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Jim Cramer (0:40)
Learn more@chase.com Sapphire Reserve cards issued by JP Morgan Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval My mission is simple. To make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad Now. Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. Some people want to make friends. I just want to make you money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to educate, to teach. So call me at 1-800-743-simi sweet or leave me at Jim Cramer. Today we got obliterated early on, but as the afternoon proceeded, the averages rallied hard as oil fell because the Iranians seem to be inclined to back a two week truce brokered by Pakistan, which, which is why the Dow only finished down just 85 points. SB inched up 0.8% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.1%. It was an astounding comeback, but not broad. That was easy, exciting, but lasting. That I'm not sure about. It's, well, let's just say is a real deal. Would have sent us much higher. But all I can tell you is some stocks are no longer in trouble. But. But many are. How do I know this? Because I speak the language of stocks. And I got to tell you, I don't like what I've been hearing. The President of the United States should like either. Of course, you could say that he has his hands full trying to figure out if he should destroy civilization. His words, not mine. I hope the situation cools down personally, because if the president does go all medieval on Iran, well, that would do incredible damage to the world, our economy. That's what the stock market's been saying, right? We, the media, focus on all sorts of data, don't we? For example, this morning, the Atlanta Fed repository of all things. GDP cut their growth forecast for the economy from 1.6% to 1.3%. That's a pretty big slice. Frankly to me though, that is an abstraction. In more concrete terms, we can see the West Texas Intermediate crude $112 a barrel, up 93% for the year. That's not good. Of course it's worth noting that the s and P500 is only down about 3% for the year. We know from Michael Semblance, ex workers chief strategist over at JP Morgan that historically when oil doubles, the S and P has always gone down more than 20%. By that kind of oil blips up here, we still have a lot more downside. I don't know whether it'll happen to some degree. This gigantic move is predicated on one man's desire or whim or intense thought process. And it can be undone. But we have no idea what he'll do next or what he'll undo. I'm hoping the Pakistanis can pull off this two week truce. Still, whether it's the Fed's GOP GDP forecast or the price of oil, that's all too big picture for me. That's why I prefer to make my analysis from the ground up, listening to what the stocks are saying. I want to start with the real screamers and that's retail. Walmart's the biggest. Here's a stock that truly defines the term juggernaut. It's a value oriented retailer that out nowhere has begun to attract wealthier customers who make over $100,000 a year. But no matter, it's where the less well off buy a lot of their food and clothing. Walmart's been a total runaway train. But that has left many other retailers behind. Today though, it's saying something different. It went down 3.4%. It's a big decline. This boost says that Walmart's gotten too expensive for many people to shop at. Now that's not encouraging. Normally when I hear Wal Mart stock whisper sweet negatives, I have to figure out whether the problem revolves around the stock of Wal Mart itself. Now it's going up huge, trading 42 times its fiscal 2027 earnings estimates, close to the highest it's ever been. That's rich. The multiples rich and maybe the stores too rich. I don't know. Why don't we do this? Let's step down a level. How are the dollar stores doing? Dollar General and Dollar Tree. When the economy slows down to the point where people need to trade down to save money they go to those two. But the stocks show that the consumer may be hurting even more than you think. Dollar General stock today down 2.6%. Dollar tree plunging 4.2%. At least one of these should have tilted more positive. That's just plain trouble and it bodes badly for tens of millions of people in this country. The house of pain. Before you are up to consumer you have to listen to one other place. The off price stores for apparel. It's big in the CPI coming up namely tjx Ross and Burlington. The these have been phenomenal performers leaving their full priced competitors in the dust. Not today though. TJX the best of them fell 2.6%. Ross somewhat of a rival said 2.2%. Burlington meant for the most challenged dropped 3%. I would say they paint a pretty nasty picture of the consumer too. Now we know ever since COVID many have adopted this mantra of long on money, short on time. That means they've been taking vacations in record numbers. And is that still the case? Well, the best way to look at that is to look at the cruise lines for answers because they represent bargains and they demonstrate incredible success coming out of the pandemic. Not one is holding up your Royal Caribbean shed 2.9%. Norwegian just sinks and sinks this time losing 3.3%. Carnival lost 3%. Even Viking holdings was pride itself. One of more upscale clientele dropped 2.7%. There's one other place we got to listen to and that's homes and home repairs. There's that means Home Depot and Lowe's. Sure enough, their stocks tell a clear disappointing story with lows falling 1.5% and Home Depot Chapel Trust in hitting the new low list and doing so in spectacular fashion dropping 2.4%. What an awful stock that is. That and Nike are my two worst and I have to wear them every time like steamer trunk on my back. Anyway, there are so many brands affiliated with these two that the screaming from the corner of the market is enough to make your ears bleed. It makes me want to listen to the homebuilding stocks. Except because of the downgrade of the whole group. The shriek seem artificial. Toll down 3.4% in the high end. Dr. Horton on the lower end losing 3.3%. Call me worry. Finally, how about credit? I like to look at Capital One, one of my favorites because there's lots of people paying very high rates. It only declined 1.66% today but it's now almost 80% from its 80 points from its high 80 points. So the Picture is one of weakness, real weakness, getting worse, not better, obscured by the rally. Now, market historians can say that this gaggle of negative voices is setting us up. Well, for incoming Fed chief Kevin Marsh, stock prices are predictors. They say that things could really break down. And if the market breaks down, it's easier for the Fed to cut interest rates. Except there are other voices to be heard from. The ones that tell you not only are things slowing down, but they're also inflationary. When you know that inflation could rage, the group that acts the worst, the drug stocks. Sure enough, Merck, which has been a real stall here, dropped 1.3% today. Pfizer, which has begun to show ahead of scene. Not today, down 2.6%. ABV is down the VAR, just going the wrong way. How about the foods? Another indicator of inflation. ConAgra, Campbell's, General Mills, Kraft, Heinz, all considerably lower. Oh, and let's not forget what Darden, parent of Olive Garden, is screaming at the top of her lungs because it's down a miserable three today. So I'm hearing a heck of a lot of bad news obscured by the average weak consumer coupled with inflation. Well, that would mean Jimmy Carter style stagflation if the President isn't careful. I don't like to mention. I'm sure he'd be very, very mad if he knew that. At the same time I mentioned his name, I mentioned Jimmy Carter. So I only use the term President. But it's not fake news. Here's the bottom line. Much like hip stocks don't lie. Of course, the stagflation scenario that looks like it might be coming, it can easily be reversed at the same time. You can see how things might spin out of control if the voices keep screaming for help. In my head, I wish these stocks would just shut the heck up. But that's not how the conversation works. Hey, why don't we go to Lou in Arizona? Lou.
