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Keith Lansford
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
Jim Cramer
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Christine Brun
Local communities and expanding access to care.
Jim Cramer
Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramerica. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just entertain, but to explain how it works. So call me at 1-800-743-CNC Cream. Meet Jim Cramer. The Market it continues to put its best face on possible the gift of trade, peace with China. And Today, Dow gaining 332 points. S&P rising point seven percent. Nasdaq advancing 0.52% thanks to the absence of new tariffs, some gigantic tech quarters in the Mideast, and some really very positive reactions to surprisingly good quarters. So we got to ask ourselves, can the bullish procession continue? And maybe will it matter that after the close this very evening, Moody's, the important rating agency, downgraded the U.S. credit rating because of our government's debt increase. Now the latter is a real wild card because we, we all know already, you and I, that we have way too much debt in the country. I'm not sure we even matter, even as it should. But when it comes to business fundamentals, there's it's going to dazzle something that's going to happen Sunday night. We've got to talk about that. Even though I have to, you know, I don't want to glaze over this Moody's downgrade. You know how we are. We tend to focus on what's going to happen next. And what's going to happen next is that Jensen Huang is going to give the Computex keynote speech and it's going to come Sunday night. Now I'm hearing there's going to be some dazzling new products and ideas. This speech will be Online streamed at 11:00pm Eastern. Now, I can't figure out whether to watch it live or the moment I get up, but I won't dare to come to work without knowing what Jensen is saying. Now we know Nvidia stock rallied 16% this week and is now safely back above the $3 trillion in market cap number. That's the beneficiary of a huge bevy of orders from the Gulf monarchies, by the way, they have a lot more core weave than we thought and that stock took off today. Now I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia has more room to run, particularly because there are a lot of people who felt that it should never been at $3 trillion in the first place, and they've been proven wrong. Next up, analyst PDs are often very dry affairs that are informational but not actionable. That is not the case though. In J.P. morgan, the largest bank speaks on Monday, their analyst meeting moves. Well, I'll tell you it moves stocks, especially when CEO Jamie Dimon gives his somewhat jaundiced view of the world because, well, he's somewhat jaundice. He may be a tad Saturn on too. While I'm at it, Monday also is the first day when Capital One, the credit card bank, trades as one with Discover Financial as the deal is now closed. Now I've been telling people in members of the of my CNBC investing club, the Capital One is my favorite stock right now in the charitable trust, even as it just gained almost 20 points this month alone. I think the move is far from over. I expect number bumps and analysts upgrades. You've got to learn the Capital One story now. Not that long ago we dropped in on a monster Home Depot store management meeting in Vegas where we heard about some great ideas for spring gardening season which by way the kicks into overdrive this weekend. Unfortunately, these big weeks for lawn and garden have been overshadowed by stubbornly high interest rates and no rate cuts from the Fed, not to mention tariff worries. Now I've watched this stock since it came public and there are plenty of times that Home Depot doesn't actually march to the tune of interest rates, but instead is levered to repair and renovation as so many people are stuck in their homes unwilling to trade up because that would force them to give up that low mortgage rate that they may have gotten during the COVID period. Now we own the despot for the Chapel Trust. And while I'm not expecting a blowout by any means, I I have to say I like it long term and it's down 2% for the year, well off its highs. By the way, Lowe's is attractive too, they report Wednesday morning. Both are excellent operators, although Home Home Depot is more about professionals and Lowe's has more of a do it yourself Customer base. Home Depot stock is a great one to own because like Wal Mart, these guys have the scale to cope with the, with the tariffs that are going to be put on so many foreign made goods that they sell at Home Depot. The little guys we know, they don't have that kind of flexibility. And hey, one thing is for certain, nobody cares for the homebuilders. This group's been down so long, it's almost looks up to me. Consider the case of Toll Brothers, the highest end homebuilder. Toll reports on Tuesday evening. I think the numbers are going to be real darn good. I think it's the stock should be able to bounce. The chart looks terrific. But the company will most likely have to be restrained with this guidance because there's still pervasive sense of negativity out there. At 7 times earnings though, I think you want to own this one. Even if their forecast isn't a thing of beauty. And yes, I know when seven times earnings, that means it probably will not have higher forecasts. But maybe it's just time to pull the trigger on some. Now Chabot Trust also owns Palo Alto Networks, which reports Tuesday night. This stock is an odd habit of going down just no matter how good the quarter is. And they're almost all good. So you might want to wait until after the report if you want to buy a cybersecurity company that is very high quality. Now speaking of going down after a good quarter, the worst offender of all might be TJ X, which oddly may be the best of the retailers right here. Tjx forever holding up the chopped trust, buys excess goods from merchants who need cash and then marks them up and sells them to you at what's still a huge discount. And I've gone twice this week to my TJ max. I just looking for who knows what. I like to go there. I'm looking for bargains like you. How about a fire? How about VF Corp? Now listen to me. The apparel company fumbled last time, I get that. But CEO Bracken, Darryl, you may remember from Logitech, he's a great operator. I bet he's too competitive to let a second debacle happen. Might be worth taking a position and build it in any weakness. Finally, there's the most problematic of retailers of all right now and that is Target. Now this one's experienced a sharp downturn. Totally out of step with the company and with the CEO of Brian Cornell. Target's been luckless, a victim of protests that hurt the business. Can you buy it now knowing that the Stock sports a 4.5% yield. My fear is the target reports an OK quarter, but then says it can't offer a forecast, at which point you're sitting on a dead waiter. Now, let's say. Let's say you put a gun to my head and ask me whether you should buy it or sell it. I'd say, what are you doing with a gun in my head? It's too hard. Also Wednesday, we are from Medtronic and I like this medical device powerhouse, but the stock's been inconsistent. Even the numbers tend to be pretty darn strong. That means it's hard to gain another one. I got to say, wait and see. Now, that's not how I feel about Snowflake, though. The data storage and analytics company with a business that is on fire. Last quarter was terrific. I think this one will be too. Oh, and don't forget Jeff Marks and I. Well, we've got our investing meeting. We do our investment club meeting once a month and I will. We have a new idea. I hope you tune in. We're tackling a lot of stuff. You should join before the monthly meeting. Now, if you're looking for an apparel company that keeps delivering, delivering, I suggest you look no further. Ralph Lauren, which is captained by Patrice Levay, a man with both excellent taste and the intelligence to tell the story to every age group. Ralph Lauren reports Thursday morning I buy this one ahead of the quarter too. Now, we've got a bunch of controversial ones coming on Thursday. Intuit is a stock that's been all over the map, but the company's a godsend for small business owners. The stock's expensive here. I think it's worth it. You want a company, it's in a suddenly red hot segment of the shoe business. Look at Deckers. Think about this. Think about what's happened to business. First we get Skechers gets a bid to go private. Huge win. Then we got this spectacular quarter from On Holdings. On top of that, Dick's Sporting Goods pays almost twice the price to acquire Footlock. A remarkable bid. So last time, Deckers, which owns Hoka and Uggs, reported its first disappointing quarter in ages and the stock was just clubbed. HOKA was incredibly strong, though. Uggs didn't have enough inventory, so there was no blowout and the stock got crushed. The these guys are excellent operators though, so I don't think that will happen again. I'm inclined to be in favor of Deckers ahead of the quarter here. Now, we've been on a real rebound since the post Liberation Day meltdown back in the last first week of April with Tech leading the way after really taking it on the chin. I don't know if that will continue as there's a dearth of news coming from Tech except for that Jensen keynote. A lot more retail next week. But here's the bottom line. Unless we get news of new hostilities in the trade war with China, I think this market's propensity will still be to go higher even though we are overbought. And even with this late night credit rating downgrade of the US Debt, which is very quizzical to me, I think we're containing the downside of the economy and that means no recession, which tells me the negativity may be out of sync with reality. That's often the best kind of market and I'm going to talk more about that later in the show. Let's go to Rod in Florida. Rod.
Rod
Hey Jim, how you doing?
Jim Cramer
I am doing well, Rod. How are you? Great.
Rod
First time, long time.
Jim Cramer
Excellent.
Rod
For the stock I'm calling about, I've owned for 15 years. I took your sage advice like I always do and sold half of it when it doubled. I've got a 600% gain in it, but it's down 50% in the last six weeks and crushing my portfolio. What the heck do I do about my UnitedHealth?
Jim Cramer
Okay, we got the first good news in UnitedHealth since all these problems have come about that there was a lot of insider buying today. So you have to ask yourself why would they buy if they felt that they were going to have a big problem with the Justice Department. That made me feel like that maybe the heat is going to be off for a little bit. But I am not happy with UnitedHealth. And I would sell, I would use strength to sell even more. Why? Because we got to find out about what justice is going to do. And even the insider buyers may not know what they're going to do. Justice is what I call a wild card. Will in North Carolina. Will.
Rod
Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call.
Jim Cramer
Of course.
Rod
As someone who just graduated college and who's looking to add something to my portfolio that's a little bit off the tech side, I was curious if you would reaffirm your buy rating of Visa from a few months ago.
Jim Cramer
Absolutely. I think Visa is sensational. By the way, just so we know, I don't want to slight Michael me back. Visa and MasterCard are both great. MasterCard's actually growing a little bit faster. But they are both fabulous companies. We own one for the Chapel Trust. It made us so much money we got greedy, we fell, and then all it did was go up further. They're both terrific stocks. Now look, unless we get some negative news on the tariff front, I think the market could continue to march higher next week. Well, maybe tonight Can Dutch Bros. Long one of my favorites, stay caffeinated at this post earnings rally? I'm pouring through the numbers with the coffee chain CEO. Then I'm seeing if long term growth is still on the menu for a stock that you and I both know I like a lot. Kava, despite the stock sliding yesterday's report, don't miss my take on the company's path ahead. And later, I'm digging into how the current economic landscape is shaping waste management company Republic Services. Good read on the economy there too. So stay with Kramer.
CNBC Producer
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Keith Lansford
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
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Jim Cramer
Even in a volatile year like this one, we got some big winners. Take Dutch Bros. The Oregon based coffee chain that you know I like. It's up more than 40% year to date. Now I've been telling you to buy the stock at Dutch Bros for ages. And sure enough, when the company reported last week, it delivered yet another great quarter, sending the stock up 8% the next day. And it just keeps running. Even here though it's still down 15% from its highs back in February. So can we expect this momentum to continue? Let's check in with Christine Brun. She's the president CEO of Dutch Bros. To find out more. Ms. Bruno, welcome back to Bad Money.
Christine Brun
Jim, thanks so much for having me and congrats on your 20th anniversary.
Jim Cramer
Well, I know I've got to tell you first I just want to start that with Drink One for Dane because I think sometimes we have to start with the good things that we get to them. Just tell us about that because it means a lot to you and it means a lot to everybody.
Christine Brun
Well, thank you so much. We're celebrating an important anniversary ourselves and we have three national give backs that we do at Dutch Bros every single year. But the most important one and the one that really represents our culture is Drink one for Dane. It's in honor of our founder, our co founder, Dane Boorsma. And he really set the culture for the company. We have had this and we raise money for the MDA every year to fight ALS in honor of him and what he, what he created in Dutch.
Jim Cramer
Bros. Well, I'm glad you brought that up. We rang the opening bell today for ALS awareness and I just think it's, it's something that we're just not making progress in. So I thought it was important to point that out. Now you had another incredibly impressive quarter. You're still doing expanding infill in some big states. I noticed, for instance, Florida and Texas, you have more stores in Texas than you already have in California. Florida, you don't have enough. What's the process for the rest of the year about being able to expand in these places?
Christine Brun
Yeah, so we are continuing really to grow across the country. So we'll add more in Texas, we'll add a lot more in Florida, we'll continue to add in California and in many of our states. And we are opening in some new states as well and so might see us someday soon in Indiana or Georgia or some other states as well.
Jim Cramer
So how does paid advertising work when you have so few say in Florida, but you know, you want to start drawing people out because I had always known Dutch Bros. Is word of mouth. But I know that when you do paid advertising, you do extraordinarily well.
Christine Brun
Yes, what we're really doing is targeted paid advertising. So you're not going to see us on a big national stage. But we are looking for folks who are going to want to become our customers and really just to introduce ourselves and introduce the brand and then our goal is to introduce ourselves and then to hopefully get them into the Dutch Rewards program.
Jim Cramer
Now the Dutch program has been growing incredibly well. But what I find most impressive is you don't have a lot of people who go to Dutch Bros who are not members. I mean, it seems like the highest ratio of customers who have members to non members that I've ever seen. Why is that? How is that possible?
Christine Brun
Yes, 72% of our transactions are with our Dutch Rewards members. And I think as you share, that's truly impressive given how quickly we're growing. And so we do have a focus on getting our customers into that program. It provides them that extraordinary, extraordinary value that they keep coming back to us. It allows us to, to tell them of things going on. Like drink one for Dane or a day that you can, can come in and get a sticker or a special rubber duck.
Jim Cramer
And what do you think you're getting your customers from? You've got these. The innovative drug drinks this quarter didn't seem to me to be like you'd be taking share from Starbucks or from Tim Hortons. These are almost like they're just brand new customers that have nothing to do with traditional coffee drinking.
Christine Brun
Well, I think every single year you have a lot of new customers coming into the beverage market. I also think in general we're expanding how many types of beverages we drink. We are unique in that we have that very strong afternoon business. So really creating that new occasion in the afternoon. And so I think a lot of what we're doing is actually growing the market now.
Jim Cramer
The kinds that I saw this, the new ones that the offer, the limited time offering, it didn't seem like there is loaded with caffeine as I like. I mean you are you developing the. I sense in the afternoon. There's some people who don't want to get, you know, they don't, they want to get really tanked up. They just want to have something that's sweet and fun and nice break.
Christine Brun
Well, I think it's what we do have is we have a variety across our beverages. So you can get the 911 which helps get you amped up. I'm actually drinking a Tiger's Blood soda right now that doesn't have any caffeine and I happen to have it in the afternoon sugar free.
Jim Cramer
Wow. I don't know if I'd like that, but teach his own now.
Christine Brun
Straw. It's strawberry coconut. It's really tasty.
Jim Cramer
Okay, I like that. May be something I want to go with. Now I got to ask about tariffs because people are worried about costs and yet I don't see really any. Anything that would. Would worry me. I know that's El Salvador. I know you've got some other places that you get your coffee from. Brazil, Colombia. What. What are we thinking here about. About having to raise price because of tariffs?
Christine Brun
Yes, we're really focused on our value proposition before the tariffs. We've actually seen a very significant cost overall increase in the coffee market and in those sea prices. So we've been planning for that for quite some time. And our plan is not to pass that on to our customers and to keep our great value proposition that we have for them.
Jim Cramer
Well, you definitely do. Now, how much is a sweet cereal sip or brownie batter mocha and birthday cake latte? Because those sound like the kind of afternoon treat that I can get into.
Christine Brun
Well, those are all wonderful drinks. Those are some of our LTOs from. From Q1 and just did fantastically. I really love the brownie batter mocha. Our chocolate milk was part of our founding and just one of those amazing drinks that anything that has our chocolate milk on it is fantastic.
Jim Cramer
All right. So Christine, right now, are you trying to cook some things for the third and fourth quarters? I mean, are you working right now for those?
Christine Brun
We are working on those. We're even starting to work into 26. You know, as we think about it, we will have pops of innovation. We did on April Fool's Day. We did a little Pickleback Rebel and it just popped in for three days. But that was a lot of fun. So we'll do things like that. But we will also do longer term innovation. And so really thinking through where might customers be going, what are they looking for, what do they want from a refreshment perspective, from a caffeine perspective, and how can we fulfill that?
Jim Cramer
One last question. There are always throughput issues and logistics issues when you do mobile ordering and order ahead, are you satisfied with the time to market for mobile ordering and does it ever get in the way of the people just drop by?
Christine Brun
So for us, mobile order, I think we had the benefit of learning from the rest of the market. And we also know so well that connection between our Brewista and our customer is what makes us special. So as we design the program, which we just launched nationwide in Q4 of last year, so this is our second quarter across the country with mobile order we're at 11% of transactions and I think our Broistas are doing just a fabulous job of keeping that connection and also allowing customers to have that drive drink ready for them when they arrive.
Jim Cramer
At Dutch Bros. Well, it must be the case because the same store sales are really terrific and of course Best Buy your company owned stores which we know are really crushing it. And I want more company owned stores. I want some stores in New York or at least Pennsylvania can't give us New York anyway. Christine Brown, Presidency of Dutch Bros. Thank you again for another great quarter.
Christine Brun
Thank you so much Jim.
Jim Cramer
Absolutely Mad money's back after the break.
CNBC Producer
Coming up from Pitas to profits, Kramer's eyeing Cava's latest quarter and seeing if this fast casual name could be To Z key for your portfolio next.
Keith Lansford
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
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Earn a business degree on your terms at Capella University. Our Flexpath format is available in select programs and lets you learn on your schedule. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.
Jim Cramer
Over the past month or so, the vast majority of stocks have rebounded from the lows. Some truly great names are still way off their highs. Take Kava Group, Mediterranean restaurant chain that I've been recommending for the past 18 months because I think it's a tremendous regional to national growth story now. I started pushing Kava in November of 2023. At that point the stock was in the lower 30s and ended up being one of our biggest winners last year, rallying to a high of 172 and change for cooling off a bit in the end of the year. Now that actually the pullback is probably healthy, stock had gotten pretty overheated at the highs it was selling for more than 300 times earnings. Since then it's cooled off rapidly, dropping to $70 at its low on April 7 for rebounding to 96 and change. Today, by the way, I doubled down on this one was trading 77 mid March. Why? Because it just seemed too cheap to me versus growth rate. And throughout this roller coaster experience, Kavas kept putting up excellent numbers while growing its store base across the country revamping its loyalty program. The story never derailed in the first place, even though the stock sold off hard. So it has been heartening to see this one rebound more than 40% from its April lows through last night's close. But after the close, Kav reported this is difficult. Wall street wasn't too thrilled, even though I thought the quarter was very strong. Let me explain. The company posted 10.8% same store sales growth. That is terrific. But analysts were looking for 11%. That was fueled by 7.5% traffic growth, which allowed Kava to put up a modest revenue beat. But the margins were so much stronger than expected that these guys were able to grow earnings before depreciation, interest, taxes and amortization by 35% year over year. And Kava earned 22 cents per share when Wall street was only looking for for $0.14. Holy cow. With the strong first quarter results, Cabo also raised its full year forecast for net new restaurants openings by two units and took its adjusted EBITDA forecast up by $2 million. And the company reiterated its guidance calling for same restaurant sales growth of 6 to 8% and a restaurant level profit margin of 24.8 to 25.2%. Not bad. In the first quarter, Cava opened 15 net new locations. Good. I don't want to open them too Fast. Including its first restaurant in Indiana, bringing the company's footprint to 26 states and district of Columbia. They also expanded the presence in Florida by entering the Greater Miami area. Think about how much room they have. They just got to Miami. Looking forward, management said they're excited to continue expanding across the Midwest and Mid Atlantic with entries into Detroit and Pittsburgh coming very soon. Longer term cover says it and I'm going to quote well on its way to its goal of at least 1000 restaurants by 2032 x end quote. That's up from 382 locations right now. Good flight path on the menu innovation front, management spoke about Copper's new Spice World campaign for this upcoming summer, which includes the recently debuted hot Harissa pita chips and two new bowls. Copy also spent a lot of time talking about a marketing campaign with a new character named Peter Chip, whose birthday was on national P today, March 29. When Kava gave away free pita chips for the loyalty program members, frankly I found it a bit silly. But then again, I'm clearly not the core audience they're trying to appeal to. Although it's one right down the block today, so it's just completely packed. Here's the important point. CEO Brett Shulman explained that and I'm going to quote again by aligning the promotion with a branded holiday in social storytelling, we saw increased reach, record high app traffic, and over 130% more rewards redeemed than originally anticipated. It's a launch we're excited to build on in the years ahead. End quote. So yeah, Peter, Chip might sound stupid to you, but Kava's clearly finding success with its marketing its loyalty program. I guess dad jokes are back in Speaking of the loyalty program, Kava seeing great progress since the big update last fall. On the conference call, Schulman noted sales to the loyalty program were up 340 basis points as a percentage of total revenue. With total membership now up approaching 8 million members later this year, Kaba plans to roll out the next phase of the program that's going to be a tier new tiered structure designed to further tailor benefits to guest preferences and enhance long term engagement. This all sounds great to me and you certainly can't argue against the results so far. Meanwhile, all the coverage from sell side analysts was universally positive, a couple of them even raising the price targets overnight. This wasn't a perfect quarter, but in my view it was a real good one. Certainly better a lot of the restaurants that pile. Yet after some choppy overnight trading, the stock only pulled back today, finishing the session down over 2%. Frankly, I'm actually not that worried about that decline. I think the small pullback today simply reflects the combination of the stock's big run going into the quarter and the fact that expectations for Kava are still pretty darn high after its incredible outperformance last year. For example, the company raised its full year adjusted EBITDA outlook by $2 million to a new range of 152 to 159 million. Which is good, right? Well, unfortunately that only brought the guidance closer to consensus EBITDA forecast which stood at 159.7 million as of last night's close. The new numbers again still little light. They reiterate the same restaurant sales growth of outlook of 68% that also fell a bit below the sense estimate which sat at 8.4% heading to the quarter. In other words, the the consensus estimates for Kava were already above what the company itself is promising. Those aren't weak numbers people COP will be going up against some tough comparisons. The future though I remain in the same place on this one. I view COP as a long term growth play or what's known as a compound or Wall Street. We like those which grows and grows steadily over a long period of time, even after the stock's big pullback from its highs. This isn't a value play by any stretch of the imagination as Kava still sells for north of 150 times earnings. Nobody says it's cheap. These great growers don't come cheap. I just think a situation where the scale of the opportunity is more much, much larger than Kava's current $11 billion market capitalization. That's another way to look at it, the opportunity versus what it's valued at. So I am not worried about the negative reaction day. And if you don't yet own this stock, you might want to use this pullback on strong results as a chance to do some buying. I do have one caveat though. Because copper is a high multiple price earnings multiple name, its stock will do very poorly if we get another big what's known as risk off market environment. It's a term I guess don't like, but it means that investors want to shy away from risky stocks then that's what we saw from February through mid April. But the bottom line, even if the market rolls over and covered pulls back again, then I once again view that as an opportunity to build a position. Just like when I told you to buy the stock back in 77 in April. Despite the hammering about the economy, I've not seen anything to make me believe that Kava can't still become the great next story. And I'm talking about yes, when we talk about restaurants, maybe the next Chipotle. As long as the regional national expansion is on track and it is, this one should have plenty more upside. Great opportunity here. Now we're going to go to Elaine and my old home state of Pennsylvania. Elaine.
Rod
Hello Kramer.
Jim Cramer
How you doing? I am doing well, Elaine. How about you?
Rod
Very good, very good. I'm coming from New Hope, Pennsylvania.
Jim Cramer
Well, I gotta tell you, you're 10 minutes from my place in Pennsylvania and I like New Hope a plenty. My daughter's there right now. What's happening? Well, I want to know about what to do with Netflix. Well, you know what, when you have a stock like Netflix, you got to do two things. One is you got to take out your cost basis which is allows you to be able to play the house's money. And two is forget about it, let it run. Once you take out cost basis, what happens? You can't lose money and that's the way you invest in this country. If the market does pull back anytime soon, I'd use an opportunity to pick up some shares of Cava. Okay, it's not cheap, but it's never going to be really cheap. I view this one as the next great growth story in the restaurant industry. Mediterranean food. Chipotle at one point was like this. Let's keep focused on this one. Much more money including my exclusive on the state of the Mac and more with Republic Services. Top press. Then what should we be taking away from the recent season of the stock market? I'm giving you some stocks to keep an eye on as tariffs continue to affect the tape and articles rapid fire in tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Creamer. Why don't we do it? The cyclical economic economically sensitive stocks. Now the president has rolled back or paused the most radical elements of his tariff agenda, greatly reducing the prospect of recession, thank heavens. Consider the case of Public Services, one of the leading waste management companies in America with a stock that's been an incredible long term performer. I couldn't believe how well it's done over this for a decade or even longer. It's up 23% year to date. To waste management is a cyclical business entirely tied to construction. Generates tons of garbage, but I like the portfolio. These guys have it in many different baskets. In late April, Public Services turned in a technically mixed quarter, but overall solid growth. Slight top line miss but also a solid 5 cent bottom line beat off a $2 basis. Magic also reiterated the full year forecast. If you're still worried about the uncertainty created by the tariffs or the reason creep higher of interest rates, maybe it's time to, I don't know, be nervous here. But if you think the economy is fine, this is a great place to be. So how about we go right to the source? Let's go to John Vander Arach, the president CEO of Public Services here, how the business is actually doing. Mr. Vanderk, welcome back to Money.
John Vander Ark
Great to be with you. Thanks Jeff.
Jim Cramer
You know John, I want people to understand that Republic Services has one of the most, if you want an industrial company, predictable free cash flows. I was surprised at how great it is. Totally diversified around the nation, but really the most amazing thing is 80% of your business is an enormous annuity type. So you may look like you've got a lot of cyclicality but in reality things are pretty darn smooth.
John Vander Ark
Yeah, we like to say we're not recession proof, but we're recession resilient. So very recurring revenue base, very predictable. You know, stable cost structure, pretty good outlook on pricing and so that's, you know, a formula that investors like.
Jim Cramer
Now I know, for instance, I have a, I have a place in Pennsylvania and I just got what I guess what they basically they dropped. One guy dropped me, I was in, another guy picked me up. I found it was highly unusual. I didn't know about it. It looks like that you guys, you retain your business for a very, very long time. And that's also part of the secret sauce of Republic.
John Vander Ark
Yeah, it's a slow growth business on the other side. So that makes it a loyalty business. So we have about a 94% retention rate with our customers. And so we focus on doing a great job and giving them no reason to switch. We want to pick them up every time, make it easy to pay your bill, exchange your container and if we do a great job, customers stay with us for a decade or longer.
Jim Cramer
Now, how are you handling the sustainability? Because I think you've got a very. I know it's only not as much yet as I want, but it's going to be. But you've got this polymer centers idea that to me makes a lot of sense in terms of trying to recycle things.
John Vander Ark
Yeah, we're challenging every ton that goes into a landfill or even any ton that goes into a, a recycling center. Today, could we do something more or better with it? So today most rigid plastics go into something like pipes, park benches or carpets. And the idea of the polymer center is to be able to take that product one step further along the value chain and turn that water bottle back into food grade recycled pt. And so we've got cases on the west coast where you could buy a water bottle in the west coast and in 120 days it could come through our system and be back as far as flake in a new water bottle on your grocery store shelf.
Jim Cramer
Now is that something you've decided to do because you're good citizens or is there also good business for shareholders? Both.
John Vander Ark
We always say if you're going to be environmentally sustainable, you've got to be economically sustainable. So the world needs circular solutions, but those have to be profitable if they're going to be long term and you're going to reinvest in those. So we're putting about 320 million of capital across four polymer centers across the US and that's going to have kind of a double digit cash on cash return. So it's going to be great for our investors as well.
Jim Cramer
Okay, I was on Wait. I was listening yesterday to Wal Mart's call and what they talk about is that there are a lot of hidden things that you never thought would be a problem. You know there'll be parts, some delivery stuff that it turns out that they're things are more variable because of tariffs. Are you discovering, I would say hidden costs that are now an issue and can you contain them?
John Vander Ark
Yeah, we're, we're not again immune from tariffs but it's got a pretty diminished impact. So some of the trucks we buy for example might be subject to that. Some of the spare parts we buy to fix those trucks over time. But we're, we're asking our suppliers to be very transparent on marking up what is a terror are spelling out what is a tariff charge so that when the tariffs come down or tariffs change that we're not stuck with a higher pricing. And I think that's going to be important if we don't want inflation to creep into this system.
Jim Cramer
Okay. And listening to know is you're still finding outfits to buy. I had felt in the 80s and 90s when it was Waste Management and Browning first there were no individual franchise that were left to buy. Guess that's not the case.
John Vander Ark
Yeah, we did a hidden secret. We do about 20 acquisitions a year. There's still a pretty big tail in the industry and those are great acquisitions for us to do because we can layer those right into the density density of our collection operations. We can put those into our IT systems. We could take those people over and 60 days later you don't even know we bought the company. And we get great, you know, kind of a great post synergy multiple from those acquisitions.
Jim Cramer
And you've got customers that are in construction, you got construction, some of them that are in also waste that's tough to handle. What is their overall look when you speak to them about where are they in terms of thinking that the economy is, Are they pessimistic or optimistic? Optimism, because the level of pessimism we got today in some consumer data was so off the charts that I hate to think that that's representative of the nation.
John Vander Ark
Yeah, construction, direct construction is about 7 to 8% of our revenue and that's certainly been challenged both single family home and commercial construction. And until I think the ten year comes down.
Jim Cramer
Right.
John Vander Ark
I think we're not going to see a boom there. Although long term I'm very optimistic because we need more single family homes United States States. I'd say manufacturing has been more of a mixed picture where the industrials, automotive, that's been softer really for the last 36 months. But high tech biopharma has been stronger. I think More broadly, there's a lot of uncertainty and there's pockets of weakness, but people conflate the two. I think there's more uncertainty than weakness and I think if we got stability in policy, I think there could be a lot of upside into this economy.
Jim Cramer
Boy, that's very helpful for me too and for many of our viewers because we just need, we needed what I've been saying, a more constructive view. That was a constructive way to look at the country right now. John Vander Rock is President CEO of Republic Services rsg. What a winner. You've given us some amazing long term growth, sir. Thank you so much.
John Vander Ark
Great to be with you.
Jim Cramer
May have been back in.
CNBC Producer
Coming up, Cramer takes your calls and the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round next.
Jim Cramer
It is time. It's time for the lightning cameras everybody. That's right. Take round for. Oh, I'm saving this dark center. Bye bye bye. So soon tip. You know the course? Not quite. We play into the sound and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? Light round came to the top of Gabe in Michigan. Gabe.
Rod
Booyah. Jim, how's it going?
Jim Cramer
It is going well, Gabe. How about you?
Rod
Garrett? Thanks for taking my question. So the stock has had very nice strength, fundamentally and technically even through the correction. What do you think of uti? I think you go way higher.
Jim Cramer
Okay. This is what we need in the country is trade school and I think that it jives very well with where we are in the economy. So I'm going to tell you, I think it continue to go higher because it fits the thesis of what we expect in an era of AI and the need to be on your game in non AI jobs. Let's go to Travis in Minnesota. Travis.
Rod
Hey, Jimmy Till. Thanks for taking my call.
Jim Cramer
My pleasure. What's up?
Rod
Buy now, pay later space. Specifically company Sezzle ticker S easy.
Jim Cramer
I think. I think sezzle's in a crowded space. I know it hit an all time high. I would actually bring the register on some sessile because even though it's not sizzle, I do think, and I'm looking right now by a chief scientist and research director Ben. Ben Stutter. We both feel that it's. It's gotten a little too hot. I think that's fair. How about we go to Gabriel in Colorado? Gabriel.
Rod
Hey Jim. Big fan. Hope you're doing well. Tommy. Rocket Labs.
Jim Cramer
You know what this Rocket Labs, initially I have to tell you because I don't like companies that lose a lot of money. I was skeptical but so many companies need to put up rockets. I think it's actually a decent story and that's a spec that I've not recommended until just now. Let's go to Lewis in California. Lewis. Yes.
Rod
Jim, how you doing today?
Jim Cramer
I'm doing well, how about you?
Rod
Terrific, thank you. I was calling in about Archer Aviation.
Jim Cramer
It. Oh, that one's a bridge too far for me to tell you the truth. Electric vertical takeoff. I mean I. I'm willing to go with Rocket Lab, but Archer is just a little bit too far. I mean someone who's like 18, 19, 20, 21, you might want to believe in it. I don't want to have too many of these kinds of stocks on my so called recommended list. Let's go to Rich in Virginia. Rich. Jim, thanks for taking my call and for calling your team. Yep, thanks for everything you and your team do for us investors. Thank you very much. Hey, wanted to get your thoughts on.
Rod
Ticker symbol C S G P Costar Group.
Jim Cramer
Okay, normally this and I know these guys, normally it would be good to have analytics involving commercial real estate. But right now commercial real estate is not doing well in this country. We know that. So that's their core fundament business. And yet the stock sells at a very high priced earnings multiple. It does make money though. But it's not for me. Let's go to George in Arizona. George.
Rod
A big old Friday Boogie boogie. Booyah to you, Jimmy Chill.
Jim Cramer
A speculative Friday. Booyah to you my friend. What's up?
Rod
We're looking at something in energy today for a change. I got this stock that's jumped nicely up 24%. The earnings per share and guidance look juicy and the dividends hard to ignore. Symbol Z N O M. Viper Energy.
Jim Cramer
I know. Mineral royalty reminds me of Texas Pacific Land Trust. It's not my cup of tea, but I've got to tell you, if you want to get some yield. I see it, but it is down 15% which by the way would take away whatever a 5% yield would give you keep that in mind. How about Ryan in Ohio? Ryan? Hey Jimbo, it's Ryan and Kat here. Okay, what's going on? Hey, we're looking Yesterday at the Pfizer Fi got their teeth kicked in. Yeah, I gotta tell you, this is one where I said I've got to take my time and figure out what the heck is going wrong with fiserv. This was just a disaster and I've got to know more because I don't like what I'm hearing. Let's go to Eli in California. Hila.
Christine Brun
This is Hila from California. Thank you for taking my call. I'm.
Rod
Of course I'm follow.
Jim Cramer
All right.
Christine Brun
Yes, I thank you for spreading all the knowledge. But anyway, my question is regarding Arista Network.
Jim Cramer
Recent networks had a better quarter this time than the previous quarter. At the same time, I will tell you, here's what concerns me. I think Cisco did a better job this quarter and is taking some of their business. I'd rather have you go with Cisco, which is a much cheaper stock. And that lady of the Lightning Round.
CNBC Producer
The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up with a recession seemingly off the table, Kramer's evaluating what changes in the hedge fund playbook drove this week's rally.
Jim Cramer
Next, we often speak of moments when the stock market tends to do well. We know there's seasonal periods and patterns that are terrific. We know that stocks thrive, for instance, when interest rates are going down. But there's another auspicious moment and that's when the conventional wisdom collectively decides that because of extenuating circumstances, in this case welcome break from ever higher tariffs, we're no longer at risk of a recession in the near future. For as long as I've been in the business, that's a terrific time to buy and I think that's where we are right now. When we look back at this week, a very bullish one. We're going to remember it as a time when Wall street analysts, particularly the strategists, took the recession concerns off the table. And that's why we had such terrific run, including this fabulous industrial led rally that we got this week. Why did this happen? Not that long ago when we were all terrified of how bad Liberation Day tariffs would be for retail, a buddy consensus emerged that our consumer led economy simply couldn't hold up under the weight of these tariffs. And a recession, well, it was inevitable. Then we got the three month stay of execution, the global tariffs which mattered. But we saw the China tariffs almost like an embargo which could have done real damage. Certainly there would have been shortages, but fortunately on Saturday night there was a break in the talks with China. And while there are still some tariffs, they're not going to be big enough to wipe out the economy. So the companies that were levered to economic growth, think about companies like Caterpillar, United Rentals, Deere saw their stocks buoyed by the removal of the recession worry. You saw some of that at work yesterday when Dear reported a solid quarter but was cautious about the future, something that would have at One time set the stock down a few weeks ago, but this time actually spurred a rally in the company's stock. You also saw it when Wal Mart reported terrific quarter yesterday and the stock went up at first before plummeting when management mentioned the need to stay concerned about tariffs. The stock then rallied back though and continue to move higher today. Something that would never have happened to people still worried about a near term recession. It's so prevalent in the markets dialogue right now that UBS came out with a terrific term for it. The contained downside scenario. They think that quote, lingering uncertainty will be somewhat of a drag on demand, end quote, but that we're going to get through this. Why is this switch so big? Because when money managers believe there's a high chance we're headed for recession, they not only sell a lot of stocks, they also short bet against anything with economic sensitivity like the industrials. When the chief callous for these short positions, the imminent recession suddenly dissipates. These short selling hedge funds have to buy back stock to close out their positions because there's no longer a thesis for them. The stocks they tend to short things like Caterpillar, United, Reynolds, Cummins, the paper stocks, building products, chemicals, truckers. When the hedge funds come in to cover them because it's concentrated group of stocks they bet against, well, they give you what we sold this week. Now we haven't yet seen the actual hit the consumers from the tariffs and that is going to come now. Wal Mart made that abundantly clear. We also don't know how much the consumer will be heard. That depends on how much of the tariffs get eaten by suppliers or retailers and how much will get passed on. That's one of the reasons why people feel this is the end of the rally. Still though, if hedge funds thought we were about to experience the apocalypse and many of them did, then they were poorly positioned coming into this week. And when hedge funds are poorly positioned, you get incredibly motivated buyers like the ones we saw all week that helped take us all the way almost back to even. And they may not be done with all their buy at least because we're suddenly in a very different world with the pessimists having been caught with their pants down. Until they turn optimistic, which might take a little bit, we should remain in good shape. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and I promise try to find it. Just for you right here. Mad Money. I'm Jim Cramer and I'll see you Monday.
Jim Cramer Disclaimer
All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer Earn a business.
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Podcast Information:
Jim Cramer kicks off the episode by highlighting a robust day in the stock market:
Key Drivers:
Cramer poses critical questions about the market's bullish trend continuing amidst concerns over the recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's:
“Can the bullish procession continue? And maybe will it matter that after the close this very evening, Moody's, the important rating agency, downgraded the U.S. credit rating because of our government's debt increase.” ([02:20])
Despite this downgrade, Cramer remains optimistic, emphasizing the strength of business fundamentals and hinting at exciting developments from Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, at the upcoming Computex keynote ([05:15]).
“I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia has more room to run, particularly because there are a lot of people who felt that it should never been at $3 trillion in the first place, and they've been proven wrong.” ([04:10])
“Capital One is my favorite stock right now in the charitable trust, even as it just gained almost 20 points this month alone. I think the move is far from over.” ([07:00])
“At 7 times earnings though, I think you want to own this one.” ([09:00])
“I buy this one ahead of the quarter too.” ([11:00])
“If you don't yet own this stock, you might want to use this pullback on strong results as a chance to do some buying.” ([28:00])
UnitedHealth (UNH)
“I would sell, I would use strength to sell even more.” ([10:04])
Visa (V)
“I think Visa is sensational... MasterCard's actually growing a little bit faster. But they are both fabulous companies.” ([10:54])
Additional Recommendations:
“I'd rather have you go with Cisco, which is a much cheaper stock.” ([42:09])
Key Topics Discussed:
Company Culture & Philanthropy:
“72% of our transactions are with our Dutch Rewards members... it provides extraordinary value that keeps them coming back.” ([16:45])
Expansion Plans:
Product Innovation:
Tariff Management:
“Our plan is not to pass that [cost increase] on to our customers and to keep our great value proposition.” ([18:57])
Mobile Ordering:
Notable Quote:
“72% of our transactions are with our Dutch Rewards members. And I think as you share, that's truly impressive given how quickly we're growing.” ([16:45])
Key Topics Discussed:
Business Resilience:
“We are not recession proof, but we're recession resilient.” ([32:01])
Sustainability Initiatives:
“We're putting about 320 million of capital across four polymer centers across the US and that's going to have kind of a double digit cash on cash return.” ([34:18])
Handling Tariffs:
“We're asking our suppliers to be very transparent on marking up what is a tariff or spelling out what is a tariff charge.” ([35:02])
Acquisitions Strategy:
Economic Outlook:
“More broadly, there's a lot of uncertainty and there's pockets of weakness... I think if we got stability in policy, I think there could be a lot of upside into this economy.” ([36:41])
Notable Quote:
“We like to say we're not recession proof, but we're recession resilient. So very recurring revenue base, very predictable.” ([32:25])
Jim Cramer engages with callers in rapid-fire questions, providing succinct buy/sell/hold recommendations:
Gabe from Michigan on UTi (UTI)
“I think it continues to go higher because it fits the thesis of what we expect in an era of AI.” ([38:28])
Travis from Minnesota on Sezzle (SZL)
“Sezzle's in a crowded space... I do think it's gotten a little too hot.” ([38:58])
Lewis from California on Archer Aviation (ACHR)
“Archer is just a little bit too far... I don't want to have too many of these kinds of stocks on my recommended list.” ([39:42])
Rich from Virginia on CoStar Group (CSGP)
“Commercial real estate is not doing well... it's not for me.” ([40:25])
George from Arizona on Viper Energy (VNOM)
“Mineral royalty reminds me of Texas Pacific Land Trust... not my cup of tea.” ([40:47])
Cramer's Analysis on Market Rally Drivers:
“When hedge funds are poorly positioned, you get incredibly motivated buyers like the ones we saw all week that helped take us all the way almost back to even.” ([42:42])
Economic Outlook:
Closing Remarks:
“There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to try to find it. Just for you right here. Mad Money.” ([46:29])
In this episode of "Mad Money," Jim Cramer provides a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape, highlighting key stock performances and strategic recommendations. Engaging interviews with industry leaders like Christine Brun of Dutch Bros and John Vander Ark of Republic Services offer deeper insights into their companies' growth and resilience strategies. The Lightning Round delivers quick, actionable advice to listeners, while Cramer's final analysis underscores a bullish market outlook driven by shifting hedge fund strategies and improved trade relations.
Notable Quotes:
On Market Resilience:
“Unless we get news of new hostilities in the trade war with China, I think this market's propensity will still be to go higher even though we are overbought.” ([08:00])
On Long-Term Investment:
“I think it's a real good one. Certainly, better a lot of the restaurants that pile.” ([28:00])
On Hedge Funds' Role:
“When hedge funds are poorly positioned, you get incredibly motivated buyers like the ones we saw all week that helped take us all the way almost back to even.” ([42:42])
This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and recommendations from the May 16, 2025 episode of "Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer," providing valuable information for investors seeking to navigate the evolving Wall Street landscape.