Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/23/25

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (July 23, 2025)

Hosted by CNBC's Jim Cramer, the July 23, 2025 episode of "Mad Money" delves deep into the current state of the stock market, significant trade deals, earnings reports, speculative trading concerns, and featured stock analyses. The episode is structured into several key sections, each providing valuable insights for investors.

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Market Overview

Jim Cramer opens the episode by addressing the fluctuating nature of the current market. He observes a broadening market characterized by solid movements in both large-cap and small-cap stocks, fueled by hedge funds and social media activities.

“Sometimes you just can't pin a market down. You see things that are so solid, real companies doing real things and getting rewarded for them... It's speculative, but not so speculative that it's worth worrying too much about.” [01:26]

Despite the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring by 508 points, the S&P 500 gaining 78%, and Nasdaq advancing 0.61%, Cramer emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic stance, acknowledging the day's positive market performance.

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Trump-Japan Tariff Deal

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the recent tariff deal struck between President Trump and Japan, described by Cramer as "the largest trade deal ever, at least according to the president."

“Make no mistake, this was a terrific deal for both sides... there's now a 15% tariff on Japanese products, including cars. Win for the treasury...” [01:26]

Key points include:

• Tariff Imposition: A 15% tariff on Japanese goods, doubling was imminent without the deal.
• Japanese Investment: Japan pledges to invest $550 billion in the U.S., potentially setting a precedent for other international deals.
• Economic Implications: While beneficial in reducing tariff uncertainty, Cramer warns of potential wage inflation due to a tight labor market exacerbated by immigration policies and high demand from pledged investments.

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Earnings Season Highlights

Cramer provides an extensive review of the current earnings season, highlighting both strong performers and those underperforming expectations.

Strong Performers:

• Health Care & Life Sciences: Companies like Boston Scientific, Danaher, Thermo Fisher saw robust growth.
• Alphabet (Google): Exceeded sales and earnings estimates, particularly strong in cloud services and AI initiatives like Gemini, boasting 450 million monthly users.

“I even in search where there were concerns that Gemini, their AI bot, might be cannibalizing an incredibly valuable franchise. Gemini turns out, is 450 million monthly average users. That's fantastic.” [05:45]

Underperformers:

• IBM: Despite a solid top and bottom line, a weaker software segment led to a sharp decline in after-hours trading.
• Tesla: Reported misses on top and bottom lines; however, positive narratives around Robo Taxis and upcoming affordable models kept the stock resilient.

Mixed Results:

• Chipotle: Experienced a downturn.
• T-Mobile: Reported favorable results, balancing the mixed earnings landscape.

Cramer underscores the importance of focusing on overall market positivity despite individual stock variances.

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Speculative Trading Concerns

A segment of the episode is dedicated to addressing the speculative frenzy reminiscent of past market manias like those seen in 2008, 1999, and 2021.

• Kohl's Example: With 50% short interest and social media-driven stock volatility, Cramer expresses concern over hedge funds potentially being vulnerable to short squeezes.

“What could go wrong with that? Well, we have so many pledges, so many different energies to hire here, yet we don't have nearly enough people to take the jobs. That could be very inflationary.” [06:45]

• Regulatory Oversight: Cramer hints at the need for potential investigations into erratic stock behaviors driven by platforms like Reddit’s Wall Street Bets.

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Featured Stocks Analysis

G Vernova

One of the episode's highlights is the analysis of G Vernova, a powerhouse in the power and electrification sectors spun off from General Electric.

“G Vernova. One of the greatest quarters I've seen in a long time. They shot the lights out...” [13:40]

Key Insights:

• Impressive Growth: The stock surged over 14.5% in a single day, with a 45% gain since May.
• Revenue and Earnings: Posted 12% organic revenue growth and a 35-cent earnings beat.
• Market Positioning: Benefiting from the data center boom and increased demand for power grid infrastructure.
• Future Outlook: Raised full-year forecasts with expectations of continued strong performance despite high valuation multiples.

Cramer advises patience, suggesting that while G Vernova has room to grow, the stock may require a pullback before further investments.

Otis Worldwide

Another focal point is Otis Worldwide, facing a significant 12% stock decline despite a strong service revenue report.

Guest Judy Marks, Chair and CEO of Otis, provides clarity on the situation.

“Our story is a service story. 90% of our profits, second quarter service revenue was up 4%...” [34:48]

Key Points:

• Service Revenue: Up by 4%, indicating strong performance in maintenance and services.
• Geographical Performance: Challenges in China due to a sluggish property market, but growth in the Americas and other regions.
• Modernization Market: Significant growth opportunities in upgrading existing elevators and escalators, projecting a 10% revenue increase in modernization.
• Future Prospects: Emphasis on long-term structural growth despite short-term challenges in China.

Cramer remains optimistic about Otis’s long-term potential, highlighting the stable dividend yield and strategic growth initiatives.

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Caller Interactions

Throughout the episode, Cramer engages with several callers, providing personalized investment advice:

1. Peter from Florida (Uber)

   • Issue: Uncertainty about holding 500 shares of Uber after recent drops.
   • Advice: Cramer advises buying more, emphasizing the stock's potential.

   “Peter asked should he stay or should he sell? But you know what he should be doing? He should be buying.” [09:33]

2. Steve from California (Crispr Therapeutic CRSP)

   • Issue: Significant gains on Crispr stock without media attention.
   • Advice: Cramer acknowledges the stock’s speculative nature, suggesting a balance between potential tripling or stagnation.

   “Crispr could either triple or do nothing. That's not a bad ratio.” [10:21]

3. Dave from Connecticut (Intuitive Surgical)

   • Issue: Holding** Intuitive Surgical** stock amid mixed performance.
   • Advice: Cramer recommends maintaining a positive outlook due to ongoing business strengths.

   “The picture's mixed right now, but I don't want you to be cynical because there's too many things going right.” [12:07]

4. John from South Carolina (Real Estate REITs)

   • Issue: Choosing between dividend-focused real estate stocks versus growth.
   • Advice: Encourages growth-oriented investments over traditional dividend REITs like Realty Income.

   “I like growth. Growth is the only safety.” [32:32]

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Lightning Round

In the Lightning Round, Cramer offers rapid-fire buy, sell, or hold recommendations on various stocks:

• Pfizer: Advises holding with a wait-and-see approach on acquisition impacts.

  “Two more quarters and then we're going to fish or cut bait.” [42:24]

• CrowdStrike: Encourages holding and continuing investment for long-term gains.

  “You're in the best... Let the rest run. And I'll see you at $1,000.” [43:20]

• Marvin Ellison Stock: Recommends holding despite mixed signals.

  “Absolutely not. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.” [43:31]

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Parabolic Stock Movements

Cramer discusses the challenges and opportunities presented by parabolic stock movements, where stocks experience rapid and steep price increases.

“The theory behind selling the stocks that go parabolic is that nothing good can come from a stock that goes straight up. So you better cash out while they're running.” [44:08]

Key Takeaways:

• Historical Perspective: Traditionally, parabolic moves are unsustainable and risk significant losses.
• Current Market Adaptation: Cramer admits to deviating from his usual caution due to the unprecedented frequency and magnitude of such moves.
• Strategic Shifts: Introduces his forthcoming book, outlining methods to capitalize on these trends responsibly.
• Specific Stock Examples:
  • OCLO: Despite a steep rise, Cramer advocates for continued investment based on strong fundamentals.
  • Joby Aviation: Encourages holding for long-term gains amidst volatility.
  • Palantir, Applovin, Robinhood, Coinbase: Acknowledges their explosive growth but advises moderation.

Cramer concludes by emphasizing the necessity of adapting investment strategies to the evolving market landscape, advocating for selective speculations alongside traditional investments.

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Conclusion

Jim Cramer's July 23, 2025 episode of "Mad Money" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics, significant trade deals, earnings performances, and speculative trading risks. Through detailed stock analyses and interactive caller engagements, Cramer offers actionable insights tailored for both seasoned and novice investors. His candid discussion on adapting traditional investment principles to modern market behaviors underscores the episode's practical value.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• “Sometimes you just can't pin a market down... it's speculative, but not so speculative that it's worth worrying too much about.” [01:26]
• “Peter asked should he stay or should he sell? But you know what he should be doing? He should be buying.” [09:33]
• “I like growth. Growth is the only safety.” [32:32]
• “The theory behind selling the stocks that go parabolic is that nothing good can come from a stock that goes straight up. So you better cash out while they're running.” [44:08]

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This detailed summary encapsulates the critical discussions from Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" episode, offering valuable insights and strategies for investors navigating the complex stock market landscape.

Transcript

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[Jim Cramer]

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Craig America. Friends, I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain you. It's to put it in context. So call me 1 873, CNBC. Tweet me Jim Cramer. Sometimes you just can't pin a market down. You see things that are so solid, real companies doing real things and getting rewarded for them. Then you see other companies, small cap companies. They're being pushed higher by hedge funds and social media with stocks that have no business going higher. It's a broadening market, but not broad enough. It's speculative, but not so speculative that it's worth worrying too much about. That's how I feel on a day when The Dow jumped 508 points. S&P gained point 78%. Nasdaq advanced 0.61%. In short, it was a terrific outing for stocks, no matter how you feel. So let's play again. Let's talk about what's troubling in this market and what's not. Maybe that way you can figure out how to approach things because, boy, is it getting confusing. I want to start with the tariff deal the President Trump struck with the Japanese list as the largest trade deal ever, at least according to the president. Make no mistake, this was a terrific deal for both sides. There's now a 15% tariff on Japanese products, including cars. Win for the treasury, even as it raises the price of Japanese cars and trucks for you. But. But if there was no deal, it would have been almost double that. So the Japanese automakers saw their stock soar. Now look, I happen to like deals where you could take either side and still feel like you got to win. And this was one of them. I'm sure Japan would have preferred the pre Trump status quo, but this is much, much less extreme than anyone was expecting in April. I say great stuff. Bye, bye. Bye. At the same time though, if you're Fed chief Jay Powell, you're looking at the price of new cars and you have to be worried that inflation hasn't beat and it might not peak anytime soon. So what does that mean? No rate cuts. Bad stuff. Now, along with this deal is a pledge by the Japanese to invest $550 billion in the United States. Again, a very big deal because the Japanese are not really known for their buy of American merchandise. That money will go to all sorts of manufacturing, defense, semicolons, or to steel. It could be the template for other deals around the world, including Korea and most of all Europe. These kinds of deals are good news for the market because they remove the tariff uncertainty. And 50% is something most businesses can live with. What could go wrong with that? Well, we have so many pledges, so many different energies to hire here, yet we don't have nearly enough people to take the jobs. That could be very inflationary. And what happens with inflation? No rate cuts. All of these pledges will ensure that we won't have a dangerous uptick in unemployment. Although with a 4.1% unemployment rate, that's not something we need to worry about. Remember, as long as unemployment is low, that is good news for stocks. Right now, the only real source of layoffs I see is from artificial intelligence. But there are many areas where it's simply not yet good enough to replace real people. But again, when you have a tight labor market, that's likely to get tighter thanks to all these pledges. And you have a president whose hardline on immigration is then companies will have to pay up for workers. So what does that mean? We should worry about wage inflation? Different kind of inflation quickly spreads throughout the economy. We have to hope that there are plenty of robots ready to do the jobs that can't be filled. Or Chairman Powell, no rate cuts until he's done. What else? We're in the earnings season right now. We're in the thick of darn thing. And the stocks are reacting to very good numbers. Sometimes you have good numbers, they don't react. That's not the case this time. The banks set the tone with this good business. And now loan loss reserves are small again, something that happens when you have what we used to call full employment. Now we're scanning some health care and life sciences. They're all good, even if it's small. Sample Boston Scientific, Danaher, Thermo, Fisher all roared today. And then let's talk about Alphabet, parent of Google. That was the star of the after hours show, beating sales and earnings estimates and delivering strong numbers in the cloud. I even in search where there were concerns that Gemini, their AI bot, might be cannibalizing an incredibly valuable franchise. Gemini, turns out, is 450 million monthly average users. That's fantastic. One of the big reasons why the stock exploded during the conference call. Oh, on the other hand though, you got tech companies that aren't getting credit for solid numbers. IBM reported look like a nice top and bottom line beat it for the close. But because its software business came in a little light, the stock's getting clobbered in after hours trading. I'm not so sure how that right is, but it's happening. Tesla though reported top and bottom line miss yet the stock is holding up because Elon Musk told a very good story about Robo taxis as well as new cheaper models that they're supposed to come out later this year. It's a tech company now as the car business missed estimates and no one seemed to care. So I mean we have one hand on the other. I mean look, Chipotle wasn't so good tonight. T Mobile was good. I'm fine with that. You know why? Because the good does still outweigh the bad and that is very positive. At the same time though, we got to talk about something that is really starting to bug the heck out of me. Got talk about froth, froth that feels like the market for the Great recession hit in 2008 or the dot com period in 1999 or the spacing gamestop mania of 2021. Terrible role models. There are some hedge funds and followers of stocks on Reddit's Wall Street Bets forum that are set that are up to speculative things that make my stomach, well, let's say churn. I'm not talking about things like Oklahoma, the nuclear power play I've endorsed, which was this very positive in this morning's news. I'm talking about stocks like Kohl's, okay, 50% short interest that at one point doubled because of social media instigation just to bash the hapless shorts who are truly pressing their Bets here. Even with Kohl's, there's some merit. Kohl's used to trade in 50s three years ago and it received three takeover bids right in that level stock. The short busting started it was at 10 bucks, having trade as low as 6 bucks. That's too cheap. Downright embarrassing though, that so many hedge funds have been caught with their pants down. Again in a situation where there's too much short interest and not enough stock floating around to cover if something good happens. And something good could happen. Kohl's has no debt maturities for four years of any size. It has new leadership. It has a fabulous deal with Sephora. What happens if one of those acquirers comes back not a safe short? But away from Kohl's, we see things happening that if we had a tough sec, well, we would be against many one and two and three dollar stocks are getting bagged, being gunned and for all I know, being liquidated. BGL for a quick win. Yeah, I don't want to dignify them with men. I'm not even going to mention their names here, but I would say that many of these should be investigated. It just doesn't seem right. Against that we have gigantic themes that are so strong you can see how they might be moldier in nature. Take G. Vernova. We talk about that later. How taxed the workers on the grid are as they mastermind all the humongous orders for the data centers. All parts of the data centers are strong. We know that even from tonight with the numbers from Alphabet, which is putting in a lot more capex than anyone thought they would. But there are still people who are deeply suspicious of the data center buildout. They're calling it overbuilding and don't think the hyperscalers need all that computing power. Their skepticism extends any capital equipment stock and any financial services stock. Now, maybe they aren't necessarily off base. Fiserv, a fintech company, blew up today and was one nasty comedown. But you know what? People are going nuts for Alphabet today and that's going to spill over tomorrow. That stock's been a horse, the bottom line, it's mixed. Some good, some bad. You know what? When it gets all good, it will be too good. When it gets all bad, it will be too bad. Maybe right now it's just right. And we should be skeptical, but not cynical because there's too much money being made and I don't want you to leave the table. Peter in Florida. Peter, a heartfelt boyar, Mr. Grammer, longtime listener and Lifetime learner. That's fantastic. Thank you for continuously helping the average Hans in Franz to get a leg up in the game. My question is about Uber.

[Caller]

I.

[Jim Cramer]

Should I have 500 shares? Should I accumulate or should I. Hold on. I mean, it had a couple of days of drop. Isn't this interesting? Think about what you asked. This is the kind of thing that is fascinating to me now. Peter asked should he stay or should he sell? But you know what he should be doing? He should be buying. That's the kind of skepticism I like. Healthy skepticism. But the stock is worth buying right here. Let's go clear across the country to Steve in California. Steve.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. How you doing?

[Jim Cramer]

Great day. How about you, partner?

[Caller]

Good, thank you. I'm an investment professional, and every day on my ride to the pool hall after work, I listen to the show.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you.

[Caller]

I love the show.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you.

[Caller]

I woke up to one of my largest positions being up 16%, $10 a share last Friday with barely a mention in the news. It's Cris Crispr Therapeutic crsp.

[Jim Cramer]

Yeah. You see, here's the deal. There are so many stocks that are going up, people don't even, like, think. It's like, oh, man, I forgot about crispr. Why haven't. I think Crispr is a terrific, terrific but speculative situation. And I think you should be able to speculate. I think Crispr. Look, Crispr could either triple or do nothing. That's not a bad ratio. Let's go to Dave in Connecticut. Dave.

[Caller]

Booyah, Jim. Thanks for Michael.

[Jim Cramer]

Of course.

[Caller]

So I've been, I guess, called various times over the last 20 years. In fact, we met two months ago in Norwalk, Connecticut, at the Phosphorus signing. Even signing.

[Jim Cramer]

Hey, that was fun, wasn't it? That was fun. We were up there at Total Wine and More. You know, that was a nice crowd up there. It was a really nice crowd. Thank you for coming. I really appreciate it.

[Caller]

It was a really nice, nice afternoon, so. And, in fact, I'm also a founding club member, and it's been fantastic having access to all that info.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you. Hey, I met this club member who went to the doctor today. I mean, club member is like. We both, you know, we just kind of chatted about some of the things that we've done. Right. He had some ideas, too. It is a club. I can't believe it. It really is a club. It is. We talk. You come in. You come to the liquor signing. My wife. My wife bagged me on that one. She has some other stuff to do. That's all right. What's happening?

[Caller]

Well, I, I just also wanted to thank all of your staff. They're fantastic. And also, you know, in particular the recap of those morning meetings which I also love, you know, like Natasha and others that, I mean, some heroes here that help us out so much.

[Jim Cramer]

Man, I'm telling you, we are hustling for club members. We really are. How can I help you right now, Dave?

[Caller]

Sure, sure. So I've been over times, I guess since the beginning of the year, I've been slowly making small purchases of intuitive surgical.

[Jim Cramer]

Right.

[Caller]

And you know, on weakness. And last night they reported a pretty strong quarter and they seem to be rolling out the Da Vinci 5 pretty well. And yet they still seem to be in the doghouse. And I know they manufacture in the USA and in Mexico, so I wonder, I was kind of wa to see if it might even benefit.

[Jim Cramer]

You and I are in the exact same place. They were talking about second quarter placement not being that good. I didn't see it that way, Dave. I think they've got a lot in the pipe. I'm inclined to recommend the stock. I don't see what the bears were squawking about. And I want to thank you for meeting me up there at the Fosforo signing. And you're a terrific guy to be a club member. All right. The picture's mixed right now, but I don't want you to be cynical because there's too many things going right. Be skeptical, don't be cynical and don't leave the table. Look at club stock G Vernova go soaring more than 14% today. I'm running through the powerhouse of a company breaking down the numbers that so green has been a frustrating stock getting clobbered after earnings. Stock investable 5% yield. Give you my take. And Otis is going down after earnings. I'm getting a read on the elevator business, which was not up and down, just down and seeing what clues it can give us on the state of construction, particularly with China and with the CEO. So I want you to stay with Kramer.

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[Jim Cramer]

When you look at this incredible run in GE Vernova, the power business that was spun off by the old General Electric last spring. The quarter was so good that this thing's trading like it caught a takeover bid up 14.5% today, which is a crazy move for a large capitalization stock. More importantly, G Ver Nova's monster rally makes me look like a genius. Well, you know, little hubris there, but because it's a holding in my Chapel trust, which you can follow of course, by joining the CBC Investing club. We bought it back in May and so far we got a 45% gain. My only real gratis we didn't buy more, but you know me, I like to build my positions gradually over time. But this stock's going up practically in a straight line, so we never got the chance to buy more into weakness. Still, it's been an amazing winner. The fact that it can work today after already being up 91% for the year and more than 280% since it began trading independently 15 months ago, that tells you just how stunning these results really were. Coming to earnings, Renova was already trading at 80 times this year's earnings estimates. Very expensive. That means expectations were sky high, yet they still knocked it out of the park. Highly unusual to see a big game when you have such a high price during small Before I get in the results, remember why this thing's been running for years under the old General Electric, the power business was just awful because these guys primarily make turbines, which is to R B I N E s some people call turbines, they pronounce it turbines. And there simply wasn't that much demand for new power plants. So not a lot of demand for new turbines. Then came the rise of the data center, especially for artificial intelligence. Suddenly American electricity demand is going by 5% per year. It's been flat for years now. 5%. And all sorts of companies are desperate for power, which is why when they need Vernova's hardware at the same time, I repeatedly pointed out that Vernova stands to be a big winner from President Trump's trade negotiations. Because if our trading partners want to extend an olive branch, the easiest way to do that is by placing orders for big ticket items like planes from Boeing or turbines from Vernova. They're both about 50 mil a throw. So maybe we shouldn't be surprised that this company reported Fabulous Beat Race quarter this morning. And make no mistake, these were phenomenal numbers. Vernova put up 12% organic revenue growth. Wall street only looking for 10.6 their orders, which are the real key metric here because they're the best gauge of how business is doing right now. Grew by 4% on an organic basis, driven by strong demand for power and electrification solutions. Now the power business is about generating electricity. The electrification business is about transmitting electricity. Need you to know both. Again, those are both parts of the data center boom. In the end, Vernova posted an enormous 35 cent earnings beat off a $51 basis fueled by higher than expected margins. Now this was an incredible showing even with the stock having already more than doubled from its post liberation day lows in April. As CEO Scott Strazik explained on the conference call, quote, this era of accelerated electrification is driving unprecedented investment in reliable power grid infrastructure and decarbonization solutions, end quote, unquote. All of those are vinovs bread and butter. I spoke to him earlier this morning and I got to tell you, I was like, I cannot believe they are everywhere in the electrification chain. In fact, the company's electrification equipment backlog grew by 2 billion in the quarter with strength pretty much everywhere. We're talking Europe, North America, Asia. Demand is also accelerating the Middle east with management highlighting a big deal with Saudi Arabia for Saudi Arabia for grid stabilization equipment that could be worth $1.5 billion in order volume during the current quarter. On the call, strategic mention that some technologies like synchronous condensers which are needed to increase power grid stability, have, quote, been a small market over the last decade. But we see this as a credible $5 billion market opportunity a year going forward and are investing in positioning our businesses to serve this opportunity. And basically the big uptick in electricity demand means we need all sorts of equipment both to produce more electricity and to keep the power grid from falling apart under the metaphorical weight of that additional power. As for data center electrification demand management called out nearly 500 million in orders for the first half of 2025, compared to 600 billion for the entire direty of 2024. I mean, it just keeps ramping. How about the backlog which represents potential future revenues as orders are fulfilled? Okay, Renova's combined equipment and services backlog expanded to nearly $129 billion. That's up 5.2 billion for the previous quarter, up more than 11% year over year, again, again driven by power and electrification. The only flying the ointment is their declining wind backlog. But that's more than offset by the strength in power and electrification going segment by segment. Power business was driven by demand for high efficiency gas powered turbines. They had 44% organic growth with gas power equipment orders nearly tripling and their power EBITDA margins expanded by 260 basis points thanks to strong pricing, better productivity and higher volumes in gas power and steam power. Basically businesses booming here. Now the electrification business actually saw orders fall 31% organically, but that's only because they were up against some really, really tough comparisons. At the same time, the electrification EBITDA margin expanded by a stunning 740 basis points year over year. It's only the wind division that was disappointed. But compared to power electricity, when it's not that important. I asked Scott about it. He didn't say forget about it. He said focus on where the business is. Even better. Management raised their full year forecast pretty sniffly for they were calling for revenue of 36 to 37 billion. Now they'll say it'll come in at the higher end of the range. They've been targeting earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization margin in the high single digits. Now we'll say it'll be eight to nine. That's about as high as you can get. Still be a single digits. But the big one is the free cash flow flow guidance. Renault was forecasting 2 to $2.5 billion. Now they say it'll be 3 to $3.5 billion. Going segment by segment, management projects the power division will have 6 to 7% organic growth. Previously they've been saying single digits, mid single digits. They also raised the EBITDA margin forecast for the power business. The wind division, like I mentioned earlier, is bad shape, but fortunately that's the smallest part of the business. Finally, there's the electrification division where for nova sleep we're 20% organic revenue growth when before they were only talking about organic growth in the high to mid teens. Plus they expect their electrification business to have an EBITDA margin of 13 to 15%. Previous was going to be 11 to 13. So I want you to put it all together and I can tell you I'm still a big believer in this one. But given how much is run, including today's 14.5% gain, it's hard for me to tell you to buy more at these levels. I am reluctant to do so for my trust as members of the CMC investing club know so well. Here's the bottom line. G Renova. One of the greatest quarters I've seen in a long time. They shot the lights out and as we told the club, we think the Stock's headed to 700. But I feel like you're chasing if you buy it here, be. Be a little patient, you know. Here's a good example. I bet you're going to get a buying opportunity like we have a Dr. Horton up nearly 17% yesterday. Good analog, right. Tay is down 3.5%. I expect a similar pullback for this one, maybe even more since it's rallied so much. So when it comes to Brnova, keep your bat on the shoulder right now. And I want you to wait for a better pitch if you don't already own some may have money Specific.

[Dell Ad]

Coming up Are the commercial real estate reits in for a rate reckoning? Kramer's taking a look at real estate giant SL Green and how interest rates could affect the sector.

[Jim Cramer]

Next.

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[Jim Cramer]

What the heck just happened to the stock of SL Green Realty, the largest commercial real estate landlord in Manhattan, with interest in 53 New York City office buildings totaling over 30 million square feet? Now, this stock has been frustrating, basically flat over the past 12 months, and it only got worse last week when we reported a seemingly strong quarter. And yet its share price got clobbered anyway. When we get to this quarter though, let's set the scene. Last year, the office reads, they were on fire. This one yearly got back to the 2021 highs last November, but then it plunged from $82 and change at its peak down to just over $45 at its post Liberation Day lows in April. Well, as a green rebounded to over $60 as of today, it's still down 27% from its November highs and down nearly 6% from where it was trading a week ago. What went wrong here? I look, this is an office real estate play and anything real estate right now is hostage to interest rates. As a Green soared to an almost three year high last November, not long after the Fed started cutting rates. But the moment the Fed cut short rates, longer term interest rates soared. And once the Fed paused its rate cuts last December, so green in the rest of the office saw their stocks fall apart. After all, high rates make financing more expensive for these guys. And they also make SL Green's 5.1% yield look a little less enticing by comparison. Of course, last month's Merrill Prior primary didn't help here either, did it? Remember, this is the largest commercial landlord in Manhattan. And last month an avowed socialist, Zoria Mamdani, won the Democratic primary in the New York City mayoral race. That gives him good odds of becoming mayor even in this crazy four way race. And hey, a lot of investors figured that a socialist, even a democratic socialist might be bad for business. I mean strictly they don't really make the best relationship that they don't get along with landlords. That's why. So green stock fell 5.7% the next day. I don't want to dive too much into local politics. You don't want me to either. Especially because I don't think the mayor has the power to single handedly crush the commercial real estate market. Let's just say you got to keep an eye on it. Still, if you were hoping I saw Green come back a comeback after reported last Wednesday after the close those hopes were quickly dashed when those headline numbers crossed the wire. The quarter at first it looked really good as a Green seemed like it delivered a big beat is substantially higher than expected. Revenue up almost 9% year over year with funds from operations per share. That's the real estate investment trust equivalent of earnings coming in at a dollar 63. Wall street was only looking for a buck 38. And that's flowed that beat through its to its guidance raising its full year funds from operations forecast by $0.40 from its previous outlook. Also much better than what the analysts were expecting. Yet it didn't help. Stock fell about 4% last Thursday, another 1.8% on Friday for stabilizing this week. So what on earth went wrong here? Simple. The quarter really wasn't as strong as it looked. CMIT $130 million investment in a mortgage for a Fifth Avenue property last fall and they were able to sell it in the second quarter for $90 million profit. That worked out to roughly 60 cent benefit which was offset by a smaller loss on the sale of their stake in a Madison Avenue building that worked out to be about 20 cent hit. Together those transactions resulted in a 40 cent benefit that was included in the funds from operations result. Remember, that's exactly how much they raised the full year forecast by. In fact, when you back out the 40 cent benefit, the quarter itself would have been a sizable miss. All right, there were some other things analysts quibbled with, including some mixed operating metrics, but the dismissal of the one time benefit is the main reason why so Green got no credit for its big beat last week. So let's I want to take this point head on. Let me say two things. First, I don't think it makes sense to write off that savvy trade so we made with this fifth Avenue investment. That's part of the business, isn't it? So queen knowledge of the Manhattan real estate market and its ability to make smart bets on properties in its focus areas. It's a real positive, frankly. Look, in a way it's what you buy the stock for. But second, even if you incline to dismiss that one time item, I'm not too torn up about the fact that the second quarter would have been a disappointment without it. As CFO Matt deliberate though reminded us on the conference call, this is a lumpy business which is why they try to track things on an annual basis rather than going quarter to quarter if you back out to 40 cents, their full year fund from operations forecast was simply be unchanged. At the same time there was a lot to like from SL Green's quarter if you were willing to dig deeper. Leasing activity remains very strong. 46 Manhattan offices leases totaling over 540,000 square feet signed by the court in the quarter bringing the company's year to date total to over 1.1 million square feet. Do you know that that puts the company ahead of its target of 2 million square feet leased this year? Imagine also said that they quote reef refilled the pipeline to over 1 million square feet for near term execution. End quote. We also got some good color on the pipeline during the conference call with management, highlighting the diversity of potential tenants in the pipeline across various industries as well as the fact that they're doing a lot of mid sized deals. That's positive because it means that so Green isn't on the knife's edge with one or two major deals whose success or failure will make or break the company. This steady deal flows much more attractive to me. Plus the company seems like they're finding it easier to lease properties at Least based on the amount of free rent that it needs to give out when it signs new. Was this a very telling metric. And it fell to 6.3 months in the quarter. That's down from an average of 11.3 months over the past year. It's the lowest level in five quarters. At the end of the second quarter sleeves same store office occupancy was 91.4%. Companies said it expects that number to get to 30 to 93.2% by year's end. So all seems well with Nessel Greens core business. Finally. I like long term opportunities. I'm not necessarily talking about the company's current effort to bring a casino to to Times Square. So the management voted a decent amount of time on conference call. We don't know if they'll really win that business. I'm just talking structural factors here like the fact that there's minimal new supply of office buildings in New York these days and that's what dominates in class A office properties, which remains the strongest part of the market. So here's the bottom line. In the short term, Essel Green stock will remain hostage to factors outside of the company's control like the direction of interest rates. But after this quarter I really believe that the core business is in good shape. The 5.1% dividend yield is safe and the stock could be a winner once the Fed starts cutting rates again. John in South Carolina. John. Booyah, Jim. Booyah. John. What's up? Calling about REIT stocks.

[Caller]

Thinking about real estate with the supply.

[Jim Cramer]

Constraints and you know, looking at smaller.

[Caller]

More nimble groups like Net street versus.

[Jim Cramer]

The big guys like Realty Income. So which one you want me to open for a 20, you know, 6.

[Caller]

Year old investor with a long horizon. Just curious what your thoughts are on a more dividend focused real estate play versus growth.

[Jim Cramer]

John, I got to tell you, I'm going to have to say no to Realty Income. That doesn't mean I don't like it. I like it a lot. You got to go for growth. Growth is the only safety. You should be looking for a nice return. I mean I'm talking about, I'm talking about stocks like, like in video. You should be in Nvidia even right here. I really think that Realty income is for people who are a little bit older. What can I say? Hey, it's good to be young. Nothing out of that. Let's go to Johnny in Alabama. Johnny.

[Caller]

Hey Jim. Love the show.

[Jim Cramer]

Thank you. Thank you Johnny.

[Caller]

MP material. What do you think the long term prospect of the stock is considering the highly unusual government deal gets half of everything above 170 million.

[Jim Cramer]

EBITDA show they've got tons of EBITDA. No, look, I mean the stock is. Stock has moved to 61 now. I have done more work on it and I really think that I was a little, you know, I wasn't negative. But I think there's even more upside and I think you're onto something really big. Okay, look, it will be hard for so green to go higher if interest rates stay elevated. That's what matters. But I think the core business people are way too negative about it. Long term outlook for the company still seems excellent. Now much more mad money ahead, including my exclusive with elevator maker Otis. Now that stock plummeted over 12% today. What the heck's going on? I'm going to get to the bottom with the CEO. Man. I learned early on in my career not to mess with parabolas, but I have a new thesis and I think it's going to surprise you. And of course Oiler calls rapid fire. Tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with Creamer. Wow. What are we supposed to make of this 12% sell off in the stock of Otis Worldwide, the leading maker of elevators and escalators with a huge maintenance business. This morning let us report a soft quarter with sales coming in a bit light. Management cut their full year revenue forecast blaming weakness in China and continued uncertainty over over global trade policies in the United States is brutal. But then again, this company's been a steady operator for a long time. So could today's decline be a buying opportunity and will the company be in there buying with you? Let's take a closer look with Judy Marks. She's the chair, president and CEO of Otis Worldwide. Find out this box. Welcome back to Bad Money.

[Judy Marks]

Hi Jim. Thanks for having me on.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so first we want to get one thing straight for our viewers. It really does seem like that the problems are in China and that the other parts of the world are still going strong for you.

[Judy Marks]

Yeah, listen, you know Jim, our story is a service story. 90% of our profits, second quarter service revenue was up 4%. Really pleased with how we perform there. Our portfolio is up 4% again. And even on the equipment side, the new equipment side, you look at orders ex China, we were up 11% with the Americas. US is up 15%. Asia PAC's doing fine and the Middle east and parts of Europe are doing well. We have not gotten over the property market impacts in China and it's impacted our our new equipment business there in terms of revenue. But with our guide and with our outlook, you know, we held, we held our EPS. We're still going to raise margins 30%. We're still going to generate between 2.4 and 2.5 billion of adjusted operating profit and, and position ourselves for a much stronger 2020.

[Jim Cramer]

And you've been buying stock. Is this an opportunity given the fact that I know your 6 views which are appreciably stronger than you feel for current?

[Judy Marks]

Yeah. So we've bought 550 million of the 800 million we outlooked for this year. We're going to generate now because we do get advances with new equipment and with the China new equipment business being down, we've down, we've, we've changed our outlook on free cash flow down to 1.4 to 1.5 billion. It's still over a 1.0 cash conversion. So we're still going to share that with our shareholders between share buybacks, dividends and, and some, some again continuing M and A.

[Jim Cramer]

Okay, so before we get to China, I do want to ask one thing. You talked about the One America Tower in Indianapolis and you seem to indicate that buildings that are from the 1980s do need to be modernized. And there are a lot of buildings from the 1980s that have been modernized. So. So is that market a little bit bigger than we think?

[Judy Marks]

Yeah, the modernization or refurbishment market of existing buildings, it will be the fastest growing market we have in our business. 8 million of the 22 million elevators and escalators in the world today are over 20 years old and are in need of technology, refreshments, safety refreshments and some total swap outs with, with new equipment in existing buildings. That business this quarter for us in orders grew 22%. We've got a 16% backlog in modernization that's going to keep growing for us. And our outlook says, which we fully believe even for this year we're going to be up 10% in terms of revenue and modernization that will grow in 26 and in years after as well.

[Jim Cramer]

Let's talk about China. There are a lot of people have mixed views of China but I think that you're the one of the few people actually has a clear view. If your business is weak in China, then China is weak. Give us a sense of what's going on. Now you go to China very often what's happened because they would tell you that business, that business is good in China. The government does not put out really negative figures.

[Judy Marks]

Listen, I think manufacturing is doing fine in China. But when it comes to consumer sentiment, and in our case people buying real estate, that sentiment has been down now for four straight years. The property market is down 40% in terms of people buying new, new residential units. In terms of new office buildings, there's still building going on, but it's down 40% from the peak. That's what's impacting our new equipment business, especially what we call kind of our book and ship business, which in about a six month period we can turn an order into delivery and installation and make a live elevator. You're right, Jim, I do go to China quite a bit. I'll be there again very shortly again to meet with government officials, to meet with our customers and to meet with our colleagues to make sure that we not only understand where the market's heading on new equipment, but we also accelerate our service business which is growing double digits. Our portfolio there now for 15 straight quarters customers. So China to us looks more like becoming more of a mature market than an emerging market. Between service and then modernization there is going to grow double digit as well.

[Jim Cramer]

So what do you do? You meet with your board, You've got a great board. Do you say, look, you can asterisk China or you just have to accept the fact, look, China's part of our mix and we can't asterisk it. It's what? It's just the way it is.

[Judy Marks]

It is part of our mix. It was about 12% of our revenue this quarter, down from 20% a little over a year ago. But it's an important part of our business. That service business is going to be a key contributor to our future. And We've got about 17,000 colleagues in China. So we're moving to more mature but we're not resting. There's no asterisk, Jim. Our board understands this, but we are driving cost out and we've come up with a, basically a transformation program, a restructuring in China that we started in January, recognizing the volumes are down. Instead of that being a 30 million run rate savings for us, we just, just today announced it's going to be 40 million because we want to get to that price cost place where even though it's competitive in China and the volumes are smaller, we're going to make contributions in China and our team is working that every day.

[Jim Cramer]

One last question. I know it's anecdotal, but look, I live in New York, I look at every single barrel. I don't see a lot of cool cranes. I mean if I went to most cities in America, would I not see a lot of cranes.

[Judy Marks]

Well, New York, New York's actually growing in the boroughs and growing nicely, especially residential. The offices are full in Manhattan and we're playing a big role, not just in the new offices, but the modernization of New York and all the boroughs. When you leave New York City, when you leave, you know, the major metros, what we're finding is there's huge growth in that next level city. Whether it's in Nashville, whether it's in Indianapolis, whether it's a Chicago even, there is still growth going on in that next tier city in the United States. It's going on in terms of new equipment and it's going on in terms of modernization. And then again our service portfolio, you know, 65% of our revenue, 90% of our profits just goes along strong.

[Jim Cramer]

Well, I think that your stock has been overly punished given the fact that you did not not get negative for next year. Would be different if you were saying, listen, this could be multi year. You're not saying that. I want to thank Judy Marks is the chair presco of Otis Worldwide. Otis. Judy, thanks for coming on the show.

[Judy Marks]

Thanks so much, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Bad money back in.

[Dell Ad]

Coming up, Kramer takes your calls. And the sky's the limit. It's a fast fire lightning round next.

[Jim Cramer]

It is time. It's time for the lightning round Cruise riders, of course. He's having this knock said bye bye bye of the course knock questions out. My 10 person play this out and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready, Ski dad, it's time for the lightning round Christmas radio show with Andrew in New York. Andrew.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim. So I took a position in this company in 2005 and since that time I reinvested every single dividend. But I'm sad to say that after 20 years my cost basis is higher than what the position is currently worth. Should I continue to hold or should I finally throw in the towel and sell? I'm talking about Pfizer.

[Jim Cramer]

I can't ask you to do that because we are still on the verge of finding out what the CGEN acquisition does. Let's give Dr. Boyle two more quarters. Two more quarters and then we're going to fish or cut bait. Okay? Not yet. Two more quarters. Let's go to Smitty in North Carolina. Smitty. Jimmy, chill. Thanks very much for everything you do for the little man. Thank you, partner. What's shaking, Jimmy? I am up about 200% on CrowdStrike and I am contemplating selling it and getting into a cybersecurity etf. So I can have a piece of a lot of these? No, you got. Look, you have the best, okay? You're in the best. Other than Palo Alto. Why sheer the best to get in one that has a lot of mediocre ones. Here's what you're going to do. You're going to take out your cost basis and then you're going to let the rest run. And I'll see you at $1,000. Let's go to Scott in Europe, please. Scott.

[Caller]

Hey, Jim.

[Jim Cramer]

Booyah. Booyah. What's up?

[Caller]

I bought at 224. It dipped and it went to 228 now. And it's got a price target of 300 lows.

[Jim Cramer]

Do you buy, hold or sell? Marvin Ellison is hitting the ball. He's doing his best. He got. The Fed chairman won't cut the rates. We don't have a lot of housing turnover. You think I'm going to quit Marvin Ellison now? Absolutely not. And that, ladies and gentlemen, conclusion of the Lightning Round.

[Dell Ad]

The Lightning Round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up is fear of the parabola overblown in this market. Kramer's laying out why old school fears may be a thing of the past. And how your portfolio could benefit from some speculative names.

[Jim Cramer]

Next. Do not mess with parabolas. They're hazardous to your wealth. Look, that's something I Learned in the mid-1980s when I got started. It's never steered me wrong until now. This market defies that wisdom. At least so far in 2025, it taunts you with these straight up moves. Make sport of you whenever you miss them. That's why we need to talk about the parabolic move. The theory behind selling the stocks that go parabolic is that nothing good can come from a stock that goes straight up. So you better cash out while they're running. Until this market, I found it very hard to recommend anything that might be levitating like that. Because historically, parabolic moves tend to explode in your face. But you know what? I violated my rule for this market simply because the moves are too big and the opportunity is too frequent to pass on all of them. I don't want you to miss Mickey's big money because of a view that might no longer be relevant. Let's take some stocks. Take oclo, okay? You might have seen them on TV today. Here's a company that I'm asked about every couple of weeks. One that's working on new nuclear technology. I felt that. The stock's parabolic run from $21 to $31 was just too steep for me, even as I'm a huge believer in nuclear. Finally, I switched my view and told people to buy it regardless of the parabola because it's just so much going for it. Today, OCLO announced an integrated power solution for data centers. Might be worth billions to shareholders. It's a turnkey solution no one else has. The stock has now doubled since I waived my parabola ban. Doubled. Same with Joby Aviation, known to some as the flying car company. I was hesitant to say anything positive about this one going straight up for six to eight bucks. But then I read that Boeing had a flying car to one with a vertical takeoff feature. And I believe that Joby's ahead of Boeing. So I recommended on a small pullback next. You know the stocks at 17 and change more than a double. Again, the parabola fear. Wrong. We talked about G for Nova earlier in the show, right? The more I learned about this company, the more I wanted to buy from my chapel trust. But the stock never came in. I mean never. So finally, instead of giving up on it, I just broke my rule and bought some shares in the darn thing. Stock's been a huge win ever, even after it went parabolic. These moves aren't supposed to be sustainable, but then again, these guys make power plant equipment in a world that starved for electricity. Now you know that acronym that came up with park, prc, Palantir, Applovin, Robinhood and Coinbase? That's been spot on. Even as I'm not encouraging anyone to buy any of them. I'm simply putting out that they're straight up stocks. Especially Palantir, which had a bad outing yesterday but was right back today flying $5.50 to about a point below its high. Once again, these parabolic moves feel justified because all four have explosive earnings streams. In that sense, it's a heck of a lot easier to justify buying PARC than so many of the other stocks like Anjobi or an oclo. What is the solution to this? Look in my forthcoming book how to Make Money in Any Market, I have banished my anti parabola bias. I have a method, I reveal of picking five stocks to go alongside an index fund with some money added each month. I stated point blank that if you're in your 30s or older, you should own one speculative situation like an oclock or a joby. Just one. It could fail you after going parabolic. Moreover, if you're under 30, you can pick two speculative names out of five because you've got enough time to make back any potential losses. Now, you may think I'm reckless for endorsing any of these, even with caveats, but it's time to admit that for many years now, speculative stocks with great growth they've worked on. Let's not forget they don't have to stay speculative in video Stock has had many parabolic moves, including the one that started in April, to keep yourself out of these runs because of a principle that stopped working ages ago. That's to be blind to change, and I don't like it. I don't want to be that way. I will always fear parabolas in my book. In my heart of hearts I will fear. But in the end, I have to be an advocate for buying stocks that have moved a lot. The great ones have gone parabolic many a time. From now on, I refuse to be a hobgoblin of little minds. I'd like to say, as always, Bill Marcus Sommer at Problems Fi just for you, right here on Mad Money. I'm Jim Cramer. I'll see you tomorrow.

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All opinions expressed by Jim Cramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of cnbc, NBC Universal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Cramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com madmoneydisclaimer trading@schwab is now.

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