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Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/30/25 - Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer | Wave AI Podcast Notes

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/30/25

Wed Jul 30 2025

Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money. Mad Money Disclaimer

Summary

Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer – Episode Summary (July 30, 2025)

Host: Jim Cramer
Podcast: Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Release Date: July 30, 2025
Duration: Approximately 46 minutes

1. Market Overview

Jim Cramer opens the episode with a critical assessment of the current market dynamics post-Federal Reserve meeting. He expresses skepticism about the market's morale, attributing mixed performances to the Fed's decision to maintain steady interest rates despite pressure for cuts.

Jim Cramer [01:43]: "The market has officially lost its mojo."

Cramer highlights the divergent performances across major indices, noting that while the Dow lost 172 points and the S&P 500 shed 0.12%, the Nasdaq gained 0.15%. He criticizes a segment of investors for expecting surprise rate cuts from the Fed and reacting negatively when they don't materialize.

2. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Cramer critiques Fed Chair Jay Powell for not signaling imminent rate cuts, which he believes could have bolstered the broader market.

Jim Cramer [02:30]: "Why didn't they? Other than televisions, I can't find anything that's retreated in price."

He delves into Powell’s cautious approach, emphasizing the strong GDP growth, robust labor market, and persistent housing market weaknesses. Cramer argues that the Fed's reluctance to cut rates stems from concerns over inflation and the broader economic uncertainty.

Jim Cramer [06:10]: "We just say the market fell apart today because the Fed seems reluctant to give us that rate cut backstop."

Cramer anticipates increased political pressure on Powell, particularly from the President, regarding monetary policy decisions.

3. Corporate Earnings Highlights

a. VF Corporation (VF Corp.) Cramer discusses VF Corp.'s impressive quarterly performance, attributing the turnaround to strategic leadership under CEO Bracken Darrell.

Jim Cramer [15:46]: "Has VF Corp. Finally gotten its groove back?"

He showcases Darrell’s commitment to revitalizing brands like Vans and The North Face, highlighting significant growth in divisions such as trail running shoes and apparel.

Bracken Darrell [16:34]: "Vans is absolutely going to be turned around."

b. Microsoft and Meta Highlighting strong earnings from tech giants, Cramer points out that companies like Microsoft and Meta are outperforming expectations, largely driven by their cloud infrastructure and AI-driven initiatives.

Jim Cramer [05:50]: "Microsoft also reported a monster top and bottom line beat with tremendous strength in their Azure cloud infrastructure business."

c. Starbucks A detailed analysis of Starbucks' latest quarterly results follows. Despite initial stock volatility, Cramer remains optimistic about the company's turnaround efforts under CEO Brian Nichols.

Jim Cramer [25:59]: "I remain a believer. I told investing club members to be a big buyer."

He praises the introduction of the Green Apron service model aimed at improving in-store efficiency and customer experience, which has shown promising results in pilot stores.

Brian Nichols [29:58]: "We're reducing the number of hours where we have minimum staffing and making sure we have the right number of partners in the right positions at the right times."

4. Listener Calls and Analysis

a. On Holdings (On Cloud Monster) A listener from Massachusetts shares concerns about a design flaw in On Holdings' shoes affecting repeat purchases. Cramer responds by expressing confidence in the company's ability to address the issue based on its track record.

Jim Cramer [09:50]: "The reason why I like the stock is that they have adjusted every time that there's been a problem."

b. Intel (INTC) Investment Inquiry Another caller from Illinois inquires about Intel's foray into the Foundry business. Cramer advises cautious optimism, acknowledging the challenges but noting the strategic shifts under the new CEO Lip Bhutan.

Jim Cramer [10:55]: "The Foundry was ill advised... It's still a little too early."

c. General Mills and Costco During the Lightning Round, Cramer addresses questions about General Mills’ pricing challenges and defends Costco’s valuation, encouraging investors to buy more shares.

Jim Cramer [33:05]: "They have input costs that cost too much... the stock is going to go down anyway."

5. Lightning Round

Cramer engages in a rapid-fire segment, offering buy, sell, or hold recommendations based on caller inquiries.

Uber: Cramer advocates for buying more shares, predicting significant growth.

Jim Cramer [43:11]: "This company should be $120... I think Uber's going to 200."
Micron (MU): He advises a cautious approach, suggesting limited purchases until DRAM pricing improves.

Jim Cramer [44:02]: "I think you buy a little bit here but we do need to see DRAM pricing go back up."
Key Stock (unspecified): Cramer expresses confidence despite current valuations.

Jim Cramer [44:38]: "They are in expansion mode... especially that 4.5% yield."

6. In-Depth Analysis: Starbucks' Turnaround Strategy

Cramer revisits Starbucks to elaborate on its strategic initiatives aimed at revitalizing the U.S. market. He underscores the positive feedback from the Green Apron pilot program and the company’s aggressive rollout plans.

Jim Cramer [30:24]: "Management's plan for improving the core business here at home... they're already showing some really promising results."

He also touches upon Starbucks' performance in international markets, particularly China, where the company is exploring potential partnerships and expansion into lower-tier cities.

Jim Cramer [34:10]: "Customers were responding to beverage innovation and new customization options."

7. Economic Insights and Final Thoughts

In his closing remarks, Cramer connects the dots between rising consumer prices, Fed policies, and corporate earnings. He attributes persistent inflation to supply chain disruptions and tariff-induced cost increases, questioning the sustainability of current business models without significant consumer-driven price adjustments.

Jim Cramer [45:20]: "Businesses exist to make money for their shareholders, so they won't cut price unless their consumers, their customers finally force them to."

He remains optimistic about select sectors, particularly technology, which continue to thrive despite broader economic challenges.

Jim Cramer [43:22]: "Businesses keep raising prices no matter what the Fed does."

Cramer concludes by encouraging listeners to focus on long-term investment strategies amidst short-term market volatility.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

Jim Cramer [01:43]: "The market has officially lost its mojo."
Jim Cramer [02:30]: "Why didn't they? Other than televisions, I can't find anything that's retreated in price."
Jim Cramer [05:50]: "Microsoft also reported a monster top and bottom line beat with tremendous strength in their Azure cloud infrastructure business."
Bracken Darrell [16:34]: "Vans is absolutely going to be turned around."
Jim Cramer [15:46]: "Has VF Corp. Finally gotten its groove back?"
Jim Cramer [25:59]: "I remain a believer. I told investing club members to be a big buyer."
Brian Nichols [29:58]: "We're reducing the number of hours where we have minimum staffing and making sure we have the right number of partners in the right positions at the right times."
Jim Cramer [43:11]: "This company should be $120... I think Uber's going to 200."
Jim Cramer [44:02]: "I think you buy a little bit here but we do need to see DRAM pricing go back up."
Jim Cramer [45:20]: "Businesses exist to make money for their shareholders, so they won't cut price unless their consumers, their customers finally force them to."

Key Takeaways

Fed Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady on interest rates amidst mixed economic indicators is causing uncertainty and affecting market sentiment.
Corporate Performances: While tech giants like Microsoft and Meta continue to excel, traditional sectors face challenges due to inflationary pressures and supply chain issues.
Strategic Turnarounds: Companies like VF Corp. and Starbucks are implementing strategic changes to rejuvenate their brands and improve operational efficiencies, showing promising early results.
Investment Recommendations: Cramer encourages investors to focus on growth sectors, remain cautious with companies facing pricing pressures, and consider long-term strategies over reacting to short-term market fluctuations.

This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and recommendations from the July 30, 2025, episode of "Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer," providing a comprehensive overview for listeners and investors alike.

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Transcript

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Jim Cramer (1:43)

Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to MAV Money. Welcome to Cramer. My friends, I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just entertain, but explain crazy days like today. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me at Jim Cramer. All right, the market has officially lost its mojo. So we're back to love and tech and just tech and not much else. That's how I feel after the Fed meeting today after broke up with Fed chief Jay Powell explaining why policy is staying the same, there won't necessarily be a rate cut on the horizon. Not happening. Most of the market could benefit from a rate cut, but it would mean very little to companies like Microsoft or Metta, two hyperscaling members of the magnificent seven vertical nation states that shot the lights out when they reported after the close that I, I always find days like today mystifying. See, there's this camp I'm going to call them an ill informed segment because I use the word stupid too many times this morning that somehow expects a surprise from the Fed. Fed like a rate cut when it's least expected, then when they don't get the surprise, what do they do sell. Which is why The Dow only lost 172 points today. S.&P shed.12%. Nasdaq actually gained.15%, though I always say to myself, what are these numskals thinking? How can they be disappointed about something we all saw coming? The ironic part is that in the wake of their selling, we have a market that doesn't seem to have any oomph to it, aside from a handful of tech giants and their fellow travelers, like it's been for so long. We just say, you know what? All we're going to get is a boatload of attacks from the President against Chairman Powell. Especially because there's no Fed meeting until September, for heaven's sake. So there's nothing can be rectified in the interim. It's just one more reason for Wall street to freak out about the Fed losing its independence over the Fed meeting. Out of the way, we're back to worrying about earnings. And today we had a new wrinkle at rankle. See, the Fed chief, so worried about cutting rates too soon, did tell us the consumer ain't as strong as she used to be and housing's weaker than it should be. And then he does nothing. Look, I totally understand why Powell wants to wait. By historical standards, it would be kind of crazy for the Fed to cut rates here. We got a healthy GDP growth and that just today. Much better than expected and maybe even accelerating when it comes to tech spend. We have a strong labor market. We have very little indication of prices coming down, even if they're not going up as fast as they used to be. We've got new tariffs that for the moment, are mostly being eaten by the companies that ship things to America. But what happens when they start passing their higher costs along to you, as they almost always do? In the end, no Fed chief wants to be the guy who cuts too early unless inflation makes a comeback. But the President's demanding rate cuts yesterday. I get that too. We have the intractable price of housing. It refuses to come down. And the possibility, just the possibility, that the consumer is truly slowing. We got weak numbers yesterday from Stanley, Black and decker, United Parcel, PayPal and Whirlpool, which makes us wonder if we might be at the beginning of a slowdown today, though no real follow up. For instance, credit card giant Visa said business is quite strong. It's hard to say if business is slowing when a $700 billion market cap. Visa is crowing about how things are looking good. Starbucks, which makes a pricey cup of Coffee, if you ask me, told us this morning the business is coming back after prolonged downturn. More on that one later. Again, it's hard to imagine that the economy is really getting worse. If that's the case, in short, the backdrop is just too darn mixed for the Fed to take action. That's also why Powell pretty much punted on that forecast. Because who knows what the heck the future is going to look like. Certainly not the Federal Reserve, which is why they're so reluctant to make a move until they know more. Yet we know the President won't let up no matter what. Even if Powell's right, what does the President care? It won't be Trump's reputation that's tarnished. If we get more inflation, it'll be pals. President's got a free hand to say whatever he wants. Powell just has a number, a quarter point, a half point or whatever. And he'll be hanged on that number if he cuts and inflation comes back. What does all of this have to do with your portfolio? I gotta tell you, I think it's a Buzzkill for about 75% of the stocks in the S&P 500. If the broader market is going to keep climbing and we wanted to so badly, I think we do need lower rates. There are whole swaths of the economy that aren't doing all that well. Mostly connected to housing, but housing punches above its weight. But that is the real battleground. If you cut short term interest rates, the rates that the Fed can trolls and there's this much strength in the economy, what would happen to the long rates that mortgage are priced off of? Would mortgage interest rates go higher? I mean will look up, they go down. We don't really know. Do you know that rates went up on the long end when the Fed cut rates last time? On the short end? Maybe we'll know more on Friday when we get the employment number. If it's weak, then the President's endless hectoring of Jay Powell might be a little more justified. But if it's strong, then we know there won't be any rate cuts from the Fed to help the stock market go higher than that. But remember, we're talking about the broader stock market. Let's talk about the stock market that continue to just climb like mad. See, we have to revert to individual tech stocks. And if you aren't. Look, if you're just in an index fund, you can pivot right now to buy what's really smoking. And tonight we found that the smoke's coming from Metta and Microsoft coming in earnings. The street was worried that Mark Zuckerberg might be paying too much for talent but but when we looked at the numbers we had to laugh. Like a great baseball team owner, Zuckerberg can overpay all he wants. Met is winning the championships for these numbers which were sharply better than even the most bullish of Meta's amen chorus. Plus they gave us an amazingly strong forecast, much higher than expected revenue with their capital expenditure budget coming in at the low end. Of course what does that have to do with the Fed, right? Meanwhile, Microsoft also reported a monster top and bottom line beat with tremendous strength in in their Azure cloud infrastructure business. Many people think that's the most important division where growth accelerated from 35% to 39% in just three months. This is a huge business. That's incredible. Their business is on fire to the scale of the sales and earnings be here were pretty staggering. I am shocked at the strength we're seeing here. Microsoft, like matter, is spending fortunes on hardware and software and it just keeps paying off. As always, we have to wait until the Microsoft earnings call, which is ongoing, to get the company's forecast and thus the full story. But the numbers that reported for this quarter, they are incredible. But these two core magnificent seven companies do not relate much to anything that Jay Powell is talking about as I call them. They are nation states of their own. Aside from these heavy hitters and companies like in video that helped them accomplish these astonishing results. You can't get the rest of the market moving up without some sign that the Fed will backstop us. Maybe we shouldn't even care. The bottom line, I think this market fell apart today because the Fed seems reluctant to give us that rate cut backstop. I didn't get the sense of the so called inevitability of rate cuts that I felt from the last two Fed meetings. Judging by the action, not many others did either. But you know what? After the close, maybe Microsoft and that set us all. All right, let's go to Sam in Massachusetts. Sam.

Jim Cramer (25:59)

What do we make of these numbers that Starbucks reported last night? This is the stock tumbled in after hours trading, then it shot up to $97 at the Open then plunged again to $90 less than an hour later for rebounding to finish the day effectively flat. They've given you the full roller coaster experience over the past 24 hours. Even though the headline numbers were weaker than expected, I found the overall results to be pretty encouraging. Keep in mind, Starbucks has been a long term holding for my charitable trust. Not always a good holding. But for the past year, ever since they poached Brian Nichol from Chipotle to take over as CEO, stock's been doing much better. Brian orchestrated an incredible turnaround Chipotle. And I think you can do the same at Starbucks. That's why the Stock jumped almost 25% on the day it was higher. The stock kept climbing till this March when everybody started worrying about tariffs and the fact that the turn might be more difficult than first thought. Which is why the stock plunged to the high 70s in April for ultimately rebounding to the low 90s as of today. Throughout this period, we've stuck with Starbucks because I believe Brian can deliver another turnaround here. He's got a plan to solve the throughput problem. This is a chain with too many customers, so they need to be able to process your orders more quickly. Quickly with the goal of less than four minutes. He's also trying to improve the in store experience, getting back to the Starbucks of old, the old third place between home and office. Along the way though, the numbers, let's say they've been pretty choppy. When the company reported in late April, they posted a top and bottom line miss with some of their worst numbers coming from the United States business, sparking fears that the turnaround could be further out than we thought. Now look, I remain a believer. I told investing club members to be a big buyer, but things did feel pretty grim. Fast forward to last night when Starbucks reported again. This time the headline numbers were a bit disappointing. With global same store sales down 2%, Wall street was looking for a 1.3% decline. Even though the revenue came in higher than expected, their earnings seemed to come in soft. With Starbucks earning $0.50 per share, Wall street was looking for $0.65. However, much of that miss was actually from one off items like a tax charge and an expensive leadership meeting. Well, expensive, but I think it paid off. Without those, the company would have earned 61 cents per share. Still a miss, but a much smaller one. When those numbers first crossed the wire right after the close, the stock plunged as people figured oh, here we go, another weak quarter. But then it quickly bounced back as investors spent more time looking at the quarter first off, people saw through the confusing earnings numbers, realizing that the miss wasn't as bad as they thought. Second, while Starbucks had weak global same stories store sales there are also some very encouraging signs in certain regions. North America, which had been a real problem area, came in better than expected with the US specifically in line with expectations, not missing the estimates as it did the previous quarter. China, previously the worst region for Starbucks, was also a relative bright spot with Same store sales up 2% driven by a 6% increase in transactions. The disappointment here came from the rest of the international business which had flat comps. Geez. Wall street was looking for 2.2% uptick. It had been a really good area, not great. But management's been focused on turning around the domestic business first and they seem to be making progress on that front even better. When the conference call got going last night, Nicol and his team gave us many more reasons to feel optimistic. He devoted a significant portion of his prepared remarks to the company's Green Apron service operating model, which is basically their plan to improve improve the in store experience here in America. Starbucks began testing this model in 1500 stores eight weeks ago. That's all eight weeks. But Nichols said that the partner feedback has been tremendous with these 1500 stores seeing improvements in transactions, sales and customer service times given the success they've had so far. Nichols said that Starbucks plans to begin scaling up the Green Apron service across all of US stores starting in mid August. That is well ahead of their original schedule and very bullish and why I think at the very beginning the call, he said they're ahead of scared now. This morning when I spoke to Brian on Squawk on the street, he gave us a more complete rundown on Green Apron. Listen to this.

Jim Cramer (30:24)

That's what I found most encouraging about the Starbucks quarter management's plan for improving the core business here at home. They're already showing some really promising results, so much so that the company's accelerating that rollout of their new model. At the end of the day, nothing else matters for Starbucks if it can't turn the US business around. Now they've gotten a proven way to make that happen. There was plenty of other positive news too, like the solid performance in China where Nichols said customers were responding to beverage innovation and new customization options. While Starbucks has been really ruthless about keeping prices low for non coffee items. He also gave a strategic update on whether they might sell that Chinese business, saying that Starbucks has, quote, received significant, significant interest from more than 20 interested parties and we're evaluating options, end quote. Though he stressed that the company remains committed to keeping some of the China business, he wants to retain a meaningful stake in it. They do want to go down to the third and fourth tier cities. That's very important. Nikkei also offered a walk around the globe touching on some other key international markets and the commentary was much more promising than the disappointing overall international Same store sales number again. I felt better putting it all together. I think it was a very positive quarter even if the stock was all over the map today. I didn't want to take my cue from the stock and see more. It seemed to have more to do with the Federal Reserve. Well, that's a little ridiculous. But don't worry about these short term swings which were kind of a microcosm of the stock's whole first year. Under Nicholas leadership focus on what matters the long term turnaround plan which is going well ahead of schedule. The bottom line, if Brian Nicholls keeps delivering on the turnaround front, I bet Starbucks and its shareholders will be huge with winners. That's still my expectation here and I feel even better about it tonight than I did last night before the company reported. Let's take some calls. Let's go to Andre in Louisiana. Andre.

Jim Cramer (33:08)

Yeah, I've gone from here to here. Meaning no, not much stance changed at all. Here's the problem. This is one of those companies that frankly is part of what I talk about as being in the heart of the inflation complex. They've got food that costs too much, they have input costs that cost too much. And they're going to have to sacrifice their profit margin and bring their food price down or else they're not going to do the business that they used to do. And no one wants to cut their margins. They're afraid about what will happen in the stock market. But all that's going to happen is the stock is going to go down anyway. All right. If Starbucks keeps delivering on the turnaround equal promise today, I think this stock could get a double shot of a boost. Now there's much more money ahead, including my exclusively data center player Vertif. Could Wall street be underestimating the power of the AI build out especially for the earnings we saw tonight? I'm getting the latest from the CEO and the consumer still feeling this pinch from high prices. So what is it really going to take for companies to ease up at the register? Like I just mentioned with General Mills, I'm going to give you my take and all your calls. Rapid fire in tonight's edition of the Lightning round. So stay with Kramer this morning. We got some excellent results from Vertiv holdings. That's the maker of specialized power and cooling equipment for the data center which has been a phenomenal winner over the past few years. The company reported numbers that came in well ahead of expectations in nearly every line. Sales up 35% year over year. 12 cent earnings beat off an 83 cent basis. Even better, Vert have issued a strong outlook for the current quarter and raised its full year forecast. It's very strong backlog too. However, after being up nearly $11 at one point today, that's like 8% in early trading. The stock gave back essentially all those gains throughout the course of today's trading session. But like I said at this top of the day of the show, what mattered is the Fed and that somehow interfered even with this great company. I'm not too worried because this feels like a normal profit taking day in a stock that at its highs was up 186% from its post liberation day lows. But still, let's take a closer look with Jill. Alberto is the CEO of Vertif. Holdings and it's great to have you back, Gio. Welcome to Mad Money.

Jim Cramer (45:20)

Everything's changed since COVID but we just keep acting like it has. We are always surprised when we hear that higher prices are hurting demand and a company isn't doing that well. That's how I felt about the plummeting price of Chipotle stock. I was checking it out after talking with Brian Nichol, the current CEO of Starbucks who came over from Chipotle about a year ago. When Brian left the stock was at 56, the S&P 500 was at 5, 6, 4, 8. Now the stocks at 43 and change while the S&P is at 6362. Well, what's happened here? It's not the in store experience but it's the same place it was always. It's just gotten a lot more expensive. With the aid of one of the generative AI platforms which source from social media posts and various media reports we can see that from 2019 till now the price of a chicken burrito with Chipotle has gone from around seven bucks to the low double digits. A steak burrito is nearly doubled in that time frame. It's in the low to Mid teens, Carnitas is up 25 to 50%, yet a bowl with guac. So it's going from the low double digits to the low 20s. And look, I'm not trying to pick on Chipotle, and I recognize those prices are all over the map, given their crowdsourced nature. So many restaurants, so many kinds of stores, so many homes, so much entertainment, all is the same problem. But to not relate Chipotle's stock price to these, price stock to these. What's happening with the prices? Well, that's just fanciful. The consumer is just paying a lot more. Nobody likes that. Which brings me to the Federal Reserve and its decision to hold off on cutting rates. I think they're worried about another round of price increases, this time from the tariffs, not from COVID Normally at this point in the business cycle, we expect a wholesale lowering of prices as companies try to get their sales to reignite, even at the cost of profits. Much harder for that to happen if all our imports are about to be roughly 15% more expensive. Doesn't help that we have a 3% GDP growth and a very low unemployment rate. There's no way prices are coming down with that backdrop. Now, I know there's a tendency to blame all this on politics, and I don't want that here. You can point to Biden's deficit spending or Trump's tariffs and unfunded tax cuts. I don't care. I think it misses the real issue because the whole world had elevated and inflation since the pandemic. In reality, Covid led to a lot of scarcity, a lot of supply chain problems that caused prices to rise. And once we got over the pandemic, well, guess what? Businesses kept their prices up. They should have lowered them. Why didn't they? Other than televisions, I can't find anything that's retreated in price. Just some things that didn't go up as much as others. All that said, relatively high interest rates haven't done much to push prices back down. I can see why President Trump wants rate cuts. All presidents want lower rates. They're usually just more subtle about it. Lower rates could theoretically lower the price of housing, which is a huge portion of a family's budget. And lower rates will save money. However, homes might go higher in price because of more robust demand from lower rates. And it's hard to see how lowering the cost of borrowing will lower the price of goods that have just been marked up by tariffs. No, the only thing that will get prices down is a strike by you, the consumer, a strike that simply hasn't happened. You need people to stop going to expensive entertainment events. You need them to stop shopping anywhere besides Wal Mart and Costco. When there been spire strikes like you've seen at Lulu or perhaps Chipotle, there is pressure to cut price, but Wall street doesn't want companies to do that. Wall street wants higher prices and better sales. Even as we keep realizing how impossible that combination has become in this new environment. I think it's why we tend to look at other sectors, especially tech, where pricing isn't a factor, as witnessed by the blowout numbers this very evening from Microsoft and Metta. Right now though, as long as people keep buying from these companies, they'll keep raising prices no matter what the Fed does. I'm not saying that everyone's price gouging, no, I'm just saying that businesses exist to make money for their shareholders, so they won't cut price unless their consumers, their customers finally force them to. Luckily in some cases that's already happening, but it's just not happening fast enough to allow the Fed to restart the rate cut engine. Like I said, as always, bull market somewhere in a pound side just for you right here on Mad Money, I'm Jim Cramer. See you tomorrow.