Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/1/26

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – July 1, 2026

Host: Jim Cramer (CNBC)
Episode Theme: New Quarter, Rotations, IPO Frenzy, Dollar Dynamics, and Missed Opportunities
Summary Prepared For: Listeners seeking an in-depth, structured, and engaging recap (with quotes and key timestamps).

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Episode Overview

Jim Cramer kicks off the third quarter of 2026 by breaking down the current state of the stock market, examining sector rotations, the IPO boom (especially SpaceX and AI firms), and the surging U.S. dollar. He delves into notable winners, speculative opportunities, and a candid reflection on top stocks he regrets missing. As ever, Cramer’s mission is to level the playing field for investors—educating, entertaining, and helping listeners navigate Wall Street with a sharper edge.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Quarterly Rotation & Market Trends

• Rotation Patterns: As a new quarter begins, “hope always springs eternal”—Cramer notes that we typically see money rotating from top stocks to underperformers, as investors chase/rebalance positions. Historically, these rotations are brief.

  • Quote: “We almost always get a tremendous rotation out of the winners into the underperformers as people bet that the market has excessively punished the laggards…” (01:11)
  • Insight: Rotations rarely last more than a couple days.

• Major Indexes: Minor declines for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq at the session's close.

2. Deep Dives: Stocks & Sectors

a. Mega Cap Tech & Cloud

• Meta Platforms ($META):

  • Major rally after confirmation Meta will rent out compute power, entering the cloud infrastructure space.
  • Quote: “This move could be worth $100 per share... I think it’s got more room to run because their cloud business will be instantly profitable.” (01:38)
  • Prediction: Price/Earnings multiple will expand, further upside potential.

• Enterprise Software (Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir):

  • Salesforce & ServiceNow rallied amid the rotation, but Cramer urges caution—AI platforms are cutting seat licenses.
  • Quote: “...these gains, they may be ephemeral... the only one right now that I actually trust is Palantir.” (04:03)
  • Palantir seen as “fastest grower I follow" and finally showing signs of life.

b. Financials & Insurers

• Private Equity:

  • Goldman’s low investor redemption is a relief; Blackstone favored over riskier Blue Owl.
  • Quote: “I think this wins a sign that the private equity stocks are at last out of the woods. The narrative of private credit chaos... is phony.” (04:25)
  • Cramer criticizes media-driven panic: “Looking back, it's hard to believe how wrong the doomsayers were.” (05:15)

• Insurance:

  • Health insurers (CVS, UnitedHealth), drug distributors (Cardinal Health, McKesson) doing well.
  • Regular insurers (Travelers, Allstate, Prudential) could be ripe for consolidation. “If we get one merger, we’re going to get many.” (06:14)

c. Consumer & Food

• General Mills and Packaged Foods: Blowout quarter, big rally, but Cramer is wary—“structural headwinds” remain (high costs, shallow growth).
  • “These up moves... are ephemeral.” (05:40)
• Nike: Recent rally won’t last, no underlying earnings bump. Cramer is candid: “We lost a ton of money... I always tell about the winners. We lost a ton of money in this.” (07:35)
• Walmart: Down nearly 4% and now in the red year-to-date – Cramer disagrees with the bear case, sees the decline as excessive. (08:56)

d. Cyclical Tech & Data Centers

• Data Center Stocks: Meta’s cloud push prompts profit-taking and panic selling in the sector, but Cramer likes Micron – “earnings power’s there, 8 times earnings.”
• Corning: Sold off hard, seen as overdone – potential for fiber to replace copper in data infrastructure.
• AMD & Applied Materials: Dips present rare buying opportunities; supply/demand for their chips & equipment remains robust.

3. The IPO Boom – Frenzy & Cautionary Tales

(15:06–21:58)

• Record IPO Proceeds: $115B so far this year (up 636% YoY), primarily on the back of SpaceX’s massive $75–$86B deal.
• Quote: “We’ve been inundated... Most of the IPOs have been holding up pretty well... but we’ve had plenty of cautionary tales.” (15:38)
• SpaceX: Managed sensibly by underwriters, but now “hostage to the mechanics of the market”—future insider selling likely after lockups expire.
• AI IPOs (Anthropic, OpenAI): Regulatory risks and possible delays—government interventions loom large.
  • “If OpenAI doesn’t come public this year... a merger with Microsoft... could be possible.” (20:34)
• Advice: Hot IPOs often “blow up in your face”; resist FOMO—“buying hot stocks right after they come public tends to be a recipe for disaster” (17:02).

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4. Macro Watch: The Soaring Dollar and Commodity Impacts

With Carly Garner, Senior Commodities Strategist
(23:17–31:27)

• Dollar's Revival: Dollar index rebounding sharply—trend likely to accelerate by year-end due to cash repatriation by multinationals.
  • Quote: “Put it all together and [Garner] believes the dollar will continue to move higher. Remember, that’s a headwind for most commodities and most stocks, particularly... companies that are international in their commerce.” (25:47)
• Oil: Prices fell hard due to Iran diplomacy, new supply, emergency pipelines; “Bear market rally” expected. Huge leveraged short positions in oil ETFs could spark a short squeeze if geopolitics flare, but upside capped at $80–$85 unless major war returns.
• Gold: Sell signals predominate. Relative strength index says brief relief rally possible but “as the dollar continues to strengthen... losses aren’t over.” (30:16)
  • Memorable Line: “Sell your gold... The insanity pivot price.” (30:15)

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5. Callers & Lightning Round Highlights

(09:54, 31:27, 39:50)

• Notable Calls:
  • Affirm ($AFRM): Both Cramer and guest Robert gush; Cramer believes $100 is “a straight shot.” (11:09)
  • NextEra ($NEE): “I like NextEra very much. I would use this decline... to jump in.” (12:19)
  • Oracle ($ORCL): “Absolutely not. Oracle is one of the stocks I’m most worried about... Data center building is not their strength.” (31:34)
  • Gold Stocks (Agnico): Still bearish; suggests gold will drop further. (32:17)
  • Medline (IPO): “Probably the best IPO of the year.” (41:32)
  • ASTS: “Great speculative stock… can make money in two years.” (42:07)
  • NuScale Power: Declines to recommend as too speculative; prefers GEV. (40:43)

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6. Moderna ($MRNA): A Biotech Turnaround Story

(33:10–39:43)

• Moderna’s Performance: Up 146% YTD, driven by regulatory wins, pipeline for cancer and rare disease treatments, flu vaccine using mRNA tech poised for approval.
• Cramer’s Take: “Moderna finally feels investable again. That said, I recommend waiting for a pullback. There probably will be one before you buy. Take your time. I think Moderna’s got a bright future though it’ll take years to get there.” (38:46)

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7. Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Meta Cloud Move:
  • “Meta’s cloud business will be instantly profitable... raising numbers, Meta.” (01:49)
• Media Panic on Private Credit:
  • “This scare... led to billions of dollars in losses for every soul who was involved... panic was fomented every day.” (05:15)
• Candid Losses:
  • “We lost a ton of money for the trust on Nike. I always tell about the winners. We lost a ton of money in this.” (07:35)
• IPOs as a Market Risk:
  • “Remember, a bull can be killed by excess supply and we don’t want OpenAI playing matador.” (21:51)
• Dollar/Commodity Wisdom:
  • “Sell your gold...” (30:16)
  • “Oil is a bear market rally... if you get it, you gotta sell.” (30:34)
• Self-Reflection:
  • Cheese Monger’s $13 million NVIDIA win thanks to Cramer, but Cramer is candid about missing other “gettable” winners like Micron, AMD, Dell. (43:47)
  • Quote: “What do all these missed winners have in common? I was too skeptical. I was too cherry, too wary.... I vow to do better this quarter… you deserve nothing less.” (46:38)

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8. Actionable Takeaways

• Rotations are brief—don’t chase laggards blindly.
• Cloud, cyber, and select financials (Blackstone, Cardinal Health) are in focus.
• Beware hot IPOs post-pop—wait for the dust to settle.
• Commodity plays are riskier as the dollar surges.
• Cramer likes Moderna for the long-term but advises patience on entry.
• Lightning Round: Affirm, NextEra, Medline, ASTS = positive; Oracle and gold = negative/avoid.
• Reflect on missed opportunities, but don’t let the past keep you from acting when the next big idea emerges.

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9. Episode Structure & Timestamps

• [01:11] – Opening Market Rotation & Meta Cloud
• [04:25] – Financials, Insurance, Private Equity Analysis
• [05:15] – Food/Consumer, Nike, Walmart Selloff
• [08:56] – Data Center Tech, Micron, Corning, AMD, Applied Materials
• [15:06] – IPO Market Breakdown (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI)
• [23:17] – The US Dollar, Oil, and Gold with Carly Garner
• [31:27] – Callers on Oracle, Gold, Lightning Round
• [33:10] – Deep Dive: Moderna’s Biotech Resurgence
• [39:50] – Lightning Round
• [42:47] – Cramer’s Reflection on Missed Big Winners

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For further details, memorable quotes, or specific stock commentary, reference the above timestamps.

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Mad Money’s mantra:
“There’s always a bull market somewhere. I promise I’ll find it just for you—right here on Mad Money.” (46:50)

— End of Summary —

Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

My mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere and I promise to help you find it.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Mad Money starts now. Hey, I'm Kramer.

[Jim Cramer]

Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. Other people want to make friends, not me. I just want to make you some money. My job is not just entertain, but to educate, do some teaching. So call me 1-873-CBC-TWEET Mitchell Kramer at the beginning of a new quarter, hope always brings eternal we almost always get a tremendous rotation out of the winners into the underperformers as people bet that the market has excessively punished the laggards and over awarded the prize possessions. You can't really see it from the average down dip 14 points. The S&P edged down 0.22% as that declined point 66% right at the end of the day. Kind of nasty, but it is major. See, we need to ask ourselves of this rotation is staying power or it's going to burn out after a day or two. Historically, the latter is the more likely outcome. Why don't we do this? Let's start with one of the Mag 7 stocks. Let's start with metal platforms. Last night I told you that Matter could make a fortune simply by announcing it would rent out its extra computing power via a cloud infrastructure business like Amazon Web Services or Microsoft's Azure. Today Bloomberg said Met is doing precisely that and the company confirmed it to me. Now previously I said this move could be worth $100 per share. Today alone that has already rallied nearly $50. And you know what? I think he's got more room to run because their cloud business will be instantly profitable. I Don't know if that needs to an equity offering to pay for more of his data center building.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

I don't.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

That's it.

[Jim Cramer]

It has countless potential clients and it can snare big business, something it needs. Because see right now Met is too much of a consumer oriented advertising company. The enterprise oriented cloud infrastructure game represents a much better, less episodic business model. Now that will cause Meta's incredibly low price earnings multiple to expand and the stock will rise proportionally or in the street terms raising numbers Meta. Next up, after creating all year the soft versus service stocks like Salesforce, like ServiceNow, oh, they were flying today. Now these companies have been hurt by artificial intelligence platforms like anthropics. Claude, I believe AI is cutting a lot of jobs at potential and actual users of their products and their nature businesses. They're not making up for the loss seats. That's the method of payment for these companies by the seat. And that's why I'm betting that these gains, they may be ephemeral. ServiceNow and Salesforce are down so much for the year though of 31 and 38% respectively. They are there.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Look, these are due for at least

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

a couple day bounce but it's just

[Jim Cramer]

a bounce people until we see earnings that can tell a different story. Of this entire enterprise software group, the only one right now that I actually trust is Palantir. This is the fastest grow to the stocks I follow and it's been crushed. Just down 80 points from its high today. It finally showed some signs of light. Hey, I don't know if you caught Alex Karp this morning, my buddy pal friend.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Whoa, smoke show.

[Jim Cramer]

How about the gains in the brokerage and private equity stock groups that have been shelled over worries about their private credit underwritings? This morning Goldman Sachs reported that only 3.24% of its investors chose to exercise the right to get out of their funds to this month Goldman's allowed for 5% cashiering. I think this wins a sign that the private equity stocks are at last out of the woods. In short, the move is real because the narrative of private credit chaos and destruction has proven to be phony. All right, that said, I'd still avoid Blue Al. Too risky. Go buy Blackstone instead. This scare pretty much made up by the media by the way, led to billions of dollars in losses for every soul who was involved in this stuff as the panic was fomented every day. Looking back, it's hard to believe how wrong doomsayers were.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

They know nothing.

[Jim Cramer]

What else were today? How about this Morning. Generous Mills, as we used to call it. General Mills reported a blowout quarter and announced restructuring that could cut $3 billion in cost. By mid-2030, the stock rallied 8.5%. A bunch of food plays followed right in the footsteps, including PepsiCo. Does that mean the packaged food groups are turning a corner? I think not.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

You know why?

[Jim Cramer]

Exactly. There's structural headwinds here, from GOP Dash 1 to rising costs, shallow growth. That's not going to change. These up moves, I believe, are ephemeral. You could get another day of them. But the Processed Food foundation, it has crumbled. How about these outsized moves in the health insurers and the drug distributors? Oh, I like these. I bet the gains in CVS will be long lasting. I like UnitedHealth very much here. Your man is doing great. But can I call your attention to what may be the best one in this group? I'm talking about Cardinal Health, which along with McKesson and Sinkura deserve to trade higher. Great quarter at Cardinal Health. It was obscured by rotation out of health care. Oh, we own this one. For the trust. It's been a real stalwart and I don't think it's done. Next, I'm looking at the run in the regular insurers, which I never talk about. I'm talking Travelers, Allstate, Prudential. This industry is ripe for consolidation, people. We have way too many insurers this country. If we get one merger, we're going to get many. Newton, which had a nice bump, seems fetching too. I haven't said that in 22 years. The cybersecurity stocks are romping again to us. Government is allowing Anthropic to sell this Mythos mischievous program that needs cybersecurity protection. Something Anthropic tried to play down when it showed the product. Mythos will generate a meaningful amount of business for two charitable trust stocks. Crowdstrike, hey, all time high today, Palo Alto Networks did the stock of Nike deserve to run 5% on a beaten down quarter? On a beaten quarter with no raise. No raise guidance for the next couple of quarters. Thanks to a pressure consumer. Maybe it's down so much it looks up to some. We dumped the stock for the capital trust, fully realizing it could rally a couple points. But then I expect it to stall out as there's no earnings bump going forward. All right, so, brain, we lost a ton of money for the trust on Nike. I always tell about the winners. We lost a ton of money in this.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I see.

[Jim Cramer]

I was swayed by the big Insider buying in the return of an old hand to the tiller. Problem is the company has so much global competition now, it's just tough for them to get sustainable momentum. How about the clubbings that we're seeing from the stocks that are on the wrong end of today's rotation? Look at the beat down the data center stocks. Some of this decline is pure profit taking and some of it is mistaken. What I think mistakenly, mistakenly done because of Meta's turn in the data center. I like Micron the most. Like I explained last night the earnings powers there 8 times earnings but the price earnings multiple way too low. I like it. I also think that declining stock of Corning GLW it was off the most of any stock in the entire S&P 500 today. Well, that seems extreme. The fiber could replace copper and all these data centers by the way, both its connectors and maybe even one day within the chips themselves ripping out that hot copper. I like AMD on this dip. I know it's not much of a dip really, but you almost never get this kind of opportunity to buy the stock anymore with this combination of GPUs and CPUs both of which are in high demand now. We recently had Gary Dickerson, the CEO of Applied Materials aim at on the show and his semiconductor capital equipment business is in a long term bull market because of the widespread chip shortage we talk about all the time. It'll take years and years to build enough this machinery to alleviate the shortage. All right, here's one about Wal Mart. Did you see that? Almost down 5%. Closed down 3.9% today. Do you know it's in the red for the year? The thesis here is that oils come down and gasoline will follow, so consumers will no longer need to shop at Wal Mart to save money. I think that's nonsense. I know sometimes it's hard to pay 37 times Wal Mart's earnings, but this one's now full and 26% points from its high. That feels excessive to me.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

How about you?

[Jim Cramer]

Hey, by the way, the decline in TGX is really excessive. But the bottom line here, while rotations don't end in one session, they rarely last longer than two or three. You're now getting a chance to sell the losers at a premium and switch to the winners at a discount. So often this market you look back and you kick yourself that you didn't take advantage of the breaks in the strongest stocks out there. I bet this is one of those breaks. Don't blow it.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

Robert New York Robert Jim, so happy to be on the show tonight and thanks for having me back.

[Jim Cramer]

I'm always happy to have Robert. I'm always happy to have Robert back on the show. Jim, I love it.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

And when you're ready for me to fill in on your vacation, I'll be there. Don't worry about it. I got it all under control.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Really?

[Jim Cramer]

I didn't know you were my copilot.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I hope you're not going to be like Microsoft's copilot.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

We got a lot of things to do. We got a lot of business. So let's get right down to work tonight. Jim. This, this next company is viewed by investors and analysts as an attractive high growth stock due to its market dominance in the US Buy now and pay later sector. The robust revenue and earnings consistently tops Wall Street's estimates. In the most recent quarter, the company delivered a 29.6% year over year revenue jump to 1.12 billion. Jimmy. And achieved a strong earnings surprise, beating estimates by more than 76%. Now, Jim, you have talked about this company and I know you're going to love this baby because you have made me so much money through the years on this one time. You made me 86,000 two to three years ago when this thing jumped. And this thing is ready to go. Because Lexin is a genius like you affirm.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, no, he's smarter than I am. I think like he's like the smartest

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

guy on earth and he's my buddy, pal, friend too.

[Jim Cramer]

I will tell you this. I think a firm's going straight shot $100. I love that last quarter. I think you're dead white once again.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Robert. How about the 86 GS that he cleaned up on?

[Jim Cramer]

Rober is.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Robert is. You know what he is?

[Jim Cramer]

He's money. Hey, how about we go to Annette in New Jersey?

[Caller Annette]

Annette, hi, how are you? Thank you for what you do for you and Jeff Marks do. And thank you for what you do in the investment club.

[Jim Cramer]

Jeff is great. Jeff is great.

[Caller Annette]

You are also. Thank you for everything.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Of course.

[Jim Cramer]

Jeff has got a place down there in Margate. What was that? I'm sorry?

[Caller Annette]

Jeff has a place in Margate.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, you're from Jersey, right? I mean, you know, we all stick together.

[Caller Annette]

Yep. I'm a few miles away from Margate.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Get out of town.

[Jim Cramer]

Are you in Vendor or are you in Long?

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Where are you?

[Jim Cramer]

Longport or Vendor?

[Caller Annette]

Ocean City.

[Jim Cramer]

Whoa, Ocean City. We couldn't get in there in the old days.

[Caller Annette]

Well, you had to get in in the old days. And you helped me out lately.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah, it's quite a feat if we try to get in the old days. Whoa. Hard to explain that one. Go ahead.

[Caller Annette]

Thank you so much for everything you do and today I'm just wondering about next era. I don't have it but I'm wondering what you think about nee at the

[Jim Cramer]

end of the I happen to like next very much. I would use this decline to about a 3% yield to jump in the next turn.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

And you know I have to say about you Annette and that from Ocean City you got horse sense.

[Jim Cramer]

I like that one. I listen to me. I think this could be one of those breaks in the stronger stocks that you got to take advantage of. And don't forget it's okay to get rid of some of the losers into the strength tonight as the market rounds out the first half of the year. Has the flood of new IPOs overwhelmed demand yet? I'm taking a look at where things in the geo space then the dollar's moving higher. But that doesn't necessarily spell good news for stocks, does it? I'm going off the charts. We look at the potential impacts and don't forget it may impact gold and oil, then moderna. It's the only non tech stock to crack the top 15 performers this year. So what does this biotech company have going for it? Right now I'm digging deeper.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

May I suggest you stay with Kramer Foreign.

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[Jim Cramer]

All year, I've been warning you about the risk of an overheated IPO market. Once we get too many deals, sooner or later, the new stock SPY overwhelms the demand and the bull market gets sent to the slaughterhouse. So now that we've turned the calendar to the third quarter, how serious is the IPO deluge? If we're talking the number of deals, we've had 82 IPOs this year, down 17% from the first six months of 2025.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Hey, we're cool.

[Jim Cramer]

But some of these deals this year have been enormous.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Like Space X.

[Jim Cramer]

According to the IPO experts at Renaissance Capital, total proceeds from this year's deal stand at nearly $115 billion. That's up 636% from the same period last year. To put that perspective, back when the IPO market was booming in 2021, we had total IPO proceeds of more than $142 billion. That was for the whole year. Holy cow. We've been inundated. Of course, more than half that space is Space X, though, which officially raised 75 billion that shattering IPO last month. Holy cow. Although when you include the cut for the underwriters, it's closer to 86 billion. But even without SpaceX, Renaissance Capital said the second quarter would have been the best quarter for IPO fundraising since 2021. Maybe that means it's the worst quarter for the rest of the market. Most of the IPOs have been holding up pretty well. The Renaissance IPO ETF tracks the performance of roughly 50 of the largest most liquid newly public stocks declined 42% on average in the second quarter, passing the major averages. At the same time, we've had plenty of cautionary tales from the IPO market. Take Cerebra Systems, please, which makes enormous semiconductors that are used to handle workloads. Now, this was the second largest deal of the year, was priced at 185. Listen, this stock opened for trading at 350. It surged at $386. And at its intraday high, well, let me just say it had doubled the price of the deal of where it came. Now, that was bad. Cerebras had fallen. 311 I warned you to stay away from this one. It seemed too hot when it got all the way up there. Now, since then, well, it's pretty historic. The stocks pulled back to $221. In fact, last week it briefly sank to the $160 level at 160 bottom in that group if the Cerebras reported just an okay quarter disappointing gross margins. Now it's been able to rebound from those lows. But the point stands. See, if you tried to get into the cerebral in the first day, it blew up in your face. Buying hot stocks right after they come public tends to be a recipe for disaster. We tell you that over and over and over again because we want to protect you from this nonsense. We saw a slower version of the same trajectory with Space X. Now I was worried the stock would spike to absurd levels right out of the gate. But it didn't happen. I'll tell you why. The underwriters did a great job of managing the deal. SpaceX came public 135. It opened at 150. It finished at 161. Just a little bit under that. But then it gradually charged up to 225 and changed a few days later as memesters tried to walk it up in the middle of the night. I used to get up and watch it happen. Bunch of chuckleheads thought they could manipulate higher $1 trillion stock.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

No.

[Jim Cramer]

Since then the stock's given back most of its gains and those gains were on very light volume. Regardless of how you feel about SpaceX the business or Elon Musk the visionary, this stock is now hostage to the mechanics of the market. Specifically the lockup on insider selling, those shares will unlock gradually starting around the time of SpaceX's first earnings report as the publicly traded company. If the stock reaches $175.50 by the time the earnings come out, which is up 30% from the offer price, well, that unlocks an additional tranche of stock. That's what I'm worried about. Hey, how about the other two mega IPOs waiting in the wings? Anthropic and OpenAI? At one point last month, there was some speculation Anthropic could actually come public by the end of the this month. But now we need to worry about government intervention in that business after the US government previously forced Anthropic to restrict access to its newest models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 on June 12. The company announced last night that the export controls on these models have been lifted.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

That's good news for the company.

[Jim Cramer]

Now we just need to worry about whether that two and a half week hiatus long snafu had made some sort of impact on Anthropics numbers. The company was on such a roll earlier this year and it may have already started turning a profit

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

even if

[Jim Cramer]

it didn't do that much damage to their sales and earnings. Government interference will always scare some investors away. And this is not just a problem for Anthropic. Last Friday we learned that US government is forcing OpenAI to limit the release of its latest model GPT 5.6. According to New York Times, OpenAI is now leaning towards delaying its IPO until next year. They looked at how the big stocks got hammered last month and figured this may not be the best time, especially with the large losses is to be said to be generated from the perspective of the broader stock market. I certainly hope OpenAI can wait until next year. That will give us enough time to adjust all the new stock supply from SpaceX and perhaps Anthropic. But man, it's pretty discouraging for the AI space. Keep in mind there are tons of enormous companies like Oracle, Core Wheat, AMD, Broadcom, Cerebres, whose estimates include major orders from OpenAI. Even though the company raised $122 billion earlier this year, the largest private fundraise in history, Wall street was hoping that the IPO would help them pay these bills. Don't forget last fall people were openly wondering whether Open Air would be able to pay for all the infrastructure commitments and we don't want to go back to that situation. There's too much on the line here. Now, by my belief, by the way, is it OpenAI doesn't come public this year and if it doesn't, a merger with Microsoft, which has a big stake in the company, could be possible. That's my view, my speculation. Putting it all together, the IPO market still looks pretty good and we haven't yet reached the tipping point where it's unsustainable, even as there have been few deals that came in way too high. But the bottom line, okay, we've still got Anthropic on the horizon. That's gigantic. And now I'm really torn over the Open Air possibly delaying its IPO because on the one hand they need the money. On the other hand, I don't know if the market can handle all this new stock. Definitely something we need to keep an eye on. Remember, a bull can be killed by excess supply and we don't want OpenAI playing matador. That money's back into the break.

[Mad Money Announcer]

Coming up, the dollar is beginning to tick higher. So could this shift the state of the market? Kramer's going off the charts to find out next.

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[Jim Cramer]

It doesn't get a lot of attention, but lately the US Dollar has been on a roll versus other currencies. Historically, Wall street tends to root against a strong dollar because it's bad for American exports. But right now, everybody's worried about inflation and when your currency is rising, imports get cheaper. Tonight I want to think through the implications of this incredible dollar rally, which is why we're going off the charts with the help of Carly Garner. She's that brilliant technician who's senior commodity strategist and broker at To Carly Trading, as well as being the author of the Carly Perspective newsletter. Carter points out that the dollar ain't what it used to be. There was a time when our currency had a huge impact on how much most other assets were valued around the globe because pretty much everything was priced in greenbacks. Now, that is no longer entirely the case. Garner blames American monetary monetary policy for distorting the currency markets. She thinks the Federal Reserve has been too eager to print money for the better part of 20 years, while treasury has been too willing to spend big on stimulus. But I think the other angle here is more important. Between sanctions on Russia and sanctions on Iran, our government has basically forced our enemies to buy key assets in their own currencies. When China buys Iranian oil, they're not paying in dollars as A result, Garner notices that the usual pattern where the dollar tends to move in the opposite direction from most commodities and risk assets it makes no longer holds true.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

She thinks that could change now that

[Jim Cramer]

we've got this new Fed chair. Kevin Marsh seems perfectly willing to remove liquidity without necessarily raising interest rates. But for the moment, the dollar has been bouncing off its lows and that hasn't had the impact you might expect. Now, I want you to take a look at this monthly chart of the dollar index, okay. Which measures the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies. From Garner's perspective, this paints a pretty good tame picture with the dollar putting back to pulling back to the low end of the 20 year trading range earlier this year. Once that level held, we saw a significant rebound and fixtures any guide. This is just the beginning. As you can see from this chart, when the dollar index has previously bounced off this key level, we've had some enormous, enormous rallies. We see it in 2020, 2014, 28, often following on the heels of big pullbacks. When Trump was sworn in the first time, that was followed by a 15%. Look at this 15% decline in the index means he was not right there when, when Trump was sworn in the second time.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

All right, it's.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, you know, you got to get in. The same thing happened that that took the dollar index to pretty low levels earlier this year. It's just that once we got here, the dollar repeated a pattern that we've seen many times before. It bounced at the same time. Garner points out that the dollar tends to rally as we get closer to the end of the year. I did not know that until we did this because that's when multinational corporations repatriate. They bring their cash home both for accounting purposes and to pay bonuses. Put it all together and she believes the dollar will continue to move higher. Remember, that's a headwind for most commodities and most stocks, particularly of course the companies that are international in their commerce. Now let's talk about the flip side of that. Oil and metals. And it's oil that of course I'm focused on. But she needs, you know, she's, listen, we got to focus on gold too. Garner has mentioned before that the run in oil reminder of the big energy spike in 2008, not long before the financial crisis. Lately the price of crude has come down hard thanks to diplomacy with Iran. That's partially restored the traffic through this trade of Hormuz. Take a look at this. This is a monthly chart of West Texas intermediate crude going into the War with Iran. Earlier this year, a lot of people insisted this would be the largest oil supply disruption in history. Remember that make it almost impossible to overcome, at least in the short term. I never bought into that argument. As you know. Sure enough, Saudi Arabia and the UAE build emergency pipelines to get around the Persian Gulf. A ton of new supply from Venezuela came online earlier than expected. Our own country started pumping even more. And of course our government temporarily lifted sanctions on Russia and Iran in order to get their plentiful supplies on oil in the market. And that's why it was not able to to exceed this. And oil quickly peaked. It's only come down harder once we get serious about negotiating with Iranians. At the same time, even though the negative correlation between oil and the dollar

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

isn't as strong as it used to

[Jim Cramer]

be, a rising dollar tends to represent a massive headwind for the oil market. In 2008, the dollar bottomed in March and started to make a run in August. Back then, that's when oil peaked, okay, at $150. A few months after the dollar found its footing, what came next was a

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

stunning decline straight to the low 30s.

[Jim Cramer]

God, I remember that. It was incredible. Garner points out that this year we've seen an almost identical identical reversal in the price of crude right after the dollar bottom in March.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

When you drill down on the daily

[Jim Cramer]

chart of oil, you can see it's a little confusing.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Bear with me.

[Jim Cramer]

The recent decline. In more detail, Garner points out that

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

the relative strength index down here, that's

[Jim Cramer]

an important momentum indicator, has now reached

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

oversold levels, meaning oils possibly come down too far too fast, leaving vulnerable as

[Jim Cramer]

a short coverage rallies. At the same time, some of the

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

leveraged oil ETFs like the USO, have

[Jim Cramer]

very substantial net short positions.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

In fact, for the uso, which is the one that's most commonly traded, the short interest stands at nearly 150%, meaning that the short sellers outnumber the share count. Garner thinks that's very dangerous. Look, if something happens in the Middle

[Jim Cramer]

east, if someone decides to torch the

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

oil market, either literally or metaphorically, then cruise going to get hit with the moon, mother of all short squeezes. Still, with West Texas crude In the high 60s, Garner thinks any oil rally is going to still cap at 80, maybe 85, unless the war with Iran really heats up again, in which case she wouldn't rule out 105. Now, if prices keep coming down, she sees a powerful floor of support at 57. If crude breaks down into the mid-50s, that could potentially lead to Much lower levels. And you know that's what I'm looking for. For finally, let's talk about precious metals. When charting the dollar against gold futures on weekly bar basis, you can see

[Jim Cramer]

that in 2022, Gold quietly put in

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

a bottom while the greenback reached a parabolic move. Go back here. Okay, parabolic. Almost four years later, Garner says we're seeing the inverse of that. While gold was making a blow off top earlier this year, the dollar seems to put in unceremonious bottom. Garden points out that when gold sells

[Jim Cramer]

off, it tends to sell off hard.

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Look at the daily charter. Gold's now down over fifteen hundred dollars from its highs. But the relative strength index. Here we go. Has reached oversold levels and even made a higher low.

[Jim Cramer]

That tells Garner we could be looking

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

for a relief rally to 4300 or maybe even a 4550. 4545 right here. This is key level. If we get a pullback to the dollar. So even if there's a bounce, he believes we're looking at a bear market in gold. Sell your gold. The 200 day moving average comes in again near 54545. This is also the line that Carter identifies. The insanity pivot price he called. I love that the insanity pivot price. When you have an unusually volatile market, that pivot line is very important. Above that line, price action tends to be behave bullishly. Below that line behaves bearishly. So I'm telling you, I'm with her. Sell the gold. Okay. And dollar is absolutely bottoming. And oil is a bear market rally. And if you get it, you got to sell. The charts is interpreted by Carly Garner suggested oil and gold might be due for a bit of a bounce. But as dog can use to strengthen, she thinks those gains will be short lived and not worth trying to get your hands on. Keep that in mind. I know a lot of people are thinking how can oil be so low? People it is going lower even if we have that short squeeze. I want to speak to Elijah in Idaho.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Elijah.

[Caller Elijah]

Hey Jim. Do you think now's a good time to open a position into Oracle?

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Absolutely not.

[Jim Cramer]

I mean I think it's got maybe

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

10 points of a short squeeze on the upside, but this stock has has 100 all over it. I've got to tell you, Oracle is

[Jim Cramer]

probably the stock that one of the

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

stocks I'm most worried about.

[Jim Cramer]

I think they got into this data

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

center building and it's not their strength and I can root for. I think Larry Ellison is a pretty smart guy. But I don't think it's working and I question the entire foray. Let's go to Scott, Minnesota.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

Scott hi Jim, longtime viewer club member.

[Caller Elijah]

Thank you for everything you do

[Caller Annette]

like

[Caller Elijah]

gold itself has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride the last six to nine months. Buy, sell or hold.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Okay.

[Jim Cramer]

In keeping with the piece that we're doing tonight about gold I see as much as I like Agnico and you know idea now Journey is a terrific CEO. I am not going to recommend gold. I still think it has a little further to fall and start. Eight points this stocks down 8 8.66% this year. It would inspire me if it isn't going to be down 15%. And remember I believe in gold but I think it's going lower. Why? Well, the charts interpreted by Carly Garner suggested as long as the dollar keeps strengthening any gains in gold and of course oil could be short lived. Much more mad money and traveling almost 150% this year. Could Moderna have more room to run? I know a lot of people talk about that side. I'm going to take a look at the company vaccine pipeline and I've identified a lot of winners in my time but that doesn't mean I nailed every call. I'm running through some stor some stocks that I wish I had taken a chance on and explaining how you can identify good positioning going forward. Why play woulda, shoulda, coulda and of course all your calls Rapid fire. Tonight's just a little lightning round so stay with. If you look at the market's best performers year to date, nearly all of them are either companies that sell hardware into the data center or companies that sell hardware to the hardware makers. But there's one solitary exception. The top 15 Moderna, the biotech company best known for its COVID vaccine. Right now, Modern is the 12th best performing stock in the SB 500 up 146% year to date. Now that is pretty impressive. Is one of the most talked talked about stocks in the entire market right now. I've mentioned this before, usually in the context of worries about RFK Jr's Health and Human Services department. A lot of people thought to be some sort of crackdown on vaccines but it never happened. And the most anti vax members of the FDA have stepped down this year. That doesn't explain how Moderna has been able to rally 146% in just six months. The truth is after spending years lost in the post Covid wilderness, this company's now got a lot going for I think the rally's for real. I think the company's for real now. For years it seemed like Moderna made a fortune during the pandemic. They never really did much with those immense profits, even as their COVID vaccine sales dried up. But in an analyst day last November, the company said it would return to revenue growth in 2026, with management emphasizing the plan to drill down on treatments for cancer and rare diseases. And now in January, they submitted a new drug application for the latest flu vaccine. After some initial regulatory confusion. It's like the FDA is going to approve this thing August 5th, at least by then now this will be the first flu vaccine using Moderna's MRNA technology that helped them end the COVID pandemic five years ago. In April, the company won approval in Europe for a combination flu and COVID vaccine. US approval still up in the air. But with the biggest vaccine skeptics out the fda, I think this could be on the table. Then on May 1, Modern reported a tremendous quarter 260% revenue growth, mostly driven by the strength of the international business. Finally as Friday the stock jumped more than 12% because we got very encouraging update about Moderna's cancer franchise. This is what I care about. By the way, before COVID hit in 2020, the prospect of personalized cancer vaccines was the main reason. I told you I thought the stock should be bought. That was Moderna story. Then the pandemic hit the cancer back burner. Management would still mention these cancer vaccines from time to time, but no one's really paying attention. That changed last Thursday when Moderna hosted a Science day event. CEO Stephane Ben Sell looked out. He laid out what I thought was a pretty darn exciting vision for the future. Ansell can really get you going. Talked about getting approval for the company's late stage pipeline products, scaling them up like the new flu vaccine or the combination Covid and flu vaccine that just got approved in Europe. Then he talked about emerging products. This is what got it going that they're currently studying still in clinical trials. Then he went over what what he called future modalities. Basically entirely new categories of medicine that can expand the reach of modern core of Moderna's core M and that small M then capital RNA technology. Moderna's oncology portfolio belongs to the sector group. These vaccines are currently in mid to late stage clinical trials and many of them are doing very well. The company has products in phase 3 or phase 2 trials for the treatment of melanoma, non small cell lung cancer and so renal cell cancer and bladder cancer and we're getting important results for some of these programs pretty soon. Moderna and its partner Merck about the best part you possibly get when it comes to cancer, expect to report phase three data on melanoma. They're studying Moderna's therapy in combination with Merck's Keytruda, biggest selling oncology drug of all time. As Bancelle wrote in a letter published for Modern Moderna Science Day, our oncology strategy is increasingly focused on intervening early in the cancer journey, not only treating advanced disease, but potentially reducing recurrence after surgery and one day helping prevent certain cancers before they develop. And quote he goes on to say, quote we are currently exploring opportunities across solid tumors, metastatic disease and hematology, hematological cancers. End quote for example, Moderna has has what it calls its T cell Engager modality that's an early stage treatment for multiple myeloma that's currently in phase one and phase two development. Still, early trial results so far though have been so encouraging as the company's now studying the same technology to help treat ovarian cancer. So it is no wonder the Modern stock has caught fire. Think about all these great things they're doing. For the first time in a long time, the company seems like it has something to get excited about in the not too distant future. But this is a big but. Let's not forget the Moderna still losing money. In fact, they don't expect to reach cash break even levels until 2028. Actual earnings per share likely won't turn positive until 2029, but the company is at last beginning to realize its true potential. Plus, while I found Moderna's cancer trials very impressive, these are basically just cancer treatments. They're not the personalized anti cancer vaccines that management's been talking about for years. That got me so excited about the stock. Now they're still working on those, but it's going to take a long time before the technology is ready to be commercialized. So let me give you the bottom line on this amazing story that wasn't amazing for a long time. Even though Modernist are early on its turnaround, it's hard not to be excited about what the company presented just last week. Moderna's got a plethora of thoughtful new products and a clear roadmap to profitability for the first time in such a long time. Honestly. Now look, I am a bit wary of chasing any stock that's up nearly 150%. But the truth is Moderna finally feels investable again. That said, I recommend Waiting for a pullback. There probably will be one before you buy. Take your time. I think Moderna's got a bright future though it'll take years to get there. Nobody's putting a gun in your head and forcing you to build a position immediately. But holy cow, for the first time in ages, I like having a position in Moderna. Stable Kramer.

[Mad Money Announcer]

Coming up, you've got questions. Kramer's got the answers. Get charged up for a fast fire lightning round.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Max.

[Caller Annette]

Next.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

It is time to talk about white

[Jim Cramer]

rounds to grab somebody. Your plan is that.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready, ski daddy? Time for the light round. Crazy. I'm going to start with Cade in Wyoming. Kuya.

[Jim Cramer]

Jim, how's it going?

[Guest Analyst Robert]

It's great to be back.

[Jim Cramer]

Going well, going well. My daughter's there.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Take care of her. She's right there. Next. In the same state. Same state.

[Jim Cramer]

What's going on?

[Caller Justin]

Love it. Great state. Well, Jim, I got a stock for you today. We've got power hungry AI data centers. We got the 10 of Tennessee Valley Authority. They're going global. A billion dollars in liquidity and they're not getting any love. Tell me about new scale power.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

It's too speculative for me.

[Jim Cramer]

I like GeV and I didn't tell the truth. My daughter lives in Montana, but she's

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

right on the border.

[Jim Cramer]

She's right on the border.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

GEV is safer.

[Jim Cramer]

GEV safer.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Let's go to Justin in Maine. Justin.

[Caller Justin]

Hey Jim. Thanks for taking my call.

[Jim Cramer]

Absolutely.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

We were praising Maine just earlier today. We were praising me, right?

[Jim Cramer]

Not praising me.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

All right then. Right back at you.

[Caller Justin]

Hey, I hope you had a great vacation. It looked like you caught some pretty big fish out there.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I caught the biggest rainbow trout ever. Not just. Not just in the state, not just in British Columbia, but ever. I mean I.

[Jim Cramer]

You only saw half of it.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Okay.

[Jim Cramer]

How can I help?

[Caller Justin]

That's incredible. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on the healthcare company Medline. It looks like it's had a pretty good run in the past seven days of around 19.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Doesn't matter. I like. Yes, yes. That is probably the best IPO of the year.

[Jim Cramer]

We're not done. Let's go to Bobo in North Dakota.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

Bobo?

[Caller Elijah]

Jimmy Chill.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Terrific. How about you?

[Guest Analyst Robert]

I probably.

[Jim Cramer]

Probably saw the President today. I don't blame you. What's going on?

[Caller Elijah]

Not too bad. Not too bad. If you don't already have any holdings in asts, what would you do for the long term?

[Jim Cramer]

Buddy, I think it's a great speculative stock. I really do. I think you turn positive. I think you can make money in two years. I would go for it. I really would. Especially because it's just taking that break and that.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[Mad Money Announcer]

The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, Kramer's reviewing some of the biggest winners he missed out on to learn how he can avoid missing the next batch.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

Next.

[Jim Cramer]

So last night I was having dinner at a great uptown restaurant. May came up to me to thank me for making him rich. As the wait staff watched warily, the patron said he was cheese salesman from out of town and he never expected to be wealthy. But he watched the show and he bought a ton of in video when I first started recommending it, oh so long ago. And he became extremely wealthy. He then took out a cell phone, showed me his portfolio. Sure enough, he made $13 million. On my Nvidia call, he said his life had been changed in a way he never could have imagined as a cheese seller. He had to thank me. I was thrilled he did. You know why? Because it cheered me up. And I got to tell you, I needed being cheered up.

[Guest Analyst Robert]

Why?

[Jim Cramer]

Because this is a what have you done for me lately?

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

Business.

[Jim Cramer]

And as much as I am proud of recommending in video, that stock did not make my charitable trust any money this past month.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

No.

[Jim Cramer]

I failed at my job and I am furious at myself. Sure, I was playing what Coulda shoulda. It's a deadly game that I should have licked years ago. I just can't kick the habit. What should I have recommended? Well, how about 10 stocks that were easily in my grasp that I owe to you to tell you why I got them wrong, Why I didn't say buy these stocks there turn out to be huge winners because I knew them well and I should have done done so versus Micron. The CEO Sanjay Marotra who was on the show last night. Oh, I could have caught Micron for you as I believe in the data center induced memory shortage. But I was caught up in the history of this group.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I was concerned that Micron could have

[Jim Cramer]

one of those cyclical downturns like it always seemed to have whenever the memory and storage makers ramp up their production. That was textbook wrong. Micron has become a secular growth story, not a cyclical story. The chip shortage is so severe because the the data center memory demand. This company's been able to lock in excellent pricing for multiple years to come. It had never happened before, so Micron was getable. And the same goes for Seagate, Sandisk, Western Digital, which are all in the same business. Let's do some serious, if not extreme, multi year self flagellation. As a hedge fund manager, I once owned 4.9% of Western Digital and then it blew up in my face because again, until very recently, this was a textbook boom and bust business. I knew the perils of owning it and I let that history color my judgment. Colored incorrectly. Oh, how about the semiconductor capital equipment makers? Did I ever know them? Well, I've been adamant. These companies own a huge amount of intellectual property. They're the answers to the production needs of the Microns, the seagates of the world. But did the trust buy Applied Materials? Did it pick up some Lamb research? Did it even scrutinize kla? All which were on the show?

[Financial Analyst/Commentator]

No.

[Jim Cramer]

I kept waiting and waiting for a break in their stocks. A break that never came. I whiffed. Oh, then there's two that I'm really embarrassed and even mortified to talk about. AMD and Dell. With amd, the trust had made a lot of money in this one and we took the big profit.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

But I said, don't worry about it,

[Jim Cramer]

I'll get right back in for another run. But the pullback never came. So I missed it. Dell. I put Dell in the trust bullpen saying it should be bought on any

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

dip, but it never dipped.

[Jim Cramer]

This stock just exploded higher without me. I miss one of the greatest stories ever told. And I am a four decade supporter of Michael Dell. What do all these missed winners have in common? I was too skeptical. I was too cherry, too wary. I failed to consider where they could go and instead focused on where they had come from. Finally, I let my fears of the market get in the way of some tremendous individual stock stories. Now I am so grateful for the cheesemonger who's now an Nvidia multimillionaire. Grateful that he said I did it for him. But I'm furious at myself for missing these stocks. You know what? I vow to do better this quarter. You know why? Because you deserve nothing less.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere.

[Jim Cramer]

I promise I'd find it just for you right here, man. Money.

[Jim Cramer (Alternate or Emphatic Voice)]

I'm Jim Cramer.

[Jim Cramer]

See you next time.

[Mad Money Disclaimer Narrator]

All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer.

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