Transcript
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Jim Cramer (1:26)
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Craig America. Friends, I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain you. It's to put it in context. So call me 1 873, CNBC. Tweet me Jim Cramer. Sometimes you just can't pin a market down. You see things that are so solid, real companies doing real things and getting rewarded for them. Then you see other companies, small cap companies. They're being pushed higher by hedge funds and social media with stocks that have no business going higher. It's a broadening market, but not broad enough. It's speculative, but not so speculative that it's worth worrying too much about. That's how I feel on a day when The Dow jumped 508 points. S&P gained point 78%. Nasdaq advanced 0.61%. In short, it was a terrific outing for stocks, no matter how you feel. So let's play again. Let's talk about what's troubling in this market and what's not. Maybe that way you can figure out how to approach things because, boy, is it getting confusing. I want to start with the tariff deal the President Trump struck with the Japanese list as the largest trade deal ever, at least according to the president. Make no mistake, this was a terrific deal for both sides. There's now a 15% tariff on Japanese products, including cars. Win for the treasury, even as it raises the price of Japanese cars and trucks for you. But. But if there was no deal, it would have been almost double that. So the Japanese automakers saw their stock soar. Now look, I happen to like deals where you could take either side and still feel like you got to win. And this was one of them. I'm sure Japan would have preferred the pre Trump status quo, but this is much, much less extreme than anyone was expecting in April. I say great stuff. Bye, bye. Bye. At the same time though, if you're Fed chief Jay Powell, you're looking at the price of new cars and you have to be worried that inflation hasn't beat and it might not peak anytime soon. So what does that mean? No rate cuts. Bad stuff. Now, along with this deal is a pledge by the Japanese to invest $550 billion in the United States. Again, a very big deal because the Japanese are not really known for their buy of American merchandise. That money will go to all sorts of manufacturing, defense, semicolons, or to steel. It could be the template for other deals around the world, including Korea and most of all Europe. These kinds of deals are good news for the market because they remove the tariff uncertainty. And 50% is something most businesses can live with. What could go wrong with that? Well, we have so many pledges, so many different energies to hire here, yet we don't have nearly enough people to take the jobs. That could be very inflationary. And what happens with inflation? No rate cuts. All of these pledges will ensure that we won't have a dangerous uptick in unemployment. Although with a 4.1% unemployment rate, that's not something we need to worry about. Remember, as long as unemployment is low, that is good news for stocks. Right now, the only real source of layoffs I see is from artificial intelligence. But there are many areas where it's simply not yet good enough to replace real people. But again, when you have a tight labor market, that's likely to get tighter thanks to all these pledges. And you have a president whose hardline on immigration is then companies will have to pay up for workers. So what does that mean? We should worry about wage inflation? Different kind of inflation quickly spreads throughout the economy. We have to hope that there are plenty of robots ready to do the jobs that can't be filled. Or Chairman Powell, no rate cuts until he's done. What else? We're in the earnings season right now. We're in the thick of darn thing. And the stocks are reacting to very good numbers. Sometimes you have good numbers, they don't react. That's not the case this time. The banks set the tone with this good business. And now loan loss reserves are small again, something that happens when you have what we used to call full employment. Now we're scanning some health care and life sciences. They're all good, even if it's small. Sample Boston Scientific, Danaher, Thermo, Fisher all roared today. And then let's talk about Alphabet, parent of Google. That was the star of the after hours show, beating sales and earnings estimates and delivering strong numbers in the cloud. I even in search where there were concerns that Gemini, their AI bot, might be cannibalizing an incredibly valuable franchise. Gemini, turns out, is 450 million monthly average users. That's fantastic. One of the big reasons why the stock exploded during the conference call. Oh, on the other hand though, you got tech companies that aren't getting credit for solid numbers. IBM reported look like a nice top and bottom line beat it for the close. But because its software business came in a little light, the stock's getting clobbered in after hours trading. I'm not so sure how that right is, but it's happening. Tesla though reported top and bottom line miss yet the stock is holding up because Elon Musk told a very good story about Robo taxis as well as new cheaper models that they're supposed to come out later this year. It's a tech company now as the car business missed estimates and no one seemed to care. So I mean we have one hand on the other. I mean look, Chipotle wasn't so good tonight. T Mobile was good. I'm fine with that. You know why? Because the good does still outweigh the bad and that is very positive. At the same time though, we got to talk about something that is really starting to bug the heck out of me. Got talk about froth, froth that feels like the market for the Great recession hit in 2008 or the dot com period in 1999 or the spacing gamestop mania of 2021. Terrible role models. There are some hedge funds and followers of stocks on Reddit's Wall Street Bets forum that are set that are up to speculative things that make my stomach, well, let's say churn. I'm not talking about things like Oklahoma, the nuclear power play I've endorsed, which was this very positive in this morning's news. I'm talking about stocks like Kohl's, okay, 50% short interest that at one point doubled because of social media instigation just to bash the hapless shorts who are truly pressing their Bets here. Even with Kohl's, there's some merit. Kohl's used to trade in 50s three years ago and it received three takeover bids right in that level stock. The short busting started it was at 10 bucks, having trade as low as 6 bucks. That's too cheap. Downright embarrassing though, that so many hedge funds have been caught with their pants down. Again in a situation where there's too much short interest and not enough stock floating around to cover if something good happens. And something good could happen. Kohl's has no debt maturities for four years of any size. It has new leadership. It has a fabulous deal with Sephora. What happens if one of those acquirers comes back not a safe short? But away from Kohl's, we see things happening that if we had a tough sec, well, we would be against many one and two and three dollar stocks are getting bagged, being gunned and for all I know, being liquidated. BGL for a quick win. Yeah, I don't want to dignify them with men. I'm not even going to mention their names here, but I would say that many of these should be investigated. It just doesn't seem right. Against that we have gigantic themes that are so strong you can see how they might be moldier in nature. Take G. Vernova. We talk about that later. How taxed the workers on the grid are as they mastermind all the humongous orders for the data centers. All parts of the data centers are strong. We know that even from tonight with the numbers from Alphabet, which is putting in a lot more capex than anyone thought they would. But there are still people who are deeply suspicious of the data center buildout. They're calling it overbuilding and don't think the hyperscalers need all that computing power. Their skepticism extends any capital equipment stock and any financial services stock. Now, maybe they aren't necessarily off base. Fiserv, a fintech company, blew up today and was one nasty comedown. But you know what? People are going nuts for Alphabet today and that's going to spill over tomorrow. That stock's been a horse, the bottom line, it's mixed. Some good, some bad. You know what? When it gets all good, it will be too good. When it gets all bad, it will be too bad. Maybe right now it's just right. And we should be skeptical, but not cynical because there's too much money being made and I don't want you to leave the table. Peter in Florida. Peter, a heartfelt boyar, Mr. Grammer, longtime listener and Lifetime learner. That's fantastic. Thank you for continuously helping the average Hans in Franz to get a leg up in the game. My question is about Uber.
