Transcript
Jim Cramer (0:00)
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Russ Becker (1:09)
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to make money. Welcome to Kramerica. Other people make friends. Hey look, I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain you, but to put it in context. So call me at 1-800-743- CNBC. Tweet me at jimcramer. We're always one posting, one whisper away from rallying. As long as you recognize that the President's in control of the stock market, at least when he wants to be, we can make sense of this tape. And that's my conclusion when I look at the averages which were down badly in the morning and then rebounded with the Dow gaining 35 points. SB rising.4%. Nasdaq gained 0.67%. Quite a comeback from the lows today around 10:30 with the market looking real ugly. A casualty of no talks with the Chinese this weekend. Here CNBC's own IM jabbers, K1 Air reported that President Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak this week. The expected discussion wouldn't happen today, he reported, but it was likely to happen very soon. In the words of of the senior White House official. Jabber spoke with and with that one report, the market did an entire one 80.
Jim Cramer (2:20)
That was easy.
Russ Becker (2:20)
Funny, we saw the same exact pattern on Friday. Market going lower like really spiraled down at the president's. No more Mr. Nice Guy. True social posting early Friday morning. Then during the farewell event for Elon Musk at the White House Friday afternoon, the President says something positive about talking to Xi and the market flies right back, allowing the month of May to finish extremely positive way, the strongest since 1990 with gain of more than 6%. So what does this tell us about the stock market? First, it says that the President means completely in the driver's seat, regardless of his mercurial nature. No one thought he hasn't really delivered on his promises at all yet. At least when it comes to trade, no one has come to the table from Europe or Asia except for the UK we already had trade surplus with. Imagine anyone else leaking that the talks could be back on after nothing happened this weekend. We're told the talks could be coming this week. Really? I mean, do we even know? A single anonymous source turned this whole market around today. Incredible. It gets worse. The Chinese are attacking our government handling of semiconductors and tit for tat. They're now slow walking licenses for key rare earth minerals. In other words, it's not that nothing happened this weekend. Things actually got worse this weekend. Now American companies are complaining they're not getting rare earth magnets that are critical for the auto industry and the Defense Department for that matter. Amazing. We let the Defense Department be hosted in China, but they have a stranglehold on these rare earths. Given that both sides are taking an ever harder line with a phone call, will she even accomplish anything? The answer? It doesn't matter. Doesn't matter at all whether accomplish anything. This market's so hopeful that President Trump will do what's right for stocks that it's blind to the truth. He is happy to have operas leak just about any story to stem a decline, but he's not happy to have a genuine trade peace with China. Let me give you the details. We know that the Chinese desperately want. What do they want? Nvidia's chips. That's their whole complaint. The market again so hopeful. Sending video, stock flying on the news, potential talks. Buyers are betting that Trump will change course and allow Nvidia to sell up to $50 billion with the chips. Billion dollars for the chips to China this year alone. And China will cut us a break with our rare earth needs. The art of the deal. Yet this stance, leaked by still one more White House official, seems pretty definitive. Maybe it's all negotiation, another hopeful view this market keeps taking. Or maybe it's over. But does anyone truly believe that this administration will give China what it wants? Hey, anything's possible. That seems a stretch to me. Even Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said the President has a plan. By the way, I think Jensen makes a very compelling case when he argues that we should let him video sell those chips to the Chinese because otherwise China will indeed invest much more heavily in their own semiconductor industry. Wouldn't it be better to blunt China's efforts to leapfrog us and keep them dependent on our chips the same way we're dependent on their rare earth minerals. Sadly, the White House says no. I think it makes a ton of sense. There's a larger issue here. While Wall street remains constantly optimistic Government do something good for private industry. Our stocks keep getting walloped. Case in point, Dell. Now I love the quarter Dell reported last Thursday. It was huge and the buyback was incredibly aggressive. This company's a true believer in itself. Good for Dell, good for video. By the way, one of the key component makers. Great business. But on Friday the stock actually went down. One possible reason the government's General Service Administration is trying to put the squeeze at federal contractors, including Dell. According to the Wall Street Journal, the GSA is quote, asking executives to justify their work and find areas to cut. Do you know how many of these federal contractors buy their pieces and servers from Dell? It's definitely not a small number. Now these tech oriented government contractors and consultants, they have seen their stocks eviscerated by Booz Allen Hamlin stocks plunged 129, 103 over the past week and a half. 129 to 103 after its grim guidance in anticipation of more federal spending cuts. Now I think they'll still be tremendously. But if the government keeps cutting back on its tech spending, that's going to hurt them too. Hence the $3 decline for Dell today. Sure, the White House periodically looks like it's going to do something for business like this trip by three cabinet officials. Alaska jumpstart incredibly expensive natural gas pipeline One that's unnecessary because we have so much gas in the lower 48 states and that's not in the in the Arctic. It's not in a wildlife preserve. Not that East Texas feels like a wildlife reserve. The feds had to get involved because the energy companies aren't interested. Too costly. It's kind of like how the administration favors opening federal lands for drilling. Lower 48. While cheaper and cleaner than drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it's not cheap enough to justify drilling in these places with oil $62 a barrel. Of course, sometimes we get something genuinely good from the White House for business. Our tariff happy president just doubled the duty on imported steel from 25 to 50%. Something that helps a couple of very good steel companies but hurts every company that makes things out of steel. Did you see how badly the oil companies acted today? It's maybe called a push. Ultimately, I believe the president will end up helping business. A big part of these trade negotiations is Trump helping Boeing sell expensive plays while GE Vernova sells similarly expensive Turbines put the turbines put that, that charge ev up. It's unbelievable. Nvidia Many tech companies like Cisco racked up big wins when the President visited the Gulf monarchies. But against that, consider that on nearly every quarterly conference call I've listened to since Liberation Day, companies have had to quantify their tarif it it's been brutal. Just as shareholders of the gap which punched from 28 to 22 on Friday. I don't even want to think about what's happened to Apple because it dared to move some iPhone manufacturing from China to India. Trump's hitting those phones with a 25% tariff because he wants them to be made in us. From Apple's perspective, it's probably cheaper just to pay the 25. So we have to appreciate the markets underlining optimism when a nameless White House Stafford can save the day by down the prospects of a phone call with President Xi. It just reminds us how bullish investors really are right now. They just only seem beari bottom line. We have to be ready for disappointment because we've seen it over and over and over again. This administration is perfectly willing to disappoint the stock market. Not bitcoin, but the stock market to advance their agenda. And it's foolish that you should believe otherwise. Hey, speaking of Texas, Jim in Texas. Jim, hello, this is Jim Texas from Houston. Fantastic. I love Houston. What's going on?
