we saw it. And look, it just, if you just motor up and say, you know, our company's been operating with 25% tariffs out of China since the last Trump administration, so tariffs are not a new thing. And we've successfully resourced the majority of China sourcing to Vietnam. It's significantly better than pre tariff landed cost pricing. So we feel like we've been, you know, we're in pretty good shape. And additionally, we communicated that we've resourced a meaningful amount of China production to our own factory in North Carolina. So, you know, startup there, that's number one. Number two, you know, we communicated and I tried to be direct and honest with our point of view on this is that, you know, we believe that President Trump is using these significant tariffs to really, really as a negotiating tool to accelerate the negotiations with the intent to improve balanced trade conditions around the world. I think that's the intent of the administration and quite frankly, I mean, I can't really criticize them for that. I mean, we're kind of happy. It's not death by a thousand cuts that, you know, we're not, we're not starting with 10% or 20% tariffs and you know, three or four months negotiation goes by, it gets raised, it gets raised against, gets raised again. It becomes an elongated situation. In fact, if you think what's already happened, I don't know if you're aware, if you, if you saw President Trump's tweet on Truth Social today.
Jim Cramer
Sure.
Gary Friedman
But he just said he had a very productive call with to Tolam, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told the President that Vietnam wants to cut their tariffs to zero and believe they can make an agreement to do that. Now, do we believe tariffs will go to zero? They may not, but they may not be. 46%.
Jim Cramer
I've worked with you since 2018. You have diligently moved. I mean, you were 46% China and 41% China, then 38, then 35 and 34, then 29 and 22, all the way building up with Vietnam. And I was so proud of you. You listened to what, what the President wanted and you, you understood that Vietnam was a better place in terms of being a better friend. You did everything you're supposed to do. And then the tariff is like monstrously high on Vietnam.
Gary Friedman
It is, but you've got to, even, even if it's at 46. You got to keep it in perspective. Okay? We resource product to Vietnam at a better than China pre tariff price.
Jim Cramer
Okay.
Gary Friedman
So even if you put 46% on top of it, it's is it more difficult than you know, then 25 out of China? It is, but you're starting in a better price at a better place. Right. So you know, net, net to us it looks like it's about another 20% increase which is manageable, which can be absorbed through you know, some negotiations with our manufacturing partners with some, you know, higher pricing to the consumer and somewhat minimal impact to our margin structure because remember, we sell relatively high priced goods compared to anybody else in the market. So you've got, with, with furniture, you have a big landing factor on the goods because you have a big freight cost getting product to America. So at higher prices, even if they are tariff, you've got leverage on the freight cost. So freight cost as a percentage goes down, supply chain cost as a percentage goes down. And I think what the market doesn't understand with, with tariffs is what does it look like through the entire economic model of a company like ours. You know, we've been able to negotiate to navigate the last tariffs. We can navigate these tariffs even if they're 46%. Is it more difficult? It's more difficult. Is it going to change the outcome of the company? We don't believe.
Jim Cramer
But at the same time you.
Gary Friedman
We also don't believe. We don't believe they're going to be 46% sure.
Jim Cramer
I know and I sure hope they're not. But at the same time, you did talk a lot during the call about, about the repurchasing you did about what that did to the debt load and what it did to your cash position. I've seen you come through everything in 2008. I saw everybody else get crushed. You came out and you were stronger. Can it be like that again or are you playing it a little bit closer than you like given your negative free cash flow?
Gary Friedman
We're perfectly comfortable. Look, Jim, I'm the biggest shareholder and single biggest shareholder in the company and have 99% of my net worth. NRH. So I'm not going to put my own net worth at great risk. Do we have meaningful debt? I address that on the call. Yes, we do. And it's in my letter. Do we also have, you know, tremendous business momentum right now? Yes. We were just up 18% on a 13 versus 13 week basis in the fourth quarter. We're 15 to 25 points ahead of anybody else in our industry. So we have tremendous business momentum and we have significant assets. We own roughly estimated $500 million in real estate, assets that we can monetize as market conditions warrant when we want to. We also have brought in incremental inventory basically to de risk our merchandising transformation and de risk the potential for tariffs. So we've got, call it 2 to $300 million at cost of additional inventory we're carrying today. Now, that's not just think. You got to think about cost at, it's at retail, you're talking about 6 to 900 million that we can turn into cash. And we, we have less risk in a tariff transition, I believe, than any other retail company of our kind on the planet today. Some people think that extra inventory means we have more risk. It's exactly the opposite. We've already paid for that inventory. That inventory can be turned into cash, and it also de risks. It puts us in a position to not have to order immediately. While tariffs might be 46% or whatever country, you know, we're, we're coming out of, it allows us to say, hey, we've got enough inventory to kind of play this game the way we want to play this game. But I don't believe anybody else does.
Jim Cramer
I know, but you taught me also that the stock market matters, that if the stock market gets killed, there'll be some wealthy people who will pull back. Well, we got killed.
Gary Friedman
They might pull back, Jim, but they also might run to buy furniture if they believe it's going to be more expensive. Okay, So I would tell you that the, you know, the last couple of days looks like people are probably running to buy furniture, running to buy cars and so on and so forth. So it's, it's going to move around a lot. I'd say today we're very comfortable with where we are. We just, in fact, at this moment, I believe we're putting out a press release to kind of give an update on the reciprocal tariffs and our view to kind of reinforce some of the things and add more color. But, you know, our business to date this quarter, you know, in the RH brand is up 20%. You know, our whole competitive field is guiding plus 2 plus minus 2, 5. So, you know, think about a company of our size, you know, with Demand running up 20% now, what is your release?
Jim Cramer
I mean, we're not missing release. I mean, you're not burning. There's not some big story in the release is going to come out. I'm going to say, why didn't I ask Gary about that. I thought he liked me.
Gary Friedman
I, well, I'm telling you about it right now. I don't want to take, take any risk. I'm only telling you so. But, but look, we, we, because we went on moments after the Trump tariffs came on, you know, we're kind of the poster child for tariffs at this moment. And because we, we have cleaner disclosures, I believe, than anybody else in the country, we disclose exactly where we're sourcing from, where many people are much more opaque, saying, oh, we're, you know, we're sourcing the highest percentages this country or all of Asia. You know, we're very transparent. And so I think our transparency is hurting us a bit. Other people that are more opaque maybe aren't getting hurt as much. You know, people can see we have a meaningful amount of debt based on the fact we bought back $2.2 billion of our, of our stock. And, you know, that's, you know, under. Understand some of the noise. Okay. The key thing is, is, you know, don't, you know, don't let the noise, you know, dilute the truth and their true signal here. You know, this is a company that is growing massively faster than anybody else that is well positioned to move through this tariff situation, however it plays out. And some of the debt we have is because we bought 2 to $300 million more inventory in anticipation of this. So, look, I think I decided to come on today because I thought, look, somebody's got to go out there and fight for our shareholders because the press isn't always so kind if you're the first person out talking about it, you know, in a conference call like we did. So, yeah, I'm just trying to be clear to everybody.
Jim Cramer
Well, you got rates going your way.
Gary Friedman
Interest rates are coming down.
Jim Cramer
Right. You didn't even mention interest rates are coming down, which is something. Now, your people are richer than worrying about a 6% versus 7%. But that goes your way in terms of the possibility of the worst housing market in 50 years. Maybe we're going to catch a break with mortgages and we get some transactions. Maybe that happens.
Gary Friedman
That, that might happen. But honestly, we're somewhat indifferent. You know, if we're out, we're outperforming everybody in the worst housing market by a meaningful amount. So I just say, you know, just however the cards play out, you know, I'd say bet against us at your own risk.
Jim Cramer
But I would like to see. I don't want to bet against President Trump. Maybe President Trump listens to the interview and realizes maybe I should do something this weekend.
Gary Friedman
Yeah, well, look, I think, I think I, you know, like I said, I, I actually think, you know, the whole world's a little shaky about this. We haven't had a leader who's ever moved at this speed with this clarity and who has negotiated at this level. You know, I tell people, you know, this is, you know, somewhat like the negotiations during the Cuban missile crisis. You know, this is kind of President Kennedy, you know, communicating directly to Khrushchev, you know, but we've got a president that's communicating to the whole world.
Jim Cramer
Right?
Gary Friedman
Right. And he's, he's got leverage and he's using leverage. And at the end of the day, it's all going to be really good for a country that has a broken balance sheet and, you know, and needs to, needs to balance budgets, needs to fix our balance sheet. You know, I think our economy could come out booming this period. So the key is able to navigate through this.
Jim Cramer
Well, look, you're a jet to come on. You've been the best. You've been with me the whole way since the show started. And yes, I am pulling and rooting for you, but maybe I don't have to because the numbers are good. Thank you. Gary Freeman, who's the chairman and CEO of rh. It's great to see you.
Gary Friedman
Great. Thank you, Jim.
Jim Cramer
And Khrushchev did blink, didn't he? In the end? He blinked big.
Gary Friedman
He did blink.
Jim Cramer
That was the high water mark of that whole darn operation. Everybody's back yet to the break.
Bank of America Representative
Every day, thousands of Comcast engineers and technologists create connectivity solutions that change the way we work, live and play. Like Kunle, a Comcast engineer who is focused on revolutionizing the in home WI FI experience today and for the next generation. Kunle builds powerful Xfinity WI FI devices that deliver a fast, reliable connection with capacity to connect hundreds of high bandwidth devices at once and next level latency for the applications of the future like augmented and virtual reality and cloud gaming. Learn more@comcastcorporation.com wi fi how will you.
EY Representative
Shape the future of consumer products in retail with confidence? Behind every favorite product or seamless checkout, there's a series of strategic decisions to make. EY brings real time insights and deep sector expertise to create value in the moments that matter. Whether it's untangling global supply chains, managing cost pressures or leveraging emerging tech, EY's full spectrum of services helps CPG and retail companies deliver profitable growth. EY shape the future with Confidence.
Jim Cramer
We're now two days into this insane new era where we need to come to terms with sky high tariffs on essentially all imported goods starting next week and most industries as well. And I got to tell you, the market is clearly not ready for it. We all see that. So what do we do? We got to look for new ideas, some stocks that can work in a truly terrible environment because we're going to try to make money in any market. Last night I kicked off the show with a list of sectors that should work in a government mandated slowdown in health care, utilities, phone companies, all priced retailers, certain financial technology place with no credit risk. Those were down today. What a great opportunity. That's the way I look at things. I also think the used car dealers win in a world where new cars are becoming a lot more expensive. It's a good list to come back to. And it's not Mag seven. Okay, I can say those names. You want to Hear the names, Mag7? I can always rattle them off in my head. But I like to talk about new opportunities, I like to talk about money. But we can take that one step further. Some people won't even be able to afford a used car for headed for a serious recession, will they? You know what I mean? Remember, these tariffs will make all sorts of imported stuff more expensive, potentially reigniting inflation. And the Federal Reserve can't bail us out when rate cuts, they can't do. They can't do rate cuts when inflation surging. That's just not in the textbook. So if you can't afford a new car or used car, what the heck are you supposed to do? Simple. You keep driving your old car, even if you need to spend a lot more on maintenance to keep it running. And that's why tonight I want to talk about the auto parts retailers, O'Reilly Automotive and Autozone. No, it's not Microsoft. Okay? No, it's not in video. These make you money. These are the two big players in the space. Don't worry, the others make you money too. I'll tell you when they will. Now, there used to be a third major player, Advanced Auto Parts. But they've been lost the wilderness for years and show no signs of making a comeback. We'll leave that one out. Honestly, while I think the tariffs on new cars will help these companies by forcing people to stick with their older vehicles, you don't need a special occasion to recommend O'Reilly and Autozone. They have some of the best track records of outperformance that you'll ever find in Any market pick, any time, anytime, 1 year, 3 or 5 year, 10, 15, 20 over whatever period you choose. These two stocks have drastically outperformed the S&P 500 and it's not fish or fam with these two. Both O'Reilly and Autozone have some of the most beautiful long term stock charts you'll ever see. Just steady upslopes for basically the past 20 years with very few interruptions along the way. Full disclosure, the last time these auto parts change reported their numbers were technically mixed, but they mostly look pretty good to me. First, O'Reilly Automotive reported in early February and delivered a big same store sales beat with a smaller overall total revenue beat. I care about same stores more than I care about total. Their earnings came in a little light, but that was really entirely because of a self insurance reserve adjustment that was very hard to understand. O'Reilly is a little unique in that. Now like the vast majority of publicly traded companies, they don't report adjusted earnings, just the GAAP numbers, which is the only reason this looked like an earnings miss. Had it been adjusted you would have said wow. However, O'Reilly's full year forecast was clearly below expectations with in line same store sales and we couldn't expect that earnings. Now that doesn't scare why? Because these guys always issue low ball guidance which is one of the reasons why the stock barely got hit at the time. In fact, even with the market wide meltdown including the horrific last two days, this stock still up double digits for the year. How many other stocks do you have like that? As for autozone, long my favorite Care Porter. Early last month autozone also had strong same store sales with an earnings mess. The problem? Unlike O'Reilly, Autozone has some international exposure with hundreds of stores In Mexico, over 100 more in Brazil now that international business hammered them this past quarter largely because of currency fluctuations. But the core business in North America, very solid. Now AutoZone doesn't give formal guidance, but management sounds very confident about its outlook going forward with CEO Phil Danielle saying, and I'm going to quote him, we are excited about our momentum heading into the back half of the fiscal year and we are all well prepared for our spring and summer selling season. End quote. So the stock got a nice 2% pop on the news and it kept running until today when the whole market went to a tailspin. But Osborne still up 5% since the quarter and 14% for the year. Now some of our sharp viewers may say wait a second, isn't Trump placing tariffs on auto parts too? And aren't Auto parts made in China. Oh, yeah. There's a 25% tariff on imported auto parts. That's the same rate as imported cars, although the auto parts tariffs don't go into effect until May 3rd. Still, even with tariffs on auto parts, I like O'Reilly and Autozone because automobiles and auto parts are two very different markets. Buying a new car is usually a discretionary purchase. But buying a used car, buying used car, auto parts or new car, auto parts. Wait a second. That's a necessity. People will be willing to pay up because the alternative is your car won't start. Consumers will eat the 25% price increase on auto parts because they have no choice. They need them to have their car work. Let me make one more point about these two. Auto parts change, and this is the most important one. For years, O'Reilly and Autozone have been such huge winners because these two companies are gigantic reproductive purchasers of their own stock. For O'Reilly, its share count peaked in 2011. Since then, they shrunk the number of shares by nearly 60%. AutoZone has been doing this for even longer. One of the reasons why I recommended the stock since literally since the show started. They started getting aggressive with buybacks in 1998. Since then, their share count has shrunk by a remarkable 90%. That's right, 9. Oh. They had 152 million shares in 1998. They now is less than 17 million shares. In the past 20 years alone, AutoZone shares count is down almost 80%. It's like these companies are on kind of, I always say, silly, taking themselves private. Hey, by the way, both the big auto parts chains have buyback authorizations in place right now. So if they get hit because of this crazy market, they'll probably be in there buying. O'Reilly has roughly 2.3 billion left in its authorization orders. 1.3 billion. And that's why I love these companies. Even if their stocks end up getting hit, at any given time, you can count on them to be buying their own shares right there alongside you. So here's the bottom line on these two terrific stories. On a day when everyone's worried about the Mag 7 and all the rest of nonsense, we're looking for new groups that work in this horrifying new environment. It's slim pickings out there, I can tell you that. But there's still some good opportunities that you make money in any markets with. And those include O'Reilly Automotive and Autozone, which should benefit as consumers who can't afford new cars anymore are forced to extend the life of their old ones. Like I said, at the top of every show, there's always a bull market somewhere. And I keep trying to find it just for for you. Right now I'm committed to trying to find the bull market opportunities wherever they are in this red tape because we can make money in any market, you and me. One place I think you could look is the auto parts retailers, their growth stories and they buy back a lot of stock. I'll take that any day of the week. Much more money including my look at the state of the consumer with Sweet Greens Top risk. We're going to find out whether people are still going out. Of course they are. Then what should be the game plan in the Oval Office for the market's massive move lower that they've caused? I'm telling you where I stand on the tariff talk from Washington. Of course oil calls rapid fire. Tonight's edition of the Lighting. We will find ways to make money Stable premium. Look, I know the market's a nightmare, okay, so do you. But there are a couple of companies that have minimal tariff exposure, do fine recession stocks are selling off just like everything else. That seems wrong to me. Take Sweet Green, health conscious salad oriented chain with about 250 locations across the U.S. look, the stock's been hammers. Part of the market wide sell off is down another 7% today. This thing was trading at $45 inside November. It's now at $20 and change. Now this company is not sitting on its laurels. It is doing things to expand and it's not impacted by political issues or the deficit or anything in Washington other than the founders went to Georgetown. They're on the front line of the American consumer and we got to fight on the front lines. Do it. So let's take a closer look with Jonathan Neiman. He's the co founder and CEO of Sweetgreen. Find out. Mr. Newman, welcome back to bed Money.
Jonathan Neiman
Always great to be with you.
Jim Cramer
Thank you, John. Now one of the things I've been thinking about is that there are two kinds of companies in this, in this country. There's the companies that cater to domestic consumers and are doing a pretty good job. And then there's the ones that moved overseas and those are the ones we have to worry about. When I look at sweetgreen, I think it's a company that if it does a new loyalty program and if it has a new French fry, if it does something exciting like Infinite Kitchen, it still matters. And we shouldn't just be thinking, oh woe is Me China, oh, woe is me Vietnam. We're doing fine. Is that a reasonable assumption in your mind about what sweetgreen is up to?
Jonathan Neiman
I think, I think that's largely right, Jim. We're very focused on just playing our game, focusing on the fundamentals and taking care of our customers. So we started this business almost 18 years ago with the simple vision of redefining fast food and just serving healthy, delicious food to communities. And we're going to ride the waves. You know, there's, there's a lot of, you know, a lot of turmoil in the markets right now. There's a lot, there's a lot of things going on, but luckily, you know, our businesses Here in the US all 250 company owned locations and, and again, just focus on delighting our guests by serving really, really delicious food and continuing to innovate with a number of the things you talked about, like our new ripple fries that came out a couple of weeks ago, our loyalty program that launched the next just this week, and our rollout of the infinite kitchens.
Jim Cramer
So I mean, my, this totally fits my thesis, which is that people who want to give up on the stock market don't realize that it's a market of stocks and there's a company like sweetgreen that has a game plan. And that game plan is not necessarily impacted by what is happening every minute in the market, but it could be impacted by huge inflation in terms of your raw costs. It doesn't seem like inflation is eating that much into what you do.
Jonathan Neiman
Listen, it's a very fluid situation. Luckily we have a mostly domestic supply chain, but of course, you know, these, these sorts of moves can impact prices, they can impact consumers. So we're watching things very, very carefully. We're trying to be super disciplined. But again, it just, it just forces us to sharpen our focus. You know, when things get, when things get, you know, when the waters get a little rough, all that we can do is just be more disciplined and execute better. And that's all we can do right now. So focus on providing the best value for our customers on the food we serve. Continue to innovate. You know, just put out delicious food that is healthy, open great, great new restaurants and manage our costs as best we can. And so, you know, I think we're better situated than most. But, but it's a, you know, as we're all seeing, it's a very, very fluid situation.
Jim Cramer
At the same time, it's not like you're just sitting back and saying, let's hope things go okay, you put in a loyalty program. I've always felt that companies that don't have loyalty programs that are in your, in your industry just haven't thought through the new kind of value conscious consumer. And it's everyday value. It isn't like they wake up today and say oh man, the market's really bad. I'm suddenly caring about value. They're going to look at your place and say look, he's got a certain deal. Sweet Green's got a deal. I don't know is it as good as another deal? And they think like that that's the new consumer. How did you configure your loyalty program?
Jonathan Neiman
So our loyalty program was, was thought about of how do we create a program that can provide very simple construct rewards for everyone. $1 gets you 10 points and they have different point tiers to earn different things but also layer on some special things around community and recognizing our best customers. So there's a lot of surprise and delight built in including a special tier we call the goat tier, the greenest of all time. So our best customers will be put into this goat tier. And then there's the personalized one to one marketing piece. So what it allows us to do is really kind of leverage our CRM and offer rewards to customers on an individual basis, get to know them, know what their eating behaviors are, what their likes and dislikes are and market to them, you know, directly in a one to one way. And we think, you know, given the digital penetration of the brand we're looking at over 50% of our businesses is digitally connected. It gives us a huge opportunity to leverage that data to better market to our consumers. Well, beauty of the sweetgreen is the is how habitual it is. So we just want to play on that habituation because you feel good when you eat it and you just want to eat more.
Jim Cramer
Well, you know what, I'm glad you came on because I wanted to hear something thing other than the fact that the president did this or that and companies had to do this or that. Because I really think it's vital for people to realize some companies have a little more control over their destiny than others. And that I think is what you have. Jonathan Neiman is the co founder and CEO of sweetgreen. Delight to speak to you. It's delight to have someone who's got something good to say on a day like today. Thank you for coming on you.
Jonathan Neiman
I got to say you got it. People got to eat, right?
Jim Cramer
Oh they always do. Isn't that terrific? Everybody's back after the break. Thank you.
Mad Money Announcer
Coming up, Kramer takes your calls and the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round.
Jim Cramer
Next, it is time. It's time for the light rounded sound. And then the lighting round is over. Are you ready? Skeet that. Let's start with Bruno in Massachusetts. Bruno. Jim, I'd like your take on Archer Aviation, which recently a little too speculative. A little too speculative. We're not going to recommend Stockstone. We're losing money in this kind of environment. Let's go to Jerry in New Jersey. Jerry.
Scott
Hey, Jim, how you doing?
Jim Cramer
I'm doing good. How are you?
Scott
I go out and I buy an.
Jim Cramer
American ship company, bff. What's going on? Well, the problem is is they, they make small. They do not make the latest and greatest. And that's the problem. Taiwan semi does. And no one wants to touch that stock either. So don't feel bad. Let's go to Roger in Arkansas. Roger, thank you for everything you do for us.
Scott
Gmi.
Jim Cramer
Thank you, Roger.
Scott
So buy, sell or hold. And if. What price should I buy Ori at?
Jim Cramer
Right here. ORI is a winner. It's a terrific situation. Let me throw in Chubb like that too. How about Kevin in New York? Kevin.
Scott
Hey, Kramer. I am here with my 13 year old son Mason.
Jim Cramer
Excellent.
Scott
Who has his own portfolio and he also has a Roth that he contributes to.
Jim Cramer
Okay. Hi, Jim. Nathan. How you been, buddy?
Scott
So, Jim, a couple of months back you said that you might like this stock if it came down enough to have a 7% yield. Well, right now it's at almost 9%. So what do you think of Dow chemical?
Jim Cramer
Yes, or 9%. See, I looked at that today. There were a bunch of guys who cut the price targets. I said to myself, wow, 9%. That is no longer a go. When something's that outsize a yield, I have to take a pass because it means that there's something awry. And thank you Nathan too for listening up. Let's go to Henry in Colorado. Henry. Henry.
Scott
Hey, Jim, I'd like to get your thoughts on the impact that you think that these impending tariffs will have on Danaher. Dhr.
Jim Cramer
Danaher, A stock that I wish I did not own for my travel trust. I keep hoping for the best. Which would mean that Mr. Blair would be able to spend more time with his family because he is the CEO and right now I think that he's not doing an appropriate job. I am concerned that next I'll wake up on Monday and find that the Chinese kicking them out so let's just say that there's a way to be able to manage your business. I saw this with Estee Lauder. Same thing. Great company didn't do it right. Time to step up. Danaher board. Let's see. Let's see a pulse. Okay. I'd like to speak to Logan in Wisconsin. Logan.
Scott
Booyah, Jim, booyah. Looking for your thoughts on Robinhood, Doc. Given the.
Jim Cramer
I like Robin Hood very much. But the problem is that when I had this big spike, when things look like we're going to have a president, there was more, more, a little more pro markets. I would own the stock. I would not buy it right here. I think the Stock has another 15 to 20% downside before we really find exactly where it can be bottoming. Raymond in Massachusetts. Raymond.
Scott
Yes. Good afternoon, Mr. Kramer, and thank you for taking my call.
Jim Cramer
Thank you for calling.
Scott
Okay. You said a while ago to keep an eye on Lyondale Bissell. Lyd and I have been and I'm wondering if one, if you see the company is stable and its dividend is stable and would you recommend accumulating some shares.
Jim Cramer
Here's the problem. This and I could do it too for this and Dow. They need China get stronger. They need worldwide growth. And we've got China getting weaker. Got worldwide. We disinfect and that unfortunately makes it so we can't take, we can't take some down. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the Lightning Round.
Mad Money Announcer
The Lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab.
Jim Cramer
There's a path, a way out of this box. As I said at the top of the show, President is fixated in the long term when he talks about trillions of dollars that the tariffs will bring in. He says the tariffs will allow us to fund both tax cuts and a lower budget deficit, putting us out. Whether that can be true or not, I don't think we have the full luxury right now of focusing on the potential long term benefits because the short term is a horror. These tariffs are incoherent and enormous and not at all reciprocal, which is why they triggered a needless firestorm. It's almost like President Trump wanted to be as dramatic as possible. He's producing a TV show rather than run the country ready supposed to be through the roof, but in the stock market, we don't want Trump, we don't want a TV show. We want a president who can get things done. Besides roiling rolling over law firms, which he certainly could do and ideally not throw the economy in recession to save it the Hammond way. The President ordered these tariffs, which by the way are larger than the smooth hauley tariffs that arguably did help cause the Great Depression was bonkers. Here's what I care about. I don't want there to be a crash in the stock market. Not on Monday, not Tuesday night, ever. I don't think the President wants one either, but he doesn't seem to be worried about it. He should be worried because we're a nation of people who are trying to save for retirement and the stock market is the best way. Americans should not have their savings sacrifice sacrificed on the order of long term benefits. Especially when he could have lowered the boom on our trading partners without causing all this disruption. And remember, I am a hardliner on trade. Harder than pretty much everyone. I don't like globalists. If the White House had rolled out genuinely reciprocal tariffs as opposed to whatever the heck he did, then our government could have started the process of rejiggering the world order. The President called it an operation. Patient will be well and we'll have trillions. I disagree. I think the patient is now touch and go and is in real trouble because of the ill considered surgery. Sure, the Fed is the ability to lower rates. That's great. Yes, Treasuries are going in the right direction. We could see great, maybe housing recover great. Unemployment oil's going down too. But with the exception of the employment number, these are all signs of an impending recession. Consider everything that's going wrong here. First, the stock market isn't working right at all. Look at the stock of private equity companies. They're being killed because they own a lot of highly levered businesses that they were planning to bring public under President Trump. People worried that those IPOs won't happen anymore. Markets so ugly. If we want to get out of this mess, we need some signs that the President understands the need for a functioning market. We just saw today klarna Chime and StubHub pause their IPOs very bad. Second, Trump needs to recognize that we may have strong employment now, but that won't be the case in the future, which is what matters. He has to focus on what can happen in the shorter term too, not just the longer term. It's part of the job. We don't elect our leaders for just long term in this country. If you can't deliver in the short term to your party's toes. Third, he needs to be more constructive toward the countries that genuinely want to do deals like Israel and Vietnam. Why not? In Trump's first term, the administration was encouraging manufacturers to move from China to Vietnam. As you heard with RH tonight, those companies need our help now. It's so ironic. The President's always talking about the working people who lost their jobs in the order of free trade. And that is true, and that's what makes me not a globalist. But how about the workers in current jobs who'll be laid off because of the crushing tariffs? Why is there no recognition of them? I'm not a free trader, but even unfair trade is better than no trade. The President needs to make a commitment this weekend to help companies that would want to avoid the tariffs. He needs to call world leaders and say that they can roll back some of the tariffs that he's putting on them, but they got to play ball. Mr. President, don't cause a crash. It will be your legacy and it can easily be avoided. Jake, I got an idea. Just bring back the order of the deal. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and I promise I would find it just for you right here on that money. I'm Jim Cramer and I will see you on Monday.
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Mad Money with Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (April 4, 2025)
Released on April 4, 2025
In the April 4, 2025 episode of "Mad Money", host Jim Cramer delves deep into the tumultuous state of the stock market, emphasizing the significant impact of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies. As always, Cramer's mission is clear: to help investors navigate the complex landscape of Wall Street to make profitable decisions.
Cramer opens the episode by addressing the severe downturn in the stock market, highlighting substantial losses across major indices:
He compares the current situation to past market crashes, notably the 1987 Black Monday, expressing concerns that the aggressive tariff strategies might be driving the market towards a similarly catastrophic decline.
Notable Quote:
“The implosion of our markets continues. And it's so obvious that this is a manmade obliteration.” – Jim Cramer ([01:04])
Cramer criticizes President Trump’s tariff policies, suggesting they are unreciprocated and could precipitate a market crash comparable to the 1987 event. He outlines three potential scenarios:
He emphasizes the potential for European retaliation against U.S. tech companies, exacerbating the market turmoil.
Notable Quote:
“If Europe moves against our fabulous tech companies next week then I will be furious. Because it should not happen.” – Jim Cramer ([01:04])
Cramer shares his strategy for navigating the volatile market, encouraging investors to stay calm and avoid panic selling. Drawing from his 1987 experience, he explains his approach of maintaining cash positions to weather market storms.
Notable Quote:
“Even in 87 it was fine by. By 88, and in 2007 it was fine by 2013. But I got you out of that one.” – Jim Cramer ([10:11])
Cramer shifts focus to sectors likely to perform well despite high tariffs, recommending O'Reilly Automotive and AutoZone. These auto parts retailers are deemed resilient because auto parts remain a necessity, independent of economic conditions.
He highlights their robust stock buyback programs, which enhance shareholder value and provide support during market downturns.
Notable Quote:
“These two stocks have drastically outperformed the S&P 500 and it's not fish or fam with these two.” – Jim Cramer ([15:02])
Cramer interviews Gary Friedman, Chairman and CEO of RH, discussing the company's significant stock decline following the announcement of Trump's tariffs.
Notable Quotes:
“We were up 18% on a 13 versus 13 week basis in the fourth quarter.” – Gary Friedman ([16:19])
“But I think this might happen. But honestly, we're somewhat indifferent. You know, if we're out, we're outperforming everybody in the worst housing market by a meaningful amount.” – Jim Cramer ([27:27])
Friedman emphasizes RH’s preparedness to absorb higher tariffs through strategic supply chain adjustments and maintaining inventory levels, reinforcing the company’s resilience in a challenging market.
Cramer converses with Jonathan Neiman, co-founder and CEO of Sweetgreen, focusing on how the company remains resilient amidst market challenges.
Notable Quotes:
“We're very focused on just playing our game, focusing on the fundamentals and taking care of our customers.” – Jonathan Neiman ([38:08])
“Customers will eat because they need it, and your loyalty program is a strategic move to capture this demand.” – Jim Cramer ([42:55])
Neiman articulates Sweetgreen’s strategic initiatives to maintain growth, including expanding their digital presence and leveraging customer data for personalized marketing.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer engages with listeners, providing quick stock recommendations based on individual inquiries.
Nathan's Call ([44:26]):
Henry's Call ([45:10]):
Raymond's Call ([46:16]):
Cramer concludes the Lightning Round with a critical stance on President Trump's tariff policies, urging for more balanced and reciprocal tariffs to prevent further economic destabilization.
Notable Quotes:
“We got to look for new ideas, some stocks that can work in a truly terrible environment because we're going to try to make money in any market.” – Jim Cramer ([30:20])
“If you can't afford a new car or used car, what the heck are you supposed to do? Simple. You keep driving your old car, even if you need to spend a lot more on maintenance to keep it running.” – Jim Cramer ([30:20])
In his concluding remarks, Cramer vehemently criticizes the President's tariff strategy as incoherent and excessively burdensome. He argues that these tariffs are undermining the stock market and the broader economy, urging the administration to adopt more reciprocal and balanced trade policies to stabilize the economic environment.
Notable Quote:
“I don't want to have a crash in the stock market. Not on Monday, not Tuesday night, ever.” – Jim Cramer ([47:26])
He emphasizes the immediate negative impacts on investors and workers, advocating for measures to mitigate the economic fallout and prevent a deeper recession.
This episode of "Mad Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of current market challenges, strategic stock recommendations, and insightful discussions with industry leaders, all aimed at helping investors navigate a volatile economic landscape.